2015 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Arizona Diamondbacks. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Offensively, first baseman Paul Goldschmidt has evolved into a broadly skilled weapon, reproducing not only the above-average home-run and walk rates that he posted in the minors, but also recording above-average BABIP and base-running figures. His projection for 2015 suggests he’ll continue doing all these sorts of things.

Nor is Goldschmidt alone in his hitting abilities. David Peralta, A.J. Pollock, Yasmany Tomas, and Mark Trumbo are all starters forecast to produce above-average offensive lines. For all them, with the exception of Pollock, the question is less of offensive — and more of defensive — ability. There’s a real possibility, supported by ZiPS, that each is occupying a place on the defensive spectrum probably more demanding than the actual skills warrant.

Pitchers
Only two of Arizona’s top-five pitchers by projected WAR — Josh Collmenter and Rubby de la Rosa — actually appear within the depth-chart image below. The best of that group, Patrick Corbin (2.4 WAR), is rehabbing from a Tommy John procedure until midseason, probably. Right-hander Chase Anderson, who actually recorded about a win in 21 starts with the club in 2014, appears to have only an outside chance at earning a rotation spot. Aaron Blair, meanwhile — barring unusual circumstances — will almost certainly begin the season in the high minors.

If one were looking to strike an optimistic note with regard to the club’s starters and their underwhelming forecasts, one could make the argument that, while the projections themselves are low, that those figures represent only the most likely outcome for each of the club’s respective pitchers and that a number of the pitchers themselves offer a wider range of possible outcomes than is typical. de la Rosa and Allen Webster, for example, have both exhibited elite velocity and above-average strikeout rates in the minors and are perhaps destined for greater things than their brief/recent major-league resumes suggests.

Bench/Prospects
In addition to Blair, the D-backs employ two of baseball’s top pitching prospects, Archie Bradley and Braden Shipley. Neither, according to ZiPS, is likely to offer even average run prevention at the moment, but might be relied upon to produce at a rate better than replacement level. Among field players, Ender Inciarte actually receives one of the club’s top projections (576 PA, 2.3 WAR). Despite a lack of power, his contact ability and defensive acumen might ultimately allow him to earn a more significant role on the team.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the D-backs, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Dbacks Depth Chart

