2016 World Series Game 6 Live Blog
| 8:02 |
: Welcome to the Game 6 live blog!
|
| 8:02 |
: Eno Sarris and I will be your hosts tonight.
|
| 8:02 |
:
Who wins tonight?
Cubs (72.7% | 163 votes)
Indians (27.2% | 61 votes)
Total Votes: 224
|
| 8:02 |
:
How many innings does Andrew Miller go tonight?
1 (10.9% | 21 votes)
2 (48.6% | 93 votes)
3 (19.3% | 37 votes)
All of them (20.9% | 40 votes)
Total Votes: 191
|
| 8:03 |
:
How many innings does Aroldis Chapman go tonight?
1 (55.3% | 104 votes)
2 (40.4% | 76 votes)
3 (4.2% | 8 votes)
Total Votes: 188
|
| 8:03 |
: can miller go 4 innings tonight if he is averaging 10 to 12 pitches per inning?
|
| 8:03 |
: He’s already thrown 47 if I remember correctly!
|
| 8:04 |
: I would think with a game tomorrow, Francona won’t blow Miller out tonight.
|
| 8:04 |
: You can bring him back tomorrow if he goes 2-3. 4? Now you’re not sure you can get anything besides one batter from him tomorrow.
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| 8:05 |
: Does Lester see an inning tonight?
|
| 8:05 |
: No.
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| 8:05 |
: He goes 2-3 tomorrow.
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| 8:05 |
: I know everyone likes to buy into the “win today, figure out tomorrow then” idea, but the Cubs have to win two in a row.
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| 8:05 |
: Selling out tomorrow to win today isn’t the right strategy.
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| 8:06 |
: Are you guys surprised to see Schwarber hitting second tonight?
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| 8:06 |
: I thougt maybe he’d hit 4, but this breaks up the lefties more.
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| 8:06 |
: odds of a Joe West controversial call tonight?
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| 8:06 |
: very good
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| 8:07 |
: Miller goes 5-6-7, or 6-7-8, assuming the Indians have the lead.
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| 8:07 |
: I’d guess 6-7, Allen 8-9.
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| 8:07 |
: Then both available tomorrow.
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| 8:07 |
: tomlin for 2, otero for 1, then the trio for 2 apiece
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| 8:07 |
: yeah like this maybe.
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| 8:07 |
: They’ll get more than 2 from Tomlin unless he’s awful.
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| 8:07 |
: Why haven´t we seen Salazar?
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| 8:07 |
: He threw an inning in game 2, and was bad.
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| 8:08 |
: His injury history is pretty complicated, and he’s homer prone even when good, so not a great time for him.
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| 8:08 |
: I could see him throwing an inning tonight, maybe, if Tomlin only goes 3 or something.
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| 8:09 |
: But I don’t think they want to use him.
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| 8:09 |
: no 0 option for Miller?
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| 8:09 |
: Only way Miller doesn’t pitch tonight is if they’re down big early.
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| 8:09 |
: I’ll be the guy to ask: any more info on our soon to be departed friend August, who speaking for all readers, we’ll all miss
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| 8:09 |
: His employer asked him to not reveal where he’s going, so we’re going to respect that too.
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| 8:10 |
: Here we go!
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| 8:10 |
: will this chat feature ludes? we came for the ludes
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| 8:10 |
: (I’m riding shotgun)
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| 8:10 |
: First pitch fastball. Here come the curves.
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| 8:11 |
: So much for tight zone
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| 8:11 |
: It begins…with a called strike 6 inches outside.
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| 8:11 |
: Is it that hard for Fox to just put a little generic square where the zone should be?
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| 8:11 |
: That generic square is annoying.
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| 8:11 |
: They get yelled at if they do (not a great version of it, parallax issues, not necessarily altered for each batter height) and if they don’t, I guess.
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| 8:12 |
: Well they’re not really making him work early…
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| 8:12 |
: “It’s a good hitting and good pitching environment.”
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| 8:12 |
: Everyone’s happy!
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| 8:12 |
: I don’t mind the PitchTrax on the side though.
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| 8:12 |
: I prefer them have a K zone graphic next to the batter at all times
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| 8:13 |
: Tomlin working fast.
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| 8:13 |
: Welp.
|
| 8:13 |
: YESYESYESYESYES
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| 8:13 |
: Hit a curveball!
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| 8:13 |
: Good location there
|
| 8:13 |
: nice curve
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| 8:13 |
: Bryant!
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| 8:13 |
: That ball was smashed
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| 8:13 |
: not so nice curve
|
| 8:13 |
: That there was a hanger
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| 8:14 |
: I didn’t see that ball land
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| 8:14 |
: That’s the Tomlin we know and love
|
| 8:14 |
: 106.2 MPH exit velocity
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| 8:15 |
: It’s amazing how much better the Cubs hitters look when not facing Kluber, Miller, or Allen.
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| 8:15 |
: This is your 0-2 pitch?
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| 8:15 |
: Did they just try a pickoff while he was on the bag?
|
| 8:15 |
: .800+ expected BAs on both of those balls in play according to statcast. Tomlin is about a 1.25 pitch guy so I’m not sure how long he’ll last today.
|
| 8:16 |
: Am I the only one whose rooting interests are simply “GAME 7” ?
|
| 8:16 |
: nope
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| 8:16 |
: How short is the leash for tomlin?
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| 8:16 |
: I think they stick with him for a bit because they can’t destroy the pen today.
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| 8:16 |
: You have to win 1 of 2. You don’t have to win this one.
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| 8:16 |
: Crushing the pen today in a game you might lose anyway isn’t a great idea.
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| 8:17 |
: Who’s the long man for Cleveland?
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| 8:17 |
: They don’t really have one. Maybe Salzar?
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| 8:17 |
: Salazar.
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| 8:17 |
: Fangraphs writers root for game 7 because it pushes back their post-season articles one more day 😀
|
| 8:17 |
: You’re not not right.
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| 8:18 |
: Merritt not rostered?
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| 8:18 |
: Oh yeah, he’s around.
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| 8:18 |
: Defense!
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| 8:18 |
: Oh no
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| 8:18 |
: hahahahahahahahaha
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| 8:18 |
: Holy cow
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| 8:19 |
: I don’t think you can do that anymore?
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| 8:19 |
: Hah, after those smoked balls a 78 mph ball straight up in the air (xBA .158) drives one in.
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| 8:19 |
: Catcher was blocking the plate
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| 8:19 |
: Did he give Zobrist a path to the plate? Or am I misunderstanding the rule?
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| 8:20 |
: Looked like he wanted to slide
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| 8:20 |
: someone has to warming up right?
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| 8:21 |
: No, you have to get some innings from Tomlin tonight.
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| 8:21 |
: This isn’t a must-win for Cleveland.
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| 8:21 |
: If you lose, and you save Miller/Allen, well, you got a great chance tomorrow.
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| 8:21 |
:
@enosarris shouldn’t MLB have a “team error” for plays like that as that is NOT a double.
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| 8:21 |
: even with manship, mcallister, clevenger, merritt….
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| 8:21 |
: They aren’t better than Tomlin.
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| 8:21 |
: I know some pitchers that want the team error to exist haha.
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| 8:22 |
: Tomlin seems to be hanging some of these curveballs
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| 8:22 |
: Cubs need to keep adding on so they can save Chapman for multiple innings in Game 7
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| 8:22 |
: Difference between a hanging curve and a curve thrown in the zone for a called strike is super hard to discern.
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| 8:23 |
: I think a blowout is actually better for CLE than a close loss.
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| 8:23 |
: Why are they carrying all of those non-used pitchers instead of extra position players? No one worth adding to the roster?
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| 8:23 |
: No; they don’t have enough good position players as is.
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| 8:23 |
: Indians still need to be patient with Arrieta? Force him to walk guys?
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| 8:24 |
: Given his stuff, no real reason to help him get you out. Take until you have to swing.
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| 8:24 |
: Especially since the slider command hasn’t been there this year.
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| 8:24 |
: Dave, are you considering the psychological effect of a blowout on such shrinking violets as MLB players
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| 8:24 |
: They’d never get over it
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| 8:24 |
: Is August becoming a player or an owner?
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| 8:25 |
: Blew out his shoulder playing whiffleball with us so not that.
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| 8:25 |
: so best scenario for cubs is a 3-0 win from here? make indians use guys they may not otherwise?
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| 8:25 |
: Maybe more like 4-0 with a late add-on that lets them save Chapman.
