2015 ZiPS Projections – Houston Astros

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Houston Astros. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Chicago AL / Colorado / Detroit / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Oakland / San Francisco / St. Louis / Tampa Bay / Washington.

Batters
Speaking on the topic of happiness, Greek philosopher Epicurus endorsed not the unadulterated pursuit of greater and ever more lavish pleasures, as is frequently believed. Almost the opposite, in fact. By only occasionally indulging in a “pot of cheese,” for example, Epicurus effectively lowered his threshold for pleasure, such that easy attainable goods or experiences could provide it in sufficient quantity.

Compared to other major-league teams, the Astros do not appear particularly strong. Only three of their hitters, for example — or seven fewer than on the Dodgers — are projected to reach the two-win threshold this year. Compared to the 2014 edition of the club, however, this would represent a 200% improvement. A strong collection of young talent in the minors serves as further grounds for optimism.

Pitchers
The emergence of both Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh in 2014 allowed the club to distance itself by a small margin from the very bottom of the standings. Largely on the strength of their contributions, Houston’s rotation finished 12th in league by pitcher WAR. ZiPS’ forecast for the pair suggests the improvements are authentic. Consider: last year, Keuchel and McHugh were projected to produce a combined -0.2 WAR; this year, 5.7 WAR.

With regard to the bullpen, it’s likely that offseason signings Luke Gregerson and Pat Neshek will add some stability to it and perhaps, as Dave Cameron speculates, ultimately provide value as a mid-season trade chip. What appears less likely, however, is that they’ll contribute much in the way of wins — except for the innings they’ll throw which might have otherwise been allocated to other, weaker pitchers.

Bench/Prospects
Robbie Grossman appears in left field within the depth-chart image below, but Jake Marisnick is another possibility there, as well. Andrew Aplin (projected for 0.3 WAR), Domingo Santana (0.1 WAR), and Preston Tucker (-0.1 WAR) are other candidates who both (a) have recorded plate appearances at Triple-A already and also (b) feature projections within the vicinity of replacement level. Meanwhile, according to ZiPS, the prospects more prepared to contribute wins at the major-league level are Carlos Correa (1.3 WAR) and Tony Kemp (1.4 WAR).

