2015 ZiPS Projections – Kansas City Royals

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Kansas City Royals. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago AL / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Colorado / Detroit / Houston / Los Angeles AL / Los Angeles NL / Miami / Milwaukee / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Oakland / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / San Francisco / St. Louis / Seattle / Tampa Bay / Texas / Toronto / Washington.

Batters
A trait common among basically all the best baseball clubs is that they possess an ability to avoid the awful — which is to say, they exhibit enough either in the way of health or depth or general competence throughout their major-league roster to avoid allocating plate appearances to players who are something worse than average.

Last year’s ZiPS projections for Kansas City suggested that they were particularly well suited to avoiding the awful. While none of their starting batter-types received a forecast in excess of four wins, none of them received a projection below two wins, either. The club was built not to dominate the league, but to remain relevant over the course of a full season.

Per ZiPS, the 2015 iteration of the Royals has more weaknesses than that 2014 edition. No fewer than three of their starting batters — Omar Infante (558 PA, 1.0 WAR), Kendrys Morales (467 PA, 0.5 WAR), and Alex Rios (571 PA, 1.2 WAR) — feature win projections more commonly associated with strong bench players than actual major-league starters.

Pitchers
Last year’s projections called for four Kansas City pitchers either to meet or cross the 1.5-WAR threshold. This year, seven pitchers — which is to say, three more than last season — feature marks that meet that criteria. Notably, the pitching staff is largely the same. James Shields has obviously departed, but Danny Duffy (109.0 PA, 2.0 WAR). Jeremy Guthrie (166.0 IP, 1.5 WAR), and Jason Vargas (170.0 IP, 1.6 WAR) remain — all with more promising forecasts than last year.

Unsurprising to anyone who followed the Royals’ 2014 postseason, the club’s bullpen for 2015 — composed of largely the same principal characters — is forecast by ZiPS to be quite a strong one. A haphazard survey of all 30 team projections, in fact, reveals that no club’s top-five relievers matches the Royals’ rounded five-win mark. Right-hander Luke Hochevar (32.2 IP, 0.4 WAR), who returns this spring from a Tommy John procedure, ought only to increase the effectiveness of an already effective bullpen.

