2021 MLB Mock Draft: One Month To Go
We’re a month away from the 2021 Draft and it’s time for our first mock draft of the season. We have also posted an updated ranking of the prospects, which is available over on The Board. In a typical year, the Draft, which usually leads into the first or second weekend of June, would be wrapping up and teams would be beginning to prep for next year’s affair by heading to PG National in St. Petersburg to watch many of the top 2022 high schoolers. With the pandemic once again shifting the schedule, the draft is instead still a month out, and only now is substantive information circulating that makes a mock based on more than speculation and educated guessing viable.
Below we have names with teams down to pick 17, where the Reds (who also pick 30th and 35th) select. After that we have a smattering of dope and rumors to pass along, but otherwise still think it’s an exercise in futility to connect specific names with clubs toward the back half of the first round. This mock was compiled with info sourced from team personnel (a couple of general managers, scouts, cross checkers, directors, etc.), agents, and our own experiences at games (scouting the scouts and execs), as well as our own logical conclusions. As we receive feedback from more of our sources, and as teams cease scouting and huddle in the draft room for the next month, the rankings will grow and change, and we will update and lengthen our mock.
1. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pick: Marcelo Mayer, SS, Eastlake HS (CA)
EL: I think some part of what will ultimately drive what Pittsburgh does will be influenced by the way the couple of teams picking behind them line up their boards. If the Pirates have a group of players evaluated at a similar level and one of them doesn’t have another potential landing spot until several picks later, it’s a mutually beneficial situation for the player to sign for well under slot (so the Pirates have can flex bonus pool space later in the draft) but also for more than he’d have gotten otherwise. The names our sources typically put in the Pirates mix are high school shortstops Jordan Lawlar and Marcelo Mayer, and Louisville catcher Henry Davis. It’s likely that whoever the Pirates do at 1.1 will come in at least a little under slot, even if we’re talking about Jack Leiter. An epic first pick haircut — let’s say a deal for $2 million under slot, which means adding either an additional elite high schooler or two solid ones — would mean the player in question’s next highest home would need to be Baltimore. The names mentioned with Pittsburgh right now are also mentioned right behind them, so a cut that big feels unlikely at this point. Ben Cherington’s tenure with Boston (as GM) and Toronto (as an assistant GM) saw those clubs select college players (remember Trey Ball?) with their highest picks.
KG: The only consensus with the Pirates seems to be that the team itself has no consensus on who the top player is. This might come down to a day of the draft game of chicken to see who among Mayer, Lawlar and Davis will take the biggest haircut with the top pick and allow the Pirates to redistribute the largest bonus pool in the draft elsewhere.
2. Texas Rangers
Pick: Jordan Lawlar, SS, Jesuit Preparatory School (TX)
KG: It’s felt for a while like the Rangers will take the big name high school shortstop the Pirates don’t select. If the Pirates do Davis at one, this pick becomes more interesting.
EL: Lawlar’s name has been attached to the Rangers for quite a while, in part because he’s good and also because he’s a local kid. Clubs have seen heavy-hitting Rangers personnel, including special assistant Scott Littlefield, in to see North Carolina shortstop Kahlil Watson lately, but everyone has been in to see Watson lately because his season started later than most players. Lawlar, meanwhile, has been done for more than a month.
3. Detroit Tigers
Pick: Brady House, SS, Winder-Barrow HS (GA)
EL: The Tigers were five scouts deep, including GM Al Avila, at one of Texas high schooler Jackson Jobe’s starts a couple of weeks ago. A couple of my sources speculated that this regime’s behavior will be influenced by the need to show big league results soon, and that that points to Davis or an amenable Leiter. Henry Davis has a lot of overlap with Spencer Torkelson and/or Dillon Dingler. Making draft decisions based on who is already in your system feels like a bad idea but so does making one based on pressure for the big club to perform soon. Georgia high schooler Brady House has a Riley Greene vibe to him: a corner defensive fit, but clear big league physicality and a long track record of performance. Detroit was also heavy in Nashville over the weekend to see Kumar Rocker and Leiter, who both shoved.