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Astros, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Jose Altuve	R	25	2B	688	84	198	39	4	8	57	43	11
George Springer	R	25	RF	493	72	101	17	2	26	74	17	4
Jason Castro	L	28	C	464	51	100	24	2	14	55	1	0
Dexter Fowler	B	29	CF	526	61	116	18	5	11	38	13	5
Chris Carter	R	28	DH	553	70	110	23	1	30	85	4	1
Jed Lowrie	B	31	SS	525	57	121	26	2	11	51	1	0
Tony Kemp	L	23	2B	540	66	124	19	4	6	42	21	12
Carlos Correa	R	20	SS	431	51	97	19	3	6	45	12	8
Max Stassi	R	24	C	407	43	86	18	1	10	41	2	1
Hank Conger	B	27	C	282	28	61	13	0	7	29	0	1
Jake Marisnick	R	24	CF	562	59	124	22	4	11	51	21	7
Tyler Heineman	B	24	C	343	39	71	15	2	3	30	3	3
Ronnie Torreyes	R	22	2B	529	57	128	21	4	3	42	8	5
Matt Dominguez	R	25	3B	606	61	134	23	1	17	70	0	1
Gregorio Petit	R	30	SS	478	51	107	21	1	8	43	2	2
Marwin Gonzalez	B	26	SS	361	38	84	17	1	5	25	4	3
Jonathan Villar	B	24	SS	527	59	104	17	5	10	45	33	10
Carlos Corporan	B	31	C	231	24	47	8	0	6	24	0	0
Jon Singleton	L	23	1B	523	69	98	21	1	22	68	3	3
Colin Moran	L	22	3B	552	59	129	23	2	9	51	2	2
Joe Sclafani	B	25	2B	417	46	92	13	3	3	32	10	4
Brett Phillips	L	21	CF	463	54	100	20	4	12	47	11	12
Andrew Aplin	L	24	CF	523	58	109	17	3	5	44	18	9
Dan Johnson	L	35	1B	492	58	95	18	0	17	53	0	0
L.J. Hoes	R	25	LF	480	52	110	19	2	5	38	10	6
Alex Presley	L	29	LF	466	53	108	15	5	10	39	11	6
Nolan Fontana	L	24	2B	374	41	60	14	2	3	25	7	6
Rio Ruiz	L	21	3B	581	60	120	27	1	10	56	5	5
Domingo Santana	R	22	RF	520	62	104	21	2	17	60	7	5
Robbie Grossman	B	25	LF	604	69	123	24	2	9	49	13	10
Preston Tucker	L	24	LF	525	63	118	24	0	14	58	3	3
Jesus Guzman	R	31	1B	295	29	59	13	1	7	32	3	1
Teoscar Hernandez	R	22	CF	573	63	112	23	4	12	54	19	10
Jiovanni Mier	R	24	SS	400	38	71	12	0	4	26	7	6
Jonathan Meyer	R	24	3B	548	54	114	19	1	7	45	3	2
Matt Duffy	R	26	1B	567	63	121	20	2	13	56	2	3
Telvin Nash	R	24	1B	363	39	53	7	0	14	36	1	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Jose Altuve	688	5.2%	10.2%	.111	.335	.310	.347	.421	.340
George Springer	493	11.4%	32.5%	.233	.311	.238	.337	.471	.356
Jason Castro	464	8.6%	27.2%	.169	.309	.242	.313	.411	.318
Dexter Fowler	526	13.1%	24.7%	.136	.339	.258	.359	.394	.338
Chris Carter	553	11.0%	33.3%	.238	.292	.228	.316	.466	.341
Jed Lowrie	525	8.2%	15.6%	.134	.286	.256	.319	.390	.311
Tony Kemp	540	7.8%	14.8%	.094	.296	.258	.326	.352	.300
Carlos Correa	431	7.4%	21.6%	.110	.308	.247	.311	.357	.299
Max Stassi	407	4.4%	28.0%	.133	.296	.228	.272	.361	.279
Hank Conger	282	7.4%	22.0%	.134	.289	.239	.304	.373	.297
Jake Marisnick	562	4.3%	26.7%	.122	.313	.239	.285	.361	.286
Tyler Heineman	343	5.5%	14.3%	.090	.262	.230	.293	.320	.275
Ronnie Torreyes	529	4.2%	7.4%	.079	.283	.267	.308	.346	.283
Matt Dominguez	606	5.3%	18.2%	.135	.266	.239	.283	.374	.288
Gregorio Petit	478	4.4%	19.0%	.105	.283	.240	.278	.345	.275
Marwin Gonzalez	361	5.0%	16.1%	.102	.290	.251	.293	.353	.283
Jonathan Villar	527	8.0%	29.8%	.121	.307	.221	.288	.342	.282
Carlos Corporan	231	6.1%	24.7%	.124	.277	.225	.287	.349	.282
Jon Singleton	523	13.2%	32.5%	.198	.291	.218	.321	.416	.324
Colin Moran	552	5.4%	21.4%	.106	.305	.251	.290	.357	.285
Joe Sclafani	417	7.4%	16.3%	.074	.290	.245	.306	.319	.281
Brett Phillips	463	6.3%	22.2%	.154	.288	.240	.291	.394	.291
Andrew Aplin	523	9.4%	16.6%	.082	.277	.236	.308	.318	.280
Dan Johnson	492	11.8%	19.7%	.162	.247	.224	.319	.386	.312
L.J. Hoes	480	8.1%	19.2%	.088	.310	.254	.318	.342	.296
Alex Presley	466	6.4%	19.5%	.128	.296	.251	.302	.379	.301
Nolan Fontana	374	14.7%	29.7%	.088	.289	.194	.318	.282	.275
Rio Ruiz	581	8.3%	23.1%	.111	.283	.227	.289	.338	.279
Domingo Santana	520	8.5%	35.2%	.162	.321	.222	.294	.384	.301
Robbie Grossman	604	11.3%	26.8%	.105	.321	.235	.326	.340	.297
Preston Tucker	525	6.9%	22.3%	.136	.292	.244	.297	.380	.298
Jesus Guzman	295	9.2%	25.8%	.137	.286	.223	.299	.360	.294
Teoscar Hernandez	573	5.8%	33.0%	.128	.306	.214	.264	.342	.266
Jiovanni Mier	400	8.0%	27.8%	.068	.276	.200	.270	.268	.241
Jonathan Meyer	548	4.9%	25.4%	.082	.289	.223	.265	.305	.254
Matt Duffy	567	4.2%	24.7%	.121	.290	.232	.285	.353	.284
Telvin Nash	363	8.3%	52.1%	.151	.315	.163	.243	.314	.250

