2015 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Offensively, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has evolved into a broadly skilled weapon, reproducing not only the above-average home-run and walk rates that he posted in the minors, but also recording above-average BABIP and base-running figures. His projection for 2015 suggests he’ll continue doing all these sorts of things.

Nor is Goldschmidt alone in his hitting abilities. David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas, and Mark Trumbo are all starters forecast to produce above-average offensive lines. For all them, with the exception of Pollock, the question is less of offensive — and more of defensive — ability. There’s a real possibility, supported by ZiPS, that each is occupying a place on the defensive spectrum probably more demanding than the actual skills warrant.

Pitchers
Only two of Arizona’s top-five pitchers by projected WAR — Josh Collmenter and Rubby de la Rosa — actually appear within the depth-chart image below. The best of that group, Patrick Corbin (2.4 WAR), is rehabbing from a Tommy John procedure until midseason, probably. Right-hander Chase Anderson, who actually recorded about a win in 21 starts with the club in 2014, appears to have only an outside chance at earning a rotation spot. Aaron Blair, meanwhile — barring unusual circumstances — will almost certainly begin the season in the high minors.

If one were looking to strike an optimistic note with regard to the club’s starters and their underwhelming forecasts, one could make the argument that, while the projections themselves are low, that those figures represent only the most likely outcome for each of the club’s respective pitchers and that a number of the pitchers themselves offer a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical. de la Rosa and Allen Webster, for example, have both exhibited elite velocity and above-average strikeout rates in the minors and are perhaps destined for greater things than their brief/recent major-league resumes suggests.

Bench/Prospects
In addition to Blair, the D-backs employ two of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley. Neither, according to ZiPS, is likely to offer even average run prevention at the moment, but might be relied upon to produce at a rate better than replacement level. Among field players, Ender Inciarte actually receives one of the club’s top projections (576 PA, 2.3 WAR). Despite a lack of power, his contact ability and defensive acumen might ultimately allow him to earn a more significant role on the team.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Paul Goldschmidt	R	27	1B	595	89	144	36	2	28	95	14	4
