2016 World Series Game 4 Live Blog

Neil Weinberg: Hey everyone!

Neil Weinberg: Nick Stellini and I are going to be your hosts this evening. Nick is going to be joining the site as a regular writer in a week or two, but this is his soft launch.

Korey Cluber: FOX had Carlos Santana listed as a 1B/OF in the pregame.

Nick Stellini: If I blow up on the launchpad it’s all Neil’s fault.

Neil Weinberg: I saw this. Loved it. I am all about players playing weird positions.

Neil Weinberg:

Erik: So my dad just said, “Jason Heyward is the reason I don’t like WAR.” He’s not particularly old school so that was a bit of a surprise. What’s a good response to that?

Neil Weinberg: Heyward’s WAR wasn’t very good this year! Also, try to break it down into components. The parts of WAR make more sense to some people than the whole thing at once.

Nick: How many future HOFers are playing in this series? Is setting the over/under at 1 a safe bet? The best players are either late bloomers (Kluber/Arietta) or really young still.

Nick Stellini: I am eagerly looking forward to Brandon Guyer’s plaque commemorating how many HBPs he has accumulated.

Neil Weinberg: I think Lester has a reasonable shot. Bryant? Rizzo? Lindor? Chapman? Miller?

Iam Hungry: who do you think projects as better player, lindor or kris bryant?

Neil Weinberg: Bryant. He’s known as a slugger but his glove/running are really good too. Not a knock on Lindor. Lindor is great.

Dock Ellis: So Nick, tell us a little bit about yourself. Where ya from? How old are ya? How’s your parents doing?

Neil Weinberg: Joe Buck is saying people counted Cleveland out against Boston and Toronto. That seems…not accurate?

Nick Stellini: So, hi everyone, I’m Nick. I’m joining up as a daily writer and I’ll be starting fairly soon. Before now, I’ve written at Beyond the Box Score under Neil, and at BP. I’m 22 and from New Jersey. And my folks are doing well, besides my dad’s bum knee acting up of late.

Nick Stellini: I certainly didn’t count Cleveland out against Boston at the very least. The match-ups were in their favor.

Neil Weinberg: Nick has a dog named Zoe. I only follow him on Twitter because sometimes he posts pictures of her.

Joe: Neil you left the emoji responses on! You’re playing with fire.

Neil Weinberg: I didn’t know this was a thing!

Nick Stellini: Oh no. Neil. You’ve doomed us all.

Arrietas bears: Your 22 and from New Jersey? Why haven’t you put up a 10 war season yet?

Neil Weinberg: I think I turned them off

JT: If total WAR is equal does a team made up of players with higher offensive WAR project any differently than one with higher defensive WAR?

Nick Stellini: Nobody’s given me a good shot yet, Mr. Bear

Neil Weinberg: In theory, runs are runs. But there’s a bit more certainty around the offensive numbers, so I’d bet on them if I had to pick

The Hamburglar: So Nick, around here every write kind of has their own little thing. Eno has beer, Jeff has volcanoes, Carson has poetry and overall weirdness. What’s your forte outside of baseball?

Nick Stellini: Well I’m a recovering film major, so there’s that. I know a lot about fencing from doing it in high school, and still dabble occasionally. I also probably play far too much Destiny on PlayStation.

Neil Weinberg: People always ask Dave personal finance questions.

Sandahl Tahn: The trend for this postseason has been heavy reliance on your best bullpen arms. Do you expect the regular season to start to trend this way?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t think so. Guys will burn out. But I think the inning rigidity will loosen

Joseph: Nick, do you blink more than Dave Cameron?

Neil Weinberg: Everyone blinks more than Dave.

Mayor McCheese: whats you stance on ken rosenthall’s bow tie

Nick Stellini: Ken’s bowties are categorically good

Neil Weinberg: Suicide prevention charity tonight! Excellent cause. Ken is good.

Leon Powalski: How do people from NJ pick which MLB team to root for?

Nick Stellini: Well this is as good a time as any to admit I was raised to be a soulless evil Yankees fan.

Nick Stellini: You may proceed to berate me.

sweet swinging: New guy is dead to me already

Nick Stellini: Hooray!

CamdenWarehouse: Do the indians really not have a real RF to put out there? Lonnie is rough

Neil Weinberg: Metrics think he’s fine. Even if that’s a bit generous, I don’t think he’s any kind of disaster

PJ: Let’s all just appreciate Lackey for a moment. How many PITCHERS from 2002 are still puttering around? How many players period?

Nick Stellini: Big Bart!

Neil Weinberg: He can probably do this forever. 2-3 WAR for like 15 more years.

Bro Charboneau: That’s part of missing Brantley, right?

Neil Weinberg: They’re starting Rajai Davis against a RHP tonight. Brantley has a lot of place to play on this roster.

Nick Stellini: Brantley would be playing left, I would imagine

Sandahl Tahn: 95 mph, wow

Mr. Jones: Lackey throws 95?

The Hamburglar: Lindor has really impressed me with his plate discipline this post season. Hard to believe he was supposed to be a glove only player

Nick Stellini: Was that ever really the book on Lindor? The glove was obviously always the standout tool but I thought the report was that he could hit too.

