2014 ZiPS Projections – St. Louis Cardinals

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the St. Louis Cardinals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Boston / Philadelphia.

Batters
There are obvious caveats one should append to the sentence which follows, and yet it’s also true. The St. Louis Cardinals, who’ve just been to the World Series, are likely to enter the 2014 season with a better complement of position players than with which they entered 2013.

Part of that, of course, is having a shortstop at all. Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma, combined, were never an ideal substitute for Rafael Furcal. That next year’s shortstop is Jhonny Peralta — about whom ZiPS is fairly optimistic — represents a decided advantage. That Matt Carpenter emerged as very possibly an above-average major leaguer has also benefited the club.

In terms of who precisely will play where precisely in 2014, there are some uncertainties regarding that. For the purposes of the depth chart below, I’ve put Allen Craig in right field and Matt Adams at first base. In reality, Jon Jay and (possibly) Oscar Taveras will also play roles with the club, however.

Pitchers
Adam Wainwright was as good in 2013, and perhaps better, as/than he’d ever been prior to the season he missed from Tommy John surgery, almost halving his career walk rate (down to 3.7%) while striking out batters at a pace similar to past seasons. Behind him in the rotation will almost certainly be, in whichever order, young right-handers Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha. The former’s conspicuous absence during the playoffs remains something of a mystery, but ZiPS remains optimistic enough about Miller based on the entirety of his resume.

After that triumvirate, St. Louis features a second threesome, any of whom could positively contribute to the rotation: Jaime Garcia, Joe Kelly, and Lance Lynn. The latter two have pitched out of the bullpen before, and could once again join a relief corps whose fastballs — much like late-90s hip hop group The Hot Boy$ — are on fire. Because they’re thrown with “heat,” is what the author means to say.

Bench/Prospects
Because he’s both (a) good and also (b) likely to receive quite a lot in the way of playing time, it’s probably fair to regard second baseman Kolten Wong as a preseason contender for the NL Rookie of the Year award. ZiPS and Steamer, both, regard him as an average major-leaguer already. Beyond Wong is, of course, highly praised outfield prospect Oscar Taveras, who lost much of his 2013 to injury. Taveras and Jon Jay are both candidates to record a non-negligible amount of plate appearances despite their absence from the depth chart below. Less celebrated prospects Jermaine Curtis, Greg Garcia, and Randal Grichuk (acquired along with Peter Bourjos from the Angels) — along with on-base-magician and Fringe Five regular Mike O’Neill — are all potential contributors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Cardinals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yadier Molina	R	31	C	546	54	147	31	0	13	73	6	3
Matt Carpenter	L	28	3B	615	79	146	36	5	10	69	4	3
Matt Holliday	R	34	LF	577	79	140	30	2	21	85	5	2
Jhonny Peralta	R	32	SS	520	49	127	29	2	12	64	2	2
Peter Bourjos	R	27	CF	385	54	90	14	8	9	41	12	3
Kolten Wong	L	23	2B	555	60	136	22	6	8	49	19	5
Jon Jay	L	29	CF	570	64	137	25	3	7	54	12	6
Oscar Taveras	L	22	CF	388	45	103	23	4	9	50	7	1
Allen Craig	R	29	1B	503	61	130	26	2	16	84	3	0
Carlos Beltran	B	37	RF	548	64	133	24	3	23	82	5	3
Randal Grichuk	R	22	RF	585	69	139	28	8	17	68	9	6
Scott Moore	L	30	3B	474	50	103	25	1	12	56	1	2
Rafael Furcal	B	36	SS	328	40	77	13	2	5	30	8	3
Greg Garcia	L	24	SS	482	51	99	22	4	3	35	10	4
Matt Adams	L	25	1B	382	45	95	20	0	17	56	1	1
Jermaine Curtis	R	26	3B	440	42	98	16	2	3	34	5	1
Stephen Piscotty	R	23	RF	508	52	125	25	2	10	44	10	5
Mike O’Neill	L	26	LF	476	52	114	16	2	1	31	11	4
Audry Perez	R	25	C	339	26	79	15	0	4	35	0	1
Thomas Pham	R	26	CF	237	24	49	9	4	4	21	4	3
Pete Kozma	R	26	SS	522	50	104	21	2	5	52	5	2
Tony Cruz	R	27	C	193	18	43	10	1	2	22	0	1
Daniel Descalso	L	27	SS	418	47	92	21	3	5	41	6	3
Starlin Rodriguez	R	24	2B	471	44	103	19	4	6	40	10	7
Ruben Gotay	B	31	3B	490	48	101	17	1	7	43	8	4
Shane Robinson	R	29	RF	230	27	52	8	2	3	23	5	1
Chad Huffman	R	29	LF	387	39	80	19	1	8	40	2	0
Rob Johnson	R	31	C	252	22	51	10	2	4	23	1	2
Brock Peterson	R	30	1B	399	40	85	18	1	14	46	1	1
James Ramsey	L	24	CF	503	51	92	14	4	8	38	9	4
Luis Mateo	R	24	SS	405	41	87	13	1	5	34	12	7
Joey Butler	R	28	RF	557	55	121	24	2	10	48	4	3
Justin Christian	R	34	LF	444	52	99	18	3	4	35	18	4
Ty Wigginton	R	36	1B	264	26	53	10	0	6	29	2	1
Anthony Garcia	R	22	LF	443	42	86	19	2	13	47	5	5
Xavier Scruggs	R	26	1B	532	47	92	18	1	16	53	6	4