A.J. Pollock	R	27	CF	399	57	104	25	7	9	34	15	3
Chris Owings	R	23	SS	518	61	135	25	7	9	49	16	3
Ender Inciarte	L	24	CF	576	66	147	23	6	5	42	31	7
Yasmany Tomas	B	24	3B	520	61	132	26	4	21	60	4	4
Jacob Lamb	L	24	3B	464	54	103	26	3	13	54	3	1
Brandon Drury	R	22	3B	625	73	143	37	3	15	73	3	3
Nick Ahmed	R	25	SS	573	60	129	25	4	6	46	18	8
Aaron Hill	R	33	2B	518	57	125	26	3	12	59	6	5
Peter O’Brien	R	24	C	469	68	106	26	2	26	78	0	0
Mark Trumbo	R	29	LF	528	66	127	25	2	28	94	4	3
David Peralta	L	27	LF	458	55	123	24	7	11	55	5	2
Cliff Pennington	B	31	SS	336	35	75	13	2	4	22	7	3
Eric Chavez	L	37	3B	139	14	32	6	1	5	19	2	0
Oscar Hernandez	R	21	C	342	36	75	14	2	8	39	4	6
Jordan Pacheco	R	29	C	357	29	86	19	2	2	34	3	1
Tyler Bortnick	R	27	2B	311	34	64	12	4	2	24	12	2
Andy Marte	R	31	3B	377	43	88	17	2	9	43	1	0
Ronny Cedeno	R	32	2B	309	31	71	14	3	3	29	3	3
Cody Ross	R	34	LF	350	36	81	16	0	9	38	2	1
Tuffy Gosewisch	R	31	C	261	19	55	14	1	4	20	1	1
Nick Evans	R	29	1B	329	37	76	16	2	10	40	1	1
Jordan Parraz	R	30	RF	229	25	47	9	1	6	21	3	2
Nick Buss	L	28	RF	588	66	136	23	7	9	56	13	6
Garrett Weber	R	26	2B	445	44	104	19	3	7	43	2	1
Nolan Reimold	R	31	LF	176	18	37	7	0	6	20	2	1
Jamie Romak	R	29	3B	496	50	101	26	3	14	55	4	1
Blake Lalli	L	32	C	342	33	75	15	1	5	30	0	1
Matt Pagnozzi	R	32	C	285	27	54	8	0	6	24	0	0
Zach Borenstein	L	24	LF	473	53	107	23	4	14	53	6	6
Danny Dorn	L	30	RF	427	45	91	19	3	14	50	3	2
Mitchell Haniger	R	24	RF	345	40	75	16	2	8	35	3	1
Dustin Martin	L	31	RF	334	36	72	15	2	7	34	6	4
Walter Ibarra	B	27	2B	325	30	74	13	1	4	25	4	3
Danny Worth	R	29	2B	342	28	62	16	2	3	23	7	3
Aaron Cunningham	R	29	LF	342	34	70	19	3	4	31	3	2
Socrates Brito	L	22	RF	585	60	136	25	5	6	49	26	11
Mike Jacobs	L	34	1B	481	49	97	20	0	13	51	0	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt	595	13.1%	23.5%	.244	.335	.283	.378	.527	.384
A.J. Pollock	399	6.8%	17.3%	.179	.328	.283	.335	.462	.353
Chris Owings	518	4.1%	18.7%	.134	.327	.276	.309	.410	.319
Ender Inciarte	576	5.4%	13.4%	.093	.312	.275	.316	.368	.306
Yasmany Tomas	520	4.4%	18.3%	.197	.293	.267	.302	.464	.334
Jacob Lamb	464	7.1%	27.8%	.168	.316	.244	.302	.412	.314
Brandon Drury	625	5.3%	19.7%	.151	.286	.246	.291	.397	.302
Nick Ahmed	573	5.4%	17.5%	.096	.288	.243	.289	.339	.278
Aaron Hill	518	6.4%	14.1%	.143	.286	.263	.315	.406	.315
Peter O’Brien	469	4.7%	31.6%	.246	.297	.241	.281	.487	.332
Mark Trumbo	528	7.0%	23.1%	.233	.292	.262	.314	.495	.346
David Peralta	458	4.1%	15.9%	.164	.318	.283	.315	.447	.332
Cliff Pennington	336	8.3%	18.8%	.096	.301	.248	.315	.344	.294
