2015 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Tampa Bay.

Batters
At five-plus wins Giancarlo Stanton receives the top projection among Marlins players — a figure that will likely represent one of the highest WAR projections among all players to appear in this series. Unsurprising, that, for a player who just produced a six-win season as a 24-year-old.

Perhaps surprising for a player who just produced a six-win season as a 24-year-old is that Stanton’s projection isn’t more optimistic. To that sentiment, Dan Szymborski would likely reply — indeed, has replied before — that star-level players have a “pretty much one-sided risk curve.”

Notable elswhere among Marlins hitters is Christian Yelich’s very encouraging projection of nearly four wins — this, despite possessing slightly below-average (present) power and playing a corner-outfield spot. Complementing those drawbacks with strong plate discipline and considerably above-average defense in that corner, however, Yelich is a candidate to become the National League’s version of Alex Gordon.

Pitchers
Conspicuously omitted from the depth-chart image below — but not from the projections below that — is Jose Fernandez, who’s likely to miss the beginning of the season after having his UCL repaired last May. ZiPS, a computer model, doesn’t know the exact nature of Fernandez’s injury. It appears to know, however, that pitchers who’ve dominated over the course of one season but then only for eight total starts the next — that those pitchers are unlikely to record a full complement of starts in the third season. Fernandez began throwing at the beginning of October.

The rotation sans Fernandez isn’t impressive, but also appears capable of approaching something along the lines of league average, as well. Consider that the median total among starting rotations last year was 11-12 WAR. This group, even without their ace, wouldn’t fare much worse than that, probably.

