2015 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Miami Marlins. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Tampa Bay.

Batters
At five-plus wins Giancarlo Stanton receives the top projection among Marlins players — a figure that will likely represent one of the highest WAR projections among all players to appear in this series. Unsurprising, that, for a player who just produced a six-win season as a 24-year-old.

Perhaps surprising for a player who just produced a six-win season as a 24-year-old is that Stanton’s projection isn’t more optimistic. To that sentiment, Dan Szymborski would likely reply — indeed, has replied before — that star-level players have a “pretty much one-sided risk curve.”

Notable elswhere among Marlins hitters is Christian Yelich’s very encouraging projection of nearly four wins — this, despite possessing slightly below-average (present) power and playing a corner-outfield spot. Complementing those drawbacks with strong plate discipline and considerably above-average defense in that corner, however, Yelich is a candidate to become the National League’s version of Alex Gordon.

Pitchers
Conspicuously omitted from the depth-chart image below — but not from the projections below that — is Jose Fernandez, who’s likely to miss the beginning of the season after having his UCL repaired last May. ZiPS, a computer model, doesn’t know the exact nature of Fernandez’s injury. It appears to know, however, that pitchers who’ve dominated over the course of one season but then only for eight total starts the next — that those pitchers are unlikely to record a full complement of starts in the third season. Fernandez began throwing at the beginning of October.

The rotation sans Fernandez isn’t impressive, but also appears capable of approaching something along the lines of league average, as well. Consider that the median total among starting rotations last year was 11-12 WAR. This group, even without their ace, wouldn’t fare much worse than that, probably.

