2016 ZiPS Projections – Philadelphia Phillies by Carson Cistulli December 9, 2015 After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Philadelphia Phillies. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski. Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City / Toronto. Batters Reason dictates that the 2016 season is unlikely to be a successful one for the Phillies in terms of “wins” on the “field” — nor do the forecasts produced by ZiPS contradict that notion. It’s rare, for example, for a starting position player to receive a negative WAR projection. This is precisely the case, however, for the club’s expected first-base platoon. After consecutive seasons and over 1,100 total plate appearances of below-average offensive production, Ryan Howard is projected once again to record a batting line roughly 10% worse than the league. Darin Ruf offers similar limitations from the right side of the plate. The roster isn’t without some promise, however. Center fielder Odubel Herrera, a Rule 5 selection from just last year, is expected to continue converting batted balls into hits at an uncommon rate. That, along with above-average defense, conspires to render him a nearly three-win player. Maikel Franco, for his part, appears likely to compensate for his defensive limitations at third base by means of an advanced bat. Pitchers As recently as 2012, Philadelphia possessed the National League’s top group of starters by WAR. A combination of injury and age and circumstance, however, has transformed the rotation into something less than excellent. The current centerpiece is right-hander Aaron Nola, who parlayed merely average arm speed but considerable polish and command into a successful debut this past year. After Nola, there’s less substance. Harrison and Hellickson have both experienced success at point. But not recently, and (per ZiPS) likely not in the near future, either. With regard to relievers, whatever their weaknesses, the club features one of the league’s best in right-hander Ken Giles. While this Phillies’ projection list represents only the fourth such one published so far this offseason, among the first three clubs is Kansas City. Relative to that club’s closer, Wade Davis, Giles is well-acquitted. As one finds in the table below, Davis’s and Giles’ respective forecasts possess more similarities than differences. Bench/Prospects As one might expect from a club that has announced its intentions ro rebuild, the Phillies possess a number of players whose forecasts are encouraging relative to age and experience. Chief among these is shortstop J.P. Crawford, whose projected win total (2.6 zWAR in 541 PA) places him second among all