Bench/Prospects
Omitted from the depth chart below but likely to receive a non-negligible amount of playing time is Jarrod Dyson (343 PA, 1.6 WAR). Infielder Christian Colon (509 PA, 1.0 WAR), meanwhile, receives the top projection among rookie-eligible batters. There’s cause for optimism regarding Kris Medlen’s future (140.2 IP, 2.3 WAR), although he’s unlikely to return until the second half, at the earliest. Three pitching prospects — Christian Binford (134.0 IP, 0.8 WAR), Brian Flynn (148.1 IP, 0.8 WAR), and Kyle Zimmer (72.0 IP, 0.7 WAR) — are all forecast to approach a win or its equivalent in the minors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Royals, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Alex Gordon	L	31	LF	663	88	159	34	3	19	74	12	4
Salvador Perez	R	25	C	560	56	147	27	2	15	71	0	0
Lorenzo Cain	R	29	CF	530	58	137	28	4	6	56	22	5
Eric Hosmer	L	25	1B	644	76	172	33	2	17	75	10	3
Alcides Escobar	R	28	SS	617	69	156	28	5	4	51	27	4
Mike Moustakas	L	26	3B	567	56	126	29	1	17	61	3	2
Jarrod Dyson	L	30	CF	343	43	77	8	5	1	23	35	6
Alex Rios	R	34	RF	571	68	152	32	6	10	64	21	7
Omar Infante	R	33	2B	558	53	140	23	4	7	55	8	3
Christian Colon	R	26	2B	509	56	122	17	1	7	42	13	5
Josh Willingham	R	36	LF	431	51	82	17	1	18	55	2	0
Francisco Pena	R	25	C	355	38	76	15	1	7	39	1	2
Cameron Gallagher	R	22	C	347	34	71	14	0	4	32	1	0
Erik Kratz	R	35	C	247	25	53	12	0	7	30	0	0
Kendrys Morales	B	32	DH	467	47	112	25	0	14	62	0	0
Reymond Fuentes	L	24	CF	478	58	103	19	4	5	42	24	6
Ryan Roberts	R	34	2B	366	38	78	15	1	8	34	5	4
Ryan Jackson	R	27	SS	343	29	73	13	1	3	27	3	0
Orlando Calixte	R	23	SS	495	48	106	20	2	9	39	10	8
Moises Sierra	R	26	RF	429	49	100	18	3	10	36	7	4
Cheslor Cuthbert	R	22	3B	536	53	121	27	2	9	50	8	5
Paulo Orlando	R	29	CF	475	45	108	15	4	4	37	16	6
Hunter Dozier	R	23	3B	484	51	99	24	0	8	43	6	5
Lane Adams	R	25	CF	541	57	110	23	3	9	43	21	6
Mike Bianucci	R	29	RF	365	38	82	17	1	14	42	2	1
Raul Mondesi Jr.	B	19	SS	526	53	113	13	5	11	42	16	8
Mitch Maier	L	33	LF	133	14	26	4	1	2	10	1	0
Gabriel Noriega	R	24	3B	453	42	105	18	2	2	33	4	3
Raul Ibanez	L	41	LF	327	35	67	13	3	13	44	2	1
Jayson Nix	R	32	2B	301	28	60	13	1	4	24	7	3
Alex Liddi	R	26	3B	463	53	92	18	2	13	48	6	4
Brian Bocock	R	30	3B	337	28	68	13	1	2	22	5	3
Parker Morin	L	23	C	295	24	57	10	1	2	19	1	2
Whit Merrifield	R	26	LF	515	52	114	25	3	5	40	13	8
Bubba Starling	R	22	CF	545	54	106	20	3	10	47	15	3
Edinson Rincon	R	24	3B	313	29	70	15	0	4	25	1	5
J.C. Boscan	R	35	C	200	15	35	7	0	1	11	1	0
Brett Eibner	R	26	CF	425	41	70	15	3	9	32	5	3
Terrance Gore	R	24	LF	396	39	72	6	1	0	16	37	7
Max Ramirez	R	30	1B	339	32	69	10	1	6	28	0	0
Jorge Bonifacio	R	22	RF	520	48	110	21	3	5	42	6	4
Matt Fields	B	29	1B	458	47	85	17	1	16	47	2	2