Eric Chavez	139	8.6%	20.1%	.186	.287	.258	.317	.444	.330
Oscar Hernandez	342	4.1%	21.1%	.130	.273	.233	.267	.363	.271
Jordan Pacheco	357	4.8%	13.2%	.087	.294	.259	.299	.346	.286
Tyler Bortnick	311	8.4%	20.3%	.094	.292	.232	.308	.326	.291
Andy Marte	377	5.6%	16.7%	.136	.279	.250	.292	.386	.297
Ronny Cedeno	309	5.5%	19.4%	.102	.305	.249	.295	.351	.281
Cody Ross	350	7.4%	20.0%	.135	.298	.255	.314	.390	.312
Tuffy Gosewisch	261	3.4%	19.2%	.113	.262	.223	.254	.336	.259
Nick Evans	329	7.3%	22.8%	.167	.301	.252	.307	.419	.317
Jordan Parraz	229	6.1%	24.0%	.137	.273	.223	.284	.360	.288
Nick Buss	588	5.3%	16.5%	.119	.289	.251	.296	.370	.291
Garrett Weber	445	3.8%	22.5%	.110	.309	.248	.284	.358	.284
Nolan Reimold	176	8.0%	26.1%	.158	.284	.234	.295	.392	.301
Jamie Romak	496	6.0%	25.6%	.162	.272	.221	.273	.383	.290
Blake Lalli	342	5.0%	22.2%	.099	.289	.234	.273	.333	.266
Matt Pagnozzi	285	5.6%	26.3%	.100	.267	.208	.266	.308	.258
Zach Borenstein	473	6.1%	24.5%	.168	.300	.246	.294	.414	.307
Danny Dorn	427	6.8%	24.8%	.172	.281	.234	.289	.406	.303
Mitchell Haniger	345	6.4%	23.2%	.140	.291	.238	.294	.378	.296
Dustin Martin	334	7.5%	26.6%	.130	.307	.235	.293	.365	.293
Walter Ibarra	325	2.8%	24.0%	.087	.306	.239	.264	.326	.259
Danny Worth	342	7.6%	28.7%	.094	.281	.200	.265	.294	.253
Aaron Cunningham	342	7.0%	19.3%	.119	.272	.225	.287	.344	.280
Socrates Brito	585	4.1%	24.6%	.095	.317	.244	.275	.339	.273
Mike Jacobs	481	6.9%	28.1%	.134	.281	.219	.272	.353	.275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt	595	7.6	144	2	4.2	Derrek Lee
A.J. Pollock	399	6.1	115	6	3.2	Mitch Webster
Chris Owings	518	5.0	95	2	2.4	Sea Bass Gonzalez
Ender Inciarte	576	4.7	87	7	2.3	Endy Chavez
Yasmany Tomas	520	5.1	106	-4	1.9	Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jacob Lamb	464	4.5	93	1	1.4	Boi Rodriguez
Brandon Drury	625	4.1	86	2	1.4	Mike Bell
Nick Ahmed	573	3.5	71	6	1.2	Alex Prieto
Aaron Hill	518	4.6	95	-3	1.2	Rich Aurilia
Peter O’Brien	469	4.9	105	-16	1.2	Mike Piazza
Mark Trumbo	528	5.7	117	-9	1.1	Israel Alcantara
David Peralta	458	5.3	106	-2	1.1	Dave Martinez
Cliff Pennington	336	3.9	81	1	1.0	Kevin Stocker
Eric Chavez	139	5.3	105	-1	0.5	Richie Hebner
Oscar Hernandez	342	3.2	70	0	0.4	Jeff Goldbach
Jordan Pacheco	357	3.8	76	-5	0.3	Angelo Encarnacion
Tyler Bortnick	311	3.8	74	-1	0.3	Matt Matulia
Andy Marte	377	4.1	84	-3	0.3	Jason Wood
Ronny Cedeno	309	3.6	76	1	0.3	Joe DeMaestri
Cody Ross	350	4.4	91	-1	0.2	Shane Spencer
Tuffy Gosewisch	261	2.9	60	1	0.2	Charlie Greene
Nick Evans	329	4.6	96	0	0.1	Mendy Lopez
Jordan Parraz	229	3.5	75	4	0.1	Lou List
Nick Buss	588	4.0	81	3	0.0	Jim Wawruck
