2016 MLB Salary Obligations and the Plan in Arizona

Since Tony La Russa and Dave Stewart took over baseball operations for the Arizona Diamondbacks last year, their moves have come under considerable scrutiny. Questions have been raised about the Diamondbacks plan, but not with as much regard to its execution. The questions surrounding the Diamondbacks’ moves have been confusing enough that some wondered if the Diamondbacks had a plan in mind at all. The club looked to be attempting a quick rebuilding process. How they plan to achieve that goal is finally becoming a little more clear.

When the Cubs and Astros took bad teams and completely deconstructed their rosters, choosing to lose for a while and re-stock the organizations, their plans were easy to see. After a full offseason, multiple in-season trades, and the recent major-league draft, the Diamondbacks’ plan, or at least their goal, has come into focus. The Diamondbacks are not interested in a long, drawn out rebuilding process. Their main interests look to be cutting salary and adding players who are ready to contribute now or will be ready to contribute in the near future. They might not be ready to win now, but they appear to be attempting a swift rebuild to make the team competitive.

The Diamondbacks have continued to make moves emphasizing success in the near term, and while they have not completely ignored the long-term, several moves appear to have sacrificed the distant future. Most of the offseason moves Arizona made were reasonably sound. The team dumped the salary of Miguel Montero, although did not find a replacement for him. The trade for Jeremy Hellickson appears relatively harmless. If the Diamondbacks want him back for next year to eat some more innings, they can have him at a fairly cheap price in his final year of arbitration. The trade of Didi Gregorious brought back Robbie Ray, another potential starter at the major-league level.

While the future is out on Yasmany Tomas, the Diamondbacks took an opportunity to try an obtain an impact bat at a price cheaper than the traditional free agent market. Signing 22-year-old Yoan Lopez meant that the Diamondbacks will miss out on much of the international market during the next signing period, but could trade their international slot money for players closer to the majors. The team dabbled with James Shields, a clear near-term upgrade, but eventually saw him sign with the San Diego Padres on a four-year deal. Despite Tony La Russa’s stated goal to field a winning team in 2015, these moves did little to provide hope that the Diamondbacks could reach .500 and the moral victory associated with improvement.

At the beginning of the season, the Diamondbacks had no legitimate catcher, too many outfielders, and a major free-agent signing without a position leading to reasonable questions about their plans. In the first few months of the season, the organization has answered a few of those questions. They released Cody Ross and traded Mark Trumbo, opening up an outfield spot for Yasmany Tomas when Jake Lamb returned from the disabled list to play third base. They signed Jarrod Saltalamacchia after his release from the Miami Marlins, and the team received Wellington Castillo in the Trumbo trade, filling the dormant catcher position.

While Trumbo was close to a salary dump, the Montero trade in the offseason, the Trevor Cahill trade at the start of the season, and the recent, somewhat questionable, trade of Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint were all trades that freed up future salary for the Diamondbacks, and in the Toussaint trade, emphasized the team’s plans to focus on the near future. Of the Diamondbacks’ top eight prospects entering the season, including Yoan Lopez, seven were at or near the majors. The Diamondbacks just traded away the only player on that list not in the upper level of the minors or in the majors. While nearly all drafted players are several years away from the majors when drafted, the team went college-heavy in the draft, preferring players slightly closer to the majors, particularly on the pitching side. After taking Vanderbilt shortstop Dansby Swanson with the first pick, the team drafted a bevvy of college pitchers, although just one, lefty Alex Young, was in Kiley McDaniel’s Top-100 draft prospects.

The team’s immediate justification for the Toussaint trade regarding adding salary for this season rings a bit hollow as the Diamondbacks, even at 3.5 games out of first place at the moment, are unlikely to contend for a playoff spot this season. However, the Diamondbacks have cleared out almost all of their salary for 2016, and the chart below shows how much money each team has obligated to 2016, per Cots. The figures don’t include players eligible for arbitration or players with team options. Only money guaranteed for 2016 is included.

Arizona has just over $27 million committed to salaries for 2016, and nearly half of that amount goes to Aaron Hill. The Diamondbacks could conceivably move Hill, likely by adding some money, and have even less money devoted to next season. A.J. Pollock and Patrick Corbin will receive some money in their first years of arbitration, but the only players who could get decent-sized awards are Jeremy Hellickson and Addison Reed, who looks more like a non-tender candidate right now.

For a little bit of added depth, here is a chart showing 2015 Opening Day salaries with 2016 obligations subtracted from the total to help show what type of spending power each team could have entering the offseason.

Teams budgets change from year to year, but teams are generally likely to spend close to the same amount as the previous season. The Diamondbacks began the year with a payroll under $90 million. Given their billion-dollar television contract, the franchise could choose to up salary considerably moving forward and provide the team with significant spending power. Going .500 is a nice goal, but if the team finishes in the bottom ten this season, they will have a protected draft pick next season and be able to sign any free agent without losing their first round pick next year.

As presently constructed, the Diamondbacks still do not look like a very good team in this year or next. Paul Goldschmidt is fantastic. A.J. Pollock is very good, Yasmany Tomas has potential while Jake Lamb, Nick Ahmed, and Chris Owings could provide average production at very little cost. Archie Bradley, Chase Anderson, and perhaps Patrick Corbin, Rubby de la Rosa or one or more of their top pitching prospects could have the makings of a decent rotation, but overall the team still has a ways to go before reaching contention. The Diamondbacks have answered some questions about what their plan is, but the wisdom and effectiveness of such a plan is yet to be determined.