2014 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Cleveland / Minnesota / New York AL / Philadelphia / San Diego / St. Louis.

Batters
Last year’s ZiPS WAR projection for very strong outfielder Giancarlo Stanton was quite high (6.4, precisely) for someone so young. This year’s ZiPS WAR projection is also quite high (4.2, in this case) for someone so young, but also likely to be regarded as a disappointment relative to last year’s figure. The primary reason for the decline — namely, Stanton’s 500 most recent plate appearances — isn’t a mystery. Still, given the choice, one prefers a more, and not less, productive Giancarlo Stanton, probably.

Elsewhere around the diamond, one finds that the Marlins aren’t without talent. In fact, a glut of promising outfielders means that one from the triumvirate of Jake Marisnick, Marcell Ozuna, and Christian Yelich will likely be without a starting job at the beginning of the season. None of that group project to be stars in 2014, but all three are both (a) projected to be worth at least a win and also (b) either 23 years old or younger.

Finally, I’ll note — primarily because he’s a learned gentleman — that Ed Lucas is likely also to play some part in the Marlins infield, even if ZiPS isn’t entirely enthusiastic about what he’ll do there.

Pitchers
It’s not surprising — owing predominantly how to he’s capable of doing this — to find that ZiPS is optimistic about Jose Fernandez in 2014. If the total WAR projection appears a bit low to the reader (4.5, in this case), it’s due mainly to the conservative innings projections (154.0), probably. There’s a logic to the projection, though, of course — namely, that Fernandez has never thrown more than the 172.2 innings he recorded in 2013, and has, in fact, certainly thrown fewer innings than that in a season.

Not included here are two projections in which there might be some interest — namely, those belonging to relievers Carter Capps and Ryan Webb. The former is absent because the author has sent only a belated email to Dan Szymborksi informing him of the absence; the latter, however, isn’t the author’s fault, at all, but rather the Marlins’, because they non-tendered him and now he’s with Baltimore.

Bench/Prospects