Nick Stellini: I don’t think anybody saw him hitting third, to be fair.

Neil Weinberg: I think the surprise was how quickly the bat showed up

Seth Moko: Sometimes you see guys throwing a few mph faster at start of big game like this – “amped up”… what is harmed by that? Control? Spin rate? Something else?

Nick Stellini: Wow Neil got a poop emoji reaction before I did

Neil Weinberg: Usually command. Although I have no idea about spin rate. That’s one to file away.

The Goat: Announcers say “Lackey one of the few pitchers better in the postseason than in the regular season and it’s not a small sample size.” Is this statement as dumb as I think it is?

Neil Weinberg: I can’t think of anything that would make someone’s true talent better in the postseason than the regular season. Anyone have any ideas?

Neil Weinberg: Obviously some people pitch better, but it’s better competition and if you have the “Will” to pitch better, maybe do it during the entire season

Nick Stellini: There are guys who have found another gear in the playoffs before, right? My mind goes to Syndergaard last year. But, of course, he stayed in that gear for this season.

Neil Weinberg: Sorry about the emojis. You can’t turn them off once the chat goes live. Please try to refrain from using them if you can.

Chris: How can we not mention Bumgarner when talking about guys finding another gear in the playoffs?

Neil Weinberg: Bumgarner is also awesome in the regular season!

Stevil: The playoffs bring out the best of the best. Nobody talks about the possibility of players “smelling” victory and craving it more, but I’m convinced there should be a stat for sense of smell and taste.

Nick Stellini: Tastebuds Above Replacement

Neil Weinberg: Emoji update! You can hide them if they bother you.

Neil Weinberg: Click the like human looking icon

Dock Ellis: What’s worse: Lonnie Chisenhall’s real name is Lonald, or Chipper Jones’ real name is Larry?

Neil Weinberg: I refuse to believe the Lonald thing is real.

Nick Stellini: Baseball Ref says his given name is Lonnie

Nick Stellini: But that could be a product of the Vast Lonald Conspiracy

Neil Weinberg: I love that Rizzo, huge power hitter, sometimes chokes up on the bat

Neil Weinberg: Interesting tidbit from Kluber on the broadcast. Said last time on short rest his legs felt tired moreso than his arm

Nick Stellini: Smh Kluber skips leg day

Neil Weinberg: I wonder if that’s normal?

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: So can we talk about Kluber?

ChatzMcGee: Obvious statement alert(!): Carrasco or healthier Salazar would’ve been huge, think I would’ve favoured the Indians if they had them. You guys?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, that would have been huge. The fact that Cleveland made it this far without them is impressive

Nick Stellini: It certainly would’ve made it much closer on paper, but it would also have given Cleveland two Kluber games instead of three.

Nick Stellini: It’s only the first inning and maybe he settles down, so we shall see

things that fly: Another hot take alert: Fowler handsomer than Bryant, Russell, and Heyward.

Neil Weinberg: No Nick we have to overreact

Nick Stellini: I support this take

Neil Weinberg: Handsomeness is a matter of taste.

Kevin: Hot takes or gtfo

Nick Stellini: This guy gets it

Front-Door Sinker: Kenley Jansen said the same thing about his legs after that 51-pitch outing against the Nationals.

Nick Stellini: First baseman SBs are objectively better than non-first baseman SBs

Neil Weinberg: Rizzo stole three bases in the regular season. Two this postseason!

Nick Stellini: They are only beat by catcher SBs

Neil Weinberg: 17 last year!

Neil Weinberg: Previous high of 6!

Neil Weinberg: What!

Nick Stellini: I wrote about Rizzo’s steals last year at BtBS

Nick Stellini: He was choosing his chances wisely. Often was stealing on the pitcher

Neil Weinberg: Yes…of course. I remembered that.

Nick Stellini: That was fairly early in the year, though, so I don’t know if the trend continued.

Nick Stellini: That’s an article idea to file away for the offseason

5 Run Homer: *shameless plug from Nick*

Russ: Goldschmidt has made first baseman steals blasé.

Nick Stellini: I am nothing but shameless

The Hamburglar: Jonah Keri had a great interview with Kenny Lofton the other day in which Lofton said that the catcher isnt nearly as relevant in a stolen base than the pitcher. I think he put it at 80 pitcher, 20 catcher

Neil Weinberg: This is basically right. Max Weinstein studied this some. So have the BP stats people

Theo: Unless that catcher is David Ross

Neil Weinberg: Plug! Hardball Times Annual has a chapter from me all about back picks

Nick Stellini: Is it about how Piazza handled his obviously insidious backne?

Neil Weinberg: Nicolas.

Nick Stellini: “With his ace on the mound, he wanted his best defense out there.”

5 Run Homer: How much does the Hardball Times Annual cost?

Neil Weinberg: Usually around $16

Russ: This topic was king of addressed through a fantasy lens in June: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/streaming-for-stolen-bases-by-pitcher/

Nick Stellini: Wouldn’t you theoretically want a better defense behind a worse pitcher, or am I being dumb?

