2017 World Series Game 7 Live Blog
7:56 |
: Happy Game 7 everyone!
|
7:56 |
I am rooting for
The Dodgers (46.5% | 154 votes)
The Astros (53.4% | 177 votes)
Total Votes: 331
|
7:56 |
I think the
Dodgers will win (62.3% | 195 votes)
Astros will win (37.6% | 118 votes)
Total Votes: 313
|
7:57 |
Clayton Kershaw will face
0 batters (2.1% | 7 votes)
1-3 batters (16.4% | 53 votes)
4-6 batters (48.7% | 157 votes)
7-9 batters (22.9% | 74 votes)
9+ batters (9.6% | 31 votes)
Total Votes: 322
|
7:58 |
Justin Verlander will face
0 batters (36.7% | 116 votes)
1-3 batters (42.4% | 134 votes)
4-6 batters (14.8% | 47 votes)
6-9 batters (3.1% | 10 votes)
7-ow my arm (2.8% | 9 votes)
Total Votes: 316
|
7:58 |
Who lasts longer?
Darvish (50.8% | 152 votes)
McCullers (49.1% | 147 votes)
Total Votes: 299
|
8:00 |
Charlie Morton’s stuff will make me say
Holy $*!& (13.4% | 38 votes)
Unfair (5.3% | 15 votes)
Nasty (19.8% | 56 votes)
That’s Charlie Morton? (61.3% | 173 votes)
Total Votes: 282
|
8:02 |
: Hi Dave!
|
8:02 |
: Hi Byron!
|
8:02 |
: Dave will post X more polls:
|
8:02 |
|
8:02 |
: If I write something here it appears in chat?!?
|
8:02 |
: Depends on what you say.
|
8:02 |
: I made an impromptu trip to LA yesterday for Game 6. It took me *2.5 hours* to get to the stadium
|
8:02 |
: Was Brian McCann carrying you?
|
8:02 |
: Now that you can’t vote for “more baseball”, do you have a rooting interest?
|
8:03 |
|
8:03 |
: Or a bad call.
|
8:03 |
: Just one clear winner who outplays the other tonight.
|
8:03 |
: I was carrying Brian McCann!
|
8:03 |
: Is there anyway Maeda would be more valuable in relief during the regular season?
|
8:03 |
: Yup.
|
8:04 |
|
8:04 |
: They’d have to re-work his contract, though, since so much of it was incentive based and tied to starts.
|
8:04 |
: I think watching the D^%gers win it will be more painful than watching the Giants lose it.
|
8:04 |
: Hey Dave, thanks for anther great year and the constant coverage… and everything.
|
8:05 |
: Thanks for hanging with us.
|
8:05 |
: If this game ends in a blowout, can we still say this series one of the greatest ever?
|
8:05 |
|
8:06 |
: I love baseball, but I think I’m ready for it to be over after tonight. Been a great, but very long/tiring month
|
8:06 |
: My wife nods vigorously.
|
8:06 |
: If YOU ran the Dodgers and were faced with the same 5th-inning quagmire as Hill had last night, would you bring in Jansen?
|
8:07 |
: Tonight? Yeah, I think you have to use Jansen to go after the 1-4 guys when you don’t have any good alternatives. So if Darvish can’t make it through 5 and those guys are coming up, then Jansen.
|
8:07 |
: Where’s Kip tonight?!!
|
8:07 |
|
8:07 |
: Joey Votto called McCullers’ curve a slider. Thoughts?
|
8:08 |
: It’s one of the reasons I like the term breaking ball. Some of these pitches very much blur the lines.
|
8:08 |
: Also, haven’t you only lived in Bend less than a year. As an adult with a child who works from home…how do you have 3 friends! Are you the most charming man alive?
|
8:08 |
: My wife shakes her head vigorously.
|
8:09 |
: (Kip’s son was in my son’s preschool class, we live on the same street, so I just stole his friends)
|
8:09 |
|
8:09 |
: Yeah, if it’s close and they burn through their other SPs, I bet we see him for a few batters.
|
8:09 |
: Greetings from Holland. 1 AM here, now let’s pray I don’t fall asleep….
|
8:09 |
: That’s dedication.
|
8:11 |
: Is there a sense as to who others in your area want to win? Pro-Astros bc AL or anti-Astros since they’re in the same division as the M’s?
|
8:11 |
: My area is full of X-games burnouts who don’t know this game is going on but are looking forward to shredding some pow, bro.
|
8:12 |
|
8:12 |
: I’m speaking for her, but I’m pretty sure I’m right.
|
8:12 |
: Hideo, you’re not alone…
|
8:12 |
: Great to watch with you guys from the Jakarta Marriot. 7am here.
|
8:13 |
: I’m nervous and I’m not even a fan of these teams.
|
8:13 |
: Over/under 4.5 hrs tonight?
|
8:13 |
|
8:13 |
: Watching in Tokyo from my Airbnb <3
|
8:13 |
: Hopefully over
|
8:13 |
: Ok sadist
|
8:14 |
Brandon Morrow is throwing out the ceremonial first pitch
|
8:14 |
: Chilling it Chicago 7 PM right now. Don’t know if I’ll make it
|
8:14 |
: Hello Hideo and Giant, I’m in Zurich, also 1 am!
|
8:14 |
: Great to join you guys from the moon, not sure what time it is here.
|
8:14 |
: Hey Hideo from Holland! I’m in Germany!
|
8:14 |
: If the Darvish/Jansen/Kershaw plan trips up, where do you think it will trip up?
|
8:15 |
: Kershaw on short rest hasn’t been great. If he has to roll through the good Houston hitters, that could be trouble.
|
8:15 |
: Watching from a public bath just outside of Kyoto.
|
8:15 |
: I’m choosing your chat over 538’s chat and Cespedes Family BBQ, you’d better deliver
|
8:15 |
: I have a healthy UCL so I have that going over Mintz
|
8:15 |
: this is simultaneously the worst and best day of my life
|
8:16 |
: if you could pick any pitcher in baseball to start a game 7 who would you choose?
|
8:16 |
: Full rest Kershaw
|
8:16 |
: ACL > UCL sorry Dave
|
8:16 |
: My ACL is okay-ish! They won’t let me sprint yet but I’m back to jogging.
|
8:16 |
: Dave, there was a bet going around during game 5. How many wu tang members can you name?
|
8:16 |
: Uh, 0.
|
8:16 |
: Did you get your free taco today?
|
8:16 |
: No way
|
8:16 |
: Did anyone get their free taco today?
|
8:17 |
: Those promotions are never worth it. Line is 20x normal, but you save $1
|
8:17 |
: I did!
|
8:17 |
: I paid for authentic tacos today.
|
8:17 |
: ACL, MCL, UCL…sneer!
|
8:17 |
: No free tacos in Jakarta.
|
8:17 |
: How long would this game have to go on before Hinch would consider bringing Giles in?
|
8:18 |
: I’d say at least 11
|
8:18 |
: Hinch basically just said Verlander is pitching
|
8:19 |
: I’m in Paris, it’s 1 am, and I’m hoping for over 4,5 hours. I don’t want the season to end :/
|
8:19 |
: Can you at least admit that Kershaw has performed worse in the playoffs that the regular season over his career?
|
8:19 |
: Of course. Who disputes that?
|
8:19 |
: Dave, you truly believe there is NO significance to Kershaw’s postseason underachievement?
|
8:19 |
: Yep.
|
8:19 |
: Do we bring out Kershaw if we don’t have a lead?
|
8:19 |
: Yes, he pitches no matter what.
|
8:19 |
: JV pitching “if a lead late.”
|
8:19 |
: He’s the closer, basically.
|
8:19 |
: Unless Peacock just shoves and they’re up big.
|
8:20 |
: What determines using Kershaw or Jansen first? Matchups and handedness?
|
8:20 |
: Yeah, probably.
|
8:20 |
: Potentially batting order too.
|
8:20 |
: Don’t want to bring in Kershaw when the P spot is due up soon.
|
8:20 |
: But maybe willing to do that with Jansen if you only plan on getting 1 IP from him anyway.
|
8:21 |
: You think there’s a legit chance Jansen comes in in the 5th?
|
8:21 |
: Yes.
|
8:21 |
: Why not start Kershaw and bring Darvish in for relief?
|
8:21 |
: Better to let Darvish face the good righties as many times as possible.
|
8:22 |
: Here we go!
|
8:22 |
: First slider didn’t look great.
|
8:22 |
: Neither did second one.
|
8:22 |
: *breaking ball
|
8:22 |
: #slickball
|
8:23 |
: Second one looked like the first.
|
8:23 |
: That’s not what Roberts wanted to see.
|
8:23 |
: That’s a very bad sign for Darvish.
|
8:23 |
: grooved one after two sliders miss badly
|
8:23 |
: Couple awful sliders to start it off
|
8:23 |
: That happened, things are happening
|
8:23 |
: Doesn’t he also have a curve ball? Did they learn nothing?
|
8:23 |
: Welp
|
8:24 |
: Basically as good a start as Houston could hope for
|
8:24 |
: Anyone up in the bullpen?
|
8:24 |
: That was a weak grounder.
|
8:24 |
: Don’t panic.
|
8:24 |
: What a nightmare start.
|
8:24 |
: Yikes.
|
8:24 |
: whoops
|
8:24 |
: 2nd basemen should have fielded that one
|
8:24 |
: What an awful throw.
|
8:24 |
: Everyone had the ‘stros up 1-0 4 pitches in, now the real game begins
|
8:24 |
: Important take: Astros should have gone with the road grays
|
8:24 |
: Yeah, that wasn’t Darvish’s fault.
|
8:24 |
: Just one run
|
8:25 |
: Another meh slider.
|
8:25 |
: Another weak slider.
|
8:25 |
: That one looked better
|
8:25 |
: Fight!
|
8:25 |
: Aggressive steal there.
|
8:25 |
: Go sports team!
|
8:25 |
: Infield in?
|
8:25 |
: Have someone up!
|
8:25 |
: “trying to hit a moving target” that’s why you throw it to the base and hope the pitcher gets there, not try to hit the pitcher
|
8:26 |
: Preparing for this to get bad fast
|
8:26 |
: Should Bellinger have thrown home?
|
8:26 |
: Not hit hard enough.
|
8:26 |
: Man, that’s a rough way to start, only hard contact was the first hit.
|
8:26 |
: Goodness…8 pitches in and ‘stros up 2 runs
|
8:26 |
: Aggressive again with zero outs going home on hit to first
|
8:26 |
: Are these “really good at bats”? Great leadoff double, but then two pieces of weak contact.
|
8:27 |
: They moved the runners along. This is Game 7.
|
8:27 |
: If we’ve learned anything from this series, it’s that this game is in the books.
|
8:27 |
: I think the Altuve grounder was somewhat intentional.
|
8:27 |
: What a good baserunning by Bregman
|
8:27 |
: Another chopper.
|
8:28 |
: Bregman is as unafraid of a big moment as I’ve ever seen in a young player. Dude has so much confidence
|
8:28 |
: So Darvish with no slider is not a great pitcher.
|
8:28 |
: Springer hit a bad slider, but everything else has been fine.
|
8:28 |
: Dave do you buy the slippery ball argument?
|
8:28 |
: Not really.
|
8:29 |
: Tip of the cap by Gurriel.
|
8:29 |
: Nice gesture
|
8:29 |
: Without the throwing error, this inning is over with 3 weak ground balls and we’re saying Darvish looks good
|
8:29 |
: outside corner looks big
|
8:29 |
: #Framing
|
8:29 |
: that isnt a strike!!!!!
|
8:30 |
: That was one of his worst sliders yet.
|
8:30 |
: That one was still going toward Gurriel.
|
8:30 |
: Gurriel just missed a nice pitch to hit
|
8:30 |
: That was a nightmare slider
|
8:30 |
: That looked like a two-seamer almost.
