Archive for October, 2016

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 10/3/16

12:00
Dan Szymborski: Peanut butter jelly time.

12:00
Dan Szymborski: No dancing bananas. Just shut up and eat your sandwich.

12:01
Tim: I’m a big Dodgers fan, what is the teams #1 concern?

12:01
Dan Szymborski: There’s some angry Babylonian god that’s focused primarily on making their starting pitchers injured.

12:01
Dan Szymborski: Or having to go through the Cubs at some point

12:01
Erik: If a team made all of their signings and trades based strictly on ZiPS, never allowing themselves to allow their own intuitions to have any affect, how much better or worse off would they be than a typical organization? What type of great moves would they pull off? What would their biggest blunders be?

Read the rest of this entry »


MLB Largely Prevails in Scout-Pay Lawsuit

One can be forgiven for having forgotten about the Wyckoff v. Office of the Commissioner of Baseball lawsuit. The class action case — filed back in July 2015 by Jordan Wyckoff, a former scout for the Kansas City Royals — accused Major League Baseball and its teams of violating both federal antitrust and employment law by colluding to deprive amateur and professional scouts both of the minimum wage and overtime compensation. Specifically, the case contended that MLB teams have unlawfully agreed not to compete with one another for the services of their scouts, with the result that wages for these employees have, in some cases, been depressed to as little as $5 per hour once all of their various job duties have been accounted for.

Late last year, MLB filed a motion asking the court to dismiss Wyckoff’s antitrust claims under its historic antitrust exemption. At the same time, MLB also argued that the suit’s minimum-wage claims should be dismissed against all but the Royals, since Wyckoff — the only plaintiff named in the suit who was asserting a violation of the minimum-wage and overtime rules — had never been employed by any of the other 29 MLB clubs.

Since then, the parties have waited… and waited… and then waited some more for the court to issue a ruling. That wait mercifully came to an end this past Thursday when Judge Paul Gardephe finally released his long-anticipated decision, more than nine months after MLB’s motion had first been filed.

In his opinion, Judge Gardephe granted MLB all of the relief it had requested, dismissing the overwhelming majority of Wyckoff’s case. As a result, while Wyckoff can continue to pursue his claim for back-pay from the Royals, any hopes he may have had that his suit would spur more systemic changes to the market for MLB scouts appear to have fallen short.

Read the rest of this entry »


FanGraphs Audio: Dayn Perry Secretes Disaster

Episode 686
Dayn Perry is a contributor to CBS Sports’ Eye on Baseball and the author of three books — one of them not very miserable. He’s also the dissatisfied guest on this edition of FanGraphs Audio.

This episode of the program either is or isn’t sponsored by SeatGeek, which site removes both the work and also the hassle from the process of shopping for tickets.

Don’t hesitate to direct pod-related correspondence to @cistulli on Twitter.

You can subscribe to the podcast via iTunes or other feeder things.

Audio after the jump. (Approximately 01 hr 02 min play time.)

Read the rest of this entry »


Players’ View: Farewell David Ortiz

David Ortiz was feted at Fenway Park yesterday. The 40-year-old slugger will retire following the postseason, and he’s deserving of any and all accolades that come his way. “Big Papi” finished the regular-season portion of his career with 541 home runs, 4,765 total bases, and a .931 OPS.

His October exploits are legendary. Ortiz has 17 home runs and 60 RBI in postseason action, many of which have come in key situations. The Red Sox have captured three World Series titles — their first since 1918 — since he joined the team in 2003. His slash line in those Fall Classics is .455/.576/.795.

The Dominican Republic born-and-raised slugger is a Boston icon for more than his on-field accomplishments. His charitable endeavors have been exemplary, his engaging personality omnipresent. His larger-than-life persona has captivated his adopted home. Ortiz will long be remembered for his words following the Boston Marathon bombing: ‘This is our f-ing city.”

Myriad people throughout the game have shared their thoughts on the soon-to-retire superstar in recent weeks. I collected quotes from 15, including players, managers, executives and broadcasters.