Neil Weinberg: Oh my

Nick Stellini: Smooth

Neil Weinberg: (guitar riff)

Kevin: Man it’s a hot one

Mr. Jones: Oye como va

Neil Weinberg: Need to locate August’s “here’s why Santana is good” list

Nick Stellini: 1. Dingers

Bro Charboneau: Lackey’s got to change his evil ways.

Ryan: To think: Casey Blake for Carlos Santana.

Neil Weinberg: Casey Blake destroy the Tigers (my favorite team) and then Cleveland traded him for a great player.

Nick Stellini: Joe Buck said “tarpaulin” and he is my hero

Jon: That throw was too high

Mike: August on Carlos Santana:

Neil Weinberg: What is this “nobody gave them a chance” narrative?

xxx: Is Brantley’s career already over?

Neil Weinberg: Gosh, that’s a sad thought

Nick Stellini: Way, way too soon to tell.

DaveB: See Sizemore, Grady and Hafner, Travis

Nick Stellini: How dare you speak poorly of Former Yankees Great Travis Hafner

Minty: How long until the All-Star game no longer matters?

Russ:

Nick Stellini: Incoming Kluber dinger

Neil Weinberg: Would he smile?

Nick Stellini:

Ryan: Too early to PH Kluber?

Ryan: He’s gonna Klub it

Neil Weinberg: Yes

Nick Stellini: I love to PH for my ace in the second inning, personally

Neil Weinberg: Wow

Neil Weinberg: can’t throw a strike to the pitcher

Neil Weinberg: NEVER SWING 3-1

Neil Weinberg: (slight exaggeration)

Nick Stellini: He’s getting decent pitches to hit.

Nick Stellini: If he actually somehow goes deep do I get Dave’s job for being Nostradamus?

hurricanexyz: oh my god, pitchers swinging when ahead in the count infuriates me so much. if I were a manager I would give my pitchers absolute take signs on like 100% of 3-1 counts

Neil Weinberg: I wrote a thing last year that said basically everyone should take on 3-1 much more than they do. Pitchers should never swing imo on 3-1

Neil Weinberg: Oh hell yes Kluber infield hit

Nick Stellini: Let’s get weird

Moldy Pumkin: How many times has Kluber ever gone yard?

Neil Weinberg: Never had a professional HR

The Hamburglar: Why is that? Are strikes rarely thrown on 3-1 or something?

Neil Weinberg: Basically, the odds of a walk are high enough that it’s worth risking dropping into a 3-2 count. It’s not automatic, but guys swing way too much on 3-1 relative to 3-0

Neil Weinberg: I like the idea of Cleveland winning the game because of that Kluber AB

Nick Stellini: Also 3-1 is generally considered a “hitter’s count” where you should swing, so I would totally never throw a 3-1 fastball. I also walked in four runs the one time I pitched in little league so never listen to me.

Neil Weinberg: Jeff Paternostro says 4.45 for Kluber down the line

Mike: Baseball is weird, and the best

hurricanexyz: and they probably swing too little 3-0, right? 3-1 and 3-0 behavior should converge on each other a little bit

Neil Weinberg: Let me find the link. That’s basically how I got interested in this

Neil Weinberg: http://www.hardballtimes.com/should-one-strike-make-this-much-difference/

Noah: We all know Cleveland is destined to win this game then blow a 3-1 lead, right?

5 Run Homer: Is that fast?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know the exact numbers, but that’s certainly fast for a pitcher

Nick Stellini: I would die happy if Cleveland blew a 3-1 lead in the World Series

Nick Stellini: I would simply die of laughter

CSW: Is there any adjustment for game theory? To keep pitcher honest?

Neil Weinberg: Yeah, you can’t literally never swing. I was exaggerating a bit.

The Hamburglar: Kluber was all state track in college at Stetson University

Nick Stellini: Heyward is destined to hit a walk-off bomb in game seven, right?

Neil Weinberg: I hope so

Neil Weinberg: I mean…I don’t

Neil Weinberg: But I want him to do well

The Hamburglar: I have no proof on the track thing, but itd be cool if he was

The Hamburglar: If Heyward hits a walk off bomb in Cleveland, we’ve got a problem

Neil Weinberg: FACT CHECK: We did not fact check this

Brian: Very hard to hit walk off as visiting player

ChatzMcGee: Most pointless StatCast ever?

Neil Weinberg: Pretty close

Neil Weinberg: looks out

Sgt. Pepper: He looked safe but I might be baez

Nick Stellini: I would not complain if Statcast was used in broadcasts 80% less often

Neil Weinberg: To be fair, getting stuff on the air is a pretty involved process. I imagine a lot of the early stuff are test runs.

Neil Weinberg: I have a friend who does graphics for one of the RSNs. Hard to get things on air as quickly as you need to for it to be relevant

Neil Weinberg:

Grorm Finkelstein: Neil, since you’re doing a chat finally, can we yell at you for your emergency catcher notion, or is that not fair? My position is I don’t utterly hate having a 26th roster spot that has to be a catcher but can’t be used barring injury, like the now defunct 3rd quarterback rule in football, but I truly abhor the notion of an automatic out. But I thought the much more important point you made was that managers are too cautious about using their 2nd catcher relative to the actual risk, and that point suggests that your emergency catcher idea isn’t necessary at all–we just need better managing and less risk-aversion.