Besides the aforementioned group of promising outfielders, Miami also features a couple catching prospects (Austin Barnes and J.T. Realmuto) who appear to be candidates to produce at something not worse than replacement level. The club also currently possesses what the author is prepared to call a panoply of young, upwardly mobile pitching prospects: Adam Conley (0.9 zWAR), Anthony DeSclafani (0.7), Brian Flynn (1.1), Andrew Heaney (1.1), Justin Nicolino (0.8).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Miami, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Giancarlo Stanton	R	24	RF	553	77	122	28	2	33	76	4	2
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	29	C	429	50	94	24	1	15	48	2	1
Christian Yelich	L	22	LF	530	71	123	25	6	13	51	15	6
Jake Marisnick	R	23	CF	510	56	115	21	6	10	48	15	8
J.T. Realmuto	R	23	C	470	52	104	20	3	7	42	8	3
Casey McGehee	R	31	3B	498	50	112	25	1	12	54	0	2
Marcell Ozuna	R	23	RF	463	61	110	24	5	14	61	7	2
Austin Barnes	R	24	C	538	58	118	22	3	5	41	5	2
Donovan Solano	R	26	2B	478	47	114	20	3	4	39	5	1
Rob Brantly	L	24	C	449	37	102	21	1	6	40	1	2
Matt Angle	L	28	CF	507	60	106	15	5	4	37	19	4
Brian Bogusevic	L	30	RF	468	54	100	18	3	10	42	15	3
Derek Dietrich	L	24	2B	567	68	122	27	5	16	60	4	3
Rafael Furcal	B	36	SS	363	46	84	14	2	5	28	9	3
Brent Keys	L	23	LF	502	62	132	16	2	3	38	13	9
Miguel Olivo	R	35	C	258	28	57	10	1	10	29	3	3
Placido Polanco	R	38	3B	356	31	85	13	0	1	20	1	0
Adeiny Hechavarria	R	25	SS	621	52	143	21	7	6	51	11	8
Juan Diaz	B	25	SS	548	53	120	22	2	7	45	4	2
Garrett Jones	L	33	1B	463	51	102	24	2	17	57	3	1
Matt Downs	R	30	2B	291	32	62	12	1	8	30	2	3
Jeff Mathis	R	31	C	274	23	50	12	1	6	29	1	0
Casey Kotchman	L	31	1B	336	30	79	13	1	6	37	1	0
Ed Lucas	R	32	3B	512	55	109	20	1	7	40	3	2
Zack Cox	L	25	3B	457	43	104	21	2	5	38	1	1
Gil Velazquez	R	34	SS	430	42	94	11	1	2	26	5	6
Juan Pierre	L	36	LF	447	53	111	12	3	1	20	30	9
Austin Kearns	R	34	RF	138	15	26	4	0	2	5	1	1
Matt Diaz	R	36	LF	152	15	35	7	0	1	13	3	0
Wilson Valdez	R	36	SS	196	18	43	7	1	1	15	3	1
Kyle Jensen	R	26	RF	543	60	106	23	1	19	59	3	2
Kyle Skipworth	L	24	C	393	40	71	14	2	12	38	0	2
Koyie Hill	B	35	C	212	18	40	9	0	2	13	1	0
Mark Canha	R	25	1B	468	52	97	22	2	9	45	3	2
Jimmy Paredes	B	25	RF	576	67	136	28	6	9	53	24	11
Chris Gutierrez	R	30	SS	435	40	83	16	2	2	30	3	3
Nick Green	R	35	SS	370	35	74	16	1	7	33	1	2
Chris Coghlan	L	29	LF	369	37	80	17	3	4	26	6	4
Audy Ciriaco	R	27	SS	369	37	80	13	3	7	33	7	4
Greg Dobbs	L	35	3B	308	25	69	13	1	4	30	2	1
Jordan Brown	L	30	1B	416	38	99	22	1	4	37	1	2
Joe Mahoney	L	27	1B	390	34	84	18	1	7	37	3	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton	553	12.7%	28.6%	.276	.311	.257	.358	.533	.377
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	429	8.6%	28.9%	.183	.313	.242	.308	.424	.318
Christian Yelich	530	9.4%	25.8%	.159	.334	.258	.328	.417	.329
