2016 ZiPS Projections – Toronto Blue Jays

After having typically appeared in the very hallowed pages of Baseball Think Factory, Dan Szymborski’s ZiPS projections have been released at FanGraphs the past couple years. The exercise continues this offseason. Below are the projections for the Toronto Blue Jays. Szymborski can be found at ESPN and on Twitter at @DSzymborski.

Other Projections: Atlanta / Kansas City.

Batters
Toronto’s position players recorded the highest collective WAR in the majors this past year. Based on the numbers produced by ZiPS for 2016, the possibility of repeating that feat would appear to be distinct. Adding the rounded WAR figures in the depth chart below — a practice, it needs to be said, that should be reserved for entertainment purposes only — yields a sum of about 28 wins. That total would have been the third-highest in 2015. An encouraging development, that.

The strengths of the team aren’t surprising. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, and Troy Tulowitzki have been good in the past and appear capable of continuing that trend. Of some interest is what appears to be the team’s only weakness — namely, second base. Devon Travis exhibited considerable promise as a rookie, but is expected to begin the season on the disabled list. Ryan Goins, meanwhile — despite what appears to be above-average defense — is regarded by Szymborski’s computer as a replacement-level player. Finding even just some value from second would appear to represent an easy means by which the club can improve itself this offseason.

Pitchers
Among the pitchers expected to begin the season in the Jays’ rotation, glorious Marcus Stroman receives the top WAR projection on a per-inning basis. Among that same group, however, Stroman also receives the lowest overall innings projection. This isn’t a surprise, of course: what ZiPS knows is that Stroman recorded just 27 innings in 2015. Missing most of one season generally isn’t a positive indicator for the season which follows it.

Also notable among the starters is the relatively modest projection (1.3 zWAR, 135.2 IP) for the newly signed J.A. Happ. The terms offered by Toronto suggest implicitly that the club believes Happ will retain some of the excellence he exhibited in Pittsburgh. Like most algorithms, the ones which inform ZiPS are skeptical about a pitcher replicating a brief spell of greatness given the burden of a longer spell of mediocrity.

Bench/Prospects
Dalton Pompey just barely exhausted his rookie eligibility in 2015. His offensive projections render him more of a strong bench piece at the moment than emerging star. Anthony Alford, probably the club’s top positional prospect, profiles as something slightly better than replacement-level entering his age-21 season. Infielder Andy Burns isn’t the club’s top positional prospect, but is a minor-leaguer who’s played a lot of second base and receives a better projection than Ryan Goins. Among pitchers, the newly acquired Jesse Chavez isn’t included in the depth-chart image below and also isn’t a prospect. He is forecast more or less to match Happ’s contribution given the opportunity.

Depth Chart
Below is a rough depth chart for the present incarnation of Toronto, with rounded projected WAR totals for each player. For caveats regarding WAR values see disclaimer at bottom of post. Click to embiggen image.

Ballpark graphic courtesy Eephus League. Depth charts constructed by way of those listed here at site and author’s own haphazard reasoning.