Neil Weinberg: This doesn’t seem like yelling!

Neil Weinberg: I would be cool with better managers too. I also like bullpen catchers and this seemed fun.

Guest: Does Lackey make it to the 4th?

Nick Stellini: Mark Montgomery will be an important player in this game

Neil Weinberg: I think he’s due up next, right?

Joe: You mean Mike Montgomery?

Nick Stellini: This is what happens when I read Yankees prospect blogs for years

Nick Stellini: Cripes

Neil Weinberg: Assume Lackey gets PH next inning

T: If the bullpen catcher comes in can he have a bullpen cart?

Neil Weinberg: Bullpen cart should come back

Nick Stellini: Yeah he can’t stay in this game

5 Run Homer: Lackey isn’t looking all that hot

Johnny Baseball : John Lackey is the greatest

Neil Weinberg: Conflicting opinions

Leon Powalski: I think they should just let Lackey get himself tossed instead of making a pitching change

Neil Weinberg: Oh yes please

Nick Stellini: There’s some #strategy there

Nick Stellini: The replacement would get as long as he needs to warm up, right?

Neil Weinberg: I think that’s just injury? But I’m not sure about it

Grorm Finkelstein: I’m listening to the radio broadcast–does Lackey have a legitimate beef about umpiring?

Neil Weinberg: Zone seems a little tight?

Neil Weinberg: BACK PICK ATTEMPT

Nick Stellini: The Cubs love them some back picks

Neil Weinberg: back pickiest team in mlb

Deece: Now im interested in what happens if the cubs season litterally depends on Lester having to pick someone off in game 5

Neil Weinberg: Excited for this

Nick Stellini: The takes will kill us all

Ryan W: Is there any research on how often back picks work?

Neil Weinberg: I wrote about this for the upcoming THT annual

Slammin Sammy: “Strike” is the new “catch” right? Totally unclear

Nick Stellini: But did Lackey make a football move?

Neil Weinberg: I will have my full data set out for the public when the book comes out

Bro Charboneau: I’m expecting a crucial errant back pick to reinforce the curse narrative.

Neil Weinberg: Assume Lackey gets PH here?

Seth Moko: What’s the leverage on leading off an inning?

Neil Weinberg: About average, or a touch below usually

Nick Stellini: Oh, Joe.

Neil Weinberg: Guess not!

Nick Stellini: This is a very bad decision.

Grorm Finkelstein: Finally found it–the rules don’t seem to distinguish explicitly between ejection and injury: “If a sudden emergency causes a pitcher to be summoned into the game without any opportunity to warm up, the umpire-in-chief shall allow him as many pitches as the umpire deems necessary.” Rule 5.07 (b)

Neil Weinberg: I don’t get letting him hit. He has to have a short leash next inning

Nick Stellini: Maddon makes some…. interesting in-game choices.

Neil Weinberg: It’s not so much that you let him hit there, it’s that you’re letting him hit when he does not appear to have much left

Nick Stellini: Right.

Leon Powalski: Has Dex been getting killed inside like this all year?

Nick Stellini: Neil should Bryant swing here?

Neil Weinberg: I remember noticing something about him on inside pitches like two months ago but I don’t recall if it was good or bad

Neil Weinberg: DONT SWING

Nick Stellini: Damnit, Sparkles.

Jon: I know managing ultimately only moves the needle a few percentage points, but do you think Francona has had one of the best managed postseasons ever?

Neil Weinberg: I think some of this is recency bias, but Francona has done very well relative to managers of the last five or so years at least

Nick Stellini: We’ve had a very fun strike zone this series

Neil Weinberg: what if it’s a false flag strike zone to warm people to the idea of robot umps

Neil Weinberg: I am not serious fyi

Professor Ross Eforp: My guess is that Maddon wants to sneak another inning out of Lackey and then double swich for somebody down in the order (hint, Heyward).

Nick Stellini: So the ball out over the plate isn’t a strike, but the slider inside is.

Neil Weinberg: I think this is probably true. Too cute by half imo. Something Ausmus would do

Neil Weinberg: Rizzo HBP well I never

Norm had an anal prolapse: Is he trying to cancel out Hirschbeck? That’s not how this works.. that’s not how any of this works.

Nick Stellini:

Jon: Has there been a lot of study of individual umpire ball/strike tendencies?

Neil Weinberg: Yes. Jon Roegele has done some stuff on this. Not sure if it’s fully published or not.

PJ: Does short-rest, game 7 plans have Kluber’s pitch ceiling below 90?

Nick Stellini: I think you leave him in as long as you can

Nick Stellini: It’s Game 7. Every out is a high leverage out.

Neil Weinberg: I would think Kluber is on a pitch count. Bet Francona hoping for a PH situation that makes the call for him

Nick Stellini: Relatively speaking, that is.

Neil Weinberg: I think he means for tonights game

Nick Stellini: Ahhhhhh

Nick Stellini: Then yes

Ryan W: Couldn’t you argue he made no attempt to get out of the way? Isn’t that part of the rule? No ump would call it in the world series but still

Neil Weinberg: This never gets called. Think I’ve seen it once in my entire life

Professor Ross Eforp: Jose Ramirez is the next Ben Zobrist.

Nick Stellini: Now this is a take.