Jake Marisnick	510	4.9%	22.5%	.135	.304	.247	.300	.382	.299
J.T. Realmuto	470	6.2%	18.1%	.109	.283	.242	.294	.351	.287
Casey McGehee	498	8.4%	22.1%	.140	.300	.249	.311	.389	.306
Marcell Ozuna	463	5.4%	23.5%	.176	.309	.255	.299	.431	.319
Austin Barnes	538	8.2%	17.5%	.090	.294	.246	.316	.335	.292
Donovan Solano	478	5.2%	16.5%	.086	.305	.259	.304	.345	.285
Rob Brantly	449	5.1%	16.9%	.098	.282	.243	.286	.341	.273
Matt Angle	507	7.7%	23.1%	.082	.304	.234	.301	.316	.278
Brian Bogusevic	468	9.0%	23.1%	.129	.297	.238	.314	.367	.307
Derek Dietrich	567	5.3%	25.2%	.164	.292	.235	.293	.399	.302
Rafael Furcal	363	7.4%	12.7%	.100	.282	.255	.314	.356	.296
Brent Keys	502	7.4%	9.2%	.064	.315	.289	.344	.353	.308
Miguel Olivo	258	3.9%	27.5%	.171	.283	.233	.261	.404	.283
Placido Polanco	356	5.1%	7.6%	.049	.279	.261	.309	.310	.275
Adeiny Hechavarria	621	4.8%	18.2%	.091	.294	.246	.282	.337	.269
Juan Diaz	548	5.5%	26.3%	.092	.312	.235	.279	.327	.268
Garrett Jones	463	8.2%	23.3%	.189	.284	.243	.305	.432	.320
Matt Downs	291	6.2%	20.6%	.142	.269	.232	.289	.375	.291
Jeff Mathis	274	6.2%	30.7%	.129	.275	.202	.254	.331	.249
Casey Kotchman	336	6.8%	11.0%	.108	.277	.258	.319	.366	.302
Ed Lucas	512	6.1%	22.9%	.091	.292	.231	.283	.323	.268
Zack Cox	457	6.1%	24.3%	.095	.320	.246	.298	.340	.283
Gil Velazquez	430	7.7%	16.7%	.049	.292	.244	.304	.293	.263
Juan Pierre	447	4.5%	6.9%	.051	.292	.272	.315	.324	.285
Austin Kearns	138	10.9%	26.8%	.084	.300	.218	.326	.303	.291
Matt Diaz	152	5.3%	17.8%	.070	.296	.246	.289	.317	.271
Wilson Valdez	196	4.6%	15.3%	.066	.276	.236	.271	.302	.248
Kyle Jensen	543	7.7%	35.5%	.167	.309	.216	.285	.384	.294
Kyle Skipworth	393	5.6%	36.6%	.148	.280	.195	.247	.342	.255
Koyie Hill	212	5.2%	26.9%	.076	.271	.202	.243	.278	.229
Mark Canha	468	8.3%	25.2%	.128	.300	.234	.307	.361	.296
Jimmy Paredes	576	4.2%	23.3%	.123	.314	.250	.283	.373	.287
Chris Gutierrez	435	8.0%	23.0%	.067	.279	.213	.285	.279	.253
Nick Green	370	4.3%	23.5%	.114	.268	.217	.262	.331	.259
Chris Coghlan	369	8.4%	16.8%	.106	.284	.242	.310	.347	.288
Audy Ciriaco	369	3.5%	21.4%	.114	.273	.228	.258	.342	.263
Greg Dobbs	308	5.8%	16.6%	.096	.281	.245	.293	.340	.272
Jordan Brown	416	4.6%	13.2%	.093	.284	.254	.290	.347	.277
Joe Mahoney	390	3.8%	27.2%	.111	.297	.228	.262	.340	.263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton	553	6.9	141	3	4.2	Mark McGwire
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	429	4.6	98	-3	2.0	Pete LaForest
Christian Yelich	530	5.1	103	5	2.0	Daryl Sconiers
Jake Marisnick	510	4.1	86	3	1.4	Shawn Garrett
