2014 ZiPS Projections – Oakland Athletics

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Oakland Athletics. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Kansas City / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
What the depth-chart graphic below doesn’t represent very well, but what is still true of the Oakland A’s, is that they’ll probably be getting value from players who aren’t proper starters. Of particular note in this regard is outfielder Craig Gentry, for whom Oakland traded Michael Choice and a friend to Texas this offseason. Gentry’s defensive figures over the last three season have been, speaking in very technical sabermetric terms, entirely bananas. Accordingly, it’s not so unexpected to see him receive a very optimistic projection here (2.4 zWAR) in just 300 or so plate appearances.

Also of note: John Jaso is projected as a catcher here, but is likely to get a significant numbers of plate appearances — perhaps the bulk of them — at DH. Even a poor defensive catcher still receives a pretty substantial increase in value by way of positional adjustment — relative to a designated hitter, certainly. Expecting him to produce two wins in a DH capacity might be unrealistic. Billy Butler posted a 116 wRC+ last season, for example, while DH-ing almost exclusively and still produced just a 1.4 WAR.

Pitchers
The starting pitchers in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in order of expected rotation slot, but rather by projected WAR according to ZiPS. What doing that reveals is how Sonny Gray, and probably not Jarrod Parker, is maybe the staff ace. What it also reveals is that Tommy Milone, currently not expected to be included in the opening-day rotation, is projected like a pitcher who probably should be.

Elsewhere, one finds that Scott Kazmir’s projection (1.0 zWAR) isn’t a particularly favorable one. The reason for that, though, appears due less to mediocrity on a rate basis and more to a pretty conservative innings projections (91.1). This isn’t particularly strange for a pitcher who returned in 2013 following nearly a full two-year layoff.

