2016 World Series Game 6 Live Blog

by
November 1, 2016
8:02
Dave Cameron: Welcome to the Game 6 live blog!
8:02
Dave Cameron: Eno Sarris and I will be your hosts tonight.
8:02
Dave Cameron:

Who wins tonight?
Cubs (72.7% | 163 votes)
 
Indians (27.2% | 61 votes)
 
Total Votes: 224
8:02
Dave Cameron:

How many innings does Andrew Miller go tonight?
1 (10.9% | 21 votes)
 
2 (48.6% | 93 votes)
 
3 (19.3% | 37 votes)
 
All of them (20.9% | 40 votes)
 
Total Votes: 191
8:03
Dave Cameron:

How many innings does Aroldis Chapman go tonight?
1 (55.3% | 104 votes)
 
2 (40.4% | 76 votes)
 
3 (4.2% | 8 votes)
 
Total Votes: 188
8:03
desertfox9139: can miller go 4 innings tonight if he is averaging 10 to 12 pitches per inning?

8:03
Eno Sarris: He’s already thrown 47 if I remember correctly!
8:04
Dave Cameron: I would think with a game tomorrow, Francona won’t blow Miller out tonight.
8:04
Dave Cameron: You can bring him back tomorrow if he goes 2-3. 4? Now you’re not sure you can get anything besides one batter from him tomorrow.
8:05
Kevin: Does Lester see an inning tonight?
8:05
Dave Cameron: No.
8:05
Dave Cameron: He goes 2-3 tomorrow.
8:05
Dave Cameron: I know everyone likes to buy into the “win today, figure out tomorrow then” idea, but the Cubs have to win two in a row.
8:05
Dave Cameron: Selling out tomorrow to win today isn’t the right strategy.
8:06
JC: Are you guys surprised to see Schwarber hitting second tonight?
8:06
Dave Cameron: I thougt maybe he’d hit 4, but this breaks up the lefties more.
8:06
Arizona D-Bags: odds of a Joe West controversial call tonight?
8:06
Eno Sarris: very good
8:07
ChatzMcGee: Miller goes 5-6-7, or 6-7-8, assuming the Indians have the lead.
8:07
Dave Cameron: I’d guess 6-7, Allen 8-9.
8:07
Dave Cameron: Then both available tomorrow.
8:07
desertfox9139: tomlin for 2, otero for 1, then the trio for 2 apiece
8:07
Eno Sarris: yeah like this maybe.
8:07
Dave Cameron: They’ll get more than 2 from Tomlin unless he’s awful.
8:07
Nicholas: Why haven´t we seen Salazar?
8:07
Dave Cameron: He threw an inning in game 2, and was bad.
8:08
Eno Sarris: His injury history is pretty complicated, and he’s homer prone even when good, so not a great time for him.
8:08
Dave Cameron: I could see him throwing an inning tonight, maybe, if Tomlin only goes 3 or something.
8:09
Dave Cameron: But I don’t think they want to use him.
8:09
gallieo: no 0 option for Miller?
8:09
Dave Cameron: Only way Miller doesn’t pitch tonight is if they’re down big early.
8:09
Dan: I’ll be the guy to ask: any more info on our soon to be departed friend August, who speaking for all readers, we’ll all miss
8:09
Dave Cameron: His employer asked him to not reveal where he’s going, so we’re going to respect that too.
8:10
Dave Cameron: Here we go!
8:10
klof: will this chat feature ludes? we came for the ludes
8:10
Eno Sarris: (I’m riding shotgun)
8:10
Dave Cameron: First pitch fastball. Here come the curves.
8:11
Game 7: So much for tight zone
8:11
Joe: It begins…with a called strike 6 inches outside.
8:11
alpha: Is it that hard for Fox to just put a little generic square where the zone should be?
8:11
ChatzMcGee: That generic square is annoying.
8:11
Eno Sarris: They get yelled at if they do (not a great version of it, parallax issues, not necessarily altered for each batter height) and if they don’t, I guess.
8:12
Dave Cameron: Well they’re not really making him work early…
8:12
Dave Cameron: “It’s a good hitting and good pitching environment.”
8:12
Eno Sarris: Everyone’s happy!
8:12
ChatzMcGee: I don’t mind the PitchTrax on the side though.
8:12
jonnyzuck: I prefer them have a K zone graphic next to the batter at all times
8:13
Dave Cameron: Tomlin working fast.
8:13
Dave Cameron: Welp.
8:13
klof: YESYESYESYESYES
8:13
Eno Sarris: Hit a curveball!
8:13
Game 7: Good location there
8:13
desertfox9139: nice curve
8:13
alpha: Bryant!
8:13
JC: That ball was smashed
8:13
desertfox9139: not so nice curve
8:13
gtrope87: That there was a hanger
8:14
jonnyzuck: I didn’t see that ball land
8:14
5 Run Homer: That’s the Tomlin we know and love
8:14
JC: 106.2 MPH exit velocity
8:15
Dave Cameron: It’s amazing how much better the Cubs hitters look when not facing Kluber, Miller, or Allen.
8:15
Minor: This is your 0-2 pitch?

8:15
alpha: Did they just try a pickoff while he was on the bag?
8:15
Eno Sarris: .800+ expected BAs on both of those balls in play according to statcast. Tomlin is about a 1.25 pitch guy so I’m not sure how long he’ll last today.
8:16
Aunt Jessie: Am I the only one whose rooting interests are simply “GAME 7” ?
8:16
Eno Sarris: nope
8:16
Doug: How short is the leash for tomlin?
8:16
Dave Cameron: I think they stick with him for a bit because they can’t destroy the pen today.
8:16
Dave Cameron: You have to win 1 of 2. You don’t have to win this one.
8:16
Dave Cameron: Crushing the pen today in a game you might lose anyway isn’t a great idea.
8:17
JC: Who’s the long man for Cleveland?
8:17
Dave Cameron: They don’t really have one. Maybe Salzar?
8:17
Dave Cameron: Salazar.
8:17
anonymous: Fangraphs writers root for game 7 because it pushes back their post-season articles one more day 😀
8:17
Eno Sarris: You’re not not right.
8:18
Game 7: Merritt not rostered?
8:18
Dave Cameron: Oh yeah, he’s around.
8:18
Dave Cameron: Defense!
8:18
JC: Oh no
8:18
klof: hahahahahahahahaha
8:18
A Bloo Bloo Jays: Holy cow
8:19
Dave Cameron: I don’t think you can do that anymore?
8:19
Eno Sarris: Hah, after those smoked balls a 78 mph ball straight up in the air (xBA .158) drives one in.
8:19
anonymous: Catcher was blocking the plate
8:19
JC: Did he give Zobrist a path to the plate? Or am I misunderstanding the rule?
8:20
Ryan: Looked like he wanted to slide
8:20
desertfox9139: someone has to warming up right?
8:21
Dave Cameron: No, you have to get some innings from Tomlin tonight.
8:21
Dave Cameron: This isn’t a must-win for Cleveland.
8:21
Dave Cameron: If you lose, and you save Miller/Allen, well, you got a great chance tomorrow.
8:21
Eno Sarris:

@enosarris shouldn’t MLB have a “team error” for plays like that as that is NOT a double.
2 Nov 2016
8:21
desertfox9139: even with manship, mcallister, clevenger, merritt….
8:21
Dave Cameron: They aren’t better than Tomlin.
8:21
Eno Sarris: I know some pitchers that want the team error to exist haha.
8:22
The Hamburglar: Tomlin seems to be hanging some of these curveballs
8:22
Guest: Cubs need to keep adding on so they can save Chapman for multiple innings in Game 7
8:22
Eno Sarris: Difference between a hanging curve and a curve thrown in the zone for a called strike is super hard to discern.
8:23
Dave Cameron: I think a blowout is actually better for CLE than a close loss.
8:23
Elbo: Why are they carrying all of those non-used pitchers instead of extra position players? No one worth adding to the roster?
8:23
Dave Cameron: No; they don’t have enough good position players as is.
8:23
The Hamburglar: Indians still need to be patient with Arrieta? Force him to walk guys?
8:24
Dave Cameron: Given his stuff, no real reason to help him get you out. Take until you have to swing.
8:24
Eno Sarris: Especially since the slider command hasn’t been there this year.
8:24
Lee: Dave, are you considering the psychological effect of a blowout on such shrinking violets as MLB players
8:24
Eno Sarris: They’d never get over it
8:24
Erik: Is August becoming a player or an owner?
8:25
Eno Sarris: Blew out his shoulder playing whiffleball with us so not that.
8:25
britishcub: so best scenario for cubs is a 3-0 win from here? make indians use guys they may not otherwise?
8:25
Dave Cameron: Maybe more like 4-0 with a late add-on that lets them save Chapman.
8:26
Guest: A close game causes Cubs to use good arms — blow it out and play a close game tomorrow against double-short rest kluber
8:27
Dave Cameron: Cubs get Lester as a reliever tomorrow. Saving pen not as necessary for them.
8:27
Anthony: How big does the lead have to be in say, the 7th, that allows the Cubs to use Grimm and Edwards instead of Chapman/Rondon? 5? 6?
8:27
Dave Cameron: Rondon’s the mopup guy now.
8:27
Dave Cameron: But probably 5+
8:28
Chalupa Batman: Do you agree with Rondon being the mopup guy now?
8:28
Dave Cameron: He’s been atrocious since August. Hard to imagine he’s healthy.
8:28
Eno Sarris: Hasn’t been the same really since he came back from injury.
8:28
Lord above: Any chance we see Montgomery tonight? Feel like there’s no scenario where he pitches tomorrow and he can eat innings.
8:28
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he’s reliever #1 out of the pen tonight.
8:28
Dave Cameron: Lester makes him irrelevant tomorrow.
8:29
El Dragon: Cubs bullpen depth chart right now behind Chapman is probably some combination of Edwards, Montgomery, and Strop, for those who don’t know. All 3 are usable, but you don’t have 100% confidence in any of them.
8:29
Dave Cameron: I bet we see Lackey tonight if it’s close-ish.
8:29
ResumeMan: Y’all sound like you’re confident that Lester will be a lights-out reliever on short rest. Is that the case?
8:30
Dave Cameron: Not saying he’ll definitely be great, but pretty certain Maddon uses him.
8:30
Eno Sarris: Arrieta velo up.
8:30
Game 7: Cutter is looking more 1-7 tonight
8:30
Eno Sarris: Haven’t seen many of the tight slider, yeah looks big.
8:31
Dave Cameron: There’s the Arrieta iffy command.
8:31
Eno Sarris: Uh what happened on those last two pitches? Totally yanked both of them! And tried to soften to 89 to get it in unless that was the cutter.
8:32
Dave Cameron: Smoltz is a stolen base afficianado.
8:32
Dave Cameron: Everyone always has to go.
8:33
Harold Reynolds: Do you not send him here?
8:33
Dave Cameron: With 2 strikes, maybe.
8:34
Dave Cameron: But on 1 strike, no.
8:34
Eno Sarris: Contreras no subtlety on the frame.
8:34
ChatzMcGee: John Smoltz has 6 career SBs, 3 in the postseason.
8:34
Eno Sarris: yasssss
8:34
Dave Cameron: Napoli missed one.
8:34
Guest: Are we in for a classic arrieta five-inning multiple-walk no hitter
8:35
Dave Cameron: It’s his thing now.
8:35
Theo Epstein: Arrieta’s command seems to just vanish at times, then come right back
8:35
Dave Cameron: It’s really weird.
8:36
Lord above: You know how every celebrity from the thirties names like “James howe” Was really a Jewish guy names “Israel Horowitz” or something. For some reason I always think Mike Napoli is really from Belarus and his real name is like “Mikhail Napolovich” but he was afraid jewish stereotypes in regards to athleticism would have kept him off the diamond.
8:37
The Hamburglar: How many times are you guys going to see the movie Trolls?
8:37
Dave Cameron: I have Twitter; I see it everyday.
8:37
Eno Sarris: Maybe his command problem is about that throwing across the body thing. Baltimore tried to get Arrieta to simplify and get rid of that, and he beefed up and tried to just repeat it with Chicago. Maybe after some time, it really is hard to repeat.
8:37
Guest: Except Napoli is obviously Italian…?
8:37
Dave Cameron: Heyward almost got one.
8:37
Lord above: Italians are good at baseball
8:38
Guest: We in for a classic taken first strike gold two obvious balls Baez at bat
8:39
Dave Cameron: He took one!
8:39
Crusty Juggler: This chat has a suspicious lack of poop emoji’s.
8:39
The Hamburglar: He wanted to swing so bad
8:39
Eno Sarris: I don’t think that feature is coming back.
8:39
Dave Cameron: What a play.
8:39
Dave Cameron: Man.
8:39
Erik: How does it help Arrieta to throw across his body? Shouldn’t that kill his power?
8:39
anonymous: xBA on that baez ball was .065
8:39
Guest: Out
8:40
Eno Sarris: So much deception for Arrieta, you don’t see the ball. Adds movement too.
8:40
peachesnnuts: Wow great throw by Kipnis
8:40
Erik: Does the rise in shifting mean that second baseman have to be better fielders now?
8:40
Dave Cameron: Range matters less now for infielders.
8:40
Dave Cameron: Since positioning is helping them be in the right spot more often.
8:41
Guest: Hey where’s the pitcher’s spot?
8:41
Maine Man: Maybe the flip side of Erik’s question: does being a spray hitter carry more value in an era of extensive shifts?
8:41
Dave Cameron: Yep.
8:42
Erik: Range would matter more for third basemen though, since they play up the middle occasionally?
8:42
Dave Cameron: Probably more athleticism than range.
8:42
Dave Cameron: You don’t see guys in short right having to make side to side plays that often.
8:43
Ryan: Hey Dave about a year ago you let me interview you for a school paper and I only got a B on it. Do we blame Eno for this shortcoming?
8:43
Dave Cameron: For all things, all the time.
8:43
Hib: Off topic but I’m gonna miss August on Fangraphs 🙁
8:43
Dave Cameron: We all are.
8:44
Dave Cameron: But I’m happy for him personally. He deserves this.
8:44
Dave Cameron: Don’t help him…
8:44
Dave Cameron: That AB is exactly what CLE can’t do.
8:45
anonymous: Reminder: Tomorrow afternoon is Free Taco day for those of you who want diarrhea during Game 7
8:45
Guest: That guys jersey logo is somehow more offensive than the one the *ndians wear now!
8:45
Erik: Wow the Indians logo used to be a lot worse
8:45
JC: Eddie Robinson looking incredible for 95
8:45
James Cameron: What do you look for when saying Arrieta pitches across his body?
8:46
ChatzMcGee: Will we ever learn what team August was hired by and what his job is, or will it always be classified?
8:46
Eno Sarris: Does the follow through take him across his plant leg side to side or more along his plant leg. Arrieta comes around his plant leg.
8:46
Dave Cameron: At some point, some beat writer will see him around the stadium or something and it will come out.
8:46
tomj: Do beat writers know what August looks like?
8:47
Dave Cameron: Well he was one for a year so yeah.
8:47
Joe: Why is it classified? Seems weird.
8:47
Dave Cameron: I would say you’d have to ask them but well…
8:48
Mike: Tribe still clear favorite if it gets to tomorrow night?
8:48
Dave Cameron: No
8:48
Dave Cameron: Maybe like 53/47 or something, but not clear favorite.
8:48
Dock Ellis: Late again (thankfully I got that parking pass) but only missed two innings. Can you fill me in on what’s happened? In haiku form please
8:48
Eno Sarris: Cubs smoked some balls
Kris Bryant did hit the curve
Arrieta gas
8:48
Erik: Isn’t it easier just to say that Arrieta steps towards third?
8:48
Eno Sarris: okay that too
8:49
JT: Is game to game momentum a thing?
8:49
Dave Cameron: No
8:50
Mitch : Count your syllables Eno
8:50
Eno Sarris: Two syllables in smoked, right?
8:50
Dock Ellis: Now when I see the close up on Arrieta I now just think he has to fart. Thanks Eno.
8:51
Sir John Ellsworth: I always pronounce it smoke-ed
8:51
Eno Sarris: but you have to pronounce the d even without the ‘e’ it’s SMOKE-D? no?
8:52
Lord above: “have to pronounce the d” sounds like a song jack black would sing.
8:52
JT: No, Eno
8:52
Travis Wood Stan: Smokt, it’s smokt
8:52
LudeBurger: I think this is why we often have games like “Can Eno pronounce X’s name?”
8:52
Stuafoo: Welcome to the fangraphs grammar chat
8:53
Dave Cameron: Cubs could put this game away here.
8:54
Lee: Borderline pitch?
8:54
Dave Cameron: Looked away to me.
8:54
Lord above: I’ve submitted like 5 real questions and my stupid mike napoli theory and the jack black thing are the only ones that are blue. You’re conditioning you’re readers to become carson.
8:54
Dave Cameron: Those two.
8:54
Guest: Do the Indians practice fly balls or are they improvising
8:54
desertfox9139: what is naquin doing?
8:54
Elston Gunn: That looked scary
8:54
Bob: They look like the outfielders in Major League.
8:55
alpha: That was a torn ACL waiting to happen
8:56
Eno Sarris: Naquin looking a bit rookie!
8:56
anonymous: I would think you can bust Rizzo high and tight if he’s gonna lean out over the plate like that
8:56
Dave Cameron: He just takes the HBP.
8:56
RMR: I have no idea how much CF Naquin plays, but it looks like his judgment is questionable and Chisenhall knows it.
8:57
Dave Cameron: He’s a lousy CF.
8:57
BigBadVlad: At what point do you just pull naquin
8:58
Dave Cameron: They don’t have anyone better, really.
8:58
Dave Cameron: That’s good hitting. Nothing wrong with that pitch.
8:59
Dave Cameron: Fastballs in to Zobrist.
8:59
Dave Cameron: Clearly a plan.
9:00
Dave Cameron: That one didn’t get in enough.
9:00
Eno Sarris: And he hit one!
9:00
ChatzMcGee: I have a deep appreciation for hitters who choke-up on the bat.
9:00
Dave Cameron: Dan Otero time.
9:01
Phoenix2042: How does this chat thing work? I have written about 5 questions in here and none of them have shown up in the chat.
9:01
Eno Sarris: joey Votto, Barry Bonds, Anthony Rizzo.
9:01
Dave Cameron: This is more of a live blog than a Q&A. We’ll answer some questions when we can, but this is more of a let’s-watch-the-game-together hangout.
9:01
JA: Zobrist has been so huge for the Cubs this postseason
9:02
AJ: Andrew Miller only enters with a lead?
9:02
