George Springer Had an All-Time World Series

Symbolism is useful, but it’s also overused. The Astros just won the World Series, and George Springer just won the World Series MVP. Are there ways in which Springer is a symbol for what the Astros are, and for what they’ve achieved? Sure, if you need him to be. He’s a good young player. Homegrown. Seems like a leader. Thrived on the biggest stage. Springer could serve as a symbol, because he is great, and the Astros are great. Look how easy this is!

But while it’s appropriate that Springer won the award, I don’t think that’s because the Astros made a point of following his lead, or anything. I don’t think the Astros made themselves in George Springer’s image, any more than they made themselves in Jose Altuve’s. A winning team is a collection of a whole lot of talent. It’s appropriate that Springer won the award because of this.

You thought you were seeing a lot of this before. You haven’t seen anything yet. You’re going to hear about this from your dentist.

Like any larger-scale prediction that turns out to be right, there were areas where that article was dead on, and there were areas where it ultimately missed the mark. It very correctly identified the Astros as a team on the rise. It identified the Astros as a team willing to make unpopular decisions, and as a team willing to experiment. The article made a bold, overall statement: It believed in the strength and direction of the Astros’ rebuild. It liked what they were doing, even if the team ultimately didn’t get much from, say, Jon Singleton, or Jarred Cosart, or Brett Oberholtzer, or Brady Aiken. The article spent no time at all considering the possibility that Marwin Gonzalez would become a star-level utility type. You can’t predict every player. You can’t nail every detail. We knew, for example, the Dodgers would be good, but that doesn’t mean anyone foresaw Chris Taylor. Baseball teams, and baseball futures, are complicated.

But forget about all of that. The article made a statement, about the future of the Houston Astros. And the magazine made a statement, by putting George Springer on the cover. It didn’t have to be him. It could’ve been Altuve. It could’ve been Singleton. It could’ve been, I don’t know, Mark Appel. It could’ve looked worse, even with the same headline still coming true. Springer was the guy. Springer was put on the cover of one of the better-known issues of Sports Illustrated in recent memory. The Astros won the championship, and Springer was their most valuable player in their most important series.

There wasn’t even much in the way of competition. I suppose there could’ve been flimsy arguments for Altuve, or Charlie Morton, or Alex Bregman. But Springer was obvious, almost from the instant he connected for his second-inning dinger, knocking Yu Darvish out early once again. Springer hit five World Series home runs, which only two other players have done. He set a record with eight World Series extra-base hits, and he wound up with 29 at-bats and 29 total bases. Springer finished the series with a 1.471 OPS. Only Joc Pederson was also in four-digit territory, among the regular players. Springer blew away the competition.

And it’s worth recalling now how it started. Back in the ALCS, Springer was terrible. He was one of the worst performers for an Astros team that barely squeaked through. And in Game 1, in Los Angeles, Springer went 0-for-4, his line reading strikeout — strikeout — strikeout — strikeout. You know how these stories tend to go when the spotlight shines brightest. Springer was in a slump. Springer was over-swinging. Springer was lost, and the Astros needed him to be found.

He found himself in Game 2, and he didn’t slow down. Excellent hitters are only slumping until they’re not slumping anymore, and Springer snapped out of it overnight. I’d like to now share with you some numbers from The Baseball Gauge. It’s time to start dealing with win probability.

You’re presumably familiar with Win Probability Added. That’s WPA, which we also track here. It measures the changes in a team’s estimated chances of winning, following a given event. You can arrive at a number for a particular player by adding up the changes in win probability from all of his plate appearances. Out of everyone on both teams involved in this year’s World Series, Springer led in WPA, at +1.1. Altuve was second, at +0.5. Springer, in other words, was incredibly valuable, effectively worth more than a full win. The series had only seven games.

The Baseball Gauge also offers another, somewhat similar stat, called Championship Win Probability Added, or cWPA. Instead of regular WPA, which is concerned only with the one active game being played, cWPA is concerned with winning the whole series. Out of everyone on both teams involved in this year’s World Series, Springer led in cWPA, at +0.571. Bregman was second, at +0.222. Springer, in other words, was incredibly valuable, effectively improving the Astros’ chances of winning the title by 57%. That’s a hell of a push, despite a throwaway first game.

Springer doesn’t only rank high when you look at 2017. He’s coming off an all-time World Series performance. I filtered to look at all of the World Series, ever. Here are the top 10 players, by regular WPA.