|
8:30 |
: When your slider looks like a two-seamer, that’s bad.
|
8:31 |
: And that was good
|
8:31 |
: Better, for sure. Still not great.
|
8:31 |
: Darvish testing that outside edge.
|
8:31 |
: That was a strike the first two times
|
8:31 |
: Ump correcting his wide corner.
|
8:31 |
: HE CALLED THAT A STRIKE FOUR PITCHES AGO
|
8:31 |
: That was a strike 3 pitches ago
|
8:31 |
: that was the exact same spot where he already called two strikes
|
8:31 |
: I think the 3rd ball was better than the 2nd called strike
|
8:31 |
: That was a strike the first two times
|
8:31 |
: A strike 3 pitches ago.
|
8:32 |
: Another hanger.
|
8:32 |
: He might need to find a different second pitch.
|
8:32 |
: And another hanger.
|
8:32 |
: Why doesn’t he go to his curveball if he doesn’t have a feel for the slider?
|
8:32 |
: Meatball there
|
8:32 |
: Kershaw getting up
|
8:32 |
: Darvish still searching.
|
8:32 |
: Another hanger.
|
8:32 |
: So many sliders.
|
8:33 |
: Throw something else, Yu.
|
8:33 |
: His slider usage jumped from 18% last year to 25% this year, he barely threw his curve (6%) and change (2%)
|
8:33 |
: That was a good one.
|
8:33 |
: Gurriel just got it.
|
8:34 |
: Best pitch of the inning
|
8:34 |
: That was a slider, and a damn good one
|
8:34 |
: he does have a top 5 slider in baseball, so that usage makes sense
|
8:34 |
: Gurriel is doing a great job fouling off some nasty pitches this AB.
|
8:34 |
: Finally.
|
8:34 |
: Does Yu get the 2nd?
|
8:34 |
: Yes, but now I’m not sure he gets an at-bat.
|
8:34 |
: Do pitch counts really matter tonight?
|
8:34 |
: No
|
8:35 |
: Why are you the Lone Ranger Dave? No one wanted to play with you?
|
8:35 |
: Carson said he’ll be here “after dinner”
|
8:35 |
: It’s 8:30 in Maine. I have no idea when he eats dinner.
|
8:35 |
: They matter as far as fatigue
|
8:35 |
: Well, yeah. But he was never throwing 100+ no matter what.
|
8:36 |
: After the third glass of chardonnay
|
8:36 |
: Maybe he’s eating a TV dinner.
|
8:36 |
: Doesn’t Carson operate on Paris time?
|
8:37 |
: Carson seems like he probably enjoys a leisurely dinner.
|
8:37 |
: Can we take a minute and have someone explain what the deal with Carson is? Does he actually not like baseball?
|
8:37 |
: It’s a running joke, but he’s more into projecting the future than living in the present.
|
8:38 |
: So he’d rather watch an Arizona Fall League game than an MLB one.
|
8:38 |
: Chris Taylor
|
8:38 |
: YES
|
8:38 |
: Yeeessir
|
8:38 |
: The juice is loose!
|
8:38 |
: Hanging curve from McCullers
|
8:38 |
: Now that’s a double
|
8:38 |
: This game is going to be 20-19
|
8:38 |
: If pitchers can decide to not give up runs, why would he give up that double?
|
8:38 |
: This feels like the AL wild card game
|
8:39 |
: All the hangers in this game.
|
8:39 |
: Here we go again…
|
8:39 |
: that curve was worse than any slider yu threw. at least darvish had some tight movement
|
8:39 |
: That kid can hit
|
8:39 |
: This gonna be a 6 hour game lol
|
8:40 |
: It’s 11.40am in Sydney Australia… awesome time of day to watch a 6 hour game…
|
8:40 |
: i hate these counting stat records in the playoffs — there’s more games now, so of course there’s gonna be a record!
|
8:40 |
: “establishing the fastball” count = 2
|
8:40 |
: Was that Mike Fiers?
|
8:40 |
: Hi Mike Fiers!
|
8:41 |
: Ahhh that curve
|
8:41 |
: If this is a six hour game I am going to boycott the league by not watching any baseball until, I dunno, March. East coasters are people too, and I already slept through game 7 last year!
|
8:41 |
: Nasty curves.
|
8:41 |
: Don’t usually see Seager swinging at that.
|
8:41 |
: Wowie
|
8:41 |
: Seager swings/misses on that same pitch a ton
|
8:41 |
: As a dodger fan im already in full blown panic mode
|
8:42 |
: I am very overdue!!!
|
8:42 |
: just lay off the curveee
|
8:42 |
: seager doesnt have a chance against that curve
|
8:42 |
: Brutal, by Seager
|
8:42 |
: dont swing at anything that doesn’t start above your head
|
8:42 |
: Turner missed one there.
|
8:42 |
what does establish the fastball even mean
|
8:42 |
: And Smoltz pushing for McCuller’s to use his 2nd best pitch more with Buck tagging along. Sigh.
|
8:43 |
: Fastball Established 1904
|
8:43 |
: I still wish we had a McCullers-Hill duel. All the curveballs!
|
8:43 |
: Establish fastball=throw fastball sometimes
|
8:43 |
: filth
|
8:43 |
: Establish a fastball is old generation wording for “you CANT throw only breaking balls.. right? That’s blasphemous”
|
8:43 |
: As Turner swings right over a curve
|
8:43 |
: definitely don’t swing if it STARTS low
|
8:43 |
: 88 MPH curve, how do you compete against that?
|
8:43 |
: When I was pitching I would have done it all different …
|
8:44 |
: So far, McCullers has thrown 8 curves, 4 fastballs
|
8:44 |
: Have none of you ever played baseball? Establishing the fastball means throwing it for strikes early on so that the batter has a harder time guessing between your fastball/breaking ball second/third time through the order.
|
8:44 |
: We’ve played baseball, and we’ve watched baseball enough to know to stop trusting things some guy’s dad told us when we were 13.
|
8:44 |
: There’s no evidence you have to start with fastballs early.
|
8:44 |
: Turner wishes it was number 9
|
8:44 |
: He established the fastball.
|
8:44 |
: Should McCullers even throw Bellinger a curve in the zone?
|
8:45 |
: No
|
8:45 |
: Odds of Bellinger striking out on a backfoot curveball: 94%.
|
8:45 |
: This inning ends 2-0 or 3-2
|
8:45 |
: McCullers should establish the curveball
|
8:45 |
: With how this WS has gone, Bellinger will hit a dinger here
|
8:46 |
: Establish the 4-6-3.
|
8:46 |
: He should establish the pitch with the best probability to record an out
|
8:46 |
: McCullers should establish justice
|
8:46 |
: McCullers should establish the gyro-ball.
|
8:46 |
: He should establish where my real dad is
|
8:46 |
: 99%
|
8:47 |
: Good looking curve
|
8:47 |
: Lol that’s a Bellinger Special
|
8:47 |
: well those are just really good spots
|
8:47 |
: Predictable AB
|
8:47 |
: Bellinger is good but that’s not a good match-up for him
|
8:47 |
: Oh Belli …
|
8:47 |
: Strike 2 just an amazing pitch.
|
8:47 |
: This is beautiful
|
8:47 |
: Keep throwing curves to him
|
8:47 |
: Lulz.
|
8:47 |
: Yeah that tends to happen
|
8:47 |
: Somebody called the backfoot curve
|
8:47 |
: There you go establishing the curve
|
8:47 |
: How difficult is it to lay off a goddamn curveball? Sheesh.
|
8:47 |
: Clearly difficult.
|
8:48 |
: by the time you realize it’s a curve, you’ve already committed
|
8:48 |
: It’s really, really hard guys!
|
8:48 |
: My simpleton advice says – don’t swing. Just don’t swing.
|
8:48 |
: I think his name should be Lance McCurvers
|
8:48 |
: Problem is, when you lay off the curve, it’s a fastball in the zone.
|
8:49 |
: that looked like a strike
|
8:49 |
: Doesn’t get that high strike.
|
8:49 |
: BAD CALL
|
8:49 |
: Where did the ump think that pitch was?
|
8:49 |
: Wtf blue?..
|
8:49 |
: Is bellinger being exposed or is this a case of everyone knew the holes and good pitchers are exploiting it better then average pitchers?
|
8:49 |
: McCullers isn’t easy to hit.
|
8:49 |
: Bellinger has been fine this series.
|
8:49 |
: What’s Wegner’s rep behind the plate?
|
8:49 |
: Slightly small zone
|
8:50 |
: You guys overreact so much to every strike call, calm down a little
|
8:50 |
: McCullers fastball command not there yet.
|
8:50 |
: Establish the beanball!
|
8:50 |
: Stop throwing fastballs!
|
8:50 |
: He’s establishing the HBP
|
8:50 |
: That’s why you curveball
|
8:50 |
: He’s overestablished the fastball
|
8:50 |
: IT’S OKAY – HIT THEM ALL – KEEP HITTING THEM
|
8:50 |
: McHBP
|
8:50 |
: Also, BATFLIP ON A HBP
|
8:50 |
: Establish the elbow guard.
|
8:50 |
: Jesus McCullers
|
8:51 |
: Time for your WS MVP to hit a grand slam here
|
8:51 |
: JOC-TOBER lol
|
8:51 |
: Was gonna be ball 4
|
8:51 |
: Joc locks up MVP with a big hit
|
8:51 |
: If Peterson homers here, will be make it around the bases before spontaneously combusting?
|
8:51 |
: Generous call
|
8:51 |
: Lefty zone call IMO
|
8:52 |
: 89 MPH curveball, ridiculous.
|
8:52 |
: take everything
|
8:52 |
: N.I.C.E. curve
|
8:52 |
: I SAID TAKE
|
8:52 |
: Dave barely has to chat tonight. Just post comments
|
8:52 |
: Curveball heaven
|
8:52 |
: Curveball established.
|
8:52 |
: Up to 4 curveballs coming here.
|
8:52 |
: he should throw 4 more of those … until he strikes out or walks
|
8:52 |
: Contact!
|
8:52 |
: *exhales*
|
8:52 |
: I will marry that curveball
|
8:52 |
: SIT DOWN JOC!
|
8:52 |
: Bad luck
|
8:52 |
: 32 minutes in and one inning down. Grab some snacks and coffee it’s going to be a doozy. Over/under 12:30 EST finish?
|
8:52 |
: Not a good 0-2 but he got away with it
|
8:52 |
: That was way better than a homer
|
8:52 |
: How many people in the chat?
|
8:52 |
: ~800
|
8:53 |
: Dave mainly posting our comments is… a compliment to our content, or Dave putting his feet up and relaxing?
|
8:53 |
: There’s so many comments
|
8:53 |
: I’m trying not to ignore you guys
|
8:53 |
: But I think we had like 12 or 13 pages of comments in the Saturday night chat. I’m on page 5 already.
|
8:53 |
: Hello, ~800 friends
|
8:53 |
: We are loners who appreciate the attention
|
8:53 |
: all quality comments. no shame. we’re the best
|
8:54 |
: Dave always lets the chat flow a little more than other chatters, I appreciate it. Nice to know he sees we exist
|
8:54 |
: Hello Bork!!!
|
8:54 |
: Hi Bork!
|
8:54 |
: Hello friend
|
8:54 |
: Hey Bork
|
8:54 |
: Hello friend
|
8:54 |
: Go fangraphs go. And become a member if you haven’t already!
|
8:54 |
: Hello Bork. this game would not be complete without you
|
8:54 |
: Establish the comments
|
8:55 |
: 97 MPH, 65% hit probability on that Joc groundout…
|
8:55 |
: What kind of leash does Darvish have this inning?