Bench/Prospects
Given both his (a) skills and (b) performances relative to age/level, it’s not surprising to learn that shortstop Addison Russell is one of the top prospects in baseball. What’s perhaps more surprising is that Russell, who’s recorded just 13 cursory plate appearances above High-A ball, is projected already to produce wins at a league-average rate in the majors. He would appear, at this juncture, to be considerably more advanced than most of the other rookie-eligible players in the Oakland system.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the A’s, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Josh Donaldson	R	28	3B	615	75	142	31	2	19	75	7	3
Coco Crisp	B	34	CF	515	74	122	22	5	13	53	27	5
Yoenis Cespedes	R	28	LF	612	84	147	24	4	25	86	11	6
Josh Reddick	L	27	RF	554	67	120	26	4	19	66	8	3
Craig Gentry	R	30	CF	308	34	68	11	3	2	22	19	4
Jed Lowrie	B	30	SS	488	56	116	27	2	13	54	1	0
Derek Norris	R	25	C	406	49	73	17	1	12	42	7	1
John Jaso	L	30	C	308	36	67	15	1	6	34	3	1
Addison Russell	R	20	SS	529	58	110	22	4	10	46	17	3
Alberto Callaspo	B	31	2B	524	54	121	21	0	9	55	3	2
Brandon Moss	L	30	1B	524	68	112	24	2	26	78	5	3
Stephen Vogt	L	29	C	498	51	114	23	3	10	51	1	1
Shane Peterson	L	26	CF	501	54	97	20	2	8	47	10	3
Luke Montz	R	30	C	320	33	59	14	0	12	39	2	2
Daric Barton	L	28	1B	513	57	103	23	1	7	47	3	2
Hiroyuki Nakajima	R	31	SS	519	57	123	20	2	5	54	8	5
Eric Sogard	L	28	2B	433	49	99	19	3	4	36	10	4
Chris Gimenez	R	31	C	327	33	66	12	0	4	26	1	2
Corey Brown	L	28	CF	506	54	92	19	3	15	49	10	5
David Freitas	R	25	C	413	40	80	18	0	7	38	0	0
Michael Taylor	R	28	RF	519	56	107	23	1	12	55	8	3
Nick Punto	B	36	SS	244	23	48	9	1	1	16	3	2
Jose Martinez	R	28	2B	451	48	103	19	2	6	44	3	2
Jake Goebbert	L	26	LF	515	57	101	20	4	12	51	4	2
Andy Parrino	B	28	SS	449	44	82	19	2	5	36	4	2
Miles Head	R	23	3B	352	35	74	14	2	7	30	1	1
Conner Crumbliss	L	27	LF	563	60	96	18	2	7	38	13	5
Nate Freiman	R	27	1B	462	42	99	20	1	11	56	1	1
Tyler Ladendorf	R	26	3B	462	42	86	18	2	6	34	4	2
Anthony Aliotti	L	26	1B	582	56	113	22	1	8	51	2	2
Dusty Coleman	R	27	SS	561	46	89	22	4	7	41	10	6
Jeremy Barfield	R	25	RF	461	42	91	17	1	10	43	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Josh Donaldson	615	8.6%	18.9%	.167	.292	.257	.327	.424	.330
Coco Crisp	515	8.9%	12.2%	.154	.279	.265	.328	.419	.330
Yoenis Cespedes	612	7.2%	19.6%	.191	.293	.263	.322	.454	.335
Josh Reddick	554	8.8%	20.6%	.184	.274	.242	.309	.426	.318
Craig Gentry	308	7.5%	16.9%	.085	.303	.251	.329	.336	.302
Jed Lowrie	488	8.2%	15.2%	.159	.288	.263	.324	.422	.325
Derek Norris	406	12.8%	28.8%	.159	.277	.211	.319	.370	.310
John Jaso	308	13.6%	14.6%	.134	.289	.258	.365	.392	.340
Addison Russell	529	7.4%	27.2%	.125	.305	.229	.295	.354	.294
Alberto Callaspo	524	10.1%	9.5%	.104	.274	.261	.335	.365	.308
Brandon Moss	524	9.2%	27.7%	.227	.288	.240	.317	.467	.338
Stephen Vogt	498	6.2%	16.7%	.129	.280	.248	.294	.377	.292
Shane Peterson	501	10.2%	25.9%	.109	.291	.220	.305	.329	.286
Luke Montz	320	9.1%	29.7%	.175	.260	.207	.284	.382	.290
Daric Barton	513	13.3%	16.6%	.106	.277	.237	.342	.343	.309
Hiroyuki Nakajima	519	4.8%	17.5%	.082	.301	.256	.297	.338	.279
Eric Sogard	433	7.4%	12.5%	.094	.283	.253	.312	.347	.292
Chris Gimenez	327	9.5%	20.2%	.082	.279	.228	.305	.310	.274
Corey Brown	506	8.3%	36.0%	.154	.296	.202	.273	.356	.276
David Freitas	413	9.2%	22.5%	.105	.270	.217	.298	.322	.281
Michael Taylor	519	8.9%	22.4%	.131	.279	.230	.303	.361	.296
Nick Punto	244	10.2%	20.9%	.066	.290	.226	.305	.292	.264
Jose Martinez	451	4.4%	10.9%	.098	.262	.245	.283	.343	.272
Jake Goebbert	515	9.3%	22.3%	.140	.266	.221	.300	.361	.293
Andy Parrino	449	8.5%	27.4%	.095	.279	.204	.280	.299	.257
Miles Head	352	5.7%	30.1%	.120	.312	.226	.278	.346	.277
Conner Crumbliss	563	13.0%	21.8%	.090	.254	.202	.313	.292	.278
Nate Freiman	462	6.5%	21.4%	.130	.278	.235	.292	.365	.290
Tyler Ladendorf	462	6.7%	24.0%	.095	.261	.204	.266	.299	.253
Anthony Aliotti	582	10.1%	30.6%	.093	.315	.219	.301	.312	.277
Dusty Coleman	561	6.6%	43.1%	.099	.308	.174	.237	.273	.229
Jeremy Barfield	461	6.5%	22.3%	.115	.257	.215	.267	.330	.263