Garrett Weber	445	3.7	74	-2	0.0	Mendy Lopez
Nolan Reimold	176	4.1	86	0	0.0	Darrell Whitmore
Jamie Romak	496	3.7	77	-4	0.0	Bryn Kosco
Blake Lalli	342	3.1	65	-3	-0.1	Jamie Quirk
Matt Pagnozzi	285	2.8	56	-1	-0.1	Chad Moeller
Zach Borenstein	473	4.2	91	-4	-0.2	David Kelton
Danny Dorn	427	4.1	88	-3	-0.2	Doug DeVore
Mitchell Haniger	345	4.0	82	-1	-0.2	Julio Vinas
Dustin Martin	334	3.7	79	-1	-0.3	Dann Howitt
Walter Ibarra	325	3.0	60	0	-0.5	Adolfo Gonzalez
Danny Worth	342	2.7	53	2	-0.5	Frank Kremblas
Aaron Cunningham	342	3.4	72	-1	-0.6	Greg Creek
Socrates Brito	585	3.4	67	0	-1.3	Elijah Bonaparte
Mike Jacobs	481	3.3	69	0	-1.5	Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Patrick Corbin	L	25	22	21	145.3	108	38	14	141	64	60
Josh Collmenter	R	29	27	25	150.7	112	40	17	148	70	65
Chase Anderson	R	27	24	24	135.0	120	42	17	134	65	61
A.A. Ron Blair	R	23	26	26	145.3	136	54	18	142	73	68
Rubby de la Rosa	R	26	29	29	159.7	118	56	18	170	83	78
Bronson Arroyo	R	38	17	17	106.3	62	21	14	113	54	50
Trevor Cahill	R	27	33	26	154.3	130	68	16	154	81	76
Allen Webster	R	25	29	27	144.7	99	57	15	150	77	72
Jeremy Hellickson	R	28	25	25	130.7	98	37	18	138	70	65
Archie Bradley	R	22	21	21	103.0	80	55	9	103	55	51
Andrew Chafin	L	25	27	25	140.3	103	64	15	146	77	72
Vidal Nuno	L	27	24	20	113.3	87	32	17	116	61	57
David Hernandez	R	30	54	0	52.3	61	20	6	43	20	19
Evan Marshall	R	25	67	0	66.7	66	26	5	61	28	26
Brad Ziegler	R	35	67	0	61.7	45	21	5	58	26	24
Addison Reed	R	26	65	0	63.7	68	17	7	57	27	25
Kevin Munson	R	26	57	0	61.0	70	23	7	52	26	24
Randall Delgado	R	25	37	17	116.0	103	48	16	116	63	59
Oliver Perez	L	33	58	0	54.0	62	24	6	48	24	22
Matt Reynolds	L	30	37	0	33.0	28	8	3	32	14	13
Jimmie Sherfy	R	23	39	0	39.0	44	16	5	34	17	16
Braden Shipley	R	23	23	23	118.3	98	47	17	123	68	64
Enrique Burgos	R	24	55	0	50.7	64	30	5	42	24	22
Daniel Hudson	R	28	4	4	18.3	14	5	2	19	10	9
J.J. Putz	R	38	25	0	21.0	22	10	2	19	10	9
Derek Eitel	R	27	34	0	51.3	56	24	7	46	25	23
Lucas Harrell	R	30	27	22	133.3	85	66	15	139	78	73
Bo Schultz	R	29	35	15	106.7	63	38	12	118	61	57
Jake Barrett	R	23	57	0	54.7	47	22	6	53	27	25
AJ Schugel	R	26	23	23	117.3	78	54	13	127	70	65
Jess Todd	R	29	47	0	64.7	54	27	6	63	32	30
Kaleb Fleck	R	26	50	0	53.7	51	27	6	51	27	25
Robbie Ray	L	23	27	25	125.7	97	54	18	134	75	70
Will Locante	L	25	39	0	43.3	40	27	4	40	22	21
Patrick Schuster	L	24	59	0	43.0	38	21	5	41	22	21
Jose Jose	L	24	34	0	35.3	34	18	4	34	19	18
Matt Stites	R	25	58	0	54.7	46	18	8	55	29	27
Kameron Loe	R	33	39	3	59.7	36	19	8	67	35	33
Tim Crabbe	R	27	28	19	112.7	73	54	16	126	72	67
Caleb Clay	R	27	26	18	110.7	62	34	19	128	72	67
Graham Godfrey	R	30	18	10	67.3	34	28	12	80	47	44
