2015 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Baseball Club. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York NL / Oakland / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Cleveland finished tied with Houston in 2014 for last place among all clubs in defensive runs. That’s not ever really a “positive” distinction. That said, were one in the business of identifying silver linings, a legitimate one in this case might concern how defensive metrics are prone to greater regression than most offensive stats — and thus projection systems such as ZiPS are unlikely to weight seasons like Cleveland’s 2014 campaign as heavily.

By the projections, the 2015 iteration of Cleveland’s baseball team doesn’t actually profile as a particularly bad defensive club. Lonnie Chisenhall, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana are all forecast to finish on the negative side of the defensive ledger relative to their position, but Michael Brantley and Yan Gomes and Jose Ramirez are all projected to save more runs than average at their respective positions. The result, it would appear, is a roughly league-average group of hitters.

Pitchers
With regard to the starting pitchers depicted in the depth-chart image below, the reader should know that they’re listed not in the precise order manager Terry Francona is expected to dispatch them this next season. Rather, it’s a collection of the pitchers who appear most likely to begin the season in the rotation, in order of projected WAR.

Of some note is ZiPS’ relative pessimism regarding Carlos Carrasco, who produced the fourth-highest WAR figure among all pitchers — tied with the now vigorously wealthy Max Scherzer — over the second half of last season. At least part of the explanation, noted by Szymborski himself, concerns his projected role: over the last two seasons, Carrasco has recorded more than half his appearances in a relief capacity. ZiPS, not surprisingly, calls for a similar arrangement in 2015, suppressing Carrasco’s inning projection at the same time.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth-chart image below are two role players, Mike Aviles (414 PA, 0.6 WAR) and David Murphy (453 PA, 0.6 WAR), who are likely to receive a fair amount of playing time. Among young field-playing infielders, Francisco Lindor (552 PA, 1.9 WAR), Jose Ramirez (584 PA, 2.2 WAR), and Zach Walters (492 PA, 1.9 WAR) all receive similar projections for 2015. A mostly effective member of the rotation in 2014, T.J. House (123.2 IP, -0.1 WAR) is not forecast by ZiPS to replicate that performance in 2015, his projected strikeout and walk rates appearing to more closely resemble a translation of his minor-league numbers from the past several years than his (somehow better) major-league ones.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelanders, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Yan Gomes	R	27	C	470	58	117	24	3	17	64	1	0