J.T. Realmuto	470	3.7	76	1	1.4	Matt Sinatro
Casey McGehee	498	4.3	91	-1	1.2	Scott Seabol
Marcell Ozuna	463	4.7	97	3	1.2	Pat Lennon
Austin Barnes	538	3.8	79	-6	1.1	Koyie Hill
Donovan Solano	478	3.9	78	4	0.9	Juan Melo
Rob Brantly	449	3.4	71	0	0.8	Jason Hill
Matt Angle	507	3.6	70	4	0.8	Andres Torres
Brian Bogusevic	468	4.3	86	3	0.8	Keith Hughes
Derek Dietrich	567	4.1	88	-5	0.8	Russ Mitchell
Rafael Furcal	363	4.1	84	-4	0.7	Omar Vizquel
Brent Keys	502	4.5	92	-1	0.5	Tim Leiper
Miguel Olivo	258	3.6	79	-1	0.5	Joe Oliver
Placido Polanco	356	3.5	71	3	0.4	Roy McMillan
Adeiny Hechavarria	621	3.3	69	0	0.4	Eddie Zosky
Juan Diaz	548	3.2	66	0	0.3	John Hotchkiss
Garrett Jones	463	4.7	99	-3	0.2	Henry Rodriguez
Matt Downs	291	3.6	80	-2	0.2	Mike Bell
Jeff Mathis	274	2.9	59	1	0.2	Kevin Brown
Casey Kotchman	336	4.3	88	0	0.0	Jim Rushford
Ed Lucas	512	3.2	66	1	0.0	Jason Wood
Zack Cox	457	3.6	75	-4	-0.1	Marty Wilkerson
Gil Velazquez	430	3.0	65	-2	-0.1	Gene Michael
Juan Pierre	447	4.1	76	-1	-0.1	Tony Womack
Austin Kearns	138	3.3	74	-2	-0.3	Tom Wilson
Matt Diaz	152	3.5	67	-1	-0.4	Brian Jordan
Wilson Valdez	196	3.0	57	-2	-0.4	Alfredo Griffin
Kyle Jensen	543	3.8	82	-4	-0.4	John Sellick
Kyle Skipworth	393	2.7	60	-5	-0.4	Gary Tremblay
Koyie Hill	212	2.3	43	-1	-0.4	Frank Charles
Mark Canha	468	3.9	83	-1	-0.5	Jeremy Slayden
Jimmy Paredes	576	3.8	78	-1	-0.5	Jason Repko
Chris Gutierrez	435	2.7	56	-2	-0.5	Keith Johns
Nick Green	370	2.9	62	-5	-0.6	Pete Mackanin
Chris Coghlan	369	3.8	80	-4	-0.6	Bubba Carpenter
Audy Ciriaco	369	3.1	63	-6	-0.6	Erick Monzon
Greg Dobbs	308	3.6	73	-7	-0.7	Manny Trillo
Jordan Brown	416	3.6	74	-1	-1.1	Daryle Ward
Joe Mahoney	390	3.1	64	-2	-1.6	Phil Geisler

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jose Fernandez	R	21	27	27	154.0	163	54	9	117	47	44
Henderson Alvarez	R	24	25	25	148.3	78	40	12	153	70	65
Nathan Eovaldi	R	24	26	25	134.3	93	52	12	137	65	61
Jacob Turner	R	23	28	28	157.3	98	67	16	160	81	76
Andrew Heaney	L	23	24	24	133.0	96	52	14	134	67	63
Brian Flynn	L	24	28	28	155.7	103	62	14	164	81	76
Steve Cishek	R	28	63	0	64.0	67	23	4	53	21	20
Adam Conley	L	24	26	25	125.3	89	53	11	128	65	61
Justin Nicolino	L	22	27	25	127.3	75	38	12	138	67	63
Anthony DeSclafani	R	24	27	24	123.0	78	35	14	134	65	61
A.J. Ramos	R	27	68	0	75.7	79	37	6	63	31	29
Kevin Slowey	R	30	17	13	81.7	57	17	10	89	42	39
Wade LeBlanc	L	29	34	20	130.0	89	43	15	140	70	65
Tom Koehler	R	28	30	26	146.3	102	70	17	150	80	75
Jose Urena	R	22	27	25	138.7	81	41	17	152	76	71
Mike Dunn	L	29	72	0	63.3	67	30	5	55	26	24
