2014 ZiPS Projections – Milwaukee Brewers

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Milwaukee Brewers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
The computer math which informs these ZiPS projections doesn’t know that Ryan Braun was charged, during the 2011-12 offseason, of using PEDs; that he successfully appealed what would have been a 50-game suspension; that he was then named in documents belonging to Biogenesis of America; that he (i.e. still Braun) attributed the appearance of his name in those documents to how his legal counsel had retained Anthony Bosch, the clinic’s operator, as a consultant; or that he then agreed to serve a 65-game suspension last season. The figures here are based on the combination of variables Szymborski generally uses to produce projections: past performance, aging, etc. They reveal no insight beyond that.

What the ZiPS projections below do reveal, however, is how, very quickly and sadly, Rickie Weeks appears to have become a mediocre player, already. In just 2011, Weeks produced a three-win season; the year before that, nearly a six-win one. Now he’s in very real danger of losing his job entirely to Scooter Gennett — a modestly skilled player, Gennett, but without the impressive physical tools that defined Weeks at his best.

Pitchers
Generally speaking, an average starting pitcher — either that or a top-10 reliever, one or the other — produces about a 2.0 WAR in a full season’s worth of work. That precisely zero Brewer pitchers crossed the two-win threshold in 2013, then, must surely be regarded as somewhat distressing — and an integral part of that team’s difficulties. That three pitchers (Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, and Marco Estrada) are projected to cross the two-win mark in 2014, however, suggests that this a club likely bound for some positive regression.

Of some interest is how manager Ron Roenicke might fill the fifth-spot in the Milwaukee rotation. Reports suggests that right-hander Tyler Thornburg will be given the first opportunity to solidify it. The numbers, meanwhile, suggest that offseason acquisition Will Smith is probably the superior option.

