2014 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the entirely venerable pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections were released at FanGraphs last year. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Kansas City / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / St. Louis / Tampa Bay.

Batters
From their top-five position players (Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Brett Lawrie, Colby Rasmus, and Jose Reyes) the Blue Jays are projected to extract 16.4 wins, according to ZiPS. A convenient number, that, for the sake of constructing an Intriguing Narrative, on account of it’s precisely the number of wins produced by all Toronto field players in 2013. If the club can manage to surround their five best hitters with not-worse-than-replacement-level players, the reasoning goes, then they’ll be at least as valuable as last year.

General manager Alex Anthopoulos et al. do appear to have taken steps towards this end. J.P. Arencibia and Emilio Bonifacio, for example, were among the club’s most grievous offenders last year, combining for a negative win. And while, owing to regression, neither would likely be expected to perform so badly in 2014, neither will have the chance, it appears, as they’re now employed by Texas and Kansas City, respectively. Second base remains an issue, however: ZiPS projects Ryan Goins* and Maicer Izturis for a collective 0.5 WAR in over 900 plate appearances.

*Note: the author accidentally credited Goins with a 2 WAR in the depth chart he tweeted yesterday (Wednesday) afternoon. Apologies.

Pitchers
The reader should note that the starting pitchers depicted in the depth-chart graphic below are arranged not in expected order of rotational slot, but rather by projected WAR, according to ZiPS. The reader should also note that the fifth spot in the Blue Jays’ rotation appears very much there for the taking. “Who will it be?” a certain sort of reader might wonder. “Ideally, Marcus Stroman,” ZiPS is answering implicitly.

With regard to the Toronto bullpen, the author states only the facts when he notes that both Casey Janssen and Sergio Santos have served as the club’s closer in recent years. The author continues stating facts by noting that whichever of them is closing games doesn’t appear to matter very much. That pair, plus left-handed option Brett Cecil, all seem to be capable high-leverage relievers.

