2014 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston.

Batters
Citizens of Philadelphia will be glad to see that their club’s first baseman, Ryan Howard — to whom is still owed no less than $85 million — isn’t projected by ZiPS to produce only a single win like last year. What’ll be less encouraging is how it’s because he’s projected to produce more like zero wins in ca. 400 plate appearances.

Fortunately, the club profiles as generally average almost everywhere else — with a number of starters apparent candidates to improve upon their 2013 campaigns. Domonic Brown, Ben Revere, Jimmy Rollins, Carlos Ruiz: all four receive here projected WARs better than their actual WARs from this past season. Difficult to ignore, as well, is the very encouraging projection for Maikel Franco, who recorded a 30:70 walk-to-strikeout and 31 home runs in 581 plate appearances last season between High- and Double-A. Some question remains as to whether Franco will ultimately play third or first base in the majors. Conveniently, however, those appear to be the parent club’s greatest weaknesses at present.

Pitchers
Maybe a baby bird dying or another kind of baby animal dying: there’s little else as sad though, probably, as the sight of Roy Halladay in 2013, operating at something less than full capacity. Reports suggest that GM Ruben Amaro has been in contact with the right-hander this offseason. ZiPS isn’t particularly optimistic, however, about a return to form.

Remaining from the great rotation of 2010 and -11 are left-handers Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee, both of whom were pretty excellent in 2013 and probably will be again in 2014. As for the rest of the staff, that’s less certain. The $20 million invested in Jonathan Papelbon and Mike Adams for 2014 appears unlikely to provide a great return. After season-ending shoulder surgery, Adams himself is asking questions about whether his velocity will return.

As for right-handed Cuban emigre Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, who signed a three-year, $12 million contract with Philadelphia at the end of August, he remains a mystery for the moment — or, at least until Szymborski responds to the email I’ve hurriedly sent him after realizing this morning that his (i.e. Gonzalez’s) projection (if one exists) had been omitted from the relevant spreadsheet.*

*UPDATE: Szymborski has informed me that there won’t be a Gonzalez projection for the moment, on account of how projecting from Cuban data is a different sort of enterprise.