players in the organization — this, despite the fact that Crawford enters just his age-21 season and has never recorded a plate appearance above Double-A. Four other players both (a) aged 24 or under and (b) yet to reach the majors feature projections of 0.7 zWAR or better: shortstop Malquin Canelo, catcher Andrew Knapp, outfielder Roman Quinn, and different outfielder Nick Williams. Right-hander Jake Thompson, acquired from Texas last year, also meets that pair of criteria. 2016 ZiPS Projections, Wade Davis vs. Ken Giles Name IP K% BB% FIP- ERA- zWAR Wade Davis 66.0 31.2% 8.6% 60 57 1.5 Ken Giles 73.0 32.1% 8.0% 59 63 1.6 Depth Chart Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Philadelphia, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image. Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning. Batters, Counting Stats Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS Odubel Herrera L 24 CF 567 65 145 28 4 8 42 17 9 J.P. Crawford L 21 SS 541 65 123 22 4 11 53 12 8 Maikel Franco R 23 3B 560 73 141 34 4 21 84 2 0 Aaron Altherr R 25 RF 576 67 123 31 6 16 68 14 5 Cameron Rupp R 27 C 315 30 63 12 1 9 32 0 1 Andrew Knapp B 24 C 427 48 89 21 3 10 45 3 3 Brian Bogusevic L 32 CF 453 53 102 16 3 12 46 12 4 Freddy Galvis B 26 SS 478 49 110 17 5 8 47 5 1 Angelys Nina R 27 2B 462 41 112 18 4 6 37 11 7 Malquin Canelo R 21 SS 472 51 104 19 3 10 47 10 7 Erik Kratz R 36 C 212 23 45 11 0 7 26 0 0 Nick Williams L 22 CF 522 58 120 23 5 15 57 8 8 Cesar Hernandez B 26 2B 500 58 123 18 7 2 39 17 7 Roman Quinn B 23 CF 350 40 78 8 4 6 30 22 11 Jorge Alfaro R 23 C 365 40 77 17 3 11 41 3 4 Carlos Ruiz R 37 C 336 30 68 16 1 3 26 2 1 Emmanuel Burriss B 31 SS 416 42 96 12 4 4 31 10 6 Peter Bourjos R 29 CF 246 33 49 8 3 5 19 6 4 Andres Blanco B 32 SS 284 29 64 15 2 5 22 2 3 Cody Asche L 26 LF 545 60 131 28 3 15 62 4 2 Brock Stassi L 26 1B 458 52 104 18 2 9 46 3 2 Tyler Pastornicky R 26 3B 375 38 89 15 2 3 28 5 3 Kelly Dugan L 25 RF 397 43 86 17 2 8 38 1 1 Gabriel Lino R 23 C 340 29 65 15 0 5 27 0 3 Jordan Danks L 29 LF 438 45 87 18 0 10 41 5 3 Darnell Sweeney B 25 2B 574 62 120 24 5 12 55 19 12 Domonic Brown L 28 RF 492 53 112 22 3 14 66 8 3 Russ Canzler R 30 1B 465 51 101 22 2 14 52 1 2 Cord Phelps B 29 2B 412 42 85 13 2 6 35 4 3 Aaron Brown L 24 CF 385 42 81 15 3 10 39 7 8 Ryan Jackson R 28 SS 354 29 71 11 1 3 23 2 1 Darin Ruf R 29 1B 400 44 86 19 0 13 45 1 0 Chris McGuiness L 28 1B 436 44 87 21 1 8 40 1 2 Carlos Tocci R 20 CF 571 56 123 20 4 6 42 11 14 Edgar Duran B 25 SS 339 30 69 12 2 3 24 4 4 Brodie Greene R 28 2B 393 36 84 14 1 2 25 5 2 Tommy Joseph R 24 1B 186 21 41 9 0 6 23 0 0 Tyler Henson R 28 2B 437 43 90 23 3 6 42 14 5 Jayson Nix R 33 2B 