Dave Cameron: They’ll put him in if its tied or maybe even down 1
9:02
Dave Cameron: But they’re not using him if Chicago blows this open here.
9:03
Matt: Using Tomlin and Bauer on short rest in a series definitely feels like it was doomed to failure.
9:03
Dave Cameron: Carrasco/Salazar injuries mattered, even if they didn’t need them early.
9:03
Joe: These commercials make the WBC seem super fun.
9:03
Dave Cameron: It is!
9:03
Phoenix2042: Do you guys actually pick and choose what goes through or is it an algorithm that looks for certain words to censure? That’s my basic question haha
9:03
Dave Cameron: We’re picking them.
9:04
Kevin: How deep does a flyball need to be here to score Schwarber?
9:04
Dave Cameron: Over the fence.
9:04
BigBadVlad: would you call the WBC “lit” dave?
9:04
Dave Cameron: Never
9:04
Travis Wood Stan: Yeah, don’t ask questions, post absurd statements. Take it from a guy who’s 1 for 1 (taught eno how to pronounce smoked)
9:04
Dave Cameron: Welp.
9:04
Eno Sarris: I love Russell so much.
9:05
Stuafoo: Well then
9:05
Alfrz: I love this.
9:05
desertfox9139: bears up by a TD!
9:05
I work for GE: See y’all tomorrow.
9:05
Tyler: might get to bed early after all
9:05
Drew: So Miller can hit the showers?
9:05
Phoenix2042: Now we don’t get to see Miller, Chapman, or Allen. It’s like, why are we even watching?
9:05
redstripe: start managing for tomorrow
9:05
Dave Cameron: Be interesting to see if Arrieta can go like 7-8 now.
9:05
matt: is kluber on 3 days rest after 81 pitches equivalent to him with a larger workload on normal rest? i.e. is there worry about his second go round on three days rest?
9:06
Dave Cameron: Double short rest is an issue, 81 pitches or no. But if Miller/Allen don’t pitch today, only need ~4 from him tomorrow.
9:06
Eno Sarris: I’m looking into this for ESPN right now and I’m looking at movement in short rest and in back to back games, and velocity, and so far I’ve seen an extra tick of velo gone on second short rest start.
9:06
Stone: 108 MPH on the HR. Fastest ball hit tonight
9:07
Owen: This is bad news because Maddon’s clearly going use like 10 pitchers tomorrow, right?
9:07
Dave Cameron: I’d bet 3, maybe 4. Hendricks-Lester-Chapman would be ideal.
9:08
Geoff Williams: Do we see Ryan Merritt tonight?
9:08
Guest: Where did the breaking balls go tonight?
9:08
Eno Sarris: Now it’s Tomlin’s for a while.
9:08
Dave Cameron: Tomlin went away from it after Bryant hammered one.
9:08
Dave Cameron: Tomlin is out, Eno.
9:08
Dave Cameron: Thanks for paying attention!
9:08
Eno Sarris: HAH
9:08
Hint of Rye: I’m sticking with this game simply because in a week I’ll be sad about the lack of baseball available to watch.
9:08
Eno Sarris: Oh yeah Otero. Shoot he was terrible in Oakland.
9:08
Brendan: Sorry if someone already asked this, but do you pull Arrieta early now for Game 7 bullpen?
9:09
Dave Cameron: Nope.
9:09
Dave Cameron: 0 day rest is not worth it, especially with better options.
9:09
No: Russell cementing himself as most attractive Cub :^)
9:09
Eno Sarris: You and me on an island.
9:10
Andrew: Arrieta’s job is now to save the rest of the bullpen
9:10
Dave Cameron: Yup.
9:10
Anthony: So is Chicago’s win expectancy now >99%
9:10
Dave Cameron: 96%. http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2016-11-01&team=Indians&dh=0&season=2016
9:10
Andrew: So who’s the sacrificial lamb for Francona? Can McAllister eat 4 or 5 innings?
9:10
Dave Cameron: Merritt, probably.
9:11
JC: Who’s got chat duties tomorrow, Dave?
9:11
Dave Cameron: Jeff.
9:11
JA: is there a clear MVP for either side as of now?
9:11
Bruce: Imagine paying a few grand for tickets tonight
9:12
Dave Cameron: Kluber for CLE
9:12
redstripe: Naquin for CHI
9:12
Harthan: Is there any argument that doesn’t rely on the hindsight of how badly it played out for having gone to Ryan Merritt to start Game 5/Game 6?
9:12
Dave Cameron: No
9:12
Zmccoy: Yikes.
9:13
Cleveland Spiders : Naquin is complete garbage.
9:13
Dave Cameron: He was great for CLE this year.
9:13
Dave Cameron: But he’s got some flaws.
9:13
Kimball : Eno, can you look into spin rate on short rest, too? Kershaw’s nonexistent curve ball in NLCS #6 made me wonder…
9:13
Eno Sarris: Tiny tiny sample
9:13
Cubs fan: Arrieta needs to turn in to strike throwing arrietta to eat some innings
9:14
Dave Cameron: This is one of those times when it shows that pitchers can’t really throw it where they want whenever they want.
9:14
Dave Cameron: Up 7-0, should just be pounding strikes.
9:14
Drew: So I assume Cleveland just doesn’t have bars to watch games based on the crowds they have outside
9:15
Dave Cameron: It’s 70 there; more fun to be outside.
9:15
The Hamburglar: Cleveland has a great bar scene
9:15
senpaisanto: would CG shutout be ideal from jake here?
9:15
Dave Cameron: Well, yeah.
9:15
The Hamburglar: Also, the Cavs game JUST ended. So thats why its extra crowded
9:16
Nietsniew: I know pitching to contact is generally stupid, but shouldn’t arrieta do so to limit his pitch count so he can pitch longer?
9:16
Dave Cameron: Well you have to pitch to weak enough contact that you don’t give up hits, because hits don’t help your pitch count.
9:16
Eno Sarris: Which is a big problem with the contact thing to begin with.
9:17
Eric: If Jake were lifted after ~40 pitches could he be available tomorrow?
9:17
Dave Cameron: Not worth it.
9:17
Dave Cameron: Better to have the guys who don’t have to pitch today because he goes long available instead.
9:17
Basho: Jake Arrietta
Pound them over the plate please.
No need to paint now.
9:18
Mike: To play devil’s advocate, Naquin probably got reamed for not calling for it in the first inning, so I see him in the third waving his arms and screaming and Chisenhall just catches it. Some fault for Chisenhall too, I would think.
9:18
Eric: How can that be? Those pitches are worse than him. Use the worse ones when leading by 7.
9:18
Dave Cameron: The worse ones wouldn’t be pitching on 0 days rest tomorrow.
9:18
Dave Cameron: And here’s Salazar as long man.
9:19
Drew: Interesting relief change here
9:19
Eno Sarris: We got our innings soak.
9:19
Eno Sarris: Maybe.
9:19
Alfrz: 7 pitches in. Baez is looking much better than he has this series
9:20
Dave Cameron: Hah.
9:20
Zmccoy: Baez is awful right now.
9:20
Phoenix2042: You had to say something!
9:20
Alfrz: I said 7. I said nothing about 9 pitches.
9:21
Tyler: could we see Lackey in game 7?
9:21
Dave Cameron: Yeah, if Arrieta can carry most of this game, could add him to the mix tomorrow.
9:21
Nick Rapoport: i don’t think the cubs want to see lackey in game 7
9:21
Dave Cameron: Lackey is good.
9:21
Phoenix2042: How much do you think Lester could throw tomorrow?
9:22
Dave Cameron: 2-3.
9:22
Mitch : Lester over Lackey though, right?
9:22
Dave Cameron: Sure, but lets you pull Hendricks earlier if need be. Could go Hendricks-Some RP to get out of a jam-Lester-Lackey-Chapman
9:23
Phoenix2042: Hendricks for 5-6, Lester for 2, Chapman for 1-2?
9:23
Dave Cameron: They’d love that, but I doubt Hendricks goes 5-6.
9:23
Dave Cameron: In a Game 7, you have guys ready to come in at any rally.
9:24
Eric: Salazar looks good so far. Makes you wonder if starting him might have been a better strategy than Tomlin, injury issues notwithstanding.
9:24
bosoxforlife: Hendricks goes 71/3/2/0/0/6.
9:24
Dave Cameron: I will wager whatever you want that Hendricks doesn’t go 7+
9:24
David: The Cubs just don’t trust Rondon, Strop or Wood at all, do they?
9:25
Dave Cameron: Rondon is almost definitely hurt, Strop probably is.
9:26
TengoPreguntas: Wood evolved into montgomery
9:26
David: So it’s kind of amazing each team is carrying like 7 relievers but each team also only trusts three of them? Seems like an inefficient use of roster space, no?
9:27
Dave Cameron: With so many iffy starters, CLE had to carry lots of arms in case it all went badly.
9:27
: Kipnis
9:27
Cubs fan: There goes no no hope, game even more boring now
9:27
Nick Rapoport: If Rondon is hurt why is he on the roster? A non injured reliever would be more productive wouldn’t it?
9:28
Dave Cameron: Hurt might be too strong a word. But he’s definitely not 100%.
9:28
Eno Sarris: He’s not necessarily telling people he’s hurt. It’s that hurt/injured thing.
9:28
Eno Sarris: “are you hurt or are you injured”
9:29
Cubs fan: It’s hard to tell when he still touching 98
9:30
bob: Rondon’s slider never came back after the injury.
9:30
Lord above: How many runs would Arrieta have to give up over the next few innings to get pulled? I’d say 3.
9:30
Dave Cameron: I’d say 2 but still in trouble.
9:30
Dave Cameron: If they get a few and load the bases, they won’t leave him out ther to let it get close.
9:31
Ricky: a 98 fasball can still be a roogy right?
9:31
Dave Cameron: Not if it isn’t moving
9:31
Dave Cameron: Guys are hitting ~.390 against him since August.
9:31
Dave Cameron: 7-1
9:32
JC: And the comeback begins…
9:32
Guest: I thought the beauty of chapman’s fastball was that it’s so straight
9:32
Drew: Time for a mound visit to slow the game down
9:32
Eno Sarris: Super straight is different from normal. I’d say ‘straight’ is actually ‘average.’
9:33
Kyle: What’s your leash on Arrieta looking like right now?
9:33
Dave Cameron: I’d let him try to work through this.
9:33
Dave Cameron: You want length from him if you can get it.
9:33
Dave Cameron: Heyward can still play D.
9:33
Clayton Kershaw: heyward good
9:33
The Hamburglar: And that’s what Heyward can do, even if he’s not hitting
9:33
anonymous: jason heyward just bounced off the ground
9:34
Zmccoy: Love that 2 handed grab
9:34
Eckstein123: If none of them are used tonight, is there any way CLE could get six innings out of Miller/Allen/Shaw? Is 2 IP each just crazy?
9:34
Dave Cameron: If they don’t pitch tonight, bet it’s Kluber-Miller-Allen for first 9-10 innings, with everyone else saved for extras.
9:34
Dave Cameron: Amazing how his command just vanishes.
9:36
Andrew: Defense is a lot tougher to slump at than offense
9:36
Guest: passed ball
9:36
Eno Sarris: Seems more straight forward, built on athleticism, if you’re healthy, maybe.
9:36
Drew: Crossed up on that?
9:37
Dave Cameron: Don’t have to groove one here.
9:37
Dave Cameron: Don’t give up 2 runs because you’re afraid to walk Crisp.
9:37
Cubs fan: Yea, walk him
9:38
Guest: Tyler naquin isn’t the hero we want, he’s the hero we deserve
9:38
JC: This is probably the most nervous fans of a team with a six run lead have ever been
9:38
Travis Wood Stan: Travis Wood is good
So good they should put him in
Put him in you win
9:38
The Hamburglar: Naquin getting ready to cement his WS MVP resume for the Cubs
9:38
Lord above: And now the zone expands
9:39
Three Hamburgers: Three fastballs right by Naquin
9:39
Eno Sarris: well then
9:40
Big Cass: Tyler Naquin there’s only one word to describe you
9:40
The Hamburglar: Let’s thank Tyler Naquin for making this game one-sided
9:40
anonymous: That felt like the Indians last chance