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Alex Gordon	663	9.2%	20.4%	.165	.318	.269	.344	.434	.341
Salvador Perez	560	3.9%	12.7%	.143	.294	.277	.307	.420	.317
Lorenzo Cain	530	5.1%	20.6%	.110	.342	.277	.319	.387	.315
Eric Hosmer	644	7.6%	15.7%	.150	.326	.293	.346	.443	.344
Alcides Escobar	617	3.6%	13.6%	.086	.308	.270	.301	.356	.293
Mike Moustakas	567	6.3%	17.1%	.157	.265	.242	.295	.399	.304
Jarrod Dyson	343	7.6%	17.5%	.068	.305	.250	.309	.318	.290
Alex Rios	571	4.4%	15.6%	.138	.319	.281	.313	.419	.321
Omar Infante	558	4.7%	10.6%	.100	.289	.269	.302	.369	.293
Christian Colon	509	5.7%	10.0%	.087	.281	.263	.310	.350	.292
Josh Willingham	431	11.8%	27.1%	.200	.274	.225	.334	.425	.335
Francisco Pena	355	4.2%	19.4%	.114	.266	.229	.266	.343	.266
Cameron Gallagher	347	6.3%	12.1%	.082	.245	.225	.276	.307	.261
Erik Kratz	247	6.1%	20.2%	.146	.266	.233	.283	.379	.288
Kendrys Morales	467	6.6%	17.6%	.156	.292	.261	.315	.417	.320
Reymond Fuentes	478	7.5%	25.9%	.098	.326	.241	.306	.339	.290
Ryan Roberts	366	7.7%	20.2%	.123	.277	.234	.294	.357	.287
Ryan Jackson	343	7.3%	21.0%	.078	.295	.236	.293	.314	.270
Orlando Calixte	495	5.1%	26.1%	.111	.298	.230	.269	.341	.267
Moises Sierra	429	5.4%	24.2%	.136	.314	.251	.298	.387	.302
Cheslor Cuthbert	536	6.2%	19.0%	.116	.287	.243	.290	.359	.287
Paulo Orlando	475	4.4%	16.8%	.079	.287	.244	.281	.323	.267
Hunter Dozier	484	7.9%	23.8%	.109	.286	.226	.293	.335	.281
Lane Adams	541	6.5%	25.7%	.113	.287	.221	.278	.334	.278
Mike Bianucci	365	4.7%	24.9%	.179	.285	.240	.282	.419	.308
Raul Mondesi Jr.	526	3.8%	27.6%	.113	.300	.228	.261	.341	.264
Mitch Maier	133	9.8%	29.3%	.101	.304	.218	.293	.319	.279
Gabriel Noriega	453	2.6%	22.7%	.066	.316	.245	.267	.311	.252
Raul Ibanez	327	9.5%	22.3%	.197	.257	.227	.300	.424	.320
Jayson Nix	301	6.3%	23.9%	.099	.283	.221	.279	.320	.268
Alex Liddi	463	5.8%	35.2%	.143	.310	.214	.265	.357	.273
Brian Bocock	337	5.3%	20.2%	.067	.272	.219	.262	.286	.243
Parker Morin	295	4.7%	27.5%	.066	.285	.208	.250	.274	.232
Whit Merrifield	515	5.4%	19.2%	.097	.291	.240	.285	.337	.274
Bubba Starling	545	6.2%	29.7%	.113	.290	.212	.272	.325	.272
Edinson Rincon	313	4.8%	21.4%	.092	.295	.238	.277	.330	.264
J.C. Boscan	200	5.0%	27.5%	.054	.260	.187	.236	.241	.215
Brett Eibner	425	8.2%	37.6%	.124	.281	.182	.255	.306	.254
Terrance Gore	396	6.3%	26.5%	.022	.287	.203	.270	.225	.240
Max Ramirez	339	7.7%	24.8%	.097	.284	.223	.283	.320	.272
Jorge Bonifacio	520	6.2%	24.2%	.087	.297	.229	.279	.316	.267
Matt Fields	458	6.3%	37.1%	.159	.291	.201	.262	.360	.277