KG: This one feels like the first wild card, but House provides a high school bat who some scouts have put the rare combo of plus bat/plus power on. Davis is in the mix here as well, as would be Mayer or Lawlar if one is still on the board.
4. Boston Red Sox
Pick: Jack Leiter, RHP, Vanderbilt
KG: Word is Leiter is trying to price himself down to Boston and wants to land there. Word is that Boston would love that as well. Thus, a match made in heaven.
EL: Yup.
5. Baltimore Orioles
Pick: Henry Davis, C, Louisville
EL: We have Davis’ name here because, in this scenario, he’d just be too strong a value to pass on. But the general sense from teams picking behind Baltimore is that they’d like to cut a high school bat. Mike Elias has usurped A.J. Preller as the GM scouts are most likely to eyeball at games, and this spring that has included House, Watson (whose name is mentioned at two, and then from here onward), Sal Frelick and Colton Cowser.
KG: When you have the best catching prospect in baseball, it feels a bit foolish to select Davis, but he’d be too hard to pass up at number five, and could move to first base or a corner outfield slot to just focus on the offensive ability. Plenty still think they’ll play it similarly to last year and cut a deal with an 8-15 range talent.
6. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pick: Khalil Watson, SS, Wake Forest HS (NC)
KG: The Diamondbacks have frequently been attached to the two best college outfielders over the last six weeks in Cowser and Frelick, but those two feel like a bit of a reach this high, and Watson’s top-grade tool set is too good to pass up.
EL: The general sense surrounding the D-backs right now is that if one of the high school shortstops gets here they’d be thrilled, and if not, they’re deciding among the college bats, most likely Frelick (who people put with them because he’s so much like all the little, lefty-hitting outfielders they’ve picked recently) and Cowser (who raked in front of acting GM Amiel Sawdaye).
7. Kansas City Royals
Pick: Kumar Rocker, RHP, Vanderbilt
EL: It indeed feels like, even with a dandy Super Regional start fresh in everyone’s mind, the volatility of Rocker’s stuff will cause him to fall. At some point a team will decide it’s worth the risk to take him and teams tend to think that range begins here with Kansas City. House and Watson have each been mentioned here, too.
KG: The Royals have had tremendous success drafting big-school college arms of late, and Rocker’s late-season surge makes him the perfect fit here.
8. Colorado Rockies
Pick: Colton Cowser, OF, Sam Houston State
KG: The Rockies are a real wild card; Eric and I have combined to hear nearly 10 names attached to this pick. Cowser is a bit of a safety net selection who could come along quickly and projects as an everyday bat in the corner.
EL: This is another org that scouts/execs I’ve spoken with think is hoping for one of the high school hitters to fall, but that is likely to pivot to a college bat if that doesn’t occur. I’ve had a couple sources put Pennsylvania prep outfielder Benny Montgomery in the mix here.
9. Los Angeles Angels
Pick: Jackson Jobe, RHP, Heritage Hall HS (OK)
EL: This feels like another potential Rocker landing spot. Jobe has huge stuff and fits in this range on talent, and Angels decision-makers have seen him. But they haven’t drafted high school pitching this high, opting instead for either premium athlete high school bats or college statistical performers, often young ones, though now that Perry Minasian is in charge the org’s thinking might shift.
KG: Jobe arguably has the best single pitch in the draft with a slider that has earned some 80 grades, but comes with all of the usual risks attached to high school arms. He has one of the bigger ranges of outcomes at this time, but it’s hard to see him falling out of the top 10.
10. New York Mets
Pick: Matt McLain, SS, UCLA
KG: The Mets have been attached to McLain for some time now, and he’s still here in this scenario. He’s either a great future trade chip or can slide over to second base to accommodate Francisco Lindor if he develops into the hitter many think he will.
EL: The Mets had the most heat in to see McLain during his final regular season weekend at ASU.
11. Washington Nationals
Pick: Sal Frelick, OF, Boston College
EL: This feels like the floor for Rocker given Washington’s willingness to snap up guys falling like he might, though it’s likely someone in the five or so picks before this just takes him. Ole Miss righty Gunnar Hoglund is also a logical speculation name to put here considering Washington’s success with TJ guys in the past. But in this scenario, Frelick is just great value.
