2016 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City.

Batters
Toronto’s position players recorded the highest collective WAR in the majors this past year. Based on the numbers produced by ZiPS for 2016, the possibility of repeating that feat would appear to be distinct. Adding the rounded WAR figures in the depth chart below — a practice, it needs to be said, that should be reserved for entertainment purposes only — yields a sum of about 28 wins. That total would have been the third-highest in 2015. An encouraging development, that.

The strengths of the team aren’t surprising. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki have been good in the past and appear capable of continuing that trend. Of some interest is what appears to be the team’s only weakness — namely, second base. Devon Travis exhibited considerable promise as a rookie, but is expected to begin the season on the disabled list. Ryan Goins, meanwhile — despite what appears to be above-average defense — is regarded by Szymborski’s computer as a replacement-level player. Finding even just some value from second would appear to represent an easy means by which the club can improve itself this offseason.

Pitchers
Among the pitchers expected to begin the season in the Jays’ rotation, glorious Marcus Stroman receives the top WAR projection on a per-inning basis. Among that same group, however, Stroman also receives the lowest overall innings projection. This isn’t a surprise, of course: what ZiPS knows is that Stroman recorded just 27 innings in 2015. Missing most of one season generally isn’t a positive indicator for the season which follows it.

Also notable among the starters is the relatively modest projection (1.3 zWAR, 135.2 IP) for the newly signed J.A. Happ. The terms offered by Toronto suggest implicitly that the club believes Happ will retain some of the excellence he exhibited in Pittsburgh. Like most algorithms, the ones which inform ZiPS are skeptical about a pitcher replicating a brief spell of greatness given the burden of a longer spell of mediocrity.

Bench/Prospects
Dalton Pompey just barely exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2015. His offensive projections render him more of a strong bench piece at the moment than emerging star. Anthony Alford, probably the club’s top positional prospect, profiles as something slightly better than replacement-level entering his age-21 season. Infielder Andy Burns isn’t the club’s top positional prospect, but is a minor-leaguer who’s played a lot of second base and receives a better projection than Ryan Goins. Among pitchers, the newly acquired Jesse Chavez isn’t included in the depth-chart image below and also isn’t a prospect. He is forecast more or less to match Happ’s contribution given the opportunity.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Toronto, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Blue Jay Depth

