2016 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City / Toronto.

Batters
Reason dictates that the 2016 season is unlikely to be a successful one for the Phillies in terms of “wins” on the “field” — nor do the forecasts produced by ZiPS contradict that notion. It’s rare, for example, for a starting position player to receive a negative WAR projection. This is precisely the case, however, for the club’s expected first-base platoon. After consecutive seasons and over 1,100 total plate appearances of below-average offensive production, Ryan Howard is projected once again to record a batting line roughly 10% worse than the league. Darin Ruf offers similar limitations from the right side of the plate.

The roster isn’t without some promise, however. Center fielder Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 selection from just last year, is expected to continue converting batted balls into hits at an uncommon rate. That, along with above-average defense, conspires to render him a nearly three-win player. Maikel Franco, for his part, appears likely to compensate for his defensive limitations at third base by means of an advanced bat.

Pitchers
As recently as 2012, Philadelphia possessed the National League’s top group of starters by WAR. A combination of injury and age and circumstance, however, has transformed the rotation into something less than excellent. The current centerpiece is right-hander Aaron Nola, who parlayed merely average arm speed but considerable polish and command into a successful debut this past year. After Nola, there’s less substance. Harrison and Hellickson have both experienced success at point. But not recently, and (per ZiPS) likely not in the near future, either.

With regard to relievers, whatever their weaknesses, the club features one of the league’s best in right-hander Ken Giles. While this Phillies’ projection list represents only the fourth such one published so far this offseason, among the first three clubs is Kansas City. Relative to that club’s closer, Wade Davis, Giles is well-acquitted. As one finds in the table below, Davis’s and Giles’ respective forecasts possess more similarities than differences.

Bench/Prospects
As one might expect from a club that has announced its intentions ro rebuild, the Phillies possess a number of players whose forecasts are encouraging relative to age and experience. Chief among these is shortstop J.P. Crawford, whose projected win total (2.6 zWAR in 541 PA) places him second among all players in the organization — this, despite the fact that Crawford enters just his age-21 season and has never recorded a plate appearance above Double-A. Four other players both (a) aged 24 or under and (b) yet to reach the majors feature projections of 0.7 zWAR or better: shortstop Malquin Canelo, catcher Andrew Knapp, outfielder Roman Quinn, and different outfielder Nick Williams. Right-hander Jake Thompson, acquired from Texas last year, also meets that pair of criteria.

2016 ZiPS Projections, Wade Davis vs. Ken Giles
Name IP K% BB% FIP- ERA- zWAR
Wade Davis 66.0 31.2% 8.6% 60 57 1.5
Ken Giles 73.0 32.1% 8.0% 59 63 1.6