Michael Brantley	L	28	LF	651	83	175	37	3	13	84	18	4
Carlos Santana	B	29	1B	619	73	128	29	1	23	84	4	2
Jason Kipnis	L	28	2B	625	80	142	28	3	13	68	25	5
Jose Ramirez	B	22	SS	584	67	140	23	4	7	47	27	12
Lonnie Chisenhall	L	26	3B	485	59	120	26	1	14	59	3	1
Michael Bourn	L	32	CF	591	73	139	22	9	5	43	22	9
Francisco Lindor	B	21	SS	552	61	124	17	4	11	49	19	11
Zach Walters	B	25	2B	492	57	108	24	5	24	64	2	3
Brandon Moss	L	31	1B	523	66	109	22	2	28	77	3	1
Giovanny Urshela	R	23	3B	542	61	132	28	4	9	62	1	2
Roberto Perez	R	26	C	333	32	56	14	1	5	27	1	1
Mike Aviles	R	34	2B	414	46	96	18	1	8	48	11	6
Tony Wolters	L	23	C	389	34	79	13	1	2	26	3	4
David Murphy	L	33	RF	453	43	105	23	2	9	49	4	4
Nick Swisher	B	34	DH	489	50	98	23	1	14	58	1	1
Nyjer Morgan	L	34	CF	258	29	56	9	1	4	21	5	2
Erik Gonzalez	R	23	SS	520	50	114	20	5	5	45	12	7
James Ramsey	L	25	CF	461	47	84	14	3	9	36	7	3
Dusty Brown	R	33	C	151	14	27	8	0	4	14	0	0
Chris Dickerson	L	33	CF	332	37	65	13	1	7	27	10	3
Elliot Johnson	B	31	2B	323	31	62	10	3	4	25	11	3
David Cooper	L	28	1B	257	26	61	15	0	4	24	0	1
Tyler Naquin	L	24	CF	408	42	86	14	3	5	32	9	5
Brett Hayes	R	31	C	181	17	36	8	0	6	15	1	0
Adam Moore	R	31	C	250	27	49	11	0	6	21	1	0
Russell Branyan	L	39	1B	212	28	38	8	0	10	29	1	0
Ryan Rohlinger	R	31	2B	379	35	74	13	0	4	27	1	1
Jerry Sands	R	27	RF	393	43	74	14	1	12	43	1	1
Luke Carlin	B	34	C	233	23	43	9	0	3	18	1	1
Jesus Aguilar	R	25	1B	555	61	117	24	0	15	64	0	0
Jason Giambi	L	44	DH	126	11	21	6	0	4	16	0	0
Ryan Raburn	R	34	RF	268	28	53	13	0	8	33	0	0
Tyler Holt!	R	26	CF	560	56	112	16	3	1	29	21	7
Matt Carson	R	33	CF	420	43	86	15	1	9	36	8	2
Bryan LaHair	L	32	1B	423	38	85	18	1	10	43	1	1
Carlos Moncrief	L	26	RF	525	53	103	21	4	11	50	9	4
Destin Hood	R	25	LF	458	43	92	19	3	8	42	7	4
Clint Frazier	R	20	CF	505	52	97	17	3	11	44	7	6
Audy Ciriaco	R	28	1B	391	38	81	16	2	9	39	5	3
Dorssys Paulino	R	20	LF	520	46	104	22	2	4	36	6	7

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Yan Gomes	470	5.3%	23.8%	.186	.322	.269	.313	.455	.335
Michael Brantley	651	7.5%	10.0%	.139	.313	.297	.352	.436	.346
Carlos Santana	619	15.5%	18.4%	.194	.274	.249	.367	.443	.355
Jason Kipnis	625	9.6%	19.5%	.132	.304	.256	.330	.388	.322
Jose Ramirez	584	5.7%	11.5%	.097	.287	.263	.304	.360	.290
Lonnie Chisenhall	485	6.2%	19.2%	.158	.313	.271	.325	.429	.330
Michael Bourn	591	7.1%	23.2%	.102	.334	.257	.313	.359	.299
Francisco Lindor	552	6.5%	20.5%	.114	.292	.244	.294	.358	.287
Zach Walters	492	4.1%	31.7%	.228	.293	.233	.267	.461	.314
Brandon Moss	523	9.9%	30.2%	.239	.291	.236	.321	.475	.345
Giovanny Urshela	542	3.9%	14.0%	.122	.285	.257	.289	.379	.292
Roberto Perez	333	9.9%	29.1%	.107	.270	.194	.281	.301	.260
Mike Aviles	414	3.6%	13.3%	.115	.269	.250	.278	.365	.278
Tony Wolters	389	6.7%	24.4%	.059	.295	.223	.277	.282	.248
David Murphy	453	7.9%	13.9%	.132	.281	.256	.316	.388	.306
Nick Swisher	489	11.0%	24.7%	.157	.283	.229	.316	.386	.310
Nyjer Morgan	258	5.4%	22.9%	.100	.308	.243	.299	.343	.282