Bradin Hagens	R	26	29	20	119.3	62	67	14	135	78	73
J.C. Ramirez	R	26	44	0	56.3	37	30	8	62	36	34
Blake Beavan	R	26	25	14	99.7	47	25	19	120	68	64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Patrick Corbin	145.3	615	17.6%	6.2%	.283	3.72	3.87	95	99
Josh Collmenter	150.7	640	17.5%	6.2%	.279	3.88	3.93	99	101
Chase Anderson	135.0	581	20.7%	7.2%	.295	4.07	4.10	104	105
A.A. Ron Blair	145.3	632	21.5%	8.5%	.298	4.21	4.24	108	109
Rubby de la Rosa	159.7	705	16.7%	7.9%	.299	4.40	4.35	113	112
Bronson Arroyo	106.3	453	13.7%	4.6%	.281	4.23	4.44	108	114
Trevor Cahill	154.3	685	19.0%	9.9%	.297	4.43	4.32	114	111
Allen Webster	144.7	641	15.4%	8.9%	.294	4.48	4.61	115	118
Jeremy Hellickson	130.7	567	17.3%	6.5%	.292	4.48	4.40	115	113
Archie Bradley	103.0	467	17.1%	11.8%	.297	4.46	4.55	114	117
Andrew Chafin	140.3	631	16.3%	10.1%	.298	4.62	4.66	118	119
Vidal Nuno	113.3	488	17.8%	6.6%	.285	4.53	4.61	116	118
David Hernandez	52.3	220	27.7%	9.1%	.285	3.27	3.58	84	92
Evan Marshall	66.7	287	23.0%	9.1%	.301	3.51	3.43	90	88
Brad Ziegler	61.7	264	17.0%	8.0%	.277	3.50	3.69	90	95
Addison Reed	63.7	265	25.7%	6.4%	.292	3.53	3.31	91	85
Kevin Munson	61.0	258	27.1%	8.9%	.290	3.54	3.50	91	90
Randall Delgado	116.0	512	20.1%	9.4%	.293	4.58	4.53	117	116
Oliver Perez	54.0	234	26.5%	10.3%	.304	3.67	3.81	94	98
Matt Reynolds	33.0	139	20.1%	5.8%	.290	3.55	3.25	91	83
Jimmie Sherfy	39.0	167	26.3%	9.6%	.290	3.69	4.01	95	103
Braden Shipley	118.3	525	18.7%	9.0%	.298	4.87	4.77	125	122
Enrique Burgos	50.7	224	28.6%	13.4%	.303	3.91	3.93	100	101
Daniel Hudson	18.3	79	17.7%	6.3%	.294	4.42	3.93	113	101
J.J. Putz	21.0	92	23.9%	10.9%	.298	3.86	3.79	99	97
Derek Eitel	51.3	224	25.0%	10.7%	.291	4.03	4.27	103	109
Lucas Harrell	133.3	605	14.1%	10.9%	.285	4.93	4.91	126	126
Bo Schultz	106.7	476	13.2%	8.0%	.297	4.81	4.65	123	119
Jake Barrett	54.7	239	19.7%	9.2%	.292	4.12	4.13	106	106
AJ Schugel	117.3	533	14.6%	10.1%	.299	4.99	4.86	128	125
Jess Todd	64.7	284	19.0%	9.5%	.294	4.18	4.01	107	103
Kaleb Fleck	53.7	239	21.3%	11.3%	.296	4.19	4.33	107	111
Robbie Ray	125.7	565	17.2%	9.6%	.297	5.01	4.97	128	127
Will Locante	43.3	197	20.3%	13.7%	.293	4.36	4.65	112	119
Patrick Schuster	43.0	191	19.9%	11.0%	.288	4.40	4.50	113	115
Jose Jose	35.3	158	21.5%	11.4%	.300	4.58	4.38	117	112
Matt Stites	54.7	237	19.4%	7.6%	.290	4.45	4.53	114	116
Kameron Loe	59.7	265	13.6%	7.2%	.296	4.98	4.76	128	122
Tim Crabbe	112.7	518	14.1%	10.4%	.300	5.35	5.39	137	138
Caleb Clay	110.7	494	12.5%	6.9%	.292	5.45	5.39	140	138
Graham Godfrey	67.3	310	11.0%	9.0%	.294	5.88	6.00	151	154
Bradin Hagens	119.3	560	11.1%	12.0%	.296	5.51	5.59	141	143