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats
Player B Age PO PA R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS
Josh Donaldson R 30 3B 650 90 159 35 3 32 105 6 1
Jose Bautista R 35 RF 530 78 115 22 1 30 92 5 2
Russell Martin R 33 C 450 50 91 19 1 16 63 5 4
Troy Tulowitzki R 31 SS 466 57 108 22 1 17 61 1 1
Edwin Encarnacion R 33 1B 554 73 129 27 1 29 97 4 1
Kevin Pillar R 27 CF 614 69 156 36 3 12 66 22 7
Devon Travis R 25 2B 430 53 104 23 3 13 53 7 3
Ben Revere L 28 CF 586 74 163 18 6 2 39 33 7
Dioner Navarro B 32 C 306 26 73 12 0 8 38 1 0
Matt Hague R 30 3B 549 56 129 27 1 13 65 3 2
Matt Dominguez R 26 3B 559 56 126 26 1 15 70 0 1
Dalton Pompey B 23 CF 598 64 126 19 6 11 47 27 6
Michael Saunders L 29 LF 277 38 60 14 2 8 42 5 3
Dwight Smith Jr. L 23 LF 543 58 124 25 3 10 51 7 3
Andy Burns R 25 3B 547 53 123 28 2 10 53 12 8
Darwin Barney R 30 2B 425 43 94 18 1 6 41 4 2
Justin Smoak B 29 1B 438 51 92 21 1 17 65 0 1
A.J. Jimenez R 26 C 219 18 49 13 1 2 21 2 1
Humberto Quintero R 36 C 242 19 53 10 1 5 25 1 1
David Adams R 29 2B 419 42 91 15 2 7 42 1 1
Chris Colabello R 32 1B 480 55 112 23 1 19 70 1 1
Anthony Alford R 21 CF 503 52 98 20 5 8 40 16 8
Jonathan Diaz R 31 SS 408 34 76 12 2 2 26 6 4
Munenori Kawasaki L 35 2B 281 25 57 9 2 0 19 4 2
Ryan Goins L 28 2B 517 47 111 22 3 5 48 3 3
Ezequiel Carrera L 29 CF 439 48 102 16 3 6 41 21 7
Richard Urena B 20 SS 479 47 106 17 3 17 56 5 6
Melky Mesa R 29 CF 368 33 72 19 2 10 39 5 2
Alex Hassan R 28 LF 390 40 89 21 1 5 38 1 1
George Kottaras L 33 C 150 17 25 3 0 6 18 0 0
Jorge Flores R 24 SS 410 34 86 17 1 2 27 8 9
Josh Thole L 29 C 234 19 51 8 0 2 17 0 1
Chris Dickerson L 34 CF 243 25 48 10 1 5 22 7 2
Caleb Gindl L 27 RF 413 38 86 19 3 8 39 2 2
Maicer Izturis B 35 2B 124 11 29 4 0 1 9 2 1
Rowdy Tellez L 21 1B 428 44 95 19 0 15 54 4 3
Ramon Santiago B 36 2B 173 14 34 5 0 1 11 1 1
Mitch Nay R 22 3B 525 43 112 24 3 6 45 2 2
Jon Berti R 26 2B 526 48 110 16 3 5 38 24 11
Jiovanni Mier R 25 SS 413 39 77 15 1 5 36 7 4
Danny Dorn L 31 1B 386 40 82 18 2 12 48 2 2
Casey Kotchman L 33 1B 298 28 66 11 0 5 34 1 0
Cole Garner R 31 RF 148 12 26 5 1 3 12 1 1
Roemon Fields L 25 CF 469 38 95 11 3 2 27 28 10
Matt Dean R 23 1B 522 49 109 23 3 15 57 2 1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages
Player PA BB% K% ISO BABIP AVG OBP SLG wOBA
Josh Donaldson 650 9.8% 19.2% .240 .301 .277 .353 .517 .372
Jose Bautista 530 15.3% 16.4% .260 .260 .262 .379 .522 .385
Russell Martin 450 11.1% 21.6% .179 .272 .236 .336 .415 .333