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| 8:26 |
: A close game causes Cubs to use good arms — blow it out and play a close game tomorrow against double-short rest kluber
|
| 8:27 |
: Cubs get Lester as a reliever tomorrow. Saving pen not as necessary for them.
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| 8:27 |
: How big does the lead have to be in say, the 7th, that allows the Cubs to use Grimm and Edwards instead of Chapman/Rondon? 5? 6?
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| 8:27 |
: Rondon’s the mopup guy now.
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| 8:27 |
: But probably 5+
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| 8:28 |
: Do you agree with Rondon being the mopup guy now?
|
| 8:28 |
: He’s been atrocious since August. Hard to imagine he’s healthy.
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| 8:28 |
: Hasn’t been the same really since he came back from injury.
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| 8:28 |
: Any chance we see Montgomery tonight? Feel like there’s no scenario where he pitches tomorrow and he can eat innings.
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| 8:28 |
: Yeah, I think he’s reliever #1 out of the pen tonight.
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| 8:28 |
: Lester makes him irrelevant tomorrow.
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| 8:29 |
: Cubs bullpen depth chart right now behind Chapman is probably some combination of Edwards, Montgomery, and Strop, for those who don’t know. All 3 are usable, but you don’t have 100% confidence in any of them.
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| 8:29 |
: I bet we see Lackey tonight if it’s close-ish.
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| 8:29 |
: Y’all sound like you’re confident that Lester will be a lights-out reliever on short rest. Is that the case?
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| 8:30 |
: Not saying he’ll definitely be great, but pretty certain Maddon uses him.
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| 8:30 |
: Arrieta velo up.
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| 8:30 |
: Cutter is looking more 1-7 tonight
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| 8:30 |
: Haven’t seen many of the tight slider, yeah looks big.
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| 8:31 |
: There’s the Arrieta iffy command.
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| 8:31 |
: Uh what happened on those last two pitches? Totally yanked both of them! And tried to soften to 89 to get it in unless that was the cutter.
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| 8:32 |
: Smoltz is a stolen base afficianado.
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| 8:32 |
: Everyone always has to go.
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| 8:33 |
: Do you not send him here?
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| 8:33 |
: With 2 strikes, maybe.
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| 8:34 |
: But on 1 strike, no.
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| 8:34 |
: Contreras no subtlety on the frame.
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| 8:34 |
: John Smoltz has 6 career SBs, 3 in the postseason.
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| 8:34 |
: yasssss
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| 8:34 |
: Napoli missed one.
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| 8:34 |
: Are we in for a classic arrieta five-inning multiple-walk no hitter
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| 8:35 |
: It’s his thing now.
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| 8:35 |
: Arrieta’s command seems to just vanish at times, then come right back
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| 8:35 |
: It’s really weird.
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| 8:36 |
: You know how every celebrity from the thirties names like “James howe” Was really a Jewish guy names “Israel Horowitz” or something. For some reason I always think Mike Napoli is really from Belarus and his real name is like “Mikhail Napolovich” but he was afraid jewish stereotypes in regards to athleticism would have kept him off the diamond.
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| 8:37 |
: How many times are you guys going to see the movie Trolls?
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| 8:37 |
: I have Twitter; I see it everyday.
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| 8:37 |
: Maybe his command problem is about that throwing across the body thing. Baltimore tried to get Arrieta to simplify and get rid of that, and he beefed up and tried to just repeat it with Chicago. Maybe after some time, it really is hard to repeat.
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| 8:37 |
: Except Napoli is obviously Italian…?
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| 8:37 |
: Heyward almost got one.
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| 8:37 |
: Italians are good at baseball
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| 8:38 |
: We in for a classic taken first strike gold two obvious balls Baez at bat
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| 8:39 |
: He took one!
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| 8:39 |
: This chat has a suspicious lack of poop emoji’s.
|
| 8:39 |
: He wanted to swing so bad
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| 8:39 |
: I don’t think that feature is coming back.
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| 8:39 |
: What a play.
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| 8:39 |
: Man.
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| 8:39 |
: How does it help Arrieta to throw across his body? Shouldn’t that kill his power?
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| 8:39 |
: xBA on that baez ball was .065
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| 8:39 |
: Out
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| 8:40 |
: So much deception for Arrieta, you don’t see the ball. Adds movement too.
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| 8:40 |
: Wow great throw by Kipnis
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| 8:40 |
: Does the rise in shifting mean that second baseman have to be better fielders now?
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| 8:40 |
: Range matters less now for infielders.
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| 8:40 |
: Since positioning is helping them be in the right spot more often.
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| 8:41 |
: Hey where’s the pitcher’s spot?
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| 8:41 |
: Maybe the flip side of Erik’s question: does being a spray hitter carry more value in an era of extensive shifts?
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| 8:41 |
: Yep.
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| 8:42 |
: Range would matter more for third basemen though, since they play up the middle occasionally?
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| 8:42 |
: Probably more athleticism than range.
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| 8:42 |
: You don’t see guys in short right having to make side to side plays that often.
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| 8:43 |
: Hey Dave about a year ago you let me interview you for a school paper and I only got a B on it. Do we blame Eno for this shortcoming?
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| 8:43 |
: For all things, all the time.
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| 8:43 |
: Off topic but I’m gonna miss August on Fangraphs 🙁
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| 8:43 |
: We all are.
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| 8:44 |
: But I’m happy for him personally. He deserves this.
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| 8:44 |
: Don’t help him…
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| 8:44 |
: That AB is exactly what CLE can’t do.
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| 8:45 |
: Reminder: Tomorrow afternoon is Free Taco day for those of you who want diarrhea during Game 7
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| 8:45 |
: That guys jersey logo is somehow more offensive than the one the *ndians wear now!
|
| 8:45 |
: Wow the Indians logo used to be a lot worse
|
| 8:45 |
: Eddie Robinson looking incredible for 95
|
| 8:45 |
: What do you look for when saying Arrieta pitches across his body?
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| 8:46 |
: Will we ever learn what team August was hired by and what his job is, or will it always be classified?
|
| 8:46 |
: Does the follow through take him across his plant leg side to side or more along his plant leg. Arrieta comes around his plant leg.
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| 8:46 |
: At some point, some beat writer will see him around the stadium or something and it will come out.
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| 8:46 |
: Do beat writers know what August looks like?
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| 8:47 |
: Well he was one for a year so yeah.
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| 8:47 |
: Why is it classified? Seems weird.
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| 8:47 |
: I would say you’d have to ask them but well…
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| 8:48 |
: Tribe still clear favorite if it gets to tomorrow night?
|
| 8:48 |
: No
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| 8:48 |
: Maybe like 53/47 or something, but not clear favorite.
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| 8:48 |
: Late again (thankfully I got that parking pass) but only missed two innings. Can you fill me in on what’s happened? In haiku form please
|
| 8:48 |
: Cubs smoked some balls
Kris Bryant did hit the curve Arrieta gas |
| 8:48 |
: Isn’t it easier just to say that Arrieta steps towards third?
|
| 8:48 |
: okay that too
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| 8:49 |
: Is game to game momentum a thing?
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| 8:49 |
: No
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| 8:50 |
: Count your syllables Eno
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| 8:50 |
: Two syllables in smoked, right?
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| 8:50 |
: Now when I see the close up on Arrieta I now just think he has to fart. Thanks Eno.
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| 8:51 |
: I always pronounce it smoke-ed
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| 8:51 |
: but you have to pronounce the d even without the ‘e’ it’s SMOKE-D? no?
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| 8:52 |
: “have to pronounce the d” sounds like a song jack black would sing.
|
| 8:52 |
: No, Eno
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| 8:52 |
: Smokt, it’s smokt
|
| 8:52 |
: I think this is why we often have games like “Can Eno pronounce X’s name?”
|
| 8:52 |
: Welcome to the fangraphs grammar chat
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| 8:53 |
: Cubs could put this game away here.
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| 8:54 |
: Borderline pitch?
|
| 8:54 |
: Looked away to me.
|
| 8:54 |
: I’ve submitted like 5 real questions and my stupid mike napoli theory and the jack black thing are the only ones that are blue. You’re conditioning you’re readers to become carson.
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| 8:54 |
: Those two.
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| 8:54 |
: Do the Indians practice fly balls or are they improvising
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| 8:54 |
: what is naquin doing?
|
| 8:54 |
: That looked scary
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| 8:54 |
: They look like the outfielders in Major League.
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| 8:55 |
: That was a torn ACL waiting to happen
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| 8:56 |
: Naquin looking a bit rookie!
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| 8:56 |
: I would think you can bust Rizzo high and tight if he’s gonna lean out over the plate like that
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| 8:56 |
: He just takes the HBP.