Neil Weinberg: You don’t have much time, to be fair.

Nick Stellini: I have to look at Ramirez’s defensive metrics but it’s intriguing.

Colin: Any idea what Perez’s framing numbers are? I don’t watch many Indians games but he doesn’t seem to have great hands?

Neil Weinberg: Perez graded out as a very good framer

DaveB: Zobrist harder than typical to strike out?

Neil Weinberg: Yes, much harder than average

Nick Stellini: Hey, this Kluber guy might be good!

Neil Weinberg: (thinking emoji)

Ryan W: If Kluber comes up this inning do you PH or ride him out? Gotta keep him in right?

Nick Stellini: Absolutely

Neil Weinberg: On full rest, he stays in. Not sure about short rest, depends how he feels stamina-wise

Nick Stellini: So, Travis Wood is warming up right now. If Maddon is going to have a reliever ready to jump in at a moment’s notice, why keep Lackey in?

Nick Stellini: Such a silly choice.

Neil Weinberg: No idea. Ausmusian move.

John: In a 50 game series between these two teams, what do the results look like? I’ll take Cubs 30-20.

Neil Weinberg: Hold on. Gonna do math on this

Hareeb al-Saq: You’re going to trust Kluber to be honest Nick?

Nick Stellini: Absolutely. He doesn’t have his best stuff but he doesn’t look bad by any stretch either.

Nick Stellini: Why would you bunt there?

Nick Stellini: Free outs for a struggling pitcher!

Neil Weinberg: I got basically exactly 30-20 for the Cubs based on 2016 performance

Professor Ross Eforp: Alternative theory on Kluber usage. Ride him until he can no longer be ridden tonight and fully commit to a bullpen game tomorrow.

Neil Weinberg: If you go too hard tonight he might not be very good for G7. And he’s probably not equipped to pitch deep tonight. But speculating.

Neil Weinberg:

hurricanexyz: it would be interesting if you had the option for the two managers to stipulate rule changes like that by agreement

Nick Stellini: Requisite Eddie Vedder appearance! Drink!’

Mike: Is Contreras a good pitch framer, statistically? Everything he does is big back there, and it seems like that would have the opposite effect.

Neil Weinberg: BP says he was good in MLB this year, but his MiLB numbers aren’t good. Only about 3000 chances, so I’m not putting stock into the numbers yet for him

Bro Charboneau: Each team can bring back one player from their franchise’s past, in their prime, for the rest of the WS. Who would it be?

Neil Weinberg: Bob Feller? Greg Maddux?

Neil Weinberg: First two that came to mind

Nick Stellini: Junior Lake for the Cubs, obviously

Neil Weinberg: Can the Cubs choose 2015 Arrieta?

Matt L: Gotta be Ryan Theriot

Nick Stellini: Do we know that Bob Feller would be able to get modern hitters out?

Nick Stellini: Or, would guys like Ernie Banks be able to thrive against modern pitchers?

Neil Weinberg: NOT THE SPIRIT OF THE QUESTION STELLINI

Leon Powalski: If each team could pick each others, Jose Mesa and Alex Gonzalez

5 Run Homer: Is it wrong to be disappointed in Lindor for not making that play

Neil Weinberg: Tough play, I think you want him to make that more often than not, but I’m only mildly disappointed?

Neil Weinberg: Not a great jump, good thing he fouled that off

Nick Stellini: Vintage Javy Baez, yikes

Neil Weinberg: Perez throwing to first even when the inning is over is one of my new favorite things

5 Run Homer: Vasgersian just called a K a “punchie”. Don’t like it

Neil Weinberg: This is a thing. Tend to agree though

anonymous: Home Runs have such better nicknames than strikeouts

Nick Stellini: Another Inning of John Lackey: The Joe Maddon Story

5 Run Homer: Lackey in the 5th! Short leash?

Enlightening Round: stellini watch the movie “fastball” on Netflix….Feller was bringing it, he could get these guys out

Nick Stellini: I’ve seen it. Great doc! Highly recommended. Just a little skeptical of the calculations on the old pitchers at the end.

Neil Weinberg: He’s pitched just well enough the last inning plus to keep Maddon in the dugout. Managers hate taking the ball if the pitcher feels like they’re doing well

Brian: I don’t know if it’s the terrible perspective but the zone seems genuinely terrible tonight

Neil Weinberg: Our rendering (unofficial) says it’s been very tight http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2016-10-29&team=Cubs&dh=0&season=2016

Joe: Do you know which strike zone you use for that?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t. Should look at MLB and Brooks too.

Neil Weinberg: Let’s do that!

Neil Weinberg: Brooks http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=10&day=29&year=2016&game=gid_2016_10_29_clemlb_chnmlb_1/&prevDate=1029

Neil Weinberg: MLB https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=487634&type=home_pitchers&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=sbp&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=

Neil Weinberg: Seems to all line up. Not a great zone

Duke of Tralee: “Bryant has four errors this postseason [in 13+ games]”–that’s the only fact you know. How much does that tell you about his defensive performance: almost everything, a lot, a little, almost nothing?

Neil Weinberg: A little.

Scott: What’s the difference between the gray line and the green line in the win expectancy graph?