|
8:55 |
: Pitcher spot due up next inning, so probably a decent one
|
8:55 |
: Don’t want to bring in Kershaw then make him hit immediately
|
8:55 |
: I second the become a member request
|
8:56 |
: Kershaw in the 3rd?
|
8:56 |
: Depends how this goes.
|
8:56 |
: Darvish seemingly can’t locate
|
8:56 |
: that was a decent curveball
|
8:56 |
: Ick.
|
8:57 |
: McCann could have hit that to the moon.
|
8:57 |
: Hanger
|
8:57 |
: I don’t get it – doesn’t Darvish throw like 8 different pitches?
|
8:57 |
: He’s cut down.
|
8:57 |
: that’s not a ball
|
8:57 |
: That was a nice pitch – not sure how McCann fouled that off.
|
8:58 |
: The difference in this game so far has been Astros hitters fouling off strikeout pictures, and dodgers hitters whiffing
|
8:58 |
: Walking McCann is not…ideal.
|
8:58 |
: Looks like the slider is 50/50 at this point when it felt like 90/10 last inning
|
8:58 |
: Has thrown 13 sliders so far
|
8:58 |
: Of 32 pitches
|
8:58 |
: If you don’t have it, stop trying to throw it.
|
8:59 |
: When does the pen arrive?
|
8:59 |
: At this rate, soon.
|
8:59 |
: Hard to see him getting to hit if he doesn’t turn it on right now
|
8:59 |
: I think the Dodgers are hoping 3rd inning
|
8:59 |
: You let him face Springer again?
|
9:00 |
: Don’t have enough rested RHPs to not do so.
|
9:00 |
: 90 on the four-seamer, is that where Yu sits?
|
9:00 |
: That was a cutter
|
9:00 |
: He’s sitting 95 on the four-seamer
|
9:01 |
: He doesn’t make it through the inning.
|
9:01 |
: Marweeeeeeeeeeeen
|
9:01 |
: Uh oh
|
9:01 |
: Yu has to be done.
|
9:01 |
: It’s not too early to throw Jansen, is it? There’s every chance this is as close as the game gets if they don’t bring him in.
|
9:01 |
: McCann running dot gif
|
9:01 |
: Pull him
|
9:01 |
: McCann is SO SLOWWWWW
|
9:01 |
: Darvish not long for this game
|
9:01 |
: Right down the middle is the only place a strike is called accurately
|
9:01 |
: Yu got served
|
9:01 |
: gotta K reddick and get to mccullers
|
9:02 |
: Next pitcher please, thank you
|
9:02 |
: darvish has established giving up doubles
|
9:02 |
: Clutch time for me?
|
9:02 |
: Oh boy Reddick is up. Love me some narratives.
|
9:02 |
: I’d bring in Jansen for the top of the order if there are still 0 outs
|
9:02 |
: Morrow warming.
|
9:02 |
: Not ideal.
|
9:02 |
: Would Reddick crushing a 3 run homer here be poetic justice or something else?
|
9:02 |
: Runners on 2nd and 3rd, small Astros lead, no outs, Reddick and the pitcher coming up. This feels familiar…
|
9:03 |
: Yu needed that badly
|
9:03 |
: That was lucky.
|
9:03 |
: Unclutch
|
9:03 |
: McCann is so slow
|
9:03 |
: pitch hit here?
|
9:03 |
: I would, yes.
|
9:03 |
: But no way they do.
|
9:03 |
: best possible outcome for reddick — only one out
|
9:03 |
: Reddick has been ?
|
9:03 |
: McCullers bomb plz
|
9:03 |
: Lance is batting lefty!
|
9:04 |
: How deep a fly would it take to score McCann?
|
9:04 |
: HR
|
9:04 |
: Uh he actually looks like a hitter
|
9:04 |
: That’s a hack.
|
9:04 |
: Looks like real-ass hitter
|
9:04 |
: Genuine LOL.
|
9:04 |
: Way better than JV!
|
9:04 |
: yu have got to be kidding me
|
9:04 |
: wtf McCullers has a swing
|
9:04 |
: He reminds me of Mike hampton
|
9:04 |
: RBI McCullers
|
9:04 |
: Helping your own cause
|
9:04 |
: THE HUSTLE
|
9:04 |
: I mean, he got the job done.
|
9:04 |
: MCCANN MADE IT
|
9:05 |
: How do you not go home on that?
|
9:05 |
: Should’ve gone home
|
9:05 |
: I can’t believe he didn’t take a shot at home
|
9:05 |
: He had McCann!
|
9:05 |
: McCullers hit the curve. Irony!
|
9:05 |
: Why not have the infield in there?
|
9:05 |
: Should the infield have been in there?
|
9:05 |
: Why aren’t the Dodgers playing in on the grass?
|
9:05 |
: why not play infield all the way in there?
|
9:05 |
: Why does Darvish keep going slider? It’s been garbage this series and he has at least two other good offspeeds.
|
9:06 |
: STOP THROWING THE SLIDER
|
9:06 |
: “At the knees”
|
9:06 |
: Great frame on that 4seam
|
9:06 |
: Establish the world-class pitch-framing
|
9:06 |
: Is that good framing? It looks overaggressive to my eye
|
9:06 |
: Yeah he snapped it more than you want.
|
9:07 |
: pull a Girardi and take him out mid at bat
|
9:07 |
: Don’t want to take him out for an RP to get 1 out and then get PH for
|
9:07 |
: So Roberts will try to let him get this
|
9:07 |
: oh lord
|
9:07 |
: Another bad slider
|
9:07 |
: That was a SWING
|
9:07 |
: Hey! He got a whiff on that hanger.
|
9:07 |
: felt the breeze on that swing
|
9:08 |
: Well there’s your MVP.
|
9:08 |
: Darvish knew immediately
|
9:08 |
: SPRINGER
|
9:08 |
: BOMB
|
9:08 |
: Wow
|
9:08 |
: Game.
|
9:08 |
: oh dear
|
9:08 |
: MVP MVP MVP
|
9:08 |
: ALSO A SWING
|
9:08 |
: SPRINGER DINGER
|
9:08 |
: That is a large home run
|
9:08 |
: wowwww
|
9:08 |
: Wow.
|
9:08 |
: Springer Dinger!!!
|
9:08 |
: Just broke Reggie Jackson’s record
|
9:08 |
: slider?
|
9:08 |
: RIP Yu Darvish. Never stood a chance.
|
9:08 |
: Juiced ball or not, that was a laser
|
9:08 |
: You can go get him now.
|
9:08 |
: Fastball… not established.
|
9:08 |
: HE KILLED THE RALLY!
|
9:09 |
: Morrow coming in
|
9:09 |
: This is worst case scenario for LA
|
9:09 |
: Morrow either gets 1 out, or has to hit
|
9:09 |
: And obviously down 5
|
9:09 |
: So the answer was no, you don’t let Darvish face Springer again
|
9:09 |
: 4 runs in 1 2/3. Deja Vudu.
|
9:10 |
: They should be bringing in Josh Fields
|
9:10 |
: Don’t lie to me: are the Dodgers done?
|
9:10 |
: Remember Game 5?
|
9:10 |
: McCullers didn’t exactly look like nails in the 1st.
|
9:10 |
: How much does this cost Darvish in FA?
|
9:10 |
: Not that much.
|
9:10 |
: Dodgers are going to have to ride somebody too long or else they’re going to run out of position players or good relievers
|
9:10 |
: Now it’s going to be Alex Wood for several innings
|
9:11 |
: Deja Yu
|
9:11 |
: Anybody wanna bet the dodgers get 5 next inning now?
|
9:11 |
: This is either the greatest comeback in game 7 history or a dud.
|
9:11 |
: Can I change my answer to who I think is gonna win?
|
9:12 |
: “This is a move that will be questioned” – Jo Buck. Who the hell is going to question pulling Darvish?!
|
9:12 |
: He means going to Morrow
|
9:12 |
: I don’t think it’s a good move if the Dodgers burn their 2nd best reliever to get one out with nobody on base.
|
9:12 |
: Morrow probably wasn’t going to pitch a ton today either way.
|
9:12 |
: This game is not over… Save this message
|
9:13 |
: My arm feels weird.
|
9:13 |
: Why morrow and not someone else? If darvish had to come out before hit at bat, you knew runs scored, so why burn a good reliever when you know it’d be a bad spot?
|
9:13 |
: Plan was to use Morrow to kill a rally, or let Darvish get out of it.
|
9:13 |
: The HR was worst case scenario
|
9:13 |
: If Morrow wasn’t going to pitch much, he should’ve pitched to Springer!
|
9:13 |
: Reasonable argument. Also reasonable to think Darvish vs RHB is an okay match-up.
|
9:14 |
: It didn’t work, but he wasn’t getting torched by righties this game.
|
9:14 |
: Any chance Morrow hits if his spot comes up with the bases empty?
|
9:14 |
: No
|
9:14 |
: Maybe if there’s a bunt situation
|
9:14 |
: If the reasoning is that Darvish vs RHB is an okay match-up, he should have stayed in. 1 HR doesn’t change that fact
|
9:14 |
: Yeah, I don’t disagree with that.
|
9:15 |
: if Astros win now it’s easy MVP for Springer, right?
|
9:15 |
: Yup
|
9:15 |
: How many chatters are there now? 7?
|
9:15 |
: 1,100
|
9:15 |
: No joke
|
9:16 |
: They’re down by 5 – I don’t foresee a “bunt situation” anytime in the near future
|
9:16 |
: Guys on, pitcher bunts them over
|
9:16 |
: Don’t have to get all 5 back at once
|
9:16 |
: Kershaw warming, though
|
9:16 |
: So probably PH
|
9:16 |
: I’m gonna eat some cake. That’s my bundt situation
|
9:16 |
: Here’s the rally
|
9:17 |
: 02:16 a.m. in Germany. Afraid to go to bed and miss another Game 5.
|
9:17 |
: Would Kershaw/wood be the plan to get through the next few then?
|
9:17 |
: And Jansen
|
9:17 |
: no lie … McCullers doesnt really “have it” either
|
9:17 |
: Depends on the batter.
|
9:17 |
: He’s wild but some of the curves have been nasty.
|
9:18 |
: Hanger
|
9:18 |
: Barnes should have swung at that one
|
9:18 |
: The lefty curve has been devastating. The righty curve a lot less
|
9:18 |
: Bregman is better than you
|
9:18 |
: BREGMAN
|
9:18 |
: A must to chase McCullers soon?
|
9:19 |
: What a play
|
9:19 |
: Bregman can PLAY!
|
9:19 |
: Bregs is my new favorite non-bosox
|
9:19 |
: Now you have to pinch-hit.
|
9:19 |
: I don’t think anyone in the Dodgers dugout thinks this is over.
|
9:19 |
: Kike doesnt seem like the best PH here
|
9:20 |
: Kike has had some pinch hit homers and a 3 homer game recently
|
9:20 |
: Bench isn’t super deep, probably want to save Utley for later
|
9:20 |
: Hello! Please allow me to declare that I’m not late; it’s just, Cameron said I couldn’t join the chat until the leverage index dipped below 0.5.
|
9:21 |
: PHANTOM EDIT!
|
9:21 |
: Great intro for Carson
|
9:21 |
: I’d have someone warming in HOU’s pen.
|
9:21 |
: McCullers command is awful so far.
|
9:21 |
: technically a HBP
|
9:21 |
: They better score SOMETHING
|
9:22 |
: Morton is lurking, as well as Keuchel.
|
9:22 |
: Incoming double play
|
9:22 |
: If that’s a HBP, it ties the WS record for ANY game … He already had the Game 7 record.
|
9:22 |
: My feed is also, like, three minutes behind, so this is actually the most expedient way to learn what happens in the game.
