2016 World Series Game 4 Live Blog

7:53	Neil Weinberg: Hey everyone!

7:53	Neil Weinberg: Nick Stellini and I are going to be your hosts this evening. Nick is going to be joining the site as a regular writer in a week or two, but this is his soft launch.

7:54	Korey Cluber: FOX had Carlos Santana listed as a 1B/OF in the pregame.

7:54	Nick Stellini: If I blow up on the launchpad it’s all Neil’s fault.

7:54	Neil Weinberg: I saw this. Loved it. I am all about players playing weird positions.

7:55	Neil Weinberg: Who would you like to win tonight? Cleveland (49.1% \| 57 votes) Cubs (50.8% \| 59 votes) Total Votes: 116

7:56	Erik: So my dad just said, “Jason Heyward is the reason I don’t like WAR.” He’s not particularly old school so that was a bit of a surprise. What’s a good response to that?

7:57	Neil Weinberg: Heyward’s WAR wasn’t very good this year! Also, try to break it down into components. The parts of WAR make more sense to some people than the whole thing at once.

7:58	Nick: How many future HOFers are playing in this series? Is setting the over/under at 1 a safe bet? The best players are either late bloomers (Kluber/Arietta) or really young still.

7:59	Nick Stellini: I am eagerly looking forward to Brandon Guyer’s plaque commemorating how many HBPs he has accumulated.

7:59	Neil Weinberg: I think Lester has a reasonable shot. Bryant? Rizzo? Lindor? Chapman? Miller?

7:59	Iam Hungry: who do you think projects as better player, lindor or kris bryant?

8:00	Neil Weinberg: Bryant. He’s known as a slugger but his glove/running are really good too. Not a knock on Lindor. Lindor is great.

8:00	Dock Ellis: So Nick, tell us a little bit about yourself. Where ya from? How old are ya? How’s your parents doing?

8:01	Neil Weinberg: Joe Buck is saying people counted Cleveland out against Boston and Toronto. That seems…not accurate?

8:02	Nick Stellini: So, hi everyone, I’m Nick. I’m joining up as a daily writer and I’ll be starting fairly soon. Before now, I’ve written at Beyond the Box Score under Neil, and at BP. I’m 22 and from New Jersey. And my folks are doing well, besides my dad’s bum knee acting up of late.

8:02	Nick Stellini: I certainly didn’t count Cleveland out against Boston at the very least. The match-ups were in their favor.

8:03	Neil Weinberg: Nick has a dog named Zoe. I only follow him on Twitter because sometimes he posts pictures of her.

8:03	Joe: Neil you left the emoji responses on! You’re playing with fire.

8:03	Neil Weinberg: I didn’t know this was a thing!

8:03	Nick Stellini: Oh no. Neil. You’ve doomed us all.

8:03	Arrietas bears: Your 22 and from New Jersey? Why haven’t you put up a 10 war season yet?

8:04	Neil Weinberg: I think I turned them off

8:04	JT: If total WAR is equal does a team made up of players with higher offensive WAR project any differently than one with higher defensive WAR?

8:04	Nick Stellini: Nobody’s given me a good shot yet, Mr. Bear

8:04	Neil Weinberg: In theory, runs are runs. But there’s a bit more certainty around the offensive numbers, so I’d bet on them if I had to pick

8:05	The Hamburglar: So Nick, around here every write kind of has their own little thing. Eno has beer, Jeff has volcanoes, Carson has poetry and overall weirdness. What’s your forte outside of baseball?

8:06	Nick Stellini: Well I’m a recovering film major, so there’s that. I know a lot about fencing from doing it in high school, and still dabble occasionally. I also probably play far too much Destiny on PlayStation.

8:06	Neil Weinberg: People always ask Dave personal finance questions.

8:07	Sandahl Tahn: The trend for this postseason has been heavy reliance on your best bullpen arms. Do you expect the regular season to start to trend this way?