Bench/Prospects
The hitting and pitching prospects most ready to play in the majors leagues, according to ZiPS, are corner-infielder Nick Delmonico and right-hander Jimmy Nelson, respectively. The former was acquired from Baltimore last year in a midseason trade for Francisco Rodriguez. Both scouting reports and also his fielding projection here suggest that third base might not be his defensive home forever-ever. Nelson, meanwhile, sat at about 93 mph with his fastball in his lone major-league start last season, in September.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Milwaukee-ers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Ryan Braun	R	30	LF	664	99	178	36	4	33	116	22	7
Carlos Gomez	R	28	CF	491	69	116	21	6	19	58	32	6
Jonathan Lucroy	R	28	C	506	53	127	21	4	15	75	7	1
Jean Segura	R	24	SS	580	70	154	21	9	12	59	35	10
Aramis Ramirez	R	36	3B	459	57	114	26	1	18	74	2	1
Mark Reynolds	R	30	1B	532	71	107	21	1	29	90	3	2
Scooter Gennett	L	24	2B	626	67	162	25	5	10	52	10	7
Rickie Weeks	R	31	2B	522	64	108	23	2	17	46	10	3
Khris Davis	R	26	LF	457	57	100	22	1	19	65	7	5
Martin Maldonado	R	27	C	328	28	66	12	1	8	42	1	1
Caleb Gindl	L	25	CF	547	58	126	26	5	14	60	4	3
Nick Delmonico	L	21	3B	411	46	86	18	2	13	47	7	2
Elian Herrera	B	29	2B	491	57	107	15	5	4	42	16	6
Juan Francisco	L	27	1B	380	40	87	19	2	18	60	1	1
Logan Schafer	L	27	LF	404	41	89	17	5	5	40	10	4
Kevin Mattison	L	28	CF	496	57	91	17	6	8	40	21	10
Sean Halton	R	27	RF	508	49	112	27	2	13	64	4	2
Eugenio Velez	B	32	LF	421	45	97	18	4	7	43	18	7
Jeff Bianchi	R	27	3B	417	39	93	16	2	4	41	9	5
Greg Golson	R	28	RF	408	41	88	15	5	7	34	15	4
Vinnie Catricala	R	25	3B	544	58	123	26	2	11	59	6	3
Matt Pagnozzi	R	31	C	306	26	59	10	1	4	26	0	0
Josh Prince	R	26	CF	490	56	98	18	2	8	39	23	10
Steve Parker	L	26	3B	505	51	102	20	2	9	51	3	1
Jason Rogers	R	26	1B	513	56	114	23	2	13	58	6	2
Kentrail Davis	L	26	RF	563	60	119	23	6	7	48	18	8
Sea Bass Gonzalez	R	37	1B	100	12	21	4	0	2	12	0	0
Hunter Morris	L	25	1B	564	63	128	29	4	21	74	3	2
Micah Owings	R	31	LF	129	13	24	5	1	4	17	1	0
Yuniesky Betancourt	R	32	1B	416	40	98	20	2	13	59	1	1
Hainley Statia	B	28	2B	343	32	73	11	1	2	27	4	3
Rene Tosoni	L	27	CF	440	43	90	17	2	9	42	3	4
Brock Kjeldgaard	R	28	LF	483	45	83	13	2	18	55	3	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Ryan Braun	664	8.9%	17.6%	.240	.324	.300	.367	.540	.386
Carlos Gomez	491	5.7%	24.4%	.202	.312	.260	.313	.462	.340
Jonathan Lucroy	506	7.1%	14.4%	.161	.297	.276	.331	.437	.336
Jean Segura	580	4.7%	14.1%	.138	.315	.284	.322	.422	.326
Aramis Ramirez	459	7.2%	14.4%	.198	.287	.275	.338	.473	.351
Mark Reynolds	532	12.2%	30.1%	.240	.287	.234	.335	.474	.351
Scooter Gennett	626	4.2%	16.3%	.111	.318	.276	.309	.387	.301
Rickie Weeks	522	10.0%	25.3%	.170	.294	.236	.328	.406	.327
Khris Davis	457	9.2%	26.0%	.201	.302	.249	.330	.450	.340
Martin Maldonado	328	6.1%	26.2%	.129	.286	.224	.285	.353	.277
Caleb Gindl	547	8.0%	21.6%	.157	.306	.255	.316	.412	.317
Nick Delmonico	411	8.5%	27.3%	.164	.296	.231	.304	.395	.312
Elian Herrera	491	7.7%	22.6%	.084	.314	.243	.307	.327	.282
Juan Francisco	380	6.1%	31.8%	.219	.319	.246	.295	.465	.325
Logan Schafer	404	6.2%	17.1%	.115	.287	.243	.300	.358	.289
Kevin Mattison	496	6.9%	34.3%	.118	.303	.203	.266	.321	.260
Sean Halton	508	6.3%	25.4%	.151	.303	.241	.296	.392	.301
Eugenio Velez	421	7.1%	19.2%	.122	.302	.253	.309	.375	.301
Jeff Bianchi	417	5.0%	21.1%	.083	.299	.240	.279	.323	.262
Greg Golson	408	4.4%	27.9%	.121	.312	.232	.275	.353	.278
Vinnie Catricala	544	5.5%	22.6%	.126	.301	.245	.295	.371	.292
Matt Pagnozzi	306	5.9%	25.8%	.086	.279	.211	.268	.297	.252
Josh Prince	490	8.2%	23.7%	.105	.283	.223	.291	.328	.277
Steve Parker	505	8.3%	26.1%	.112	.294	.225	.294	.337	.281
Jason Rogers	513	8.0%	22.4%	.141	.295	.245	.306	.386	.306
Kentrail Davis	563	7.3%	26.8%	.109	.316	.233	.299	.342	.286
Sea Bass Gonzalez	100	4.0%	21.0%	.107	.264	.223	.260	.330	.261
Hunter Morris	564	5.1%	24.1%	.190	.286	.242	.285	.432	.311
Micah Owings	129	3.9%	43.4%	.155	.317	.195	.233	.350	.257
Yuniesky Betancourt	416	3.4%	14.2%	.160	.259	.247	.272	.407	.290
Hainley Statia	343	8.7%	16.6%	.062	.282	.235	.302	.297	.270
Rene Tosoni	440	6.1%	24.1%	.118	.277	.222	.276	.340	.271
Brock Kjeldgaard	483	7.9%	42.2%	.163	.301	.191	.265	.354	.276