Bench/Prospects
Besides the aforementioned Franco, it doesn’t appear as though Philadelphia is entirely bursting with major-league-ready talent. Cody Asche recorded his first 179 major-league plate appearances in 2013, and they — combined with his minor-league resume — suggest to ZiPS that the third baseman is something better than replacement level. Aaron Altherr’s one-win projection is promising, it would seem. Left-hander Jesse Biddle, already ranked second among prospects in the organization this fall by Baseball America, also features a modestly encouraging projection.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Phillies, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Chase Utley	L	35	2B	455	60	104	19	5	15	59	9	2
Carlos Ruiz	R	35	C	417	43	102	22	0	9	51	2	0
Maikel Franco	R	21	3B	602	81	147	31	4	24	92	2	2
Domonic Brown	L	26	LF	517	66	127	25	4	24	74	9	5
Jimmy Rollins	B	35	SS	592	72	137	27	3	12	52	20	5
Marlon Byrd	R	36	RF	570	74	145	33	3	16	73	3	2
Ben Revere	L	26	CF	530	62	142	13	6	1	31	34	10
Freddy Galvis	B	24	2B	475	43	110	22	5	8	46	7	4
Erik Kratz	R	34	C	292	31	64	14	0	12	40	1	0
Aaron Altherr	R	23	CF	518	53	107	27	5	11	56	15	6
Cody Asche	L	24	3B	614	67	140	28	4	15	70	7	4
Cameron Rupp	R	25	C	383	36	79	16	1	8	40	1	1
Kelly Dugan	L	23	RF	514	62	117	23	4	15	59	2	3
Cesar Hernandez	B	24	2B	594	61	149	19	10	2	48	23	12
Tyson Gillies	L	25	CF	310	34	68	11	5	5	21	8	4
Darin Ruf	R	27	LF	626	70	137	31	1	20	74	1	1
Zach Collier	L	23	CF	470	49	94	14	7	7	39	12	5
Clete Thomas	L	30	CF	415	45	83	18	2	11	40	8	4
Tyler Henson	R	26	3B	445	48	93	21	3	7	40	7	4
John Mayberry	R	30	RF	442	54	99	24	1	14	52	6	2
Roger Bernadina	L	30	RF	342	39	71	14	2	8	26	12	3
Laynce Nix	L	33	RF	185	18	37	8	0	5	18	1	0
Sebastian Valle	R	23	C	406	40	87	16	3	11	43	1	2
Ryan Howard	L	34	1B	393	45	83	17	2	18	67	0	0
Kevin Frandsen	R	32	1B	399	40	97	20	2	4	36	3	2
Tommy Joseph	R	22	C	276	28	59	12	0	7	28	0	3
Pete Orr	L	35	2B	388	37	84	16	5	5	31	11	5
Michael Martinez	B	31	SS	301	32	67	9	3	4	29	5	3
Steve Susdorf	L	28	RF	409	43	97	21	1	4	35	7	5
Matt Tolbert	B	32	2B	261	25	56	8	2	1	15	4	4
Leandro Castro	R	25	RF	482	52	115	24	3	9	51	13	6
Derrick Mitchell	R	27	LF	408	42	84	18	1	11	44	11	5
Miguel Abreu	R	29	3B	352	31	82	12	2	3	29	11	5
Cody Overbeck	R	28	1B	515	53	111	23	1	18	63	1	2
Josh Fields	R	31	1B	381	41	85	19	2	6	37	6	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Chase Utley	455	8.8%	14.3%	.185	.274	.260	.338	.445	.340
Carlos Ruiz	417	7.2%	11.5%	.132	.293	.274	.343	.406	.322
Maikel Franco	602	4.5%	17.3%	.196	.278	.259	.296	.455	.325
Domonic Brown	517	8.3%	19.3%	.225	.296	.272	.333	.497	.353
Jimmy Rollins	592	8.4%	12.8%	.129	.277	.256	.319	.384	.310
Marlon Byrd	570	4.7%	19.5%	.165	.320	.276	.325	.441	.334
Ben Revere	530	4.9%	10.0%	.057	.320	.288	.326	.345	.300
Freddy Galvis	475	4.2%	18.9%	.127	.295	.249	.285	.376	.283
Erik Kratz	292	6.8%	20.9%	.189	.267	.242	.301	.430	.314
Aaron Altherr	518	6.4%	32.0%	.148	.318	.226	.278	.373	.286
Cody Asche	614	6.2%	23.8%	.142	.304	.246	.296	.388	.299
Cameron Rupp	383	6.0%	30.3%	.119	.306	.223	.277	.342	.275
Kelly Dugan	514	5.3%	30.5%	.160	.336	.246	.300	.406	.309
Cesar Hernandez	594	5.6%	19.5%	.082	.338	.271	.312	.353	.291
Tyson Gillies	310	4.8%	24.5%	.125	.304	.237	.283	.362	.283
Darin Ruf	626	8.3%	27.8%	.167	.316	.246	.318	.413	.321
Zach Collier	470	6.6%	27.4%	.115	.298	.221	.283	.336	.275
Clete Thomas	415	7.0%	30.4%	.144	.293	.217	.275	.361	.280
Tyler Henson	445	6.7%	32.1%	.119	.333	.230	.287	.348	.280
John Mayberry	442	6.8%	22.4%	.167	.287	.243	.299	.410	.309
Roger Bernadina	342	7.9%	24.6%	.137	.292	.231	.301	.368	.295
Laynce Nix	185	7.6%	28.6%	.135	.283	.218	.276	.353	.273
Sebastian Valle	406	3.2%	28.3%	.142	.288	.225	.250	.368	.266
Ryan Howard	393	8.9%	30.5%	.215	.301	.238	.310	.453	.318
Kevin Frandsen	399	3.5%	9.5%	.098	.284	.264	.311	.362	.295
Tommy Joseph	276	5.1%	26.4%	.128	.289	.229	.272	.357	.273
Pete Orr	388	4.1%	20.4%	.113	.281	.231	.270	.343	.268
Michael Martinez	301	4.7%	16.9%	.096	.278	.239	.279	.336	.267
Steve Susdorf	409	6.6%	19.6%	.094	.316	.259	.313	.353	.294
Matt Tolbert	261	6.1%	16.9%	.063	.282	.235	.284	.298	.252
Leandro Castro	482	2.7%	18.9%	.124	.292	.250	.273	.374	.282
Derrick Mitchell	408	6.1%	27.9%	.141	.287	.223	.275	.364	.282
Miguel Abreu	352	2.0%	13.9%	.074	.274	.243	.263	.317	.255
Cody Overbeck	515	5.0%	30.7%	.164	.302	.231	.276	.395	.292
Josh Fields	381	6.3%	28.1%	.116	.326	.241	.289	.358	.285