8:07	Neil Weinberg: I don’t think so. Guys will burn out. But I think the inning rigidity will loosen

8:07	Joseph: Nick, do you blink more than Dave Cameron?

8:07	Neil Weinberg: Everyone blinks more than Dave.

8:08	Mayor McCheese: whats you stance on ken rosenthall’s bow tie

8:08	Nick Stellini: Ken’s bowties are categorically good

8:08	Neil Weinberg: Suicide prevention charity tonight! Excellent cause. Ken is good.

8:09	Leon Powalski: How do people from NJ pick which MLB team to root for?

8:09	Nick Stellini: Well this is as good a time as any to admit I was raised to be a soulless evil Yankees fan.

8:09	Nick Stellini: You may proceed to berate me.

8:10	sweet swinging: New guy is dead to me already

8:10	Nick Stellini: Hooray!

8:10	CamdenWarehouse: Do the indians really not have a real RF to put out there? Lonnie is rough

8:11	Neil Weinberg: Metrics think he’s fine. Even if that’s a bit generous, I don’t think he’s any kind of disaster

8:11	PJ: Let’s all just appreciate Lackey for a moment. How many PITCHERS from 2002 are still puttering around? How many players period?

8:12	Nick Stellini: Big Bart!

8:12	Neil Weinberg: He can probably do this forever. 2-3 WAR for like 15 more years.

8:12	Bro Charboneau: That’s part of missing Brantley, right?

8:13	Neil Weinberg: They’re starting Rajai Davis against a RHP tonight. Brantley has a lot of place to play on this roster.

8:13	Nick Stellini: Brantley would be playing left, I would imagine

8:13	Sandahl Tahn: 95 mph, wow

8:13	Mr. Jones: Lackey throws 95?

8:14	The Hamburglar: Lindor has really impressed me with his plate discipline this post season. Hard to believe he was supposed to be a glove only player

8:15	Nick Stellini: Was that ever really the book on Lindor? The glove was obviously always the standout tool but I thought the report was that he could hit too.

8:15	Nick Stellini: I don’t think anybody saw him hitting third, to be fair.

8:16	Neil Weinberg: I think the surprise was how quickly the bat showed up

8:16	Seth Moko: Sometimes you see guys throwing a few mph faster at start of big game like this – “amped up”… what is harmed by that? Control? Spin rate? Something else?

8:16	Nick Stellini: Wow Neil got a poop emoji reaction before I did

8:17	Neil Weinberg: Usually command. Although I have no idea about spin rate. That’s one to file away.

8:18	The Goat: Announcers say “Lackey one of the few pitchers better in the postseason than in the regular season and it’s not a small sample size.” Is this statement as dumb as I think it is?

8:18	Neil Weinberg: I can’t think of anything that would make someone’s true talent better in the postseason than the regular season. Anyone have any ideas?

8:18	Neil Weinberg: Obviously some people pitch better, but it’s better competition and if you have the “Will” to pitch better, maybe do it during the entire season

8:19	Nick Stellini: There are guys who have found another gear in the playoffs before, right? My mind goes to Syndergaard last year. But, of course, he stayed in that gear for this season.

8:20	Neil Weinberg: Sorry about the emojis. You can’t turn them off once the chat goes live. Please try to refrain from using them if you can.

8:21	Chris: How can we not mention Bumgarner when talking about guys finding another gear in the playoffs?

8:21	Neil Weinberg: Bumgarner is also awesome in the regular season!

8:22	Stevil: The playoffs bring out the best of the best. Nobody talks about the possibility of players “smelling” victory and craving it more, but I’m convinced there should be a stat for sense of smell and taste.

8:22	Nick Stellini: Tastebuds Above Replacement

8:22	Neil Weinberg: Emoji update! You can hide them if they bother you.

8:22	Neil Weinberg: Click the like human looking icon

8:23	Dock Ellis: What’s worse: Lonnie Chisenhall’s real name is Lonald, or Chipper Jones’ real name is Larry?