Bench/Prospects
As noted by Marc Hulet in the introduction to his top-10 prospect list for the Toronto organization, the Blue Jays do have some promising, high-upside talent; however, Hulet continues, much of that talent is not figuratively knocking on the figurative door of the major leagues. Unsurprisingly, then, one doesn’t find much in the way of rookie-eligible talent projected by ZiPS to produce much in the majors. Except Marcus Stroman, that is. Or maybe Sean Nolin. And maybe Andrew Burns, finally.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Jays, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Bautista	R	33	RF	498	74	110	21	1	28	76	7	3
Brett Lawrie	R	24	3B	542	64	131	26	5	16	62	12	5
Edwin Encarnacion	R	31	1B	564	78	135	27	1	30	89	8	2
Jose Reyes	B	31	SS	574	75	152	29	6	11	47	27	8
Colby Rasmus	L	27	CF	536	70	121	26	3	23	71	4	3
Dioner Navarro	B	30	C	279	31	66	10	1	9	34	0	1
Melky Cabrera	B	29	LF	575	76	155	30	5	12	63	11	5
Anthony Gose	L	23	CF	616	68	137	25	10	6	46	29	13
Adam Lind	L	30	1B	524	57	126	23	1	22	72	1	0
Erik Kratz	R	34	C	292	31	62	14	0	12	40	1	0
Josh Thole	L	27	C	363	35	83	16	1	6	33	0	1
A.J. Jimenez	R	24	C	312	28	74	16	1	4	28	4	3
Andrew Burns	R	23	3B	501	55	113	27	3	12	54	18	10
Kevin Pillar	R	25	CF	646	64	157	32	4	9	63	19	9
Brent Morel	R	27	3B	450	46	99	23	2	7	40	8	3
Ryan Goins	L	26	SS	564	49	126	27	3	6	50	5	5
Steve Tolleson	R	30	2B	441	45	93	20	1	7	39	10	3
Dan Johnson	L	34	1B	527	60	104	21	0	19	62	1	0
Andy LaRoche	R	30	3B	382	38	85	19	1	8	39	2	2
Moises Sierra	R	25	RF	534	57	121	23	3	15	61	9	6
Ramon Hernandez	R	38	C	117	9	25	6	0	4	14	1	0
Mark DeRosa	R	39	2B	173	17	35	9	1	4	23	0	0
Ryan Schimpf	L	26	3B	480	48	83	20	3	15	52	3	2
Maicer Izturis	B	33	2B	372	37	88	17	0	4	32	7	5
Munenori Kawasaki	L	33	SS	397	44	88	9	4	1	32	10	5
Jared Goedert	R	29	3B	496	52	103	26	1	13	55	2	0
Ryan Langerhans	L	34	LF	328	36	58	11	2	10	31	3	4
Luis Jimenez	L	32	1B	445	51	101	20	1	14	54	2	1
Mike Nickeas	R	31	C	234	19	44	12	0	2	19	0	0
Jonathan Diaz	R	29	2B	448	40	85	13	1	2	27	9	4
Gabe Jacobo	R	27	1B	345	37	81	17	1	8	39	2	0
Ricardo Nanita	L	33	LF	318	30	73	13	0	6	30	4	2
Juan Perez	R	27	RF	549	61	123	29	5	9	55	15	8
Kenneth Wilson	R	24	CF	362	34	68	14	2	3	23	18	8
Adam Loewen	L	30	CF	465	42	88	20	1	10	43	5	4
Lance Zawadzki	B	29	2B	239	22	46	7	1	4	17	6	2
Brad Glenn	R	27	RF	520	47	101	23	1	18	60	3	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Bautista	498	15.3%	17.3%	.258	.270	.266	.382	.524	.385
Brett Lawrie	542	6.8%	17.5%	.170	.299	.266	.326	.436	.333
Edwin Encarnacion	564	11.5%	13.5%	.243	.271	.276	.363	.519	.377
Jose Reyes	574	7.1%	9.4%	.141	.303	.289	.339	.430	.333
Colby Rasmus	536	8.6%	27.2%	.209	.309	.251	.318	.460	.334
Dioner Navarro	279	7.9%	15.1%	.156	.282	.264	.325	.420	.319
Melky Cabrera	575	5.7%	13.2%	.143	.317	.290	.329	.433	.327
Anthony Gose	616	6.8%	26.0%	.113	.330	.244	.303	.357	.292
Adam Lind	524	8.0%	20.4%	.191	.295	.265	.323	.456	.336
Erik Kratz	292	6.8%	22.3%	.189	.262	.234	.295	.423	.308
Josh Thole	363	8.0%	15.4%	.110	.288	.254	.319	.364	.296
A.J. Jimenez	312	4.5%	18.9%	.102	.302	.253	.287	.355	.280
Andrew Burns	501	6.2%	23.2%	.149	.298	.245	.293	.394	.301
Kevin Pillar	646	3.7%	17.6%	.110	.303	.258	.291	.368	.289
Brent Morel	450	6.0%	22.2%	.115	.297	.238	.287	.353	.283
Ryan Goins	564	5.0%	21.5%	.097	.301	.241	.279	.338	.266
Steve Tolleson	441	7.7%	21.5%	.108	.289	.235	.297	.343	.286
Dan Johnson	527	11.4%	19.0%	.170	.247	.227	.319	.397	.315
Andy LaRoche	382	6.0%	16.0%	.128	.269	.241	.293	.369	.290
Moises Sierra	534	5.4%	25.5%	.151	.307	.245	.296	.396	.302
Ramon Hernandez	117	5.1%	18.8%	.167	.253	.231	.276	.398	.294
Mark DeRosa	173	11.6%	20.8%	.154	.277	.233	.324	.387	.312
Ryan Schimpf	480	8.8%	33.5%	.166	.267	.193	.273	.359	.280
Maicer Izturis	372	6.7%	10.8%	.085	.282	.259	.314	.344	.290
Munenori Kawasaki	397	6.5%	14.4%	.057	.289	.246	.302	.303	.267
Jared Goedert	496	7.3%	24.8%	.147	.279	.226	.282	.373	.289
Ryan Langerhans	328	11.0%	33.5%	.155	.282	.201	.291	.356	.284
Luis Jimenez	445	7.4%	20.7%	.157	.285	.248	.303	.405	.310
Mike Nickeas	234	6.4%	21.4%	.084	.261	.208	.268	.292	.250
Jonathan Diaz	448	8.7%	20.1%	.054	.277	.218	.299	.272	.259
Gabe Jacobo	345	4.3%	24.3%	.132	.309	.248	.284	.380	.293
Ricardo Nanita	318	4.4%	15.1%	.104	.271	.245	.281	.349	.277
Juan Perez	549	3.6%	24.2%	.126	.300	.237	.269	.363	.276
Kenneth Wilson	362	6.4%	29.0%	.083	.294	.207	.273	.290	.255
Adam Loewen	465	7.3%	33.1%	.121	.294	.206	.267	.327	.263
Lance Zawadzki	239	4.6%	27.2%	.094	.269	.205	.245	.299	.239
Brad Glenn	520	5.4%	33.5%	.163	.279	.208	.254	.371	.274