Bench/Prospects
Part of the reason they wouldn’t fare much worse than that is the surfeit of competent, young pitching prospects who’ll prevent the Marlins from having to utilize any markedly below-replacement arms in the event of injury at the major-league level. Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino, and Jose Urena, for example, have all played full seasons at Double-A or higher and are all projected to produce more than zero wins. Among field players, Austin Barnes — invoked with some frequency during this year’s Fringe Five series — exhibits promise, although one notes that the catcher positional adjustment probably helps his WAR projection considerably, even if he’s just as likely (if not moreso) to play second base in the majors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Giancarlo Stanton	R	25	RF	614	87	144	29	3	37	95	8	4
Christian Yelich	L	23	LF	643	97	159	29	7	13	61	19	6
Marcell Ozuna	R	24	CF	542	68	131	26	5	19	76	5	1
Austin Barnes	R	25	C	542	63	118	21	3	7	49	6	2
J.T. Realmuto	R	24	C	475	54	107	22	4	6	49	10	4
Enrique Hernandez	R	23	2B	552	63	132	25	5	10	54	5	5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	B	30	C	437	49	92	22	1	14	50	1	1
Casey McGehee	R	32	3B	544	50	128	25	1	8	62	2	2
Austin Wates	R	26	CF	405	45	95	14	4	3	33	20	5
Donovan Solano	R	27	2B	437	41	103	17	2	4	40	4	1
Derek Dietrich	L	25	2B	459	61	98	20	5	13	49	3	2
Jordany Valdespin	L	27	2B	376	44	87	13	3	9	40	14	11
Adeiny Hechavarria	R	26	SS	623	57	151	22	9	4	50	8	6
Mark Canha	R	26	LF	522	62	116	25	2	10	54	3	2
Rob Brantly	L	25	C	433	38	99	19	2	4	37	0	1
Zack Cox	L	26	3B	408	41	95	19	2	5	36	2	0
Joe Benson	R	27	RF	436	45	82	17	4	7	37	10	5
Jeff Mathis	R	32	C	235	18	42	10	0	4	22	0	0
Josh Rodriguez	R	30	3B	492	51	102	19	2	6	39	5	4
Garrett Jones	L	34	1B	471	53	104	25	2	16	56	2	1
Justin Bour	L	27	1B	506	56	118	25	0	12	59	2	1
Reid Brignac	L	29	3B	303	27	59	12	2	4	26	2	2
Rafael Furcal	B	37	2B	166	20	36	5	2	1	12	5	1
Jeff Baker	R	34	1B	203	22	48	10	2	4	25	1	0
Matt Angle	L	29	RF	397	42	83	13	3	3	29	11	3
Micah Owings	R	32	LF	80	8	16	4	1	2	9	0	0
Kyle Jensen	R	27	RF	536	60	108	24	1	18	61	2	1
Brady Shoemaker	R	28	LF	530	58	111	24	1	9	52	2	2
Reed Johnson	R	38	LF	165	19	35	10	0	2	18	0	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	BA	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton	614	12.7%	27.7%	.278	.332	.274	.373	.552	.389
Christian Yelich	643	10.3%	22.1%	.144	.350	.279	.356	.423	.346
Marcell Ozuna	542	6.3%	26.2%	.185	.325	.260	.308	.445	.332
Austin Barnes	542	8.1%	16.4%	.099	.283	.243	.312	.342	.294
J.T. Realmuto	475	6.3%	19.4%	.110	.294	.244	.295	.354	.289
Enrique Hernandez	552	6.3%	12.1%	.129	.282	.260	.311	.389	.306
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	437	9.8%	30.4%	.169	.317	.237	.311	.406	.313
Casey McGehee	544	8.8%	18.2%	.104	.309	.262	.325	.366	.306
Austin Wates	405	7.4%	17.0%	.085	.313	.260	.324	.345	.303
Donovan Solano	437	5.5%	17.4%	.083	.307	.258	.306	.341	.286
Derek Dietrich	459	5.4%	24.2%	.166	.290	.236	.302	.402	.310
Jordany Valdespin	376	7.2%	16.0%	.135	.287	.256	.315	.391	.305
Adeiny Hechavarria	623	5.0%	16.7%	.089	.308	.260	.296	.349	.280
Mark Canha	522	8.2%	23.8%	.127	.315	.250	.321	.377	.311
Rob Brantly	433	4.8%	16.4%	.086	.284	.244	.282	.330	.270
Zack Cox	408	6.4%	22.3%	.101	.319	.253	.305	.354	.292
Joe Benson	436	7.6%	29.4%	.118	.288	.209	.280	.327	.272
Jeff Mathis	235	6.8%	31.1%	.104	.279	.198	.257	.302	.241
Josh Rodriguez	492	7.5%	24.4%	.092	.296	.229	.290	.321	.272
Garrett Jones	471	7.9%	22.5%	.180	.283	.242	.301	.422	.316