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Philadelphia, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Phillies Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Odubel Herrera L 24 CF 567 65 145 28 4 8 42 17 9
J.P. Crawford L 21 SS 541 65 123 22 4 11 53 12 8
Maikel Franco R 23 3B 560 73 141 34 4 21 84 2 0
Aaron Altherr R 25 RF 576 67 123 31 6 16 68 14 5
Cameron Rupp R 27 C 315 30 63 12 1 9 32 0 1
Andrew Knapp B 24 C 427 48 89 21 3 10 45 3 3
Brian Bogusevic L 32 CF 453 53 102 16 3 12 46 12 4
Freddy Galvis B 26 SS 478 49 110 17 5 8 47 5 1
Angelys Nina R 27 2B 462 41 112 18 4 6 37 11 7
Malquin Canelo R 21 SS 472 51 104 19 3 10 47 10 7
Erik Kratz R 36 C 212 23 45 11 0 7 26 0 0
Nick Williams L 22 CF 522 58 120 23 5 15 57 8 8
Cesar Hernandez B 26 2B 500 58 123 18 7 2 39 17 7
Roman Quinn B 23 CF 350 40 78 8 4 6 30 22 11
Jorge Alfaro R 23 C 365 40 77 17 3 11 41 3 4
Carlos Ruiz R 37 C 336 30 68 16 1 3 26 2 1
Emmanuel Burriss B 31 SS 416 42 96 12 4 4 31 10 6
Peter Bourjos R 29 CF 246 33 49 8 3 5 19 6 4
Andres Blanco B 32 SS 284 29 64 15 2 5 22 2 3
Cody Asche L 26 LF 545 60 131 28 3 15 62 4 2
Brock Stassi L 26 1B 458 52 104 18 2 9 46 3 2
Tyler Pastornicky R 26 3B 375 38 89 15 2 3 28 5 3
Kelly Dugan L 25 RF 397 43 86 17 2 8 38 1 1
Gabriel Lino R 23 C 340 29 65 15 0 5 27 0 3
Jordan Danks L 29 LF 438 45 87 18 0 10 41 5 3
Darnell Sweeney B 25 2B 574 62 120 24 5 12 55 19 12
Domonic Brown L 28 RF 492 53 112 22 3 14 66 8 3
Russ Canzler R 30 1B 465 51 101 22 2 14 52 1 2
Cord Phelps B 29 2B 412 42 85 13 2 6 35 4 3
Aaron Brown L 24 CF 385 42 81 15 3 10 39 7 8
Ryan Jackson R 28 SS 354 29 71 11 1 3 23 2 1
Darin Ruf R 29 1B 400 44 86 19 0 13 45 1 0
Chris McGuiness L 28 1B 436 44 87 21 1 8 40 1 2
Carlos Tocci R 20 CF 571 56 123 20 4 6 42 11 14
Edgar Duran B 25 SS 339 30 69 12 2 3 24 4 4
Brodie Greene R 28 2B 393 36 84 14 1 2 25 5 2
Tommy Joseph R 24 1B 186 21 41 9 0 6 23 0 0
Tyler Henson R 28 2B 437 43 90 23 3 6 42 14 5
Jayson Nix R 33 2B 247 22 48 9 1 3 18 4 3
Destin Hood R 26 LF 416 40 86 18 4 10 40 5 3
Ryan Howard L 36 1B 427 46 88 19 1 17 67 0 0
Jeff Francoeur R 32 RF 347 35 80 16 1 11 41 1 2
Brian Pointer L 24 LF 420 45 71 16 2 11 40 8 5

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Odubel Herrera 567 5.3% 23.5% .115 .357 .277 .324 .392 .323
J.P. Crawford 541 9.2% 17.9% .130 .296 .254 .325 .384 .320
Maikel Franco 560 5.5% 16.4% .201 .291 .270 .313 .471 .334
Aaron Altherr 576 6.8% 28.5% .174 .307 .235 .293 .409 .309
Cameron Rupp 315 7.0% 29.5% .142 .287 .218 .279 .360 .278
Andrew Knapp 427 7.0% 31.1% .146 .317 .228 .290 .374 .296
Brian Bogusevic 453 7.1% 23.6% .140 .303 .246 .305 .386 .308
Freddy Galvis 478 4.8% 18.2% .115 .290 .248 .286 .363 .281
Angelys Nina 462 4.1% 15.8% .101 .294 .256 .289 .357 .290
Malquin Canelo 472 5.1% 24.2% .125 .294 .235 .277 .360 .285
Erik Kratz 212 7.1% 21.2% .166 .264 .233 .288 .399 .294
Nick Williams 522 4.0% 28.0% .158 .313 .242 .278 .400 .302
Cesar Hernandez 500 7.2% 19.8% .083 .338 .269 .323 .352 .307
Roman Quinn 350 6.0% 24.9% .106 .316 .244 .296 .350 .306
Jorge Alfaro 365 3.6% 29.9% .164 .297 .226 .274 .390 .295
Carlos Ruiz 336 8.9% 14.6% .091 .265 .231 .314 .322 .285
Emmanuel Burriss 416 5.8% 12.5% .084 .281 .252 .303 .336 .289
Peter Bourjos 246 7.3% 26.8% .133 .297 .225 .298 .358 .291
Andres Blanco 284 6.3% 17.6% .132 .289 .248 .304 .380 .298
Cody Asche 545 6.4% 23.1% .157 .318 .260 .311 .417 .313
Brock Stassi 458 8.3% 16.8% .118 .287 .252 .315 .370 .301
Tyler Pastornicky 375 5.3% 14.9% .080 .296 .256 .298 .336 .284
Kelly Dugan 397 5.3% 30.2% .124 .329 .237 .295 .361 .289
Gabriel Lino 340 5.0% 32.4% .095 .293 .205 .248 .300 .242
Jordan Danks 438 7.5% 31.3% .120 .302 .218 .279 .338 .276
Darnell Sweeney 574 7.5% 28.7% .135 .311 .230 .291 .365 .298
Domonic Brown 492 6.5% 19.1% .154 .280 .246 .297 .400 .304
Russ Canzler 465 6.7% 23.9% .158 .282 .235 .286 .393 .296
Cord Phelps 412 8.5% 20.1% .095 .277 .228 .295 .323 .278
Aaron Brown 385 4.2% 29.9% .143 .302 .226 .273 .369 .290
Ryan Jackson 354 7.9% 23.2% .069 .292 .225 .288 .294 .257
Darin Ruf 400 7.5% 24.8% .162 .291 .240 .308 .402 .309
Chris McGuiness 436 10.1% 21.8% .121 .276 .225 .306 .346 .291
Carlos Tocci 571 4.0% 22.8% .086 .293 .231 .272 .317 .270
Edgar Duran 339 4.7% 21.8% .080 .280 .222 .267 .302 .253
Brodie Greene 393 6.4% 17.0% .061 .281 .234 .286 .295 .260
Tommy Joseph 186 3.8% 22.0% .155 .273 .236 .276 .391 .288
Tyler Henson 437 5.0% 30.4% .118 .315 .224 .269 .342 .273
Jayson Nix 247 5.3% 27.5% .089 .285 .211 .258 .300 .252
Destin Hood 416 4.6% 32.7% .143 .308 .221 .260 .364 .275
Ryan Howard 427 7.0% 29.3% .185 .283 .226 .286 .411 .296
Jeff Francoeur 347 4.0% 22.5% .155 .285 .243 .277 .398 .293
Brian Pointer 420 8.8% 37.9% .142 .293 .190 .273 .332 .277

