Five Prospects Teams May Regret Trading
A large number of prospects changed hands this past off-season as teams jumped at the opportunities to acquire some promising young stars. Some of those prospects have a good chance to one day make their former teams regret sending them packing. Let’s have a look at a few of them:
1. Jose Campos, RHP: Sophomore right-hander Michael Pineda was the key target in the swap with Seattle that sent rookie catcher Jesus Montero west but Campos, 19 years old and ready for low-A ball, could really swing this trade in New York’s favor if he develops as hoped. The prospect is still a long way away from reaching his potential but he has the stuff to develop into a No. 1 or 2 starter. He’s definitely not the type of arm you usually get as a throw-in to a deal and the Yankees organization has a strong history of player development. Montero is the type of player that you don’t mind giving up a lot of value for (assuming he also reaches his potential) but the loss of two top starters could really end up stinging (even more than the likes of Jose Cruz Jr., Chris Tillman/Adam Jones, Brandon Morrow).
2. A.J. Cole, RHP: Cole was acquired by Oakland in the deal with Washington that saw young, possibly underrated, hurler Gio Gonzalez traded to his fourth organization. The four-prospect package received by Oakland contained some better known players but not necessarily more talented or valuable than Cole. He has the ceiling of a No. 2 or 3 starter but will likely need another two to three seasons in the minors before reaching the Majors. The acquisition of Gonzalez certainly strengthens the Nationals’ starting rotation – especially after the club also signed Edwin Jackson to go along with Stephen Strasburg and Jordan Zimmermann – but it further weakens the organization’s minor league depth. It also hurts the club’s chances at supplementing the starting rotation with cheap, high-ceiling talent in the next three to four years.
3. Yasmani Grandal, C: When you have to make a trade your hope is to do it from an area of strength/depth, which is exactly what Cincinnati did when it acquired young stud pitcher Mat Latos from San Diego. Cincinnati’s front office clearly felt comfortable including Grandal in the deal because they already had rookie catcher Devin Mesoraco who was further along in his development. I personally see Grandal developing into a better hitter than Mesoraco but the latter catching prospect is the better all-around player when you also consider defense and leadership. With that said, Cincinnati definitely offers a better home hitting environment than San Diego. It will be interesting to watch how this move plays out in the coming years.
4. Jarrod Parker, RHP: Looking to upgrade their starting rotation, the Diamondbacks may have actually downgraded. Parker was sent to Oakland, along with reliever Ryan Cook and outfielder Collin Cowgill, in exchange for three-year big-leaguer Trevor Cahill. I can understand why the Arizona front office sees this as a worthwhile gamble because Arizona has the likes of Trevor Bauer, Tyler Skaggs, Patrick Corbin and Archie Bradley on the way and young pitchers capable of throwing 200+ innings do not grow on trees. However, I will hazard a bet that Parker will be the more valuable player by 2013 or ‘14. And he’s probably going to be better in ’12 than Josh Collmenter and possibly Joe Saunders. If he can sharpen his command he has the ceiling of a No. 2 starter
5. Miles Head, 1B/3B: Head doesn’t really fit with the four players above; he’s definitely a “sleeper prospect” rather than a proven Top 100 prospect. The infielder is a bat-only player who has been transitioned from the hot corner to first base, which will put more pressure on his offensive output. However, he shows the ability to hit for power and to produce good on-base rates. With a little trimming to his strikeout rate Head could also produce a respectable batting average. Based on his wRC+ of 174 at the age-appropriate level of low-A ball in 2011 you might start hearing more about this prospect in ‘12 and I definitely prefer him over any of Boston’s current first base prospects, including Lars Anderson.
Others of Note: Yonder Alonso, Nestor Molina
Marc Hulet has been writing at FanGraphs since 2008. His work focuses on prospects and fantasy. Follow him on Twitter @marchulet.
Zack Wheeler?
Article only discusses prospects traded during the offseason.
My response exactly. Even though that trade was late last year, it still stands out as the one any team will regret the most.
Right now, the Giants don’t even have a 5th ML starter (technically, they don’t have a 4th either, though Vogelsong will probably return from the DL on schedule), nor any farmhand that is anywhere close to being one (possibly Surkamp if his injury is not serious).
The Wheeler trade is part of the reason that the Giants felt forced to way, way, way overpay for Cain.
The Cain deal isn’t a huge overpay. It’s just plain risky to sign pitchers long term. If Cain doesn’t get injured or fall off a cliff, then the Giants get their money’s worth.
If Cain’s numbers finally revert to what they SHOULD be and not what he’s doing, then it will be an overpay.
I agree. 1300 innings is a tiny sample. I expect that HR rate to regress any minute now.
@John, yes Matt Cain’s 1300 career innings are a fluke. Any moment now he will become the pitcher he should be. FIP is useful, but not the holy gospel.