Neil Weinberg: Gray line factors in our pre-game odds as a starting point. Green line assumes equal teams.

Neil Weinberg: Not sure if camera person was fooled or the wind killed that

Nick Stellini: I think it was the wind. Yeesh.

Neil Weinberg: Statcast says .258 xBA

Nick Stellini: Hot take: Kris Bryant needs to get hits if the Cubs are going to win the World Series

Paul G.: When was the last complete game in World Series history?

Neil Weinberg: Last year. Cueto

David: Just out of interest because I don’t know this, can Kluber’s performance influence those who couldn’t choose CY Young wise or are votes cast already?

Neil Weinberg: Votes already submitted

Ryan W: So do you try and get 1 more out of Kluber than go miller/Allen for the last 9?

Nick Stellini: I would personally send him back out, yeah

PJ: Is Lindor better from the left side or right side?

Neil Weinberg: Basically even splits for his career.

Ryan W: Over/under 1.5 throws over/back pick attempts with Lindor on first?

Neil Weinberg: Under

Neil Weinberg: That play had everything

Bro Charboneau: I think a Looney Toons short just interrupted my broadcast!

Chris: What the hell was that play?

Ryan W: Holy God. That’s is crazy

Ryan W: That was fantastic. Can’t wait to see GIFs of that tomorrow

anonymous: Are there balls hit whose xBA is 1.000?

Jason: Nick, what was your favourite MLB game you attended?

Neil Weinberg: There shouldn’t be. It’s based on similar batted balls. And any modeling they do should account for maximum

Nick Stellini: Off the top of my head, I was at the recent Mark Teixeira walk-off grand slam

Nick Stellini: That was a joy

Neil Weinberg: We need to check with the judges…he back picked on Lindor but it was at 3b

Neil Weinberg: judges are counting it

Judges: We’ll allow it

Nick Stellini: I mean, Neil, wouldn’t you say that a Giancarlo Stanton 500 ft bomb pretty much has an xBA of 1.000?

Neil Weinberg: I read that as more than 1.000 because I am stupid

Neil Weinberg: Yes, there are 1.000 xBA

Neil Weinberg: BACK PICK

DaveB: Back pick bonanza!

Neil Weinberg: this is the theme for my birthday party next year

forestation: The Rizzo bloop single from 1st inning has 1.0 xBA

Roger: Do we have any stats on the most pick-offs by a catcher, either in general or in the post-season?

Neil Weinberg: I tracked them all regular season! Going to release the data when the THT annual comes out in about a month. Cubs did it the most

Nick Stellini:

Michael Fuller: So we can expect the Cubs to be at the party

Neil Weinberg: Sal Perez is coming too.

anonymous: Back pick is the new market inefficiency

Neil Weinberg: My #brand is on point right now

ChatzMcGee: Draymond might like kick Lindor in the nuts hard enough to take him out of the series though, I guess.

Neil Weinberg: Kind of seems like you need Rondon or Chapman ready for this

Neil Weinberg: Or Strop even

5 Run Homer: Guyer HBP odds?

Nick Stellini: 100%

Neil Weinberg: Joe Buck was geared up to say “Bartman”

anonymous: Guyer looks like a create-a-player from MLB The Show

Jason: Prime Henry Rowengartner vs prime Ricky Vaughn?

Nick Stellini: Gimme Rowengartner all day

Neil Weinberg:

Neil Weinberg: Francona can now use Kluber for this inning, PH, then go to Miller. Or double switch Miller in.

David D. Ferguson: How screwed are the Cubs if they lose tonight?

Nick Stellini: Pretty darn screwed. With Lester going tomorrow they have a good shot, but Kluber in game 7 is a pretty huge asset.

Neil Weinberg: I think they win 10-15% of the time down 3-1.

Roger: If he gets posted, should the Cubs snap up Shohei Otani? Seems like he would be the perfect player for Maddon’s shennanigans

Nick Stellini: Everyone should snap up Otani

Neil Weinberg: An AL team should sign him

Neil Weinberg: DH is the only way an MLB team allows him to hit

Nick Stellini: Man screw this wind. I want dingers.

Neil Weinberg: I know everyone knows this but I still can’t believe they play baseball with a brick wall outfield

Guest: If Indians win game 7 with kluber winning 3 of them, is he lock for MVP?

Nick Stellini: He and Miller will be co-MVPs, I would guess

Neil Weinberg: Hard to imagine anyone else winning, but Miller would be only other option

Nick Stellini: Rod!

Neil Weinberg: xBA is .968 on the Rizzo double. So wind killed it

David Dwight Ferguson: what about andrew millers jockstrap, which hasnt been washed since september?

Nick Stellini: The Jock Strap will win Cy Young

Neil Weinberg: 25 launch angle, 104 mph. That’s a dinger in most situations

David D. Ferguson: Is Zobrist still an underrated player?

Nick Stellini: noooooo

Nick Stellini: Not at all

Neil Weinberg: Yes. Someone should have paid him $80M last winter.

anonymous: Imagine a hockey rink or football field with a brick wall sideline

Neil Weinberg: Anyone remember NFL Blitz

Nick Stellini: Do football players run into the wall that often?