Batters, Counting Stats

Player	B	Age	PO	PA	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS
Josh Donaldson	R	30	3B	650	90	159	35	3	32	105	6	1
Jose Bautista	R	35	RF	530	78	115	22	1	30	92	5	2
Russell Martin	R	33	C	450	50	91	19	1	16	63	5	4
Troy Tulowitzki	R	31	SS	466	57	108	22	1	17	61	1	1
Edwin Encarnacion	R	33	1B	554	73	129	27	1	29	97	4	1
Kevin Pillar	R	27	CF	614	69	156	36	3	12	66	22	7
Devon Travis	R	25	2B	430	53	104	23	3	13	53	7	3
Ben Revere	L	28	CF	586	74	163	18	6	2	39	33	7
Dioner Navarro	B	32	C	306	26	73	12	0	8	38	1	0
Matt Hague	R	30	3B	549	56	129	27	1	13	65	3	2
Matt Dominguez	R	26	3B	559	56	126	26	1	15	70	0	1
Dalton Pompey	B	23	CF	598	64	126	19	6	11	47	27	6
Michael Saunders	L	29	LF	277	38	60	14	2	8	42	5	3
Dwight Smith Jr.	L	23	LF	543	58	124	25	3	10	51	7	3
Andy Burns	R	25	3B	547	53	123	28	2	10	53	12	8
Darwin Barney	R	30	2B	425	43	94	18	1	6	41	4	2
Justin Smoak	B	29	1B	438	51	92	21	1	17	65	0	1
A.J. Jimenez	R	26	C	219	18	49	13	1	2	21	2	1
Humberto Quintero	R	36	C	242	19	53	10	1	5	25	1	1
David Adams	R	29	2B	419	42	91	15	2	7	42	1	1
Chris Colabello	R	32	1B	480	55	112	23	1	19	70	1	1
Anthony Alford	R	21	CF	503	52	98	20	5	8	40	16	8
Jonathan Diaz	R	31	SS	408	34	76	12	2	2	26	6	4
Munenori Kawasaki	L	35	2B	281	25	57	9	2	0	19	4	2
Ryan Goins	L	28	2B	517	47	111	22	3	5	48	3	3
Ezequiel Carrera	L	29	CF	439	48	102	16	3	6	41	21	7
Richard Urena	B	20	SS	479	47	106	17	3	17	56	5	6
Melky Mesa	R	29	CF	368	33	72	19	2	10	39	5	2
Alex Hassan	R	28	LF	390	40	89	21	1	5	38	1	1
George Kottaras	L	33	C	150	17	25	3	0	6	18	0	0
Jorge Flores	R	24	SS	410	34	86	17	1	2	27	8	9
Josh Thole	L	29	C	234	19	51	8	0	2	17	0	1
Chris Dickerson	L	34	CF	243	25	48	10	1	5	22	7	2
Caleb Gindl	L	27	RF	413	38	86	19	3	8	39	2	2
Maicer Izturis	B	35	2B	124	11	29	4	0	1	9	2	1
Rowdy Tellez	L	21	1B	428	44	95	19	0	15	54	4	3
Ramon Santiago	B	36	2B	173	14	34	5	0	1	11	1	1
Mitch Nay	R	22	3B	525	43	112	24	3	6	45	2	2
Jon Berti	R	26	2B	526	48	110	16	3	5	38	24	11
Jiovanni Mier	R	25	SS	413	39	77	15	1	5	36	7	4
Danny Dorn	L	31	1B	386	40	82	18	2	12	48	2	2
Casey Kotchman	L	33	1B	298	28	66	11	0	5	34	1	0
Cole Garner	R	31	RF	148	12	26	5	1	3	12	1	1
Roemon Fields	L	25	CF	469	38	95	11	3	2	27	28	10
Matt Dean	R	23	1B	522	49	109	23	3	15	57	2	1

