NERD Game Scores: Let’s Use Championship Leverage Index

Devised originally in response to a challenge issued by sabermetric nobleman Rob Neyer, and expanded at the request of nobody, NERD scores represent an attempt to summarize in one number (and on a scale of 0-10) the likely aesthetic appeal or watchability, for the learned fan, of a player or team or game. Read more about the components of and formulae for NERD scores here.


Most Highly Rated Game
Los Angeles NL at San Francisco | 15:05 ET
Maeda (173.0 IP, 89 xFIP-) vs. Moore (190.1 IP, 108 xFIP-)
As in other recent editions of this daily exercise, this current edition of the exercise is the product of an experiment — in particular, with regard to how the team NERD scores are calculated. At this point of the season, those team NERD scores are typically a function of each club’s playoff probability, where a probability of 50% (or, in a recent case, 33%) would yield a NERD score of 10; a probability of either 0% or 100%, a NERD score of 0.

For today, however, NERD scores have instead been calculated by utilizing championship leverage index (cLI) — which metric is, per Dan Hirsch’s Baseball Gauge, “a measurement of the importance of a particular game, based on how a win or a loss affects a team’s World Series win expectancy.” This is essentially the concept of leverage index applied not to a game state but a season state.

What I’ve done is to assess the highest current cLI (San Francisco’s 2.84 mark) a NERD score of 10 and scale all other cLI figures to that. The results of those calculations are below. (Note: all cLI numbers are available here.)

NERD Scores for October 02, 2016 (Using cLI)
Away SP TM GM TM SP Home Time
Kevin Gausman BAL 8 4 3 0 7 NYA Luis Cessa 13:05
Brady Rodgers* HOU 5 0 1 0 4 LAA Jhoulys Chacin 15:05
Kenta Maeda LAN 6 0 5 10 4 SF Matt Moore 15:05
Tom Koehler MIA 3 0 2 0 10 WAS Max Scherzer 15:05
Gabriel Ynoa NYN 4 0 1 0 5 PHI Jerad Eickhoff 15:05
Chase Whitley* TB 6 0 1 0 4 TEX Martin Perez 15:05
Aaron Sanchez TOR 8 4 4 0 8 BOS David Price 15:05
Kyle Hendricks CHN 8 0 1 0 3 CIN Robert Stephenson 15:10
Justin Verlander DET 7 9 5 0 5 ATL Julio Teheran 15:10
Tyler Cravy* MIL 5 0 2 0 7 COL German Marquez* 15:10
Jose Berrios MIN 4 0 2 0 9 CHA Chris Sale 15:10
Sean Manaea OAK 8 0 2 0 4 SEA Felix Hernandez 15:10
Paul Clemens SD 0 0 1 0 5 AZ Matt Koch* 15:10
Josh Tomlin CLE 6 0 1 0 4 KC Ian Kennedy 15:15
Ryan Vogelsong PIT 2 0 4 9 5 STL Adam Wainwright 15:15
SP denotes pitcher NERD score.
TM denotes team score.
GM denotes overall game score.
Highlighted portion denotes game of the day.

* = Fewer than 10 IP, NERD at discretion of clueless author.

Unsurprisingly, the Cardinals’ and Giants’ and Tigers’ team scores are the highest. They’re among a paucity a minority of clubs whose seasons haven’t been resolved. Because none of them are playing each other, however, none of the games themselves are likely to reach peak drama. All in all, it appears as though the Giants game is most urgent in its way. FanGraphs readers prefer Vin Scully’s Dodgers broadcast for this and every contest.

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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7 years ago

The Giants Dodgers game will actually have Vin Scully broadcast on all channels right? Seems like the preferred audio ought be anything that has the most of the last of Vin.