2016 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City / Toronto.

Batters
Reason dictates that the 2016 season is unlikely to be a successful one for the Phillies in terms of “wins” on the “field” — nor do the forecasts produced by ZiPS contradict that notion. It’s rare, for example, for a starting position player to receive a negative WAR projection. This is precisely the case, however, for the club’s expected first-base platoon. After consecutive seasons and over 1,100 total plate appearances of below-average offensive production, Ryan Howard is projected once again to record a batting line roughly 10% worse than the league. Darin Ruf offers similar limitations from the right side of the plate.

The roster isn’t without some promise, however. Center fielder Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 selection from just last year, is expected to continue converting batted balls into hits at an uncommon rate. That, along with above-average defense, conspires to render him a nearly three-win player. Maikel Franco, for his part, appears likely to compensate for his defensive limitations at third base by means of an advanced bat.

Pitchers
As recently as 2012, Philadelphia possessed the National League’s top group of starters by WAR. A combination of injury and age and circumstance, however, has transformed the rotation into something less than excellent. The current centerpiece is right-hander Aaron Nola, who parlayed merely average arm speed but considerable polish and command into a successful debut this past year. After Nola, there’s less substance. Harrison and Hellickson have both experienced success at point. But not recently, and (per ZiPS) likely not in the near future, either.

With regard to relievers, whatever their weaknesses, the club features one of the league’s best in right-hander Ken Giles. While this Phillies’ projection list represents only the fourth such one published so far this offseason, among the first three clubs is Kansas City. Relative to that club’s closer, Wade Davis, Giles is well-acquitted. As one finds in the table below, Davis’s and Giles’ respective forecasts possess more similarities than differences.

Bench/Prospects
As one might expect from a club that has announced its intentions ro rebuild, the Phillies possess a number of players whose forecasts are encouraging relative to age and experience. Chief among these is shortstop J.P. Crawford, whose projected win total (2.6 zWAR in 541 PA) places him second among all players in the organization — this, despite the fact that Crawford enters just his age-21 season and has never recorded a plate appearance above Double-A. Four other players both (a) aged 24 or under and (b) yet to reach the majors feature projections of 0.7 zWAR or better: shortstop Malquin Canelo, catcher Andrew Knapp, outfielder Roman Quinn, and different outfielder Nick Williams. Right-hander Jake Thompson, acquired from Texas last year, also meets that pair of criteria.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Philadelphia, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

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Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.