8:23	Neil Weinberg: I refuse to believe the Lonald thing is real.

8:24	Nick Stellini: Baseball Ref says his given name is Lonnie

8:24	Nick Stellini: But that could be a product of the Vast Lonald Conspiracy

8:24	Neil Weinberg: I love that Rizzo, huge power hitter, sometimes chokes up on the bat

8:26	Neil Weinberg: Interesting tidbit from Kluber on the broadcast. Said last time on short rest his legs felt tired moreso than his arm

8:27	Nick Stellini: Smh Kluber skips leg day

8:27	Neil Weinberg: I wonder if that’s normal?

8:27	Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: So can we talk about Kluber?

8:27	ChatzMcGee: Obvious statement alert(!): Carrasco or healthier Salazar would’ve been huge, think I would’ve favoured the Indians if they had them. You guys?

8:28	Neil Weinberg: Yeah, that would have been huge. The fact that Cleveland made it this far without them is impressive

8:28	Nick Stellini: It certainly would’ve made it much closer on paper, but it would also have given Cleveland two Kluber games instead of three.

8:28	Nick Stellini: It’s only the first inning and maybe he settles down, so we shall see

8:28	things that fly: Another hot take alert: Fowler handsomer than Bryant, Russell, and Heyward.

8:28	Neil Weinberg: No Nick we have to overreact

8:28	Nick Stellini: I support this take

8:29	Neil Weinberg: Handsomeness is a matter of taste.

8:29	Kevin: Hot takes or gtfo

8:29	Nick Stellini: This guy gets it

8:29	Front-Door Sinker: Kenley Jansen said the same thing about his legs after that 51-pitch outing against the Nationals.

8:29	Nick Stellini: First baseman SBs are objectively better than non-first baseman SBs

8:29	Neil Weinberg: Rizzo stole three bases in the regular season. Two this postseason!

8:29	Nick Stellini: They are only beat by catcher SBs

8:29	Neil Weinberg: 17 last year!

8:30	Neil Weinberg: Previous high of 6!

8:30	Neil Weinberg: What!

8:30	Nick Stellini: I wrote about Rizzo’s steals last year at BtBS

8:30	Nick Stellini: He was choosing his chances wisely. Often was stealing on the pitcher

8:30	Neil Weinberg: Yes…of course. I remembered that.

8:30	Nick Stellini: That was fairly early in the year, though, so I don’t know if the trend continued.

8:30	Nick Stellini: That’s an article idea to file away for the offseason

8:31	5 Run Homer: shameless plug from Nick

8:31	Russ: Goldschmidt has made first baseman steals blasé.

8:31	Nick Stellini: I am nothing but shameless

8:31	The Hamburglar: Jonah Keri had a great interview with Kenny Lofton the other day in which Lofton said that the catcher isnt nearly as relevant in a stolen base than the pitcher. I think he put it at 80 pitcher, 20 catcher

8:31	Neil Weinberg: This is basically right. Max Weinstein studied this some. So have the BP stats people

8:32	Theo: Unless that catcher is David Ross

8:32	Neil Weinberg: Plug! Hardball Times Annual has a chapter from me all about back picks

8:33	Nick Stellini: Is it about how Piazza handled his obviously insidious backne?

8:33	Neil Weinberg: Nicolas.

8:34	Nick Stellini: “With his ace on the mound, he wanted his best defense out there.”

8:34	5 Run Homer: How much does the Hardball Times Annual cost?

8:34	Neil Weinberg: Usually around $16

8:34	Russ: This topic was king of addressed through a fantasy lens in June: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/streaming-for-stolen-bases-by-pitcher/

8:34	Nick Stellini: Wouldn’t you theoretically want a better defense behind a worse pitcher, or am I being dumb?