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Bautista	498	7.4	144	2	4.0	Dwight Evans
Brett Lawrie	542	5.3	106	6	3.3	Adrian Beltre
Edwin Encarnacion	564	7.1	137	-3	3.2	Richie Zisk
Jose Reyes	574	5.8	108	-4	3.1	Barry Larkin
Colby Rasmus	536	5.2	109	1	2.8	Ryan Church
Dioner Navarro	279	4.9	101	0	1.5	Alan Ashby
Melky Cabrera	575	5.4	106	-4	1.2	Gregg Jefferies
Anthony Gose	616	3.9	79	1	1.1	Herm Winningham
Adam Lind	524	5.4	109	-2	1.1	Larry Sheets
Erik Kratz	292	4.4	93	-3	1.1	Joe Oliver
Josh Thole	363	4.1	86	-3	1.0	Bruce Benedict
A.J. Jimenez	312	3.6	74	3	1.0	Kirt Manwaring
Andrew Burns	501	4.1	85	-1	0.9	Danny Klassen
Kevin Pillar	646	3.9	79	0	0.8	Ray Cabrera
Brent Morel	450	3.6	74	2	0.5	Adam Pavkovich
Ryan Goins	564	3.3	68	2	0.4	Gregorio Petit
Steve Tolleson	441	3.7	74	-1	0.4	Andy Beinbrink
Dan Johnson	527	4.5	94	0	0.4	Pete O’Brien
Andy LaRoche	382	3.8	79	-1	0.3	Stu Cole
Moises Sierra	534	4.1	87	0	0.2	Pedro Swann
Ramon Hernandez	117	4.0	81	-2	0.2	Raul Chavez
Mark DeRosa	173	4.4	93	-3	0.2	Rene Gonzales
Ryan Schimpf	480	3.3	71	0	0.2	Paul Gonzalez
Maicer Izturis	372	3.8	80	-3	0.1	Craig Wilson
Munenori Kawasaki	397	3.3	66	-1	0.1	Jose Uribe
Jared Goedert	496	3.7	77	-4	0.1	Dave Baker
Ryan Langerhans	328	3.3	75	3	0.0	Dann Howitt
Luis Jimenez	445	4.4	91	-1	0.0	Casey Parsons
Mike Nickeas	234	2.7	53	-2	-0.2	Chad Moeller
Jonathan Diaz	448	2.8	58	1	-0.3	Drew Niles
Gabe Jacobo	345	4.0	79	-1	-0.5	Rich Murray
Ricardo Nanita	318	3.5	71	-1	-0.6	Joe Orsulak
Juan Perez	549	3.4	71	1	-0.8	Alexis Gomez
Kenneth Wilson	362	2.8	54	-4	-1.0	Michael Thomas
Adam Loewen	465	2.9	61	-5	-1.0	Ben Harrison
Lance Zawadzki	239	2.6	48	-4	-1.0	Caonabo Cosme
Brad Glenn	520	3.2	68	-5	-1.5	Troy Farnsworth