|
9:22 |
: Rough
|
9:22 |
: BABIP’d
|
9:22 |
: LOL
|
9:22 |
: WOW
|
9:22 |
: Wow
|
9:22 |
: Oh, that’s just unlucky, feels like Astros night.
|
9:22 |
: Brutal!
|
9:23 |
: McCullers must have sold his soul
|
9:23 |
: well, there goes that
|
9:23 |
: Today is not LA’s day
|
9:23 |
: holy babip
|
9:23 |
: That was the worst thing
|
9:23 |
: Dodgers had chances. Blew twice
|
9:23 |
: This is continuing to prove that <insert higher power here> hates California
|
9:23 |
: Plays like that are exactly how WS are won.
|
9:23 |
: Dodgers can’t catch a break
|
9:23 |
: The suspense is delicious.
|
9:23 |
: 69% hit probability. DP. Inning over
|
9:24 |
: 2 scorched balls and nothing to show for it…
|
9:24 |
: I’m not publishing any of your *nice* comments
|
9:24 |
: Just FYI
|
9:24 |
: Fair enough.
|
9:24 |
: I don’t see any in the queue, anyway.
|
9:24 |
: That’s not very nice, Dave
|
9:24 |
: As for Zac’s comment, that sounds like the result of an illusion gone wrong.
|
9:24 |
: Again: Morrow for exactly one batter feels like a real error. Down 5-0 the Dodgers were going to need lucky breaks to get back in it. No point burning a pitcher and hitter before you’ve got at least one of those. Get some leverage back.
|
9:24 |
: Don’t disagree
|
9:24 |
: But don’t think they were counting on him for much tonight either way
|
9:25 |
: Carson: what was for dinner?
|
9:25 |
: 3 HBP, double, single in two innings. No runs. Sequencing sucks.
|
9:25 |
: A stew with some delicious Kennebec potatoes grown here in the back yard!
|
9:25 |
: And here’s Kershaw
|
9:26 |
: Carson Cistulli!
|
9:26 |
: Dodgers chance to win basically depends on him going 3-4 now.
|
9:26 |
: Is that you, Will, from high school? Or a different Will Graham?
|
9:26 |
: If he can get it to Jansen, they still have a shot
|
9:26 |
: Dodgers don’t have a chance to win, Dave
|
9:26 |
: Cy Young vs. MVP!
|
9:26 |
: I have a Maine Coon sitting on my lap at the moment. In case anyone, from Maine, cares
|
9:27 |
: So each team has 5 baserunners and the score is 5-0. SSS is such bullshit sometimes.
|
9:27 |
: I’m a fake Will Graham. Just an alias.
|
9:27 |
: Fair enough.
|
9:27 |
: two quick outs so far
|
9:28 |
: To be fair, one of the 5 ‘baserunners’ for Houston was a pretty deep bomb
|
9:28 |
: won’t they ph for him when his spot comes up in the 4th or 5th?
|
9:28 |
: Can’t really now.
|
9:28 |
: Burned two pitchers already.
|
9:28 |
: Hey, Dave, Clayton Kershaw is pitching.
|
9:28 |
: Obviously Kershaw should have started
|
9:29 |
: Easy to say that with hindsight, but Darvish is a top 15 MLB starter
|
9:29 |
: On full rest
|
9:29 |
: You didn’t know he was going to suck tonight
|
9:29 |
: Well that’s exactly what the Dodgers needed to make it a game
|
9:29 |
: Did you see his first start, Dave? Everyone knew he was going to suck tonight.
|
9:29 |
: No, you didn’t.
|
9:29 |
: Kershaw is good
|
9:29 |
: great pitch
|
9:30 |
: Gurriel has seen 19 pitches in two at bats. Who had that in the betting pool?
|
9:30 |
: I have a young kid and a job so I have missed a lot of innings this postseason. What exactly has been Giles undoing? Just missing spots? His velo is down a little but he had good numbers in August when his velo was the same. Interested to hear your diagnosis
|
9:30 |
: Hey, Cameron, can you help out this father of a young child?
|
9:30 |
: Darvish cost himself $XX million over the last week?
|
9:31 |
: Less than $10M. Teams don’t overrate recent performance the same way fans do.
|
9:31 |
: Having said that though, Darvish will get overpaid this offseason, right? I didnt think he was worth a huge contract even before his WS struggles
|
9:31 |
: Depends on how much people think signing Darvish helps you get Otani
|
9:32 |
: Hey, Carson, if you’re going to publish comments I have to answer, maybe tell me!
|
9:32 |
: (Giles just had terrible locations and got hit hard)
|
9:32 |
: Maybe I will.
|
9:33 |
: Giles looked visibly nervous on the mound in the postseason and admitted to being so. Good bet his struggles were related to controlling heart rate, etc. Lots of physiological reasons he might struggle even if the arm is fine.
|
9:33 |
: You can’t tell if a person is nervous on TV.
|
9:33 |
: He did tell you in the chat! I saw it
|
9:33 |
: I see Carson’s name next to a comment and scroll down
|
9:33 |
: They’re all nervous
|
9:33 |
: That was Lance’s change. 90 MPH
|
9:34 |
: ROPE
|
9:34 |
: Almost a big blunder by Seager
|
9:34 |
: Almost horrible
|
9:34 |
: McCullers is not getting it done except by the grace of god
|
9:34 |
: McCullers looks worse than Darvish, honestly
|
9:34 |
: Go get him
|
9:34 |
: 4 HBP
|
9:35 |
: WTF is wrong with McCullers??
|
9:35 |
: His command isn’t there
|
9:35 |
: Corey Seager looks worse than all of them in terms of running.
|
9:35 |
: Started warming up too early
|
9:35 |
: Cameron will NOT help out a father of a young child. Tragic.
|
9:35 |
: I assume this will lead to a line drive triple play
|
9:35 |
: 33% HBP rate, 100% strand rate
|
9:35 |
: Justin Turner – THROW ME A CURVE!!!
|
9:35 |
: a HR would be nice
|
9:35 |
: So how many guys can you hit before getting ejected in a WS game?
|
9:35 |
: Most HBP in a WS game
|
9:35 |
: He’s clearly not trying to hit anyone.
|
9:35 |
: baseball is terrifying
|
9:36 |
: Wait – is this because he didn’t establish the fastball?
|
9:36 |
: McCullers is establishing that he shouldn’t use his fastball.
|
9:36 |
: Bellinger…
|
9:36 |
: Don’t swing, Cody.
|
9:36 |
: DO NOT SWING!!!
|
9:36 |
: Bellinger should take until he has 2 strikes right
|
9:36 |
: Stop swinging Bellinger.
|
9:36 |
: It’s going to be breaking ball city. – Another John Smoltz hot take
|
9:36 |
: Belly is looking lost
|
9:36 |
: McCullers might not have his fastball command, but he’s really locating that breaking ball
|
9:37 |
: HE TOOK A CURVE
|
9:37 |
: Peacock not Keuchel?
|
9:37 |
: They probably want Keuchel to start a clean inning.
|
9:37 |
: Didn’t swing at two in a row!
|
9:37 |
: Missed it.
|
9:37 |
: Stop swinging
|
9:37 |
: Ugly
|
9:38 |
: Rough
|
9:38 |
: And that’s it
|
9:38 |
: Don’t want him to hit another right handed hitter.
|
9:38 |
: Good pull here Hinch
|
9:38 |
: That is a hole that Mr. Bellinger better plug.
|
9:39 |
: Most guys don’t have McCullers curve
|
9:39 |
: Good early hook here.
|
9:39 |
: I’d call it a slow hook
|
9:39 |
: bellinger has had a lot of ugly swings
|
9:39 |
: McCullers looked bad from the 1st
|
9:39 |
: We’re in the third inning. 80 minutes so far
|
9:39 |
: Way to pull the pitcher BEFORE he gives up a crushing home run
|
9:39 |
: Who HAS looked good in this game?
|
9:39 |
: George Springer
|
9:40 |
: Yeah, he did a good job in terms of hitting home runs.
|
9:40 |
: Kershaw, so far
|
9:40 |
: bregman
|
9:40 |
: Chris Taylor, too
|
9:40 |
: Somehow Brian McCann as a base runner
|
9:40 |
: Don Newcombe
|
9:40 |
: Bregman
|
9:40 |
: First WSG7 with both starters < 3 IP.
|
9:40 |
: Dave, I asked over/under 4.5 hrs earlier. You said under. Care to revise?
|
9:41 |
: Nah, still going under.
|
9:41 |
: I thought Carson lived in Wisconsin? Is he just touring all the coldest places in the lower 48?
|
9:41 |
: I don’t really buy the narrative that the sooner Houston goes to e bullpen the worse they are
|
9:42 |
: I haven’t been allowed to live there for a while, Raindog.
|
9:42 |
: Yeah, it’s wrong.
|
9:42 |
: Just missed it.
|
9:42 |
: Got my hopes up there for a second
|
9:42 |
: Puig almost your friend there
|
9:42 |
: Never been so frustrated watching a game before. Dodgers with MORE base runners than Houston and down 5-0. The entire city of Houston clearly sold its soul
|
9:42 |
: Awwww I thought that was crushed
|
9:42 |
: Puig almost looked good.
|
9:42 |
: I don’t buy a lot of what Smoltz says.
|
9:42 |
: Puig still your friend
|
9:42 |
: Not Dodgers’ day
|
9:43 |
: Pls make it a game Joc
|
9:44 |
: The baseball fan in me wants the Dodgers to tie it. The human in me wants the Astros to win it.
|
9:44 |
: joc is series mvp here if he hits an hr and the dodgers win, right?
|
9:44 |
: Probably
|
9:44 |
: Fortunately, both can happen, Alfrz.
|
9:44 |
: All the bullpens have been crushed this series so let’s start with the bullpens for both teams by the third inning. Hooray!
|
9:45 |
: It’d be difficult to argue that the starters have been much better.
|
9:45 |
: If your argument is that Darvish and McCullers should have been left in longer, you’re insane.
|
9:45 |
: Kershaw hardly counts as the bullpen
|
9:45 |
: Kersh isn’t the bullpen
|
9:46 |
: 6 pitches from peacock, 6 fastballs. where’s the slider?
|
9:46 |
: he hasn’t thrown it all series
|
9:46 |
: He probably won’t after seeing Darvish’s
|
9:47 |
: If Peacock gets out of this, his spot due up 4th next inning. Does he bat there if he gets there? And go longer? Or would this be it for him?
|
9:47 |
: Hinch won’t be PH aggressive with a 5 run lead
|
9:47 |
: There’s one
|
9:47 |
: Rough night for LA
|
9:47 |
: Dodgers missing a lot of opportunities
|
9:47 |
: 2 LOB per inning
|
9:47 |
: dodgers have established stranding runners
|
9:48 |
: Nothing like watching your team beat itself.
|
9:48 |
: “Hinch won’t be aggressive”–why is that rational, given that you still want to maximize runs scored? Just on the off chance that you go extra innings and will have burned a pitcher?
|
9:48 |
: One note about runners left on base: broadcasters frequently cite it as a “bad” stat, but it’s also important to note that teams with the highest LOB numbers are also getting the most runners on base, which correlates pretty strongly with scoring runs.
|
9:48 |
: With a lead, easier to talk yourself into managing to protect a lead rather than build a bigger one
|
9:49 |
: Dodgers have no business winning this game with the way Darvish pitched and their hitters have executed with men on base
|
9:49 |
: Establish the ball in the dirt.
|
9:49 |
: You were against the execution of two line drives right at people?
|
9:49 |
: “easier to talk yourself into”–totally agree, but do you think that’s rational?
|
9:49 |
: Nope
|
9:49 |
: I’ve been saying all postseason that managers should trust their depth arms
|
9:50 |
: Dave don’t ruin his narrative
|
9:50 |
: Don’t you have to weigh the cost of a single PA against the pulling the pitcher out? If Peacock can give 50 pitches, that’s another 2-3 innings of work, and that possibly does more to prevent runs over the value of a single PA.