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Odubel Herrera 567 4.7 97 7 2.8 Lloyd Moseby
J.P. Crawford 541 4.4 96 3 2.6 Marcus Giles
Maikel Franco 560 5.5 113 -8 2.3 Aubrey Huff
Aaron Altherr 576 4.3 92 8 1.6 Corey Hart
Cameron Rupp 315 3.4 75 3 1.0 Gilberto Reyes
Andrew Knapp 427 3.7 82 -5 1.0 Eddie Taubensee
Brian Bogusevic 453 4.3 90 -4 1.0 Lou Collier
Freddy Galvis 478 3.8 78 -1 0.9 Ruben Santana
Angelys Nina 462 3.7 78 4 0.8 Kenny Perez
Malquin Canelo 472 3.4 75 1 0.8 Jeff Moronko
Erik Kratz 212 4.0 88 -1 0.8 Mike Macfarlane
Nick Williams 522 3.8 85 -2 0.7 Lloyd Moseby
Cesar Hernandez 500 4.3 87 -5 0.7 Manuel Lee
Roman Quinn 350 3.7 78 2 0.7 Willie McGee
Jorge Alfaro 365 3.6 81 -5 0.6 David Ross
Carlos Ruiz 336 3.6 77 -4 0.6 Rick Cerone
Emmanuel Burriss 416 3.6 77 -2 0.6 Jose Uribe
Peter Bourjos 246 3.6 81 2 0.5 Rich Thompson
Andres Blanco 284 4.0 88 -5 0.3 Dave Berg
Cody Asche 545 4.7 99 -8 0.2 Jacque Jones
Brock Stassi 458 4.2 89 2 0.2 Francisco Melendez
Tyler Pastornicky 375 3.6 75 -2 0.1 Al Pedrique
Kelly Dugan 397 3.7 81 2 0.1 Rick Sofield
Gabriel Lino 340 2.3 51 3 0.0 Doug Lindsey
Jordan Danks 438 3.2 70 6 0.0 Matt Padgett
Darnell Sweeney 574 3.6 80 -7 0.0 Jed Hansen
Domonic Brown 492 4.3 91 -5 -0.1 Frank Jacobs
Russ Canzler 465 3.9 86 2 -0.1 Simon Pond
Cord Phelps 412 3.3 71 -2 -0.1 Casey Benjamin
Aaron Brown 385 3.3 76 -3 -0.1 Shawn Jeter
Ryan Jackson 354 3.0 62 -2 -0.2 Douglas Bernier
Darin Ruf 400 4.4 95 -5 -0.2 Ron Wright
Chris McGuiness 436 3.6 80 2 -0.3 Kevin Burford
Carlos Tocci 571 2.7 63 5 -0.3 Luis Montanez
Edgar Duran 339 2.7 57 0 -0.3 Roger Burnett
Brodie Greene 393 3.0 62 0 -0.3 Justin Gemoll
Tommy Joseph 186 3.8 82 -2 -0.4 Steve Hacker
Tyler Henson 437 3.3 68 -4 -0.4 Dan DeMent
Jayson Nix 247 2.6 54 0 -0.5 Chris Petersen
Destin Hood 416 3.3 71 1 -0.6 Brian Gordon
Ryan Howard 427 4.1 90 -6 -0.7 Lee Stevens
Jeff Francoeur 347 3.8 84 -6 -0.7 Tim Costo
Brian Pointer 420 3.0 66 -1 -0.9 Randy Salava