Bench/Prospects
Part of the reason they wouldn’t fare much worse than that is the surfeit of competent, young pitching prospects who’ll prevent the Marlins from having to utilize any markedly below-replacement arms in the event of injury at the major-league level. Anthony DeSclafani, Justin Nicolino, and Jose Urena, for example, have all played full seasons at Double-A or higher and are all projected to produce more than zero wins. Among field players, Austin Barnes — invoked with some frequency during this year’s Fringe Five series — exhibits promise, although one notes that the catcher positional adjustment probably helps his WAR projection considerably, even if he’s just as likely (if not moreso) to play second base in the majors.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Marlins, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Marlins Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Giancarlo Stanton R 25 RF 614 87 144 29 3 37 95 8 4
Christian Yelich L 23 LF 643 97 159 29 7 13 61 19 6
Marcell Ozuna R 24 CF 542 68 131 26 5 19 76 5 1
Austin Barnes R 25 C 542 63 118 21 3 7 49 6 2
J.T. Realmuto R 24 C 475 54 107 22 4 6 49 10 4
Enrique Hernandez R 23 2B 552 63 132 25 5 10 54 5 5
Jarrod Saltalamacchia B 30 C 437 49 92 22 1 14 50 1 1
Casey McGehee R 32 3B 544 50 128 25 1 8 62 2 2
Austin Wates R 26 CF 405 45 95 14 4 3 33 20 5
Donovan Solano R 27 2B 437 41 103 17 2 4 40 4 1
Derek Dietrich L 25 2B 459 61 98 20 5 13 49 3 2
Jordany Valdespin L 27 2B 376 44 87 13 3 9 40 14 11
Adeiny Hechavarria R 26 SS 623 57 151 22 9 4 50 8 6
Mark Canha R 26 LF 522 62 116 25 2 10 54 3 2
Rob Brantly L 25 C 433 38 99 19 2 4 37 0 1
Zack Cox L 26 3B 408 41 95 19 2 5 36 2 0
Joe Benson R 27 RF 436 45 82 17 4 7 37 10 5
Jeff Mathis R 32 C 235 18 42 10 0 4 22 0 0
Josh Rodriguez R 30 3B 492 51 102 19 2 6 39 5 4
Garrett Jones L 34 1B 471 53 104 25 2 16 56 2 1
Justin Bour L 27 1B 506 56 118 25 0 12 59 2 1
Reid Brignac L 29 3B 303 27 59 12 2 4 26 2 2
Rafael Furcal B 37 2B 166 20 36 5 2 1 12 5 1
Jeff Baker R 34 1B 203 22 48 10 2 4 25 1 0
Matt Angle L 29 RF 397 42 83 13 3 3 29 11 3
Micah Owings R 32 LF 80 8 16 4 1 2 9 0 0
Kyle Jensen R 27 RF 536 60 108 24 1 18 61 2 1
Brady Shoemaker R 28 LF 530 58 111 24 1 9 52 2 2
Reed Johnson R 38 LF 165 19 35 10 0 2 18 0 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP BA OBP SLG wOBA
Giancarlo Stanton 614 12.7% 27.7% .278 .332 .274 .373 .552 .389
Christian Yelich 643 10.3% 22.1% .144 .350 .279 .356 .423 .346
Marcell Ozuna 542 6.3% 26.2% .185 .325 .260 .308 .445 .332
Austin Barnes 542 8.1% 16.4% .099 .283 .243 .312 .342 .294
J.T. Realmuto 475 6.3% 19.4% .110 .294 .244 .295 .354 .289
Enrique Hernandez 552 6.3% 12.1% .129 .282 .260 .311 .389 .306
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 437 9.8% 30.4% .169 .317 .237 .311 .406 .313
Casey McGehee 544 8.8% 18.2% .104 .309 .262 .325 .366 .306
Austin Wates 405 7.4% 17.0% .085 .313 .260 .324 .345 .303
Donovan Solano 437 5.5% 17.4% .083 .307 .258 .306 .341 .286
Derek Dietrich 459 5.4% 24.2% .166 .290 .236 .302 .402 .310
Jordany Valdespin 376 7.2% 16.0% .135 .287 .256 .315 .391 .305
Adeiny Hechavarria 623 5.0% 16.7% .089 .308 .260 .296 .349 .280
Mark Canha 522 8.2% 23.8% .127 .315 .250 .321 .377 .311
Rob Brantly 433 4.8% 16.4% .086 .284 .244 .282 .330 .270
Zack Cox 408 6.4% 22.3% .101 .319 .253 .305 .354 .292
Joe Benson 436 7.6% 29.4% .118 .288 .209 .280 .327 .272
Jeff Mathis 235 6.8% 31.1% .104 .279 .198 .257 .302 .241
Josh Rodriguez 492 7.5% 24.4% .092 .296 .229 .290 .321 .272
Garrett Jones 471 7.9% 22.5% .180 .283 .242 .301 .422 .316
Justin Bour 506 7.1% 21.3% .132 .305 .254 .308 .386 .301
Reid Brignac 303 7.3% 23.8% .103 .275 .215 .274 .318 .259
Rafael Furcal 166 6.6% 14.5% .079 .273 .235 .291 .314 .275
Jeff Baker 203 5.9% 23.6% .139 .319 .255 .300 .394 .304
Matt Angle 397 7.1% 23.4% .078 .302 .231 .293 .309 .271
Micah Owings 80 3.8% 42.5% .157 .350 .211 .250 .368 .273
Kyle Jensen 536 7.5% 32.8% .164 .304 .222 .287 .386 .299
Brady Shoemaker 530 8.1% 25.7% .111 .305 .234 .304 .345 .292
Reed Johnson 165 1.8% 20.0% .106 .280 .232 .276 .338 .269