***

Batters, Rates and Averages

Player	PA	BB%	K%	ISO	BABIP	AVG	OBP	SLG	wOBA
Josh Donaldson	650	9.8%	19.2%	.240	.301	.277	.353	.517	.372
Jose Bautista	530	15.3%	16.4%	.260	.260	.262	.379	.522	.385
Russell Martin	450	11.1%	21.6%	.179	.272	.236	.336	.415	.333
Troy Tulowitzki	466	9.2%	21.5%	.181	.302	.261	.335	.442	.333
Edwin Encarnacion	554	12.1%	14.8%	.244	.270	.270	.363	.514	.370
Kevin Pillar	614	4.2%	16.1%	.135	.307	.271	.306	.406	.318
Devon Travis	430	7.0%	17.2%	.174	.297	.267	.325	.441	.336
Ben Revere	586	4.1%	9.6%	.066	.325	.295	.326	.361	.314
Dioner Navarro	306	7.2%	15.4%	.129	.285	.262	.314	.391	.306
Matt Hague	549	7.1%	17.5%	.136	.295	.258	.321	.394	.315
Matt Dominguez	559	4.3%	17.5%	.140	.268	.242	.280	.382	.285
Dalton Pompey	598	7.9%	23.1%	.118	.292	.233	.299	.351	.298
Michael Saunders	277	10.1%	24.5%	.172	.304	.246	.322	.418	.327
Dwight Smith Jr.	543	7.0%	17.9%	.122	.289	.248	.303	.370	.300
Andy Burns	547	5.5%	21.4%	.122	.294	.243	.288	.365	.295
Darwin Barney	425	5.4%	13.2%	.098	.265	.240	.287	.338	.274
Justin Smoak	438	9.6%	23.1%	.190	.273	.236	.313	.426	.321
A.J. Jimenez	219	4.6%	19.2%	.102	.287	.238	.274	.340	.272
Humberto Quintero	242	2.5%	21.9%	.118	.277	.231	.255	.349	.261
David Adams	419	7.2%	18.9%	.106	.284	.239	.302	.345	.285
Chris Colabello	480	6.7%	28.1%	.186	.321	.254	.308	.440	.323
Anthony Alford	503	9.7%	32.8%	.121	.324	.218	.298	.339	.295
Jonathan Diaz	408	8.3%	20.3%	.062	.272	.214	.292	.276	.259
Munenori Kawasaki	281	7.8%	17.1%	.052	.285	.231	.300	.283	.263
Ryan Goins	517	5.8%	20.9%	.091	.292	.235	.280	.326	.265
Ezequiel Carrera	439	5.9%	19.6%	.100	.309	.254	.303	.354	.301
Richard Urena	479	2.9%	28.6%	.162	.289	.231	.254	.393	.283
Melky Mesa	368	3.0%	38.0%	.150	.305	.205	.236	.355	.261
Alex Hassan	390	8.2%	24.1%	.108	.327	.252	.315	.360	.298
George Kottaras	150	13.3%	36.7%	.164	.279	.195	.302	.359	.289
Jorge Flores	410	6.3%	19.3%	.067	.288	.231	.290	.298	.273
Josh Thole	234	7.7%	15.8%	.066	.282	.241	.302	.307	.270
Chris Dickerson	243	8.6%	30.9%	.123	.307	.219	.292	.342	.288
Caleb Gindl	413	7.0%	23.7%	.129	.284	.227	.284	.356	.282
Maicer Izturis	124	6.5%	9.7%	.062	.275	.254	.301	.316	.278
Rowdy Tellez	428	6.1%	26.2%	.162	.293	.241	.287	.403	.302
Ramon Santiago	173	7.5%	18.5%	.053	.273	.222	.290	.275	.254
Mitch Nay	525	5.3%	22.3%	.099	.287	.230	.275	.329	.267
Jon Berti	526	5.9%	20.9%	.077	.285	.228	.285	.305	.280
Jiovanni Mier	413	7.7%	26.2%	.086	.278	.209	.275	.295	.260
Danny Dorn	386	6.5%	25.9%	.165	.286	.233	.286	.398	.298
Casey Kotchman	298	6.7%	10.7%	.095	.257	.242	.300	.337	.278
Cole Garner	148	4.1%	39.9%	.114	.295	.186	.230	.300	.238
Roemon Fields	469	4.9%	26.0%	.052	.295	.217	.259	.269	.252
Matt Dean	522	4.6%	34.7%	.150	.316	.222	.264	.372	.279

***

Batters, Assorted Other

Player	PA	RC/27	OPS+	Def	zWAR	No.1 Comp
Josh Donaldson	650	6.9	138	8	6.6	Whitey Kurowski
Jose Bautista	530	7.3	147	-2	4.1	Dwight Evans
Russell Martin	450	4.8	107	4	3.5	Bob Brenly
Troy Tulowitzki	466	5.4	114	4	3.5	Ken McMullen
Edwin Encarnacion	554	6.9	140	-2	3.3	Roy Sievers
Kevin Pillar	614	4.8	96	8	3.2	Dave Gallagher
Devon Travis	430	5.3	110	1	2.5	Gene Freese
Ben Revere	586	4.9	91	-3	1.7	Juan Pierre
Dioner Navarro	306	4.5	95	-2	1.4	Milt May
Matt Hague	549	4.6	97	-8	1.3	Pinky Higgins
Matt Dominguez	559	3.8	82	4	1.2	Blair Barbier
Dalton Pompey	598	4.0	80	-1	1.2	Stan Jefferson
Michael Saunders	277	4.8	104	3	1.1	Ryan Church
Dwight Smith Jr.	543	4.0	86	6	0.9	Andy Barkett
Andy Burns	547	3.7	80	1	0.9	Mark Lewis
Darwin Barney	425	3.5	73	5	0.7	Kevin Baez
Justin Smoak	438	4.7	103	0	0.7	Frank Bolick
A.J. Jimenez	219	3.3	70	2	0.6	David Duff
Humberto Quintero	242	3.1	66	2	0.4	Pat Borders
David Adams	419	3.7	80	-2	0.4	Jose Castro
Chris Colabello	480	4.9	105	-5	0.4	Bill Skowron
Anthony Alford	503	3.5	77	-2	0.4	Tony Walker
Jonathan Diaz	408	2.7	60	3	0.4	Brandon Chaves
Munenori Kawasaki	281	3.0	64	4	0.3	Dan Rohn
Ryan Goins	517	3.2	68	4	0.3	Johnnie LeMaster
Ezequiel Carrera	439	4.1	82	-6	0.3	John Moses
Richard Urena	479	3.3	76	-4	0.2	Ty Nichols
Melky Mesa	368	2.9	62	5	0.2	Justin Sherrod
Alex Hassan	390	4.1	87	-1	0.1	Russ Morman
George Kottaras	150	3.6	83	-4	0.1	Wes Westrum
Jorge Flores	410	2.8	64	1	0.1	Oswaldo Navarro
Josh Thole	234	3.2	70	-4	0.0	Matt Tupman
Chris Dickerson	243	3.6	76	-3	0.0	Dann Howitt
Caleb Gindl	413	3.5	77	2	-0.1	Matt Bowser
Maicer Izturis	124	3.4	72	-3	-0.2	Edgar Caceres
Rowdy Tellez	428	4.1	89	-1	-0.2	Mark Hamilton
Ramon Santiago	173	2.7	58	0	-0.2	Gene Michael
Mitch Nay	525	3.1	67	-1	-0.3	Travis Hanson
Jon Berti	526	3.1	64	-2	-0.3	Carson Carroll
Jiovanni Mier	413	2.8	59	-3	-0.4	Josh McKinley
Danny Dorn	386	3.9	87	-2	-0.4	John-Ford Griffin
Casey Kotchman	298	3.6	77	-1	-0.6	Glenn Adams
Cole Garner	148	2.2	46	0	-0.7	Alan Cockrell
Roemon Fields	469	2.6	47	4	-0.7	Derwin McNealy
Matt Dean	522	3.4	74	-2	-1.3	Nate Rolison