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Aaron Nola R 23 30 30 175.0 153 37 24 176 87 81
Ken Giles R 25 71 0 73.0 96 24 5 56 21 20
Cliff Lee L 37 15 15 101.3 88 23 11 105 48 45
Jeremy Hellickson R 29 26 25 133.7 114 38 18 140 72 67
Jake Thompson R 22 24 24 125.3 105 44 15 130 67 63
Michael Mariot R 27 40 0 59.3 65 19 6 53 25 23
Aaron Harang R 38 25 25 148.0 100 49 18 161 83 78
Jerad Eickhoff R 25 27 27 149.0 131 51 24 152 85 79
Dalier Hinojosa R 30 44 0 68.0 69 30 7 61 31 29
Luis Garcia R 29 61 0 63.0 63 30 5 59 29 27
Dan Otero R 31 58 0 70.7 46 12 6 76 33 31
Reinier Roibal R 27 32 5 60.0 54 16 8 60 31 29
Kenneth Roberts L 28 43 0 58.7 44 14 5 61 28 26
Chris Leroux R 32 19 7 61.3 48 23 8 64 34 32
Jeanmar Gomez R 28 55 0 66.3 47 21 6 69 32 30
Edubray Ramos R 23 39 0 53.7 48 16 6 52 26 24
Matt Harrison L 30 7 7 37.7 24 16 4 41 21 20
Miguel A. Gonzalez R 29 20 9 58.0 45 23 7 60 33 31
Elvis Araujo L 24 49 0 46.7 49 24 4 42 22 21
A.J. Achter R 27 52 0 71.3 72 24 10 67 35 33
James Russell L 30 63 0 48.3 38 15 5 49 24 22
Jonathan Pettibone R 25 13 13 66.0 40 23 7 75 39 36
Jeff Francoeur R 32 4 0 4.3 4 2 1 4 2 2
Ethan Martin R 27 30 2 54.3 43 23 6 55 29 27
Mario Hollands L 27 36 0 34.0 28 14 3 34 17 16
Frank Herrmann R 32 34 0 42.3 38 13 5 43 22 21
Chad Billingsley R 31 7 7 36.0 22 11 6 42 24 22
Dustin McGowan R 34 41 3 57.7 48 31 8 58 33 31
Stephen Shackleford R 27 51 0 57.3 52 30 6 56 31 29
Hector Neris R 27 57 0 75.7 71 30 10 74 40 37
Colton Murray R 26 54 0 75.3 75 35 9 72 40 37
Greg Burke R 33 46 0 56.7 59 22 9 56 31 29
Kevin Correia R 35 19 17 102.3 63 27 15 119 63 59
David Buchanan R 27 27 27 146.0 88 47 18 168 90 84
Jimmy Cordero R 24 39 0 53.0 50 28 7 53 31 29
Seth Rosin R 27 48 0 68.7 52 21 9 74 39 36
Ben Lively R 24 25 25 134.0 110 50 23 144 85 79
Jerome Williams R 34 31 18 119.3 80 33 18 137 75 70
John Richy R 23 23 18 114.7 79 43 18 130 74 69
Zach Eflin R 22 24 24 124.0 71 31 20 146 80 75
Tom Windle L 24 30 18 104.0 70 53 14 116 68 64
Ryan O’Sullivan R 25 41 4 71.0 44 34 9 80 46 43
Jason Berken R 32 24 17 116.7 72 39 20 136 78 73
Adam Morgan L 26 20 20 101.7 60 34 18 118 70 65
Severino Gonzalez R 23 24 24 132.7 87 30 24 157 90 84
Alec Asher R 24 29 29 146.7 113 43 31 168 101 94
Jesse Biddle L 24 21 21 106.7 83 58 20 119 77 72
Joely Rodriguez L 24 30 20 121.3 71 52 19 143 86 80
Anthony Vasquez L 29 23 18 104.0 62 41 20 124 76 71
Nick Pivetta R 23 24 23 116.3 86 58 25 135 87 81