8:34	Neil Weinberg: Oh my

8:34	Nick Stellini: Smooth

8:34	Neil Weinberg: (guitar riff)

8:35	Kevin: Man it’s a hot one

8:35	Mr. Jones: Oye como va

8:36	Neil Weinberg: Need to locate August’s “here’s why Santana is good” list

8:36	Nick Stellini: 1. Dingers

8:36	Bro Charboneau: Lackey’s got to change his evil ways.

8:36	Ryan: To think: Casey Blake for Carlos Santana.

8:37	Neil Weinberg: Casey Blake destroy the Tigers (my favorite team) and then Cleveland traded him for a great player.

8:37	Nick Stellini: Joe Buck said “tarpaulin” and he is my hero

8:37	Jon: That throw was too high

8:38	Mike: August on Carlos Santana: August Fagerstrom @AugustFG_ I’ve created a Carlos Santana Narrative Buster. Your one-stop shop for shooting down all bad Carlos Santana takes: 23 Feb 2016

8:40	Neil Weinberg: What is this “nobody gave them a chance” narrative?

8:40	xxx: Is Brantley’s career already over?

8:40	Neil Weinberg: Gosh, that’s a sad thought

8:40	Nick Stellini: Way, way too soon to tell.

8:41	DaveB: See Sizemore, Grady and Hafner, Travis

8:41	Nick Stellini: How dare you speak poorly of Former Yankees Great Travis Hafner

8:41	Minty: How long until the All-Star game no longer matters?

8:41

Russ:

8:42	Nick Stellini: Incoming Kluber dinger

8:42	Neil Weinberg: Would he smile?

8:42	Nick Stellini: Would Kluber smile after a dinger? Yes (40.7% \| 46 votes) No (59.2% \| 67 votes) Total Votes: 113

8:43	Ryan: Too early to PH Kluber?

8:43	Ryan: He’s gonna Klub it

8:43	Neil Weinberg: Yes

8:44	Nick Stellini: I love to PH for my ace in the second inning, personally

8:44	Neil Weinberg: Wow

8:44	Neil Weinberg: can’t throw a strike to the pitcher

8:44	Neil Weinberg: NEVER SWING 3-1

8:44	Neil Weinberg: (slight exaggeration)

8:45	Nick Stellini: He’s getting decent pitches to hit.

8:45	Nick Stellini: If he actually somehow goes deep do I get Dave’s job for being Nostradamus?

8:45	hurricanexyz: oh my god, pitchers swinging when ahead in the count infuriates me so much. if I were a manager I would give my pitchers absolute take signs on like 100% of 3-1 counts

8:45	Neil Weinberg: I wrote a thing last year that said basically everyone should take on 3-1 much more than they do. Pitchers should never swing imo on 3-1

8:46	Neil Weinberg: Oh hell yes Kluber infield hit

8:46	Nick Stellini: Let’s get weird

8:46	Moldy Pumkin: How many times has Kluber ever gone yard?

8:46	Neil Weinberg: Never had a professional HR

8:46	The Hamburglar: Why is that? Are strikes rarely thrown on 3-1 or something?

8:47	Neil Weinberg: Basically, the odds of a walk are high enough that it’s worth risking dropping into a 3-2 count. It’s not automatic, but guys swing way too much on 3-1 relative to 3-0

8:48	Neil Weinberg: I like the idea of Cleveland winning the game because of that Kluber AB

8:49	Nick Stellini: Also 3-1 is generally considered a “hitter’s count” where you should swing, so I would totally never throw a 3-1 fastball. I also walked in four runs the one time I pitched in little league so never listen to me.

8:49	Neil Weinberg: Jeff Paternostro says 4.45 for Kluber down the line

8:50	Mike: Baseball is weird, and the best

8:50	hurricanexyz: and they probably swing too little 3-0, right? 3-1 and 3-0 behavior should converge on each other a little bit

8:51	Neil Weinberg: Let me find the link. That’s basically how I got interested in this

8:51	Neil Weinberg: http://www.hardballtimes.com/should-one-strike-make-this-much-difference/

8:51	Noah: We all know Cleveland is destined to win this game then blow a 3-1 lead, right?