KG: There’s been some talk of Frelick in the top 10 as a money saving move, but the talent falls more in the 11-15 range. He’s not an exceptionally physical guy, but he’s also shown a good approach, contact ability and sneaky pop while improving his draft value this spring by proving he can handle center field.
12. Seattle Mariners
Pick: Benny Montgomery, OF, Red Land HS (PA)
KG: The Mariners are a tough team to project right now. Montgomery is a big, athletic outfielder who provides speed and plus power potential and fits the mold of what the club looks for. This is probably the ceiling for Ty Madden as well.
EL: I’ve heard Montgomery’s name mentioned here, and also that this is the spot where UC Santa Barbara righty Michael McGreevy’s market seems to start. He’s a strike-thrower like George Kirby and Logan Gilbert before him, athletic and young and he might throw harder, and the Mariners have been open to guys with a fastball movement shape like this recently.
13. Philadelphia Phillies
Pick: Harry Ford, C, North Cobb HS (GA)
EL: The dope has been pretty dry around Philly, with just a couple sources pointing toward Montgomery, though that may just be due to proximity. If the month between now and the draft allows teams to talk themselves out of taking a high school pitcher early, then maybe we have a Mick Abel repeat here with Jobe. Ford is just good value here.
KG: Ford has been rumored as high as fifth overall; the question is where will he play as a pro. He’s shown promise behind the plate, but some scouts feel he has the tools to play center field, which would take much less of a physical toll than catching.
14. San Francisco Giants
Pick: Ty Madden, RHP, Texas
KG: Madden looks like a top 10 pick one Friday and then a back of the first-round type the next, so this middle area feels like a good landing spot. He’s also a good fit for the Giants, who will need to replenish their rotation quickly after 2021.
EL: The last few years the Giants have happily walked away with whatever falling college bat gets a little further down than expected, and one of Frelick and McLain would have the best chance of being that guy in 2021, though it’s unlikely either gets here. Madden is a pitching version of this after having a mixed season. The Giants haven’t been strictly on vertical slot guys, so maybe Hoglund (14th on The Board despite his surgery) and Kansas State lefty Jordan Wicks are possible up here, too.
15. Milwaukee Brewers
Pick: Jordan Wicks, LHP, Kansas State
EL: There’s general mid-round buzz on Wicks.
KG: The Brewers have a history of taking college arms and valuing command and performance as much as raw stuff, so Wicks fits the bill here.
16. Miami Marlins
Pick: Sam Bachman, RHP, Miami (Ohio)
KG: The Marlins are consistently enamored with power arms, and nobody offers more of that than Sam Bachman, who has routinely touched triple digits this spring, although questions about where he ultimately lies on the starter/reliever continuum remain.
EL: I have no real intel on the Marlins at this time. I think they like Chase Petty but Bachman is just a more polished version of that profile and still available here.
17. Cincinnati Reds
Pick: Andrew Painter, RHP, Calvary Christian HS (FL)
EL: The Reds pick here and then at 30 and 35, so there are lots of possibilities. They could try to buy a top 10 talent back to this pick and then cut a deal with an older player in the comp round; they could take one of the solid college arms here and be set up to scoop up a tough signability high schooler in the comp.
KG: The Reds have made considerable investments in pitching development over the last two years, and it’s already starting to pay off. A 6-foot-7, physical arm with five offerings is a great piece of clay to throw at their PD folks.
Notes From Our Conversations
- Ole Miss right-hander Gunner Hogland looked like a top 10 selection before undergoing Tommy John surgery, but that season-ended injury shouldn’t cost him too much in the end. He’s been rumored to go as high as the early teens, and multiple sources find the Yankees to be his floor with the 20th pick in the first round. A college arm with a broken elbow would be nothing new for the club, who took Clarke Schmidt with the 17th overall pick in 2017 a month after his Tommy John surgery.