Troy Tulowitzki 466 9.2% 21.5% .181 .302 .261 .335 .442 .333
Edwin Encarnacion 554 12.1% 14.8% .244 .270 .270 .363 .514 .370
Kevin Pillar 614 4.2% 16.1% .135 .307 .271 .306 .406 .318
Devon Travis 430 7.0% 17.2% .174 .297 .267 .325 .441 .336
Ben Revere 586 4.1% 9.6% .066 .325 .295 .326 .361 .314
Dioner Navarro 306 7.2% 15.4% .129 .285 .262 .314 .391 .306
Matt Hague 549 7.1% 17.5% .136 .295 .258 .321 .394 .315
Matt Dominguez 559 4.3% 17.5% .140 .268 .242 .280 .382 .285
Dalton Pompey 598 7.9% 23.1% .118 .292 .233 .299 .351 .298
Michael Saunders 277 10.1% 24.5% .172 .304 .246 .322 .418 .327
Dwight Smith Jr. 543 7.0% 17.9% .122 .289 .248 .303 .370 .300
Andy Burns 547 5.5% 21.4% .122 .294 .243 .288 .365 .295
Darwin Barney 425 5.4% 13.2% .098 .265 .240 .287 .338 .274
Justin Smoak 438 9.6% 23.1% .190 .273 .236 .313 .426 .321
A.J. Jimenez 219 4.6% 19.2% .102 .287 .238 .274 .340 .272
Humberto Quintero 242 2.5% 21.9% .118 .277 .231 .255 .349 .261
David Adams 419 7.2% 18.9% .106 .284 .239 .302 .345 .285
Chris Colabello 480 6.7% 28.1% .186 .321 .254 .308 .440 .323
Anthony Alford 503 9.7% 32.8% .121 .324 .218 .298 .339 .295
Jonathan Diaz 408 8.3% 20.3% .062 .272 .214 .292 .276 .259
Munenori Kawasaki 281 7.8% 17.1% .052 .285 .231 .300 .283 .263
Ryan Goins 517 5.8% 20.9% .091 .292 .235 .280 .326 .265
Ezequiel Carrera 439 5.9% 19.6% .100 .309 .254 .303 .354 .301
Richard Urena 479 2.9% 28.6% .162 .289 .231 .254 .393 .283
Melky Mesa 368 3.0% 38.0% .150 .305 .205 .236 .355 .261
Alex Hassan 390 8.2% 24.1% .108 .327 .252 .315 .360 .298
George Kottaras 150 13.3% 36.7% .164 .279 .195 .302 .359 .289
Jorge Flores 410 6.3% 19.3% .067 .288 .231 .290 .298 .273
Josh Thole 234 7.7% 15.8% .066 .282 .241 .302 .307 .270
Chris Dickerson 243 8.6% 30.9% .123 .307 .219 .292 .342 .288
Caleb Gindl 413 7.0% 23.7% .129 .284 .227 .284 .356 .282
Maicer Izturis 124 6.5% 9.7% .062 .275 .254 .301 .316 .278
Rowdy Tellez 428 6.1% 26.2% .162 .293 .241 .287 .403 .302
Ramon Santiago 173 7.5% 18.5% .053 .273 .222 .290 .275 .254
Mitch Nay 525 5.3% 22.3% .099 .287 .230 .275 .329 .267
Jon Berti 526 5.9% 20.9% .077 .285 .228 .285 .305 .280
Jiovanni Mier 413 7.7% 26.2% .086 .278 .209 .275 .295 .260
Danny Dorn 386 6.5% 25.9% .165 .286 .233 .286 .398 .298
Casey Kotchman 298 6.7% 10.7% .095 .257 .242 .300 .337 .278
Cole Garner 148 4.1% 39.9% .114 .295 .186 .230 .300 .238
Roemon Fields 469 4.9% 26.0% .052 .295 .217 .259 .269 .252
Matt Dean 522 4.6% 34.7% .150 .316 .222 .264 .372 .279