247 22 48 9 1 3 18 4 3 Destin Hood R 26 LF 416 40 86 18 4 10 40 5 3 Ryan Howard L 36 1B 427 46 88 19 1 17 67 0 0 Jeff Francoeur R 32 RF 347 35 80 16 1 11 41 1 2 Brian Pointer L 24 LF 420 45 71 16 2 11 40 8 5 *** Batters, Rates and Averages Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA Odubel Herrera 567 5.3% 23.5% .115 .357 .277 .324 .392 .323 J.P. Crawford 541 9.2% 17.9% .130 .296 .254 .325 .384 .320 Maikel Franco 560 5.5% 16.4% .201 .291 .270 .313 .471 .334 Aaron Altherr 576 6.8% 28.5% .174 .307 .235 .293 .409 .309 Cameron Rupp 315 7.0% 29.5% .142 .287 .218 .279 .360 .278 Andrew Knapp 427 7.0% 31.1% .146 .317 .228 .290 .374 .296 Brian Bogusevic 453 7.1% 23.6% .140 .303 .246 .305 .386 .308 Freddy Galvis 478 4.8% 18.2% .115 .290 .248 .286 .363 .281 Angelys Nina 462 4.1% 15.8% .101 .294 .256 .289 .357 .290 Malquin Canelo 472 5.1% 24.2% .125 .294 .235 .277 .360 .285 Erik Kratz 212 7.1% 21.2% .166 .264 .233 .288 .399 .294 Nick Williams 522 4.0% 28.0% .158 .313 .242 .278 .400 .302 Cesar Hernandez 500 7.2% 19.8% .083 .338 .269 .323 .352 .307 Roman Quinn 350 6.0% 24.9% .106 .316 .244 .296 .350 .306 Jorge Alfaro 365 3.6% 29.9% .164 .297 .226 .274 .390 .295 Carlos Ruiz 336 8.9% 14.6% .091 .265 .231 .314 .322 .285 Emmanuel Burriss 416 5.8% 12.5% .084 .281 .252 .303 .336 .289 Peter Bourjos 246 7.3% 26.8% .133 .297 .225 .298 .358 .291 Andres Blanco 284 6.3% 17.6% .132 .289 .248 .304 .380 .298 Cody Asche 545 6.4% 23.1% .157 .318 .260 .311 .417 .313 Brock Stassi 458 8.3% 16.8% .118 .287 .252 .315 .370 .301 Tyler Pastornicky 375 5.3% 14.9% .080 .296 .256 .298 .336 .284 Kelly Dugan 397 5.3% 30.2% .124 .329 .237 .295 .361 .289 Gabriel Lino 340 5.0% 32.4% .095 .293 .205 .248 .300 .242 Jordan Danks 438 7.5% 31.3% .120 .302 .218 .279 .338 .276 Darnell Sweeney 574 7.5% 28.7% .135 .311 .230 .291 .365 .298 Domonic Brown 492 6.5% 19.1% .154 .280 .246 .297 .400 .304 Russ Canzler 465 6.7% 23.9% .158 .282 .235 .286 .393 .296 Cord Phelps 412 8.5% 20.1% .095 .277 .228 .295 .323 .278 Aaron Brown 385 4.2% 29.9% .143 .302 .226 .273 .369 .290 Ryan Jackson 354 7.9% 23.2% .069 .292 .225 .288 .294 .257 Darin Ruf 400 7.5% 24.8% .162 .291 .240 .308 .402 .309 Chris McGuiness 436 10.1% 21.8% .121 .276 .225 .306 .346 .291 Carlos Tocci 571 4.0% 22.8% .086 .293 .231 .272 .317 .270 Edgar Duran 339 4.7% 21.8% .080 .280 .222 .267 .302 .253 Brodie Greene 393 6.4% 17.0% .061 .281 .234 .286 .295 .260 Tommy Joseph 186 3.8% 22.0% .155 .273 .236 .276 .391 .288 Tyler Henson 437 5.0% 30.4% .118 .315 .224 .269 .342 .273 Jayson Nix 247 5.3% 27.5% .089 .285 .211 .258 .300 .252 Destin Hood 416 4.6% 32.7% .143 .308 .221 .260 .364 .275 Ryan Howard 427 7.0% 29.3% .185 .283 .226 .286 .411 .296 Jeff