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson	615	5.1	109	5	3.8	Pinky Higgins
Coco Crisp	515	5.5	108	2	3.1	Chuck Hinton
Yoenis Cespedes	612	5.3	115	2	2.8	Rondell White
Josh Reddick	554	4.7	104	10	2.5	Jessie Reid
Craig Gentry	308	4.4	87	13	2.4	Esteban German
Jed Lowrie	488	5.0	107	-6	2.3	Rich Aurilia
Derek Norris	406	4.2	93	-3	2.0	Josh Willingham
John Jaso	308	5.3	113	-5	1.9	Ellie Rodriguez
Addison Russell	529	3.9	81	1	1.9	Dick Schofield
Alberto Callaspo	524	4.5	97	-3	1.7	Edgardo Alfonzo
Brandon Moss	524	5.2	116	-3	1.6	Dan Pasqua
Stephen Vogt	498	4.0	87	-6	1.4	Jerry Narron
Shane Peterson	501	3.6	78	2	1.2	Ryan Spilborghs
Luke Montz	320	3.6	85	-1	1.2	Dave Duncan
Daric Barton	513	4.1	94	4	1.0	Mike Twardoski
Hiroyuki Nakajima	519	3.6	78	-1	0.9	Manny Trillo
Eric Sogard	433	4.0	85	-1	0.9	Mike Gates
Chris Gimenez	327	3.2	73	-2	0.7	Dave Toth
Corey Brown	506	3.3	75	1	0.6	Jon van Every
David Freitas	413	3.3	74	-7	0.5	Adam Melhuse
Michael Taylor	519	3.9	85	0	0.4	Cliff Brumbaugh
Nick Punto	244	3.1	69	1	0.4	Gene Michael
Jose Martinez	451	3.4	75	0	0.3	Mike Richardt
Jake Goebbert	515	3.8	85	0	0.3	Brad Bierley
Andy Parrino	449	2.8	63	1	0.2	Ryan Owens
Miles Head	352	3.3	74	-3	-0.1	Pete Dempsey
Conner Crumbliss	563	3.2	72	0	-0.3	Troy Thomas
Nate Freiman	462	3.7	83	-3	-0.7	Frank Jacobs
Tyler Ladendorf	462	2.7	58	-3	-0.7	Ryan Stegall
Anthony Aliotti	582	3.2	73	1	-0.9	Dale Holman
Dusty Coleman	561	2.1	43	3	-0.9	Austin Manahan
Jeremy Barfield	461	3.0	67	-2	-1.0	John Lindsey