***

Batters, Assorted Other
Player PA RC/27 OPS+ Def zWAR No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson 650 6.9 138 8 6.6 Whitey Kurowski
Jose Bautista 530 7.3 147 -2 4.1 Dwight Evans
Russell Martin 450 4.8 107 4 3.5 Bob Brenly
Troy Tulowitzki 466 5.4 114 4 3.5 Ken McMullen
Edwin Encarnacion 554 6.9 140 -2 3.3 Roy Sievers
Kevin Pillar 614 4.8 96 8 3.2 Dave Gallagher
Devon Travis 430 5.3 110 1 2.5 Gene Freese
Ben Revere 586 4.9 91 -3 1.7 Juan Pierre
Dioner Navarro 306 4.5 95 -2 1.4 Milt May
Matt Hague 549 4.6 97 -8 1.3 Pinky Higgins
Matt Dominguez 559 3.8 82 4 1.2 Blair Barbier
Dalton Pompey 598 4.0 80 -1 1.2 Stan Jefferson
Michael Saunders 277 4.8 104 3 1.1 Ryan Church
Dwight Smith Jr. 543 4.0 86 6 0.9 Andy Barkett
Andy Burns 547 3.7 80 1 0.9 Mark Lewis
Darwin Barney 425 3.5 73 5 0.7 Kevin Baez
Justin Smoak 438 4.7 103 0 0.7 Frank Bolick
A.J. Jimenez 219 3.3 70 2 0.6 David Duff
Humberto Quintero 242 3.1 66 2 0.4 Pat Borders
David Adams 419 3.7 80 -2 0.4 Jose Castro
Chris Colabello 480 4.9 105 -5 0.4 Bill Skowron
Anthony Alford 503 3.5 77 -2 0.4 Tony Walker
Jonathan Diaz 408 2.7 60 3 0.4 Brandon Chaves
Munenori Kawasaki 281 3.0 64 4 0.3 Dan Rohn
Ryan Goins 517 3.2 68 4 0.3 Johnnie LeMaster
Ezequiel Carrera 439 4.1 82 -6 0.3 John Moses
Richard Urena 479 3.3 76 -4 0.2 Ty Nichols
Melky Mesa 368 2.9 62 5 0.2 Justin Sherrod
Alex Hassan 390 4.1 87 -1 0.1 Russ Morman
George Kottaras 150 3.6 83 -4 0.1 Wes Westrum
Jorge Flores 410 2.8 64 1 0.1 Oswaldo Navarro
Josh Thole 234 3.2 70 -4 0.0 Matt Tupman
Chris Dickerson 243 3.6 76 -3 0.0 Dann Howitt
Caleb Gindl 413 3.5 77 2 -0.1 Matt Bowser
Maicer Izturis 124 3.4 72 -3 -0.2 Edgar Caceres
Rowdy Tellez 428 4.1 89 -1 -0.2 Mark Hamilton
Ramon Santiago 173 2.7 58 0 -0.2 Gene Michael
Mitch Nay 525 3.1 67 -1 -0.3 Travis Hanson
Jon Berti 526 3.1 64 -2 -0.3 Carson Carroll
Jiovanni Mier 413 2.8 59 -3 -0.4 Josh McKinley
Danny Dorn 386 3.9 87 -2 -0.4 John-Ford Griffin
Casey Kotchman 298 3.6 77 -1 -0.6 Glenn Adams
Cole Garner 148 2.2 46 0 -0.7 Alan Cockrell
Roemon Fields 469 2.6 47 4 -0.7 Derwin McNealy
Matt Dean 522 3.4 74 -2 -1.3 Nate Rolison