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Jose Altuve	688	6.1	113	-6	3.6	Harvey Kuenn
George Springer	493	5.9	122	0	2.7	Greg Vaughn
Jason Castro	464	4.6	99	0	2.7	Jake Early
Dexter Fowler	526	5.2	110	-10	1.8	Steve Henderson
Chris Carter	553	5.2	114	0	1.7	Steve Balboni
Jed Lowrie	525	4.5	96	-5	1.6	Brook Jacoby
Tony Kemp	540	4.1	89	0	1.4	Callix Crabbe
Carlos Correa	431	3.9	85	1	1.3	Dickie Thon
Max Stassi	407	3.4	74	2	1.2	Bill Hayes
Hank Conger	282	3.9	87	1	1.2	Steve Torrealba
Jake Marisnick	562	3.8	79	4	1.2	Rusty Tillman
Tyler Heineman	343	3.2	71	2	0.9	Brian Moon
Ronnie Torreyes	529	3.9	82	1	0.9	Placido Polanco
Matt Dominguez	606	3.7	81	0	0.8	Jim Deschaine
Gregorio Petit	478	3.4	72	2	0.7	Keith Johnson
Marwin Gonzalez	361	3.7	79	0	0.7	Bruce Yard
Jonathan Villar	527	3.7	74	-5	0.6	Buddy Biancalana
Carlos Corporan	231	3.5	76	-1	0.5	Nelson Santovenia
Jon Singleton	523	4.5	103	-4	0.5	Calvin Pickering
Colin Moran	552	3.7	79	-1	0.4	Joe Crede
Joe Sclafani	417	3.6	74	0	0.4	Jonathan Herrera
Brett Phillips	463	3.8	89	-4	0.4	Terrence Long
Andrew Aplin	523	3.5	75	-1	0.3	Tommy Gregg
Dan Johnson	492	4.3	95	-1	0.3	Pete O’Brien
L.J. Hoes	480	3.9	84	1	0.2	Trey Beamon
Alex Presley	466	4.1	88	-2	0.1	Bubba Crosby
Nolan Fontana	374	2.8	69	-1	0.1	Micah Schilling
Rio Ruiz	581	3.3	74	-2	0.1	John Hattig
Domingo Santana	520	3.9	87	-2	0.1	Jackson Melian
Robbie Grossman	604	3.8	86	-2	0.0	Dave Brundage
Preston Tucker	525	4.0	87	-2	-0.1	Ivan Cruz
Jesus Guzman	295	3.8	83	0	-0.2	Ryan Radmanovich
Teoscar Hernandez	573	3.1	67	-3	-0.5	Luis Saturria
Jiovanni Mier	400	2.3	50	0	-0.6	Scott Powers
Jonathan Meyer	548	2.8	58	2	-0.6	Tommy Nicholson
Matt Duffy	567	3.5	76	2	-0.8	Graham Conklin
Telvin Nash	363	2.4	54	-1	-1.8	Dan Trumble