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Paul Goldschmidt R 27 1B 595 89 144 36 2 28 95 14 4
A.J. Pollock R 27 CF 399 57 104 25 7 9 34 15 3
Chris Owings R 23 SS 518 61 135 25 7 9 49 16 3
Ender Inciarte L 24 CF 576 66 147 23 6 5 42 31 7
Yasmany Tomas B 24 3B 520 61 132 26 4 21 60 4 4
Jacob Lamb L 24 3B 464 54 103 26 3 13 54 3 1
Brandon Drury R 22 3B 625 73 143 37 3 15 73 3 3
Nick Ahmed R 25 SS 573 60 129 25 4 6 46 18 8
Aaron Hill R 33 2B 518 57 125 26 3 12 59 6 5
Peter O’Brien R 24 C 469 68 106 26 2 26 78 0 0
Mark Trumbo R 29 LF 528 66 127 25 2 28 94 4 3
David Peralta L 27 LF 458 55 123 24 7 11 55 5 2
Cliff Pennington B 31 SS 336 35 75 13 2 4 22 7 3
Eric Chavez L 37 3B 139 14 32 6 1 5 19 2 0
Oscar Hernandez R 21 C 342 36 75 14 2 8 39 4 6
Jordan Pacheco R 29 C 357 29 86 19 2 2 34 3 1
Tyler Bortnick R 27 2B 311 34 64 12 4 2 24 12 2
Andy Marte R 31 3B 377 43 88 17 2 9 43 1 0
Ronny Cedeno R 32 2B 309 31 71 14 3 3 29 3 3
Cody Ross R 34 LF 350 36 81 16 0 9 38 2 1
Tuffy Gosewisch R 31 C 261 19 55 14 1 4 20 1 1
Nick Evans R 29 1B 329 37 76 16 2 10 40 1 1
Jordan Parraz R 30 RF 229 25 47 9 1 6 21 3 2
Nick Buss L 28 RF 588 66 136 23 7 9 56 13 6
Garrett Weber R 26 2B 445 44 104 19 3 7 43 2 1
Nolan Reimold R 31 LF 176 18 37 7 0 6 20 2 1
Jamie Romak R 29 3B 496 50 101 26 3 14 55 4 1
Blake Lalli L 32 C 342 33 75 15 1 5 30 0 1
Matt Pagnozzi R 32 C 285 27 54 8 0 6 24 0 0
Zach Borenstein L 24 LF 473 53 107 23 4 14 53 6 6
Danny Dorn L 30 RF 427 45 91 19 3 14 50 3 2
Mitchell Haniger R 24 RF 345 40 75 16 2 8 35 3 1
Dustin Martin L 31 RF 334 36 72 15 2 7 34 6 4
Walter Ibarra B 27 2B 325 30 74 13 1 4 25 4 3
Danny Worth R 29 2B 342 28 62 16 2 3 23 7 3
Aaron Cunningham R 29 LF 342 34 70 19 3 4 31 3 2
Socrates Brito L 22 RF 585 60 136 25 5 6 49 26 11
Mike Jacobs L 34 1B 481 49 97 20 0 13 51 0 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Paul Goldschmidt 595 13.1% 23.5% .244 .335 .283 .378 .527 .384
A.J. Pollock 399 6.8% 17.3% .179 .328 .283 .335 .462 .353
Chris Owings 518 4.1% 18.7% .134 .327 .276 .309 .410 .319
Ender Inciarte 576 5.4% 13.4% .093 .312 .275 .316 .368 .306
Yasmany Tomas 520 4.4% 18.3% .197 .293 .267 .302 .464 .334
Jacob Lamb 464 7.1% 27.8% .168 .316 .244 .302 .412 .314
Brandon Drury 625 5.3% 19.7% .151 .286 .246 .291 .397 .302
Nick Ahmed 573 5.4% 17.5% .096 .288 .243 .289 .339 .278
Aaron Hill 518 6.4% 14.1% .143 .286 .263 .315 .406 .315
Peter O’Brien 469 4.7% 31.6% .246 .297 .241 .281 .487 .332
Mark Trumbo 528 7.0% 23.1% .233 .292 .262 .314 .495 .346
David Peralta 458 4.1% 15.9% .164 .318 .283 .315 .447 .332
Cliff Pennington 336 8.3% 18.8% .096 .301 .248 .315 .344 .294