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats
Player T Age G GS IP K BB HR H R ER
Marco Estrada R 32 27 27 157.3 123 46 25 143 76 71
Marcus Stroman R 25 18 18 104.3 89 24 11 101 47 44
Mark Buehrle L 37 27 27 168.0 93 36 19 185 87 81
R.A. Dickey R 41 28 28 175.3 116 58 24 173 92 86
Jesse Chavez R 32 23 23 137.3 122 40 18 139 71 66
J.A. Happ L 33 26 25 135.7 114 43 18 137 71 66
Aaron Sanchez R 23 55 14 108.0 80 53 10 99 50 47
Jeff Francis L 35 26 12 86.7 76 21 10 87 42 39
Roberto Osuna R 21 61 0 63.3 72 20 7 52 24 22
Brett Cecil L 29 62 0 54.7 70 19 5 43 19 18
Drew Hutchison R 25 27 26 142.0 127 43 20 148 79 74
Aaron Loup L 28 67 0 60.3 53 18 6 57 27 25
Ben Rowen R 27 49 0 59.3 39 15 5 61 28 26
Mark Lowe R 33 51 0 51.3 53 18 7 48 25 23
LaTroy Hawkins R 43 44 0 41.3 32 10 4 42 19 18
Steve Delabar R 32 53 0 52.0 59 26 7 46 26 24
Ryan Tepera R 28 52 0 63.3 58 21 8 60 31 29
Bo Schultz R 30 47 0 59.3 49 21 8 56 30 28
Pat Venditte S 31 27 1 44.3 40 16 7 44 25 23
Chad Jenkins R 28 37 9 82.7 47 22 13 94 49 46
Blake McFarland R 28 44 0 53.7 55 20 8 52 29 27
Colt Hynes L 31 51 0 53.7 44 16 7 56 29 27
Cory Burns R 28 40 0 58.0 44 22 8 62 33 31
Bobby Korecky R 36 39 0 49.7 35 16 7 54 29 27
Conner Greene R 21 26 26 122.7 91 51 20 138 79 74
Donn Roach R 26 28 21 124.0 53 41 15 148 79 74
Casey Lawrence R 28 23 22 134.0 69 34 19 161 86 80
Brady Dragmire R 23 43 0 69.3 43 22 8 77 40 37
Greg Infante R 28 44 0 48.0 41 32 6 48 30 28
Scott Barnes L 28 30 3 47.0 39 20 10 52 32 30
John Anderson L 27 27 12 82.3 56 42 13 93 56 52
Scott Copeland R 28 26 22 131.0 70 51 20 153 87 81
Austin Bibens-Dirkx R 31 27 19 112.0 83 36 23 127 76 71
Andrew Albers L 30 24 21 116.3 71 34 22 138 80 75
Scott Diamond L 29 26 24 136.3 67 31 27 166 94 88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages
Player IP TBF K% BB% BABIP ERA FIP ERA- FIP-
Marco Estrada 157.3 661 18.6% 7.0% .255 4.06 4.54 99 112
Marcus Stroman 104.3 438 20.3% 5.5% .289 3.80 3.55 93 87
Mark Buehrle 168.0 725 12.8% 5.0% .291 4.34 4.18 106 103
R.A. Dickey 175.3 757 15.3% 7.7% .272 4.41 4.73 108 117
Jesse Chavez 137.3 591 20.6% 6.8% .297 4.33 3.93 106 97
J.A. Happ 135.7 587 19.4% 7.3% .290 4.38 4.10 107 101
Aaron Sanchez 108.0 476 16.8% 11.1% .270 3.92 4.33 96 107
Jeff Francis 86.7 368 20.6% 5.7% .298 4.05 3.65 99 90
Roberto Osuna 63.3 262 27.5% 7.6% .278 3.13 3.22 76 79
Brett Cecil 54.7 226 31.0% 8.4% .292 2.96 2.72 72 67
Drew Hutchison 142.0 617 20.6% 7.0% .305 4.69 4.23 115 104
Aaron Loup 60.3 256 20.7% 7.0% .295 3.73 3.74 91 92
Ben Rowen 59.3 254 15.4% 5.9% .292 3.94 3.65 96 90
Mark Lowe 51.3 220 24.1% 8.2% .293 4.03 3.87 98 95
LaTroy Hawkins 41.3 176 18.2% 5.7% .295 3.92 3.54 96 87
Steve Delabar 52.0 228 25.9% 11.4% .291 4.15 4.09 101 101
Ryan Tepera 63.3 271 21.4% 7.8% .289 4.12 4.01 101 99
Bo Schultz 59.3 255 19.2% 8.2% .274 4.25 4.32 104 107
Pat Venditte 44.3 193 20.7% 8.3% .289 4.67 4.57 114 113
Chad Jenkins 82.7 364 12.9% 6.0% .291 5.01 4.92 122 121
Blake McFarland 53.7 233 23.6% 8.6% .299 4.53 4.22 111 104
Colt Hynes 53.7 233 18.9% 6.9% .300 4.53 4.11 111 101
Cory Burns 58.0 258 17.1% 8.5% .298 4.81 4.52 117 111
Bobby Korecky 49.7 219 16.0% 7.3% .295 4.89 4.55 119 112
Conner Greene 122.7 557 16.3% 9.2% .304 5.43 5.16 133 127
Donn Roach 124.0 561 9.4% 7.3% .300 5.37 4.98 131 123
Casey Lawrence 134.0 597 11.6% 5.7% .303 5.37 4.84 131 119
Brady Dragmire 69.3 307 14.0% 7.2% .300 4.80 4.49 117 111
Greg Infante 48.0 224 18.3% 14.3% .296 5.25 5.21 128 129
Scott Barnes 47.0 213 18.3% 9.4% .298 5.74 5.68 140 140
John Anderson 82.3 382 14.7% 11.0% .301 5.68 5.51 139 136
Scott Copeland 131.0 597 11.7% 8.5% .296 5.56 5.35 136 132
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 112.0 499 16.6% 7.2% .297 5.71 5.44 139 134
Andrew Albers 116.3 521 13.6% 6.5% .299 5.80 5.38 142 133
Scott Diamond 136.3 606 11.1% 5.1% .293 5.81 5.49 142 135