Chounsa01: neil, how do you get his xBA so quickly… wouldn’t you need his exit velo and other statcast data for that particular hit?

Neil Weinberg: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=487634&type=exit_velocity&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=sbp&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=

The Hamburglar: I think teams were willing to pay him that much, he just took less to go to the Cubs?

Neil Weinberg: Maybe.

99: Baseball never got it’s NFL Blitz or NBA Jam.

Nick Stellini: The Mets bid more for him IIRC

Neil Weinberg: MLB Slugfest!

Kevin: How much longer should Kluber be in? One more inning?

Neil Weinberg: That’s it for him I think

Neil Weinberg: PH then Miller

Joseph Theodore Chernak: Do any of you guys watch Pitch?

Neil Weinberg: Watched the first two, but am very behind on TV.

Bro Charboneau: Should WS MVP be decided solely by highest cumulative WPA?

Neil Weinberg: Not in my opinion. WPA isn’t a great stat for measuring player value.

Neil Weinberg: even if you want context dependent stuff

Nick Stellini: What would be the mascot of Coco Crisp cereal?

Chounsa01: Neil, your stuff in the fangraphs library is fantastic and probably the most important stuff written on the site. Why is your new stuff in the library NEVER on the front page or in the RSS feed? Serious oversight in information that should be read first and foremost.

Neil Weinberg: I didn’t know that about RSS. We had talked about Library getting its own box, but probably not enough updates to warrant. But thanks!

Bro Charboneau: Anthropomorphic chocolate covered waffle fry that hits only doubles.

Babe Ruthless: A noodle, becuase of his arm strength

Neil Weinberg: Was fun to see Rizzo enter the picture there

Nick Stellini: Things are looking Grimm for the Cubbies

Neil Weinberg: NICK

Neil Weinberg: Kinda weird that the Cubs are going to go down with Rondon, Strop, and Chapman not in the game

Nick Stellini: Joe Maddon is incredibly overrated as an in-game manager

Bosley for Men: Why do baseball players bald young? Is it there helmets?

Paul G.: So who has Take Me Out to the Ballgame duty for this one?

Neil Weinberg: We need to send this question to Ben and Sam

Neil Weinberg: Vince Vaughn, I think?

Nick Stellini: Noted Musical Artist Vince Vaughn!

Neil Weinberg: True story: Only time I’ve been to wrigley he sang it!

Bro Charboneau: He’s a True Detective!

Nick Stellini: Francisco Lindor is the real True Detective

Neil Weinberg: Dagger

Nick Stellini: Cripes!

DonJon: Where was the wind?

Nick Stellini: Taking your third L of the World Series without using your best relievers is no way to go through life, folks.

Neil Weinberg: Baseball Gauge says CLE is 88% to win the series.

Neil Weinberg: That’s just assuming even quality I believe though

Noah: What was the championship probability added of the dinger?

Nick Stellini: Someone get Ben ASAP

Neil Weinberg: Only like 1%. They had good odds of winning the game already

Neil Weinberg: (per Baseball Gauge)

Ryan: Cubs could still come back but Indians seem to have the series in the bag. Pure speculation but do you think the Cubs make any big shakeups or just run it back for the most part next year?

Neil Weinberg: Mostly same club I think.

Joe Buck Fucks: Should the Indians still use Miller or just save him?

Atrain: how do the Indians handle their bullpen with a 6 run lead?

Cube Jockey: Turn this over to the end of bullpen to save Miller and Allen?

Neil Weinberg: I would be tempted to use the aces, but probably go with Shaw/Otero types?

Nick Stellini: I would bring in Otero next inning

Nick Stellini: Manship after that if the lead grows

twb: how many people are on the chat tonight?

Neil Weinberg: Around 400

Popped My Fly!: Do the cubs use there best relievers or rest them too?

Neil Weinberg: Cubs should rest them.

TAKE HIM OUT OF THE BALL GAME: Vince Vaughn can only help so much

Neil Weinberg: This has to be the first time these words have appeared in this order

Neil Weinberg: I think the correct move is to save Miller but I get wanting to use him. He’s the best reliever and you want to end them.

Pine Tar and Feathered: Is Heyward a bounce back candidate for next year?

Neil Weinberg: Yes

Nick Stellini: Absolutely. I’m expecting at least a 100 wRC+ from him next year.

Nick Stellini: This year is a massive outlier for him.

Neil Weinberg:

Luke: Could the cubs trade Heyward? A lot of teams probably expect a bounce back

Nick Stellini: They’d be trading him at the absolute lowest point of his value. Wouldn’t make a ton of sense.

Neil Weinberg: Seven pitch inning.

Nick Stellini: Miller’s okay I guess

Neil Weinberg: So, that’s not what you want if you’re the Cubs.

Noah: Can miller still go tomorrow? How much do warmup pitches add up?

Neil Weinberg: He can definitely go tomorrow

Adam: What’s chat room % of comments that make it past moderation?

Nick Stellini: We filter out all the comments trying to expose Neil as a Cleveland stooge

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know exactly but there’s a lot of comments that haven’t made it through.

Neil Weinberg: Noted Cleveland fan, Neil Weinberg….

Greg: How much are the cubs regretting not getting both Yankee relievers right now?