|
9:50 |
: Yeah, Dave, stop ruining narratives.
|
9:50 |
: No, it doesn’t.
|
9:50 |
: The gap in expected run prevention between Peacock and someone like Harris or Devenski is small.
|
9:50 |
: Around the office, Dave just goes around to everyone’s desk and ruins their narratives.
|
9:50 |
: Not. Cool. Dave.
|
9:50 |
: The gap in expected runs scored between a pitcher and a hitter is huge.
|
9:51 |
: Dave “Narrative Ruiner” Cameron
|
9:51 |
: Dave hates motivational posters.
|
9:51 |
: whats a reasonable expectation for how long Kershaw can go? If hes on does he pitch straight till Jansen?
|
9:51 |
: Can you give a number for a single PA?
|
9:51 |
: Dave! I’m interested in the answer to Pat’s question.
|
9:51 |
: Dave.
|
9:51 |
: Dave?
|
9:51 |
: Answer it, Dave.
|
9:51 |
: Dave?
|
9:51 |
: You would need to have something like a true talent difference of 4 ERA points to offset the difference in hitting between a pitcher and a hitter.
|
9:51 |
: Dave!
|
9:51 |
: So a 4 ERA guy to an 8 ERA
|
9:52 |
: Are you there Dave?
|
9:52 |
: Pat, I’d say 4 innings max
|
9:52 |
: Also, Carson, you’re fired.
|
9:52 |
: I’ve been expecting that for eight years.
|
9:52 |
: Kershaw said he can go 27 innings tonight if need be. Think he’ll do it?
|
9:53 |
: Dave probably wishes Carson would go back and play with his potatoes.
|
9:53 |
: Dave visiting your cubicle: ‘a tightrope walker is a terrible image for perseverance. They are notoriously fickle people who refuse to work when it’s windy’
|
9:53 |
: Sorry, Dave. I don’t buy that a position player replacing a pitcher for one AB is worth the same as 4 more ERA over 3 innings.
|
9:53 |
: The Kennebec potato is one of the greats. I’d gladly spend more time with it.
|
9:53 |
: You don’t have to buy math.
|
9:53 |
: It exists with or without you.
|
9:54 |
: Not an easy play for Seager there
|
9:55 |
: 4 more ERA over 3 IP is 1.3 runs. How can a portion of one PA be worth 1.3 runs?
|
9:55 |
: Peacock isn’t throwing 3 more IP
|
9:55 |
: Mound vistit for Peacock with two outs?
|
9:56 |
: These Astros at-bats are just an impediment to the interesting part of this game.
|
9:57 |
: I dunno, I’m interested to see if George Springer hits another home run.
|
9:57 |
: I think there was also a more recent article that shows some of the calculations, but I can’t find it right now
|
9:58 |
: Carson “cancel the world series and play it in an excel spreadsheet” Cistulli
|
9:58 | : Also this post helps. |
9:58 |
: At least cancel the half-innings where the team with a five-run lead is batting.
|
9:58 |
: Yeah, I’ve written a similar post most years
|
9:58 |
: Seems like the run expectancy calculation would depend a lot on the game situation – a pinch hitter with 1 out and runners on 2nd and 3rd is a lot more valuable than a pinch hitter with 2 out and nobody on
|
9:59 |
: Of course
|
9:59 |
: Now that’s how you speed up the game. Are you winning? Well, you don’t get to hit next inning.
|
9:59 |
: Manfred? See this?
|
9:59 |
: It’s like reverse volleyball. I don’t know why, precisely, but that’s what my heart says.
|
9:59 |
: That would be so ridiculous lol
|
10:00 |
: What’s the behavioral economics term for why this is so hard to accept? Including for me. Anchoring? Attentional bias? Sheer weight of conventional wisdom?
|
10:00 |
: Risk aversion
|
10:00 |
: It seems super risky to take your P to build a bigger lead when you’re already winning
|
10:00 |
: Interested in Carson’s position now that it is open. Plus I have no narrative. Where do I send resume?
|
10:00 |
: You’re putting yourself in a worse spot if it doesn’t work
|
10:01 |
: Cameron, what about a rule change where the winning team isn’t allowed to bat in their half-inning?
|
10:01 |
: If you could save your outs it could make sense. You still need 27 outs to win, but change the order so those early leads with no offsensr from the other team would just speed on by
|
10:02 |
: Dave – why does Carson call you Cameron….it’s confusing me
|
10:02 |
: He’s a confusing dude.
|
10:02 |
: Seems like ever since Dave fired Carson, he’s just ignoring him. Which is good HR practice actually
|
10:02 |
: Second player putting in eyedrops
|
10:03 |
: I bet Sawchik is on this eyedrops story.
|
10:03 |
: Calling it now. Kershaw hits a bomb.
|
10:03 |
: Who’s the best hitting pitcher to play in a WS?
|
10:03 |
: Babe Ruth?
|
10:04 |
: Mike Hampton is probably the “real” answer, or MadBum
|
10:05 |
: Dontrelle?
|
10:05 |
: Aroldis Chapman hits people. Does that count?
|
10:05 |
: Rick Ankiel?
|
10:06 |
: Babe Ruth recorded a 189 wRC+ in 380 PA the same year (1918) he threw 166.1 innings.
|
10:06 |
: Ankiel never appeared in a WS.
|
10:06 |
: He was worth 5.2 WAR as a batter.
|
10:06 |
: Dave, having recently completed the part of PhD microeconomics that deals with risk aversion, I’d argue that it’s anchoring (tendency to prefer your first piece of information, and keeping the pitcher is always the default) than risk aversion, which would require quantifying why there is greater variance in payoffs under the situation where you pull the pitcher.
|
10:07 |
: But keeping the pitcher in is the default because of risk aversion, I think.
|
10:07 |
: Dave just let someone else be smart for once
|
10:07 |
: Do a poll! Risk Aversion v. Anchoring
|
10:08 |
Econ nerd poll
Risk Aversion (24.0% | 118 votes)
Anchoring (28.3% | 139 votes)
This poll is dumb (47.5% | 233 votes)
Total Votes: 490
|
10:08 |
: Can we talk more potatoes?
|
10:08 |
: EVERYONE VOTE ANCHORING
|
10:08 |
: Risk Anchoring
|
10:09 |
: It’s anchoring but I voted this poll is dumb
|
10:09 |
: Anchor aversion
|
10:09 |
: Voted risk aversion because it was the first piece of information I had.
|
10:09 |
: ~800 people in the chat you said? So about a third participate in polls?
|
10:09 |
: We’re pushing 1,200 now
|
10:09 |
: The poll isn’t dumb. Just the debate.
|
10:10 |
: Establish the anchor
|
10:11 |
: Smallest ball person ever.
|
10:11 |
: How did a ball get from the bullpen to the middle of the field?
|
10:11 |
: Here’s a great image of some Kennebec potatoes:
|
10:11 |
![]() |
10:11 |
: McCullers throwing?
|
10:11 |
: I wish I could share an image of how they taste.
|
10:11 |
: Maine puts out some good potatoes
|
10:12 |
: Yukon Gold > Kennebec
|
10:12 |
: Banned.
|
10:12 |
: 10 swings and misses for kersh
|
10:12 |
: Meanwhile, Kershaw is dealing
|
10:13 |
: Will this change the Kershaw narrative? No, it won’t
|
10:13 |
: Can we fire Carson again? Hannah is ineligible to be banned!
|
10:13 |
: Update: Kershaw still good
|
10:13 |
: Imagine if Kershaw was dealing and wasn’t down 5-0
|
10:13 |
: Kershaw only dealing because leverage index is low. #unclutch
|
10:13 |
: Over/under 50.5 hot takes saying Kershaw shouldve just started game 7 tomorrow?
|
10:13 |
: There are like 50 comments in the queue saying this
|
10:13 |
: So yeah
|
10:13 |
: Can’t ban Hannah until the beginning of next season.
|
10:14 |
: with Kershaw looking sharp, that’s the question Roberts will get – Why not start Kershaw if he was available for multiple innings?
|
10:14 |
: The answer is easy: “Yu Darvish is a good pitcher.”
|
10:14 |
: Should the Astros have benched Altuve? He’s been bad this series too.
|
10:15 |
: What are the consequences of the Kershaw narrative? For Kershaw, I mean. He won’t make less money because of it. The Dodgers clearly trust him still. He’s almost a Hall of Famer right now.
|
10:15 |
: I mean, they traded for Darvish for a reason…
|
10:15 |
: And kershaws on short rest pitching history isn’t exactly pristine. Such post hoc logic
|
10:16 |
: Feels like Dodgers have to do something this inning.
|
10:16 |
: You don’t think it bothers Kersh to hear it all the time?
|
10:16 |
: the argument isn’t that darvish’s been bad. The argument is from the Only Rule which is to just go in order of your best pitchers so that you can get the most out of them and the least possible out of the less good guys so just Kershaw Jansen then darvish and then whoever the hell else comes after that
|
10:16 |
: You have to factor rest into goodness
|
10:17 |
: I don’t *know*, of course, Hannah. I’d guess it probably just bothers him that he hasn’t pitched well in the postseason. Not that people *notice* he hasn’t pitched well.
|
10:17 |
: Also, you’re banned!
|
10:17 |
: Is it proven that pitchers are historically worse on short rest in the post-season?
|
10:17 |
: Yup.
|
10:18 |
: Carson, stop flirting with Hannah.
|
10:18 |
: Carson, start flirting with me
|
10:19 |
: Uh, that’s not what was posted on your site today
|
10:19 |
: Jeff’s post was about SPs pitching in relief on short rest
|
10:19 |
: Not about starting
|
10:19 |
: How much money can I make doing product placement of potato varieties in chatrooms?
|
10:20 |
: You don’t do it for money. You do it because you love the potato.
|
10:20 |
: As an actuary, I feel qualified to weigh in. I’d say risk aversion.
|
10:20 |
: You’re hired.
|
10:20 |
: Dave, that’s confirmation bias.
|
10:20 |
: Seager went
|
10:20 |
: Seager went
|
10:20 |
: Will we still see Keuchel?
|
10:21 |
: For sure.
|
10:21 |
: Time for Turner to get hit again.
|
10:21 |
: as an estuary, it’s clearly anchoring
|
10:21 |
: So wait – to get hired you just say you agree with the boss? That is NOT great HR practice
|
10:21 |
: As a meteorologist, I’d say wind resistance
|
10:21 |
: Seager went but whatever, let’s keep things interesting!
|
10:21 |
: Apparently the Kennebec has a “noticeably nutty” flavor.
|
10:21 |
: As a psychologist, I’d say your mother
|
10:21 |
: Hit Turner. Strike out bellinger. Easy.
|
10:21 |
: “Hella nutty,” is how I’d characterize it.
|
10:21 |
: As a mortuary, I’d say we’ve killed it now
|
10:22 |
: What will Yu’s next contract look like?
|
10:22 |
: Great to see more comments by Hannah. It’s not like there isn’t 1200 other people trying to get a question in.
|
10:22 |
: As a baseball announcer, I’d say what did the guy 30 years ago think about it
|
10:22 |
: It’ll be a bunch of paper, probably 8.5 x 11 inches.
|
10:22 |
: TIL about kennebec potatoes and risk aversion vs. anchoring. Fangraphs giving you that analysis that other baseball sites refuse to.
|
10:23 |
: Theres still half a game to go! Its 1030. Western teams should be banned from postseason…
|
10:23 |
: NOT LIRIANO
|
10:23 |
: Devinski and Liriano up
|
10:23 |
: Are too AFRAID to, AdamZ.