8:52	5 Run Homer: Is that fast?

8:52	Neil Weinberg: I don’t know the exact numbers, but that’s certainly fast for a pitcher

8:52	Nick Stellini: I would die happy if Cleveland blew a 3-1 lead in the World Series

8:52	Nick Stellini: I would simply die of laughter

8:53	CSW: Is there any adjustment for game theory? To keep pitcher honest?

8:53	Neil Weinberg: Yeah, you can’t literally never swing. I was exaggerating a bit.

8:53	The Hamburglar: Kluber was all state track in college at Stetson University

8:54	Nick Stellini: Heyward is destined to hit a walk-off bomb in game seven, right?

8:54	Neil Weinberg: I hope so

8:54	Neil Weinberg: I mean…I don’t

8:54	Neil Weinberg: But I want him to do well

8:54	The Hamburglar: I have no proof on the track thing, but itd be cool if he was

8:55	The Hamburglar: If Heyward hits a walk off bomb in Cleveland, we’ve got a problem

8:55	Neil Weinberg: FACT CHECK: We did not fact check this

8:55	Brian: Very hard to hit walk off as visiting player

8:55	ChatzMcGee: Most pointless StatCast ever?

8:55	Neil Weinberg: Pretty close

8:55	Neil Weinberg: looks out

8:56	Sgt. Pepper: He looked safe but I might be baez

8:56	Nick Stellini: I would not complain if Statcast was used in broadcasts 80% less often

8:57	Neil Weinberg: To be fair, getting stuff on the air is a pretty involved process. I imagine a lot of the early stuff are test runs.

8:57	Neil Weinberg: I have a friend who does graphics for one of the RSNs. Hard to get things on air as quickly as you need to for it to be relevant

8:59	Neil Weinberg: In what inning does Andrew Miller enter the game? 4 (0.7% \| 1 vote) 5 (18.2% \| 23 votes) 6 (53.1% \| 67 votes) 7+ (27.7% \| 35 votes) Total Votes: 126

9:00

Grorm Finkelstein: Neil, since you’re doing a chat finally, can we yell at you for your emergency catcher notion, or is that not fair? My position is I don’t utterly hate having a 26th roster spot that has to be a catcher but can’t be used barring injury, like the now defunct 3rd quarterback rule in football, but I truly abhor the notion of an automatic out. But I thought the much more important point you made was that managers are too cautious about using their 2nd catcher relative to the actual risk, and that point suggests that your emergency catcher idea isn’t necessary at all–we just need better managing and less risk-aversion.

9:00	Neil Weinberg: This doesn’t seem like yelling!

9:00	Neil Weinberg: I would be cool with better managers too. I also like bullpen catchers and this seemed fun.

9:01	Guest: Does Lackey make it to the 4th?

9:02	Nick Stellini: Mark Montgomery will be an important player in this game

9:02	Neil Weinberg: I think he’s due up next, right?

9:02	Joe: You mean Mike Montgomery?

9:02	Nick Stellini: This is what happens when I read Yankees prospect blogs for years

9:02	Nick Stellini: Cripes

9:03	Neil Weinberg: Assume Lackey gets PH next inning

9:03	T: If the bullpen catcher comes in can he have a bullpen cart?

9:04	Neil Weinberg: Bullpen cart should come back

9:04	Nick Stellini: Yeah he can’t stay in this game

9:04	5 Run Homer: Lackey isn’t looking all that hot

9:04	Johnny Baseball : John Lackey is the greatest

9:04	Neil Weinberg: Conflicting opinions

9:04	Leon Powalski: I think they should just let Lackey get himself tossed instead of making a pitching change

9:04	Neil Weinberg: Oh yes please

9:05	Nick Stellini: There’s some #strategy there

9:05	Nick Stellini: The replacement would get as long as he needs to warm up, right?

9:05	Neil Weinberg: I think that’s just injury? But I’m not sure about it

9:06	Grorm Finkelstein: I’m listening to the radio broadcast–does Lackey have a legitimate beef about umpiring?