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know why they didn’t get Miller

Neil Weinberg: Now Rondon comes in. Wild

Nick Stellini: It’s really mystifying that they didn’t

Kershaw’s Curves: Has any player raised there stock in one postseason as much as Miller has this postseason?

Neil Weinberg: Daniel Murphy?

Nick Stellini: Also Miller was already pretty much a death sentence

Neil Weinberg: Miller was really good already, just a little more famous now

Newman Center: Who’s running the live chat tomorrow?

Neil Weinberg: Carson and Eric

Stevil: Who takes the primary blame when the Cubs lose?

Nick Stellini: A goat

Neil Weinberg: Can I say Corey Kluber?

ChatzMcGee: Neil is too much of a Cleveland-homer, be more objective.

Neil Weinberg: I can’t tell if this is a joke but I am a Tigers fan

hastily made bullpen decisions: if chris sale was a reliever would he be andrew miller?

Neil Weinberg: He would be better, I think!

Matt : Looking back would you trade Schwarber for Miller at the deadline?

Neil Weinberg: Several questions like this…. I think I would do it.

Nick Stellini: No because I am a Yankees fan and I like Clint Frazier (Yes, I would have done it)

Abe: If Francona had only played one game of cribbage with Napoli, would he have been angry enough to push that ball over the wall?

Nick Stellini: I will now believe this as canon

Cribbage Master: Can someone explain, WHAT IS CRIBBAGE?

Neil Weinberg: Card game.

Skitch: wHRCaC – Weighted Home Run Chance after Cribbage

Raith: How often is Napoli’s hit a home run based on exit velocity and what not

Neil Weinberg: let’s see

Neil Weinberg: .923 xBA

The Hamburglar: It’s a mix between cabbage and cricket

Matt L: Does anyone here have a single reason Miller should still be pitching?

Neil Weinberg: Seems like it’s a HR 92% of the time and an out 8%

Nick Stellini: Theoretically, and this isn’t me defending this move, you’d think it’s because he has zero faith in Bauer tomorrow

Nick Stellini: OH WOW

Paul G.: I think that home run broke Neil and Nick.

Nick Stellini: I am dead

Nick Stellini: RIP me

Neil Weinberg: There were like a zillion comments after that

Neil Weinberg: I choked tbh

Joseph: … Are Nick and Neil okay? Like, I know we’re on MillerGraphs, so him giving up a run in the postseason is basically the end of the website as we know it, but still.

Nick Stellini: Man I was really looking forward to writing here, too

Nick Stellini: Sad!

Neil Weinberg: Fun fact: There have actually been Miller article pitches that got shot down because we had too much Miller content.

Neil Weinberg:

The Hamburglar: Indians could conceivably trade Miller in the offseason and get a better package than they gave up to the Yankees?

Neil Weinberg: I’m not sure about better. Trade prices are higher at the deadline…but also more teams in the mix. Similar deals I think

Nick Stellini:

Neil Weinberg: I love that the WS winning poll is 88-12, just like .5*.5*.5 odds

Slide in these GMs: Will the Cleveland Browns win the Super Bowl this year?

Nick Stellini: Obviously

Neil Weinberg: I don’t know a lot about football, but seems to be Cleveland’s year!

Neil Weinberg: I have such a good tweet ready if the Cubs win the series. Might go to waste!

Joe: The Browns are 0-7

Nick Stellini: But they’re 7-0 in our hearts

Brian: If cle wins what does the off-season look like other than offering lindor a blank check

Nick Stellini: Getting a catcher would be a good start, but they theoretically don’t need someone who will be there for a long time given Mejia looking pretty good.

Neil Weinberg: Probably pretty quiet. This offseason is going to be hard to predict. There’s nothing in FA.

Joseph: I don’t see how Cleveland can win the Super Bowl; they don’t have a Toronto team to beat in the AFC Championship game.

Tim: Actually, the Bills play several of their games in Toronto each year.

Brian: The Buffalo buffaloes count?

Neil Weinberg: This is a thing?

Neil Weinberg: I can see it now

Nick Stellini: I do have to wonder if they bring back JR Smith to play center field next year

Neil Weinberg: Otero time

Nick Stellini: That’s Former Yankees Great Dan Otero to you, Neil

Joseph: 1. Buffalo is not Toronto, therefore doesn’t count? 2. The Bills stopped playing in Toronto two years ago. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bills_Toronto_Series

Neil Weinberg: Tomorrow would be a heck of a night for Lester to show he’s been running a long con and pick everyone off

Nick Stellini: I would cry tears of joy

Bro Charboneau: Heyward is going to crack one right here.

Neil Weinberg: Wonder if there will be a burn the ships speech?

Ben: If Bauer goes 4-5 innings tomorrow and the Indians have a 1-run lead, do you expect Tito to go to Miller for 2 innings again?

Neil Weinberg: Yes

Neil Weinberg: Alright folks, thanks for hanging out.

Nick Stellini: Get your Crying Jordan memes ready, people

Neil Weinberg: Carson and Eric will be here tomorrow.

Nick Stellini: It’s been a joy talking to y’all for the first time. I’ll be writing some content pretty soon. In the meantime, you can catch me at @StelliniTweets.