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Chase Utley	455	5.6	113	2	2.8	Lou Whitaker
Carlos Ruiz	417	5.2	105	2	2.8	Mike Lieberthal
Maikel Franco	602	4.9	102	-1	2.4	Ed Sprague
Domonic Brown	517	6.1	124	-3	2.3	Harold Baines
Jimmy Rollins	592	4.6	92	-3	2.1	Billy Rogell
Marlon Byrd	570	5.3	108	2	2.0	Brian Jordan
Ben Revere	530	4.6	85	3	1.8	Alex Sanchez
Freddy Galvis	475	3.8	80	7	1.3	Ricky Bell
Erik Kratz	292	4.7	98	-3	1.3	Joe Oliver
Aaron Altherr	518	3.7	77	5	1.1	Franklin Gutierrez
Cody Asche	614	4.1	86	-2	1.1	Rick Schu
Cameron Rupp	383	3.3	69	1	0.8	Gilberto Reyes
Kelly Dugan	514	4.3	92	1	0.7	Myron White
Cesar Hernandez	594	4.1	82	-3	0.7	Garry Templeton
Tyson Gillies	310	3.6	76	4	0.7	Herm Winningham
Darin Ruf	626	4.7	99	-7	0.6	Joe Vitiello
Zach Collier	470	3.4	69	2	0.4	Alexander Presley
Clete Thomas	415	3.4	73	1	0.3	Nick Gorneault
Tyler Henson	445	3.5	73	0	0.3	David Howard
John Mayberry	442	4.4	92	-3	0.3	Mendy Lopez
Roger Bernadina	342	4.1	82	1	0.3	Ted Wood
Laynce Nix	185	3.4	71	5	0.2	Dann Howitt
Sebastian Valle	406	3.1	67	-2	0.2	Sean Mulligan
Ryan Howard	393	5.0	106	-4	0.2	Lee Stevens
Kevin Frandsen	399	4.1	84	4	0.1	Wally Roettger
Tommy Joseph	276	3.1	71	-4	0.0	Alvin Colina
Pete Orr	388	3.3	67	1	0.0	Denny Doyle
Michael Martinez	301	3.3	68	-2	-0.1	Pablo Martinez
Steve Susdorf	409	3.9	82	-2	-0.3	Scott Livingstone
Matt Tolbert	261	2.8	60	-3	-0.4	Frank Kellner
Leandro Castro	482	3.7	75	0	-0.5	Robert Perez
Derrick Mitchell	408	3.5	74	-1	-0.5	Dave Elliott
Miguel Abreu	352	3.0	58	-1	-0.5	Juan Sosa
Cody Overbeck	515	3.8	81	0	-0.6	Ryan Mulhern
Josh Fields	381	3.7	76	-2	-0.6	Pat Sheridan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Cliff Lee	L	35	28	28	198.3	195	31	20	180	72	67
Cole Hamels	L	30	31	31	209.3	194	46	21	189	82	77
Kyle Kendrick	R	29	31	24	151.0	98	40	17	158	76	71
Roy Halladay	R	37	20	20	118.7	98	34	14	116	58	54
Jonathan Pettibone	R	23	24	24	135.0	85	47	12	142	67	63
Jesse Biddle	L	22	27	27	133.3	127	74	13	123	67	63
Jonathan Papelbon	R	33	59	0	59.3	67	13	6	51	21	20
Antonio Bastardo	L	28	57	0	48.7	62	22	5	37	18	17
Mike Adams	R	35	44	0	39.7	38	13	4	36	17	16
Justin De Fratus	R	26	59	0	62.0	54	26	5	58	29	27
Michael Stutes	R	27	36	0	40.7	33	19	4	39	20	19
Jake Diekman	L	27	65	0	62.0	63	44	5	56	31	29
Kyle Simon	R	23	41	5	78.7	44	27	8	86	43	40
Joe Savery	L	28	38	0	43.7	35	18	5	43	22	21
Jeremy Horst	L	28	43	0	49.7	40	21	5	51	26	24
John Lannan	L	29	23	23	124.7	68	55	14	141	75	70
Adam Morgan	L	24	22	22	106.0	74	41	15	115	64	60
Cesar Jimenez	L	29	45	1	67.0	50	36	6	68	36	34
Mauricio Robles	L	25	55	0	62.0	56	51	4	57	33	31
Shawn Camp	R	38	51	0	52.0	36	15	7	56	29	27
Luis Garcia	R	27	58	0	69.3	54	36	8	68	37	35
Chad Durbin	R	36	39	0	38.3	33	16	6	40	22	21
B.J. Rosenberg	R	28	44	10	88.3	65	45	11	93	52	49
Phillippe Aumont	R	25	55	0	56.3	55	48	4	52	32	30
Mike MacDougal	R	37	40	0	39.0	29	28	5	41	26	24
Austin Wright	L	24	26	19	108.0	75	62	15	115	70	65
Zach Miner	R	32	31	10	70.7	38	38	9	81	47	44
Ethan Martin	R	24	30	21	116.3	95	87	16	122	79	74
Greg Smith	L	30	23	18	107.3	46	41	18	131	75	70
Tom Cochran	L	31	23	18	92.0	53	67	14	105	70	65
Rob Rasmussen	L	25	26	24	122.0	81	77	21	138	89	83