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Giancarlo Stanton 614 7.7 151 4 5.4 Danny Tartabull
Christian Yelich 643 5.8 113 10 3.8 Junior Felix
Marcell Ozuna 542 5.1 104 -2 2.3 Rob Ducey
Austin Barnes 542 3.9 80 0 1.9 Gregg Zaun
J.T. Realmuto 475 3.8 78 2 1.6 Brad Ausmus
Enrique Hernandez 552 4.3 91 2 1.6 Pete Rose Jr.
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 437 4.4 96 -6 1.5 Tom Wilson
Casey McGehee 544 4.3 90 -1 1.3 Brook Jacoby
Austin Wates 405 4.4 85 -2 0.8 Jamal Strong
Donovan Solano 437 3.9 78 3 0.8 Juan Melo
Derek Dietrich 459 4.3 92 -5 0.8 Luke Hughes
Jordany Valdespin 376 4.2 93 -3 0.7 Jose Ortiz
Adeiny Hechavarria 623 3.7 77 -2 0.6 Royce Clayton
Mark Canha 522 4.3 91 0 0.6 Jeremy Slayden
Rob Brantly 433 3.3 68 1 0.6 Jorge Fabregas
Zack Cox 408 4.0 81 -3 0.3 Jeff Moronko
Joe Benson 436 3.1 67 10 0.2 Juan Camilo
Jeff Mathis 235 2.6 53 2 0.0 George Mitterwald
Josh Rodriguez 492 3.2 68 1 0.0 Adam Morrissey
Garrett Jones 471 4.5 97 -3 0.0 Dan Rohrmeier
Justin Bour 506 4.3 90 0 -0.2 Danny Lewis
Reid Brignac 303 2.9 62 1 -0.2 Keith Johns
Rafael Furcal 166 3.4 67 -2 -0.2 Miguel Cairo
Jeff Baker 203 4.4 89 -2 -0.2 Larry Herndon
Matt Angle 397 3.3 66 5 -0.2 Kevin Koslofski
Micah Owings 80 3.2 68 -1 -0.3 Darrell Whitmore
Kyle Jensen 536 3.9 83 -4 -0.4 John Sellick
Brady Shoemaker 530 3.7 79 -2 -0.4 Thomas Hubbard
Reed Johnson 165 3.1 68 -2 -0.6 Brian Jordan

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Jose Fernandez R 22 19 19 113.0 116 43 7 90 39 36
Henderson Alvarez R 25 27 27 165.7 94 38 13 174 75 70
Jarred Cosart R 25 27 26 148.0 95 66 9 143 68 64
Andrew Heaney L 24 29 27 155.0 129 49 16 153 73 68
Nathan Eovaldi R 25 28 28 161.3 116 47 13 168 77 72
Tom Koehler R 29 30 27 159.3 120 67 16 158 80 75
Steve Cishek R 29 66 0 65.0 76 23 4 53 21 20
Domingo German R 22 24 24 123.3 105 72 8 121 62 58
Justin Nicolino L 23 27 27 148.3 73 30 14 166 77 72
Anthony DeSclafani R 25 30 24 126.3 93 36 13 134 64 60
Brian Flynn L 25 27 27 148.7 98 57 13 161 79 74
Jose Urena R 23 26 25 146.7 98 34 18 160 78 73
A.J. Ramos R 28 68 0 69.0 76 40 4 54 27 25
Adam Conley L 25 20 19 97.7 69 42 8 100 50 47
Chris Hatcher R 30 60 0 70.3 71 20 6 64 28 26
Brad Hand L 25 30 21 122.0 93 56 14 121 64 60
Mike Dunn L 30 71 0 59.3 65 26 4 51 24 22
Sam Dyson R 27 45 0 67.7 53 26 4 65 28 26
Carter Capps R 24 42 0 52.7 57 19 5 49 22 21
Dan Jennings L 28 62 0 61.3 53 28 4 59 27 25
Greg Nappo L 26 40 0 52.3 42 14 5 51 22 21
Kevin Slowey R 31 15 7 55.3 39 14 6 61 29 27
Elih Villanueva R 28 23 19 104.0 66 40 12 112 58 54
Matt Ramsey R 25 42 0 56.0 56 31 5 50 26 24
Micah Owings R 32 5 1 9.0 8 3 1 9 4 4
Brad Penny R 37 18 6 45.0 27 16 4 49 25 23
Bryan Morris R 28 58 0 69.3 52 27 7 68 33 31
Arquimedes Caminero R 28 47 0 61.7 60 29 6 58 30 28
Grant Dayton L 27 42 0 61.7 57 25 7 59 30 28
Nick Wittgren R 24 54 0 63.7 50 18 6 65 31 29
Aaron Crow R 28 67 0 58.3 48 23 6 56 28 26
Kevin Gregg R 37 33 0 32.7 28 15 3 32 17 16
Bryan Evans R 28 29 16 98.0 69 42 14 106 59 55
Ryan Reid R 30 46 0 66.3 49 33 6 68 35 33
Ryan Chaffee R 27 49 0 59.0 52 40 5 56 33 31