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| 8:56 |
: I have no idea how much CF Naquin plays, but it looks like his judgment is questionable and Chisenhall knows it.
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| 8:57 |
: He’s a lousy CF.
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| 8:57 |
: At what point do you just pull naquin
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| 8:58 |
: They don’t have anyone better, really.
|
| 8:58 |
: That’s good hitting. Nothing wrong with that pitch.
|
| 8:59 |
: Fastballs in to Zobrist.
|
| 8:59 |
: Clearly a plan.
|
| 9:00 |
: That one didn’t get in enough.
|
| 9:00 |
: And he hit one!
|
| 9:00 |
: I have a deep appreciation for hitters who choke-up on the bat.
|
| 9:00 |
: Dan Otero time.
|
| 9:01 |
: How does this chat thing work? I have written about 5 questions in here and none of them have shown up in the chat.
|
| 9:01 |
: joey Votto, Barry Bonds, Anthony Rizzo.
|
| 9:01 |
: This is more of a live blog than a Q&A. We’ll answer some questions when we can, but this is more of a let’s-watch-the-game-together hangout.
|
| 9:01 |
: Zobrist has been so huge for the Cubs this postseason
|
| 9:02 |
: Andrew Miller only enters with a lead?
|
| 9:02 |
: They’ll put him in if its tied or maybe even down 1
|
| 9:02 |
: But they’re not using him if Chicago blows this open here.
|
| 9:03 |
: Using Tomlin and Bauer on short rest in a series definitely feels like it was doomed to failure.
|
| 9:03 |
: Carrasco/Salazar injuries mattered, even if they didn’t need them early.
|
| 9:03 |
: These commercials make the WBC seem super fun.
|
| 9:03 |
: It is!
|
| 9:03 |
: Do you guys actually pick and choose what goes through or is it an algorithm that looks for certain words to censure? That’s my basic question haha
|
| 9:03 |
: We’re picking them.
|
| 9:04 |
: How deep does a flyball need to be here to score Schwarber?
|
| 9:04 |
: Over the fence.
|
| 9:04 |
: would you call the WBC “lit” dave?
|
| 9:04 |
: Never
|
| 9:04 |
: Yeah, don’t ask questions, post absurd statements. Take it from a guy who’s 1 for 1 (taught eno how to pronounce smoked)
|
| 9:04 |
: Welp.
|
| 9:04 |
: I love Russell so much.
|
| 9:05 |
: Well then
|
| 9:05 |
: I love this.
|
| 9:05 |
: bears up by a TD!
|
| 9:05 |
: See y’all tomorrow.
|
| 9:05 |
: might get to bed early after all
|
| 9:05 |
: So Miller can hit the showers?
|
| 9:05 |
: Now we don’t get to see Miller, Chapman, or Allen. It’s like, why are we even watching?
|
| 9:05 |
: start managing for tomorrow
|
| 9:05 |
: Be interesting to see if Arrieta can go like 7-8 now.
|
| 9:05 |
: is kluber on 3 days rest after 81 pitches equivalent to him with a larger workload on normal rest? i.e. is there worry about his second go round on three days rest?
|
| 9:06 |
: Double short rest is an issue, 81 pitches or no. But if Miller/Allen don’t pitch today, only need ~4 from him tomorrow.
|
| 9:06 |
: I’m looking into this for ESPN right now and I’m looking at movement in short rest and in back to back games, and velocity, and so far I’ve seen an extra tick of velo gone on second short rest start.
|
| 9:06 |
: 108 MPH on the HR. Fastest ball hit tonight
|
| 9:07 |
: This is bad news because Maddon’s clearly going use like 10 pitchers tomorrow, right?
|
| 9:07 |
: I’d bet 3, maybe 4. Hendricks-Lester-Chapman would be ideal.
|
| 9:08 |
: Do we see Ryan Merritt tonight?
|
| 9:08 |
: Where did the breaking balls go tonight?
|
| 9:08 |
: Now it’s Tomlin’s for a while.
|
| 9:08 |
: Tomlin went away from it after Bryant hammered one.
|
| 9:08 |
: Tomlin is out, Eno.
|
| 9:08 |
: Thanks for paying attention!
|
| 9:08 |
: HAH
|
| 9:08 |
: I’m sticking with this game simply because in a week I’ll be sad about the lack of baseball available to watch.
|
| 9:08 |
: Oh yeah Otero. Shoot he was terrible in Oakland.
|
| 9:08 |
: Sorry if someone already asked this, but do you pull Arrieta early now for Game 7 bullpen?
|
| 9:09 |
: Nope.
|
| 9:09 |
: 0 day rest is not worth it, especially with better options.
|
| 9:09 |
: Russell cementing himself as most attractive Cub :^)
|
| 9:09 |
: You and me on an island.
|
| 9:10 |
: Arrieta’s job is now to save the rest of the bullpen
|
| 9:10 |
: Yup.
|
| 9:10 |
: So is Chicago’s win expectancy now >99%
|
| 9:10 |
: So who’s the sacrificial lamb for Francona? Can McAllister eat 4 or 5 innings?
|
| 9:10 |
: Merritt, probably.
|
| 9:11 |
: Who’s got chat duties tomorrow, Dave?
|
| 9:11 |
: Jeff.
|
| 9:11 |
: is there a clear MVP for either side as of now?
|
| 9:11 |
: Imagine paying a few grand for tickets tonight
|
| 9:12 |
: Kluber for CLE
|
| 9:12 |
: Naquin for CHI
|
| 9:12 |
: Is there any argument that doesn’t rely on the hindsight of how badly it played out for having gone to Ryan Merritt to start Game 5/Game 6?
|
| 9:12 |
: No
|
| 9:12 |
: Yikes.
|
| 9:13 |
: Naquin is complete garbage.
|
| 9:13 |
: He was great for CLE this year.
|
| 9:13 |
: But he’s got some flaws.
|
| 9:13 |
: Eno, can you look into spin rate on short rest, too? Kershaw’s nonexistent curve ball in NLCS #6 made me wonder…
|
| 9:13 |
: Tiny tiny sample
|
| 9:13 |
: Arrieta needs to turn in to strike throwing arrietta to eat some innings
|
| 9:14 |
: This is one of those times when it shows that pitchers can’t really throw it where they want whenever they want.
|
| 9:14 |
: Up 7-0, should just be pounding strikes.
|
| 9:14 |
: So I assume Cleveland just doesn’t have bars to watch games based on the crowds they have outside
|
| 9:15 |
: It’s 70 there; more fun to be outside.
|
| 9:15 |
: Cleveland has a great bar scene
|
| 9:15 |
: would CG shutout be ideal from jake here?
|
| 9:15 |
: Well, yeah.
|
| 9:15 |
: Also, the Cavs game JUST ended. So thats why its extra crowded
|
| 9:16 |
: I know pitching to contact is generally stupid, but shouldn’t arrieta do so to limit his pitch count so he can pitch longer?
|
| 9:16 |
: Well you have to pitch to weak enough contact that you don’t give up hits, because hits don’t help your pitch count.
|
| 9:16 |
: Which is a big problem with the contact thing to begin with.
|
| 9:17 |
: If Jake were lifted after ~40 pitches could he be available tomorrow?
|
| 9:17 |
: Not worth it.
|
| 9:17 |
: Better to have the guys who don’t have to pitch today because he goes long available instead.
|
| 9:17 |
: Jake Arrietta
Pound them over the plate please. No need to paint now. |
| 9:18 |
: To play devil’s advocate, Naquin probably got reamed for not calling for it in the first inning, so I see him in the third waving his arms and screaming and Chisenhall just catches it. Some fault for Chisenhall too, I would think.
|
| 9:18 |
: How can that be? Those pitches are worse than him. Use the worse ones when leading by 7.
|
| 9:18 |
: The worse ones wouldn’t be pitching on 0 days rest tomorrow.
|
| 9:18 |
: And here’s Salazar as long man.
|
| 9:19 |
: Interesting relief change here
|
| 9:19 |
: We got our innings soak.
|
| 9:19 |
: Maybe.
|
| 9:19 |
: 7 pitches in. Baez is looking much better than he has this series
|
| 9:20 |
: Hah.
|
| 9:20 |
: Baez is awful right now.
|
| 9:20 |
: You had to say something!
|
| 9:20 |
: I said 7. I said nothing about 9 pitches.
|
| 9:21 |
: could we see Lackey in game 7?
|
| 9:21 |
: Yeah, if Arrieta can carry most of this game, could add him to the mix tomorrow.