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Cliff Lee	198.3	805	24.2%	3.8%	.286	3.04	3.04	79	79
Cole Hamels	209.3	863	22.4%	5.3%	.282	3.31	3.32	86	86
Kyle Kendrick	151.0	651	15.1%	6.2%	.288	4.23	4.17	110	108
Roy Halladay	118.7	506	19.4%	6.8%	.288	4.10	4.02	106	105
Jonathan Pettibone	135.0	594	14.2%	7.9%	.293	4.20	4.19	109	109
Jesse Biddle	133.3	597	21.4%	12.4%	.292	4.25	4.42	111	115
Jonathan Papelbon	59.3	242	27.6%	5.3%	.293	3.03	2.89	79	75
Antonio Bastardo	48.7	205	30.4%	10.8%	.282	3.14	3.26	82	85
Mike Adams	39.7	168	22.8%	7.5%	.284	3.63	3.63	94	94
Justin De Fratus	62.0	270	20.1%	9.6%	.296	3.92	3.93	102	102
Michael Stutes	40.7	180	18.3%	10.6%	.287	4.20	4.32	109	112
Jake Diekman	62.0	285	22.2%	15.3%	.299	4.21	4.22	109	110
Kyle Simon	78.7	349	12.7%	7.8%	.295	4.58	4.52	119	117
Joe Savery	43.7	192	18.3%	9.2%	.289	4.33	4.40	112	114
Jeremy Horst	49.7	221	18.1%	9.7%	.299	4.35	4.34	113	113
John Lannan	124.7	570	12.0%	9.7%	.298	5.05	4.99	131	130
Adam Morgan	106.0	474	15.7%	8.6%	.296	5.09	4.97	132	129
Cesar Jimenez	67.0	305	16.6%	11.8%	.297	4.57	4.61	119	120
Mauricio Robles	62.0	294	19.0%	17.4%	.295	4.50	4.70	117	122
Shawn Camp	52.0	227	15.8%	6.6%	.293	4.67	4.39	121	114
Luis Garcia	69.3	312	17.3%	11.4%	.287	4.54	4.80	118	125
Chad Durbin	38.3	171	19.4%	9.4%	.297	4.93	4.59	128	119
B.J. Rosenberg	88.3	403	16.0%	11.1%	.297	4.99	4.96	130	129
Phillippe Aumont	56.3	269	20.6%	17.9%	.304	4.79	4.95	125	129
Mike MacDougal	39.0	186	15.7%	15.1%	.296	5.54	5.47	144	142
Austin Wright	108.0	501	15.0%	12.4%	.293	5.42	5.48	141	142
Zach Miner	70.7	331	11.4%	11.6%	.297	5.60	5.56	146	144
Ethan Martin	116.3	558	17.0%	15.5%	.303	5.72	5.71	149	148
Greg Smith	107.3	493	9.4%	8.2%	.297	5.87	5.77	153	150
Tom Cochran	92.0	449	11.7%	15.0%	.297	6.36	6.46	165	168
Rob Rasmussen	122.0	581	14.0%	13.3%	.297	6.12	6.22	159	162

