2015 Positional Ball-in-Play Retrospective – LF

As the calendar mercifully flips to March, it won’t be long until meaningful major league baseball games will be played in a ballpark near you. Meanwhile, let’s continue our series of position-by-position looks at the ball-in-play (BIP) profiles of 2015 regulars and semi-regulars. We’ve already looked at all the various infield positions, so today we’ll begin our outfield review in left field.

First, let’s review some ground rules. To come up with an overall player population roughly equal to one player per team per position, the minimum number of batted balls with Statcast readings was set at 164. Players were listed at the position at which they played the most games. There is more than one player per team at some positions and less at others, like catcher and DH. Players are listed in descending OPS+ order. Let’s begin with the AL left fielders.

Most of the column headers are self explanatory, including average BIP speed (overall and by BIP type), BIP type frequency, K and BB rates, and BIP by field sector (pull, central, opposite). Each player’s OPS and Unadjusted Contact Score (CON) is also listed. For those of you who have not read my articles on the topic, Contact Score is derived by removing Ks and BBs from hitters’ batting lines, assigning run values to all other events, and comparing them to a league average of 100.

Cells are also color coded. If a hitter’s value is two standard deviations or more higher than average (the average of all players in the league, not just at the player’s position), the field is shaded red. If it’s one to two STD higher than average, it’s shaded orange. If it’s one-half to one STD higher than average, it’s shaded dark yellow. If it’s one-half to one STD less than average, it’s shaded blue. If it’s over one STD less than average, it’s shaded black. Ran out of colors at that point. On the rare occasions that a value is over two STD lower than average, we’ll mention it if necessary in the text. You’d actually expect a bit more orange at a bat-oriented position such as left field; not so in the AL last season.

Yoenis Cespedes‘ full-season numbers, including his time with the Mets, are reflected in the table above. He is the clear standout of the group, hitting the ball harder than everyone with a respectable K rate for a power bat, hard enough to make his low walk and slightly excessive pull tendency tolerable. He did make progress in a key area, with his pop-up rate dropping into the average range after three seasons in the 95th, 95th and 97th percentiles, respectively. He’ll need to make some adjustments to excel in his mid- to upper-30s, but he’ll be plenty good enough with the bat in the near term.

And now for someone completely, different… Michael Brantley. While Cespedes crushes the baseball — albeit with some technical deficiencies — Brantley is an average-authority ball-striker who does nothing negative at a significant clip. Minuscule K and pop-up rates plus a high liner rate (every year phenomena for Brantley) equals a .300+ average. He likely reached his apex in 2014, but his floor is immensely high. He’ll lose part of 2016 to injury; it will be interesting to see if his overarching strengths are in place at the same level of magnitude after his return.

Alex Gordon possesses the profile of a slightly past his prime, yet still productive hitter. His walk rate climbed, as did his fly-ball rate, about as high as it can relative to his grounder rate before you start to get a bit concerned. He’s begun to selectively pull pitches he can handle in the air. His liner rate spiked after being dramatically low (third percentile) in 2014. It won’t get that low again, but we can certainly expect some negative regression in that category in 2016. He’s another high floor guy whose offensive ceiling isn’t all that much higher than his current performance level.

Seth Smith is really boring, and that’s just fine. He gets most of his playing time with the platoon advantage, unlike the players ranked ahead of him; he’s not in their league. Still, his walk rate is high, he never pops up, and he hits a healthy but not excessive number of fly balls, giving him reasonable power numbers despite average-range BIP authority. He uses the field, and has no glaring red flags. High floor, modest ceiling.

Colby Rasmus is the only player in the above table with categories in which he is either two standard deviations above or below the league positional average. His fly ball, strikeout and pull rates are all over two STD over, and none of those is a good thing. His fly ball/grounder disparity is obscene; there is nowhere for his fly-ball rate to go but down, dragging his power production alongside it. Almost all players who hit more flies (excluding pop ups) than grounders suffer production drops the next season. Want more risk factors? The disparity between his average fly and grounder authority is notable. Also: the grounders he hits are largely weak, roll-over types into overshifted infield defenses. Make a mistake, Rasmus might pull it out the yard; make your pitches, he’s done.

Brett Gardner owes a great deal of his offensive production to Yankee Stadium. Without it, he’d be a steady-as-he-goes type without a glaring weakness; he uses the field, has a low pop-up rate, and takes plenty of walks. There is nothing in his profile that would ever suggest he’d hit 16 or 17 homers per season, however, which he has done the last two years. Thirty-six of his 56 career homers have been at home, generally in close proximity to the right-field line. I’d suspect that his days as an 100-plus OPS+ guy are numbered, but his speed and defense will allow him to remain at least a modest asset with a bat in the 90-95 range.

Sell your short-term Eddie Rosario stock, people. His 129 Contact Score is a mirage, all based on good fortune. Check out the hideous K-BB differential. Or the high pop-up rate. Or the high fly-ball rate that is likely to decline in 2016. Or the massive differential between his fly ball and grounder authority. Adjustments need to be made for him to effective in the long haul. He’s poised for a Danny Santana-like collapse (I did call that one) this time around.