9:40
Basho: My haiku beats you
I perceive a contest where
None has been proposed.
9:42
Phoenix2042: So many political ads
9:42
Eno Sarris: I live in California, so none.
9:43
alpha: No political ads? In LA there have been non stop proposition adds and a Trump add or two
9:43
Guest: Jesus try get more and more arcane with these stats
9:43
Eno Sarris: You guys must be more politically diverse than NoCal.
9:44
Alfrz: Stupid throw. A mistake would have sent Bryant to second w no chance of throwing him out
9:44
TengoPreguntas: “He’s heating up” (NBA Jam voice)
9:44
Dave Cameron: Add-on runs!
9:44
Dave Cameron: Which sounds weird up 6
9:44
Dave Cameron: But they can’t hurt.
9:44
Guest: Smh Cubs running up the score
9:44
Micheal Nelson Trout: Man this Kris is guy pretty good. He reminds me of myself when i was young
9:45
Dock Ellis. : That was an awful haiku Dave.
9:45
El Dragon: The more pitches the Indians relievers throw, the more arms they either completely exhaust, or bring in. Score as many as possible.
9:46
Erik: Has there been any game in the history of baseball where “score as many as possible” wasn’t the plan?
9:47
lbonz: what do ya say jose
9:47
senpaisanto: wtf was that sound guy up to?
9:47
anonymous: Bad look. Guy working the game tries to barehand a ball in play.
9:47
Guest: The games Pete rose was throwing?
9:47
timb: Microphone guy… self defense, or world-series-ball-chance-grab?
9:47
Eno Sarris: Defense. It’s not so hard to get like a BP ball at a game, even World Series.
9:48
Hint of Rye: Getting a world series ball is nothing compared to that mic guy getting more freelance jobs of this level
9:48
Badwolf: Sound guy trying to protect some expensive-ass equipment
9:49
Dave Cameron: That was a great change-up.
9:50
Eno Sarris: Gotta get that grip. It’s some sort of hybrid split finger FOSH thing.
9:50
Dock Ellis. : FOSH?
9:50
Guest: Was aiming for the mic guy
9:50
Eno Sarris: You sorta hold it in the split finger but it comes off your fingers on the side like a dead fish.
9:51
Dave Cameron: Missed one.
9:51
Dave Cameron: That could have been another bomb.
9:51
Guest: 97
9:51
Dave Cameron: 97 on the corner.
9:51
Dock Ellis. : I need an illustration for that Eno. I have no idea what that means.
9:52
Eric: Salazar is filthy tonight
9:52
Eno Sarris: See Lincecum here? How his little fingers are on the ball? Imagine pronating on that. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/tim-lincecums-eyes-are-wide-open/
9:52
Dave Cameron: Seeing Salazar throwing like this, I’m sure Cleveland wishes they saw this in his first outing so they would have trusted him more.
9:52
Guest: Eno back when I was capable of moving my body athletically I used to throw this forkball thing with a deep grip that flew like a knuckler — is that a thing?
9:52
Eno Sarris: Coello. Forkleball/Forkball. Some of the split finger throwers throw that rarely by jamming it further in.
9:53
Q-Ball: My wife keeps watching the video of Arrieta pitching naked over and over. Says he is so amazingly hot. Should I be worried?
9:53
Eno Sarris: You vs the guy she tells you not to worry about I guess.
9:54
JC: If Jake Arrieta is interested in your wife, you’re probably capable of bouncing back.
9:55
Lord above: Has she spotted any mechanical problems?
9:55
Dave Cameron: That was a crazy slider.
9:56
Eno Sarris: Popped a Revolution Fist City, shh don’t tell my boss.
9:56
Alfrz: Beautiful paint job
9:56
Guest: Too much junk in the trunk in my amateur scouting assessment
9:56
Eno Sarris: Totally has a big ass, but it’s athletic.
9:56
TengoPreguntas: why is lebron wearing sunglasses in the dark?
9:56
Zmccoy: This is about as typical a 2016 Arrieta start as it gets.
9:58
senpaisanto: swilling ninja v. unicorn over here – are cubs or Indians more apropos ninjas or unicorns?
9:58
Alfrz: 2016 Arietta is still a beast.
9:58
Q-Ball: Rondon obviously off, but why is Strop sitting? He had 2 scoreless appearances vs. Dodgers. Does Maddon know something? What did you see?
9:58
Eno Sarris: Cubs the Unicorns because of that young core.
9:58
Dave Cameron: Wrote about this today, but Strop has also been bad since coming off DL.
9:58
Dave Cameron: Probably more trustworthy than Rondon at this point, but he’s not midseason Strop.
9:58
Alfrz: Doesn’t matter. Arietta still pitching well enough to not even risk the pen.
9:59
senpaisanto: is Dave walking dog or tucking child in?
9:59
Dave Cameron: Abandoning responsibilities.
9:59
Dave Cameron: At a bar.
9:59
Eno Sarris: Should’ve done that.
9:59
Dave Cameron: Terrible pitch.
9:59
Eno Sarris: Kipnis is a ninja.
9:59
Dave Cameron: Kipnis good.
10:01
Section329: Hopefully you brought a charger this time, Dave
10:01
Dave Cameron: I have my screen brightness on almost 0
10:01
Dave Cameron: So far, it’s working.
10:01
Aladdin Sane: Kipnis is really good, but I’ve never thought of him as the type of hitter to turn what looks like a routine flyout off the bat into an oppo homer.
10:03
Basho: Dave Cameron is
not the prime minister.
Baseball loving dude.
10:03
David: Eno, do you enjoy some of the “bigger” craft brews, like those from Stone or Rogue or Bell’s?
10:03
Eno Sarris: Bells for sure. Stone’s Enjoy Bys yes. I like Lagunitas’ Fresh Hop.
10:04
JC: Jeff Womanboat in the game
10:04
Eno Sarris: womancar? womanplane?
10:05
JA: what’s the MO on Manship?
10:05
Eno Sarris: I got nothing. Sinker slider meh?
10:06
Zock Jr.: I think you mean Jeff Dude’s-Thigh
10:06
Alfrz: Why would they take Salazar out? Trying to get him in tomorrow?
10:06
Dave Cameron: He hasn’t pitched in like 2 months.
10:06
Dave Cameron: He’s not really built up.
10:07
Ryan: “One of those guys that can spin a baseball” uhm. You mean ALL MLB pitchers?
10:07
Erik: Is “being ahead” really a “formula”?
10:07
Eno Sarris: “he’s a baseball player” — Terry Collins
10:07
TengoPreguntas: 3-3 out of the infield!
10:07
Pips Mcgilly: Judd Boyboat
10:07
tedTHRILLiams: Heyward has had some good at-bats tonight relatively speaking
10:07
Dave Cameron: He’s been hitting the ball well all series.
10:09
JAV: Manship has a good cb by whiff rate. Don’t see anything about a slider in the PITCH/fx data.
10:09
Phoenix2042: Who is a better fielder: Lindor or Simmons?
10:09
Eno Sarris: 83 with that movement is probably a slider.
10:09
Dave Cameron: Simmons.
10:10
Corey: Manship: AAAA level pitch to contact spot starter who somehow found a spot in a world series bullpen.
10:10
Saxton Hale: Eno, thoughts on the Dogfish Head IPAs?
10:10
Saxton Hale: Especially the 120.
10:10
Drew: Dave – thoughts on playing Ross over Contreras tonight? You haven’t been big on Ross but Contreras has looked overmatched.
10:10
Eno Sarris: I’ll take the 75, the 120 is too much.
10:10
Dave Cameron: Montero is normally Arrieta’s catcher, not Ross. And Contreras’ D hasn’t hurt them.
10:10
Eno Sarris: Contreras hasn’t been great at framing tonight though.
10:11
Guest: Contreras is great at framing, don’t you see him jerking his glove into the zone on every reception?
10:12
anonymous: 260 foot flyball bat flip
10:12
JC: Any ball hit to center is a carnival ride
10:12
Bronn: Do we actually care about “spin rate” or is it just something the network is talking up?
10:12
Who_Is_Zorbist: Naquin is bad at calling balls. LF and RF problems. He’s the common denominator.
10:12
Eno Sarris: Two fastballs with same velocity but different spin rates have wildly different whiff rates.
10:13
Guest: Rich hill loves spin rate
10:13
Rich Hill: It’s true, I do
10:13
Stuafoo: Can a high spin pitch go straight?
10:14
Eno Sarris: A rising fastball will probably be straight because you’re converting more of the spin into useful, backwards spin, which makes it ride.
10:14
Saxton Hale: Does spin rate dictate movement?
10:14
Eno Sarris: Yes. Spin is converted into useful (informs movement) and not useful (gyro spin) by your arm slot and mechanics.
10:15
Nimrod: How do you control spin rate?
10:15
Eno Sarris: Nobody knows. Bauer said he couldn’t figure out how to impart more spin on the fastball at all. Figured out some stuff about grips and pronation / supination and spin for curves and changeups.
10:15
Tyler: Pitching is super rad
10:16
senpaisanto: so mechanically speaking, spin rate a function of pronation, fingertips, wrists, eyelids, or…?
10:17
Eno Sarris: On secondary pitches, it’s about your grip, and how much you’re supinated before you throw. Everyone pronates to some extent or another on every throw (natural) and so you can use that to impart more or less spin. You want more spin on a curve, less on a changeup, normally.
10:17
dead soupbone: I always thought a higher spin rate meant slightly less velo. At least that’s what a former college pitcher told me in my fantasy league.
10:17
Eno Sarris: Spin rate goes up with velocity.
10:17
Bronn: But we already do things like measuring the “break” on the ball, described as h-movement and v-movement. Aren’t those more informative than telling me how many RPMS are on the ball?
10:18
Eno Sarris: For some reason, spin rate does something beyond that. I think it might be deception and what the batter sees. But yes, it’s weird because I thought spin just meant movement. One way we know: PITCHf/x spin rate was calculated and wrong. Now we have observed, and it means something else.
10:19
Erik: If gyro spin isn’t useful, what was the point of the gyroball?
10:19
Eno Sarris: Literally: it’s weird.
10:19
Ryan: Yo Eno, spin is great, there’s still a game happening here
10:19
Eno Sarris: Y’all asked the questions!
10:19
Aniball: How important is spin rate for a slider? Obviously higher spin rate = more movement for fastballs and curves, but don’t sliders work a little differently?
10:19
Dave Cameron: Did you really want us to play by play a blowout?
10:19
Eno Sarris: I think we know the least about spin and sliders.
10:20
ChatzMcGee: I’d rather discuss Arrieta’s beard, it’s quite magnificent.
10:21
ChatzMcGee: Like a homeless man with a very good barber.
10:22
Erik: Is spin rate descriptive or predictive or is that nonsensical? I.e. if a pitcher has a spin rate which should indicate a large break, but doesn’t get large break, should we expect them to eventually develop large break? Or is a high spin rate small break good in its own right?
10:22
TengoPreguntas: I don’t care how hard he is throwing if he can’t locate it…
10:22
Dave Cameron: And Arrieta’s done.
10:23
Eno Sarris: Zimmerman showed that the same 94 mph fastball with average spin has almost half the whiff rate as a 94 mph fastball with elite spin.
10:23
Joe: Seems like an overreaction
10:23
Dave Cameron: 102 pitches, wasn’t going to come back for 7th anyway.
10:23
Who_Is_Zorbist: Guyer will PH and get drilled.
10:23
Zonk: Carl Edwards has elite spin on his FB…it’s the whole reason he’s effective
10:24
Cubs fan: Well and with Carl it’s sometimes a mini cutter
10:24
Guest: Guyer will PH and *get grazed when he leans into one
10:25
Eno Sarris:

Carl Edwards fastball grip finger size auto share
9 Oct 2016
10:25
JC: So how can two pitches have different spin rates, but the same velo?
10:26
Eno Sarris: It *generally* goes up with velo, but not like 1 to 1.
10:26
tenaciousdeucer: more spin = harder for batter to ID pitch?
10:26
Eno Sarris: That’s my working theory.
10:26
Dave Cameron: Pretty nice play there.
10:26
Eno Sarris: He was falling backwards in the air and managed the flip. Pretty cool.
10:26
someone who took AP physics: for a given level of energy, more spin means less velocity
the mechanisms that increase speed tend to also increase spin
10:27
Pips Mcgilly: Physics tells us that hitting two balls at the same velocity, one with high spin, one with none, with the same swing would likely produce two very different results.
10:27
Dave Cameron: Cubs win probability at 97%. http://www.fangraphs.com/livewins.aspx?date=2016-11-01&team=Indians&dh=0&season=2016
10:27
Eno Sarris: This is true, however you impart your own spin on the ball in play, and it’s hard to reliably control the spin you impart.
10:28
Phoenix2042: Arrieta beard, Miller beard, or Napoli beard?
10:28
Eno Sarris: I like em trimmed.
10:29
Matt: Addison Russell’s play at SS to end the inning was pretty phenomenal. And probably an underrated big play to end the inning at that point, as well.
10:29
Ryan: Dave and Eno I am curious as to what your favorite TV shows are?
10:30
Dave Cameron: I watch very little TV. The Office is probably my favorite show ever.
10:30
ChatzMcGee: The true debate is Burns vs Thornton:

10:30
Eno Sarris: I have no time for TV but we make time for West World and other HBO shows. I like Silicon Valley, I bet Dave would like it, but time is scarce.
10:30
ChatzMcGee: Mauricio Cabrera’s 100 vs Chapman’s, not close.
10:30
Eno Sarris: Mau is low spin yeah.
10:31
Guest: Dave liking the office is the most in-character thing I can imagine
10:31
Druidiful: Does Colon have a high spin rate? Or how is it he can just throw 89 mph fastballs down the center of the plate?
10:32
Eno Sarris: That’s command I think. King of the front door sinker.
10:32
TengoPreguntas: 5 isn’t enough to take the load off chapman?
10:32
Dave Cameron: It should be.
10:32
Santiago: How does finger lenght correlate with spin rate? Serious question
10:32
Eno Sarris: Nope. Small sample study done by Driveline, but no results at all. In my Carl Edwards piece.
10:33
Christopher_Guest: Chapman should be nowhere near this game if the score stands
10:33
Dave Cameron: Agreed.
10:33
Dave Cameron: The risk-averse nature of protect-a-lead-at-all-costs is silly when you have to win tomorrow.
10:33
Lord above: dude in that picture you (eno) look exactly like alan davies
10:33
Eno Sarris: Better than Fat Kenny G or worse
10:34
Zonk: Plus Chapman threw a ton on Sunday, another day off would do him good
10:34
Eno Sarris: Kenny Powers I’ve gotten
10:34
Evan: Do we have a sense of how much worse Chapman would be tomorrow if he pitches today?
10:35
Dave Cameron: We don’t know for sure. We just think worse, somewhat, maybe.
10:35
Eno Sarris: I think our understanding of relievers and days in a row is really messed up by not knowing when they get ‘hot’ and how much they warm up in between.
10:35
Fat Kenny G: I think I found my new screen name.
10:35
Classic eno comment: While drinking a beer in San Francisco I smelled your hair, fat Kenny G
10:35
Ryan: Anyone else get a Bowsery vibe from kyle schwarber?
10:36
Christopher_Guest: Relatedly, are there any stats on starters going back to back on 3 days rest?
10:36
Dave Cameron: We’re talking about writing that for a post tomorrow!
10:36
Guest: Rizzo clearly = wario
10:36
Eric: Eye black irrationally bothers me
10:37
Eno Sarris: oh so not an early Harper fan
10:37
Fat Kenny G: How does eye black actually work?
10:37
Eno Sarris: supposedly pulls the sun away from your pupils by being black
10:37
Ryan: Eric Hinske is definitely wario I believe
10:38
Guest: Time for Russell to set the WS RBI record
10:38
E: Eye black doesn’t actually work, does it?
10:38
Guest: Eye black works! A tiny bit, not really in the way anyone thinks it does
10:39
E: What is the spin rate of eye black?
10:40
Guest: Mythbusters found eye black “plausible” http://www.discovery.com/tv-shows/mythbusters/mythbusters-database/baseball-eye-black-cuts-out-glare/
10:40
anonymous: xBA .500+ lineouts trigger me
10:40
Bronn: This is just frustrating to watch if you’re a fan of a rebuilding team (like the Braves): Cubs have Schwarber on second, Bryant on first, Russell at the plate, Rizzo already batted this inning. So many nice young players all over the place.
10:40
Dave Cameron: Yeah, but you have Matt Kemp.
10:40
Eno Sarris: oooooooooh
10:41
carter: hey eno, where can we watch the game tomr, if the cubs win, in SF with Cubs fans?
10:41
Eno Sarris: I suggest trying to marshal forces and tell everyone to go to the Public House attached to AT&T. IT’s great, and empty in the offseason. But I don’t know a Cubs bar.
10:42
Ryan Brock: Dave really endearing himself to a beaten down fan base there https://media.tenor.co/images/3aaeb97bfd057f74da36665ea11d6130/raw
10:43
Russ: The Bar on Dolores is a Cubs bar, I think.
10:43
Dave Cameron: Endearing myself is what I do.
10:43
senpaisanto: Montgomery all good here, yeah?
10:43
Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably let him go through 8th if he can.
10:43
Christopher_Guest: Yup, there’s a group on meetup.com
10:43
Guest: Dave doesn’t really do ~endearing
10:44
Ryan: Dave or Eno what do you know about analytics in football?
10:45
Dave Cameron: It’s more difficult.
10:45
The Walking Man: Indians goal at this point is basically to make Chapman enter the game
10:45
Dave Cameron: Pretty much.
10:46
Matt : I’m not sure why but Wilsons twitchyiness is very noticeable and seems to go from annoying to endearing every so often
10:46
tenaciousdeucer: was Chapman throwing or just stretching?
10:46
Dave Cameron: Throwing.
10:46
Dave Cameron: This is dumb.
10:47
E: Please let chapman throw the 8th and 9th for some reason
10:47
Fat Kenny G: Bloop and a blast makes it a 2 run game though. Why is it dumb?
10:48
Dave Cameron: You’re up 5 with 8 outs to go. You can get him up if it gets close, but otherwise, you’re just wasting pitches from Game 7.
10:48
Chapman’s Arm: Can’t expect to throw tonight and then 3 innings tomorrow
10:49
Dave Cameron: Managers are getting a lot smarter about bullpen usage, but the desire to protect any lead is still too strong.
10:49
Dave Cameron: If you wouldn’t use Chapman down 2 here (and they wouldn’t), you shouldn’t use him up 5.
10:49
ChatzMcGee: Would not want to be Chapman’s bullpen catcher.
10:49
Bronn: To be fair, they’re road team and their season ends if they lose.
10:50
Dave Cameron: You’re not anywhere near losing.
10:50
Q-Ball: Holy Crap, here comes Chapman.
10:50
ChatzMcGee: Well, no Chapman tomorrow then. Overthinking it Joe.
10:50
Eno Sarris: Bet he uses Chapman tomorrow too.
10:51
Cubs fan: I am very angry about this
10:51
Dave Cameron: Yeah, but he can’t use Chapman as much tomorrow.
10:51
Dave Cameron: It’s not about can he pitch tomorrow; it’s about quantity.
10:51
Dave Cameron: You could have probably tried to get 9 outs from him tomorrow if he got tonight off.
10:51
Dave Cameron: Now? Maybe 6? Maybe?
10:51
The Walking Man: How happy is Francona right now?
10:51
Dave Cameron: Thrilled.
10:52
Andrew: I’m ok with this – Lester is going to be the multiple inning guy tomorrow.
10:52
Eno Sarris: Come in to start an inning, no baserunners.
10:53
E: How do we know he doesn’t bring him in to squash this inning then take him out?
10:53
Dave Cameron: You still burned him warming up.
10:53
Dave Cameron: Indians getting to not use Miller, while Chapman pitches, is best case scenario loss for Cleveland.
10:54
Eno Sarris: IS HE LIMPING
10:54
Dave Cameron: He is a terrible defender.
10:55
bob: Out
10:55
Paul G.: He’s out though.
10:55
Dave Cameron: What a beautiful camera shot.
10:55
Tyler: I guess this increases the odds of Lester in game 7
10:55
Dave Cameron: 100% chance of Lester tomorrow.
10:56
Alfonso: Worst case scenario, Chapman hurt for one out ahead of game 7.
10:56
Dave Cameron: He’d have to have blown out ACL to not pitch tomorrow.
10:56
bob: Maybe the limping saves maddon from himself.
10:56
Dave Cameron: The best injury ever.
10:56
Eno Sarris:

the fact that we can even look at this in this much detail is unbelievable
2 Nov 2016
10:57
Alfrz: The cleat that saved the cubs season.
10:57
Cubs fan: Landing ankle better or worse than push off tho
10:58
Guest: Even a grand slam maintains the Cubs lead — nothing “saved the Cubs season” that inning and burning/risking injury to chapman may have cost it
10:58
Eno Sarris: Worse. Velo more correlated to landing foot pressure than push off foot.
10:58
Tyler: Is it weird that I feel bad for these players agents when they get burned so hard going into FA
10:58
Dave Cameron: The agents are the ones to empathize with.
10:59
JA: please show someone else warming up in the cubs pen
10:59
Guest: Can someone take a guess as to why Chapman came in the game? Because I honestly can’t come up with anything.
10:59
Dave Cameron: Risk aversion.
11:00
joe buck: you know it’s bad when I’m calling you out for being in panic mode
11:00
divcoman: The commentary on Fox is actually pretty good on the use of Chapman.
11:00
tenaciousdeucer: Maddon’s practice is if he gets Chapman warmed up he is getting in the game.
11:00
Dave Cameron: He shouldn’t have been warming up;
11:01
Zmccoy: If a 5 run lead isn’t big enough for the cubs to feel comfortable with another reliever, what is?
11:02
Jeff K: With the big three arms reference for Cleveland, is Shaw really better than Otero?
11:02
Eno Sarris: Yes. 95 mph cutter is nasty!
11:02
Zonk: I will be perplexed if Chapman comes out next inning to face the lower part of the order
11:03
Phoenix2042: No one warming up and two outs. He’s coming in.
11:03
El Dragon: So, have the Cubs just decided, screw it, Chapman is gonna pitch 2 innings today and tomorrow? Cause that seems dumb, but it’s the only conclusion I can come up with.
11:04
Dave Cameron: I think Maddon just doesn’t want to risk losing this game, even if the risk is tiny, and he’s not considering what it does to tomorrow at all.
11:04
Drama Llama: F’ing hell Chapman is going back out, what in the world?
11:04
Dave Cameron: This is the logical conclusion of “win today, figure out tomorrow then”
11:04
Dave Cameron: And it’s dumb’
11:05
Jeff K: It also shows that he doesn’t trust the rest of his pen at all, even with a 97% probability of winning
11:05
Dave Cameron: it’s fine to not trust them in close games. This isn’t a close game.
11:05
Drew: At what point is it reasonable? 3 runs? 2 runs?
11:05
Dave Cameron: If the lead was 3, this would be fine-ish, if overly conservative.
11:06
Dave Cameron: 4 is too risk-averse. 5 is dumb.
11:06
Phoenix2042: Just to play devil’s advocate, maybe he knows that Lester is going to be able to pitch a lot tomorrow?
11:06
Dave Cameron: The best plan was to have Lester AND Chapman pitch a lot tomorrow.
11:06
Dave Cameron: It wasn’t an either/or situation.
11:07
Zmccoy: I’d rather have chapman for 2 tomorrow than Lester for 2.
11:07
alpha: Best pitchers freshest for game 7 is always the best option
11:07
Greg j: Who knows who has the lead tomorrow? Today it matters.
11:07
Dave Cameron: This is the dumbest argument of them all.
11:08
Guest: We might lose tomorrow, so might as well make chapman throw worthless innings today!
11:08
sethmoko: I don’t care who has the lead tomorrow. The Cubs will need 27 outs tomorrow (at least). Now Chapman can get fewer of them… Probably
11:08
A guess: How much of Madden’s risk aversion is specific to this team and context? I.e., would a manager who didn’t hold the Cubs World Series chances in their hands be more open to risk?
11:09
Dave Cameron: This isn’t just Maddon. All managers do this in the postseason.
11:09
Dave Cameron: Jansen closed out like a 4-5 run lead in the DS, I believe.
11:09
Ben: How can we automatically assume he’s unavailable tomorrow?
11:09
Dave Cameron: It isn’t about availability. It’s about quantity.
11:09
The Walking Man: Tito used Allen with a 6 run lead as well
11:09
Mike Oxawoppa: Jansen was with a 6-run lead!
11:09
Bryn: Even Miller has thrown some non high leverage innings with a lead.
11:10
Matt: Maddon is in the game. Not watching the game on TV or on the internet. He is not playing to ‘not-lose’ game 6. Im sure the guy is nervous as hell, and doesn’t want anything getting out of hand and wanted to quash any possible chance of a loss.
11:10
Dave Cameron: That’s dumb.
11:10
Dave Cameron: You have to win two games to win the series. You make decisions based on winning two games, not one.
11:11
Fat Kenny G: Can we add Dave Cameron onto Undisputed. All he says is “That’s Dumb” apparently.
11:11
Harold Reynolds: I love it when Dave gets fired up!
11:11
Dave Cameron: There are plenty of things where reasonable people can take both sides in baseball. Almost everything. Not this.
11:12
Dave Cameron: Baez.
11:12
Dave Cameron: I wish he could hit.
11:12
Eno Sarris: They might have some defensive problems in the outfield as they age but they’ve got some plus infield defense… and Almora I guess.
11:13
Guest: Baez is so good that didnt even look impressive
11:13
desertfox9139: shat would you think if they pulled chapman here?
11:13
Dave Cameron: It would make a bad situation less bad.
11:13
Dave Cameron: But he won’t.
11:13
Dave Cameron: Chapman considers himself a closer. Maddon will let him close.
11:14
Minty: Does Baez realistically learn to hit, Dave?
11:14
Dave Cameron: Anything is possible. Ben Zobrist wasn’t Ben Zobrist until he was like 26. But current version Baez? No.
11:15
Matt: Do we even have provable evidence that Chapman will be worse tmrw if he goes out and has an easy 9th inning?
11:15
Dave Cameron: Again, it isn’t about better/worse, or about available/unavailable; it’s about quantity.
11:15
Dave Cameron: No way Maddon asks Chapman to throw 40+ two days in a row.
11:15
Dave Cameron: So you could have gotten this tomorrow.
11:15
Dave Cameron: Now you get ~20 pitches, maybe.
11:16
Zonk: I sense an article coming tomorrow on the Chapman decision…
11:16
Dave Cameron: I’m already working on it. It will be up tonight.
11:17
Nick: how long does an article normally take to write?
11:18
Dave Cameron: Once I have the idea and the data, I can knock it out in an ~1 hour.
11:18
Eno Sarris: Yeah it’s the first part that sometimes takes for-f’in-ever.
11:18
Dave Cameron: I’ll have to talk to the wife when I get home though, so this will take longer.
11:18
Eno Sarris: Or at least for me. I’m not the greatest at data.
11:19
Eric Weinstein: How does theCubs front office not call up the dugout and say this is crazy – get someone other than Chapman in there?
11:19
Eno Sarris: And the interview ones take much longer with travel, research, transcribing.
11:19
Eno Sarris: Can we pull Chapman now?
11:20
alpha: Give the ball to anyone else
11:20
Zonk: Can we pull Chapman NOW?
11:20
Phoenix2042: If Chapman throws another inning with a 7 run lead…
11:20
Dave Cameron: He’s going to pitch the 9th.
11:20
Dave Cameron: Pete Rose has already bet on it.
11:21
El Dragon: Still nobody up in the pen. Just… what?
11:21
Dave Cameron: They’re at least getting someone up now.
11:21
senpaisanto: Pete loses! Bosio on the phone
11:22
bob: He’s ordering a pizza.
11:22
Gabe: If you’re not at home, where are you live chatting from. The FanGraphs field office in central Oregon?
11:22
Dave Cameron: A random bar.
11:22
Chalupa Batman: Does this bar have good nachos?
11:23
Dave Cameron: Got a burger this time. It was fine.
11:23
Eno Sarris: man I guess I don’t want to know about your last chat what with the nachos and battery life
11:23
ResumeMan: Dave, bring an extra battery this time? 😉
11:24
Dave Cameron: Battery at 51%. Turns out lowering the screen brightness to almost zero and killing every other tab helped…
11:24
will: Vegan burger?
11:24
Eno Sarris: Being Bend, I bet it has a killer tap list, going to waste on Dave.
11:24
Dave Cameron: There are like ~23 craft breweries here.
11:25
Dave Cameron: I’ve had water at like 4 already.
11:25
Eno Sarris: Party at your city.
11:25
Eno Sarris: Next FG retreat!
11:25
Dave Cameron: My wife really likes the Deschutes Mirror Pond Pale Ale, for what its worth.
11:25
Pilot Butte is overrated: Is it Sidelines? That place is pretty good.
11:25
Dave Cameron: J-Dub.
11:25
Eno Sarris: Deschutes is solid.
11:25
Paul G.: He’s still out there.
11:25
Dave Cameron: Of course.
11:26
Drew: jesus
11:26
Dr Evil: This is… interesting?
11:26
Matt: Chapman has thrown 15 pitches.

