2014 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Philadelphia.

Batters
There are obvious caveats one should append to the sentence which follows, and yet it’s also true. The St. Louis Cardinals, who’ve just been to the World Series, are likely to enter the 2014 season with a better complement of position players than with which they entered 2013.

Part of that, of course, is having a shortstop at all. Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, combined, were never an ideal substitute for Rafael Furcal. That next year’s shortstop is Jhonny Peralta — about whom ZiPS is fairly optimistic — represents a decided advantage. That Matt Carpenter emerged as very possibly an above-average major leaguer has also benefited the club.

In terms of who precisely will play where precisely in 2014, there are some uncertainties regarding that. For the purposes of the depth chart below, I’ve put Allen Craig in right field and Matt Adams at first base. In reality, Jon Jay and (possibly) Oscar Taveras will also play roles with the club, however.

Pitchers
Adam Wainwright was as good in 2013, and perhaps better, as/than he’d ever been prior to the season he missed from Tommy John surgery, almost halving his career walk rate (down to 3.7%) while striking out batters at a pace similar to past seasons. Behind him in the rotation will almost certainly be, in whichever order, young right-handers Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha. The former’s conspicuous absence during the playoffs remains something of a mystery, but ZiPS remains optimistic enough about Miller based on the entirety of his resume.

After that triumvirate, St. Louis features a second threesome, any of whom could positively contribute to the rotation: Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn. The latter two have pitched out of the bullpen before, and could once again join a relief corps whose fastballs — much like late-90s hip hop group The Hot Boy$ — are on fire. Because they’re thrown with “heat,” is what the author means to say.

Bench/Prospects
Because he’s both (a) good and also (b) likely to receive quite a lot in the way of playing time, it’s probably fair to regard second baseman Kolten Wong as a preseason contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award. ZiPS and Steamer, both, regard him as an average major-leaguer already. Beyond Wong is, of course, highly praised outfield prospect Oscar Taveras, who lost much of his 2013 to injury. Taveras and Jon Jay are both candidates to record a non-negligible amount of plate appearances despite their absence from the depth chart below. Less celebrated prospects Jermaine Curtis, Greg Garcia, and Randal Grichuk (acquired along with Peter Bourjos from the Angels) — along with on-base-magician and Fringe Five regular Mike O’Neill — are all potential contributors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

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Batters, Rates and Averages

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Batters, Assorted Other

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Pitchers, Counting Stats

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Pitchers, Rates and Averages

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Pitchers, Assorted Other

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.