|
10:23 |
: As a news monster attorney in can definitely state that legal paper is longer than the 11″ used by peasants
|
10:23 |
: That’s not legal size
|
10:23 |
: this chat has gotten kinda shitty and twittery
|
10:23 |
: Peacock is missing by a lot
|
10:23 |
: Breaking, MJ: Darvish’s contract won’t be legal!
|
10:24 |
: You’ve preemptively cracked the case.
|
10:24 |
: “shitty and twittery” is redundant
|
10:24 |
: I, for one, am enjoying this chat
|
10:24 |
: No matter the rest of the Dodgers’ performance thus far, the organist has definitely shown up to play.
|
10:24 |
: This organist is killing it. Breaking out The Doors and The Who tonight.
|
10:24 |
: this is one long at bat
|
10:24 |
: It all went downhill once Carson got here
|
10:24 |
: Carson brings a delightful amount of levity
|
10:25 |
Carson made the chat
Better (68.3% | 285 votes)
Worse (31.6% | 132 votes)
Total Votes: 417
|
10:25 |
: can we talk about baseball…
|
10:25 |
: Carson is a polarizing figure, indeed!
|
10:25 |
: I voted no but I think yes
|
10:25 |
: Is that anchoring?
|
10:25 |
: Another rally
|
10:25 |
: Another chance for LA to squander it
|
10:25 |
: I love baseball
|
10:26 |
: How much longer does Peacock go?
|
10:26 |
: Wouldn’t think much longer
|
10:26 |
: BABIP!
|
10:26 |
: Finally a break for the Dodgers
|
10:26 |
: Finally one Bregman couldn’t handle!
|
10:26 |
: Not Bregman’s ball
|
10:26 |
: Liriano!
|
10:26 |
: Wait, seriously?
|
10:26 |
: Legit think Bellinger shouldn’t swing until there are two strikes
|
10:26 |
: Liriano’s command sucks
|
10:26 |
: I’m minutes behind. I contend you’re lying.
|
10:26 |
: LiriaNO
|
10:26 |
: Please hit a dinger.
|
10:27 |
: What’s a “strike?”
|
10:27 |
: Liriano coming in! Let’s get nuts
|
10:27 |
: smart pitching change or not?
|
10:27 |
: Yeah
|
10:27 |
: This is a better match-up for HOU than Peacock
|
10:27 |
: And Devenski’s CH probably a worse pitch to Bellinger than Liriano’s SL
|
10:27 |
: Liriano faces Bellinger then Devinksi for Puig.
|
10:27 |
: Probably
|
10:27 |
: So this was the Houston plan going into the WS right? Have Liriano never be a factor until the biggest game of the franchise’s life. A classic rope-a-dope
|
10:28 |
: Liriano coming in with those stats. Meanwhile, Ken Giles is reduced to fetching sunflower seeds for his mates. Sad.
|
10:28 |
: Bellinger. Can you imagine the stress on his mind. He has blown several big at bats later. And when you’re going bad … the big at bats always seem to find you.
|
10:28 |
: Would it be possible to play the Fangraphs Audio hold music during commercial breaks?
|
10:29 |
: Just don’t swing, just don’t swing!!!
|
10:29 |
: Bellinger’s redemption arc on the line here
|
10:29 |
: Of course he pumps one down the middle
|
10:29 |
: lol painted strike
|
10:30 |
: That might have been the pitch to swing at
|
10:30 |
: That was a strike I think.
|
10:30 |
: Liriano establishes his fastball.
|
10:30 |
: This replay is making me more incredulous Bellinger swung at all of those McCullers pitches
|
10:31 |
: If the pitcher has a normal split and the hitter has a reverse split, what carries the day? (Same question, but if you reverse it.)
|
10:31 |
: It’s a combination
|
10:31 |
: well that’s not a strikeout
|
10:31 |
: Well. I guess he didnt strike out….right?
|
10:31 |
: middle middle fastball…
|
10:31 |
: Do you have any faith in the dodgers if they don’t score this inning?
|
10:31 |
: They are running out of chances
|
10:31 |
: liriaYES
|
10:32 |
: So he’s going to go Morton for the 6th and 7th, Keuchel for 8 and 9?
|
10:32 |
: Something like that
|
10:32 |
: With Verlander possible late
|
10:32 |
: Isn’t Puig a strong negative splits guy? Is pulling Liriano the right move? I know Devenski is better in a vacuum.
|
10:33 |
: Reverse splits for a hitter aren’t real.
|
10:33 |
: Why are they real for a pitcher but not hitter
|
10:33 |
: Pitchers can throw certain pitches which work better against different hitters.
|
10:34 |
: What’s the biggest game 7 comeback?
|
10:34 |
: Reverse splits aren’t real, or reverse splits over one season aren’t real? Because there’s a couple guys out there with long term reverse splits
|
10:34 |
: Not really.
|
10:34 |
: Ichiro has a small reverse platoon split, I think
|
10:35 |
: But no one really sustains it over a career
|
10:35 |
: Seems aggressive to assert its not possible for a hitter to see and react to same hand pitching more effectively than opposite handed pitching. There are a lot of hitter in the world.
|
10:35 |
: The data is clear.
|
10:35 |
: Missed a cookie
|
10:35 |
: Just missed that one
|
10:35 |
: That was a hittable pitch
|
10:35 |
: Devenski falls off like 7 feet towards 1b
|
10:36 |
: I used to get really mad at Dave for saying reverse splits aren’t real and I always brought up Justin Turner vs. righties as my argument. Then he had this year against lefties and now I respectfully agree with Dave
|
10:36 |
: And he also has one of the league’s best changeups, JT. Correlation? Causation? I don’t know.
|
10:36 |
: Ichiro has like a 90 wrc+ against rhp and a 120wrc+ against lhp
|
10:36 |
: 115/98, actually
|
10:36 |
: But he’s basically it
|
10:37 |
: And he’s super weird
|
10:37 |
: Puig is amped
|
10:37 |
: puig is gonna destroy the dugout if he makes out
|
10:38 |
: Don’t throw him anymore FB
|
10:38 |
: Two fastballs down the pipe. Puig is going wild.
|
10:38 |
: Puig’s body language is so fun
|
10:38 |
: If Puig fouls another one off, he might just have an aneurysm.
|
10:38 |
: Hey, look, runners stranded.
|
10:38 |
: BABIP!
|
10:38 |
: I remember The Book having a great chapter on platoon splits. I think the argument there was that you regress all platoon splits heavily to the mean, such that you’d need like a 40 or 50 point difference over the course of a long career in order to conclude that a guy had any reverse split at all, and even then, it would be small.
|
10:38 |
: rope!
|
10:38 |
: Freaking BABIP
|
10:38 |
: RIP Dodgers
|
10:38 |
: Puig has gotta be so mad
|
10:38 |
: Babip is a cruel mistress
|
10:39 |
: Dodgers need to stop hitting liners!!!
|
10:39 |
: Not BABIP. 9% hit probability
|
10:39 |
: That was weak contact, though.
|
10:39 |
: That wasnt a rope. It was 55 MPH off the bat with only a 9% HP
|
10:39 |
: Very weak contact!
|
10:39 |
: In which the Dodgers again take 15 minutes to score 0 runs.
|
10:40 |
: Ah baseball. The sport where you do everything right and still fail.
|
10:40 |
: That was the softest hit ball of the gamel
|
10:41 |
: If neither team scores the rest of the game, is the focus on Darvish blowing it early or the fact that the Dodgers offense was ice cold?
|
10:41 |
: Can we only focus on one thing?
|
10:41 |
: I’m fine. (I’m not fine.)
|
10:41 |
: can we all agree on a narrative now…so I know which narrative to make fun of tomorrow!?
|
10:42 |
: Pls someone refresh me on exactly what “The Book” is
|
10:42 |
: That’s the one by Tom Tango (or Tango Tiger) and Mitchel Lichtman.
|
10:42 |
: And Andy Dolphin
|
10:42 |
: About some pretty basic principles in analytics.
|
10:42 |
: Who is somehow not the guy who was using a fake name
|
10:42 |
: Right, and Andy Dolphine.
|
10:43 |
: I mean Dolphin.
|
10:43 |
: That was more likely to be 55 mph than Puig’s
|
10:43 |
: Cameron, would you say that Andy Dolphin’s writing is porpoise-driven?
|
10:43 |
: Seager’ defense this series has made it clear to me why people think he’ll be a 3B soon.
|
10:44 |
: Keep in mind he didn’t play in the LCS because his back hurt.
|
10:44 |
: He’s not 100%
|
10:44 |
: He’s been like a plus 35 run defender over the past two years.
|
10:45 |
: Who is this Tom Tango guy?He must be in the analytcis community, but i never see him publish any articles on sabermetric inclined websites.(I have only been following sabermetrics for like 3 years)
|
10:45 |
: He works for MLB now
|
10:45 |
: Cameron, you didn’t answer Cistulli’s question?
|
10:45 |
: You’re welcome.
|
10:46 |
: Brian McCann is slow
|
10:46 |
: Nice play by Forsyth.
|
10:46 |
: Man, McCann sooooo slow
|
10:46 |
: jesus he is slow
|
10:46 |
: That’s exactly why Forsythe starts
|
10:46 | : Here’s good stats talk from Tango if you desire @Al |
10:47 |
: If the 9 spot comes up, do you let Devo hit?
|
10:47 |
: No way
|
10:47 |
That’s called Clutch Hitting.
Lance McCullers is the first pitcher in baseball history to hit at least four batters and not allow a run
|
10:47 |
: I think, “Wow, nice play by Forsythe,” is a polite way of saying, “Oh my, that professional baseball runner is slow.”
|
10:48 |
: 2 IBBs
|
10:48 |
: Don’t love that
|
10:48 |
: Even if you get out of this, just got back to the top of the order sooner
|
10:48 |
: I am confused.
|
10:48 |
: What is Roberts doing…?
|
10:48 |
: Trying to get out of this inning
|
10:49 |
: Here to admit: I was wrong about putting up a stink about the IBB rule change. It’s gone and I don’t miss it
|
10:49 |
: is it smart though?
|
10:49 |
: I’m not a fan.
|
10:49 |
: Trying to remove Devenski.
|
10:49 |
: Nah.
|
10:49 |
: That was about getting a weaker hitter up there
|
10:49 |
: Gonzalez sucks from the left side.
|
10:50 |
: Probably didn’t think they’d hit for Reddick
|
10:50 |
: Hinch is out of “good” relievers. This is Keuchel/JV all the way now right?
|
10:50 |
: Morton
|
10:50 |
: Is there a reason none of my posts are being approved by the moderator? Do they only let some posts through?
|
10:50 |
: There are 1,100 people in here. We can’t approve everything.
|
10:51 |
: I need to walk my dog. Trying to decide if I want to watch the Dodgers strand 3 more runners, or the Astros top of the order
|
10:52 |
: Astros ABs are meaningless now! Or close to meaningless! Walk that dog.
|
10:52 |
: I walked my dog during Dodgers AB in 3rd
|
10:52 |
: Ask the dog
|
10:52 |
: get a doggie treadmill
|
10:53 |
: More runners
|
10:53 |
: Excited to see how Pederson doesn’t score
|
10:53 |
: Bloop hits are dumb.
|
10:53 |
: If Morton gets into serious trouble here, who relieves him?
|
10:53 |
: Guessing he has a long leash
|
10:53 |
: But probably Keuchel
|
10:54 |
: Harris?
|
10:54 |
: No way Kershaw is allowed to hit this inning, right?
|
10:54 |
: He shouldn’t be
|
10:54 |
: Jansen up
|
10:54 |
: Long leash solves the dog issue too
|
10:54 |
: 97 with siiiink.
|
10:54 |
: Let Kershaw bat right? Jansen cant go three can he?
|
10:55 |
: Still have Wood
|
10:55 |
: Plus the other relievers
|
10:55 |
: If the Dodgers are gonna come back, how will they do it?