Even if he throws 30 … he’ll be able to walk right back out and throw 40+ tomorrow.

The guy is a horse. He is strong as hell. Tomorrow is the last game of the year. He’ll have 10000% adrenaline going, he’ll empty everything out of the tank.

Today’s outing will have minimal [see: zero] effect on him tmrw.

Everyone is overreacting (just as Joe Maddon did)
11:26
Dave Cameron: You don’t know any of that to be true.
11:26
Dave Cameron: You can hope it’s true. You can want it to be true. You can believe it’s true. But you can’t know any of it.
11:26
Dave Cameron: You might even be right. But you can’t know that tonight.
11:27
Matt: Neither do you not know it to be true.
11:27
Dave Cameron: I’m not the one making wild claims.
11:28
Dave Cameron: Moving from a known position — what Chapman would be able to do on two days rest — to an unknown is a downgrade. Period.
11:28
Guest: Strop comes in
11:28
Ryan Brock: You *are* the one calling people dumb, though
11:28
Dave Cameron: I haven’t called anyone dumb. I’ve said this is a dumb decision.
11:28
Dave Cameron: Smart people make dumb decisions.
11:28
Professor Ross Eforp: Here is the other thing: Why give Cleveland batters any additional looks at the guy? It isn’t like any of them have much history against him.
11:29
Guest: Buddy at the game texted me, Hendricks warming the Cubs pen
11:29
Eno Sarris: wut
11:29
Eno Sarris: can’t be true
11:29
beta: Damn it Beowulf, keep drawing them towers on your Surface. You be you, buddy.
11:30
Eno Sarris: The fact that his name is Beowulf is the least surprising part of the whole thing.
11:30
Mittens: Even the Old Book of Management says don’t use your best reliever here. I don’t see how people are defending this move.
11:30
Bill: Cubs fan, not happy about about the decision to pitch chapman. love joe, but that was not rational
11:30
Homer Bailey: When risk aversion becomes folly.
11:31
Who_Is_Zorbist: 9 warmup pitches, 5 pitches to Guyer. All unnecessary.
11:32
Matt: Just consider … for the sake of considering:

Joe Maddon is managing the Cubs. The Cubs last won a World Series in 1908. The Cubs franchise have teams that have had epic meltdowns. They’re “the Cubs” for that reason.

Now consider that he may have those thoughts in his mind. He is a person, after all, not a machine. He may have wanted to ensure that he gave himself the least chance of being the next in a line of historic meltdowns. And he’ll live with Chapman at 20 pitches today, only to run out there tmrw. He is a closer, after all, he is used to throwing 20 pitches and then coming back out to throw again the next day.

Just consider all that … for consideration’s sake… thats all.
11:32
Dave Cameron: You just described risk aversion.
11:32
Dave Cameron: Risk aversion is not a good way to manage when you have to win two games in two days. Risk can be good!
11:33
Tyler: i really want the indians to score 6 runs, just for the humor in it
11:33
Matt: I know I did. But, it doesn’t mean that the human element does not come into play, here.
11:33
Homer Bailey: Zobroastrianism – the worship of Ben Zobrist
11:33
Dave Cameron: Yeah, if your argument is that Maddon made a bad choice because he’s human, okay. But that’s different than saying it wasn’t a bad choice.
11:33
bob: I don’t my manger thinking about a team’s history when he makes his decisions.
11:34
will: Dave, who do you favor tomorrow
11:34
Dave Cameron: Indians should be small favorites.
11:34
Cubs fan: Lolz
11:34
Zonk: Really dumb out at 2nd, down 6
11:34
Grork Mikkelton: Bad baserunning.
11:34
Eno Sarris: speaking of mistakes
11:34
Who_Is_Zorbist: DUMB!!!
11:34
Dave Cameron: Can we call that dumb?
11:34
Dave Cameron: Will anyone defend that?
11:34
Eno Sarris: TOOOOOOOTBLAN
11:34
Pij: Good throw tho
11:35
ChatzMcGee: Wow, that’ve been awesome if the score wasn’t 9-3.
11:35
Mark: What the hell was that throw. That was incredible!
11:35
Phoenix2042: Heyward with a couple nice plays today
11:35
Sonny: When you haven’t won since 1948 you stretch singles…
11:35
Eno Sarris: Put Heyward on the mound.
11:35
Zonk: Strop not that sharp, at least justifying why he’s been unused this postseason
11:36
benny: Dave seems like the guy that can make you question your own existence when he gets heated
11:36
Phoenix2042: Aaron Hicks threw from the outfield 105mph one time. You think he could pitch?
11:36
Dave Cameron: The funny thing is I’m perfectly calm. I’m just not going to appeal to authority on stuff like this.
11:36
Eno Sarris: Christian Bethancourt is heading to the mound because he could throw 95 with a decent change.
11:36
Dave Cameron: I’m not angry, or upset, or emotional in any real way. I just think Maddon made the wrong call and I have no problem saying so.
11:36
Eric: OVERMANAGING
11:36
anonymous: Are you serious, Joe? Let me go to bed.
11:36
Pro Vocative: Over-manage! *clap clap clapclapclap*
11:36
joe buck: he’s changing pitchers? is strop about to give up a 6 run homer?
11:37
benny: IM TIRED CMON
11:37
Pij: Why bother with the pitching change up by 6 with one out go go?
11:37
Tyler: Maddon is doing this just to piss off Joe West
11:38
Jerome Walton: Which team feels better going into game 7?
11:38
Dave Cameron: Cleveland, easy.
11:39
Guest: Kluber on second consecutive short rest v chapman on 62 pitches in last two games
11:39
Eno Sarris: I love baseball but an out here would be okay.
11:39
Dave Cameron: It’s Miller/Allen, with Kluber as an appetizer.
11:39
Hint of Rye: This argument has been an entertaining spot in an otherwise dull game so thanks everyone! Hopefully we get to be soon
11:40
Sonny: you have to feel good playing game 7 at home after your opponent stepped all over itself at the end of a 6 run win
11:40
Zmccoy: Thank God
11:40
senpaisanto: thank you, gents!
11:40
Eno Sarris: Thank you!
11:40
Dave Cameron: Alright, thanks for sticking with us through the boring and then super interesting game!
11:40
Dave Cameron: I’m heading off to write my THIS WAS DUMB post.
11:40
Dave Cameron: We’ll see how it ends up.
11:41
Dave Cameron: We’ll see you guys tomorrow for Game 7!





 

Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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John Autin
7 years ago

FWIW, Chapman’s career line on 0 days’ rest is great compared to other rest situations:
— his lowest BB%;
— his highest K-BB%;
— higher K% than all other rest situations combined.

Of course, we don’t have much record of him on no rest with 40+ pitches 3 days before. Maybe none? Closest I found was in May 2012: 35 pitches, a rest day, 17 pitches, then pitched the next day. Clean inning, 1 K.

Other interesting strings:
— August 2014 — 13 pitches one day, 36 the next, then pitched 3rd day in a row. Struck out the side to save a 1-0 game.
— July 2015 — 44 pitches, then pitched the next day. Clean inning, 2 K. But 2 days later, 3 hits and 2 walks in one inning.

I found 5 appearances in which he had thrown at least 50 pitches over the prior 3 days. In those 5 games, he fanned 9 of 20 batters, with 1 unintentional walk (plus an IBB), no homers. He did yield 5 hits and 3 runs, 2 earned. 3 saves, one blown/loss, and a loss from a tie game. None of those lasted more than 3 outs.

As of Game 7, Chapman will have thrown 62 pitches in the prior 3 days. His prior high in that count was 57.

But lastly … 20 games in which he was working a 3rd or 4th straight day (a reasonable facsimile of his workload going into Game 7). Totals: 2 runs in 20 IP, 10 hits, 7 walks, 37 Ks out of 75 batters.

I suspect that Chapman will be fine for an inning, maybe 2.

-1
JediHoyer
7 years ago
Reply to  John Autin

Any of those with a likely swollen ankle though?

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