Erik Gonzalez	520	3.8%	24.4%	.091	.298	.230	.259	.321	.254
James Ramsey	461	8.5%	34.9%	.115	.307	.204	.279	.319	.269
Dusty Brown	151	9.3%	27.8%	.148	.256	.200	.278	.348	.282
Chris Dickerson	332	8.1%	31.3%	.121	.307	.218	.290	.339	.286
Elliot Johnson	323	6.8%	27.2%	.095	.284	.211	.266	.306	.258
David Cooper	257	7.4%	12.5%	.114	.284	.260	.315	.374	.303
Tyler Naquin	408	5.4%	29.2%	.092	.315	.227	.275	.319	.266
Brett Hayes	181	3.3%	29.8%	.151	.265	.209	.239	.360	.260
Adam Moore	250	6.0%	29.6%	.125	.279	.211	.260	.336	.267
Russell Branyan	212	11.8%	37.7%	.207	.292	.208	.302	.415	.309
Ryan Rohlinger	379	6.3%	19.8%	.073	.263	.216	.275	.289	.252
Jerry Sands	393	8.9%	31.3%	.147	.281	.210	.282	.357	.286
Luke Carlin	233	9.4%	21.0%	.087	.256	.208	.286	.295	.263
Jesus Aguilar	555	7.6%	27.0%	.137	.297	.233	.295	.370	.295
Jason Giambi	126	10.3%	27.8%	.164	.236	.191	.286	.355	.284
Ryan Raburn	268	6.7%	26.5%	.151	.268	.216	.273	.367	.282
Tyler Holt!	560	8.2%	23.0%	.049	.296	.223	.291	.272	.259
Matt Carson	420	5.2%	29.3%	.113	.297	.221	.270	.334	.270
Bryan LaHair	423	8.0%	36.2%	.129	.332	.220	.281	.349	.280
Carlos Moncrief	525	6.3%	32.0%	.128	.299	.213	.264	.341	.266
Destin Hood	458	5.0%	31.4%	.114	.301	.215	.260	.329	.261
Clint Frazier	505	6.3%	39.2%	.120	.333	.210	.266	.330	.264
Audy Ciriaco	391	4.1%	23.5%	.127	.266	.219	.254	.346	.265
Dorssys Paulino	520	4.2%	27.1%	.078	.291	.214	.252	.292	.239

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Yan Gomes	470	5.3	117	3	3.8	Pat Borders
Michael Brantley	651	6.1	124	1	3.4	Mark Kotsay
Carlos Santana	619	5.8	131	-3	2.7	Randy Milligan
Jason Kipnis	625	4.9	105	-5	2.6	Lou Whitaker
Jose Ramirez	584	4.1	90	3	2.2	Harold Reynolds
Lonnie Chisenhall	485	5.2	114	-4	2.2	Roy Howell
Michael Bourn	591	4.2	92	2	1.9	Ed Stroud
Francisco Lindor	552	3.7	86	3	1.9	Luis Quinones
Zach Walters	492	4.3	104	0	1.9	Andy Phillips
Brandon Moss	523	5.4	124	-3	1.7	Paul Sorrento
Giovanny Urshela	542	3.9	90	1	1.3	Isaiah Clark
Roberto Perez	333	2.8	67	3	0.9	Joe Hietpas
Mike Aviles	414	3.6	82	1	0.6	Billy Martin
Tony Wolters	389	2.6	61	4	0.6	Jeff Tackett
David Murphy	453	4.4	100	-2	0.6	Andy Abad
Nick Swisher	489	4.2	100	0	0.6	Roy Smalley
Nyjer Morgan	258	3.7	84	-1	0.3	Andy Van Slyke
Erik Gonzalez	520	2.9	65	3	0.3	Smelin Perez
James Ramsey	461	3.1	71	1	0.3	Mike Neill
Dusty Brown	151	3.3	78	-2	0.2	Steve Yeager
Chris Dickerson	332	3.5	80	-4	0.1	Terrell Lowery
Elliot Johnson	323	3.0	64	1	0.0	Pat Listach
David Cooper	257	4.2	97	-1	0.0	Eddie Tanner
Tyler Naquin	408	3.0	70	0	0.0	Kevin Wiggins
Brett Hayes	181	3.0	69	-3	0.0	Chad Moeller
Adam Moore	250	3.0	69	-5	-0.1	George Mitterwald
Russell Branyan	212	4.3	103	-3	-0.1	Jeff Manto
Ryan Rohlinger	379	2.7	62	2	-0.1	Chris Petersen
Jerry Sands	393	3.4	82	0	-0.1	Paul Torres
Luke Carlin	233	2.8	67	-5	-0.1	Kirt Manwaring
Jesus Aguilar	555	3.8	89	0	-0.2	Nick Leach
Jason Giambi	126	3.4	82	-1	-0.2	Willie McCovey
Ryan Raburn	268	3.5	82	-3	-0.4	Alan Cockrell