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Dallas Keuchel	L	27	28	28	191.7	143	50	16	194	87	81
Collin McHugh	R	28	30	28	162.7	155	53	17	149	72	67
Scott Feldman	R	32	25	25	152.7	102	47	18	162	81	76
Luke Gregerson	R	31	70	0	64.0	61	17	7	60	27	25
Pat Neshek	R	34	56	0	51.3	49	12	6	48	21	20
Brett Oberholtzer	L	25	29	29	171.7	124	36	24	195	98	92
Will Harris	R	30	70	0	67.3	74	26	7	62	30	28
Tony Sipp	L	31	63	0	53.7	63	22	6	45	24	22
Josh Fields	R	29	51	0	53.0	60	19	5	48	24	22
Samuel Deduno	R	31	26	15	99.7	82	54	11	99	57	53
Matt Albers	R	32	35	0	36.3	27	13	3	37	17	16
Jose Veras	R	34	56	0	53.3	57	26	6	48	26	24
Thomas Shirley	L	26	26	10	79.7	60	31	10	86	46	43
Darin Downs	L	30	48	0	49.0	44	22	4	47	25	23
Chad Qualls	R	36	55	0	48.7	38	11	5	52	25	23
Chia-Jen Lo	R	29	23	0	26.3	22	12	3	27	15	14
Jason Stoffel	R	26	55	0	63.0	51	29	6	65	33	31
Kyle Farnsworth	R	39	36	0	29.3	21	12	3	33	17	16
Vincent Velasquez	R	23	23	16	84.7	79	40	13	89	52	49
Kevin Chapman	L	27	63	0	63.0	62	42	6	60	34	32
Michael Feliz	R	22	22	16	87.3	70	36	13	97	56	52
Asher Wojciechowski	R	26	21	20	106.3	70	40	15	122	67	63
Alex White	R	26	24	16	88.3	63	44	12	98	57	53
Jason Garcia	R	22	13	5	47.0	37	28	7	52	32	30
Jake Buchanan	R	25	31	20	129.3	65	36	16	156	81	76
Josh Hader	L	21	25	20	105.3	83	64	14	113	68	64
Luis Cruz	L	24	27	20	114.7	93	44	19	127	74	69
Rhiner Cruz	R	28	51	0	55.3	44	31	8	60	35	33
Mike Foltynewicz	R	23	33	19	110.7	93	58	17	119	73	68
Brad Peacock	R	27	28	24	132.0	115	66	23	142	88	82
Lance McCullers	R	21	25	18	93.3	81	63	16	102	67	63
Kyle Smith	R	22	26	19	112.0	89	44	24	131	81	76
Ross Seaton	R	25	21	17	92.3	48	34	18	117	72	67

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Dallas Keuchel	191.7	819	17.5%	6.1%	.295	3.80	3.92	97	100
Collin McHugh	162.7	690	22.5%	7.7%	.289	3.71	4.02	94	102
Scott Feldman	152.7	667	15.3%	7.0%	.293	4.48	4.70	114	120
Luke Gregerson	64.0	269	22.7%	6.3%	.291	3.52	3.73	90	95
Pat Neshek	51.3	214	22.9%	5.6%	.290	3.51	3.78	89	96
Brett Oberholtzer	171.7	746	16.6%	4.8%	.306	4.82	4.54	123	115
Will Harris	67.3	290	25.5%	9.0%	.306	3.74	3.82	95	97
Tony Sipp	53.7	228	27.6%	9.6%	.289	3.69	3.80	94	97
Josh Fields	53.0	226	26.5%	8.4%	.307	3.74	3.45	95	88
Samuel Deduno	99.7	452	18.1%	11.9%	.297	4.79	5.12	122	130
Matt Albers	36.3	159	17.0%	8.2%	.296	3.96	4.04	101	103
Jose Veras	53.3	234	24.4%	11.1%	.296	4.05	4.37	103	111
Thomas Shirley	79.7	356	16.8%	8.7%	.303	4.86	4.91	124	125
Darin Downs	49.0	216	20.4%	10.2%	.301	4.22	4.14	107	105
Chad Qualls	48.7	209	18.2%	5.3%	.305	4.25	3.79	108	97
Chia-Jen Lo	26.3	118	18.7%	10.2%	.300	4.78	4.76	122	121
Jason Stoffel	63.0	283	18.0%	10.2%	.306	4.43	4.42	113	112
Kyle Farnsworth	29.3	133	15.8%	9.0%	.310	4.91	4.49	125	114
Vincent Velasquez	84.7	383	20.6%	10.4%	.310	5.21	5.19	133	132
Kevin Chapman	63.0	291	21.3%	14.4%	.303	4.57	4.73	116	120
Michael Feliz	87.3	395	17.7%	9.1%	.310	5.36	5.21	136	132
Asher Wojciechowski	106.3	481	14.6%	8.3%	.307	5.33	5.28	136	134
Alex White	88.3	407	15.5%	10.8%	.304	5.40	5.33	137	136
Jason Garcia	47.0	221	16.7%	12.7%	.308	5.74	5.81	146	148
Jake Buchanan	129.3	580	11.2%	6.2%	.307	5.29	5.02	135	128
Josh Hader	105.3	493	16.8%	13.0%	.305	5.47	5.61	139	143
Luis Cruz	114.7	515	18.1%	8.5%	.306	5.42	5.25	138	134
Rhiner Cruz	55.3	257	17.1%	12.1%	.304	5.37	5.49	137	140
Mike Foltynewicz	110.7	509	18.3%	11.4%	.304	5.53	5.49	141	140
Brad Peacock	132.0	604	19.0%	10.9%	.302	5.59	5.56	142	141
Lance McCullers	93.3	445	18.2%	14.2%	.308	6.07	6.18	154	157
Kyle Smith	112.0	511	17.4%	8.6%	.308	6.11	6.03	155	153
Ross Seaton	92.3	428	11.2%	7.9%	.309	6.53	6.23	166	158