|
| 9:21 |
: i don’t think the cubs want to see lackey in game 7
|
| 9:21 |
: Lackey is good.
|
| 9:21 |
: How much do you think Lester could throw tomorrow?
|
| 9:22 |
: 2-3.
|
| 9:22 |
: Lester over Lackey though, right?
|
| 9:22 |
: Sure, but lets you pull Hendricks earlier if need be. Could go Hendricks-Some RP to get out of a jam-Lester-Lackey-Chapman
|
| 9:23 |
: Hendricks for 5-6, Lester for 2, Chapman for 1-2?
|
| 9:23 |
: They’d love that, but I doubt Hendricks goes 5-6.
|
| 9:23 |
: In a Game 7, you have guys ready to come in at any rally.
|
| 9:24 |
: Salazar looks good so far. Makes you wonder if starting him might have been a better strategy than Tomlin, injury issues notwithstanding.
|
| 9:24 |
: Hendricks goes 71/3/2/0/0/6.
|
| 9:24 |
: I will wager whatever you want that Hendricks doesn’t go 7+
|
| 9:24 |
: The Cubs just don’t trust Rondon, Strop or Wood at all, do they?
|
| 9:25 |
: Rondon is almost definitely hurt, Strop probably is.
|
| 9:26 |
: Wood evolved into montgomery
|
| 9:26 |
: So it’s kind of amazing each team is carrying like 7 relievers but each team also only trusts three of them? Seems like an inefficient use of roster space, no?
|
| 9:27 |
: With so many iffy starters, CLE had to carry lots of arms in case it all went badly.
|
| 9:27 |
: Kipnis
|
| 9:27 |
: There goes no no hope, game even more boring now
|
| 9:27 |
: If Rondon is hurt why is he on the roster? A non injured reliever would be more productive wouldn’t it?
|
| 9:28 |
: Hurt might be too strong a word. But he’s definitely not 100%.
|
| 9:28 |
: He’s not necessarily telling people he’s hurt. It’s that hurt/injured thing.
|
| 9:28 |
: “are you hurt or are you injured”
|
| 9:29 |
: It’s hard to tell when he still touching 98
|
| 9:30 |
: Rondon’s slider never came back after the injury.
|
| 9:30 |
: How many runs would Arrieta have to give up over the next few innings to get pulled? I’d say 3.
|
| 9:30 |
: I’d say 2 but still in trouble.
|
| 9:30 |
: If they get a few and load the bases, they won’t leave him out ther to let it get close.
|
| 9:31 |
: a 98 fasball can still be a roogy right?
|
| 9:31 |
: Not if it isn’t moving
|
| 9:31 |
: Guys are hitting ~.390 against him since August.
|
| 9:31 |
: 7-1
|
| 9:32 |
: And the comeback begins…
|
| 9:32 |
: I thought the beauty of chapman’s fastball was that it’s so straight
|
| 9:32 |
: Time for a mound visit to slow the game down
|
| 9:32 |
: Super straight is different from normal. I’d say ‘straight’ is actually ‘average.’
|
| 9:33 |
: What’s your leash on Arrieta looking like right now?
|
| 9:33 |
: I’d let him try to work through this.
|
| 9:33 |
: You want length from him if you can get it.
|
| 9:33 |
: Heyward can still play D.
|
| 9:33 |
: heyward good
|
| 9:33 |
: And that’s what Heyward can do, even if he’s not hitting
|
| 9:33 |
: jason heyward just bounced off the ground
|
| 9:34 |
: Love that 2 handed grab
|
| 9:34 |
: If none of them are used tonight, is there any way CLE could get six innings out of Miller/Allen/Shaw? Is 2 IP each just crazy?
|
| 9:34 |
: If they don’t pitch tonight, bet it’s Kluber-Miller-Allen for first 9-10 innings, with everyone else saved for extras.
|
| 9:34 |
: Amazing how his command just vanishes.
|
| 9:36 |
: Defense is a lot tougher to slump at than offense
|
| 9:36 |
: passed ball
|
| 9:36 |
: Seems more straight forward, built on athleticism, if you’re healthy, maybe.
|
| 9:36 |
: Crossed up on that?
|
| 9:37 |
: Don’t have to groove one here.
|
| 9:37 |
: Don’t give up 2 runs because you’re afraid to walk Crisp.
|
| 9:37 |
: Yea, walk him
|
| 9:38 |
: Tyler naquin isn’t the hero we want, he’s the hero we deserve
|
| 9:38 |
: This is probably the most nervous fans of a team with a six run lead have ever been
|
| 9:38 |
: Travis Wood is good
So good they should put him in Put him in you win |
| 9:38 |
: Naquin getting ready to cement his WS MVP resume for the Cubs
|
| 9:38 |
: And now the zone expands
|
| 9:39 |
: Three fastballs right by Naquin
|
| 9:39 |
: well then
|
| 9:40 |
: Tyler Naquin there’s only one word to describe you
|
| 9:40 |
: Let’s thank Tyler Naquin for making this game one-sided
|
| 9:40 |
: That felt like the Indians last chance
|
| 9:40 |
: My haiku beats you
I perceive a contest where None has been proposed. |
| 9:42 |
: So many political ads
|
| 9:42 |
: I live in California, so none.
|
| 9:43 |
: No political ads? In LA there have been non stop proposition adds and a Trump add or two
|
| 9:43 |
: Jesus try get more and more arcane with these stats
|
| 9:43 |
: You guys must be more politically diverse than NoCal.
|
| 9:44 |
: Stupid throw. A mistake would have sent Bryant to second w no chance of throwing him out
|
| 9:44 |
: “He’s heating up” (NBA Jam voice)
|
| 9:44 |
: Add-on runs!
|
| 9:44 |
: Which sounds weird up 6
|
| 9:44 |
: But they can’t hurt.
|
| 9:44 |
: Smh Cubs running up the score
|
| 9:44 |
: Man this Kris is guy pretty good. He reminds me of myself when i was young
|
| 9:45 |
: That was an awful haiku Dave.
|
| 9:45 |
: The more pitches the Indians relievers throw, the more arms they either completely exhaust, or bring in. Score as many as possible.
|
| 9:46 |
: Has there been any game in the history of baseball where “score as many as possible” wasn’t the plan?
|
| 9:47 |
: what do ya say jose
|
| 9:47 |
: wtf was that sound guy up to?
|
| 9:47 |
: Bad look. Guy working the game tries to barehand a ball in play.
|
| 9:47 |
: The games Pete rose was throwing?
|
| 9:47 |
: Microphone guy… self defense, or world-series-ball-chance-grab?
|
| 9:47 |
: Defense. It’s not so hard to get like a BP ball at a game, even World Series.
|
| 9:48 |
: Getting a world series ball is nothing compared to that mic guy getting more freelance jobs of this level
|
| 9:48 |
: Sound guy trying to protect some expensive-ass equipment
|
| 9:49 |
: That was a great change-up.
|
| 9:50 |
: Gotta get that grip. It’s some sort of hybrid split finger FOSH thing.
|
| 9:50 |
: FOSH?
|
| 9:50 |
: Was aiming for the mic guy
|
| 9:50 |
: You sorta hold it in the split finger but it comes off your fingers on the side like a dead fish.
|
| 9:51 |
: Missed one.
|
| 9:51 |
: That could have been another bomb.
|
| 9:51 |
: 97
|
| 9:51 |
: 97 on the corner.
|
| 9:51 |
: I need an illustration for that Eno. I have no idea what that means.
|
| 9:52 |
: Salazar is filthy tonight
|
| 9:52 |
: See Lincecum here? How his little fingers are on the ball? Imagine pronating on that. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tim-lincecums-eyes-are-wide-open/
|
| 9:52 |
: Seeing Salazar throwing like this, I’m sure Cleveland wishes they saw this in his first outing so they would have trusted him more.
|
| 9:52 |
: Eno back when I was capable of moving my body athletically I used to throw this forkball thing with a deep grip that flew like a knuckler — is that a thing?
|
| 9:52 |
: Coello. Forkleball/Forkball. Some of the split finger throwers throw that rarely by jamming it further in.
|
| 9:53 |
: My wife keeps watching the video of Arrieta pitching naked over and over. Says he is so amazingly hot. Should I be worried?
|
| 9:53 |
: You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about I guess.
|
| 9:54 |
: If Jake Arrieta is interested in your wife, you’re probably capable of bouncing back.
|
| 9:55 |
: Has she spotted any mechanical problems?
|
| 9:55 |
: That was a crazy slider.