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other
Player IP K/9 BB/9 HR/9 ERA+ zWAR No. 1 Comp
Marco Estrada 157.3 7.04 2.63 1.43 99 2.0 Ken Schrom
Marcus Stroman 104.3 7.68 2.07 0.95 106 1.8 Carl Pavano
Mark Buehrle 168.0 4.98 1.93 1.02 93 1.6 Curt Simmons
R.A. Dickey 175.3 5.96 2.98 1.23 91 1.6 Orel Hershiser
Jesse Chavez 137.3 8.00 2.62 1.18 93 1.4 Mike Oquist
J.A. Happ 135.7 7.56 2.85 1.19 92 1.3 Buzz Oliver
Aaron Sanchez 108.0 6.67 4.42 0.83 103 1.2 Ed Whitson
Jeff Francis 86.7 7.89 2.18 1.04 99 0.9 Mark Hendrickson
Roberto Osuna 63.3 10.24 2.84 1.00 129 0.9 Jesse Crain
Brett Cecil 54.7 11.52 3.13 0.82 136 0.9 B.J. Ryan
Drew Hutchison 142.0 8.05 2.73 1.27 86 0.7 Andy Ashby
Aaron Loup 60.3 7.91 2.69 0.90 108 0.4 Mike Munoz
Ben Rowen 59.3 5.92 2.28 0.76 102 0.2 Casey Cox
Mark Lowe 51.3 9.30 3.16 1.23 100 0.2 Ricky Bottalico
LaTroy Hawkins 41.3 6.97 2.18 0.87 103 0.1 Jim Turner
Steve Delabar 52.0 10.21 4.50 1.21 97 0.1 Reggie Harris
Ryan Tepera 63.3 8.25 2.99 1.14 98 0.1 Jim Dougherty
Bo Schultz 59.3 7.44 3.19 1.21 95 0.0 Kevin Gryboski
Pat Venditte 44.3 8.13 3.25 1.42 86 -0.1 Pete Walker
Chad Jenkins 82.7 5.11 2.39 1.41 80 -0.2 Dwayne Pollok
Blake McFarland 53.7 9.22 3.35 1.34 89 -0.2 Andy Croghan
Colt Hynes 53.7 7.37 2.68 1.17 89 -0.2 Jason Kershner
Cory Burns 58.0 6.83 3.41 1.24 84 -0.4 Rick Greene
Bobby Korecky 49.7 6.34 2.90 1.27 82 -0.5 Terry Clark
Conner Greene 122.7 6.67 3.74 1.47 74 -0.5 Steve Stemle
Donn Roach 124.0 3.85 2.98 1.09 75 -0.5 Jake Joseph
Casey Lawrence 134.0 4.63 2.28 1.28 75 -0.5 Clay Condrey
Brady Dragmire 69.3 5.58 2.86 1.04 84 -0.5 Chuck Crumpton
Greg Infante 48.0 7.69 6.00 1.13 77 -0.7 Bart Evans
Scott Barnes 47.0 7.47 3.83 1.91 70 -0.7 Scott Watkins
John Anderson 82.3 6.12 4.59 1.42 71 -0.8 Matt White
Scott Copeland 131.0 4.81 3.50 1.37 72 -0.8 Ryan Glynn
Austin Bibens-Dirkx 112.0 6.67 2.89 1.85 71 -1.0 Nerio Rodriguez
Andrew Albers 116.3 5.49 2.63 1.70 69 -1.1 Dave Gassner
Scott Diamond 136.3 4.42 2.05 1.78 69 -1.2 Scott Downs

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.

We hoped you liked reading 2016 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays by Carson Cistulli!

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Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

newest oldest most voted
outlier
Guest
outlier

why isn’t travis at 2b on the depth chart?

stoeten
Guest

Presumably because he’s hurt — had shoulder surgery and will miss all of Spring Training and some of the start of the year, most likely.

Damaso
Member
Damaso

pencilling him in for only 175pa when he’s expected back within the first month or two of the year and projects as easily the best 2B option seems a little pessimistic though.

PillsburyFlowboy
Member
PillsburyFlowboy

Dan doesn’t input the playing time projections himself. ZiPS does it automatically based on previous playing time information. If he’s projected to register 175 PAs, that’s only because he got so few last year. Same thing goes for Stroman.

Senor_Met
Member
Senor_Met

It’s all statistical, there’s no pessimism or optimism involved