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Sonny Gray	R	24	33	31	185.3	163	70	14	171	78	73
Dan Straily	R	25	31	31	175.7	160	68	20	159	80	75
Tommy Milone	L	27	29	28	168.3	140	34	21	168	76	71
A.J. Griffin	R	26	31	31	183.7	157	50	27	172	87	81
Jarrod Parker	R	25	30	30	174.0	133	63	18	164	81	76
Sean Doolittle	L	27	67	0	69.0	76	19	5	56	24	22
Scott Kazmir	L	30	17	17	91.3	86	33	10	86	44	41
Ryan Cook	R	27	69	0	68.7	73	28	5	57	25	23
Drew Pomeranz	L	25	26	25	123.0	105	62	14	117	64	60
Jim Johnson	R	31	69	0	72.0	52	18	5	67	28	26
Luke Gregerson	R	30	69	0	62.7	54	19	5	56	25	23
Dan Otero	R	29	56	0	68.3	44	12	5	69	28	26
Jesus Castillo	R	30	39	5	63.3	39	20	5	64	29	27
Jesse Chavez	R	30	38	8	89.3	71	29	10	89	45	42
Eric O’Flaherty	L	29	46	0	41.0	33	13	4	37	16	15
Jose Flores	R	25	53	0	60.3	50	26	4	57	27	25
Raul Alcantara	R	21	28	24	134.0	73	39	17	149	76	71
Evan Scribner	R	28	49	0	62.7	52	21	6	60	29	27
Josh Lindblom	R	27	48	11	95.7	70	39	13	96	51	48
Fernando Abad	L	28	55	3	60.7	48	19	7	61	30	28
Fernando Nieve	R	31	22	9	65.3	46	26	8	68	36	34
Pat Neshek	R	33	50	0	47.0	37	15	6	46	22	21
Kyler Newby	R	29	49	0	57.7	47	26	6	55	28	26
Fernando Rodriguez	R	30	47	0	52.7	55	27	6	47	26	24
Hideki Okajima	L	38	37	0	43.0	30	13	5	44	22	21
Carlos Hernandez	L	27	27	20	122.3	68	46	17	137	73	68
Arnold Leon	R	25	26	12	85.0	47	26	12	95	50	47
Philip Humber	R	31	31	17	115.7	78	40	17	123	68	64
Michael Ynoa	R	22	21	19	60.7	41	37	8	64	39	36
Deryk Hooker	R	25	50	0	59.0	42	27	8	60	33	31
Chris Resop	R	31	55	0	62.0	48	25	9	65	35	33
Andrew Granier	R	25	27	27	140.0	103	90	20	147	91	85
Matt Buschmann	R	30	26	23	126.3	79	77	19	140	87	81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Sonny Gray	185.3	797	20.5%	8.8%	.289	3.54	3.55	90	91
Dan Straily	175.7	754	21.2%	9.0%	.280	3.84	4.06	98	103
Tommy Milone	168.3	707	19.8%	4.8%	.289	3.80	3.68	97	94
A.J. Griffin	183.7	773	20.3%	6.5%	.271	3.97	4.15	101	106
Jarrod Parker	174.0	749	17.8%	8.4%	.276	3.93	4.05	100	103
Sean Doolittle	69.0	282	27.0%	6.7%	.283	2.87	2.69	73	69
Scott Kazmir	91.3	393	21.9%	8.4%	.291	4.04	3.81	103	97
Ryan Cook	68.7	291	25.1%	9.6%	.287	3.01	3.21	77	82
Drew Pomeranz	123.0	548	19.2%	11.3%	.285	4.39	4.49	112	115
Jim Johnson	72.0	301	17.3%	6.0%	.279	3.25	3.33	83	85
Luke Gregerson	62.7	263	20.5%	7.2%	.280	3.30	3.35	84	86
Dan Otero	68.3	286	15.4%	4.2%	.288	3.42	3.36	87	86
Jesus Castillo	63.3	274	14.2%	7.3%	.287	3.84	3.92	98	100
Jesse Chavez	89.3	386	18.4%	7.5%	.293	4.23	4.06	108	104
Eric O’Flaherty	41.0	173	19.1%	7.5%	.270	3.29	3.55	84	90
Jose Flores	60.3	264	18.9%	9.9%	.293	3.73	3.63	95	93
Raul Alcantara	134.0	590	12.4%	6.6%	.291	4.77	4.69	122	120
Evan Scribner	62.7	269	19.3%	7.8%	.287	3.88	3.77	99	96
Josh Lindblom	95.7	422	16.6%	9.2%	.281	4.52	4.70	115	120
Fernando Abad	60.7	262	18.3%	7.2%	.292	4.15	4.04	106	103
Fernando Nieve	65.3	290	15.9%	9.0%	.291	4.68	4.64	119	119
Pat Neshek	47.0	202	18.3%	7.4%	.280	4.02	4.06	103	104
Kyler Newby	57.7	254	18.5%	10.2%	.285	4.06	4.26	104	109
Fernando Rodriguez	52.7	232	23.7%	11.6%	.289	4.10	3.84	105	98
Hideki Okajima	43.0	186	16.1%	7.0%	.287	4.40	4.11	112	105
Carlos Hernandez	122.3	550	12.4%	8.4%	.292	5.00	5.08	128	130
Arnold Leon	85.0	376	12.5%	6.9%	.290	4.98	4.91	127	125
Philip Humber	115.7	510	15.3%	7.8%	.286	4.98	4.73	127	121
Michael Ynoa	60.7	283	14.5%	13.1%	.290	5.34	5.47	136	140
Deryk Hooker	59.0	264	15.9%	10.2%	.284	4.73	4.90	121	125
Chris Resop	62.0	276	17.4%	9.1%	.293	4.79	4.58	122	117
Andrew Granier	140.0	657	15.7%	13.7%	.293	5.46	5.61	139	143
Matt Buschmann	126.3	596	13.3%	12.9%	.294	5.77	5.83	147	149