9:07	Neil Weinberg: Zone seems a little tight?

9:08	Neil Weinberg: BACK PICK ATTEMPT

9:08	Nick Stellini: The Cubs love them some back picks

9:08	Neil Weinberg: back pickiest team in mlb

9:08	Deece: Now im interested in what happens if the cubs season litterally depends on Lester having to pick someone off in game 5

9:09	Neil Weinberg: Excited for this

9:09	Nick Stellini: The takes will kill us all

9:09	Ryan W: Is there any research on how often back picks work?

9:09	Neil Weinberg: I wrote about this for the upcoming THT annual

9:09	Slammin Sammy: “Strike” is the new “catch” right? Totally unclear

9:09	Nick Stellini: But did Lackey make a football move?

9:09	Neil Weinberg: I will have my full data set out for the public when the book comes out

9:10	Bro Charboneau: I’m expecting a crucial errant back pick to reinforce the curse narrative.

9:10	Neil Weinberg: Assume Lackey gets PH here?

9:12	Seth Moko: What’s the leverage on leading off an inning?

9:12	Neil Weinberg: About average, or a touch below usually

9:12	Nick Stellini: Oh, Joe.

9:12	Neil Weinberg: Guess not!

9:13	Nick Stellini: This is a very bad decision.

9:13

Grorm Finkelstein: Finally found it–the rules don’t seem to distinguish explicitly between ejection and injury: “If a sudden emergency causes a pitcher to be summoned into the game without any opportunity to warm up, the umpire-in-chief shall allow him as many pitches as the umpire deems necessary.” Rule 5.07 (b)

9:13	Neil Weinberg: I don’t get letting him hit. He has to have a short leash next inning

9:14	Nick Stellini: Maddon makes some…. interesting in-game choices.

9:15	Neil Weinberg: It’s not so much that you let him hit there, it’s that you’re letting him hit when he does not appear to have much left

9:16	Nick Stellini: Right.

9:16	Leon Powalski: Has Dex been getting killed inside like this all year?

9:17	Nick Stellini: Neil should Bryant swing here?

9:17	Neil Weinberg: I remember noticing something about him on inside pitches like two months ago but I don’t recall if it was good or bad

9:17	Neil Weinberg: DONT SWING

9:17	Nick Stellini: Damnit, Sparkles.

9:17	Jon: I know managing ultimately only moves the needle a few percentage points, but do you think Francona has had one of the best managed postseasons ever?

9:18	Neil Weinberg: I think some of this is recency bias, but Francona has done very well relative to managers of the last five or so years at least

9:19	Nick Stellini: We’ve had a very fun strike zone this series

9:19	Neil Weinberg: what if it’s a false flag strike zone to warm people to the idea of robot umps

9:19	Neil Weinberg: I am not serious fyi

9:19	Professor Ross Eforp: My guess is that Maddon wants to sneak another inning out of Lackey and then double swich for somebody down in the order (hint, Heyward).

9:19	Nick Stellini: So the ball out over the plate isn’t a strike, but the slider inside is.

9:20	Neil Weinberg: I think this is probably true. Too cute by half imo. Something Ausmus would do

9:20	Neil Weinberg: Rizzo HBP well I never

9:20	Norm had an anal prolapse: Is he trying to cancel out Hirschbeck? That’s not how this works.. that’s not how any of this works.

9:20	Nick Stellini: Who is the next Ben Zobrist? Kris Bryant (7.4% \| 8 votes) Javy Baez (22.4% \| 24 votes) Ben Zobrist (70.0% \| 75 votes) Total Votes: 107

9:21	Jon: Has there been a lot of study of individual umpire ball/strike tendencies?

9:21	Neil Weinberg: Yes. Jon Roegele has done some stuff on this. Not sure if it’s fully published or not.

9:22	PJ: Does short-rest, game 7 plans have Kluber’s pitch ceiling below 90?