***

Pitchers, Counting Stats

Player	T	Age	G	GS	IP	K	BB	HR	H	R	ER
Marco Estrada	R	32	27	27	157.3	123	46	25	143	76	71
Marcus Stroman	R	25	18	18	104.3	89	24	11	101	47	44
Mark Buehrle	L	37	27	27	168.0	93	36	19	185	87	81
R.A. Dickey	R	41	28	28	175.3	116	58	24	173	92	86
Jesse Chavez	R	32	23	23	137.3	122	40	18	139	71	66
J.A. Happ	L	33	26	25	135.7	114	43	18	137	71	66
Aaron Sanchez	R	23	55	14	108.0	80	53	10	99	50	47
Jeff Francis	L	35	26	12	86.7	76	21	10	87	42	39
Roberto Osuna	R	21	61	0	63.3	72	20	7	52	24	22
Brett Cecil	L	29	62	0	54.7	70	19	5	43	19	18
Drew Hutchison	R	25	27	26	142.0	127	43	20	148	79	74
Aaron Loup	L	28	67	0	60.3	53	18	6	57	27	25
Ben Rowen	R	27	49	0	59.3	39	15	5	61	28	26
Mark Lowe	R	33	51	0	51.3	53	18	7	48	25	23
LaTroy Hawkins	R	43	44	0	41.3	32	10	4	42	19	18
Steve Delabar	R	32	53	0	52.0	59	26	7	46	26	24
Ryan Tepera	R	28	52	0	63.3	58	21	8	60	31	29
Bo Schultz	R	30	47	0	59.3	49	21	8	56	30	28
Pat Venditte	S	31	27	1	44.3	40	16	7	44	25	23
Chad Jenkins	R	28	37	9	82.7	47	22	13	94	49	46
Blake McFarland	R	28	44	0	53.7	55	20	8	52	29	27
Colt Hynes	L	31	51	0	53.7	44	16	7	56	29	27
Cory Burns	R	28	40	0	58.0	44	22	8	62	33	31
Bobby Korecky	R	36	39	0	49.7	35	16	7	54	29	27
Conner Greene	R	21	26	26	122.7	91	51	20	138	79	74
Donn Roach	R	26	28	21	124.0	53	41	15	148	79	74
Casey Lawrence	R	28	23	22	134.0	69	34	19	161	86	80
Brady Dragmire	R	23	43	0	69.3	43	22	8	77	40	37
Greg Infante	R	28	44	0	48.0	41	32	6	48	30	28
Scott Barnes	L	28	30	3	47.0	39	20	10	52	32	30
John Anderson	L	27	27	12	82.3	56	42	13	93	56	52
Scott Copeland	R	28	26	22	131.0	70	51	20	153	87	81
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	R	31	27	19	112.0	83	36	23	127	76	71
Andrew Albers	L	30	24	21	116.3	71	34	22	138	80	75
Scott Diamond	L	29	26	24	136.3	67	31	27	166	94	88