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Alex Gordon	663	5.6	113	16	4.3	Bobby Higginson
Salvador Perez	560	4.8	98	6	3.6	Sandy Alomar
Lorenzo Cain	530	4.9	94	10	2.9	Willie McGee
Eric Hosmer	644	5.9	116	-1	2.0	Hal Morris
Alcides Escobar	617	4.3	81	0	1.8	Cristian Guzman
Mike Moustakas	567	4.2	89	3	1.7	Gary Scott
Jarrod Dyson	343	4.3	74	8	1.6	Dave Roberts
Alex Rios	571	5.1	100	0	1.2	Butch Davis
Omar Infante	558	4.2	84	1	1.0	Manny Trillo
Christian Colon	509	4.1	82	1	1.0	Mark Loretta
Josh Willingham	431	5.0	108	-6	0.8	Jay Buhner
Francisco Pena	355	3.1	67	4	0.8	Jeff Winchester
Cameron Gallagher	347	3.0	61	4	0.7	Drew McMillan
Erik Kratz	247	3.8	81	-1	0.6	Joe Oliver
Kendrys Morales	467	4.8	100	0	0.5	Dan Rohrmeier
Reymond Fuentes	478	4.0	78	-4	0.4	Herm Winningham
Ryan Roberts	366	3.6	79	0	0.4	Webster Garrison
Ryan Jackson	343	3.4	68	1	0.3	Edwin Maysonet
Orlando Calixte	495	3.1	67	1	0.2	Tim Olson
Moises Sierra	429	4.1	87	0	0.2	Chris Aguila
Cheslor Cuthbert	536	3.7	78	-3	0.2	Terry Jorgensen
Paulo Orlando	475	3.3	66	2	0.1	Mike Rodriguez
Hunter Dozier	484	3.3	73	-3	-0.1	Juan Espinal
Lane Adams	541	3.4	68	-2	-0.1	Chris Sheff
Mike Bianucci	365	4.2	90	-4	-0.2	Chris Widger
Raul Mondesi Jr.	526	3.1	65	-2	-0.2	Drew Meyer
Mitch Maier	133	3.3	69	0	-0.2	Mike Neill
Gabriel Noriega	453	2.9	59	5	-0.2	Eddie Zosky
Raul Ibanez	327	4.4	97	-7	-0.2	Steve Finley
Jayson Nix	301	3.1	65	-2	-0.4	Trace Coquillette
Alex Liddi	463	3.2	70	-3	-0.4	Blake Whealy
Brian Bocock	337	2.6	51	4	-0.4	Chris Petersen
Parker Morin	295	2.2	45	1	-0.4	Andres Pagan
Whit Merrifield	515	3.3	71	3	-0.6	Bobby Malek
Bubba Starling	545	3.2	64	-6	-0.8	Junior Brignac
Edinson Rincon	313	2.9	67	-4	-0.8	Matt Morgan
J.C. Boscan	200	1.9	32	-2	-0.9	Frank Charles
Brett Eibner	425	2.6	54	-3	-1.1	Jim Betzsold
Terrance Gore	396	2.7	39	3	-1.3	Ramon Gomez
Max Ramirez	339	3.2	66	-2	-1.3	Juan Richardson
Jorge Bonifacio	520	3.0	64	0	-1.4	Jesus Cota
Matt Fields	458	3.1	70	-4	-1.6	Paul Felix

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Yordano Ventura	R	24	30	29	179.3	157	65	17	166	76	71
Kris Medlen	R	29	23	22	140.7	101	34	15	147	64	60
Danny Duffy	L	26	22	19	109.0	90	47	10	97	46	43
Greg Holland	R	29	65	0	63.0	91	22	4	43	16	15
Jason Vargas	L	32	27	27	170.0	108	41	26	176	89	83
Jeremy Guthrie	R	36	27	26	166.0	94	43	22	179	87	81
Wade Davis	R	29	65	0	69.7	87	26	5	53	21	20
Kelvin Herrera	R	25	73	0	75.7	76	25	5	64	27	25
Edinson Volquez	R	31	29	28	163.7	128	71	20	164	89	83
Brian Flynn	L	25	27	27	148.3	97	58	16	162	82	77
Christian Binford	R	22	25	23	134.0	85	30	18	148	74	69
Kyle Zimmer	R	23	16	16	72.0	57	27	9	72	37	35
Jason Frasor	R	37	52	0	41.3	41	17	4	37	17	16
Luke Hochevar	R	31	28	0	32.7	34	10	4	28	13	12
Yohan Pino	R	31	27	19	120.0	85	36	18	127	68	64
Tim Collins	L	25	59	0	62.0	67	29	7	53	28	26
Brandon Finnegan	L	22	41	5	65.3	55	17	9	68	33	31
Louis Coleman	R	29	55	0	70.3	68	31	9	65	34	32
Bruce Chen	L	38	19	10	69.0	47	21	10	75	41	38
Ryan Madson	R	34	8	0	8.7	6	3	1	9	4	4
Andrew Triggs	R	26	40	0	60.7	35	18	6	64	31	29
Joe Paterson	L	29	55	0	47.3	35	19	5	48	25	23
John Lamb	L	24	24	23	119.7	80	50	19	133	74	69
Sean Manaea	L	23	25	25	112.0	92	61	16	118	70	65
Buddy Baumann	L	27	36	5	68.3	47	35	8	71	40	37
Casey Coleman	R	27	40	4	77.3	48	36	8	83	44	41
Jandel Gustave	R	22	19	13	70.3	46	35	9	76	44	41
Sam Selman	L	24	30	20	100.7	71	69	11	103	62	58
Clayton Mortensen	R	30	30	9	72.3	49	33	10	77	44	41
Michael Mariot	R	26	37	4	66.0	45	30	8	70	39	36
Aaron Brooks	R	25	26	25	142.0	73	31	23	169	91	85
Scott Alexander	L	25	45	0	67.0	42	34	7	71	40	37
Miguel Almonte	R	22	24	23	108.0	71	40	19	124	72	67
Andy Ferguson	R	26	25	19	111.0	67	46	20	126	74	69
Chris Dwyer	L	27	27	16	99.0	59	65	15	108	68	64