Eric Chavez 139 8.6% 20.1% .186 .287 .258 .317 .444 .330
Oscar Hernandez 342 4.1% 21.1% .130 .273 .233 .267 .363 .271
Jordan Pacheco 357 4.8% 13.2% .087 .294 .259 .299 .346 .286
Tyler Bortnick 311 8.4% 20.3% .094 .292 .232 .308 .326 .291
Andy Marte 377 5.6% 16.7% .136 .279 .250 .292 .386 .297
Ronny Cedeno 309 5.5% 19.4% .102 .305 .249 .295 .351 .281
Cody Ross 350 7.4% 20.0% .135 .298 .255 .314 .390 .312
Tuffy Gosewisch 261 3.4% 19.2% .113 .262 .223 .254 .336 .259
Nick Evans 329 7.3% 22.8% .167 .301 .252 .307 .419 .317
Jordan Parraz 229 6.1% 24.0% .137 .273 .223 .284 .360 .288
Nick Buss 588 5.3% 16.5% .119 .289 .251 .296 .370 .291
Garrett Weber 445 3.8% 22.5% .110 .309 .248 .284 .358 .284
Nolan Reimold 176 8.0% 26.1% .158 .284 .234 .295 .392 .301
Jamie Romak 496 6.0% 25.6% .162 .272 .221 .273 .383 .290
Blake Lalli 342 5.0% 22.2% .099 .289 .234 .273 .333 .266
Matt Pagnozzi 285 5.6% 26.3% .100 .267 .208 .266 .308 .258
Zach Borenstein 473 6.1% 24.5% .168 .300 .246 .294 .414 .307
Danny Dorn 427 6.8% 24.8% .172 .281 .234 .289 .406 .303
Mitchell Haniger 345 6.4% 23.2% .140 .291 .238 .294 .378 .296
Dustin Martin 334 7.5% 26.6% .130 .307 .235 .293 .365 .293
Walter Ibarra 325 2.8% 24.0% .087 .306 .239 .264 .326 .259
Danny Worth 342 7.6% 28.7% .094 .281 .200 .265 .294 .253
Aaron Cunningham 342 7.0% 19.3% .119 .272 .225 .287 .344 .280
Socrates Brito 585 4.1% 24.6% .095 .317 .244 .275 .339 .273
Mike Jacobs 481 6.9% 28.1% .134 .281 .219 .272 .353 .275

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Paul Goldschmidt 595 7.6 144 2 4.2 Derrek Lee
A.J. Pollock 399 6.1 115 6 3.2 Mitch Webster
Chris Owings 518 5.0 95 2 2.4 Sea Bass Gonzalez
Ender Inciarte 576 4.7 87 7 2.3 Endy Chavez
Yasmany Tomas 520 5.1 106 -4 1.9 Kevin Kouzmanoff
Jacob Lamb 464 4.5 93 1 1.4 Boi Rodriguez
Brandon Drury 625 4.1 86 2 1.4 Mike Bell
Nick Ahmed 573 3.5 71 6 1.2 Alex Prieto
Aaron Hill 518 4.6 95 -3 1.2 Rich Aurilia
Peter O’Brien 469 4.9 105 -16 1.2 Mike Piazza
Mark Trumbo 528 5.7 117 -9 1.1 Israel Alcantara
David Peralta 458 5.3 106 -2 1.1 Dave Martinez
Cliff Pennington 336 3.9 81 1 1.0 Kevin Stocker
Eric Chavez 139 5.3 105 -1 0.5 Richie Hebner
Oscar Hernandez 342 3.2 70 0 0.4 Jeff Goldbach
Jordan Pacheco 357 3.8 76 -5 0.3 Angelo Encarnacion
Tyler Bortnick 311 3.8 74 -1 0.3 Matt Matulia
Andy Marte 377 4.1 84 -3 0.3 Jason Wood
Ronny Cedeno 309 3.6 76 1 0.3 Joe DeMaestri
Cody Ross 350 4.4 91 -1 0.2 Shane Spencer
Tuffy Gosewisch 261 2.9 60 1 0.2 Charlie Greene
Nick Evans 329 4.6 96 0 0.1 Mendy Lopez
Jordan Parraz 229 3.5 75 4 0.1 Lou List
Nick Buss 588 4.0 81 3 0.0 Jim Wawruck
Garrett Weber 445 3.7 74 -2 0.0 Mendy Lopez
Nolan Reimold 176 4.1 86 0 0.0 Darrell Whitmore
Jamie Romak 496 3.7 77 -4 0.0 Bryn Kosco