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Aaron Nola 175.0 738 20.7% 5.0% .295 4.17 3.95 107 99
Ken Giles 73.0 299 32.1% 8.0% .295 2.47 2.37 63 59
Cliff Lee 101.3 432 20.4% 5.3% .305 4.00 3.58 102 90
Jeremy Hellickson 133.7 579 19.7% 6.6% .301 4.51 4.11 115 103
Jake Thompson 125.3 550 19.1% 8.0% .304 4.52 4.26 116 107
Michael Mariot 59.3 250 26.0% 7.6% .298 3.49 3.30 89 83
Aaron Harang 148.0 654 15.3% 7.5% .295 4.74 4.39 121 110
Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 650 20.2% 7.8% .293 4.77 4.65 122 116
Dalier Hinojosa 68.0 295 23.4% 10.2% .290 3.84 3.88 98 97
Luis Garcia 63.0 278 22.7% 10.8% .302 3.86 3.48 99 87
Dan Otero 70.7 300 15.3% 4.0% .299 3.95 3.43 101 86
Reinier Roibal 60.0 256 21.1% 6.3% .297 4.35 3.95 111 99
Kenneth Roberts 58.7 251 17.5% 5.6% .303 3.99 3.59 102 90
Chris Leroux 61.3 271 17.7% 8.5% .296 4.70 4.52 120 113
Jeanmar Gomez 66.3 289 16.3% 7.3% .296 4.07 3.74 104 94
Edubray Ramos 53.7 229 21.0% 7.0% .295 4.02 3.78 103 95
Matt Harrison 37.7 170 14.1% 9.4% .296 4.78 4.62 122 116
Miguel A. Gonzalez 58.0 257 17.5% 8.9% .296 4.81 4.47 123 112
Elvis Araujo 46.7 206 23.8% 11.6% .297 4.05 3.72 104 93
A.J. Achter 71.3 305 23.6% 7.9% .291 4.16 4.06 106 102
James Russell 48.3 209 18.2% 7.2% .294 4.10 3.74 105 94
Jonathan Pettibone 66.0 296 13.5% 7.8% .305 4.91 4.42 126 111
Jeff Francoeur 4.3 19 21.2% 10.6% .275 4.15 6.42 106 161
Ethan Martin 54.3 241 17.8% 9.5% .295 4.47 4.40 114 110
Mario Hollands 34.0 150 18.7% 9.3% .298 4.24 3.81 108 95
Frank Herrmann 42.3 183 20.8% 7.1% .304 4.46 3.97 114 99
Chad Billingsley 36.0 161 13.7% 6.8% .298 5.50 5.11 141 128
Dustin McGowan 57.7 262 18.3% 11.8% .289 4.84 4.97 124 124
Stephen Shackleford 57.3 258 20.2% 11.6% .300 4.55 4.38 116 110
Hector Neris 75.7 331 21.4% 9.1% .298 4.40 4.35 112 109
Colton Murray 75.3 333 22.5% 10.5% .300 4.42 4.24 113 106
Greg Burke 56.7 248 23.8% 8.9% .303 4.61 4.41 118 111
Kevin Correia 102.3 453 13.9% 6.0% .302 5.19 4.69 133 118
David Buchanan 146.0 653 13.5% 7.2% .305 5.18 4.65 132 117
Jimmy Cordero 53.0 240 20.8% 11.7% .303 4.92 4.75 126 119
Seth Rosin 68.7 301 17.3% 7.0% .302 4.72 4.36 121 109
Ben Lively 134.0 596 18.5% 8.4% .299 5.31 5.05 136 127
Jerome Williams 119.3 528 15.2% 6.3% .304 5.28 4.69 135 118
John Richy 114.7 517 15.3% 8.3% .303 5.42 5.11 139 128
Zach Eflin 124.0 549 12.9% 5.6% .300 5.44 5.01 139 126
Tom Windle 104.0 481 14.6% 11.0% .302 5.54 5.24 142 131
Ryan O’Sullivan 71.0 327 13.5% 10.4% .301 5.45 5.13 139 129
Jason Berken 116.7 525 13.7% 7.4% .300 5.63 5.31 144 133
Adam Morgan 101.7 457 13.1% 7.4% .294 5.75 5.40 147 135
Severino Gonzalez 132.7 585 14.9% 5.1% .305 5.70 5.06 146 127
Alec Asher 146.7 651 17.4% 6.6% .300 5.77 5.39 148 135
Jesse Biddle 106.7 497 16.7% 11.7% .299 6.07 5.82 155 146
Joely Rodriguez 121.3 559 12.7% 9.3% .303 5.93 5.44 152 136
Anthony Vasquez 104.0 477 13.0% 8.6% .299 6.14 5.80 157 145
Nick Pivetta 116.3 542 15.9% 10.7% .301 6.27 6.18 160 155