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Dallas Keuchel	191.7	6.71	2.35	0.75	103	3.0	Greg Hibbard
Collin McHugh	162.7	8.57	2.93	0.94	106	2.7	Vicente Padilla
Scott Feldman	152.7	6.01	2.77	1.06	87	1.0	Josh Fogg
Luke Gregerson	64.0	8.58	2.39	0.98	111	0.5	Joel Peralta
Pat Neshek	51.3	8.60	2.11	1.05	112	0.4	Dave Pavlas
Brett Oberholtzer	171.7	6.50	1.89	1.26	81	0.4	Blaine Beatty
Will Harris	67.3	9.90	3.48	0.94	105	0.4	Frank LaCorte
Tony Sipp	53.7	10.56	3.69	1.01	106	0.3	Armando Almanza
Josh Fields	53.0	10.19	3.23	0.85	105	0.3	Jason Bulger
Samuel Deduno	99.7	7.40	4.87	0.99	82	0.2	Bill Zuber
Matt Albers	36.3	6.69	3.22	0.74	99	0.1	Hal White
Jose Veras	53.3	9.62	4.39	1.01	97	0.1	Rich DeLucia
Thomas Shirley	79.7	6.78	3.50	1.13	81	0.0	Doug Johns
Darin Downs	49.0	8.08	4.04	0.73	93	0.0	Mike Kinnunen
Chad Qualls	48.7	7.02	2.03	0.92	92	-0.1	Dave Pavlas
Chia-Jen Lo	26.3	7.53	4.11	1.03	82	-0.2	Gary Neibauer
Jason Stoffel	63.0	7.29	4.14	0.86	88	-0.2	Marc Pisciotta
Kyle Farnsworth	29.3	6.45	3.69	0.92	80	-0.3	Jim Turner
Vincent Velasquez	84.7	8.39	4.25	1.38	75	-0.3	Travis Buckley
Kevin Chapman	63.0	8.86	6.00	0.86	86	-0.3	Matt Whisenant
Michael Feliz	87.3	7.22	3.71	1.34	73	-0.5	David Fitzgerald
Asher Wojciechowski	106.3	5.93	3.39	1.27	73	-0.5	Tony Costa
Alex White	88.3	6.42	4.48	1.22	73	-0.5	Rob Purvis
Jason Garcia	47.0	7.09	5.36	1.34	68	-0.6	Mark Hampton
Jake Buchanan	129.3	4.52	2.51	1.11	74	-0.6	Chuck Porter
Josh Hader	105.3	7.09	5.47	1.20	72	-0.7	Sebern Wright
Luis Cruz	114.7	7.30	3.45	1.49	72	-0.7	Rich Croushore
Rhiner Cruz	55.3	7.16	5.05	1.30	73	-0.9	Mark Ohlms
Mike Foltynewicz	110.7	7.56	4.72	1.38	71	-0.9	Ken Ryan
Brad Peacock	132.0	7.84	4.50	1.57	70	-1.0	Ray Chadwick
Lance McCullers	93.3	7.81	6.08	1.54	65	-1.4	Kevin Uhrhan
Kyle Smith	112.0	7.15	3.54	1.93	64	-1.7	Jeff Darwin
Ross Seaton	92.3	4.68	3.32	1.76	60	-1.9	Brian Ahern

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.