|
| 9:56 |
: Popped a Revolution Fist City, shh don’t tell my boss.
|
| 9:56 |
: Beautiful paint job
|
| 9:56 |
: Too much junk in the trunk in my amateur scouting assessment
|
| 9:56 |
: Totally has a big ass, but it’s athletic.
|
| 9:56 |
: why is lebron wearing sunglasses in the dark?
|
| 9:56 |
: This is about as typical a 2016 Arrieta start as it gets.
|
| 9:58 |
: swilling ninja v. unicorn over here – are cubs or Indians more apropos ninjas or unicorns?
|
| 9:58 |
: 2016 Arietta is still a beast.
|
| 9:58 |
: Rondon obviously off, but why is Strop sitting? He had 2 scoreless appearances vs. Dodgers. Does Maddon know something? What did you see?
|
| 9:58 |
: Cubs the Unicorns because of that young core.
|
| 9:58 |
: Wrote about this today, but Strop has also been bad since coming off DL.
|
| 9:58 |
: Probably more trustworthy than Rondon at this point, but he’s not midseason Strop.
|
| 9:58 |
: Doesn’t matter. Arietta still pitching well enough to not even risk the pen.
|
| 9:59 |
: is Dave walking dog or tucking child in?
|
| 9:59 |
: Abandoning responsibilities.
|
| 9:59 |
: At a bar.
|
| 9:59 |
: Should’ve done that.
|
| 9:59 |
: Terrible pitch.
|
| 9:59 |
: Kipnis is a ninja.
|
| 9:59 |
: Kipnis good.
|
| 10:01 |
: Hopefully you brought a charger this time, Dave
|
| 10:01 |
: I have my screen brightness on almost 0
|
| 10:01 |
: So far, it’s working.
|
| 10:01 |
: Kipnis is really good, but I’ve never thought of him as the type of hitter to turn what looks like a routine flyout off the bat into an oppo homer.
|
| 10:03 |
: Dave Cameron is
not the prime minister. Baseball loving dude. |
| 10:03 |
: Eno, do you enjoy some of the “bigger” craft brews, like those from Stone or Rogue or Bell’s?
|
| 10:03 |
: Bells for sure. Stone’s Enjoy Bys yes. I like Lagunitas’ Fresh Hop.
|
| 10:04 |
: Jeff Womanboat in the game
|
| 10:04 |
: womancar? womanplane?
|
| 10:05 |
: what’s the MO on Manship?
|
| 10:05 |
: I got nothing. Sinker slider meh?
|
| 10:06 |
: I think you mean Jeff Dude’s-Thigh
|
| 10:06 |
: Why would they take Salazar out? Trying to get him in tomorrow?
|
| 10:06 |
: He hasn’t pitched in like 2 months.
|
| 10:06 |
: He’s not really built up.
|
| 10:07 |
: “One of those guys that can spin a baseball” uhm. You mean ALL MLB pitchers?
|
| 10:07 |
: Is “being ahead” really a “formula”?
|
| 10:07 |
: “he’s a baseball player” — Terry Collins
|
| 10:07 |
: 3-3 out of the infield!
|
| 10:07 |
: Judd Boyboat
|
| 10:07 |
: Heyward has had some good at-bats tonight relatively speaking
|
| 10:07 |
: He’s been hitting the ball well all series.
|
| 10:09 |
: Manship has a good cb by whiff rate. Don’t see anything about a slider in the PITCH/fx data.
|
| 10:09 |
: Who is a better fielder: Lindor or Simmons?
|
| 10:09 |
: 83 with that movement is probably a slider.
|
| 10:09 |
: Simmons.
|
| 10:10 |
: Manship: AAAA level pitch to contact spot starter who somehow found a spot in a world series bullpen.
|
| 10:10 |
: Eno, thoughts on the Dogfish Head IPAs?
|
| 10:10 |
: Especially the 120.
|
| 10:10 |
: Dave – thoughts on playing Ross over Contreras tonight? You haven’t been big on Ross but Contreras has looked overmatched.
|
| 10:10 |
: I’ll take the 75, the 120 is too much.
|
| 10:10 |
: Montero is normally Arrieta’s catcher, not Ross. And Contreras’ D hasn’t hurt them.
|
| 10:10 |
: Contreras hasn’t been great at framing tonight though.
|
| 10:11 |
: Contreras is great at framing, don’t you see him jerking his glove into the zone on every reception?
|
| 10:12 |
: 260 foot flyball bat flip
|
| 10:12 |
: Any ball hit to center is a carnival ride
|
| 10:12 |
: Do we actually care about “spin rate” or is it just something the network is talking up?
|
| 10:12 |
: Naquin is bad at calling balls. LF and RF problems. He’s the common denominator.
|
| 10:12 |
: Two fastballs with same velocity but different spin rates have wildly different whiff rates.
|
| 10:13 |
: Rich hill loves spin rate
|
| 10:13 |
: It’s true, I do
|
| 10:13 |
: Can a high spin pitch go straight?
|
| 10:14 |
: A rising fastball will probably be straight because you’re converting more of the spin into useful, backwards spin, which makes it ride.
|
| 10:14 |
: Does spin rate dictate movement?
|
| 10:14 |
: Yes. Spin is converted into useful (informs movement) and not useful (gyro spin) by your arm slot and mechanics.
|
| 10:15 |
: How do you control spin rate?
|
| 10:15 |
: Nobody knows. Bauer said he couldn’t figure out how to impart more spin on the fastball at all. Figured out some stuff about grips and pronation / supination and spin for curves and changeups.
|
| 10:15 |
: Pitching is super rad
|
| 10:16 |
: so mechanically speaking, spin rate a function of pronation, fingertips, wrists, eyelids, or…?
|
| 10:17 |
: On secondary pitches, it’s about your grip, and how much you’re supinated before you throw. Everyone pronates to some extent or another on every throw (natural) and so you can use that to impart more or less spin. You want more spin on a curve, less on a changeup, normally.
|
| 10:17 |
: I always thought a higher spin rate meant slightly less velo. At least that’s what a former college pitcher told me in my fantasy league.
|
| 10:17 |
: Spin rate goes up with velocity.
|
| 10:17 |
: But we already do things like measuring the “break” on the ball, described as h-movement and v-movement. Aren’t those more informative than telling me how many RPMS are on the ball?
|
| 10:18 |
: For some reason, spin rate does something beyond that. I think it might be deception and what the batter sees. But yes, it’s weird because I thought spin just meant movement. One way we know: PITCHf/x spin rate was calculated and wrong. Now we have observed, and it means something else.
|
| 10:19 |
: If gyro spin isn’t useful, what was the point of the gyroball?
|
| 10:19 |
: Literally: it’s weird.
|
| 10:19 |
: Yo Eno, spin is great, there’s still a game happening here
|
| 10:19 |
: Y’all asked the questions!
|
| 10:19 |
: How important is spin rate for a slider? Obviously higher spin rate = more movement for fastballs and curves, but don’t sliders work a little differently?
|
| 10:19 |
: Did you really want us to play by play a blowout?
|
| 10:19 |
: I think we know the least about spin and sliders.
|
| 10:20 |
: I’d rather discuss Arrieta’s beard, it’s quite magnificent.
|
| 10:21 |
: Like a homeless man with a very good barber.
|
| 10:22 |
: Is spin rate descriptive or predictive or is that nonsensical? I.e. if a pitcher has a spin rate which should indicate a large break, but doesn’t get large break, should we expect them to eventually develop large break? Or is a high spin rate small break good in its own right?
|
| 10:22 |
: I don’t care how hard he is throwing if he can’t locate it…
|
| 10:22 |
: And Arrieta’s done.
|
| 10:23 |
: Zimmerman showed that the same 94 mph fastball with average spin has almost half the whiff rate as a 94 mph fastball with elite spin.
|
| 10:23 |
: Seems like an overreaction
|
| 10:23 |
: 102 pitches, wasn’t going to come back for 7th anyway.
|
| 10:23 |
: Guyer will PH and get drilled.
|
| 10:23 |
: Carl Edwards has elite spin on his FB…it’s the whole reason he’s effective
|
| 10:24 |
: Well and with Carl it’s sometimes a mini cutter
|
| 10:24 |
: Guyer will PH and *get grazed when he leans into one
|
| 10:25 |
:
Carl Edwards fastball grip finger size auto share
 |
| 10:25 |
: So how can two pitches have different spin rates, but the same velo?
|
| 10:26 |
: It *generally* goes up with velo, but not like 1 to 1.