Francoeur 347 4.0% 22.5% .155 .285 .243 .277 .398 .293 Brian Pointer 420 8.8% 37.9% .142 .293 .190 .273 .332 .277 *** Batters, Assorted Other Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp Odubel Herrera 567 4.7 97 7 2.8 Lloyd Moseby J.P. Crawford 541 4.4 96 3 2.6 Marcus Giles Maikel Franco 560 5.5 113 -8 2.3 Aubrey Huff Aaron Altherr 576 4.3 92 8 1.6 Corey Hart Cameron Rupp 315 3.4 75 3 1.0 Gilberto Reyes Andrew Knapp 427 3.7 82 -5 1.0 Eddie Taubensee Brian Bogusevic 453 4.3 90 -4 1.0 Lou Collier Freddy Galvis 478 3.8 78 -1 0.9 Ruben Santana Angelys Nina 462 3.7 78 4 0.8 Kenny Perez Malquin Canelo 472 3.4 75 1 0.8 Jeff Moronko Erik Kratz 212 4.0 88 -1 0.8 Mike Macfarlane Nick Williams 522 3.8 85 -2 0.7 Lloyd Moseby Cesar Hernandez 500 4.3 87 -5 0.7 Manuel Lee Roman Quinn 350 3.7 78 2 0.7 Willie McGee Jorge Alfaro 365 3.6 81 -5 0.6 David Ross Carlos Ruiz 336 3.6 77 -4 0.6 Rick Cerone Emmanuel Burriss 416 3.6 77 -2 0.6 Jose Uribe Peter Bourjos 246 3.6 81 2 0.5 Rich Thompson Andres Blanco 284 4.0 88 -5 0.3 Dave Berg Cody Asche 545 4.7 99 -8 0.2 Jacque Jones Brock Stassi 458 4.2 89 2 0.2 Francisco Melendez Tyler Pastornicky 375 3.6 75 -2 0.1 Al Pedrique Kelly Dugan 397 3.7 81 2 0.1 Rick Sofield Gabriel Lino 340 2.3 51 3 0.0 Doug Lindsey Jordan Danks 438 3.2 70 6 0.0 Matt Padgett Darnell Sweeney 574 3.6 80 -7 0.0 Jed Hansen Domonic Brown 492 4.3 91 -5 -0.1 Frank Jacobs Russ Canzler 465 3.9 86 2 -0.1 Simon Pond Cord Phelps 412 3.3 71 -2 -0.1 Casey Benjamin Aaron Brown 385 3.3 76 -3 -0.1 Shawn Jeter Ryan Jackson 354 3.0 62 -2 -0.2 Douglas Bernier Darin Ruf 400 4.4 95 -5 -0.2 Ron Wright Chris McGuiness 436 3.6 80 2 -0.3 Kevin Burford Carlos Tocci 571 2.7 63 5 -0.3 Luis Montanez Edgar Duran 339 2.7 57 0 -0.3 Roger Burnett Brodie Greene 393 3.0 62 0 -0.3 Justin Gemoll Tommy Joseph 186 3.8 82 -2 -0.4 Steve Hacker Tyler Henson 437 3.3 68 -4 -0.4 Dan DeMent Jayson Nix 247 2.6 54 0 -0.5 Chris Petersen Destin Hood 416 3.3 71 1 -0.6 Brian Gordon Ryan Howard 427 4.1 90 -6 -0.7 Lee Stevens Jeff Francoeur 347 3.8 84 -6 -0.7 Tim Costo Brian Pointer 420 3.0 66 -1 -0.9 Randy Salava *** Pitchers, Counting Stats Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER Aaron Nola R 23 30 30 175.0 153 37 24 176 87 81 Ken Giles R 25 71 0 73.0 96 24 5 56 21 20 Cliff Lee L 37 15 15 101.3 88 23 11 105 48 45 Jeremy Hellickson R 29 26 25 133.7 114 38 18 140 72 67 Jake Thompson R 22 24 24 125.3 105 44 15 130 67 63 Michael Mariot R 27 40 0 59.3 65 19 6 53 25 23 Aaron Harang R 38 25 25 148.0 100 49 18 161 83 78 Jerad Eickhoff R 25 27 27 149.0 131 51 24 152 85 79 Dalier Hinojosa R 30 44 0 68.0 69 30 7 61 31 29 Luis Garcia R 29 61 0 63.0 63 30 5 59 29 27 Dan Otero R 31 58 