Justin Bour	506	7.1%	21.3%	.132	.305	.254	.308	.386	.301
Reid Brignac	303	7.3%	23.8%	.103	.275	.215	.274	.318	.259
Rafael Furcal	166	6.6%	14.5%	.079	.273	.235	.291	.314	.275
Jeff Baker	203	5.9%	23.6%	.139	.319	.255	.300	.394	.304
Matt Angle	397	7.1%	23.4%	.078	.302	.231	.293	.309	.271
Micah Owings	80	3.8%	42.5%	.157	.350	.211	.250	.368	.273
Kyle Jensen	536	7.5%	32.8%	.164	.304	.222	.287	.386	.299
Brady Shoemaker	530	8.1%	25.7%	.111	.305	.234	.304	.345	.292
Reed Johnson	165	1.8%	20.0%	.106	.280	.232	.276	.338	.269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton	614	7.7	151	4	5.4	Danny Tartabull
Christian Yelich	643	5.8	113	10	3.8	Junior Felix
Marcell Ozuna	542	5.1	104	-2	2.3	Rob Ducey
Austin Barnes	542	3.9	80	0	1.9	Gregg Zaun
J.T. Realmuto	475	3.8	78	2	1.6	Brad Ausmus
Enrique Hernandez	552	4.3	91	2	1.6	Pete Rose Jr.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia	437	4.4	96	-6	1.5	Tom Wilson
Casey McGehee	544	4.3	90	-1	1.3	Brook Jacoby
Austin Wates	405	4.4	85	-2	0.8	Jamal Strong
Donovan Solano	437	3.9	78	3	0.8	Juan Melo
Derek Dietrich	459	4.3	92	-5	0.8	Luke Hughes
Jordany Valdespin	376	4.2	93	-3	0.7	Jose Ortiz
Adeiny Hechavarria	623	3.7	77	-2	0.6	Royce Clayton
Mark Canha	522	4.3	91	0	0.6	Jeremy Slayden
Rob Brantly	433	3.3	68	1	0.6	Jorge Fabregas
Zack Cox	408	4.0	81	-3	0.3	Jeff Moronko
Joe Benson	436	3.1	67	10	0.2	Juan Camilo
Jeff Mathis	235	2.6	53	2	0.0	George Mitterwald
Josh Rodriguez	492	3.2	68	1	0.0	Adam Morrissey
Garrett Jones	471	4.5	97	-3	0.0	Dan Rohrmeier
Justin Bour	506	4.3	90	0	-0.2	Danny Lewis
Reid Brignac	303	2.9	62	1	-0.2	Keith Johns
Rafael Furcal	166	3.4	67	-2	-0.2	Miguel Cairo
Jeff Baker	203	4.4	89	-2	-0.2	Larry Herndon
Matt Angle	397	3.3	66	5	-0.2	Kevin Koslofski
Micah Owings	80	3.2	68	-1	-0.3	Darrell Whitmore
Kyle Jensen	536	3.9	83	-4	-0.4	John Sellick
Brady Shoemaker	530	3.7	79	-2	-0.4	Thomas Hubbard
Reed Johnson	165	3.1	68	-2	-0.6	Brian Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Jose Fernandez	R	22	19	19	113.0	116	43	7	90	39	36
Henderson Alvarez	R	25	27	27	165.7	94	38	13	174	75	70
Jarred Cosart	R	25	27	26	148.0	95	66	9	143	68	64
Andrew Heaney	L	24	29	27	155.0	129	49	16	153	73	68
Nathan Eovaldi	R	25	28	28	161.3	116	47	13	168	77	72
Tom Koehler	R	29	30	27	159.3	120	67	16	158	80	75
Steve Cishek	R	29	66	0	65.0	76	23	4	53	21	20
Domingo German	R	22	24	24	123.3	105	72	8	121	62	58
Justin Nicolino	L	23	27	27	148.3	73	30	14	166	77	72
Anthony DeSclafani	R	25	30	24	126.3	93	36	13	134	64	60
Brian Flynn	L	25	27	27	148.7	98	57	13	161	79	74
Jose Urena	R	23	26	25	146.7	98	34	18	160	78	73
A.J. Ramos	R	28	68	0	69.0	76	40	4	54	27	25
Adam Conley	L	25	20	19	97.7	69	42	8	100	50	47
Chris Hatcher	R	30	60	0	70.3	71	20	6	64	28	26
Brad Hand	L	25	30	21	122.0	93	56	14	121	64	60
Mike Dunn	L	30	71	0	59.3	65	26	4	51	24	22
Sam Dyson	R	27	45	0	67.7	53	26	4	65	28	26
Carter Capps	R	24	42	0	52.7	57	19	5	49	22	21
Dan Jennings	L	28	62	0	61.3	53	28	4	59	27	25
Greg Nappo	L	26	40	0	52.3	42	14	5	51	22	21
Kevin Slowey	R	31	15	7	55.3	39	14	6	61	29	27
Elih Villanueva	R	28	23	19	104.0	66	40	12	112	58	54
Matt Ramsey	R	25	42	0	56.0	56	31	5	50	26	24
Micah Owings	R	32	5	1	9.0	8	3	1	9	4	4
Brad Penny	R	37	18	6	45.0	27	16	4	49	25	23
Bryan Morris	R	28	58	0	69.3	52	27	7	68	33	31
Arquimedes Caminero	R	28	47	0	61.7	60	29	6	58	30	28
Grant Dayton	L	27	42	0	61.7	57	25	7	59	30	28
Nick Wittgren	R	24	54	0	63.7	50	18	6	65	31	29
Aaron Crow	R	28	67	0	58.3	48	23	6	56	28	26
Kevin Gregg	R	37	33	0	32.7	28	15	3	32	17	16
Bryan Evans	R	28	29	16	98.0	69	42	14	106	59	55
Ryan Reid	R	30	46	0	66.3	49	33	6	68	35	33
Ryan Chaffee	R	27	49	0	59.0	52	40	5	56	33	31