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Jose Fernandez 113.0 472 24.6% 9.1% .275 2.87 3.15 76 83
Henderson Alvarez 165.7 709 13.3% 5.4% .289 3.80 3.89 100 103
Jarred Cosart 148.0 653 14.5% 10.1% .280 3.89 4.15 103 110
Andrew Heaney 155.0 667 19.3% 7.3% .296 3.95 4.05 104 107
Nathan Eovaldi 161.3 699 16.6% 6.7% .299 4.02 3.75 106 99
Tom Koehler 159.3 703 17.1% 9.5% .288 4.24 4.40 112 116
Steve Cishek 65.0 271 28.0% 8.5% .295 2.77 2.66 73 70
Domingo German 123.3 563 18.7% 12.8% .303 4.23 4.24 112 112
Justin Nicolino 148.3 641 11.4% 4.7% .295 4.37 4.24 115 112
Anthony DeSclafani 126.3 549 16.9% 6.6% .303 4.27 4.14 113 109
Brian Flynn 148.7 664 14.8% 8.6% .303 4.48 4.34 118 115
Jose Urena 146.7 634 15.5% 5.4% .298 4.48 4.32 118 114
A.J. Ramos 69.0 301 25.2% 13.3% .281 3.26 3.47 86 92
Adam Conley 97.7 435 15.9% 9.7% .297 4.33 4.35 114 115
Chris Hatcher 70.3 295 24.1% 6.8% .296 3.33 3.17 88 84
Brad Hand 122.0 543 17.1% 10.3% .285 4.43 4.62 117 122
Mike Dunn 59.3 255 25.5% 10.2% .298 3.34 3.18 88 84
Sam Dyson 67.7 294 18.0% 8.8% .295 3.46 3.58 91 95
Carter Capps 52.7 226 25.2% 8.4% .310 3.59 3.44 95 91
Dan Jennings 61.3 271 19.6% 10.3% .299 3.67 3.72 97 98
Greg Nappo 52.3 222 18.9% 6.3% .291 3.61 3.78 95 100
Kevin Slowey 55.3 241 16.2% 5.8% .307 4.39 4.15 116 110
Elih Villanueva 104.0 464 14.2% 8.6% .294 4.67 4.76 123 126
Matt Ramsey 56.0 249 22.5% 12.4% .294 3.86 4.21 102 111
Micah Owings 9.0 39 20.5% 7.7% .308 4.00 4.23 106 112
Brad Penny 45.0 200 13.5% 8.0% .298 4.60 4.32 121 114
Bryan Morris 69.3 303 17.2% 8.9% .287 4.02 4.21 106 111
Arquimedes Caminero 61.7 272 22.1% 10.7% .299 4.09 4.01 108 106
Grant Dayton 61.7 269 21.2% 9.3% .295 4.09 4.17 108 110
Nick Wittgren 63.7 274 18.2% 6.6% .299 4.10 3.73 108 98
Aaron Crow 58.3 254 18.9% 9.1% .284 4.01 4.05 106 107
Kevin Gregg 32.7 145 19.3% 10.3% .296 4.41 4.08 116 108
Bryan Evans 98.0 442 15.6% 9.5% .296 5.05 5.12 133 135
Ryan Reid 66.3 300 16.3% 11.0% .300 4.48 4.55 118 120
Ryan Chaffee 59.0 273 19.0% 14.7% .297 4.73 4.70 125 124

