2016 ZiPS Projections – Cleveland Indians

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Cleveland Indians. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Kansas City / New York AL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
One challenge to understanding how ZiPS’ position-player forecasts reveal Cleveland’s actual strength as a club — one challenge to understanding that hinges upon the health of Michael Brantley. The left fielder underwent surgery on his right shoulder following the season. The original prognosis called for Brantley to return in mid-April. More recent reports, however, suggest that the 28-year-old might not be ready until June. ZiPS has no knowledge of Brantley’s injury either way, projecting the him to record more than three wins over the the course of a full season. He might be capable only of producing half that total.

Very probably because his club reached the postseason — and because he recorded a number of home runs in support of that particular cause — Houston shortstop Carlos Correa won the American League’s rookie of the year award in 2015. By WAR, it wasn’t particularly close. Which is to say: by WAR, Cleveland’s Francisco Lindor (and not Correa) was pretty clearly the AL’s top rookie. ZiPS is less optimistic about Lindor’s 2016 campaign, calling for regression in the 22-year-old’s plate-discipline and batted-ball numbers. Still, the computer expects Lindor to lead Cleveland’s field players in wins.

Pitchers
Two years ago, voters gave Corey Kluber the Cy Young award despite the fact that his numbers, in some cases, were less impressive than Felix Hernandez’s. To some degree, that was an acnkowledgment of the benefits one receives from pitching in Safeco Park. To another degree, it was an acknowledgment of the disadvantages one faces while pitching in front of Cleveland’s defense. Whether the result of poor fielding or some other variable, a number of Cleveland’s top pitchers receive more promising FIP projections than ERA ones. For example, consider: Carlos Carrasco and Kluber himself are forecast to record a combined 70 FIP- but only 79 ERA-.

Nor are the club’s relievers immune from this influence, either. Right-hander Cody Allen is projected to post an ERA- mark that’s eight points higher than his FIP- one — this despite how, owing to a number of factors, relievers commonly outperform their fielding-independent numbers. By either measure, the Cleveland bullpen was among the league’s top-third in 2015. Given the forecasts here — in the context of the others that have been released — it would appear to profile more average-ish for 2016.

Bench/Prospects
Despite recording a .232 BABIP last season, infielder Jose Ramirez still managed to produce wins at a nearly average rate — this, on the strength of his contact and defensive abilities. He receives a basically league-average projection (568 PA, 1.9 zWAR) for 2016, as well. Just beneath Ramirez on the projection tables below is the club’s 2014 first-round selection and — according to ZiPS, at least — potentially most qualified center fielder. Bradley Zimmer, taken just a year and a half ago out of the University of San Francisco, profiles as nearly average (519 PA, 1.6 zWAR), compensating for his lack of contact by means of decent power and outfield defense. Among pitchers, there’s less immediately available assistance, although right-hander Shawn Armstrong (54.0 IP, 0.4 zWAR), who’s recorded 8.0 total major-league innings, seems prepared to log meaningful appearances.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Clevelands, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.