|
10:55 |
: Homers
|
10:55 |
: Gotta go Jansen with top of the order coming up
|
10:55 |
: Yep
|
10:56 |
: jayson stark just pointed out on twitter houston could use literally and exclusively their entire five man rotation to clear this game, which would be a thing
|
10:56 |
: I pointed that out on FG today.
|
10:56 |
: Jansen gonna be gassed from going 2 IP yesterday (albeit quick ones)?
|
10:56 |
: Only need him to go 4 batters
|
10:56 |
: Then you can go to Wood, Watson, Cingrani, whoever
|
10:57 |
: Whew
|
10:57 |
: That was borderline
|
10:57 |
: think it was a strike.
|
10:57 |
: That was a strike.
|
10:57 |
: That pitch looked good to me
|
10:57 |
: That’s been a strike all game
|
10:57 |
: That looked like a strike
|
10:57 |
: It was a strike
|
10:57 |
: Outside.
|
10:57 |
: That’s a strike
|
10:57 |
: Another strike.
|
10:57 |
: That was a ball
|
10:57 |
: ball
|
10:57 |
: That was a ball
|
10:57 |
: I’d PH Grandal here
|
10:58 |
: Travis Sawchik noted earlier today that borderline calls might be a weakness for Astros pitchers:
|
10:58 |
: What say you Dave – ball or strike!
|
10:59 |
: I thought it looked a little outside but hard to tell from TV angle
|
10:59 |
: And it was very close
|
10:59 |
: Gameday had it clearly inside both borders.
|
10:59 |
: ok, *That* was a strike
|
10:59 |
: That was a strike
|
10:59 |
: Another close one.
|
10:59 |
: Morton can’t buy a strike
|
10:59 |
: Was that a strike??!!
|
10:59 |
: STRIKE THREE!!!
|
10:59 |
: That was strike 3
|
10:59 |
: Another strike.
|
10:59 |
: WOW
|
10:59 |
: THAT was a strike
|
10:59 |
: That was a strike
|
11:00 |
: Time to strand some runners
|
11:00 |
: Not Utley?
|
11:00 |
: They’re not that different at this point
|
11:00 |
: Ethier HR!
|
11:00 |
: Although BA doesn’t matter 0-29 is just not good
|
11:00 |
: THAT was a popout
|
11:00 |
: and THAT was an out
|
11:01 |
: Morton just challenging him
|
11:01 |
: A hit!
|
11:01 |
: FINALLY
|
11:01 |
: oh finally
|
11:01 |
: A run!
|
11:01 |
: omg, that’s a break.
|
11:01 |
: Andre the Giant
|
11:01 |
: Dre Day!
|
11:01 |
: A run!
|
11:01 |
: GET HYPED
|
11:01 |
: WOWOWOWOW
|
11:02 |
: Finally some BABIP luck.
|
11:02 |
: Oh boy!
|
11:02 |
: we have a game
|
11:02 |
: BABIP tables have turned
|
11:02 |
: Hit with RISP YAY!
|
11:02 |
: ANDRE ETHIER I ALWAYS BELIVED
|
11:02 |
: The Dodgers are allowed to do that?
|
11:02 |
: now that’s getting babip’d
|
11:02 |
: MOUND VISIT TIME!!!!!
|
11:02 |
: GET OUT THERE BRIAN!!!!!!
|
11:02 |
: Chris Taylor has been mashing tonight too
|
11:02 |
: 22% HP
|
11:02 |
: A HR from Taylor here would be extremely beneficial to the Dodgers’ cause.
|
11:03 |
: action! action! action!
|
11:03 |
: Was wondering where that curve went.
|
11:03 |
: Oh, terrible swing.
|
11:03 |
: Damnit, I was THISCLOSE to going to bed….
|
11:03 |
: That was a really, really good pitch.
|
11:03 |
: That was….an awful swing
|
11:03 |
: How do you not have ANYONE warming up right now AJ?!?!?!
|
11:03 |
: Yeah, that’s weird
|
11:04 |
: Morton’s stuff
|
11:04 |
: Goodness
|
11:04 |
: That was absolutely filthy
|
11:04 |
: Movement alert
|
11:04 |
: With movement?
|
11:04 |
: “Nasty”
|
11:04 |
: In Morton we trust.
|
11:04 |
: “I just throw harder”
|
11:04 |
: was that 2 righty/righty changeups?
|
11:04 |
: AJ is ride or die right now
|
11:04 |
: I cannot believe Charlie Morton is this good
|
11:04 |
: After reading the FG interviews on Morton…love the guy.
|
11:04 |
: I established the shit out of that
|
11:04 |
: Remember when Charlie Morton kinda sucked fornthe Piratea?
|
11:05 |
: That’s Charlie Morton?
|
11:05 |
: More stranded runners!
|
11:05 |
: Oh Jesus
|
11:05 |
: Lookout Chuck
|
11:05 |
: That was weird.
|
11:05 |
: Well that was strange
|
11:05 |
: 1 run not nearly enough there
|
11:05 |
: double-digit LOB
|
11:05 |
: Can someone paste link to live in game probability
|
11:06 |
: Here comes Jansen
|
11:06 |
: Chris Taylor vs. Charlie Morton in one of the highest-leverage plate appearances of the season, just as everyone expected in March
|
11:06 |
: Morton actually pitched really well that inning. Two soft hits and a borderline walk.
|
11:06 |
: Can someone paste a link to live hit probabilities?
|
11:07 |
: Can someone paste a link to their social security numbers and their address and other personal info, definitely?
|
11:07 |
: Equifax.com
|
11:07 |
: Thanks.
|
11:08 |
: ^TOPICAL SHADE FROM DAVE
|
11:08 |
: Did you freeze your account or whatever, Cameron?
|
11:08 | : Here’s WE for the whole series before someone ask for it Dave |
11:08 |
: Carson’s social security number is probably a dumb poem or something
|
11:09 |
: that was Andre Ethier’s last AB as a Dodger btw
|
11:09 | : here is link to a potato image before someone asks Carson. |
11:10 |
: Dave, there’s an important angle to this game no one is discussing. If I’m cash-poor but have good equity in my house with a low-interest 15-year mortgage, should I refinance or take a HELOC to cover my emergency home repairs?
|
11:10 |
: Jansen gets 2 innings if he doesnt have to bat?
|
11:10 |
: Probably
|
11:10 |
: What a catch.
|
11:10 |
: Pretty play
|
11:10 |
: How to make a routine play look hard
|
11:10 |
: Dude
|
11:10 |
: That ball stayed up forever
|
11:10 |
: Nice play, too much hang time
|
11:11 |
: Anonymous is very cynical.
|
11:11 |
: 23% hit probability
|
11:11 |
: It was a tough play because he was playing in center right.
|
11:12 |
: Kenley’s velo is way down
|
11:12 |
: The homemade broth for my chicken noodle soup isn’t strong enough. Any suggestions?
|
11:12 |
: Vodka
|
11:12 |
: Why not start Jens
|
11:13 |
: Is Jansen intentionally throwing 92 mph cutters or is his velo down?
|
11:13 |
: He’s sat 93 this year.
|
11:13 |
: So this isnt’ that down
|
11:13 |
: You don’t drink,Dave
|
11:13 |
: I’m not having his soup
|
11:14 |
: Dave doesn’t drink, he eats “soup”
|
11:14 |
: The alcohol would cook out anyway.
|
11:14 |
: He didn’t say he was going to cook it
|
11:14 |
: The alcohol will burn off anyway, so it will end up just being water.
|
11:14 |
: You are ruining the joke
|
11:15 |
: I’m gonna go pour myself a stiff glass of soup
|
11:15 |
: Mmmm cold broth.
|
11:15 |
: I believe Carson’s answer is to put a Maine potato in there
|
11:15 |
: Dave even defends his bad jokes to the end…
|
11:15 |
: Yeah, just go ahead and place a Kennebec potato into it.
|
11:16 |
: Carson’s the guy who doesn’t like baseball, right?
|
11:16 |
: Dave’s answer is to let the potato ferment first, then put it in
|
11:16 |
: The potato would absorb salt and weaken the broth.
|
11:16 |
: I love that my actual useful advise did not pass moderation
|
11:17 |
: I like baseball. I have less interest in watching the at-bats of a club winning 5-1.
|
11:17 |
: So who closes the game since pea cock is gone? Maybe their actual closer Giles?
|
11:17 |
: Keuchel or Verlander
|
11:17 |
: Or Morton if he keeps throwing 99 with movement
|
11:17 |
: I think Morton’s best bet right now.
|
11:17 |
: Whee! Baseball things happening!
|
11:18 |
: Do we get more tacos?
|
11:18 |
: HUGE jump
|
11:18 |
: This should be Jansen’s last batter
|
11:18 |
: That was center-center
|
11:18 |
: Yeah
|
11:18 |
: Lucky that went foul.
|
11:19 |
: Good pitch.
|
11:19 |
: Bringing this full circle, if you use too much Morton’s, a Kennebec Potato would save your soup/broth!
|
11:19 |
: I’m a very sad Dodger fan. What’s our silver lining to this cloud?
|
11:20 |
: You had a great year, you’ll be good again next year, and probably the year after that.
|
11:20 |
: I’d say the silver lining is the Astros have a spent bullpen which can give up 4 runs.
|
11:20 |
: I honestly feel like Charlie freaking Morton is my favorite pitcher you watch. Doesn’t feel natural to have a fastball move that much at 98 MPH
|
11:21 |
: Naked egg taco!!!!! can I get that for free if I steal it?
|
11:21 |
: You can get anything for free if you steal it
|
11:22 |
: Britton is still the most amazing pitcher to watch as far as movement/velo goes.
|
11:22 |
: Indians were only down one more run at this point last year and tied it.
|
11:22 |
: They lost though…
|
11:23 |
: We just want the graph to look more zigzag-y
|
11:23 |
: Give us your uninformed 2018 WS picks?
|
11:23 |
: Yankees-Dodgers
|
11:23 |
: Peak Ubaldo Jimenez was bonkers for movement/velo. At Coors to boot.
|
11:23 |
: Dodgers have 10 LOB – WS record is 15. I think we can get there
|
11:24 |
: Padres-White Sox. Hey, you said uninformed.
|
11:24 |
: If NYY cut payroll to start the season, but take contracts at the deadline, will the new lux tax hit them the same?
|
11:24 |
: Yes
|
11:24 |
: The luxury tax calc is done after the season
|
11:24 |
: And accounts for in-year moves
|
11:24 |
: Aaron Sanchez has the velo/movement thing going too. And the blister thing.
|
11:25 |
: Why Morton again? Why not go to Keuchel or Harris?
|
11:25 |
: Those guys don’t throw 99?
|
11:25 |
: That was in his kitchen!
|
11:25 |
: No reason to not leave Morton in, given how he’s chucking it
|
11:25 |
: Morton is dealing 97-98 and he has a curve ball, which seems to be the bane of the young LA lefties.
|
11:26 |
: Keuchel is warming up in the bullpen
|
11:26 |
: only 8 outs left for the dodgers — tick, tick, tick
|
11:26 |
: Ignore the results of the 6th, Morton’s stuff (not necessarily his command) has been electric today
|
11:26 |
: Down and in curve to Bellinger
|
11:26 |
: Drink
|
11:26 |
: I believe they know where to pitch Bellinger…
|
11:26 |
: Bellinger might want to try batting righty.
|
11:26 |
: Straight yakkers
|
11:26 |
: Jesus he can’t stop himself
|
11:26 |
: down and in curve to bellinger — lather, rinse, repeat
|
11:26 |
: DIRTY
|
11:26 |
: So sick.