***

Pitchers, Rates and Averages

Player	IP	TBF	K%	BB%	BABIP	ERA	FIP	ERA-	FIP-
Marco Estrada	157.3	661	18.6%	7.0%	.255	4.06	4.54	99	112
Marcus Stroman	104.3	438	20.3%	5.5%	.289	3.80	3.55	93	87
Mark Buehrle	168.0	725	12.8%	5.0%	.291	4.34	4.18	106	103
R.A. Dickey	175.3	757	15.3%	7.7%	.272	4.41	4.73	108	117
Jesse Chavez	137.3	591	20.6%	6.8%	.297	4.33	3.93	106	97
J.A. Happ	135.7	587	19.4%	7.3%	.290	4.38	4.10	107	101
Aaron Sanchez	108.0	476	16.8%	11.1%	.270	3.92	4.33	96	107
Jeff Francis	86.7	368	20.6%	5.7%	.298	4.05	3.65	99	90
Roberto Osuna	63.3	262	27.5%	7.6%	.278	3.13	3.22	76	79
Brett Cecil	54.7	226	31.0%	8.4%	.292	2.96	2.72	72	67
Drew Hutchison	142.0	617	20.6%	7.0%	.305	4.69	4.23	115	104
Aaron Loup	60.3	256	20.7%	7.0%	.295	3.73	3.74	91	92
Ben Rowen	59.3	254	15.4%	5.9%	.292	3.94	3.65	96	90
Mark Lowe	51.3	220	24.1%	8.2%	.293	4.03	3.87	98	95
LaTroy Hawkins	41.3	176	18.2%	5.7%	.295	3.92	3.54	96	87
Steve Delabar	52.0	228	25.9%	11.4%	.291	4.15	4.09	101	101
Ryan Tepera	63.3	271	21.4%	7.8%	.289	4.12	4.01	101	99
Bo Schultz	59.3	255	19.2%	8.2%	.274	4.25	4.32	104	107
Pat Venditte	44.3	193	20.7%	8.3%	.289	4.67	4.57	114	113
Chad Jenkins	82.7	364	12.9%	6.0%	.291	5.01	4.92	122	121
Blake McFarland	53.7	233	23.6%	8.6%	.299	4.53	4.22	111	104
Colt Hynes	53.7	233	18.9%	6.9%	.300	4.53	4.11	111	101
Cory Burns	58.0	258	17.1%	8.5%	.298	4.81	4.52	117	111
Bobby Korecky	49.7	219	16.0%	7.3%	.295	4.89	4.55	119	112
Conner Greene	122.7	557	16.3%	9.2%	.304	5.43	5.16	133	127
Donn Roach	124.0	561	9.4%	7.3%	.300	5.37	4.98	131	123
Casey Lawrence	134.0	597	11.6%	5.7%	.303	5.37	4.84	131	119
Brady Dragmire	69.3	307	14.0%	7.2%	.300	4.80	4.49	117	111
Greg Infante	48.0	224	18.3%	14.3%	.296	5.25	5.21	128	129
Scott Barnes	47.0	213	18.3%	9.4%	.298	5.74	5.68	140	140
John Anderson	82.3	382	14.7%	11.0%	.301	5.68	5.51	139	136
Scott Copeland	131.0	597	11.7%	8.5%	.296	5.56	5.35	136	132
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	112.0	499	16.6%	7.2%	.297	5.71	5.44	139	134
Andrew Albers	116.3	521	13.6%	6.5%	.299	5.80	5.38	142	133
Scott Diamond	136.3	606	11.1%	5.1%	.293	5.81	5.49	142	135