Brad Hand	L	24	25	22	112.7	91	64	14	110	62	58
Sam Dyson	R	26	33	16	103.3	47	42	6	114	56	52
Duane Below	L	28	24	14	90.3	50	35	9	97	49	46
Michael Brady	R	27	51	0	54.3	44	14	5	54	25	23
Jose Ceda	R	27	23	0	25.0	26	11	2	22	11	10
Dan Jennings	L	27	61	0	64.0	52	30	5	61	30	28
Arquimedes Caminero	R	27	48	0	53.0	48	24	5	50	26	24
Grant Dayton	L	26	38	0	55.0	53	26	6	52	27	25
Steven Ames	R	26	49	0	54.7	42	20	5	55	27	25
Zach Phillips	L	27	53	0	60.0	47	33	5	59	30	28
Jonathan Albaladejo	R	31	53	0	64.3	49	28	7	65	33	31
Jesus Sanchez	R	26	51	0	66.3	40	27	6	69	34	32
Juan Sosa	R	24	44	3	80.0	59	42	8	81	44	41
John Maine	R	33	8	6	34.7	23	21	5	38	22	21
Alex Sanabia	R	25	14	14	72.3	40	25	11	83	45	42
Chris Hatcher	R	29	57	0	63.7	48	32	7	65	35	33
Rett Varner	R	26	32	12	85.0	46	38	11	96	52	49
Adam Reifer	R	28	32	0	36.3	24	22	4	38	22	21
Edgar Olmos	L	24	44	0	54.0	31	39	5	58	33	31
Angel Sanchez	R	24	25	23	121.3	83	64	20	135	82	77

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jose Fernandez	154.0	633	25.8%	8.5%	.270	2.57	2.87	67	74
Henderson Alvarez	148.3	638	12.3%	6.2%	.282	3.94	4.02	102	104
Nathan Eovaldi	134.3	591	15.7%	8.7%	.289	4.09	4.09	106	106
Jacob Turner	157.3	700	14.0%	9.6%	.282	4.35	4.50	113	117
Andrew Heaney	133.0	586	16.3%	8.9%	.290	4.26	4.42	111	115
Brian Flynn	155.7	693	14.9%	9.0%	.296	4.39	4.36	114	113
Steve Cishek	64.0	268	25.1%	8.5%	.288	2.81	2.72	73	71
Adam Conley	125.3	557	16.0%	9.5%	.296	4.38	4.36	114	113
Justin Nicolino	127.3	558	13.5%	6.8%	.296	4.45	4.26	116	111
Anthony DeSclafani	123.0	539	14.5%	6.5%	.299	4.46	4.37	116	113
A.J. Ramos	75.7	327	24.2%	11.3%	.284	3.45	3.57	90	93
Kevin Slowey	81.7	351	16.1%	5.0%	.300	4.30	4.05	112	105
Wade LeBlanc	130.0	573	15.5%	7.5%	.297	4.50	4.33	117	112
Tom Koehler	146.3	658	15.5%	10.6%	.287	4.61	4.72	120	123
Jose Urena	138.7	609	13.3%	6.7%	.293	4.61	4.58	120	119
Mike Dunn	63.3	274	24.5%	10.8%	.287	3.41	3.32	89	86
Brad Hand	112.7	512	17.8%	12.5%	.286	4.63	4.88	120	127
Sam Dyson	103.3	467	10.0%	9.1%	.296	4.53	4.40	118	114
Duane Below	90.3	404	12.4%	8.8%	.291	4.58	4.54	119	118
Michael Brady	54.3	231	19.1%	6.1%	.296	3.81	3.69	99	96
Jose Ceda	25.0	108	24.1%	10.5%	.289	3.60	3.56	94	92
Dan Jennings	64.0	284	18.2%	10.7%	.293	3.94	3.89	102	101
Arquimedes Caminero	53.0	233	20.6%	10.4%	.293	4.08	4.23	106	110
Grant Dayton	55.0	243	22.0%	10.7%	.298	4.09	4.16	106	108
Steven Ames	54.7	240	17.5%	8.5%	.297	4.12	4.01	107	104
Zach Phillips	60.0	271	17.5%	12.1%	.296	4.20	4.17	109	108
Jonathan Albaladejo	64.3	286	17.0%	9.9%	.294	4.34	4.26	113	111