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Cliff Lee	198.3	8.83	1.39	0.92	127	4.5	Jeff Fassero
Cole Hamels	209.3	8.33	1.99	0.91	117	4.1	Terry Mulholland
Kyle Kendrick	151.0	5.85	2.40	0.99	91	1.2	Steve Finch
Roy Halladay	118.7	7.43	2.60	1.05	94	1.2	Milt Wilcox
Jonathan Pettibone	135.0	5.64	3.14	0.77	92	1.2	Cha-Seung Baek
Jesse Biddle	133.3	8.60	4.99	0.91	91	1.1	David West
Jonathan Papelbon	59.3	10.12	1.95	0.88	127	0.8	Rafael Betancourt
Antonio Bastardo	48.7	11.54	4.10	0.89	123	0.6	Will Ohman
Mike Adams	39.7	8.65	2.86	0.99	106	0.2	Donn Pall
Justin De Fratus	62.0	7.91	3.76	0.77	98	0.1	John Stuper
Michael Stutes	40.7	7.29	4.22	0.89	92	-0.1	Joel Moore
Jake Diekman	62.0	9.20	6.33	0.68	92	-0.1	Greg McCarthy
Kyle Simon	78.7	5.06	3.10	0.89	84	-0.1	Jack Cassel
Joe Savery	43.7	7.24	3.65	1.07	89	-0.1	Sean Fesh
Jeremy Horst	49.7	7.24	3.88	0.94	89	-0.2	Matt Dunbar
John Lannan	124.7	4.93	3.98	1.00	76	-0.2	Jimmy Anderson
Adam Morgan	106.0	6.30	3.44	1.31	76	-0.2	Brian Barkley
Cesar Jimenez	67.0	6.78	4.84	0.83	85	-0.3	Tom Doyle
Mauricio Robles	62.0	8.13	7.45	0.56	86	-0.3	Scott Wiggins
Shawn Camp	52.0	6.22	2.59	1.24	83	-0.4	Boom-Boom Beck
Luis Garcia	69.3	7.00	4.63	1.02	85	-0.4	Jake Robbins
Chad Durbin	38.3	7.78	3.78	1.36	78	-0.4	Ben Weber
B.J. Rosenberg	88.3	6.58	4.54	1.09	77	-0.4	Marty McLeary
Phillippe Aumont	56.3	8.84	7.67	0.71	81	-0.5	Bill Bene
Mike MacDougal	39.0	6.74	6.49	1.13	70	-0.7	Ben Weber
Austin Wright	108.0	6.28	5.19	1.23	71	-0.7	Matt Jarvis
Zach Miner	70.7	4.80	4.88	1.18	69	-0.8	Hal Elliott
Ethan Martin	116.3	7.33	6.71	1.21	67	-1.2	Willie Hardwick
Greg Smith	107.3	3.89	3.40	1.48	66	-1.3	Dave Gassner
Tom Cochran	92.0	5.15	6.60	1.39	61	-1.6	Dan Smith
Rob Rasmussen	122.0	6.01	5.72	1.58	63	-1.8	Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.