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Jose Fernandez	113.0	472	24.6%	9.1%	.275	2.87	3.15	76	83
Henderson Alvarez	165.7	709	13.3%	5.4%	.289	3.80	3.89	100	103
Jarred Cosart	148.0	653	14.5%	10.1%	.280	3.89	4.15	103	110
Andrew Heaney	155.0	667	19.3%	7.3%	.296	3.95	4.05	104	107
Nathan Eovaldi	161.3	699	16.6%	6.7%	.299	4.02	3.75	106	99
Tom Koehler	159.3	703	17.1%	9.5%	.288	4.24	4.40	112	116
Steve Cishek	65.0	271	28.0%	8.5%	.295	2.77	2.66	73	70
Domingo German	123.3	563	18.7%	12.8%	.303	4.23	4.24	112	112
Justin Nicolino	148.3	641	11.4%	4.7%	.295	4.37	4.24	115	112
Anthony DeSclafani	126.3	549	16.9%	6.6%	.303	4.27	4.14	113	109
Brian Flynn	148.7	664	14.8%	8.6%	.303	4.48	4.34	118	115
Jose Urena	146.7	634	15.5%	5.4%	.298	4.48	4.32	118	114
A.J. Ramos	69.0	301	25.2%	13.3%	.281	3.26	3.47	86	92
Adam Conley	97.7	435	15.9%	9.7%	.297	4.33	4.35	114	115
Chris Hatcher	70.3	295	24.1%	6.8%	.296	3.33	3.17	88	84
Brad Hand	122.0	543	17.1%	10.3%	.285	4.43	4.62	117	122
Mike Dunn	59.3	255	25.5%	10.2%	.298	3.34	3.18	88	84
Sam Dyson	67.7	294	18.0%	8.8%	.295	3.46	3.58	91	95
Carter Capps	52.7	226	25.2%	8.4%	.310	3.59	3.44	95	91
Dan Jennings	61.3	271	19.6%	10.3%	.299	3.67	3.72	97	98
Greg Nappo	52.3	222	18.9%	6.3%	.291	3.61	3.78	95	100
Kevin Slowey	55.3	241	16.2%	5.8%	.307	4.39	4.15	116	110
Elih Villanueva	104.0	464	14.2%	8.6%	.294	4.67	4.76	123	126
Matt Ramsey	56.0	249	22.5%	12.4%	.294	3.86	4.21	102	111
Micah Owings	9.0	39	20.5%	7.7%	.308	4.00	4.23	106	112
Brad Penny	45.0	200	13.5%	8.0%	.298	4.60	4.32	121	114
Bryan Morris	69.3	303	17.2%	8.9%	.287	4.02	4.21	106	111
Arquimedes Caminero	61.7	272	22.1%	10.7%	.299	4.09	4.01	108	106
Grant Dayton	61.7	269	21.2%	9.3%	.295	4.09	4.17	108	110
Nick Wittgren	63.7	274	18.2%	6.6%	.299	4.10	3.73	108	98
Aaron Crow	58.3	254	18.9%	9.1%	.284	4.01	4.05	106	107
Kevin Gregg	32.7	145	19.3%	10.3%	.296	4.41	4.08	116	108
Bryan Evans	98.0	442	15.6%	9.5%	.296	5.05	5.12	133	135
Ryan Reid	66.3	300	16.3%	11.0%	.300	4.48	4.55	118	120
Ryan Chaffee	59.0	273	19.0%	14.7%	.297	4.73	4.70	125	124