- While Major League Baseball pushed the draft back by a month for a variety of reasons, the clubs themselves don’t see much of a benefit from the July start date. “What the f*** do we do for a month?” one executive asked, while another worried that the situation could lead to a bit of a “paralysis by analysis” situation, with magnets moving too much on the board and leading to mistakes.
- The old business adage of nobody getting fired for choosing IBM applies well to the draft, and the IBM of prep players is infielders from California. This is good news for players like Carson Williams, Max Muncy, Cody Schrier and Davis Diaz. The first two are generating a bit of late first-round buzz, while all four could be off the board as early as the end of the comp round.
- Oakland has been mentioned with Vegas high school outfielder Tyler Whittaker, and some of the area scouts think he could be their first rounder. He has power, speed, and a great frame, but a high-risk hit tool. Oakland has also been mentioned with California prep center fielder Matthew Polk, a contact-oriented prospect with a Vanderbilt commitment.
- Arizona high school shortstop Wes Kath has suitors toward the back of the first round, including the White Sox and the Rays. The Rays had three scouts at Kath’s last game.
- Beyond the Mariners rumors, the White Sox scouting director and a Yankees national cross checker were both at Michael McGreevy’s final start, though it wasn’t a great outing for the right-hander. The White Sox have been mentioned as a potential landing spot for Colson Montgomery late in the first round.
- Teams picking toward the back of round one think New Jersey high school fireballer Chase Petty will be gone by the time they pick, though he’s ranked behind that range on The Board (his delivery scares us). The Cubs (Ryan Jensen) and Yankees (Matt Sauer) are recent examples of teams that have used high picks on pitchers with violent deliveries like Petty’s.
First off thanks for all this coverage – absolutely great stuff.
2nd – love it if my Sox land Leiter at #4.
3rd – I’ve always thought it would be interesting to experiment with 2 good-hitting young catchers to get them time at a 2nd position so that you could have them each play nearly every day in the majors. So for the Orioles, if they get Davis, he could catch 40 games and play 100+ games elsewhere, leaving Rutschman to catch 120 games and play another 20-30 elsewhere. This would be a bit like Evan Gattis backing up Brian McCann not so long ago.
This scenario would be an absolute dream for the Red Sox with both Leiter and Davis still on the board. But given their previous draft tendencies, it seems rather unlikely that both the Rangers and Tigers will pass on Leiter. Texas has gone from selecting from the riskier demographics to the safer ones, and the Tigers keep picking SEC arms. I think he’s gone, but if he goes to the Rangers there’s still a decent chance Davis will still be on the board because apparently every Tigers decision maker has gone to see House and Mayer.
I guess it’s hard to see Leiter falling to the Red Sox or Davis falling to the Orioles, but one of the narrative conventions of mock drafts is that the counterfactuals don’t get shown, only what happens based on their guesses up top. In their descriptions it sounds like things are bit more fluid.
I feel like the Tigers’ affinity for SEC arms is overblown at this point. Since 2018 the Tigers’ have taken 2 SEC pitchers in the first 10 rounds. One was Casey Mize who was the consensus top player at the time and the other was Zack Hess in the 7th round.
The Dodgers have made having multiple starting catchers work since way back when Grandal swung the bat
Lol – they’ve done this so well, I’ve forgotten about this.
Gonna read this in a second, but I noticed you updated the Board!! Thank you! Gonna be a happy sadtrombone today.
This mock made me think of a few things…just some thoughts:
-I keep seeing Lawlar to the Rangers and I keep wondering if that’s correct. It makes total sense that the Rangers’ top decision makers have all gone to see Lawlar because he’s local. He’s a reasonable choice there but I think that connection might look stronger than it really is?
-Watson to the D-Backs and Rocker to the Royals feel inevitable. The D-Backs pick a short-levered up the middle guy with top athleticism? The Royals pick a hyped college arm that other teams talked themselves out of? You don’t say!
-I don’t think I’ve ever seen the words “Rockies” and “safe pick” together in the same sentence.