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yadier Molina	546	6.4%	10.1%	.140	.307	.293	.342	.433	.334
Matt Carpenter	615	10.1%	16.4%	.142	.314	.272	.351	.413	.334
Matt Holliday	577	10.4%	17.3%	.192	.307	.277	.360	.468	.359
Jhonny Peralta	520	7.3%	18.1%	.145	.307	.267	.320	.412	.317
Peter Bourjos	385	5.5%	21.8%	.164	.315	.259	.314	.424	.321
Kolten Wong	555	6.3%	14.1%	.114	.299	.266	.316	.380	.309
Jon Jay	570	7.2%	15.3%	.103	.314	.272	.339	.375	.309
Oscar Taveras	388	5.7%	12.4%	.162	.308	.287	.331	.448	.334
Allen Craig	503	7.0%	17.5%	.170	.318	.284	.338	.454	.346
Carlos Beltran	548	7.8%	17.7%	.199	.287	.267	.324	.466	.335
Randal Grichuk	585	3.6%	18.1%	.172	.282	.252	.286	.424	.306
Scott Moore	474	7.2%	21.9%	.148	.288	.241	.304	.389	.303
Rafael Furcal	328	7.3%	11.9%	.107	.281	.258	.316	.366	.301
Greg Garcia	482	9.1%	19.5%	.093	.295	.235	.320	.328	.289
Matt Adams	382	6.0%	26.2%	.198	.322	.265	.309	.464	.336
Jermaine Curtis	440	8.9%	13.9%	.075	.293	.255	.336	.330	.301
Stephen Piscotty	508	5.7%	12.2%	.126	.288	.266	.318	.391	.312
Mike O’Neill	476	11.6%	9.0%	.056	.304	.275	.360	.331	.312
Audry Perez	339	1.5%	18.6%	.082	.285	.240	.257	.322	.254
Thomas Pham	237	8.0%	29.1%	.136	.317	.229	.297	.364	.291
Pete Kozma	522	7.5%	21.3%	.084	.273	.219	.277	.304	.254
Tony Cruz	193	4.7%	20.2%	.099	.291	.238	.276	.337	.264
Daniel Descalso	418	7.4%	17.0%	.112	.289	.246	.308	.358	.284
Starlin Rodriguez	471	4.9%	24.8%	.104	.311	.238	.289	.343	.277
Ruben Gotay	490	9.2%	22.0%	.091	.287	.230	.301	.320	.279
Shane Robinson	230	8.3%	12.2%	.102	.277	.254	.319	.356	.299
Chad Huffman	387	8.3%	22.7%	.130	.283	.231	.301	.360	.295
Rob Johnson	252	6.3%	19.8%	.112	.260	.219	.270	.330	.262
Brock Peterson	399	6.5%	26.6%	.169	.285	.232	.288	.401	.303
James Ramsey	503	10.1%	31.2%	.105	.302	.209	.297	.314	.274
Luis Mateo	405	3.7%	21.5%	.079	.282	.228	.264	.306	.252
Joey Butler	557	8.4%	28.5%	.116	.330	.241	.311	.357	.297
Justin Christian	444	5.2%	13.5%	.087	.271	.240	.286	.328	.276
Ty Wigginton	264	7.6%	22.0%	.118	.266	.223	.288	.340	.276
Anthony Garcia	443	5.2%	31.2%	.152	.281	.210	.265	.362	.274
Xavier Scruggs	532	9.4%	38.9%	.145	.305	.196	.284	.341	.281