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	SO	BB	HR	H	R	ER
R.A. Dickey	R	39	30	29	195.7	162	56	27	186	93	87
Brandon Morrow	R	29	23	23	125.7	137	49	15	113	58	54
Mark Buehrle	L	35	27	27	168.7	110	39	23	181	87	81
Marcus Stroman	R	23	21	21	114.3	113	28	20	113	60	56
Sean Nolin	L	24	22	21	107.7	93	40	14	111	58	54
J.A. Happ	L	31	24	23	125.0	112	56	17	124	70	65
Brett Cecil	L	27	65	0	66.0	73	24	6	56	26	24
Casey Janssen	R	32	56	0	53.3	55	13	5	45	19	18
Aaron Loup	L	26	67	0	72.7	58	17	7	71	32	30
Drew Hutchison	R	23	14	13	59.3	50	24	8	60	32	30
Sergio Santos	R	30	35	0	32.0	37	11	3	26	13	12
Buzz Oliver	L	43	47	0	44.0	39	13	5	41	19	18
Steve Delabar	R	30	56	0	62.3	78	36	8	52	29	27
Esmil Rogers	R	28	44	13	112.0	90	40	16	120	64	60
Neil Wagner	R	30	57	0	59.0	57	25	7	56	29	27
Luis Perez	L	29	21	0	24.3	22	10	3	23	12	11
Dustin McGowan	R	32	35	0	35.7	36	20	4	33	18	17
Jeremy Jeffress	R	26	45	0	52.7	46	31	5	51	28	26
Marcus Walden	R	25	26	22	125.7	58	50	16	147	79	74
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	R	29	30	16	115.0	80	45	18	127	72	67
John Stilson	R	23	38	0	48.3	40	20	7	49	27	25
Mike Broadway	R	27	26	0	32.3	25	14	5	34	19	18
Mickey Storey	R	28	49	0	70.3	63	25	11	72	40	37
Todd Redmond	R	29	24	22	119.7	96	41	25	132	78	73
Thad Weber	R	29	27	22	131.3	78	44	23	152	87	81
Deck McGuire	R	25	25	24	132.3	94	58	23	147	88	82
Alex Hinshaw	L	31	29	0	28.0	28	27	4	27	19	18
Kyle Drabek	R	26	20	16	78.3	53	42	14	88	55	51
Ricky Romero	L	29	27	26	146.7	102	87	23	159	98	92
Miguel Batista	R	43	16	6	36.7	22	24	7	43	29	27
Chad Beck	R	29	38	6	65.3	38	33	10	75	45	42
Buddy Carlyle	R	36	31	2	50.3	42	23	11	56	35	33
Bobby Korecky	R	34	33	1	55.0	30	21	11	66	40	37
Claudio Vargas	R	36	17	11	65.0	36	34	13	78	50	47
Dave Bush	R	34	16	11	67.7	36	18	17	85	52	49
Chad Jenkins	R	26	30	19	117.0	58	42	23	141	83	78
Ramon Ortiz	R	41	14	12	69.0	30	30	18	90	60	56
Rob Rasmussen	L	25	26	24	121.3	80	76	24	140	93	87