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Ryan Braun	664	7.8	142	0	5.0	Matt Holliday
Carlos Gomez	491	5.8	106	11	3.9	Juan Samuel
Jonathan Lucroy	506	5.5	106	0	3.3	Carlos Ruiz
Jean Segura	580	5.4	99	-1	2.9	Julio Lugo
Aramis Ramirez	459	6.0	116	-6	2.2	Mike Lowell
Mark Reynolds	532	5.6	116	-4	1.4	John Jaha
Scooter Gennett	626	4.4	87	0	1.3	Manuel Lee
Rickie Weeks	522	4.8	97	-8	1.2	Jed Hansen
Khris Davis	457	5.3	109	-3	1.2	Jason Botts
Martin Maldonado	328	3.5	71	4	1.0	Ray Stephens
Caleb Gindl	547	4.7	95	-8	1.0	Dan Peltier
Nick Delmonico	411	4.3	87	-5	0.6	Craig Kuzmic
Elian Herrera	491	3.7	72	2	0.5	Wayne Tolleson
Juan Francisco	380	4.9	101	0	0.5	Dave Hudgens
Logan Schafer	404	3.9	77	6	0.4	Mark Kramer
Kevin Mattison	496	2.9	58	9	0.3	Lorenzo Scott
Sean Halton	508	4.1	84	2	0.2	Jeremy Slayden
Eugenio Velez	421	4.3	84	-1	0.0	Cory Sullivan
Jeff Bianchi	417	3.2	62	5	0.0	Steve Sisco
Greg Golson	408	3.6	68	6	-0.1	Manny Jose
Vinnie Catricala	544	3.9	79	-7	-0.1	Travis Hanson
Matt Pagnozzi	306	2.7	53	-1	-0.2	Chad Moeller
Josh Prince	490	3.4	67	-2	-0.2	Maiko Loyola
Steve Parker	505	3.5	70	-3	-0.2	Justin Baum
Jason Rogers	513	4.3	86	-1	-0.3	Thomas Hubbard
Kentrail Davis	563	3.7	73	2	-0.3	Roger Bernadina
Sea Bass Gonzalez	100	3.0	58	1	-0.3	Brian Jordan
Hunter Morris	564	4.4	91	-5	-0.5	Kevin Reimer
Micah Owings	129	2.8	55	-1	-0.6	Rolando Roomes
Yuniesky Betancourt	416	3.9	80	0	-0.6	Willie Morales
Hainley Statia	343	3.1	63	-4	-0.7	Gavin Jackson
Rene Tosoni	440	3.1	66	-6	-0.9	Scott Seal
Brock Kjeldgaard	483	3.2	66	-1	-1.1	Greg Catalanotte

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yovani Gallardo	R	28	31	31	185.3	170	64	21	176	86	80
Kyle Lohse	R	35	27	27	165.3	111	33	22	167	76	71
Marco Estrada	R	30	23	23	135.3	125	35	18	126	63	59
Wily Peralta	R	25	30	30	163.7	129	76	17	164	86	80
Will Smith	L	24	40	18	137.7	121	45	18	136	70	65
Tom Gorzelanny	L	31	38	8	80.7	77	30	11	77	40	37
Jim Henderson	R	31	62	0	61.7	73	29	7	51	26	24
Mike Fiers	R	29	25	17	101.0	88	36	16	102	57	53
Tyler Thornburg	R	25	29	22	127.0	106	60	19	128	73	68
Brandon Kintzler	R	29	53	0	57.7	43	18	5	57	26	24
Alfredo Figaro	R	29	26	12	87.0	60	20	14	93	48	45
Jimmy Nelson	R	25	26	25	131.7	99	80	16	135	79	74
Chris Narveson	L	32	15	14	73.0	50	29	11	79	44	41
Mike Gonzalez	L	36	56	0	43.0	47	18	6	41	21	20
Wei-Chung Wang	L	22	13	12	47.7	33	8	9	53	29	27
Rob W00t3n	R	28	60	0	70.0	49	25	8	73	37	35
Mark Rogers	R	28	22	18	72.3	54	60	7	72	46	43
Donovan Hand	R	28	48	4	85.0	51	28	12	93	49	46
Zach Kroenke	L	30	29	18	115.3	59	51	15	131	73	68
Jose De La Torre	R	28	39	0	53.3	48	36	6	51	31	29
Tim Dillard	R	30	43	0	54.0	36	27	6	58	32	30
Hiram Burgos	R	26	21	20	100.0	65	44	17	113	66	62
Kevin Shackelford	R	25	39	0	53.3	30	19	7	60	33	31
Michael Blazek	R	25	57	0	58.0	51	43	8	57	36	34
Aaron Laffey	L	29	32	19	111.0	53	51	18	131	77	72
Brooks Hall	R	24	23	19	89.7	49	53	15	105	66	62
Johnny Hellweg	R	25	29	24	119.7	82	106	14	130	86	80
Ariel Pena	R	25	26	26	123.3	99	82	23	134	89	83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yovani Gallardo	185.3	796	21.4%	8.0%	.288	3.88	3.80	101	99
Kyle Lohse	165.3	696	16.0%	4.7%	.275	3.86	4.15	100	108
Marco Estrada	135.3	567	22.0%	6.2%	.279	3.92	3.83	102	99
Wily Peralta	163.7	731	17.6%	10.4%	.293	4.40	4.40	114	114
Will Smith	137.7	594	20.4%	7.6%	.292	4.25	4.18	110	109
Tom Gorzelanny	80.7	349	22.1%	8.6%	.289	4.13	4.14	107	108
Jim Henderson	61.7	265	27.5%	10.9%	.287	3.50	3.69	91	96
Mike Fiers	101.0	441	20.0%	8.2%	.290	4.72	4.63	123	120
Tyler Thornburg	127.0	569	18.6%	10.5%	.290	4.82	4.98	125	129
Brandon Kintzler	57.7	248	17.3%	7.3%	.289	3.75	3.70	97	96
Alfredo Figaro	87.0	374	16.0%	5.3%	.285	4.66	4.53	121	118
Jimmy Nelson	131.7	610	16.2%	13.1%	.293	5.06	5.23	131	136
Chris Narveson	73.0	327	15.3%	8.9%	.289	5.05	4.99	131	130
Mike Gonzalez	43.0	188	25.0%	9.6%	.302	4.19	4.01	109	104
Wei-Chung Wang	47.7	204	16.2%	3.9%	.291	5.10	4.89	133	127
Rob W00t3n	70.0	308	15.9%	8.1%	.293	4.50	4.33	117	112
Mark Rogers	72.3	349	15.5%	17.2%	.292	5.35	5.50	139	143
Donovan Hand	85.0	376	13.6%	7.4%	.290	4.87	4.89	127	127
Zach Kroenke	115.3	528	11.2%	9.7%	.293	5.31	5.30	138	138
Jose De La Torre	53.3	247	19.4%	14.6%	.294	4.89	4.98	127	129
Tim Dillard	54.0	247	14.6%	10.9%	.297	5.00	4.85	130	126
Hiram Burgos	100.0	457	14.2%	9.6%	.296	5.58	5.57	145	145
Kevin Shackelford	53.3	239	12.6%	8.0%	.296	5.23	4.89	136	127
Michael Blazek	58.0	274	18.6%	15.7%	.293	5.28	5.59	137	145
Aaron Laffey	111.0	515	10.3%	9.9%	.294	5.84	5.85	152	152
Brooks Hall	89.7	427	11.5%	12.4%	.297	6.22	6.21	162	161
Johnny Hellweg	119.7	595	13.8%	17.8%	.304	6.02	6.18	156	161
Ariel Pena	123.3	586	16.9%	14.0%	.298	6.06	6.18	157	161