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Yordano Ventura	179.3	769	20.4%	8.5%	.284	3.56	3.76	90	95
Kris Medlen	140.7	603	16.7%	5.6%	.293	3.84	3.86	97	97
Danny Duffy	109.0	471	19.1%	10.0%	.272	3.55	4.04	89	102
Greg Holland	63.0	254	35.8%	8.7%	.285	2.14	2.01	54	51
Jason Vargas	170.0	727	14.9%	5.6%	.274	4.39	4.60	111	116
Jeremy Guthrie	166.0	720	13.1%	6.0%	.284	4.39	4.66	111	117
Wade Davis	69.7	288	30.2%	9.0%	.286	2.58	2.72	65	69
Kelvin Herrera	75.7	316	24.0%	7.9%	.285	2.97	3.01	75	76
Edinson Volquez	163.7	726	17.6%	9.8%	.289	4.56	4.54	115	114
Brian Flynn	148.3	665	14.6%	8.7%	.300	4.67	4.53	118	114
Christian Binford	134.0	580	14.7%	5.2%	.296	4.63	4.43	117	112
Kyle Zimmer	72.0	315	18.1%	8.6%	.289	4.37	4.46	110	112
Jason Frasor	41.3	178	23.0%	9.6%	.287	3.48	3.56	88	90
Luke Hochevar	32.7	136	25.0%	7.3%	.276	3.31	3.55	83	90
Yohan Pino	120.0	523	16.3%	6.9%	.288	4.80	4.68	121	118
Tim Collins	62.0	268	25.0%	10.8%	.282	3.77	3.79	95	95
Brandon Finnegan	65.3	281	19.6%	6.1%	.301	4.27	4.20	108	106
Louis Coleman	70.3	307	22.2%	10.1%	.286	4.09	4.18	103	105
Bruce Chen	69.0	303	15.5%	6.9%	.291	4.96	4.56	125	115
Ryan Madson	8.7	38	15.7%	7.9%	.285	4.15	3.93	105	99
Andrew Triggs	60.7	264	13.3%	6.8%	.287	4.30	4.25	108	107
Joe Paterson	47.3	209	16.8%	9.1%	.295	4.37	4.35	110	110
John Lamb	119.7	542	14.8%	9.2%	.295	5.19	5.28	131	133
Sean Manaea	112.0	515	17.9%	11.8%	.301	5.22	5.16	132	130
Buddy Baumann	68.3	311	15.1%	11.3%	.290	4.87	4.90	123	123
Casey Coleman	77.3	351	13.7%	10.3%	.294	4.77	4.70	120	118
Jandel Gustave	70.3	322	14.3%	10.9%	.294	5.25	5.14	132	130
Sam Selman	100.7	474	15.0%	14.6%	.290	5.19	5.34	131	135
Clayton Mortensen	72.3	327	15.0%	10.1%	.290	5.10	5.06	128	128
Michael Mariot	66.0	298	15.1%	10.1%	.294	4.91	4.79	124	121
Aaron Brooks	142.0	626	11.7%	5.0%	.298	5.39	5.03	136	127
Scott Alexander	67.0	306	13.7%	11.1%	.292	4.97	4.93	125	124
Miguel Almonte	108.0	488	14.5%	8.2%	.299	5.58	5.38	141	135
Andy Ferguson	111.0	505	13.3%	9.1%	.290	5.59	5.67	141	143
Chris Dwyer	99.0	470	12.6%	13.8%	.286	5.82	6.05	147	153