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Jose Fernandez	113.0	9.24	3.42	0.56	133	3.0	Kerry Wood
Henderson Alvarez	165.7	5.11	2.06	0.71	101	2.3	Rick Wise
Jarred Cosart	148.0	5.78	4.01	0.55	98	1.9	Blue Moon Odom
Andrew Heaney	155.0	7.49	2.85	0.93	97	1.9	Bobby Ojeda
Nathan Eovaldi	161.3	6.47	2.62	0.73	95	1.8	Brian Moehler
Tom Koehler	159.3	6.78	3.79	0.90	90	1.3	Jamey Wright
Steve Cishek	65.0	10.52	3.18	0.55	138	1.1	Felix Rodriguez
Domingo German	123.3	7.66	5.26	0.58	90	1.0	Bill Mooneyham
Justin Nicolino	148.3	4.43	1.82	0.85	88	1.0	Bobby Livingston
Anthony DeSclafani	126.3	6.63	2.57	0.93	90	1.0	Chien-Ming Wang
Brian Flynn	148.7	5.93	3.45	0.79	85	0.8	Chris George
Jose Urena	146.7	6.01	2.09	1.10	85	0.8	Nicholas Ungs
A.J. Ramos	69.0	9.91	5.22	0.52	117	0.7	Doug Bochtler
Adam Conley	97.7	6.36	3.87	0.74	88	0.7	Derek Thompson
Chris Hatcher	70.3	9.09	2.56	0.77	115	0.7	Joe Boever
Brad Hand	122.0	6.86	4.13	1.03	86	0.6	Bill Pulsipher
Mike Dunn	59.3	9.87	3.95	0.61	115	0.6	Jack Taschner
Sam Dyson	67.7	7.05	3.46	0.53	111	0.5	Gabriel Dehoyos
Carter Capps	52.7	9.73	3.24	0.85	107	0.3	Bob Devlin
Dan Jennings	61.3	7.78	4.11	0.59	104	0.3	Matt Dunbar
Greg Nappo	52.3	7.23	2.41	0.86	106	0.3	Dana Allison
Kevin Slowey	55.3	6.35	2.28	0.98	87	0.3	Sam Arrington
Elih Villanueva	104.0	5.71	3.46	1.04	82	0.3	John Webb
Matt Ramsey	56.0	9.00	4.98	0.80	99	0.1	Bob Gibson
Micah Owings	9.0	8.00	3.00	1.00	96	0.1	Van Mungo
Brad Penny	45.0	5.40	3.20	0.80	83	0.0	Terry Clark
Bryan Morris	69.3	6.75	3.51	0.91	95	0.0	Steve Mintz
Arquimedes Caminero	61.7	8.75	4.23	0.88	94	0.0	Brian Mallette
Grant Dayton	61.7	8.31	3.65	1.02	94	0.0	Jesus Pena
Nick Wittgren	63.7	7.06	2.54	0.85	93	0.0	Josh Stevens
Aaron Crow	58.3	7.41	3.55	0.93	95	0.0	Tom Bolton
Kevin Gregg	32.7	7.71	4.13	0.83	87	-0.1	Ben Weber
Bryan Evans	98.0	6.34	3.86	1.29	76	-0.3	Eddie Candelario
Ryan Reid	66.3	6.65	4.48	0.81	85	-0.4	Marty McLeary
Ryan Chaffee	59.0	7.93	6.10	0.76	81	-0.5	Tomas Santiago

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.