9:22	Nick Stellini: I think you leave him in as long as you can

9:22	Nick Stellini: It’s Game 7. Every out is a high leverage out.

9:22	Neil Weinberg: I would think Kluber is on a pitch count. Bet Francona hoping for a PH situation that makes the call for him

9:22	Nick Stellini: Relatively speaking, that is.

9:23	Neil Weinberg: I think he means for tonights game

9:23	Nick Stellini: Ahhhhhh

9:23	Nick Stellini: Then yes

9:23	Ryan W: Couldn’t you argue he made no attempt to get out of the way? Isn’t that part of the rule? No ump would call it in the world series but still

9:23	Neil Weinberg: This never gets called. Think I’ve seen it once in my entire life

9:23	Professor Ross Eforp: Jose Ramirez is the next Ben Zobrist.

9:23	Nick Stellini: Now this is a take.

9:23	Neil Weinberg: You don’t have much time, to be fair.

9:23	Nick Stellini: I have to look at Ramirez’s defensive metrics but it’s intriguing.

9:24	Colin: Any idea what Perez’s framing numbers are? I don’t watch many Indians games but he doesn’t seem to have great hands?

9:24	Neil Weinberg: Perez graded out as a very good framer

9:25	DaveB: Zobrist harder than typical to strike out?

9:26	Neil Weinberg: Yes, much harder than average

9:27	Nick Stellini: Hey, this Kluber guy might be good!

9:27	Neil Weinberg: (thinking emoji)

9:28	Ryan W: If Kluber comes up this inning do you PH or ride him out? Gotta keep him in right?

9:28	Nick Stellini: Absolutely

9:28	Neil Weinberg: On full rest, he stays in. Not sure about short rest, depends how he feels stamina-wise

9:29	Nick Stellini: So, Travis Wood is warming up right now. If Maddon is going to have a reliever ready to jump in at a moment’s notice, why keep Lackey in?

9:29	Nick Stellini: Such a silly choice.

9:29	Neil Weinberg: No idea. Ausmusian move.

9:29	John: In a 50 game series between these two teams, what do the results look like? I’ll take Cubs 30-20.

9:29	Neil Weinberg: Hold on. Gonna do math on this

9:29	Hareeb al-Saq: You’re going to trust Kluber to be honest Nick?

9:30	Nick Stellini: Absolutely. He doesn’t have his best stuff but he doesn’t look bad by any stretch either.

9:31	Nick Stellini: Why would you bunt there?

9:31	Nick Stellini: Free outs for a struggling pitcher!

9:31	Neil Weinberg: I got basically exactly 30-20 for the Cubs based on 2016 performance

9:31	Professor Ross Eforp: Alternative theory on Kluber usage. Ride him until he can no longer be ridden tonight and fully commit to a bullpen game tomorrow.

9:32	Neil Weinberg: If you go too hard tonight he might not be very good for G7. And he’s probably not equipped to pitch deep tonight. But speculating.

9:33	Neil Weinberg: Would either team object to both teams using DH tomorrow? Cleveland would (25.0% \| 32 votes) Chicago would (18.7% \| 24 votes) Both would (9.3% \| 12 votes) Neither (46.8% \| 60 votes) Total Votes: 128

9:35	hurricanexyz: it would be interesting if you had the option for the two managers to stipulate rule changes like that by agreement

9:36	Nick Stellini: Requisite Eddie Vedder appearance! Drink!’

9:36	Mike: Is Contreras a good pitch framer, statistically? Everything he does is big back there, and it seems like that would have the opposite effect.

9:36	Neil Weinberg: BP says he was good in MLB this year, but his MiLB numbers aren’t good. Only about 3000 chances, so I’m not putting stock into the numbers yet for him

9:37	Bro Charboneau: Each team can bring back one player from their franchise’s past, in their prime, for the rest of the WS. Who would it be?

9:37	Neil Weinberg: Bob Feller? Greg Maddux?