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Yordano Ventura	179.3	7.88	3.26	0.85	112	3.6	Ken Hill
Kris Medlen	140.7	6.46	2.17	0.96	104	2.3	Mike Morgan
Danny Duffy	109.0	7.43	3.88	0.83	113	2.2	Chris Hammond
Greg Holland	63.0	13.00	3.14	0.57	187	1.7	Bryan Harvey
Jason Vargas	170.0	5.72	2.17	1.38	91	1.6	Scott McGregor
Jeremy Guthrie	166.0	5.10	2.33	1.19	91	1.5	Bill Gullickson
Wade Davis	69.7	11.23	3.36	0.65	155	1.5	Jim Kern
Kelvin Herrera	75.7	9.04	2.97	0.59	134	1.2	Manny Delcarmen
Edinson Volquez	163.7	7.04	3.90	1.10	88	1.1	Jamey Wright
Brian Flynn	148.3	5.89	3.52	0.97	86	0.8	Chris George
Christian Binford	134.0	5.71	2.01	1.21	86	0.8	Bob Tewksbury
Kyle Zimmer	72.0	7.13	3.38	1.13	91	0.7	Mike Birkbeck
Jason Frasor	41.3	8.93	3.70	0.87	115	0.4	Rudy Seanez
Luke Hochevar	32.7	9.36	2.75	1.10	121	0.4	Marvin Freeman
Yohan Pino	120.0	6.38	2.70	1.35	83	0.4	Rob Bell
Tim Collins	62.0	9.73	4.21	1.02	106	0.4	Armando Almanza
Brandon Finnegan	65.3	7.58	2.34	1.24	94	0.3	Ron Flores
Louis Coleman	70.3	8.71	3.97	1.15	98	0.1	Pat Flury
Bruce Chen	69.0	6.13	2.74	1.30	81	0.0	Jeff Fassero
Ryan Madson	8.7	6.21	3.10	1.03	96	0.0	Jim Coates
Andrew Triggs	60.7	5.19	2.67	0.89	93	0.0	Robert Tenenini
Joe Paterson	47.3	6.66	3.62	0.95	91	-0.1	Ken Vining
John Lamb	119.7	6.02	3.76	1.43	77	-0.1	Jeff Hundley
Sean Manaea	112.0	7.39	4.90	1.29	77	-0.2	John Grabow
Buddy Baumann	68.3	6.19	4.61	1.05	82	-0.2	Tom Doyle
Casey Coleman	77.3	5.59	4.19	0.93	84	-0.2	Barry Hertzler
Jandel Gustave	70.3	5.89	4.48	1.15	76	-0.2	Jon Asahina
Sam Selman	100.7	6.35	6.17	0.98	77	-0.2	Sebern Wright
Clayton Mortensen	72.3	6.10	4.11	1.24	78	-0.2	Ken Ray
Michael Mariot	66.0	6.14	4.09	1.09	81	-0.3	Sean Green
Aaron Brooks	142.0	4.63	1.96	1.46	74	-0.5	Josh Towers
Scott Alexander	67.0	5.64	4.57	0.94	80	-0.6	Brian Adams
Miguel Almonte	108.0	5.92	3.33	1.58	72	-0.7	Ricky Rojas
Andy Ferguson	111.0	5.43	3.73	1.62	71	-0.8	David Walters
Chris Dwyer	99.0	5.36	5.91	1.36	69	-1.0	Rafael Roque

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.