|
| 10:26 |
: more spin = harder for batter to ID pitch?
|
| 10:26 |
: That’s my working theory.
|
| 10:26 |
: Pretty nice play there.
|
| 10:26 |
: He was falling backwards in the air and managed the flip. Pretty cool.
|
| 10:26 |
: for a given level of energy, more spin means less velocity
the mechanisms that increase speed tend to also increase spin |
| 10:27 |
: Physics tells us that hitting two balls at the same velocity, one with high spin, one with none, with the same swing would likely produce two very different results.
|
| 10:27 |
: Cubs win probability at 97%. http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2016-11-01&team=Indians&dh=0&season=2016
|
| 10:27 |
: This is true, however you impart your own spin on the ball in play, and it’s hard to reliably control the spin you impart.
|
| 10:28 |
: Arrieta beard, Miller beard, or Napoli beard?
|
| 10:28 |
: I like em trimmed.
|
| 10:29 |
: Addison Russell’s play at SS to end the inning was pretty phenomenal. And probably an underrated big play to end the inning at that point, as well.
|
| 10:29 |
: Dave and Eno I am curious as to what your favorite TV shows are?
|
| 10:30 |
: I watch very little TV. The Office is probably my favorite show ever.
|
| 10:30 |
: The true debate is Burns vs Thornton:
|
| 10:30 |
: I have no time for TV but we make time for West World and other HBO shows. I like Silicon Valley, I bet Dave would like it, but time is scarce.
|
| 10:30 |
: Mauricio Cabrera’s 100 vs Chapman’s, not close.
|
| 10:30 |
: Mau is low spin yeah.
|
| 10:31 |
: Dave liking the office is the most in-character thing I can imagine
|
| 10:31 |
: Does Colon have a high spin rate? Or how is it he can just throw 89 mph fastballs down the center of the plate?
|
| 10:32 |
: That’s command I think. King of the front door sinker.
|
| 10:32 |
: 5 isn’t enough to take the load off chapman?
|
| 10:32 |
: It should be.
|
| 10:32 |
: How does finger lenght correlate with spin rate? Serious question
|
| 10:32 |
: Nope. Small sample study done by Driveline, but no results at all. In my Carl Edwards piece.
|
| 10:33 |
: Chapman should be nowhere near this game if the score stands
|
| 10:33 |
: Agreed.
|
| 10:33 |
: The risk-averse nature of protect-a-lead-at-all-costs is silly when you have to win tomorrow.
|
| 10:33 |
: dude in that picture you (eno) look exactly like alan davies
|
| 10:33 |
: Better than Fat Kenny G or worse
|
| 10:34 |
: Plus Chapman threw a ton on Sunday, another day off would do him good
|
| 10:34 |
: Kenny Powers I’ve gotten
|
| 10:34 |
: Do we have a sense of how much worse Chapman would be tomorrow if he pitches today?
|
| 10:35 |
: We don’t know for sure. We just think worse, somewhat, maybe.
|
| 10:35 |
: I think our understanding of relievers and days in a row is really messed up by not knowing when they get ‘hot’ and how much they warm up in between.
|
| 10:35 |
: I think I found my new screen name.
|
| 10:35 |
: While drinking a beer in San Francisco I smelled your hair, fat Kenny G
|
| 10:35 |
: Anyone else get a Bowsery vibe from kyle schwarber?
|
| 10:36 |
: Relatedly, are there any stats on starters going back to back on 3 days rest?
|
| 10:36 |
: We’re talking about writing that for a post tomorrow!
|
| 10:36 |
: Rizzo clearly = wario
|
| 10:36 |
: Eye black irrationally bothers me
|
| 10:37 |
: oh so not an early Harper fan
|
| 10:37 |
: How does eye black actually work?
|
| 10:37 |
: supposedly pulls the sun away from your pupils by being black
|
| 10:37 |
: Eric Hinske is definitely wario I believe
|
| 10:38 |
: Time for Russell to set the WS RBI record
|
| 10:38 |
: Eye black doesn’t actually work, does it?
|
| 10:38 |
: Eye black works! A tiny bit, not really in the way anyone thinks it does
|
| 10:39 |
: What is the spin rate of eye black?
|
| 10:40 |
: Mythbusters found eye black “plausible” http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/mythbusters/mythbusters-database/baseball-eye-black-cuts-out-glare/
|
| 10:40 |
: xBA .500+ lineouts trigger me
|
| 10:40 |
: This is just frustrating to watch if you’re a fan of a rebuilding team (like the Braves): Cubs have Schwarber on second, Bryant on first, Russell at the plate, Rizzo already batted this inning. So many nice young players all over the place.
|
| 10:40 |
: Yeah, but you have Matt Kemp.
|
| 10:40 |
: oooooooooh
|
| 10:41 |
: hey eno, where can we watch the game tomr, if the cubs win, in SF with Cubs fans?
|
| 10:41 |
: I suggest trying to marshal forces and tell everyone to go to the Public House attached to AT&T. IT’s great, and empty in the offseason. But I don’t know a Cubs bar.
|
| 10:42 |
: Dave really endearing himself to a beaten down fan base there https://media.tenor.co/images/3aaeb97bfd057f74da36665ea11d6130/raw
|
| 10:43 |
: The Bar on Dolores is a Cubs bar, I think.
|
| 10:43 |
: Endearing myself is what I do.
|
| 10:43 |
: Montgomery all good here, yeah?
|
| 10:43 |
: Yeah, probably let him go through 8th if he can.
|
| 10:43 |
: Yup, there’s a group on meetup.com
|
| 10:43 |
: Dave doesn’t really do ~endearing
|
| 10:44 |
: Dave or Eno what do you know about analytics in football?
|
| 10:45 |
: It’s more difficult.
|
| 10:45 |
: Indians goal at this point is basically to make Chapman enter the game
|
| 10:45 |
: Pretty much.
|
| 10:46 |
: I’m not sure why but Wilsons twitchyiness is very noticeable and seems to go from annoying to endearing every so often
|
| 10:46 |
: was Chapman throwing or just stretching?
|
| 10:46 |
: Throwing.
|
| 10:46 |
: This is dumb.
|
| 10:47 |
: Please let chapman throw the 8th and 9th for some reason
|
| 10:47 |
: Bloop and a blast makes it a 2 run game though. Why is it dumb?
|
| 10:48 |
: You’re up 5 with 8 outs to go. You can get him up if it gets close, but otherwise, you’re just wasting pitches from Game 7.
|
| 10:48 |
: Can’t expect to throw tonight and then 3 innings tomorrow
|
| 10:49 |
: Managers are getting a lot smarter about bullpen usage, but the desire to protect any lead is still too strong.
|
| 10:49 |
: If you wouldn’t use Chapman down 2 here (and they wouldn’t), you shouldn’t use him up 5.
|
| 10:49 |
: Would not want to be Chapman’s bullpen catcher.
|
| 10:49 |
: To be fair, they’re road team and their season ends if they lose.
|
| 10:50 |
: You’re not anywhere near losing.
|
| 10:50 |
: Holy Crap, here comes Chapman.
|
| 10:50 |
: Well, no Chapman tomorrow then. Overthinking it Joe.
|
| 10:50 |
: Bet he uses Chapman tomorrow too.
|
| 10:51 |
: I am very angry about this
|
| 10:51 |
: Yeah, but he can’t use Chapman as much tomorrow.
|
| 10:51 |
: It’s not about can he pitch tomorrow; it’s about quantity.
|
| 10:51 |
: You could have probably tried to get 9 outs from him tomorrow if he got tonight off.
|
| 10:51 |
: Now? Maybe 6? Maybe?
|
| 10:51 |
: How happy is Francona right now?
|
| 10:51 |
: Thrilled.
|
| 10:52 |
: I’m ok with this – Lester is going to be the multiple inning guy tomorrow.
|
| 10:52 |
: Come in to start an inning, no baserunners.
|
| 10:53 |
: How do we know he doesn’t bring him in to squash this inning then take him out?
|
| 10:53 |
: You still burned him warming up.
|
| 10:53 |
: Indians getting to not use Miller, while Chapman pitches, is best case scenario loss for Cleveland.
|
| 10:54 |
: IS HE LIMPING
|
| 10:54 |
: He is a terrible defender.
|
| 10:55 |
: Out
|
| 10:55 |
: He’s out though.
|
| 10:55 |
: What a beautiful camera shot.
|
| 10:55 |
: I guess this increases the odds of Lester in game 7
|
| 10:55 |
: 100% chance of Lester tomorrow.
|
| 10:56 |
: Worst case scenario, Chapman hurt for one out ahead of game 7.