-If Baltimore wants to cut a deal with a prep bat at #5, it probably has to be someone who wouldn’t go in the top 10 to save money. I had been thinking that Harry Ford and Benny Montgomery would go in the #8/#9 range but if not then they’d be obvious targets. I don’t think anyone has reported this anywhere so this is just me thinking things through, but another name that makes sense there is Bubba Chandler. The backspinning fastball and power curveball is an extremely modern thing for teams to look for, and he’s probably not going anywhere close to #5 so he’d save a ton of money. Plus if he totally busts as a pitcher he’s got a backup plan.
-I think a lot of these guys don’t have good comps in the major leagues, but Colton Cowser is Brandon Nimmo. It couldn’t happen in this mock but I keep wondering if the Mets would take McLain over Cowser. I think they’d take Cowser; Alderson loves guys like Nimmo / Cowser.
-The Reds’ draft model does not penalize older high school hitters very much, and that’s the biggest ding on Montomgery’s record. I have heard the White Sox getting Colson Montgomery a lot but I would wonder if he gets past the Reds.
-The Marlins do love power arms, and I have to agree with KG: Chase Petty is pretty much what the Marlins look for. Whether they like him enough to take him in the mid-first round, that I don’t know.
-The Brewers interest in command and performance could lead them to Gunnar Hogland as well as Wicks.
If you want to cut a deal with someone, it’s a lot easier to do it with a college guy. High School guys have the college option if you try and underpay them.
My understanding is that players usually get selected with a deal in place, college or high school, when it’s way above or below where they’re expected to go. So if Bubba Chandler knows he isn’t getting picked until #16 or something like that, the Orioles see if he’s willing to take something a bit higher than the #16 slot. If he agrees they’d pick him, if he doesn’t they don’t.
Right, no matter who it is, you know their number before you make the pick. The obvious example of the high school who took a big cut to go higher was Correa. It’s more common with a college bat, but it happens with prep guys too. That said, I really don’t see the Orioles–who have taken one pitcher in 12 picks inside the first five rounds in the last two drafts–spending the fifth pick on a prep pitcher. I have no inside info at all, but the two names I think likeliest there are House (who might take a small cut b/c he may slip to 8 if O’s don’t take him) and Ford (who’d presumably take a bigger cut).
Yeah, House wouldn’t save a ton of money. He’s probably not going to AZ since they don’t love guys with long arms like him. The Royals’ slot at 7 is $5.4M, and the O’s at #5 is $6.1M, so you could see them trying to pick up a half million.
To me, the main reason to take House is that he’s basically on par with Lawlar / Watson / Mayer. If you want to save money for overslot guys later then guys like Ford and McLain are going to get you a lot further. (and Chandler would save even more but your point is well-taken)
I did my scouting on YouTube this weekend! Overall I think this is a weak draft, but the draft does have above avg # of top end ss prospects.
Marcelo Mayer…He’s best player in the draft he’ll go 1-1.
Not sure who rangers will take, but it won’t be Lawler. Lawler reminds me of Carlos Correa at the plate, really like his hitting profile, i think he hits. His issue is his position. Not a SS, looks like a LF or maybe a 2b to me. Has weak arm, and doesn’t have the SS actions i like to see. People pair him with rangers due to him being in DFW, but i don’t think they go that route. Plus he may be pricing himself out, will likely fall. I do think he can play SS though at the MLB level if someone was to force it, as their are several SS that play the position that shouldn’t.
Tigers will take the Best P in the draft and best single Pitch in the draft and likely a top 5 single pitch (slider) in mlb right now, Jackson Jobe. Athletic, repeatable actions, not mature at all and room to grow.
I’d stay away from Leiter and Rocker. ECU p looked equivalent this past wknd and was hitting 97 mph too. He just doesn’t have the last name. Leiter is hit or miss, some days 92 and gets rocked, some days 97mph and flashes. He’s mature and Not consistent, his name and jersey are bringing him to the top of the board. If he was in HS and not consistent then may be different. Rocker is a back half of 1st or 2nd round arm. Just avg fb. Henry Davis is way too high, swing is bad, and defense is avg. Don’t know what others are seeing.
The lowest risk tool in the draft is frelicks bat. he will hit in mlb. he hit in the cape, he hit in college, and his build and swing profile is almost a garuntee. His knock is his size and the question with him is does he hit for power and put up the + power required to lock down an OF spot and not be a 4th OFer.