Blake Lalli 342 3.1 65 -3 -0.1 Jamie Quirk
Matt Pagnozzi 285 2.8 56 -1 -0.1 Chad Moeller
Zach Borenstein 473 4.2 91 -4 -0.2 David Kelton
Danny Dorn 427 4.1 88 -3 -0.2 Doug DeVore
Mitchell Haniger 345 4.0 82 -1 -0.2 Julio Vinas
Dustin Martin 334 3.7 79 -1 -0.3 Dann Howitt
Walter Ibarra 325 3.0 60 0 -0.5 Adolfo Gonzalez
Danny Worth 342 2.7 53 2 -0.5 Frank Kremblas
Aaron Cunningham 342 3.4 72 -1 -0.6 Greg Creek
Socrates Brito 585 3.4 67 0 -1.3 Elijah Bonaparte
Mike Jacobs 481 3.3 69 0 -1.5 Jody Davis

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Patrick Corbin L 25 22 21 145.3 108 38 14 141 64 60
Josh Collmenter R 29 27 25 150.7 112 40 17 148 70 65
Chase Anderson R 27 24 24 135.0 120 42 17 134 65 61
A.A. Ron Blair R 23 26 26 145.3 136 54 18 142 73 68
Rubby de la Rosa R 26 29 29 159.7 118 56 18 170 83 78
Bronson Arroyo R 38 17 17 106.3 62 21 14 113 54 50
Trevor Cahill R 27 33 26 154.3 130 68 16 154 81 76
Allen Webster R 25 29 27 144.7 99 57 15 150 77 72
Jeremy Hellickson R 28 25 25 130.7 98 37 18 138 70 65
Archie Bradley R 22 21 21 103.0 80 55 9 103 55 51
Andrew Chafin L 25 27 25 140.3 103 64 15 146 77 72
Vidal Nuno L 27 24 20 113.3 87 32 17 116 61 57
David Hernandez R 30 54 0 52.3 61 20 6 43 20 19
Evan Marshall R 25 67 0 66.7 66 26 5 61 28 26
Brad Ziegler R 35 67 0 61.7 45 21 5 58 26 24
Addison Reed R 26 65 0 63.7 68 17 7 57 27 25
Kevin Munson R 26 57 0 61.0 70 23 7 52 26 24
Randall Delgado R 25 37 17 116.0 103 48 16 116 63 59
Oliver Perez L 33 58 0 54.0 62 24 6 48 24 22
Matt Reynolds L 30 37 0 33.0 28 8 3 32 14 13
Jimmie Sherfy R 23 39 0 39.0 44 16 5 34 17 16
Braden Shipley R 23 23 23 118.3 98 47 17 123 68 64
Enrique Burgos R 24 55 0 50.7 64 30 5 42 24 22
Daniel Hudson R 28 4 4 18.3 14 5 2 19 10 9
J.J. Putz R 38 25 0 21.0 22 10 2 19 10 9
Derek Eitel R 27 34 0 51.3 56 24 7 46 25 23
Lucas Harrell R 30 27 22 133.3 85 66 15 139 78 73
Bo Schultz R 29 35 15 106.7 63 38 12 118 61 57
Jake Barrett R 23 57 0 54.7 47 22 6 53 27 25
AJ Schugel R 26 23 23 117.3 78 54 13 127 70 65
Jess Todd R 29 47 0 64.7 54 27 6 63 32 30
Kaleb Fleck R 26 50 0 53.7 51 27 6 51 27 25
Robbie Ray L 23 27 25 125.7 97 54 18 134 75 70
Will Locante L 25 39 0 43.3 40 27 4 40 22 21
Patrick Schuster L 24 59 0 43.0 38 21 5 41 22 21
Jose Jose L 24 34 0 35.3 34 18 4 34 19 18
Matt Stites R 25 58 0 54.7 46 18 8 55 29 27
Kameron Loe R 33 39 3 59.7 36 19 8 67 35 33
Tim Crabbe R 27 28 19 112.7 73 54 16 126 72 67
Caleb Clay R 27 26 18 110.7 62 34 19 128 72 67
Graham Godfrey R 30 18 10 67.3 34 28 12 80 47 44
Bradin Hagens R 26 29 20 119.3 62 67 14 135 78 73
J.C. Ramirez R 26 44 0 56.3 37 30 8 62 36 34
Blake Beavan R 26 25 14 99.7 47 25 19 120 68 64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Patrick Corbin 145.3 615 17.6% 6.2% .283 3.72 3.87 95 99