|
| 10:56 |
: He’d have to have blown out ACL to not pitch tomorrow.
|
| 10:56 |
: Maybe the limping saves maddon from himself.
|
| 10:56 |
: The best injury ever.
|
| 10:56 |
:
the fact that we can even look at this in this much detail is unbelievable
 |
| 10:57 |
: The cleat that saved the cubs season.
|
| 10:57 |
: Landing ankle better or worse than push off tho
|
| 10:58 |
: Even a grand slam maintains the Cubs lead — nothing “saved the Cubs season” that inning and burning/risking injury to chapman may have cost it
|
| 10:58 |
: Worse. Velo more correlated to landing foot pressure than push off foot.
|
| 10:58 |
: Is it weird that I feel bad for these players agents when they get burned so hard going into FA
|
| 10:58 |
: The agents are the ones to empathize with.
|
| 10:59 |
: please show someone else warming up in the cubs pen
|
| 10:59 |
: Can someone take a guess as to why Chapman came in the game? Because I honestly can’t come up with anything.
|
| 10:59 |
: Risk aversion.
|
| 11:00 |
: you know it’s bad when I’m calling you out for being in panic mode
|
| 11:00 |
: The commentary on Fox is actually pretty good on the use of Chapman.
|
| 11:00 |
: Maddon’s practice is if he gets Chapman warmed up he is getting in the game.
|
| 11:00 |
: He shouldn’t have been warming up;
|
| 11:01 |
: If a 5 run lead isn’t big enough for the cubs to feel comfortable with another reliever, what is?
|
| 11:02 |
: With the big three arms reference for Cleveland, is Shaw really better than Otero?
|
| 11:02 |
: Yes. 95 mph cutter is nasty!
|
| 11:02 |
: I will be perplexed if Chapman comes out next inning to face the lower part of the order
|
| 11:03 |
: No one warming up and two outs. He’s coming in.
|
| 11:03 |
: So, have the Cubs just decided, screw it, Chapman is gonna pitch 2 innings today and tomorrow? Cause that seems dumb, but it’s the only conclusion I can come up with.
|
| 11:04 |
: I think Maddon just doesn’t want to risk losing this game, even if the risk is tiny, and he’s not considering what it does to tomorrow at all.
|
| 11:04 |
: F’ing hell Chapman is going back out, what in the world?
|
| 11:04 |
: This is the logical conclusion of “win today, figure out tomorrow then”
|
| 11:04 |
: And it’s dumb’
|
| 11:05 |
: It also shows that he doesn’t trust the rest of his pen at all, even with a 97% probability of winning
|
| 11:05 |
: it’s fine to not trust them in close games. This isn’t a close game.
|
| 11:05 |
: At what point is it reasonable? 3 runs? 2 runs?
|
| 11:05 |
: If the lead was 3, this would be fine-ish, if overly conservative.
|
| 11:06 |
: 4 is too risk-averse. 5 is dumb.
|
| 11:06 |
: Just to play devil’s advocate, maybe he knows that Lester is going to be able to pitch a lot tomorrow?
|
| 11:06 |
: The best plan was to have Lester AND Chapman pitch a lot tomorrow.
|
| 11:06 |
: It wasn’t an either/or situation.
|
| 11:07 |
: I’d rather have chapman for 2 tomorrow than Lester for 2.
|
| 11:07 |
: Best pitchers freshest for game 7 is always the best option
|
| 11:07 |
: Who knows who has the lead tomorrow? Today it matters.
|
| 11:07 |
: This is the dumbest argument of them all.
|
| 11:08 |
: We might lose tomorrow, so might as well make chapman throw worthless innings today!
|
| 11:08 |
: I don’t care who has the lead tomorrow. The Cubs will need 27 outs tomorrow (at least). Now Chapman can get fewer of them… Probably
|
| 11:08 |
: How much of Madden’s risk aversion is specific to this team and context? I.e., would a manager who didn’t hold the Cubs World Series chances in their hands be more open to risk?
|
| 11:09 |
: This isn’t just Maddon. All managers do this in the postseason.
|
| 11:09 |
: Jansen closed out like a 4-5 run lead in the DS, I believe.
|
| 11:09 |
: How can we automatically assume he’s unavailable tomorrow?
|
| 11:09 |
: It isn’t about availability. It’s about quantity.
|
| 11:09 |
: Tito used Allen with a 6 run lead as well
|
| 11:09 |
: Jansen was with a 6-run lead!
|
| 11:09 |
: Even Miller has thrown some non high leverage innings with a lead.
|
| 11:10 |
: Maddon is in the game. Not watching the game on TV or on the internet. He is not playing to ‘not-lose’ game 6. Im sure the guy is nervous as hell, and doesn’t want anything getting out of hand and wanted to quash any possible chance of a loss.
|
| 11:10 |
: That’s dumb.
|
| 11:10 |
: You have to win two games to win the series. You make decisions based on winning two games, not one.
|
| 11:11 |
: Can we add Dave Cameron onto Undisputed. All he says is “That’s Dumb” apparently.
|
| 11:11 |
: I love it when Dave gets fired up!
|
| 11:11 |
: There are plenty of things where reasonable people can take both sides in baseball. Almost everything. Not this.
|
| 11:12 |
: Baez.
|
| 11:12 |
: I wish he could hit.
|
| 11:12 |
: They might have some defensive problems in the outfield as they age but they’ve got some plus infield defense… and Almora I guess.
|
| 11:13 |
: Baez is so good that didnt even look impressive
|
| 11:13 |
: shat would you think if they pulled chapman here?
|
| 11:13 |
: It would make a bad situation less bad.
|
| 11:13 |
: But he won’t.
|
| 11:13 |
: Chapman considers himself a closer. Maddon will let him close.
|
| 11:14 |
: Does Baez realistically learn to hit, Dave?
|
| 11:14 |
: Anything is possible. Ben Zobrist wasn’t Ben Zobrist until he was like 26. But current version Baez? No.
|
| 11:15 |
: Do we even have provable evidence that Chapman will be worse tmrw if he goes out and has an easy 9th inning?
|
| 11:15 |
: Again, it isn’t about better/worse, or about available/unavailable; it’s about quantity.
|
| 11:15 |
: No way Maddon asks Chapman to throw 40+ two days in a row.
|
| 11:15 |
: So you could have gotten this tomorrow.
|
| 11:15 |
: Now you get ~20 pitches, maybe.
|
| 11:16 |
: I sense an article coming tomorrow on the Chapman decision…
|
| 11:16 |
: I’m already working on it. It will be up tonight.
|
| 11:17 |
: how long does an article normally take to write?
|
| 11:18 |
: Once I have the idea and the data, I can knock it out in an ~1 hour.
|
| 11:18 |
: Yeah it’s the first part that sometimes takes for-f’in-ever.
|
| 11:18 |
: I’ll have to talk to the wife when I get home though, so this will take longer.
|
| 11:18 |
: Or at least for me. I’m not the greatest at data.
|
| 11:19 |
: How does theCubs front office not call up the dugout and say this is crazy – get someone other than Chapman in there?
|
| 11:19 |
: And the interview ones take much longer with travel, research, transcribing.
|
| 11:19 |
: Can we pull Chapman now?
|
| 11:20 |
: Give the ball to anyone else
|
| 11:20 |
: Can we pull Chapman NOW?
|
| 11:20 |
: If Chapman throws another inning with a 7 run lead…
|
| 11:20 |
: He’s going to pitch the 9th.
|
| 11:20 |
: Pete Rose has already bet on it.
|
| 11:21 |
: Still nobody up in the pen. Just… what?
|
| 11:21 |
: They’re at least getting someone up now.
|
| 11:21 |
: Pete loses! Bosio on the phone
|
| 11:22 |
: He’s ordering a pizza.
|
| 11:22 |
: If you’re not at home, where are you live chatting from. The FanGraphs field office in central Oregon?
|
| 11:22 |
: A random bar.
|
| 11:22 |
: Does this bar have good nachos?
|
| 11:23 |
: Got a burger this time. It was fine.
|
| 11:23 |
: man I guess I don’t want to know about your last chat what with the nachos and battery life
|
| 11:23 |
: Dave, bring an extra battery this time? 😉
|
| 11:24 |
: Battery at 51%. Turns out lowering the screen brightness to almost zero and killing every other tab helped…
|
| 11:24 |
: Vegan burger?
|
| 11:24 |
: Being Bend, I bet it has a killer tap list, going to waste on Dave.
|
| 11:24 |
: There are like ~23 craft breweries here.
|
| 11:25 |
: I’ve had water at like 4 already.
|
| 11:25 |
: Party at your city.
|
| 11:25 |
: Next FG retreat!
|
| 11:25 |
: My wife really likes the Deschutes Mirror Pond Pale Ale, for what its worth.
|
| 11:25 |
: Is it Sidelines? That place is pretty good.
|
| 11:25 |
: J-Dub.
|
| 11:25 |
: Deschutes is solid.
|
| 11:25 |
: He’s still out there.
|
| 11:25 |
: Of course.
|
| 11:26 |
: jesus
|
| 11:26 |
: This is… interesting?
|
| 11:26 |
: Chapman has thrown 15 pitches.
