2016 ZiPS Projections – Los Angeles Dodgers

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Los Angeles Dodgers. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Arizona / Atlanta / Baltimore / Boston / Chicago NL / Cincinnati / Cleveland / Houston / Kansas City / Minnesota / New York AL / New York NL / Philadelphia / Pittsburgh / San Diego / Seattle / Texas / Toronto.

Batters
It’s not particularly common for one of the strongest teams in the majors to acquire a new best position player. Theoretically, such a club already features an assortment of talented players; otherwise, it wouldn’t have been one of the strongest teams in the majors. And yet, this is effectively what the Dodgers — who recorded the third-best Base Runs record in the league last year — it’s effectively what they’ll have done by deploying Corey Seager (643 PA, 3.9 zWAR) as their opening-day shortstop this spring. A projection represents an attempt to estimate a player’s true-talent level. Seager’s true talent appears to be more talented than everyone else’s.

There’s some uncertainty at the moment regarding new manager Dave Roberts‘ plans for the outfield. According to Dan Szymborski’s computer, allowing Joc Pederson (571 PA, 3.1 zWAR) to retain his starting center-field role would be part of the club’s optimal arrangement. As for second base, there doesn’t appear to be an optimal arrangement yet: both Enrique Hernandez (437 PA, 1.3 zWAR) and Chase Utley (464 PA, 1.1 zWAR) receive rather modest forecasts.

Pitchers
A haphazard inspection of the first 18 ZiPS posts to have been released thus far reveals that the top pitching projection — up to this point — belongs to Cubs right-hander Jake Arrieta (186.1 IP, 5.4 zWAR). Clayton Kershaw (215.0 IP, 7.8 zWAR) appears now to have surpassed that by more than two wins. One could occupy much of the day — or at least a longer-than-average lunch break — by devising superlatives for Kershaw and his (currently only hypothetical) 2016 season. Here’s one, though: Kershaw is forecast to produce a park-adjusted ERA and FIP marks roughly 10% better than Craig Kimbrel (whose forecast for 65 ERA- and 67 FIP-, compared to Kershaw’s 54 ERA- and 55 FIP-).

Also of note among the club’s starters is the prognosis for the newly acquired Kenta Maeda (177.0 IP, 3.4 zWAR). Despite what is generally regarded as merely averege arm speed — and despite having recorded numbers inferior to Yu Darvish and Masahiro Tanaka’s during their own respective NPB careers — Maeda nevertheless appears capable of serving as the club’s No. 2 starter, in terms of outcomes if not necessarily by name.

As for the bullpen, it appears to be an average unit, one which — for a club that has designs on a championship — would benefit from a new piece or two.

Bench/Prospects
As noted above, the club’s top prospect is also quite possibly its best position player. After Seager, catcher/maybe second baseman Austin Barnes (466 PA, 2.3 zWAR) also offers considerable promise. Omitted entirely from the depth-chart image below is Carl Crawford (309 PA, 0.7 zWAR), who profiles merely as a competent bench player now, rendering him less encouraging in that regard than even Trayce Thompson (577 PA, 1.9 zWAR). Among rookie-eligible pitchers, right-hander Zach Lee (128.2 IP, 1.5 zWAR) is forecast to provide the greatest production, while Jose De Leon (102.2 IP, 1.2 zWAR) and Julio Urias (87.1 IP, 1.1 zWAR) also profile as league-average starters already on a per-inning basis.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of the Dodgers, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.