Josh Collmenter 150.7 640 17.5% 6.2% .279 3.88 3.93 99 101
Chase Anderson 135.0 581 20.7% 7.2% .295 4.07 4.10 104 105
A.A. Ron Blair 145.3 632 21.5% 8.5% .298 4.21 4.24 108 109
Rubby de la Rosa 159.7 705 16.7% 7.9% .299 4.40 4.35 113 112
Bronson Arroyo 106.3 453 13.7% 4.6% .281 4.23 4.44 108 114
Trevor Cahill 154.3 685 19.0% 9.9% .297 4.43 4.32 114 111
Allen Webster 144.7 641 15.4% 8.9% .294 4.48 4.61 115 118
Jeremy Hellickson 130.7 567 17.3% 6.5% .292 4.48 4.40 115 113
Archie Bradley 103.0 467 17.1% 11.8% .297 4.46 4.55 114 117
Andrew Chafin 140.3 631 16.3% 10.1% .298 4.62 4.66 118 119
Vidal Nuno 113.3 488 17.8% 6.6% .285 4.53 4.61 116 118
David Hernandez 52.3 220 27.7% 9.1% .285 3.27 3.58 84 92
Evan Marshall 66.7 287 23.0% 9.1% .301 3.51 3.43 90 88
Brad Ziegler 61.7 264 17.0% 8.0% .277 3.50 3.69 90 95
Addison Reed 63.7 265 25.7% 6.4% .292 3.53 3.31 91 85
Kevin Munson 61.0 258 27.1% 8.9% .290 3.54 3.50 91 90
Randall Delgado 116.0 512 20.1% 9.4% .293 4.58 4.53 117 116
Oliver Perez 54.0 234 26.5% 10.3% .304 3.67 3.81 94 98
Matt Reynolds 33.0 139 20.1% 5.8% .290 3.55 3.25 91 83
Jimmie Sherfy 39.0 167 26.3% 9.6% .290 3.69 4.01 95 103
Braden Shipley 118.3 525 18.7% 9.0% .298 4.87 4.77 125 122
Enrique Burgos 50.7 224 28.6% 13.4% .303 3.91 3.93 100 101
Daniel Hudson 18.3 79 17.7% 6.3% .294 4.42 3.93 113 101
J.J. Putz 21.0 92 23.9% 10.9% .298 3.86 3.79 99 97
Derek Eitel 51.3 224 25.0% 10.7% .291 4.03 4.27 103 109
Lucas Harrell 133.3 605 14.1% 10.9% .285 4.93 4.91 126 126
Bo Schultz 106.7 476 13.2% 8.0% .297 4.81 4.65 123 119
Jake Barrett 54.7 239 19.7% 9.2% .292 4.12 4.13 106 106
AJ Schugel 117.3 533 14.6% 10.1% .299 4.99 4.86 128 125
Jess Todd 64.7 284 19.0% 9.5% .294 4.18 4.01 107 103
Kaleb Fleck 53.7 239 21.3% 11.3% .296 4.19 4.33 107 111
Robbie Ray 125.7 565 17.2% 9.6% .297 5.01 4.97 128 127
Will Locante 43.3 197 20.3% 13.7% .293 4.36 4.65 112 119
Patrick Schuster 43.0 191 19.9% 11.0% .288 4.40 4.50 113 115
Jose Jose 35.3 158 21.5% 11.4% .300 4.58 4.38 117 112
Matt Stites 54.7 237 19.4% 7.6% .290 4.45 4.53 114 116
Kameron Loe 59.7 265 13.6% 7.2% .296 4.98 4.76 128 122
Tim Crabbe 112.7 518 14.1% 10.4% .300 5.35 5.39 137 138
Caleb Clay 110.7 494 12.5% 6.9% .292 5.45 5.39 140 138
Graham Godfrey 67.3 310 11.0% 9.0% .294 5.88 6.00 151 154
Bradin Hagens 119.3 560 11.1% 12.0% .296 5.51 5.59 141 143
J.C. Ramirez 56.3 261 14.2% 11.5% .295 5.43 5.46 139 140
Blake Beavan 99.7 444 10.6% 5.6% .291 5.78 5.68 148 146

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Patrick Corbin 145.3 6.69 2.35 0.87 105 2.4 Mark Thurmond
Josh Collmenter 150.7 6.69 2.39 1.02 100 2.1 Jae-Weong Seo
Chase Anderson 135.0 8.00 2.80 1.13 96 1.6 Ryan Nye