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Sonny Gray	185.3	7.92	3.40	0.68	109	3.1	Jason Schmidt
Dan Straily	175.7	8.20	3.48	1.02	101	2.3	Mike Bielecki
Tommy Milone	168.3	7.49	1.82	1.12	102	2.3	Frank Tanana
A.J. Griffin	183.7	7.69	2.45	1.32	97	2.1	Ben McDonald
Jarrod Parker	174.0	6.88	3.26	0.93	98	2.1	Frank Seminara
Sean Doolittle	69.0	9.91	2.48	0.65	135	1.0	Dan Plesac
Scott Kazmir	91.3	8.48	3.25	0.99	96	1.0	Randy Wolf
Ryan Cook	68.7	9.56	3.67	0.66	128	0.9	Jim Kern
Drew Pomeranz	123.0	7.68	4.54	1.02	88	0.8	David West
Jim Johnson	72.0	6.50	2.25	0.63	119	0.7	Terry Leach
Luke Gregerson	62.7	7.75	2.73	0.72	117	0.6	Hector Carrasco
Dan Otero	68.3	5.80	1.58	0.66	113	0.6	Terry Fox
Jesus Castillo	63.3	5.55	2.84	0.71	101	0.5	Jim Todd
Jesse Chavez	89.3	7.16	2.92	1.01	91	0.4	Carlos Reyes
Eric O’Flaherty	41.0	7.24	2.85	0.88	117	0.4	Bobby Seay
Jose Flores	60.3	7.46	3.88	0.60	104	0.3	Anthony Chavez
Raul Alcantara	134.0	4.90	2.62	1.14	81	0.2	Bob Tewksbury
Evan Scribner	62.7	7.46	3.01	0.86	100	0.2	Hipolito Pichardo
Josh Lindblom	95.7	6.58	3.67	1.22	86	0.1	John Costello
Fernando Abad	60.7	7.12	2.82	1.04	93	0.1	Erasmo Ramirez
Fernando Nieve	65.3	6.34	3.58	1.10	83	0.1	Aaron Small
Pat Neshek	47.0	7.09	2.87	1.15	96	0.0	Blas Minor
Kyler Newby	57.7	7.33	4.06	0.94	95	0.0	Jason Boyd
Fernando Rodriguez	52.7	9.39	4.61	1.02	94	0.0	Bart Miadich
Hideki Okajima	43.0	6.28	2.72	1.05	88	-0.2	Boom-Boom Beck
Carlos Hernandez	122.3	5.00	3.39	1.25	77	-0.2	Andy Van Hekken
Arnold Leon	85.0	4.98	2.75	1.27	78	-0.2	Dicky Gonzalez
Philip Humber	115.7	6.07	3.11	1.32	78	-0.2	Jason Roach
Michael Ynoa	60.7	6.08	5.49	1.19	72	-0.3	Tim Harrell
Deryk Hooker	59.0	6.41	4.12	1.22	82	-0.4	Buddy Carlyle
Chris Resop	62.0	6.97	3.63	1.31	81	-0.5	Dave Wainhouse
Andrew Granier	140.0	6.62	5.79	1.29	71	-0.9	Scott Kamieniecki
Matt Buschmann	126.3	5.63	5.49	1.35	67	-1.3	Michael Smith

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.