The Sam Houston OF looked good. Liked his approach at the plate.
Watched a lot of College baseball this weekend for the 1st time this year, Stanford stood out as 1 of 2 schools that taught players to swing correctly top to bottom with professional approach. Stanford, UT, or AZ will win the whole thing.
This is, in fact, a take.
What people see in Henry Davis is that he just totally rocks pitchers in power conferences and has a very good shot to stick at the sport’s most demanding defensive position. He doesn’t look pretty doing it, but I think he’s my favorite player in the draft.
I also am not quite as sold on Leiter and Rocker, but I think what people are seeing is that they have top-notch pitch data that suggests batters will have trouble hitting them and that batters have had a ton of trouble connecting. They’re both a bit more inconsistent than I would like but they’re going to miss bats. Also, Gavin Williams is a beast; I think the problem is that he’s underrated rather than Leiter / Rocker are overrated.
Absolutely! he definitely could be. Some of my takes probably came across as too hot and too honest of my thoughts and i’ll be the 1st to tell ya i could 100% be wrong ha.
What Gavin Williams did against Vanderbilt answered a whole lot of questions about him. He’s the real deal.
I think Leiter reminds people so much of Walker Buehler that their eyes are clouded. And he might turn out to be that good! But I got my doubts as well. I actually think BOTH Leiter and Rocker will fall. I bet they both go 7-10, after all the HS shortstops, one or two bargain strategies involving someone like McLain or Frelick or Cowser, and Davis.
There’s been increasing emphasis on guys like Leiter and Ryan Cusick where the approach angle is really strong, but all of these guys have trouble hitting the strike zone from time to time. You have to have an absolute athletic freak to repeat your delivery when you get that low. Freddy Peralta is an example of a success story in that category, but there are just times when he cannot hit the strike zone because what he’s doing is so hard. For better and worse, you are not getting that with the guys with more traditional-looking starters like Rocker, Gavin Williams, Gunnar Hogland, Will Bednar, and Ty Madden.
I think Leiter’s really good for a number of reasons and he’s got a case for going as high as #1 (I think there are probably 5-7 guys who have that case this year, there’s no slam dunk pick) but he’s also kind of a scary pitcher. You’re banking that he can keep repeating that delivery, so that he brings the free passes down while continuing to blow the fastball by hitters. But the upside is enormous.
Leiter’s fastball has way better traits than Buehler’s did back around 2015. Will never forget seeing Buehler face A&M in the 2013 SEC Tourney in Hoover and giving up like four solo homers because it was just so straight at the time.
Suspect a lot of that is stick stuff.
I’m beginning to see Mike Sweeney as a comp for Davis. Which may be yet another possible outcome for Davis – plays perfectly OK at catcher, but gets moved to 1B because the rigors of catching take a toll on his development as a hitter.
With what we have seen this week or two with pitchers spinrate dramatically changing, and batters hitting the ball a lot better, it makes you wonder about evaluating college pitchers. The authors said college pitchers are certainly using substances.. So does that come into play at all assuming this ban sticks?
This is super important. Eric said in a chat a week ago that Leiter is almost certainly using sticky stuff. Him and Jobe have pitches that are off the scale in terms of their traits. You can’t avoid taking pitchers entirely but you start to wonder if a few of them in particular are especially risky.
I see alot of hot taking on Rocker’s fastball and I hope many live to regret. It’s dismissed because it cannot be reduced to a number, but his delivery is better than ever and once he *nails* it (still stumbles a little) that velocity will be back and playing better than ever. His fastball sucked more when he was throwing harder tbh, like the one he had his freshman year would be eaten alive in pro ball
I do think he falls because that velocity isn’t what the algorithms want from a college RH so high…I’ve got him to the Angels
Yeah the fastball didn’t miss bats last year. Now it plays better and it fools hitters way more than before; probably he’s getting better extension on it, or the approach angle works better. The velocity might not come back all the way but even if it stabilizes at sitting 92-94 he’ll be in better shape than he was before.