———

Dusty Baker, Washington Nationals manager: “I’d have loved to have had David Ortiz on my teams. The postseasons he’s had… he’s carried them by himself, through sheer willpower. David Ortiz is one of the best that’s ever played this game. To me, he’s one of the best leaders that’s played this game. People gravitate toward him. That’s what being a leader is about. If David Ortiz wants it… what Big Papi wants, usually Big Papi gets.”

Read the rest of this entry »


Matt Carpenter’s Long Con, and the Big Reveal

Matt Carpenter did something special last night, on the final day of baseball’s 2016 regular season. I’ll get the anticlimactic part of this all out of the way right now: it didn’t matter. Of course, none of this actually matters, but through the lens of the St. Louis Cardinals’ year and postseason implications, what Carpenter did wound up not meaning a thing. It could’ve meant a thing; Carpenter and the Cardinals had everything to play for. Their only shot at a playoff berth came through a win, and what Carpenter did helped the Cardinals win one of their biggest game of the year, 10-4, over the Pittsburgh Pirates.

But the Cardinals needed some help alongside their win to potentially clinch that playoff berth, and with a loss to the San Francisco Giants, the Los Angeles Dodgers did not provide the necessary help. The win over the Pirates was for nought; the Cardinals were eliminated from postseason contention. Carpenter, though, did all he could — including pulling a trick out of his bag that he’d been waiting more than six years to use.

Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores: Let’s Use Championship Leverage Index

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 15:05 ET
Maeda (173.0 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Moore (190.1 IP, 108 xFIP-)
As in other recent editions of this daily exercise, this current edition of the exercise is the product of an experiment — in particular, with regard to how the team NERD scores are calculated. At this point of the season, those team NERD scores are typically a function of each club’s playoff probability, where a probability of 50% (or, in a recent case, 33%) would yield a NERD score of 10; a probability of either 0% or 100%, a NERD score of 0.

For today, however, NERD scores have instead been calculated by utilizing championship leverage index (cLI) — which metric is, per Dan Hirsch’s Baseball Gauge, “a measurement of the importance of a particular game, based on how a win or a loss affects a team’s World Series win expectancy.” This is essentially the concept of leverage index applied not to a game state but a season state.

What I’ve done is to assess the highest current cLI (San Francisco’s 2.84 mark) a NERD score of 10 and scale all other cLI figures to that. The results of those calculations are below. (Note: all cLI numbers are available here.)

NERD Scores for October 02, 2016 (Using cLI)
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Kevin Gausman BAL 8 4 3 0 7 NYA Luis Cessa 13:05
Brady Rodgers* HOU 5 0 1 0 4 LAA Jhoulys Chacin 15:05
Kenta Maeda LAN 6 0 5 10 4 SF Matt Moore 15:05
Tom Koehler MIA 3 0 2 0 10 WAS Max Scherzer 15:05
Gabriel Ynoa NYN 4 0 1 0 5 PHI Jerad Eickhoff 15:05
Chase Whitley* TB 6 0 1 0 4 TEX Martin Perez 15:05
Aaron Sanchez TOR 8 4 4 0 8 BOS David Price 15:05
Kyle Hendricks CHN 8 0 1 0 3 CIN Robert Stephenson 15:10
Justin Verlander DET 7 9 5 0 5 ATL Julio Teheran 15:10
Tyler Cravy* MIL 5 0 2 0 7 COL German Marquez* 15:10
Jose Berrios MIN 4 0 2 0 9 CHA Chris Sale 15:10
Sean Manaea OAK 8 0 2 0 4 SEA Felix Hernandez 15:10
Paul Clemens SD 0 0 1 0 5 AZ Matt Koch* 15:10
Josh Tomlin CLE 6 0 1 0 4 KC Ian Kennedy 15:15
Ryan Vogelsong PIT 2 0 4 9 5 STL Adam Wainwright 15:15
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals’ and Giants’ and Tigers’ team scores are the highest. They’re among a paucity a minority of clubs whose seasons haven’t been resolved. Because none of them are playing each other, however, none of the games themselves are likely to reach peak drama. All in all, it appears as though the Giants game is most urgent in its way. FanGraphs readers prefer Vin Scully’s Dodgers broadcast for this and every contest.