9:37	Neil Weinberg: First two that came to mind

9:37	Nick Stellini: Junior Lake for the Cubs, obviously

9:38	Neil Weinberg: Can the Cubs choose 2015 Arrieta?

9:38	Matt L: Gotta be Ryan Theriot

9:39	Nick Stellini: Do we know that Bob Feller would be able to get modern hitters out?

9:39	Nick Stellini: Or, would guys like Ernie Banks be able to thrive against modern pitchers?

9:39	Neil Weinberg: NOT THE SPIRIT OF THE QUESTION STELLINI

9:39	Leon Powalski: If each team could pick each others, Jose Mesa and Alex Gonzalez

9:40	5 Run Homer: Is it wrong to be disappointed in Lindor for not making that play

9:40	Neil Weinberg: Tough play, I think you want him to make that more often than not, but I’m only mildly disappointed?

9:41	Neil Weinberg: Not a great jump, good thing he fouled that off

9:41	Nick Stellini: Vintage Javy Baez, yikes

9:41	Neil Weinberg: Perez throwing to first even when the inning is over is one of my new favorite things

9:42	5 Run Homer: Vasgersian just called a K a “punchie”. Don’t like it

9:42	Neil Weinberg: This is a thing. Tend to agree though

9:43	anonymous: Home Runs have such better nicknames than strikeouts

9:45	Nick Stellini: Another Inning of John Lackey: The Joe Maddon Story

9:45	5 Run Homer: Lackey in the 5th! Short leash?

9:46	Enlightening Round: stellini watch the movie “fastball” on Netflix….Feller was bringing it, he could get these guys out

9:46	Nick Stellini: I’ve seen it. Great doc! Highly recommended. Just a little skeptical of the calculations on the old pitchers at the end.

9:46	Neil Weinberg: He’s pitched just well enough the last inning plus to keep Maddon in the dugout. Managers hate taking the ball if the pitcher feels like they’re doing well

9:47	Brian: I don’t know if it’s the terrible perspective but the zone seems genuinely terrible tonight

9:47	Neil Weinberg: Our rendering (unofficial) says it’s been very tight http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2016-10-29&team=Cubs&dh=0&season=2016

9:49	Joe: Do you know which strike zone you use for that?

9:49	Neil Weinberg: I don’t. Should look at MLB and Brooks too.

9:49	Neil Weinberg: Let’s do that!

9:49	Neil Weinberg: Brooks http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/zoneTrack.php?month=10&day=29&year=2016&game=gid_2016_10_29_clemlb_chnmlb_1/&prevDate=1029

9:50	Neil Weinberg: MLB https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/gamefeed?game_pk=487634&type=home_pitchers&chart_view=pitch&chart_type=sbp&inning=&count=&batter_hand=&pitcher_hand=&filter=

9:50	Neil Weinberg: Seems to all line up. Not a great zone

9:50	Duke of Tralee: “Bryant has four errors this postseason [in 13+ games]”–that’s the only fact you know. How much does that tell you about his defensive performance: almost everything, a lot, a little, almost nothing?

9:50	Neil Weinberg: A little.

9:52	Scott: What’s the difference between the gray line and the green line in the win expectancy graph?

9:52	Neil Weinberg: Gray line factors in our pre-game odds as a starting point. Green line assumes equal teams.

9:53	Neil Weinberg: Not sure if camera person was fooled or the wind killed that

9:53	Nick Stellini: I think it was the wind. Yeesh.

9:53	Neil Weinberg: Statcast says .258 xBA

9:54	Nick Stellini: Hot take: Kris Bryant needs to get hits if the Cubs are going to win the World Series

9:56	Paul G.: When was the last complete game in World Series history?

9:56	Neil Weinberg: Last year. Cueto

9:59	David: Just out of interest because I don’t know this, can Kluber’s performance influence those who couldn’t choose CY Young wise or are votes cast already?

9:59	Neil Weinberg: Votes already submitted