|
11:26 |
: Why bring someone else in? Morton is filthy
|
11:26 |
: FILTH ALERT
|
11:27 |
: Backdoor slider wow! got me thrown off
|
11:27 |
: what the hell was that pitch? Looked crazy
|
11:27 |
: Wow, Charlie morton
|
11:27 |
: Beautiful!
|
11:27 |
: SO nasty!
|
11:27 |
: Christ he’s good
|
11:27 |
: Shouldn’t they just ride Morton Dave?
|
11:27 |
: I would leave him out there for now, yeah.
|
11:27 |
: But have Keuchel warm
|
11:28 |
![]() |
11:28 |
: Thomas Diamond?
|
11:28 |
: Think jansen comes out?
|
11:28 |
: No
|
11:28 |
: How did Morton turn into this? All I remember from Pittsburgh was a generic back of the rotation starter with a bad Roy Halladay impression.
|
11:29 |
: It’s a great magazine story waiting to be told
|
11:29 |
: Don’t lie to me: how much hope is there that the Dodgers win?
|
11:29 |
: 10%?
|
11:29 |
: 2.9%
|
11:29 |
: I eyeballed too high
|
11:29 |
: If Morton pitches out, any chance he is your MVP? Two wins and no way they win this series without him.
|
11:29 |
: Springer
|
11:30 |
: Has to be Springer
|
11:30 |
: Springer Springer Springer
|
11:30 |
: Yea, Astros don’t get to 6 without Springer
|
11:30 |
: You still PH for Morton if he comes up this inning, right?
|
11:30 |
: Yes
|
11:30 |
: If Morton comes up this inning, HOU has something going already.
|
11:31 |
: Wood for Jansen seems.. not optional
|
11:32 |
: Jansen didn’t have much last inning
|
11:32 |
: Hey, dummies. I have to go. (Toddler, Eastern Time.) Lot of fun discussing everyone’s favorite potato, the Kennebec.
|
11:33 |
: I’m so excited that I’m about 2 innings away from not seeing tv commercials until next season.
|
11:33 |
: Bye Carson. Russets forever
|
11:33 |
: Yay, we can talk about ball again!
|
11:33 |
: its game 7 and roberts has lost this thing for the dodgers
|
11:33 |
: You think Roberts went 1 for 50 with RISP?
|
11:33 |
: Let Brian explain, please. I really want to know how he thinks that
|
11:34 |
: Did Roberts throw all those nasty curveball?
|
11:34 |
: Roberts heard that leaving a lot of men on base correlates with winning
|
11:35 |
: Yea, I dunno how anyone can take anything away from how well I pitched today
|
11:35 |
: Perhaps it’s pint #4, but I’m confused on the progression of Dodgers pitchers? Am I alone?
|
11:36 |
: What part confuses you? Went to Kershaw for 4, PH for him, Jansen against the tough RHBs, now Wood against weak part of the order
|
11:36 |
: MORTON with a bat
|
11:36 |
: Morton on deck!
|
11:36 |
: This is a classic “it only takes one pitcher to have a bad day” game
|
11:37 |
: You have to let Morton finish this. He has been dominant
|
11:37 |
: Verlander was dominant yesterday, until he blew the lead
|
11:37 |
: You don’t have to do anything
|
11:37 |
: So why didn’t Roberts IBB Marwin to force Morton to bat?
|
11:38 |
: Keuchel doesn’t suck
|
11:38 |
: Getting Morton out not really all that helpful
|
11:38 |
: I agree with leaving Morton in. You know he has his stuff today. You don’t know if Keuchel or Verlander have theirs.
|
11:38 |
: You know Morton *had* his stuff. You don’t know what he’ll have next inning.
|
11:39 |
: Walking to get to Morton could get him out of the game, but it gets the lineup turned for the next inning, versus an almost guaranteed out to start the inning (even with pinch hitter effect)
|
11:40 |
: I agree with Morton over Verlander – he has pitched multiple innings, Verlander has never pitched the day after throwing 6 innings.
|
11:40 |
: Who is arguing for Verlander?
|
11:40 |
: Still nasty.
|
11:41 |
: And that swing lol
|
11:41 |
: That curve.
|
11:41 |
: nottt the best start to the inning going down 0-2
|
11:41 |
: Baseball fans just can’t get their minds around the idea of that pitcher performance is basically independent from inning to inning, unless a physical or mental problem is causing it
|
11:41 |
: When do you pull Morton, if at all? When someone reaches?
|
11:42 |
: I’m not letting him hit next inning
|
11:42 |
: So he’s coming out after this inning, for me.
|
11:42 |
: You guys seriously dont believe that sometimes a guy just has it?
|
11:42 |
: I know, we’re just jerks with our “data” and “evidence”
|
11:43 |
: No, but, there is something to be said for a baseball team’s psychological condition … sometimes when someone is nasty, that defeated feeling for the hitters can carry into their next at bat the next inning
|
11:43 |
: Prove it
|
11:43 |
: Keuchel the call then, Dave?
|
11:44 |
: Yeah, he’s who I would use.
|
11:44 |
..to take out your starter early who was pitching a brilliant game, as opposed to one who allowed a few runs or so…. twitter.com/i/web/status/9…
|
11:45 |
: Its likely not possible to prove. But, playing baseball at a high level and having family members that play professionally and friends professionally and in the big leagues … leads to the statement … “there is something to be said” … there is just a “feeling” to some games vs. some pitchers on some days.
|
11:46 |
: Baseball was run that way for a long time.
|
11:46 |
: Now it’s run by data and evidence.
|
11:46 |
: Sorry.
|
11:46 |
: pinch hitting for Morton is the right call statistically, but the Astros are in the enviably position that either one is probably okay here
|
11:46 |
: Is it a terrible idea to run Morton for one more, or just not the best option?
|
11:46 |
: It’s sub-optimal.
|
11:47 |
: Up 4 with 3 outs to go, you’ll almost always win anyway.
|
11:47 |
: Keuchel is better than Morton.
|
11:48 |
: There’s also that.
|
11:48 |
: He’s batting
|
11:49 |
: Verlander warming but not Keuchel is silly.
|
11:49 |
: If Morton gets in trouble, you’re going to the guy on 0 days rest…
|
11:49 |
: I agree. This should be Morton or Keuchel
|
11:49 |
: Keuchel over Verlander…anything else is heart not head
|
11:50 |
: Keuchel was warming last inning, though. Maybe he’s just warm? How long should he be throwing?
|
11:50 |
: Usually they still stand there when they’re warm
|
11:50 |
: If they’re considered an option
|
11:50 |
: Ump’s plane taking off soon
|
11:50 |
: Terrible call
|
11:50 |
: wow that’s a dubious call
|
11:50 |
: Ump wants to go home
|
11:50 |
: NOT NOW TMOBILE
|
11:51 |
: Morton batting, Verlander warming up, we are well into too cute by half territory. Thankfully for Hinch it probably doesn’t matter
|
11:51 |
: Here we go.
|
11:51 |
: I DONT WANT THE SEASON TO END
|
11:51 |
: welp, this is it kids
|
11:52 |
: Nice work by wood
|
11:52 |
: get hype
|
11:53 |
: Cubs are still WS Champs. Allow me to drink it in for the next 15 minutes or so…
|
11:53 |
: Rajai Davis we need you
|
11:53 |
: TIME TO END, SEASON
|
11:53 |
: At least make it interesting Dodgers…
|
11:53 |
: Someone call Luis Gonzalez
|
11:53 |
: I want it to end with Springer robbing a homer.
|
11:53 |
: , Grandal walk, Taylor single, seagar single, Cody sac fly, puig walk, joc homer=ws champs
|
11:54 |
: Robbing a game tying grand slam!
|
11:54 |
: walk off gurriel error pls
|
11:54 |
: Let’s break us a cover curse
|
11:55 |
: Roberts has lost all faith in Grandal.
|
11:55 |
: Well also need him around in case Barnes gets hurt
|
11:56 |
: filth
|
11:56 |
: Again so nasty!
|
11:56 |
: inside curve, AGAIN
|
11:56 |
: Wow Jesus Morton
|
11:56 |
: 2 MORE
|
11:56 |
: Haha, having the whole save vs win stupid conversation.
|
11:57 |
: Morton’s signing was almost universally panned as questionable
|
11:57 |
: (including by me)
|
11:57 |
: Not Jeff!
|
11:57 |
: Gotta be honest, if this is it, this was a pretty disappointing Game 7 given how the series has gone. Arguably the worst game of the series
|
11:57 |
: Not really arguable
|
11:57 |
: Taylor whiffs at about the middle-middlest pitch you can imagine
|
11:58 |
: Morton still shoving in the 9th
|
11:58 |
: well as an astros fan it’s been a lot easier on my psyche than the others
|
11:58 |
: ONE
|
11:58 |
: 1 MORE!!!
|
11:58 |
: The series was still nuts. Two games with 5 .25 WPA swings!
|
11:58 |
: LETS GO
|
11:58 |
: what do we think, low/inside breaking pitches? Nah.
|
11:59 |
: Congrats, Houston!
|
11:59 |
: Hell of a year.
|
11:59 |
: WOOHOO
|
11:59 |
: OVER!!!!!!!!!!!
|
11:59 |
: They deserve it!
|
11:59 |
: Great series, tip of the cap to both teams. Loved being here for all of it.
|
11:59 |
: YES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
|
11:59 |
: Woooooooooo
|
11:59 |
: Well good for them
|
11:59 |
: Happy for Charlie Morton!
|
11:59 |
: YEEESSSSSS
|
11:59 |
: i can’t believe it, i’m actually tearing up a little
|
11:59 |
: Beltran has his ring!
|
11:59 |
: Awesome for Morton
|
11:59 |
: That was fun!
|
11:59 |
: This game will break your heart.
|
12:00 |
: Verlander has a ring!
|
12:00 |
: The Houston Astros are World Series Champions!!!
|
12:00 |
: 148 days til pitchers and catchers
|
12:00 |
: Alright, it’s midnight eastern
|
12:00 |
: And this postseason has been both exhilarating and exhausting.
|
12:00 |
: Thanks for hanging out everyone.
|
12:01 |
: Congrats to both teams on great seasons.
|
12:01 |
: Cleveland too.
|
12:01 |
: We had lots of championship-caliber teams this year.
|
12:01 |
: 2017 was a pretty good year.
|
12:01 |
: Let’s do it again next year.
|
12:01 |
: Maybe with fewer dingers though.
|
12:01 |
: See you on Opening Day for our next live blog!
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Some of you are probably curious about how I got shirtless. Even if you’re not, here’s how it happened.
Back when I was a young guy playing winter ball, I was getting tired of striking out with the ladies whenever we went out after a game. Most of the Caribbean girls didn’t know any ball players except for the really famous ones like George Brett. Anyway, Bronson Arroyo was my team mate one year and I saw how good he was with a guitar. Chicks dig the guitar even if they don’t dig the long ball, so I got a great idea. Me and my wing man Bruce Chen asked Bronson if we could start a band as something to do when we weren’t pitching. He went along with it and we started playing and even got to play a few clubs, using fake names.
Anyway, I was still having no luck until somebody pointed out how bad I was sweating up the armpits of my shirt. That was grossing the girls out. The clubs were always hot, and I put a lot of effort into my singing and stage presence, so I didn’t know what to do about it. Then I saw one of the drunk guys in the front row take his shirt off, and I knew what I had to do. From now on, we’d play our shows shirtless.
And from that point, I’d be going for extra bases every night. Second best idea I ever had.
The funniest part is Bronson got the last laugh on us. We made a demo video of our group, and sent it to this record label in Sao Paolo. They offered Bronson a contract as a solo artist. I don’t know if he ever recorded anything, but I finally found the demo video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vpfT-Yhi6Wg
I cannot unhear this.
Poor Bruce Chen. He even sucks at music.
I spit my bit when I heard this. LMHAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
“Using fake names” lol.