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Yadier Molina	546	5.7	114	9	5.0	Thurman Munson
Matt Carpenter	615	5.3	112	0	3.4	Lou Whitaker
Matt Holliday	577	6.3	128	-3	3.0	Bob Elliott
Jhonny Peralta	520	4.8	102	2	2.8	Travis Fryman
Peter Bourjos	385	5.0	103	5	2.3	Deion Sanders
Kolten Wong	555	4.6	93	3	2.3	Dalton Jones
Jon Jay	570	4.7	98	-3	1.8	Del Unser
Oscar Taveras	388	5.8	114	-4	1.8	Shawn Green
Allen Craig	503	5.9	118	-1	1.8	Lamar Johnson
Carlos Beltran	548	5.5	116	-5	1.7	Bobby Bonilla
Randal Grichuk	585	4.3	94	6	1.4	Chris James
Scott Moore	474	4.1	91	-5	1.3	Mike Pagliarulo
Rafael Furcal	328	4.3	89	-4	1.2	Jose Vizcaino
Greg Garcia	482	3.8	81	-4	1.0	Sam Khalifa
Matt Adams	382	5.2	111	-1	1.0	Reggie Jefferson
Jermaine Curtis	440	4.1	87	-3	1.0	Scott Campbell
Stephen Piscotty	508	4.6	96	0	0.9	Ron MacDonald
Mike O’Neill	476	4.5	94	-1	0.9	Greg Gross
Audry Perez	339	2.9	60	5	0.7	Hector Kuilan
Thomas Pham	237	3.7	83	1	0.5	Damon Mashore
Pete Kozma	522	2.9	62	5	0.5	Marc Mirizzi
Tony Cruz	193	3.2	70	2	0.5	Carlos Corporan
Daniel Descalso	418	4.0	85	-6	0.5	Vance Law
Starlin Rodriguez	471	3.4	75	1	0.5	Vance Law
Ruben Gotay	490	3.4	73	-4	0.4	Dave Rohde
Shane Robinson	230	4.3	88	1	0.4	Bubba Carpenter
Chad Huffman	387	3.9	83	-1	0.1	Mike Colangelo
Rob Johnson	252	2.9	66	-2	0.1	Henry Blanco
Brock Peterson	399	4.0	89	0	0.0	Chris Widger
James Ramsey	503	3.2	70	-3	0.0	Mike Neill
Luis Mateo	405	2.8	58	1	-0.1	Diory Hernandez
Joey Butler	557	3.9	85	-5	-0.2	Jeremy Slayden
Justin Christian	444	3.6	70	1	-0.4	Thomas Johnson
Ty Wigginton	264	3.4	74	-4	-1.0	Todd Zeile
Anthony Garcia	443	3.1	72	-4	-1.1	Brandon Sing
Xavier Scruggs	532	3.2	73	-3	-1.3	Benji Simonton

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Adam Wainwright	R	32	31	31	208.3	183	39	15	197	79	74
Shelby Miller	R	23	31	31	174.7	171	55	18	154	68	64
Lance Lynn	R	27	33	27	173.7	166	62	13	160	73	68
Michael Wacha	R	22	28	24	155.3	135	45	15	142	65	61
Trevor Rosenthal	R	24	75	0	79.7	103	24	5	60	22	21
Joe Kelly	R	26	33	22	146.7	97	51	12	150	67	63
Jaime Garcia	L	27	19	19	116.3	93	29	10	119	52	49
Carlos Martinez	R	22	32	18	108.3	84	39	8	106	48	45
Tyler Lyons	L	26	28	21	127.0	88	41	14	132	66	62
Jason Motte	R	32	52	0	49.7	50	14	5	42	18	17
Kevin Siegrist	L	24	58	0	55.3	58	26	4	45	21	20
John Axford	R	31	71	0	66.0	72	26	6	59	28	26
Edward Mujica	R	30	64	0	63.0	47	10	7	61	27	25
Boone Whiting	R	24	22	21	102.7	72	39	12	107	56	52
Randy Choate	L	38	63	0	31.0	26	11	2	28	13	12
Lee Stoppelman	L	24	44	0	51.0	48	24	4	46	22	21
Seth Maness	R	25	76	0	78.3	45	14	8	83	36	34
John Gast	L	25	19	19	100.7	62	41	10	108	57	53
Chris Carpenter	R	39	2	2	9.3	6	4	1	10	5	5
Victor Marte	R	33	51	0	54.0	40	26	5	55	28	26
Keith Butler	R	25	52	0	56.0	48	29	6	53	29	27
Sam Freeman	L	27	63	0	70.7	50	35	6	71	36	34
Barret Browning	L	29	35	0	40.7	27	19	4	42	22	21
Kevin Thomas	R	27	49	0	63.7	49	30	8	65	35	33
Eric Fornataro	R	26	51	0	63.3	36	29	6	68	35	33
Scott McGregor	R	27	21	20	107.7	56	42	15	123	67	63
Jorge Rondon	R	26	52	0	60.3	36	41	6	65	39	36