***

Pitchers, Assorted Other

Player	IP	K/9	BB/9	HR/9	ERA+	zWAR	No. 1 Comp
Marco Estrada	157.3	7.04	2.63	1.43	99	2.0	Ken Schrom
Marcus Stroman	104.3	7.68	2.07	0.95	106	1.8	Carl Pavano
Mark Buehrle	168.0	4.98	1.93	1.02	93	1.6	Curt Simmons
R.A. Dickey	175.3	5.96	2.98	1.23	91	1.6	Orel Hershiser
Jesse Chavez	137.3	8.00	2.62	1.18	93	1.4	Mike Oquist
J.A. Happ	135.7	7.56	2.85	1.19	92	1.3	Buzz Oliver
Aaron Sanchez	108.0	6.67	4.42	0.83	103	1.2	Ed Whitson
Jeff Francis	86.7	7.89	2.18	1.04	99	0.9	Mark Hendrickson
Roberto Osuna	63.3	10.24	2.84	1.00	129	0.9	Jesse Crain
Brett Cecil	54.7	11.52	3.13	0.82	136	0.9	B.J. Ryan
Drew Hutchison	142.0	8.05	2.73	1.27	86	0.7	Andy Ashby
Aaron Loup	60.3	7.91	2.69	0.90	108	0.4	Mike Munoz
Ben Rowen	59.3	5.92	2.28	0.76	102	0.2	Casey Cox
Mark Lowe	51.3	9.30	3.16	1.23	100	0.2	Ricky Bottalico
LaTroy Hawkins	41.3	6.97	2.18	0.87	103	0.1	Jim Turner
Steve Delabar	52.0	10.21	4.50	1.21	97	0.1	Reggie Harris
Ryan Tepera	63.3	8.25	2.99	1.14	98	0.1	Jim Dougherty
Bo Schultz	59.3	7.44	3.19	1.21	95	0.0	Kevin Gryboski
Pat Venditte	44.3	8.13	3.25	1.42	86	-0.1	Pete Walker
Chad Jenkins	82.7	5.11	2.39	1.41	80	-0.2	Dwayne Pollok
Blake McFarland	53.7	9.22	3.35	1.34	89	-0.2	Andy Croghan
Colt Hynes	53.7	7.37	2.68	1.17	89	-0.2	Jason Kershner
Cory Burns	58.0	6.83	3.41	1.24	84	-0.4	Rick Greene
Bobby Korecky	49.7	6.34	2.90	1.27	82	-0.5	Terry Clark
Conner Greene	122.7	6.67	3.74	1.47	74	-0.5	Steve Stemle
Donn Roach	124.0	3.85	2.98	1.09	75	-0.5	Jake Joseph
Casey Lawrence	134.0	4.63	2.28	1.28	75	-0.5	Clay Condrey
Brady Dragmire	69.3	5.58	2.86	1.04	84	-0.5	Chuck Crumpton
Greg Infante	48.0	7.69	6.00	1.13	77	-0.7	Bart Evans
Scott Barnes	47.0	7.47	3.83	1.91	70	-0.7	Scott Watkins
John Anderson	82.3	6.12	4.59	1.42	71	-0.8	Matt White
Scott Copeland	131.0	4.81	3.50	1.37	72	-0.8	Ryan Glynn
Austin Bibens-Dirkx	112.0	6.67	2.89	1.85	71	-1.0	Nerio Rodriguez
Andrew Albers	116.3	5.49	2.63	1.70	69	-1.1	Dave Gassner
Scott Diamond	136.3	4.42	2.05	1.78	69	-1.2	Scott Downs

***

Disclaimer: ZiPS projections are computer-based projections of performance. Performances have not been allocated to predicted playing time in the majors — many of the players listed above are unlikely to play in the majors at all in 2016. ZiPS is projecting equivalent production — a .240 ZiPS projection may end up being .280 in AAA or .300 in AA, for example. Whether or not a player will play is one of many non-statistical factors one has to take into account when predicting the future.

Players are listed with their most recent teams unless Dan has made a mistake. This is very possible as a lot of minor-league signings are generally unreported in the offseason.

ZiPS is projecting based on the AL having a 3.95 ERA and the NL having a 3.79 ERA.

Players that are expected to be out due to injury are still projected. More information is always better than less information and a computer isn’t what should be projecting the injury status of, for example, a pitcher with Tommy John surgery.

Regarding ERA+ vs. ERA- (and FIP+ vs. FIP-) and the differences therein: as Patriot notes here, they are not simply mirror images of each other. Writes Patriot: “ERA+ does not tell you that a pitcher’s ERA was X% less or more than the league’s ERA. It tells you that the league’s ERA was X% less or more than the pitcher’s ERA.”

Both hitters and pitchers are ranked by projected zWAR — which is to say, WAR values as calculated by Dan Szymborski, whose surname is spelled with a z. WAR values might differ slightly from those which appear in full release of ZiPS. Finally, Szymborski will advise anyone against — and might karate chop anyone guilty of — merely adding up WAR totals on depth chart to produce projected team WAR.