Sunday Notes: Buxton, Bucs’ Frazier, Jays, AL Cy Young, more

On September 1, Byron Buxton returned from a stint in Triple-A and proceeded to go 15 for 37 with five home runs over 10 games. Talking to him at the tail end of that stretch, I got a good feel for what was driving his success. The 22-year-old phenom was just playing baseball.

When expectations are sky-high, that’s easier said than done. Buxton was drafted second overall by the Minnesota Twins in 2012, and shortly thereafter he was ordained as the game’s No. 1 prospect. Media attention was heavy. Every success and failure was scrutinized. Being Byron Buxton was burdensome.

That’s slowly changing. Buxton told me that this is “probably the least attention,” he’s received since turning pro. He still feels pressure to perform, but at the same time, it’s easier for him to “not worry about what people are saying, or expecting.”

He admits to pressing early in the season. He also owns up to getting away from what comes natural. Read the rest of this entry »


NERD Game Scores: So Much Depends Upon a Red Ballclub

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.

***

Most Highly Rated Game
Pittsburgh at St. Louis | 13:05 ET
Kuhl (65.2 IP, 108 xFIP-) vs. Wacha (137.0 IP, 97 xFIP-)
Over the last few days, in an attempt to fully illustrate the absurdity of this ongoing endeavor, the author has presented some alternative scoring methods and scales for these NERD game scores. To describe the public as “scandalized” would be an exercise in understatement. The mailbox is full of letters — the electronic mailbox, full of electronic letters — all of them saying one thing: “We are scandalized, Carson.”

Today, this hard look into the gauzy mists of our humanity continues. Below are two different, but also not entirely different, versions of the NERD scores for today’s games. The first one is a product of the methodology utilized in yesterday’s post. For this one, team scores are based entirely on the relevant club’s postseason odds — namely, the proximity of those odds to 33.3% repeating. A probability of precisely 33.3% yields a NERD score of 10; of either 0% or 100%, a score of 0.

The results of that:

NERD Scores for October 01, 2016 (Version 1)
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Bartolo Colon NYN 4 0 1 0 4 PHI Phil Klein* 13:05
Chad Kuhl PIT 6 0 4 6 7 STL Michael Wacha 13:05
Wade Miley BAL 7 1 2 0 9 NYA Luis Severino 16:05
Clayton Kershaw LAN 10 0 3 3 5 SF Ty Blach* 16:05
Wei-Yin Chen MIA 6 0 1 0 5 WAS Tanner Roark 16:05
Jon Lester CHN 7 0 1 0 3 CIN Tim Adleman 16:10
Trevor Bauer CLE 6 0 1 0 5 KC Edinson Volquez 16:15
Jordan Zimmermann DET 4 5 3 0 1 ATL Aaron Blair 19:10
Hector Santiago MIN 1 0 0 0 1 CHA James Shields 19:10
J.A. Happ TOR 5 4 3 0 5 BOS Eduardo Rodriguez 19:10
Jake Odorizzi TB 5 0 1 0 3 TEX Colby Lewis 20:05
Wily Peralta MIL 6 0 1 0 1 COL Jeff Hoffman 20:10
Clayton Richard SD 5 0 1 0 6 AZ Archie Bradley 20:10
Collin McHugh HOU 6 0 2 0 6 LAA Tyler Skaggs 21:05
Jharel Cotton OAK 5 0 3 5 3 SEA Hisashi Iwakuma 21:10
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.

Read the rest of this entry »


The Best of FanGraphs: September 26-30, 2016

Each week, we publish north of 100 posts on our various blogs. With this post, we hope to highlight 10 to 15 of them. You can read more on it here. The links below are color coded — green for FanGraphs, brown for RotoGraphs, dark red for The Hardball Times and blue for Community Research.
Read the rest of this entry »