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
R.A. Dickey	195.7	829	19.5%	6.8%	.276	4.00	4.28	97	104
Brandon Morrow	125.7	539	25.4%	9.1%	.293	3.87	3.79	94	92
Mark Buehrle	168.7	726	15.1%	5.4%	.288	4.32	4.37	105	106
Marcus Stroman	114.3	484	23.4%	5.8%	.293	4.41	4.34	107	105
Sean Nolin	107.7	474	19.6%	8.4%	.302	4.51	4.39	109	107
J.A. Happ	125.0	555	20.2%	10.1%	.291	4.68	4.52	114	110
Brett Cecil	66.0	278	26.3%	8.6%	.292	3.27	3.32	79	81
Casey Janssen	53.3	218	25.2%	6.0%	.280	3.04	3.12	74	76
Aaron Loup	72.7	306	18.9%	5.6%	.292	3.72	3.61	90	88
Drew Hutchison	59.3	262	19.1%	9.2%	.294	4.55	4.61	110	112
Sergio Santos	32.0	133	27.8%	8.3%	.284	3.37	3.02	82	73
Buzz Oliver	44.0	186	21.0%	7.0%	.283	3.68	3.83	89	93
Steve Delabar	62.3	275	28.4%	13.1%	.296	3.90	4.12	95	100
Esmil Rogers	112.0	496	18.1%	8.1%	.302	4.82	4.57	117	111
Neil Wagner	59.0	258	22.1%	9.7%	.293	4.12	4.10	100	100
Luis Perez	24.3	106	20.8%	9.4%	.286	4.07	4.32	99	105
Dustin McGowan	35.7	160	22.5%	12.5%	.299	4.29	4.46	104	108
Jeremy Jeffress	52.7	240	19.2%	12.9%	.297	4.44	4.54	108	110
Marcus Walden	125.7	574	10.1%	8.7%	.296	5.30	5.26	129	128
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	115.0	517	15.5%	8.7%	.297	5.24	5.15	127	125
John Stilson	48.3	214	18.7%	9.4%	.292	4.66	4.83	113	117
Mike Broadway	32.3	145	17.3%	9.7%	.293	5.01	5.12	122	124
Mickey Storey	70.3	308	20.5%	8.1%	.298	4.73	4.61	115	112
Todd Redmond	119.7	532	18.0%	7.7%	.295	5.49	5.46	133	133
Thad Weber	131.3	590	13.2%	7.5%	.295	5.55	5.45	135	132
Deck McGuire	132.3	602	15.6%	9.6%	.295	5.58	5.49	135	133
Alex Hinshaw	28.0	138	20.3%	19.6%	.299	5.79	6.03	141	146
Kyle Drabek	78.3	365	14.5%	11.5%	.293	5.86	5.87	142	142
Ricky Romero	146.7	686	14.9%	12.7%	.293	5.65	5.78	137	140
Miguel Batista	36.7	177	12.4%	13.6%	.295	6.63	6.58	161	160
Chad Beck	65.3	304	12.5%	10.9%	.297	5.79	5.70	141	138
Buddy Carlyle	50.3	230	18.3%	10.0%	.298	5.90	5.90	143	143
Bobby Korecky	55.0	252	11.9%	8.3%	.296	6.05	6.05	147	147
Claudio Vargas	65.0	307	11.7%	11.1%	.297	6.51	6.46	158	157
Dave Bush	67.7	306	11.8%	5.9%	.294	6.52	6.35	158	154
Chad Jenkins	117.0	534	10.9%	7.9%	.292	6.00	5.97	146	145
Ramon Ortiz	69.0	327	9.2%	9.2%	.295	7.30	7.17	177	174
Rob Rasmussen	121.3	580	13.8%	13.1%	.297	6.45	6.50	157	158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
R.A. Dickey	195.7	7.45	2.58	1.24	104	3.1	Tim Wakefield
Brandon Morrow	125.7	9.81	3.51	1.07	107	2.2	Juan Guzman
Mark Buehrle	168.7	5.87	2.08	1.23	96	2.0	Geoff Zahn
Marcus Stroman	114.3	8.90	2.20	1.57	94	1.2	Anthony Reyes
Sean Nolin	107.7	7.77	3.34	1.17	92	1.0	Danny Jackson
J.A. Happ	125.0	8.06	4.03	1.22	89	0.9	Bob McClure
Brett Cecil	66.0	9.95	3.27	0.82	127	0.9	Steve Kline
Casey Janssen	53.3	9.29	2.20	0.84	137	0.9	Mike Timlin
Aaron Loup	72.7	7.18	2.10	0.87	112	0.6	Mark Peterson
Drew Hutchison	59.3	7.59	3.64	1.21	91	0.5	Tim Leary
Sergio Santos	32.0	10.41	3.09	0.84	123	0.4	Russ Springer
Buzz Oliver	44.0	7.98	2.66	1.02	113	0.4	Rick Honeycutt
Steve Delabar	62.3	11.27	5.20	1.16	106	0.4	Mark Clear
Esmil Rogers	112.0	7.23	3.21	1.29	86	0.3	Steve Shields
Neil Wagner	59.0	8.69	3.81	1.07	101	0.2	Jason Boyd
Luis Perez	24.3	8.15	3.70	1.11	102	0.1	Matt Whisenant
Dustin McGowan	35.7	9.08	5.04	1.01	97	0.1	Rich Croushore
Jeremy Jeffress	52.7	7.86	5.29	0.85	93	0.0	Bob Gibson
Marcus Walden	125.7	4.15	3.58	1.15	78	0.0	Jake Dittler
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	115.0	6.26	3.52	1.41	79	-0.1	Chris Bootcheck
John Stilson	48.3	7.45	3.73	1.30	89	-0.1	Steve LaRose
Mike Broadway	32.3	6.97	3.90	1.39	83	-0.2	Frank Perez
Mickey Storey	70.3	8.07	3.20	1.41	88	-0.3	Jim Dougherty
Todd Redmond	119.7	7.22	3.08	1.88	76	-0.3	Jason Middlebrook
Thad Weber	131.3	5.35	3.02	1.58	75	-0.5	Vicente Bonilla
Deck McGuire	132.3	6.39	3.95	1.56	74	-0.5	Darren Hodges
Alex Hinshaw	28.0	9.00	8.68	1.29	72	-0.5	Ricardo Jordan
Kyle Drabek	78.3	6.09	4.83	1.61	71	-0.6	Daron Kirkreit
Ricky Romero	146.7	6.26	5.34	1.41	73	-0.6	Don Collins
Miguel Batista	36.7	5.40	5.89	1.72	63	-0.7	Michael Riley
Chad Beck	65.3	5.24	4.55	1.38	72	-0.7	Marty McLeary
Buddy Carlyle	50.3	7.51	4.12	1.97	70	-0.8	Jim Brower
Bobby Korecky	55.0	4.91	3.44	1.80	69	-1.0	Joe Haynes
Claudio Vargas	65.0	4.98	4.71	1.80	64	-1.0	Lou Kretlow
Dave Bush	67.7	4.79	2.39	2.26	64	-1.0	Jeff Harris
Chad Jenkins	117.0	4.46	3.23	1.77	69	-1.1	Mike Redding
Ramon Ortiz	69.0	3.91	3.91	2.35	57	-1.7	Ed Riley
Rob Rasmussen	121.3	5.94	5.64	1.78	64	-1.7	Tom Singer

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 4.04 ERA and the NL having a 3.81 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.