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Aaron Nola 175.0 7.87 1.90 1.23 90 1.8 Bill Wegman
Ken Giles 73.0 11.84 2.96 0.62 152 1.6 Gregg Olson
Cliff Lee 101.3 7.82 2.04 0.98 94 1.2 Mark Langston
Jeremy Hellickson 133.7 7.67 2.56 1.21 83 0.8 Tim Redding
Jake Thompson 125.3 7.54 3.16 1.08 83 0.7 Bubba Nelson
Michael Mariot 59.3 9.87 2.88 0.91 107 0.5 Felix Rodriguez
Aaron Harang 148.0 6.08 2.98 1.09 79 0.4 Bob Welch
Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 7.91 3.08 1.45 78 0.3 Tony Menendez
Dalier Hinojosa 68.0 9.13 3.97 0.93 97 0.3 Marc Wilkins
Luis Garcia 63.0 9.00 4.29 0.71 97 0.2 Roy Corcoran
Dan Otero 70.7 5.86 1.53 0.76 95 0.2 Ron Taylor
Reinier Roibal 60.0 8.10 2.40 1.20 86 0.2 Lance McCullers
Kenneth Roberts 58.7 6.75 2.15 0.77 94 0.1 Will McEnaney
Chris Leroux 61.3 7.05 3.38 1.17 80 0.1 Vladimir Nunez
Jeanmar Gomez 66.3 6.38 2.85 0.81 92 0.1 Jimmy Myers
Edubray Ramos 53.7 8.04 2.68 1.01 93 0.1 Rory Shortell
Matt Harrison 37.7 5.73 3.82 0.95 78 0.1 Greg Mathews
Miguel A. Gonzalez 58.0 6.98 3.57 1.09 78 0.1 Jamie Brewington
Elvis Araujo 46.7 9.44 4.63 0.77 92 0.0 Buzz Oliver
A.J. Achter 71.3 9.09 3.03 1.26 90 0.0 Justin Speier
James Russell 48.3 7.08 2.80 0.93 91 0.0 Dan Morogiello
Jonathan Pettibone 66.0 5.45 3.14 0.95 76 0.0 Daniel Haigwood
Jeff Francoeur 4.3 8.37 4.19 2.09 90 0.0 Mike Barlow
Ethan Martin 54.3 7.13 3.81 0.99 84 0.0 Mike Zimmerman
Mario Hollands 34.0 7.41 3.71 0.79 88 -0.1 Joey Long
Frank Herrmann 42.3 8.09 2.77 1.06 84 -0.2 Pete Walker
Chad Billingsley 36.0 5.50 2.75 1.50 68 -0.2 John DeSilva
Dustin McGowan 57.7 7.49 4.84 1.25 77 -0.3 Johnny Klippstein
Stephen Shackleford 57.3 8.17 4.71 0.94 82 -0.3 Edwardo Sierra
Hector Neris 75.7 8.44 3.57 1.19 85 -0.3 Todd Fischer
Colton Murray 75.3 8.96 4.18 1.08 85 -0.3 Steve Chitren
Greg Burke 56.7 9.37 3.49 1.43 81 -0.3 Bob Long
Kevin Correia 102.3 5.54 2.38 1.32 72 -0.3 Kevin Jarvis
David Buchanan 146.0 5.42 2.90 1.11 72 -0.4 Brad Knox
Jimmy Cordero 53.0 8.49 4.75 1.19 76 -0.5 Brad Tweedlie
Seth Rosin 68.7 6.81 2.75 1.18 79 -0.5 Neal McDade
Ben Lively 134.0 7.39 3.36 1.54 71 -0.6 Jim Blueberg
Jerome Williams 119.3 6.04 2.49 1.36 71 -0.7 R.A. Dickey
John Richy 114.7 6.20 3.37 1.41 69 -0.8 Patrick Coogan
Zach Eflin 124.0 5.15 2.25 1.45 69 -0.8 Matt Vasquez
Tom Windle 104.0 6.06 4.59 1.21 68 -0.9 Juan Cedeno
Ryan O’Sullivan 71.0 5.58 4.31 1.14 69 -0.9 J.D. Brammer
Jason Berken 116.7 5.55 3.01 1.54 66 -1.1 R.A. Dickey
Adam Morgan 101.7 5.31 3.01 1.59 65 -1.1 Jason Pierson
Severino Gonzalez 132.7 5.90 2.03 1.63 66 -1.4 Dane Johnson
Alec Asher 146.7 6.93 2.64 1.90 65 -1.5 Mike Redding
Jesse Biddle 106.7 7.00 4.89 1.69 62 -1.6 Tom Singer
Joely Rodriguez 121.3 5.27 3.86 1.41 63 -1.7 Jeff Hundley
Anthony Vasquez 104.0 5.37 3.55 1.73 61 -1.7 Mike Prochaska
Nick Pivetta 116.3 6.66 4.49 1.93 60 -2.1 Bill Malloy