Even if he throws 30 … he’ll be able to walk right back out and throw 40+ tomorrow. The guy is a horse. He is strong as hell. Tomorrow is the last game of the year. He’ll have 10000% adrenaline going, he’ll empty everything out of the tank. Today’s outing will have minimal [see: zero] effect on him tmrw. Everyone is overreacting (just as Joe Maddon did) |
| 11:26 |
: You don’t know any of that to be true.
|
| 11:26 |
: You can hope it’s true. You can want it to be true. You can believe it’s true. But you can’t know any of it.
|
| 11:26 |
: You might even be right. But you can’t know that tonight.
|
| 11:27 |
: Neither do you not know it to be true.
|
| 11:27 |
: I’m not the one making wild claims.
|
| 11:28 |
: Moving from a known position — what Chapman would be able to do on two days rest — to an unknown is a downgrade. Period.
|
| 11:28 |
: Strop comes in
|
| 11:28 |
: You *are* the one calling people dumb, though
|
| 11:28 |
: I haven’t called anyone dumb. I’ve said this is a dumb decision.
|
| 11:28 |
: Smart people make dumb decisions.
|
| 11:28 |
: Here is the other thing: Why give Cleveland batters any additional looks at the guy? It isn’t like any of them have much history against him.
|
| 11:29 |
: Buddy at the game texted me, Hendricks warming the Cubs pen
|
| 11:29 |
: wut
|
| 11:29 |
: can’t be true
|
| 11:29 |
: Damn it Beowulf, keep drawing them towers on your Surface. You be you, buddy.
|
| 11:30 |
: The fact that his name is Beowulf is the least surprising part of the whole thing.
|
| 11:30 |
: Even the Old Book of Management says don’t use your best reliever here. I don’t see how people are defending this move.
|
| 11:30 |
: Cubs fan, not happy about about the decision to pitch chapman. love joe, but that was not rational
|
| 11:30 |
: When risk aversion becomes folly.
|
| 11:31 |
: 9 warmup pitches, 5 pitches to Guyer. All unnecessary.
|
| 11:32 |
: Just consider … for the sake of considering:
Joe Maddon is managing the Cubs. The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. The Cubs franchise have teams that have had epic meltdowns. They’re “the Cubs” for that reason. Now consider that he may have those thoughts in his mind. He is a person, after all, not a machine. He may have wanted to ensure that he gave himself the least chance of being the next in a line of historic meltdowns. And he’ll live with Chapman at 20 pitches today, only to run out there tmrw. He is a closer, after all, he is used to throwing 20 pitches and then coming back out to throw again the next day. Just consider all that … for consideration’s sake… thats all. |
| 11:32 |
: You just described risk aversion.
|
| 11:32 |
: Risk aversion is not a good way to manage when you have to win two games in two days. Risk can be good!
|
| 11:33 |
: i really want the indians to score 6 runs, just for the humor in it
|
| 11:33 |
: I know I did. But, it doesn’t mean that the human element does not come into play, here.
|
| 11:33 |
: Zobroastrianism – the worship of Ben Zobrist
|
| 11:33 |
: Yeah, if your argument is that Maddon made a bad choice because he’s human, okay. But that’s different than saying it wasn’t a bad choice.
|
| 11:33 |
: I don’t my manger thinking about a team’s history when he makes his decisions.
|
| 11:34 |
: Dave, who do you favor tomorrow
|
| 11:34 |
: Indians should be small favorites.
|
| 11:34 |
: Lolz
|
| 11:34 |
: Really dumb out at 2nd, down 6
|
| 11:34 |
: Bad baserunning.
|
| 11:34 |
: speaking of mistakes
|
| 11:34 |
: DUMB!!!
|
| 11:34 |
: Can we call that dumb?
|
| 11:34 |
: Will anyone defend that?
|
| 11:34 |
: TOOOOOOOTBLAN
|
| 11:34 |
: Good throw tho
|
| 11:35 |
: Wow, that’ve been awesome if the score wasn’t 9-3.
|
| 11:35 |
: What the hell was that throw. That was incredible!
|
| 11:35 |
: Heyward with a couple nice plays today
|
| 11:35 |
: When you haven’t won since 1948 you stretch singles…
|
| 11:35 |
: Put Heyward on the mound.
|
| 11:35 |
: Strop not that sharp, at least justifying why he’s been unused this postseason
|
| 11:36 |
: Dave seems like the guy that can make you question your own existence when he gets heated
|
| 11:36 |
: Aaron Hicks threw from the outfield 105mph one time. You think he could pitch?
|
| 11:36 |
: The funny thing is I’m perfectly calm. I’m just not going to appeal to authority on stuff like this.
|
| 11:36 |
: Christian Bethancourt is heading to the mound because he could throw 95 with a decent change.
|
| 11:36 |
: I’m not angry, or upset, or emotional in any real way. I just think Maddon made the wrong call and I have no problem saying so.
|
| 11:36 |
: OVERMANAGING
|
| 11:36 |
: Are you serious, Joe? Let me go to bed.
|
| 11:36 |
: Over-manage! *clap clap clapclapclap*
|
| 11:36 |
: he’s changing pitchers? is strop about to give up a 6 run homer?
|
| 11:37 |
: IM TIRED CMON
|
| 11:37 |
: Why bother with the pitching change up by 6 with one out go go?
|
| 11:37 |
: Maddon is doing this just to piss off Joe West
|
| 11:38 |
: Which team feels better going into game 7?
|
| 11:38 |
: Cleveland, easy.
|
| 11:39 |
: Kluber on second consecutive short rest v chapman on 62 pitches in last two games
|
| 11:39 |
: I love baseball but an out here would be okay.
|
| 11:39 |
: It’s Miller/Allen, with Kluber as an appetizer.
|
| 11:39 |
: This argument has been an entertaining spot in an otherwise dull game so thanks everyone! Hopefully we get to be soon
|
| 11:40 |
: you have to feel good playing game 7 at home after your opponent stepped all over itself at the end of a 6 run win
|
| 11:40 |
: Thank God
|
| 11:40 |
: thank you, gents!
|
| 11:40 |
: Thank you!
|
| 11:40 |
: Alright, thanks for sticking with us through the boring and then super interesting game!
|
| 11:40 |
: I’m heading off to write my THIS WAS DUMB post.
|
| 11:40 |
: We’ll see how it ends up.
|
| 11:41 |
: We’ll see you guys tomorrow for Game 7!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
FWIW, Chapman’s career line on 0 days’ rest is great compared to other rest situations:
— his lowest BB%;
— his highest K-BB%;
— higher K% than all other rest situations combined.
Of course, we don’t have much record of him on no rest with 40+ pitches 3 days before. Maybe none? Closest I found was in May 2012: 35 pitches, a rest day, 17 pitches, then pitched the next day. Clean inning, 1 K.
Other interesting strings:
— August 2014 — 13 pitches one day, 36 the next, then pitched 3rd day in a row. Struck out the side to save a 1-0 game.
— July 2015 — 44 pitches, then pitched the next day. Clean inning, 2 K. But 2 days later, 3 hits and 2 walks in one inning.
I found 5 appearances in which he had thrown at least 50 pitches over the prior 3 days. In those 5 games, he fanned 9 of 20 batters, with 1 unintentional walk (plus an IBB), no homers. He did yield 5 hits and 3 runs, 2 earned. 3 saves, one blown/loss, and a loss from a tie game. None of those lasted more than 3 outs.
As of Game 7, Chapman will have thrown 62 pitches in the prior 3 days. His prior high in that count was 57.
But lastly … 20 games in which he was working a 3rd or 4th straight day (a reasonable facsimile of his workload going into Game 7). Totals: 2 runs in 20 IP, 10 hits, 7 walks, 37 Ks out of 75 batters.
I suspect that Chapman will be fine for an inning, maybe 2.
Any of those with a likely swollen ankle though?