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Yovani Gallardo	185.3	8.26	3.11	1.02	103	2.8	Bob Walk
Kyle Lohse	165.3	6.04	1.80	1.20	104	2.5	Paul Byrd
Marco Estrada	135.3	8.31	2.33	1.20	102	2.0	Hideki Irabu
Wily Peralta	163.7	7.09	4.18	0.93	91	1.4	Jim Beattie
Will Smith	137.7	7.91	2.94	1.18	95	1.2	Neal Heaton
Tom Gorzelanny	80.7	8.59	3.35	1.23	97	0.7	Ron Mahay
Jim Henderson	61.7	10.65	4.23	1.02	115	0.6	Ryne Duren
Mike Fiers	101.0	7.84	3.21	1.43	85	0.4	Tom Kramer
Tyler Thornburg	127.0	7.51	4.25	1.35	83	0.4	Tyler Walker
Brandon Kintzler	57.7	6.71	2.81	0.78	107	0.4	Mark Lee
Alfredo Figaro	87.0	6.21	2.07	1.45	86	0.3	Matt Ginter
Jimmy Nelson	131.7	6.77	5.47	1.09	79	0.1	Derrick Lewis
Chris Narveson	73.0	6.16	3.58	1.36	79	0.1	Joe Magrane
Mike Gonzalez	43.0	9.84	3.77	1.26	96	0.0	Trever Miller
Wei-Chung Wang	47.7	6.23	1.51	1.70	79	0.0	Justin Atchley
Rob W00t3n	70.0	6.30	3.21	1.03	89	-0.2	Scott Rose
Mark Rogers	72.3	6.72	7.47	0.87	75	-0.2	Nate Puryear
Donovan Hand	85.0	5.40	2.96	1.27	82	-0.3	Joe Lynch
Zach Kroenke	115.3	4.61	3.98	1.17	76	-0.4	Chris Peters
Jose De La Torre	53.3	8.11	6.08	1.01	82	-0.4	Doug Robertson
Tim Dillard	54.0	6.00	4.50	1.00	80	-0.5	Jarod Juelsgaard
Hiram Burgos	100.0	5.85	3.96	1.53	72	-0.6	John Carter
Kevin Shackelford	53.3	5.07	3.21	1.18	77	-0.6	Arty Santos
Michael Blazek	58.0	7.91	6.67	1.24	76	-0.7	Bill Bene
Aaron Laffey	111.0	4.30	4.14	1.46	69	-1.1	Kevin Rawitzer
Brooks Hall	89.7	4.92	5.32	1.51	65	-1.2	Cristobal Correa
Johnny Hellweg	119.7	6.17	7.97	1.05	67	-1.3	Billy Buckner
Ariel Pena	123.3	7.23	5.99	1.68	66	-1.4	Geoff Edsell

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.