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Adam Wainwright	208.3	861	21.2%	4.5%	.294	3.20	2.93	87	79
Shelby Miller	174.7	733	23.3%	7.5%	.281	3.30	3.57	89	97
Lance Lynn	173.7	743	22.4%	8.4%	.297	3.52	3.41	95	92
Michael Wacha	155.3	654	20.7%	7.0%	.280	3.53	3.65	96	99
Trevor Rosenthal	79.7	322	31.9%	7.4%	.293	2.37	2.51	64	68
Joe Kelly	146.7	640	15.2%	7.9%	.290	3.87	3.93	105	106
Jaime Garcia	116.3	497	18.6%	5.8%	.299	3.79	3.42	103	93
Carlos Martinez	108.3	470	17.9%	8.3%	.297	3.74	3.79	101	102
Tyler Lyons	127.0	554	15.9%	7.5%	.293	4.39	4.33	119	117
Jason Motte	49.7	205	24.5%	6.8%	.279	3.08	3.27	83	89
Kevin Siegrist	55.3	237	24.6%	10.9%	.280	3.25	3.50	88	95
John Axford	66.0	283	25.5%	9.2%	.296	3.55	3.32	96	90
Edward Mujica	63.0	260	18.0%	3.9%	.276	3.57	3.54	97	96
Boone Whiting	102.7	455	15.8%	8.6%	.295	4.56	4.54	123	123
Randy Choate	31.0	132	19.4%	8.5%	.287	3.48	3.65	94	99
Lee Stoppelman	51.0	224	21.2%	10.9%	.292	3.71	3.79	100	103
Seth Maness	78.3	332	13.5%	4.2%	.290	3.91	3.77	106	102
John Gast	100.7	451	13.7%	9.0%	.295	4.74	4.59	128	124
Chris Carpenter	9.3	41	13.9%	8.4%	.293	4.82	4.93	130	133
Victor Marte	54.0	243	16.4%	10.7%	.299	4.33	4.20	117	114
Keith Butler	56.0	251	19.3%	11.6%	.292	4.34	4.42	117	120
Sam Freeman	70.7	317	15.7%	10.9%	.289	4.33	4.44	117	120
Barret Browning	40.7	183	14.9%	10.6%	.290	4.65	4.54	126	123
Kevin Thomas	63.7	286	17.1%	10.5%	.295	4.66	4.74	126	128
Eric Fornataro	63.3	288	12.4%	10.2%	.294	4.69	4.67	127	126
Scott McGregor	107.7	488	11.4%	8.5%	.294	5.27	5.19	142	140
Jorge Rondon	60.3	287	12.7%	14.3%	.294	5.37	5.40	145	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Adam Wainwright	208.3	7.88	1.67	0.66	117	4.0	Mike Mussina
Shelby Miller	174.7	8.80	2.83	0.95	114	3.2	Jack McDowell
Lance Lynn	173.7	8.60	3.21	0.68	106	2.6	Darryl Kile
Michael Wacha	155.3	7.83	2.64	0.89	106	2.3	Jose Guzman
Trevor Rosenthal	79.7	11.63	2.68	0.61	158	1.6	Antonio Osuna
Joe Kelly	146.7	5.95	3.12	0.71	97	1.5	Aaron Cook
Jaime Garcia	116.3	7.16	2.25	0.79	99	1.4	John Halama
Carlos Martinez	108.3	7.00	3.25	0.65	100	1.3	Jose Capellan
Tyler Lyons	127.0	6.23	2.93	0.98	85	0.5	Jeff Urban
Jason Motte	49.7	9.09	2.51	0.84	122	0.5	Jerry Spradlin
Kevin Siegrist	55.3	9.50	4.23	0.71	115	0.5	Darren Oliver
John Axford	66.0	9.84	3.53	0.87	106	0.4	Frank LaCorte
Edward Mujica	63.0	6.69	1.45	1.02	105	0.3	Joseph Haines
Boone Whiting	102.7	6.31	3.44	1.02	82	0.3	Nick DeBarr
Randy Choate	31.0	7.44	3.24	0.56	108	0.2	Brian Shouse
Lee Stoppelman	51.0	8.38	4.31	0.68	101	0.2	Darren Oliver
Seth Maness	78.3	5.16	1.59	0.88	96	0.1	Randy Graham
John Gast	100.7	5.52	3.64	0.92	79	0.1	John Courtright
Chris Carpenter	9.3	5.57	3.38	1.11	78	0.0	Steve Ontiveros
Victor Marte	54.0	6.65	4.35	0.77	87	-0.2	David Lee
Keith Butler	56.0	7.78	4.68	0.94	86	-0.2	Pete Sikaras
Sam Freeman	70.7	6.33	4.42	0.78	87	-0.3	Philip Barzilla
Barret Browning	40.7	6.04	4.28	0.87	81	-0.3	Ken Vining
Kevin Thomas	63.7	6.92	4.24	1.07	80	-0.5	Paul Wilmet
Eric Fornataro	63.3	5.07	4.19	0.78	80	-0.5	Scott Munter
Scott McGregor	107.7	4.65	3.48	1.23	71	-0.6	Kirk McDonald
Jorge Rondon	60.3	5.41	6.11	0.93	70	-1.0	Darin Moore

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.