I don’t think he gets by the Royals. Maybe House falls to them but even then…one of the Royals’ comparative advantage is not overthinking it when other teams pass on top college pitching.
I’m not convinced on that Royals thing at all, see them trying to put a lineup together with a top 10 pick than taking yet another college pitcher
If you go back and watch Rocker’s 19 K game, every single one of them was on the slider. Great feat, awesome pitch, but also not the most ideal way to get there from someone so young, really glad he has made the changes he made. Between the mechanical changes (which he started last year a little) and not having to throw 3 full NCAA seasons, I’m much less worried about a potential arm surgery super early than I might have been
To me, Brady House is the hardest guy to pinpoint. Some think the hit tool could be plus, others see it as below average w/lots of swing and miss. Some think he can stick/fake it as SS, others see a corner only.
If he is a legit plus/plus hit/power who can stay at SS? That is the #1 prospect in the draft.
If hes corner only with a below average hit? There’s like 15 other guys I’d rather have
He apparently changed his swing after he struggled a bit over the summer, so now it is less like him swinging for the fences every time and more just trying to make contact. If the current swing holds and works, it’s less power and more contact. So 70 game power seems a bit rich, while 45 hit seems a bit light.
He’s probably a third baseman but a good one. Plus hit, plus power, plus field at third base is a 5-win player. He’s probably the best at the plate out of him, Mayer, Lawlar, and Watson. People keep comping him to Kris Bryant and I don’t really think that’s fair, and he’s probably not as good as Bryant because Bryant is outstanding, but I also get it. I’m also not totally convinced that Mayer is staying at shortstop.
this draft feels like it’s somewhat lacking at the top 1-2, but is extremely deep with “secondary top talents”. Like, I think you could argue ~8 guys for being #1 here.
Excellent draft for picking 4-8 IMO
MOAR college coverage!
A lot of the Brady House profile reminds me of Wil Myers, who was a potential 6 hit 6 power guy with good athleticism. The swing and miss, the future move to RF? Similar height weight, etc. Not a bad guy to get on your team, if so.
There’s another Max Muncy playing baseball?
Much appreciated! As much as I hate the NCAA and the draft in principal, they got me young and I’ve got something like a shinnin’
Hot takes:
– I think Matt McLain’s being underrated a little during mock season. The algorithms that do most of the drafting are going to love a 3 year SS starter at a major program who has been mashing and performed well in the CCBL (at 19 too). I’ve got him at 3 to the Tigers, though I did like seeing House so high
– I think Bachman is more Brewers than Wicks, they love fastballs that do more than just play. Could also see the Phillies being all over Wicks with their RH dominant rotation and complimentary skillset to Nola and Wheeler
– I’d be stunned if the Phillies are the ones who get Ford after extending Realmuto, even if they plan to move him off. It’s just not a great look and kind of a luxury pick with how mediocre the ML pitching is after Nola and Wheeler
– I really like Kath. Not first round like, was hoping he’d last longer, but yeah he’s a giant LHH non-1B IF
– Petty’s weird in that I think he’s a first rounder in the mold of McCullers but healthy, but man if I were taking a HS pitcher in this draft first round give me Josh Hartle. I like the Value on non-first HS RHs like Irv Carter and Ben Kudrna a little more than Petty in the first, but yeah I think Petty’s underrated during mock season after initially coming out strong in early 2021 rankings.