0 70.7 46 12 6 76 33 31 Reinier Roibal R 27 32 5 60.0 54 16 8 60 31 29 Kenneth Roberts L 28 43 0 58.7 44 14 5 61 28 26 Chris Leroux R 32 19 7 61.3 48 23 8 64 34 32 Jeanmar Gomez R 28 55 0 66.3 47 21 6 69 32 30 Edubray Ramos R 23 39 0 53.7 48 16 6 52 26 24 Matt Harrison L 30 7 7 37.7 24 16 4 41 21 20 Miguel A. Gonzalez R 29 20 9 58.0 45 23 7 60 33 31 Elvis Araujo L 24 49 0 46.7 49 24 4 42 22 21 A.J. Achter R 27 52 0 71.3 72 24 10 67 35 33 James Russell L 30 63 0 48.3 38 15 5 49 24 22 Jonathan Pettibone R 25 13 13 66.0 40 23 7 75 39 36 Jeff Francoeur R 32 4 0 4.3 4 2 1 4 2 2 Ethan Martin R 27 30 2 54.3 43 23 6 55 29 27 Mario Hollands L 27 36 0 34.0 28 14 3 34 17 16 Frank Herrmann R 32 34 0 42.3 38 13 5 43 22 21 Chad Billingsley R 31 7 7 36.0 22 11 6 42 24 22 Dustin McGowan R 34 41 3 57.7 48 31 8 58 33 31 Stephen Shackleford R 27 51 0 57.3 52 30 6 56 31 29 Hector Neris R 27 57 0 75.7 71 30 10 74 40 37 Colton Murray R 26 54 0 75.3 75 35 9 72 40 37 Greg Burke R 33 46 0 56.7 59 22 9 56 31 29 Kevin Correia R 35 19 17 102.3 63 27 15 119 63 59 David Buchanan R 27 27 27 146.0 88 47 18 168 90 84 Jimmy Cordero R 24 39 0 53.0 50 28 7 53 31 29 Seth Rosin R 27 48 0 68.7 52 21 9 74 39 36 Ben Lively R 24 25 25 134.0 110 50 23 144 85 79 Jerome Williams R 34 31 18 119.3 80 33 18 137 75 70 John Richy R 23 23 18 114.7 79 43 18 130 74 69 Zach Eflin R 22 24 24 124.0 71 31 20 146 80 75 Tom Windle L 24 30 18 104.0 70 53 14 116 68 64 Ryan O’Sullivan R 25 41 4 71.0 44 34 9 80 46 43 Jason Berken R 32 24 17 116.7 72 39 20 136 78 73 Adam Morgan L 26 20 20 101.7 60 34 18 118 70 65 Severino Gonzalez R 23 24 24 132.7 87 30 24 157 90 84 Alec Asher R 24 29 29 146.7 113 43 31 168 101 94 Jesse Biddle L 24 21 21 106.7 83 58 20 119 77 72 Joely Rodriguez L 24 30 20 121.3 71 52 19 143 86 80 Anthony Vasquez L 29 23 18 104.0 62 41 20 124 76 71 Nick Pivetta R 23 24 23 116.3 86 58 25 135 87 81 *** Pitchers, Rates and Averages Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP- Aaron Nola 175.0 738 20.7% 5.0% .295 4.17 3.95 107 99 Ken Giles 73.0 299 32.1% 8.0% .295 2.47 2.37 63 59 Cliff Lee 101.3 432 20.4% 5.3% .305 4.00 3.58 102 90 Jeremy Hellickson 133.7 579 19.7% 6.6% .301 4.51 4.11 115 103 Jake Thompson 125.3 550 19.1% 8.0% .304 4.52 4.26 116 107 Michael Mariot 59.3 250 26.0% 7.6% .298 3.49 3.30 89 83 Aaron Harang 148.0 654 15.3% 7.5% .295 4.74 4.39 121 110 Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 650 20.2% 7.8% .293 4.77 4.65 122 116 Dalier Hinojosa 68.0 295 23.4% 10.2% .290 3.84 3.88 98 97 Luis Garcia 63.0 278 22.7% 10.8% .302 3.86 3.48 99 87 Dan Otero 70.7 300 15.3% 4.0% .299 3.95 3.43 101 86 Reinier Roibal 60.0 256 21.1% 6.3% .297 4.35 3.95 111 99 Kenneth Roberts 58.7 