I wouldn’t be surprised by comeback seasons (at least with the bat) from both Melky Cabrera and Hanley Ramirez. Lots of bad luck is baked into both of their lines. Despite typically low K and pop-up rates and a typically high liner rate, Melky crash-landed in 2015. He’s still the same guy who over-performed as a Giant in 2012 and Blue Jay in 2014, and is still very capable of .340 OBP-.420 SLG seasons in the near term. The biggest glitch in Ramirez’ profile is his low walk rate, a precipitous drop from previous norms. It was a new league and a new position for Hanley in 2015; I’d at least expect greater comfort from him at the plate this time around. He hits the ball almost as hard as Cespedes when he does get it in the air.

AL left fielders had a conspicuously low 104 OPS+ and 106 Contact Score as a group, with ordinary BIP authority and a notable pull tendency holding them back. Now, for their NL counterparts.

David Peralta is quite a story. An independent leaguer, and a pitcher, just a few years ago, this guy was the most productive left fielder in the NL last season. And it was no fluke. He crushes the ball at a near Cespedes-esque level, rarely pops up, and uses the entire field. His fly-ball rate (not to mention that pull rate) has plenty of room to grow, inviting massive future power development. This guy has a real chance to be an all-around star.

Khris Davis has left the NL, bringing his baseball-mashing skills to Oakland in 2016. No MLB left fielder hit the ball harder in the air than Davis last season. Lots of pros and cons in his profile. His liner rate should regress upward moving forward, a very good thing. That huge K rate leaves him little margin for error with regard to BIP authority, and his pull tendency is somewhat excessive and invites infield overshifts. There is a massive disparity between his authority on the air and on the ground; those roll-over grounders, along with the Ks, mean lots of batting average risk. High risk, high reward, but a strong acquisition on balance for the A’s, who can spell him in the DH spot to minimize his negative defensive impact.

Justin Upton also changes leagues in 2016, moving to Detroit. It’s hard to imagine that, with all of his experience, Upton was only 27 in 2015. He still teases with superstar potential, but at this stage has settled in as “merely” a well above-average offensive corner OF. His 2015 performance was sapped by his low liner rate, way down in the 10th percentile after three straight years above average; it will positively regress this time around. On the other hand, he had more fly balls than grounders, often a harbinger of next-year decline, particularly in the power categories. He could stand to selectively pull in the air for distance a bit more often. I wouldn’t be shocked if Upton his for a higher average with more doubles but fewer homers in 2016.

I love to talk about Christian Yelich. What a unique profile. This guy hit zero pop ups in 2015, with the lowest fly-ball rate in the majors, over two STD above league average. He very rarely pulls the baseball. Oh, does he hammer it, however, in the air and on the ground. Just a subtle tweak in his swing plane that would raise his fly-ball rate without generating too many pop ups would make Yelich a superstar. At 23, he was the youngest starting left fielder in either league last year; before too long, he could well be the best.

Of course, many including myself have been expecting Starling Marte to take the remaining steps to stardom for quite a while now. Why hasn’t it happened? He’s always hit a ton of grounders, which isn’t in itself that big a deal. Heck, just take a look at the previous blurb on Yelich. Marte, however, hits the ball much more weakly on the ground than he does in the air, often to the pull side, inviting infield overshifts. His inadequate walk rate has only gotten worse, to boot. If anything, I’d expect Marte’s liner rate to negatively regress in 2016, hampering his batting average. It might be getting to the point where we forget about Marte the potential superstar, and instead simply enjoy Marte the solid all-around player whose bat always keeps you wanting more.

Nori Aoki and Ben Revere’s lines are just fun to look at. Both make consistent, but weak contact, paddling the ball on the ground and rarely pulling it. Revere hits the ball more weakly — over two full STD weaker than average — but is the better offensive player because of a superior K/BB profile. Look for decline from Revere this season, as his lofty 2015 liner rate (in the 93rd percentile) is likely to negatively regress.

Jayson Werth is clearly on the downside, but wasn’t as bad as his traditional numbers suggested last season. Most of his key indicators trended down in 2015, his overall BIP authority, his K and BB rates among them. It shouldn’t have added up to an 84 OPS+ and 88 Contact Score, however. Expect him to “harvest” a bit more in 2016, selectively pulling and taking advantage of his remaining power. Though his fly balls (excluding his grounders) outnumbered his grounders, and his fly-ball authority way exceeded that of his grounders — two orange, if not red flags — I wouldn’t be surprised to see him unfurl an “Ibanez in His Twilight” homer-centric season in 2016.

NL left fielders were more productive than their AL peers in 2015, with a cumulative 108 OPS+ and 117 Contact Score. They struck out more than the AL group, hitting fewer fly balls but using the entire field more liberally.