Tyler Holt!	560	2.9	63	-3	-0.4	Sebastien Boucher
Matt Carson	420	3.2	72	-10	-0.8	Damon Buford
Bryan LaHair	423	3.4	79	-2	-0.9	Orsino Hill
Carlos Moncrief	525	3.1	72	-1	-1.0	Richie Robnett
Destin Hood	458	2.9	67	0	-1.0	Ed Smith
Clint Frazier	505	2.9	70	-9	-1.0	Jim Olander
Audy Ciriaco	391	3.0	70	-3	-1.5	Eric Reece
Dorssys Paulino	520	2.4	55	-1	-2.1	Brett Caradonna

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Corey Kluber	R	29	31	31	206.3	226	44	16	181	73	68
Danny Salazar	R	25	28	28	156.0	177	52	18	141	71	66
Carlos Carrasco	R	28	35	16	119.0	111	34	10	113	52	49
Trevor Bauer	R	24	29	29	167.7	163	72	18	162	86	80
Zach McAllister	R	27	29	26	149.0	114	43	13	157	75	70
Cody Allen	R	26	75	0	68.7	85	27	7	57	26	24
Bryan Shaw	R	27	75	0	74.7	70	25	6	67	31	29
Gavin Floyd	R	32	15	15	84.7	70	28	11	90	45	42
Shaun Marcum	R	33	13	10	59.0	47	19	6	61	31	29
Kyle Crockett	L	23	50	0	42.7	40	11	4	41	18	17
Scott Atchison	R	39	55	0	52.0	38	12	5	52	24	22
Anthony Swarzak	R	29	48	2	87.7	61	25	7	92	43	40
C.C. Lee	R	28	54	0	49.7	48	18	5	48	24	22
T.J. House	L	25	23	22	123.7	85	43	14	138	71	66
Marc Rzepczynski	L	29	70	0	53.0	45	21	5	53	26	24
Josh Tomlin	R	30	22	16	93.7	73	17	14	104	54	50
Matt Capps	R	31	11	0	10.7	8	3	2	12	6	6
Scott Downs	L	39	50	0	33.0	25	14	3	34	17	16
Austin Adams	R	28	48	0	56.7	52	21	6	56	29	27
Shawn Armstrong	R	24	45	0	49.7	54	23	6	47	26	24
Nick Hagadone	L	29	54	0	49.3	53	24	6	46	26	24
Charles Brewer	R	27	27	25	146.0	108	45	20	163	86	80
Dustin Molleken	R	30	38	0	51.3	48	23	6	52	28	26
Tyler Sturdevant	R	29	40	0	46.3	38	18	6	49	27	25
Bryan Price	R	28	39	0	55.0	48	19	9	59	33	31
Jeff Manship	R	30	30	11	78.7	52	40	8	88	50	47
Mike Clevinger	R	24	16	15	61.3	46	34	12	72	46	43
Nick Maronde	L	25	40	7	61.3	53	39	11	69	45	42
Kyle Davies	R	31	20	20	105.0	60	30	19	128	74	69
Ryan Merritt	L	23	25	24	135.0	81	29	25	162	91	85
Michael Roth	L	25	25	17	93.0	54	46	15	112	67	63
Cody Anderson	R	24	25	25	115.0	73	46	23	140	87	81
Tyler Cloyd	R	28	28	27	153.0	96	42	33	188	111	104

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Corey Kluber	206.3	844	26.8%	5.2%	.299	2.97	3.03	78	79
Danny Salazar	156.0	661	26.8%	7.9%	.301	3.81	3.80	100	100
Carlos Carrasco	119.0	504	22.0%	6.7%	.299	3.71	3.67	97	96
Trevor Bauer	167.7	737	22.1%	9.8%	.304	4.29	4.41	113	116
Zach McAllister	149.0	647	17.6%	6.6%	.305	4.23	4.06	111	107
Cody Allen	68.7	290	29.3%	9.3%	.294	3.15	3.45	83	91
Bryan Shaw	74.7	316	22.1%	7.9%	.288	3.50	3.68	92	97
Gavin Floyd	84.7	372	18.8%	7.5%	.306	4.46	4.68	117	123
Shaun Marcum	59.0	257	18.3%	7.4%	.302	4.42	4.31	116	113
Kyle Crockett	42.7	180	22.2%	6.1%	.303	3.59	3.77	94	99
Scott Atchison	52.0	220	17.3%	5.5%	.285	3.81	3.88	100	102
Anthony Swarzak	87.7	380	16.0%	6.6%	.297	4.11	3.94	108	103
C.C. Lee	49.7	215	22.3%	8.4%	.305	3.99	4.09	105	107
T.J. House	123.7	552	15.4%	7.8%	.308	4.80	4.84	126	127
Marc Rzepczynski	53.0	233	19.3%	9.0%	.302	4.08	4.23	107	111
Josh Tomlin	93.7	402	18.2%	4.2%	.304	4.80	4.44	126	116