251 17.5% 5.6% .303 3.99 3.59 102 90 Chris Leroux 61.3 271 17.7% 8.5% .296 4.70 4.52 120 113 Jeanmar Gomez 66.3 289 16.3% 7.3% .296 4.07 3.74 104 94 Edubray Ramos 53.7 229 21.0% 7.0% .295 4.02 3.78 103 95 Matt Harrison 37.7 170 14.1% 9.4% .296 4.78 4.62 122 116 Miguel A. Gonzalez 58.0 257 17.5% 8.9% .296 4.81 4.47 123 112 Elvis Araujo 46.7 206 23.8% 11.6% .297 4.05 3.72 104 93 A.J. Achter 71.3 305 23.6% 7.9% .291 4.16 4.06 106 102 James Russell 48.3 209 18.2% 7.2% .294 4.10 3.74 105 94 Jonathan Pettibone 66.0 296 13.5% 7.8% .305 4.91 4.42 126 111 Jeff Francoeur 4.3 19 21.2% 10.6% .275 4.15 6.42 106 161 Ethan Martin 54.3 241 17.8% 9.5% .295 4.47 4.40 114 110 Mario Hollands 34.0 150 18.7% 9.3% .298 4.24 3.81 108 95 Frank Herrmann 42.3 183 20.8% 7.1% .304 4.46 3.97 114 99 Chad Billingsley 36.0 161 13.7% 6.8% .298 5.50 5.11 141 128 Dustin McGowan 57.7 262 18.3% 11.8% .289 4.84 4.97 124 124 Stephen Shackleford 57.3 258 20.2% 11.6% .300 4.55 4.38 116 110 Hector Neris 75.7 331 21.4% 9.1% .298 4.40 4.35 112 109 Colton Murray 75.3 333 22.5% 10.5% .300 4.42 4.24 113 106 Greg Burke 56.7 248 23.8% 8.9% .303 4.61 4.41 118 111 Kevin Correia 102.3 453 13.9% 6.0% .302 5.19 4.69 133 118 David Buchanan 146.0 653 13.5% 7.2% .305 5.18 4.65 132 117 Jimmy Cordero 53.0 240 20.8% 11.7% .303 4.92 4.75 126 119 Seth Rosin 68.7 301 17.3% 7.0% .302 4.72 4.36 121 109 Ben Lively 134.0 596 18.5% 8.4% .299 5.31 5.05 136 127 Jerome Williams 119.3 528 15.2% 6.3% .304 5.28 4.69 135 118 John Richy 114.7 517 15.3% 8.3% .303 5.42 5.11 139 128 Zach Eflin 124.0 549 12.9% 5.6% .300 5.44 5.01 139 126 Tom Windle 104.0 481 14.6% 11.0% .302 5.54 5.24 142 131 Ryan O’Sullivan 71.0 327 13.5% 10.4% .301 5.45 5.13 139 129 Jason Berken 116.7 525 13.7% 7.4% .300 5.63 5.31 144 133 Adam Morgan 101.7 457 13.1% 7.4% .294 5.75 5.40 147 135 Severino Gonzalez 132.7 585 14.9% 5.1% .305 5.70 5.06 146 127 Alec Asher 146.7 651 17.4% 6.6% .300 5.77 5.39 148 135 Jesse Biddle 106.7 497 16.7% 11.7% .299 6.07 5.82 155 146 Joely Rodriguez 121.3 559 12.7% 9.3% .303 5.93 5.44 152 136 Anthony Vasquez 104.0 477 13.0% 8.6% .299 6.14 5.80 157 145 Nick Pivetta 116.3 542 15.9% 10.7% .301 6.27 6.18 160 155 *** Pitchers, Assorted Other Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp Aaron Nola 175.0 7.87 1.90 1.23 90 1.8 Bill Wegman Ken Giles 73.0 11.84 2.96 0.62 152 1.6 Gregg Olson Cliff Lee 101.3 7.82 2.04 0.98 94 1.2 Mark Langston Jeremy Hellickson 133.7 7.67 2.56 1.21 83 0.8 Tim Redding Jake Thompson 125.3 7.54 3.16 1.08 83 0.7 Bubba Nelson Michael Mariot 59.3 9.87 2.88 0.91 107 0.5 Felix Rodriguez Aaron Harang 148.0 6.08 2.98 1.09 79 0.4 Bob Welch Jerad Eickhoff 149.0 7.91 3.08 1.45 78 0.3 Tony Menendez Dalier