Top 10 World Series WPA
Player World Series WPA
Waite Hoyt 1921 1.4
Jack Morris 1991 1.3
Christy Mathewson 1905 1.3
Willie Aikens 1980 1.2
Madison Bumgarner 2014 1.2
Carl Mays 1918 1.1
David Freese 2011 1.1
Gene Tenace 1972 1.1
Herb Pennock 1926 1.1
George Springer 2017 1.1
SOURCE: The Baseball Gauge

We find Springer in 10th place. And now here are the top 10 players, by cWPA.

Top 10 World Series cWPA
Player World Series cWPA
Ralph Terry 1962 0.947
Jack Morris 1991 0.919
Madison Bumgarner 2014 0.876
David Freese 2011 0.697
Pete Alexander 1926 0.667
Steve Blass 1971 0.648
Sandy Koufax 1965 0.648
Hal Smith 1960 0.647
Bucky Harris 1924 0.625
George Springer 2017 0.571
SOURCE: The Baseball Gauge

Once more, we find Springer in 10th place. There’s a difference between 10th place and first, and Springer didn’t just go all Ralph Terry or Jack Morris. But he was vaguely similar to what David Freese was back in 2011. Springer never had the chance to throw a Game 7 shutout. Instead, he spread his contributions around. Springer was responsible for six of the top-30 most important events from the World Series, by cWPA, and no one else was responsible for more than three. For a quick summary, here are the six plays. I’ve included the video highlights, because what is postseason baseball without video highlights?

No. 1 play: Game 5 home run, +12.4% World Series odds

No. 2 play: Game 7 home run, +11.4%

No. 3 play: Game 2 home run, +8.6%

No. 4 play: Game 4 home run, +7.3%

No. 5 play: Game 6 home run, +6.4%

No. 6 play: Game 7 double, +6.2%

The Astros didn’t win all of those games. And these numbers don’t take defense into account, so Springer isn’t penalized for, say, his ill-advised dive in center field that turned into a run-scoring triple. But Springer also turned in some quality plays, and, more importantly, he responded to that dive by hitting a tying home run as fast as he possibly could. It was a series of atonement, in a way. Springer almost instantly atoned for the unsuccessful dive. And, more broadly, he atoned for his unsuccessful ALCS. It was almost exactly one week ago that people talked about George Springer as if he might be too far gone. He’s the 2017 World Series MVP. No other player was worthy.

Credit to Springer for finding himself. Credit to Springer for not missing the pitches he was given. Credit to the Astros for putting their faith in Springer, even as it seemed like he might have too much of a strikeout problem. He’s come a long way since his days as a prospect. Springer, like the ballclub around him, matured into something with no visible weakness. It’s not that the Dodgers would’ve been an undeserving champion. But the Astros deserve to be the champion. Everything, every single contributing decision, has been validated. The Astros are too smart to get too hung up about the unpredictable chaos of the playoffs. The Astros are also too smart not to admit that winning feels better than losing.

We hoped you liked reading George Springer Had an All-Time World Series by Jeff Sullivan!

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Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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emh1969
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emh1969

Two straight World Series that went to game 7. Three straight World Series featurng both teams on long droughts of not winning a World Series. #BaseballIsTheBest

HappyFunBall
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HappyFunBall

I can’t wait for 2018, when we’ll continue the WS drought ending tradition and watch the 105 win juggernaut Washington Nationals against the 86 win wild card upstart darling Seattle Mariners.

WARrior
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WARrior

The Royals, Mets and Dodgers were not on long droughts. When there are thirty teams in the league, going thirty years without a WC is average, not long.

stever20
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stever20

actually if you look before these 3 years- those 3 teams had the 12th/13th/14th longest droughts of anyone. Today the Mets have the 10th longest drought of any MLB team. Dodgers have the 11th longest drought. Only 6 teams have longer than a 40 year WS drought.

right now the middle 2 teams are Colorado and Toronto in terms of WS title droughts. Those are at 25 now.

emh1969
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emh1969

For a significant portion of the Royals, Mets and Dodgers’ droughts, there were fewer than 30 teams in baseball.

bder19
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bder19

Not quite. If you assume perfect parity and that each team wins exactly one championship in a 30-year period, then the average championship drought should be 15 years over the last 30 seasons.

Obviously, parity isn’t perfect, and this isn’t the case. But to get to an average 30 year drought, we would want just one team winning as many championships as possible. If many teams win titles and reset their drought counter to 1, the average stays low; if one team’s counter stays at 1 and everyone else’s rises with each season, the average rises as well. If you do the math, one team would need to win 16 titles in a row for the average drought to be 30 years. This is more improbable than each team winning a title, which should indicate that 30 years is in fact quite long and not average.