Jesus Sanchez	66.3	295	13.6%	9.1%	.289	4.34	4.46	113	116
Juan Sosa	80.0	363	16.4%	11.7%	.293	4.61	4.65	120	121
John Maine	34.7	163	13.9%	13.0%	.298	5.45	5.41	142	141
Alex Sanabia	72.3	325	12.4%	7.7%	.294	5.23	5.11	136	133
Chris Hatcher	63.7	288	16.7%	11.1%	.296	4.66	4.61	121	120
Rett Varner	85.0	389	11.9%	9.7%	.296	5.19	5.17	135	134
Adam Reifer	36.3	169	14.1%	13.1%	.287	5.20	5.31	135	138
Edgar Olmos	54.0	259	12.1%	15.0%	.294	5.17	5.46	134	142
Angel Sanchez	121.3	563	14.7%	11.4%	.296	5.71	5.64	148	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jose Fernandez	154.0	9.54	3.14	0.53	151	4.5	Rich Harden
Henderson Alvarez	148.3	4.75	2.42	0.72	99	1.8	Joe Coleman
Nathan Eovaldi	134.3	6.21	3.46	0.80	95	1.4	Robert Averette
Jacob Turner	157.3	5.62	3.86	0.91	89	1.2	Jay North
Andrew Heaney	133.0	6.47	3.55	0.94	91	1.1	Dennis Cook
Brian Flynn	155.7	5.97	3.59	0.83	89	1.1	Randy Flores
Steve Cishek	64.0	9.45	3.19	0.54	138	1.0	Danny Kolb
Adam Conley	125.3	6.41	3.81	0.82	89	0.9	Jeff Kaiser
Justin Nicolino	127.3	5.33	2.69	0.86	87	0.8	Greg Hibbard
Anthony DeSclafani	123.0	5.71	2.58	1.02	87	0.7	Mike Lincoln
A.J. Ramos	75.7	9.42	4.40	0.72	113	0.6	Jim Stoops
Kevin Slowey	81.7	6.24	1.92	1.06	90	0.6	Brian Tollberg
Wade LeBlanc	130.0	6.13	2.98	1.03	86	0.6	Brian Abraham
Tom Koehler	146.3	6.28	4.28	1.02	84	0.6	Michael Smith
Jose Urena	138.7	5.26	2.64	1.08	84	0.6	J.D. Smart
Mike Dunn	63.3	9.55	4.21	0.77	114	0.6	Armando Almanza
Brad Hand	112.7	7.28	5.12	1.09	84	0.4	Rick VandenHurk
Sam Dyson	103.3	4.05	3.69	0.56	86	0.4	Marino Pieretti
Duane Below	90.3	5.00	3.53	0.87	85	0.3	Chris Cumberland
Michael Brady	54.3	7.31	2.34	0.91	102	0.2	Heath Bost
Jose Ceda	25.0	9.38	4.08	0.73	108	0.2	Charlie Hough
Dan Jennings	64.0	7.26	4.26	0.64	99	0.1	Matt Dunbar
Arquimedes Caminero	53.0	8.13	4.10	0.92	95	0.0	Tom Shearn
Grant Dayton	55.0	8.72	4.26	0.97	95	0.0	Jesus Pena
Steven Ames	54.7	6.89	3.35	0.83	94	0.0	Andy Larkin
Zach Phillips	60.0	7.12	4.91	0.69	93	-0.1	Kevin Tolar
Jonathan Albaladejo	64.3	6.80	3.96	0.93	90	-0.2	Marcus Gwyn
Jesus Sanchez	66.3	5.43	3.63	0.80	90	-0.2	Scott Munter
Juan Sosa	80.0	6.69	4.77	0.86	84	-0.2	Willie Eyre
John Maine	34.7	5.91	5.50	1.17	71	-0.2	Alan Benes
Alex Sanabia	72.3	5.01	3.09	1.38	74	-0.2	Brandon Emanuel
Chris Hatcher	63.7	6.82	4.53	1.00	83	-0.4	Rick Greene
Rett Varner	85.0	4.91	3.99	1.16	75	-0.4	Kevin Vent
Adam Reifer	36.3	5.92	5.49	1.05	75	-0.5	Brad Tweedlie
Edgar Olmos	54.0	5.20	6.48	0.81	75	-0.7	Brian Adams
Angel Sanchez	121.3	6.15	4.75	1.46	68	-1.1	Mike Romano

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.