J.C. Ramirez	56.3	261	14.2%	11.5%	.295	5.43	5.46	139	140
Blake Beavan	99.7	444	10.6%	5.6%	.291	5.78	5.68	148	146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Patrick Corbin	145.3	6.69	2.35	0.87	105	2.4	Mark Thurmond
Josh Collmenter	150.7	6.69	2.39	1.02	100	2.1	Jae-Weong Seo
Chase Anderson	135.0	8.00	2.80	1.13	96	1.6	Ryan Nye
A.A. Ron Blair	145.3	8.42	3.34	1.11	93	1.4	Pete Harnisch
Rubby de la Rosa	159.7	6.65	3.16	1.01	89	1.2	Aaron France
Bronson Arroyo	106.3	5.25	1.78	1.19	92	1.0	Dennis Springer
Trevor Cahill	154.3	7.58	3.97	0.93	88	1.0	Ryan Bowen
Allen Webster	144.7	6.16	3.55	0.93	87	0.9	Darin Blood
Jeremy Hellickson	130.7	6.75	2.55	1.24	87	0.8	Larry Luebbers
Archie Bradley	103.0	6.99	4.81	0.79	87	0.7	Dick Ruthven
Andrew Chafin	140.3	6.61	4.11	0.96	84	0.6	Brian O’Connor
Vidal Nuno	113.3	6.91	2.54	1.35	86	0.6	Blaise Ilsley
David Hernandez	52.3	10.50	3.44	1.03	119	0.6	Chris Schroder
Evan Marshall	66.7	8.91	3.51	0.67	111	0.5	Lee Smith
Brad Ziegler	61.7	6.56	3.06	0.73	111	0.5	Moe Drabowsky
Addison Reed	63.7	9.61	2.40	0.99	110	0.5	Luis DeLeon
Kevin Munson	61.0	10.33	3.39	1.03	110	0.5	Fernando Cabrera
Randall Delgado	116.0	7.99	3.72	1.24	85	0.4	Brian Reith
Oliver Perez	54.0	10.33	4.00	1.00	106	0.3	Rod Scurry
Matt Reynolds	33.0	7.64	2.18	0.82	110	0.3	Mark Holzemer
Jimmie Sherfy	39.0	10.15	3.69	1.15	106	0.2	Brian Bruney
Braden Shipley	118.3	7.46	3.58	1.29	80	0.2	Jesse Floyd
Enrique Burgos	50.7	11.36	5.33	0.89	100	0.2	Brian Bruney
Daniel Hudson	18.3	6.89	2.46	0.98	88	0.1	Kyle Snyder
J.J. Putz	21.0	9.43	4.29	0.86	101	0.1	Mike Fetters
Derek Eitel	51.3	9.82	4.21	1.23	97	0.1	Steve Sparks
Lucas Harrell	133.3	5.74	4.46	1.01	79	0.0	Tony Cloninger
Bo Schultz	106.7	5.31	3.21	1.01	81	0.0	Elliot Brown
Jake Barrett	54.7	7.73	3.62	0.99	95	0.0	Blaine Neal
AJ Schugel	117.3	5.98	4.14	1.00	78	0.0	Brett Laxton
Jess Todd	64.7	7.51	3.76	0.83	93	0.0	Ryan Henderson
Kaleb Fleck	53.7	8.55	4.53	1.01	93	0.0	Bob Gibson
Robbie Ray	125.7	6.95	3.87	1.29	78	-0.1	Derek Root
Will Locante	43.3	8.31	5.61	0.83	89	-0.1	Scott Wiggins
Patrick Schuster	43.0	7.95	4.40	1.05	89	-0.1	Buzz Oliver
Jose Jose	35.3	8.67	4.59	1.02	85	-0.2	Tim Drummond
Matt Stites	54.7	7.57	2.96	1.32	88	-0.2	Todd Erdos
Kameron Loe	59.7	5.43	2.86	1.21	78	-0.4	Brandon Puffer
Tim Crabbe	112.7	5.83	4.31	1.28	73	-0.6	Jose Segura
Caleb Clay	110.7	5.04	2.76	1.54	72	-0.8	Ron Jensen
Graham Godfrey	67.3	4.55	3.74	1.60	66	-0.9	Jim Owens
Bradin Hagens	119.3	4.68	5.05	1.06	71	-0.9	Charlie Zink
J.C. Ramirez	56.3	5.91	4.80	1.28	72	-0.9	Matt Smith
Blake Beavan	99.7	4.24	2.26	1.72	67	-1.2	Justin Pope

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.