A.A. Ron Blair 145.3 8.42 3.34 1.11 93 1.4 Pete Harnisch
Rubby de la Rosa 159.7 6.65 3.16 1.01 89 1.2 Aaron France
Bronson Arroyo 106.3 5.25 1.78 1.19 92 1.0 Dennis Springer
Trevor Cahill 154.3 7.58 3.97 0.93 88 1.0 Ryan Bowen
Allen Webster 144.7 6.16 3.55 0.93 87 0.9 Darin Blood
Jeremy Hellickson 130.7 6.75 2.55 1.24 87 0.8 Larry Luebbers
Archie Bradley 103.0 6.99 4.81 0.79 87 0.7 Dick Ruthven
Andrew Chafin 140.3 6.61 4.11 0.96 84 0.6 Brian O’Connor
Vidal Nuno 113.3 6.91 2.54 1.35 86 0.6 Blaise Ilsley
David Hernandez 52.3 10.50 3.44 1.03 119 0.6 Chris Schroder
Evan Marshall 66.7 8.91 3.51 0.67 111 0.5 Lee Smith
Brad Ziegler 61.7 6.56 3.06 0.73 111 0.5 Moe Drabowsky
Addison Reed 63.7 9.61 2.40 0.99 110 0.5 Luis DeLeon
Kevin Munson 61.0 10.33 3.39 1.03 110 0.5 Fernando Cabrera
Randall Delgado 116.0 7.99 3.72 1.24 85 0.4 Brian Reith
Oliver Perez 54.0 10.33 4.00 1.00 106 0.3 Rod Scurry
Matt Reynolds 33.0 7.64 2.18 0.82 110 0.3 Mark Holzemer
Jimmie Sherfy 39.0 10.15 3.69 1.15 106 0.2 Brian Bruney
Braden Shipley 118.3 7.46 3.58 1.29 80 0.2 Jesse Floyd
Enrique Burgos 50.7 11.36 5.33 0.89 100 0.2 Brian Bruney
Daniel Hudson 18.3 6.89 2.46 0.98 88 0.1 Kyle Snyder
J.J. Putz 21.0 9.43 4.29 0.86 101 0.1 Mike Fetters
Derek Eitel 51.3 9.82 4.21 1.23 97 0.1 Steve Sparks
Lucas Harrell 133.3 5.74 4.46 1.01 79 0.0 Tony Cloninger
Bo Schultz 106.7 5.31 3.21 1.01 81 0.0 Elliot Brown
Jake Barrett 54.7 7.73 3.62 0.99 95 0.0 Blaine Neal
AJ Schugel 117.3 5.98 4.14 1.00 78 0.0 Brett Laxton
Jess Todd 64.7 7.51 3.76 0.83 93 0.0 Ryan Henderson
Kaleb Fleck 53.7 8.55 4.53 1.01 93 0.0 Bob Gibson
Robbie Ray 125.7 6.95 3.87 1.29 78 -0.1 Derek Root
Will Locante 43.3 8.31 5.61 0.83 89 -0.1 Scott Wiggins
Patrick Schuster 43.0 7.95 4.40 1.05 89 -0.1 Buzz Oliver
Jose Jose 35.3 8.67 4.59 1.02 85 -0.2 Tim Drummond
Matt Stites 54.7 7.57 2.96 1.32 88 -0.2 Todd Erdos
Kameron Loe 59.7 5.43 2.86 1.21 78 -0.4 Brandon Puffer
Tim Crabbe 112.7 5.83 4.31 1.28 73 -0.6 Jose Segura
Caleb Clay 110.7 5.04 2.76 1.54 72 -0.8 Ron Jensen
Graham Godfrey 67.3 4.55 3.74 1.60 66 -0.9 Jim Owens
Bradin Hagens 119.3 4.68 5.05 1.06 71 -0.9 Charlie Zink
J.C. Ramirez 56.3 5.91 4.80 1.28 72 -0.9 Matt Smith
Blake Beavan 99.7 4.24 2.26 1.72 67 -1.2 Justin Pope

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Arizona Diamondbacks by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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DrBGiantsfan
Guest

I keep looking at O’Brien’s line and thinking Gosewich and Hernandez are not very big obstacles and that maybe he is the reason why Dave Stewart thought he could trade Montero. I guess the question is whether O’Brien will ever be able to field the position at the MLB level.