Hinojosa 68.0 9.13 3.97 0.93 97 0.3 Marc Wilkins Luis Garcia 63.0 9.00 4.29 0.71 97 0.2 Roy Corcoran Dan Otero 70.7 5.86 1.53 0.76 95 0.2 Ron Taylor Reinier Roibal 60.0 8.10 2.40 1.20 86 0.2 Lance McCullers Kenneth Roberts 58.7 6.75 2.15 0.77 94 0.1 Will McEnaney Chris Leroux 61.3 7.05 3.38 1.17 80 0.1 Vladimir Nunez Jeanmar Gomez 66.3 6.38 2.85 0.81 92 0.1 Jimmy Myers Edubray Ramos 53.7 8.04 2.68 1.01 93 0.1 Rory Shortell Matt Harrison 37.7 5.73 3.82 0.95 78 0.1 Greg Mathews Miguel A. Gonzalez 58.0 6.98 3.57 1.09 78 0.1 Jamie Brewington Elvis Araujo 46.7 9.44 4.63 0.77 92 0.0 Buzz Oliver A.J. Achter 71.3 9.09 3.03 1.26 90 0.0 Justin Speier James Russell 48.3 7.08 2.80 0.93 91 0.0 Dan Morogiello Jonathan Pettibone 66.0 5.45 3.14 0.95 76 0.0 Daniel Haigwood Jeff Francoeur 4.3 8.37 4.19 2.09 90 0.0 Mike Barlow Ethan Martin 54.3 7.13 3.81 0.99 84 0.0 Mike Zimmerman Mario Hollands 34.0 7.41 3.71 0.79 88 -0.1 Joey Long Frank Herrmann 42.3 8.09 2.77 1.06 84 -0.2 Pete Walker Chad Billingsley 36.0 5.50 2.75 1.50 68 -0.2 John DeSilva Dustin McGowan 57.7 7.49 4.84 1.25 77 -0.3 Johnny Klippstein Stephen Shackleford 57.3 8.17 4.71 0.94 82 -0.3 Edwardo Sierra Hector Neris 75.7 8.44 3.57 1.19 85 -0.3 Todd Fischer Colton Murray 75.3 8.96 4.18 1.08 85 -0.3 Steve Chitren Greg Burke 56.7 9.37 3.49 1.43 81 -0.3 Bob Long Kevin Correia 102.3 5.54 2.38 1.32 72 -0.3 Kevin Jarvis David Buchanan 146.0 5.42 2.90 1.11 72 -0.4 Brad Knox Jimmy Cordero 53.0 8.49 4.75 1.19 76 -0.5 Brad Tweedlie Seth Rosin 68.7 6.81 2.75 1.18 79 -0.5 Neal McDade Ben Lively 134.0 7.39 3.36 1.54 71 -0.6 Jim Blueberg Jerome Williams 119.3 6.04 2.49 1.36 71 -0.7 R.A. Dickey John Richy 114.7 6.20 3.37 1.41 69 -0.8 Patrick Coogan Zach Eflin 124.0 5.15 2.25 1.45 69 -0.8 Matt Vasquez Tom Windle 104.0 6.06 4.59 1.21 68 -0.9 Juan Cedeno Ryan O’Sullivan 71.0 5.58 4.31 1.14 69 -0.9 J.D. Brammer Jason Berken 116.7 5.55 3.01 1.54 66 -1.1 R.A. Dickey Adam Morgan 101.7 5.31 3.01 1.59 65 -1.1 Jason Pierson Severino Gonzalez 132.7 5.90 2.03 1.63 66 -1.4 Dane Johnson Alec Asher 146.7 6.93 2.64 1.90 65 -1.5 Mike Redding Jesse Biddle 106.7 7.00 4.89 1.69 62 -1.6 Tom Singer Joely Rodriguez 121.3 5.27 3.86 1.41 63 -1.7 Jeff Hundley Anthony Vasquez 104.0 5.37 3.55 1.73 61 -1.7 Mike Prochaska Nick Pivetta 116.3 6.66 4.49 1.93 60 -2.1 Bill Malloy *** Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future. Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason. ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.93 ERA and the NL having a 3.75 ERA. Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery. Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.” Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.