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Jose Fernandez 113.0 9.24 3.42 0.56 133 3.0 Kerry Wood
Henderson Alvarez 165.7 5.11 2.06 0.71 101 2.3 Rick Wise
Jarred Cosart 148.0 5.78 4.01 0.55 98 1.9 Blue Moon Odom
Andrew Heaney 155.0 7.49 2.85 0.93 97 1.9 Bobby Ojeda
Nathan Eovaldi 161.3 6.47 2.62 0.73 95 1.8 Brian Moehler
Tom Koehler 159.3 6.78 3.79 0.90 90 1.3 Jamey Wright
Steve Cishek 65.0 10.52 3.18 0.55 138 1.1 Felix Rodriguez
Domingo German 123.3 7.66 5.26 0.58 90 1.0 Bill Mooneyham
Justin Nicolino 148.3 4.43 1.82 0.85 88 1.0 Bobby Livingston
Anthony DeSclafani 126.3 6.63 2.57 0.93 90 1.0 Chien-Ming Wang
Brian Flynn 148.7 5.93 3.45 0.79 85 0.8 Chris George
Jose Urena 146.7 6.01 2.09 1.10 85 0.8 Nicholas Ungs
A.J. Ramos 69.0 9.91 5.22 0.52 117 0.7 Doug Bochtler
Adam Conley 97.7 6.36 3.87 0.74 88 0.7 Derek Thompson
Chris Hatcher 70.3 9.09 2.56 0.77 115 0.7 Joe Boever
Brad Hand 122.0 6.86 4.13 1.03 86 0.6 Bill Pulsipher
Mike Dunn 59.3 9.87 3.95 0.61 115 0.6 Jack Taschner
Sam Dyson 67.7 7.05 3.46 0.53 111 0.5 Gabriel Dehoyos
Carter Capps 52.7 9.73 3.24 0.85 107 0.3 Bob Devlin
Dan Jennings 61.3 7.78 4.11 0.59 104 0.3 Matt Dunbar
Greg Nappo 52.3 7.23 2.41 0.86 106 0.3 Dana Allison
Kevin Slowey 55.3 6.35 2.28 0.98 87 0.3 Sam Arrington
Elih Villanueva 104.0 5.71 3.46 1.04 82 0.3 John Webb
Matt Ramsey 56.0 9.00 4.98 0.80 99 0.1 Bob Gibson
Micah Owings 9.0 8.00 3.00 1.00 96 0.1 Van Mungo
Brad Penny 45.0 5.40 3.20 0.80 83 0.0 Terry Clark
Bryan Morris 69.3 6.75 3.51 0.91 95 0.0 Steve Mintz
Arquimedes Caminero 61.7 8.75 4.23 0.88 94 0.0 Brian Mallette
Grant Dayton 61.7 8.31 3.65 1.02 94 0.0 Jesus Pena
Nick Wittgren 63.7 7.06 2.54 0.85 93 0.0 Josh Stevens
Aaron Crow 58.3 7.41 3.55 0.93 95 0.0 Tom Bolton
Kevin Gregg 32.7 7.71 4.13 0.83 87 -0.1 Ben Weber
Bryan Evans 98.0 6.34 3.86 1.29 76 -0.3 Eddie Candelario
Ryan Reid 66.3 6.65 4.48 0.81 85 -0.4 Marty McLeary
Ryan Chaffee 59.0 7.93 6.10 0.76 81 -0.5 Tomas Santiago

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2014. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2015 ZiPS Projections – Miami Marlins by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Brian L
Guest
Brian L

ZiPS player comps never cease to be awesome. Fernandez getting the Kerry Wood comp is like drawing a Queen of Spades. And Cosart’s comp Blue Moon Odom has just skyrocketed to the top of my “people (alive or deceased) I’d like to meet” list.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Don’t forget Matt Ramsey, he drew the Bob Gibson comp

Dan Szymborski
Guest
Dan Szymborski

The “other” Bob Gibson, who pops up relatively frequently among mediocre relievers.

Craig
Guest
Craig

Thanks Dan, I was actually unaware of another Bob Gibson and that one threw me for a loop.

jim fetterolf
Guest
jim fetterolf

I checked that too. I was going to email Dayton and tell him to make a trade.

Thanks, Comcast
Guest
Thanks, Comcast

I’m surprised they were even able to come up with a Cosart comparison. They must have dug pretty deep to find somebody miraculously successful with those awful peripherals, but I’m very happy they turned up a name like that.

I’m definitely noticing a lot of Brian Moehler comparisons, for some reason. Those poor saps…