Matt Capps	10.7	47	17.0%	6.4%	.293	5.06	5.29	133	139
Scott Downs	33.0	147	17.0%	9.5%	.298	4.36	4.36	114	114
Austin Adams	56.7	247	21.0%	8.5%	.301	4.29	4.27	113	112
Shawn Armstrong	49.7	219	24.6%	10.5%	.308	4.35	4.42	114	116
Nick Hagadone	49.3	218	24.3%	11.0%	.299	4.38	4.34	115	114
Charles Brewer	146.0	646	16.7%	7.0%	.308	4.93	4.90	129	129
Dustin Molleken	51.3	229	21.0%	10.0%	.309	4.56	4.62	120	121
Tyler Sturdevant	46.3	206	18.5%	8.7%	.305	4.86	4.85	127	127
Bryan Price	55.0	243	19.8%	7.8%	.307	5.07	5.15	133	135
Jeff Manship	78.7	364	14.3%	11.0%	.308	5.38	5.07	141	133
Mike Clevinger	61.3	290	15.9%	11.7%	.308	6.31	6.36	166	167
Nick Maronde	61.3	292	18.2%	13.4%	.314	6.16	6.17	162	162
Kyle Davies	105.0	473	12.7%	6.3%	.304	5.91	5.72	155	150
Ryan Merritt	135.0	596	13.6%	4.9%	.302	5.67	5.54	149	145
Michael Roth	93.0	437	12.4%	10.5%	.308	6.10	6.09	160	160
Cody Anderson	115.0	531	13.7%	8.7%	.306	6.34	6.22	166	163
Tyler Cloyd	153.0	689	13.9%	6.1%	.305	6.12	6.02	161	158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Corey Kluber	206.3	9.86	1.92	0.70	126	4.8	Jose Rijo
Danny Salazar	156.0	10.21	3.00	1.04	98	1.9	Jack McDowell
Carlos Carrasco	119.0	8.39	2.57	0.76	101	1.4	Joaquin Andujar
Trevor Bauer	167.7	8.75	3.86	0.97	87	1.0	Frank Williams
Zach McAllister	149.0	6.89	2.60	0.79	88	1.0	Mike Scott
Cody Allen	68.7	11.14	3.54	0.92	118	0.7	Brad Lidge
Bryan Shaw	74.7	8.43	3.01	0.72	107	0.4	John Riedling
Gavin Floyd	84.7	7.44	2.98	1.17	83	0.3	Scott Kamieniecki
Shaun Marcum	59.0	7.17	2.90	0.92	84	0.2	Eric Rasmussen
Kyle Crockett	42.7	8.43	2.32	0.84	104	0.2	Dave Von Ohlen
Scott Atchison	52.0	6.58	2.08	0.87	98	0.1	Barney Schultz
Anthony Swarzak	87.7	6.26	2.57	0.72	91	0.0	Jose Santiago
C.C. Lee	49.7	8.69	3.26	0.91	94	0.0	Gerry Hannahs
T.J. House	123.7	6.18	3.13	1.02	78	-0.1	Jake Chapman
Marc Rzepczynski	53.0	7.64	3.57	0.85	91	-0.1	Tim Hamulack
Josh Tomlin	93.7	7.01	1.63	1.34	78	-0.1	Brian Tollberg
Matt Capps	10.7	6.73	2.52	1.68	74	-0.2	Dave Eilers
Scott Downs	33.0	6.82	3.82	0.82	85	-0.2	Brian Shouse
Austin Adams	56.7	8.25	3.33	0.95	87	-0.2	Keith Glauber
Shawn Armstrong	49.7	9.78	4.16	1.09	86	-0.3	Lariel Gonzalez
Nick Hagadone	49.3	9.68	4.38	1.10	85	-0.3	Greg McCarthy
Charles Brewer	146.0	6.66	2.77	1.23	76	-0.3	Bryan Clutterbuck
Dustin Molleken	51.3	8.42	4.04	1.05	82	-0.4	Reggie Harris
Tyler Sturdevant	46.3	7.39	3.50	1.17	77	-0.5	Ryan Bukvich
Bryan Price	55.0	7.85	3.11	1.47	73	-0.8	Steve Montgomery
Jeff Manship	78.7	5.95	4.57	0.91	69	-0.8	Jarod Juelsgaard
Mike Clevinger	61.3	6.75	4.99	1.76	59	-1.2	Billy Traber
Nick Maronde	61.3	7.78	5.73	1.62	60	-1.4	Mark Lukasiewicz
Kyle Davies	105.0	5.14	2.57	1.63	63	-1.6	Aaron Small
Ryan Merritt	135.0	5.40	1.93	1.67	66	-1.6	Randy Leek
Michael Roth	93.0	5.23	4.45	1.45	61	-1.7	Jason Navarro
Cody Anderson	115.0	5.71	3.60	1.80	59	-2.4	Ty Hartshorn
Tyler Cloyd	153.0	5.65	2.47	1.94	61	-2.7	Kyle Middleton

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.