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2016 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
Only Glove, No Love
Guest
Only Glove, No Love

These guys are on their way. Wow there is some good good stuff there. That OF when Asche sits will rival anyone in the field. And when Crawford hits that IF? Very nice.

But what magic powers of persuasion does Howard have? They should pay him more to just not come to his job anymore. Crushing at home against RH and being useless othrwise is not worth the bench spot.

esdrtfyu
Guest
esdrtfyu

There is absolutely no change whatsoever in how the Phillies are run.

Bill Giles put the ownership group together with people who think like him 35 years ago. Guess what? Bill Giles is still there. He took part in the hiring of MacPhail and Klentak both. He was at the press conference announcing the hiring of Klentak.

35 Years.

Jim Thome and Cliff Lee

That’s it.

35 Years.

Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco, the only two starting quality players signed out of Latin America. Ruiz was signed out of Panama for eight thousand dollars. Need that in numerical form? $8,000- Eight Stacks.

Maikel Franco was signed for $100,000- That’s one hundred thousand American dollars. One hundred Stacks.

The Red Sox paid $63 million to sign Yoan Moncada. The Phillies paid $108,000- to sign both Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco.

Two real free agents and two starting position players from Latin America signed for nothing.

The Phillies Way is unchanged. They will sit in the cellar until they collect enough free talent in the MLB Plantation Slave Auction held every June. These young slave/intern players will be exploited to the max by the Phillies bloodsucking ownership cabal. For seven years they will make these bloodsucking criminals massive profits. If a few become fan favorites and the crowds are still huge as they near free agency then they will be signed to short, team friendly deals. If any have slipped through their screening process and turn out to be normal players seeking long contracts they will be demonized and booted out the door.

The Phillies after telling lies to their fan base from 2012 onward finally admitted they were “rebuilding”. The truth of the matter is they are already planning their next rebuild as they conduct this one.

THAT is The Phillies Way.

Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
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