– Devin Futrell must be crazy unsignable plus I guess the algorithms don’t love where his velocity is currently at because he’s got more going on than so many more ballyhooed HS arms. If he gets to Vandy, he could be their best LHSP prospect since Price
– I think someone tags Baez the HS OFer in the first round. He’s young for the draft, huge, and mashed last summer. I hope he doesn’t get Rocker’d – pushed to the NCAA by the league’s marketing machine rather than going firmly in the first out of HS on merit
– I think the Rangers are going to surprise everyone and pop House. He’s the youngest, biggest, and loudest bat of the SSs up top, I don’t think that’ll get lost on the algorithms and they’ve been pretty forward about drafting mashers (Jung, Foscue) who aren’t necessarily great defenders at the positions they were drafted at
– Totally agreed on Hoglund and the Yankees. He could be the new Tanaka skills-wise, and so many will see the TJ surgery as “getting it out of the way” rather than something that can be avoided
– For all his flaws, I think Fabian goes in the first 19 picks. He’s a sure CF, can really play the position at a time the league is mostly a black hole, and at 20 – the rare true ARL guy – has plenty going for him offensively even if there’s been some swing and miss. I’ve got him to the Mariners, who have a giant CF to
occupy and two bat first mashers to surround him with
– I think the Royals are popping a college bat, maybe Cowser or Frelick. Singer, Lacy, Bubic give them some potential rotation studs and the focus now seems to be getting a lineup around them
– The Ford hype is fun, I legit think he’s the best player in this (very good) draft, but I’m hoping it’s also peaking. With how conservative the draft is, mostly because fewer and fewer people do the draft probably, I can’t imagine a HS catcher has a top 5 ceiling or is even a *great* bet to go in the teens
I agree with your analogy Gato But I would take Rocker early before Leiter. Rockers size has a lot more room for growth than Leiter. I love both but just my opinion! The Futrell kid has all the tools just needs to put some weight on but heard he’s already bumped 95…. He gets to Vandy and he could be a very early pick…. I tend to look at body more than others on here cause I just think at the next level the more tools you have in the tool box the better……I’m not a big believer in Velo at the HS level, it only leads to hurt kids down the road….. MLB Network had a good analogy on this same thing yesterday….
Mariners? Not even. One, the M’s believe they have CF covered well enough, and two, the central thing Dipoto preaches is controlling the strike zone. Fabian is not his kind of risk.
Personally, if Ford is indeed there at #12, I hope they take him.
Yeah, I’d say the Mariners are a team that could be in on Ford.
Who’s playing CF for the Mariners? Kyle Lewis? Two blown knees and a new knee issue taking him out. Fabian’s got a near 15% BB rate in the SEC since he was 18, why couldn’t he control the strike zone?
Ehhhh I don’t think the Mariners are going to be drafting for perceived need. Maybe some teams do this but the Mariners have a model and they stick to it. My guess is that if Frelick, Cowser, or McLain is on the board they take them. College bats who perform and who don’t strike out much, and at least one should be there (not in this mock but that’s because both the Rockies and Nationals are acting weird). If they do draft Ford he’s probably not staying at catcher because prep catchers are extremely risky, but with Ford’s athleticism it might be the right call anyway.
I don’t think any of those 3 players are going to be available, maybe Frelick, but also Fabian just seems underrated at this point. All the focus is on the one flaw and not that this guy’s a legit CF with speed, power, and patience doing in college since he was 18 (when the typical freshman is a year older). Not only has he been doing it since 18 but he’s one of the even fewer college bats to go to the CCBL and hit with wood bats. Guy’s got a .300+ IsoSLG this year (second in a row too), is in the convo for best defender among first round prospects and college players, and again doing all this at 20 as a 3 year starter who made all the rounds (almost 800 PAs in college even with the pandemic shortened 2020)
A good org might get a Mike Cameron-esque player out of Fabian
Erik and Kevin,
I have a long-winded, multi-faceted question.
Tier 1 seems to be 8 players deep:
H Davis
B House
J Jobe
J Lawlar
J Leiter
M Mayer
K Rocker
K Watson
(I see you have Cowser above Jobe in this mock…so my info might be out of date or different than yours and I’m okay with that and understand yours is more first-hand knowledge).
How big is the next Tier of players that are similar in abilities and could go anywhere from 9th overall to xth overall? Who is in the next tier?
Also, did you stop before the Cardinals pick at 18 because those 8 or 9 through 17 ARE that next tier or because the Cardinals keep what they’re doing close to the vest and you don’t have much from them?
Or is it some other reason – like, obviously you hate us STL fans? (kidding)
Thanks for any insight you have on any of the above.
Another hot take I feel pretty strongly about: Edwin Arroyo will be young for the class, plays defense, was very good last summer/“tested” well, switch hits
Out of PR but playing his senior year in Florida. Seems right up Cleveland’s alley