Lol, the Wheeler deal had absolutely nothing to do with the amount of $$$ Cain got. I cant stress that any more emphatically.
The Giants have been exceedingly frugal with signings with the implicit understanding that they needed to lock up their rotation studs at any cost. Wheeler was and is absolutely irrelevant to that.
jesus, what an awful deal for the giants. Also, does anyone else think that the stros got hosed in the bourn deal. I haven’t seen that opinion shared anywhere else, but they really didn’t get any high upside guys at all.
Comparing the beltran and bourn deals is pretty ridiculous. An oft injured 1/2 year rental returned more than a premier speedster with 1 1/2 years left on his contract.
I think Trevor Cahill may well have a bit of growth left. His strikeout rates have inched upwards each year, albeit incrementally, and there are a few analysts that have stated that more strikeouts should be coming. I don’t know that he boasts the same ceiling or repertoire of Parker in terms of pure stuff … but it is worth noting that he’s only about nine months older than Parker, with more experience and fewer red flags.
Marc can I get an honest breakdown of why it is you love Jarrod Parker so much? I understand he has a big time fastball, but his off speed stuff I’ve only seen graded out as average at best. He has had problems both before and after TJ with control. He has already had one major injury set back at a young age. His mechanics look good to me as best I can tell from the video I’ve seen but really there seem to be a ton of red flags with Parker. I just cannot comprehend why he is showing up as high as he is on everybody’s lists.
The breaking ball feel is going to be the last thing to come back after surgery. I’m giving him the benefit of the doubt based on his pedigree and his raw stuff. He’s also going to be pitching in a big park (and leaving a hitter’s park), which is going to help.
parkers slider was graded as plus before TJ.
The dbacks may regret trading Parker because they traded him for Cahill. As an AZ fan, I loathe this trade. Cahill clearly has his best year behind him and he isnt 25 yet. All his peripherals suggested he would regress from his 18 win season and he did. Massive overpay by AZ, thats why they will regret losing Parker, because Cahill just isnt worth it.
That’s what happens when a team is close to a Championship window.
The following year (or at the trading deadline), they overspend on
players that supposedy can help now. In 1960, after having lost in
the previous year’s WS, the White Sox acquired veterans and mortgaged
their future (albeit Johnny Callison, Norm Cash, Earl Battey, John
Romano, etc.). In 1987 Detroit sent John Smoltz (a future Hall of Fame
pitcher) for Doyle Alexander (for help during their pennant drive).
However, you live and die with prospects. Sometimes they develop,
and sometimes they don’t. For an opportunity to win a World
Championship, I would commit the same risks! Go for it! If it
works you’re a genious. If it doesn’t, you’re a BUM. GM’s get
paid to take the HEAT!
Considering their current first baseman, I seriously doubt the Red Sox will regret trading Miles Head.
That’s one of the reasons why he’s the “sleeper” on this list… but you can still regret trading a player even if you don’t have room for them… They could put him at DH or live with his defense at 3B if the bat develops well enough.
Sleeper is probably an understatement. They have an MLB ready version of Miles Head in Ryan Lavarnway (no real position, plus bat but fringe average for 1B/DH), and they can’t find him playing time. Middlebrooks is close to being ready at 3rd, and they have great 3B depth beyond him (Cecchini, Bogaerts, etc.). Youkilis and Ortiz are also still in the way, I just don’t see how Head could’ve broke through with the Red Sox unless he seriously improved his game AND they had multiple prospects (with better pedigree & tools than Head) struggle during their development.
The title makes it sound like a BleacherReport article.
ouch
haha, true. 😀
At least the article wasn’t structured as one of their horrific slideshows. 2 sentences and a photograph does not a full page make. *Shudder*
Although if it was, their could have sold 5 times as many Charles Barkley Weight Watchers ads!
“and the Yankees organization has a strong history of player development.”
Seriously?
It does! They have a strong history of developing new free agents into overpaid old players past their prime!
Yea Jeter Rivera Posada Pettite Williams Cano Gardner Robertson are all terrible……..
I know, right! How in the world do they keep winning more than any team in baseball?
“Yea Jeter Rivera Posada Pettite Williams Cano Gardner Robertson are all terrible……..”
Almost word for word the response I was going to make.
Jeter – Classy guy and talented hitter, but generally overrated.
Rivera – Legit in any rotation.
Posada – Only interesting in New York.
Pettite – Cheater.
Williams – Only interesting in New York.
Cano – Legit in any lineup.
Gardner – Serviceable bottom-of-the-order guy on any decent team.
Robertson – Only interesting in New York.
So yeah. Their player development is decent and has worked well for them, but it isn’t the premiere Hall of Famer factory that Yankee fans assume it is.
funny joke Snowblind
Hilarious. So consistently churning out Hall of Famers is the bar for successful player development?
Do you have any idea how good a career Bernie Williams or Jorge Posada had?
Do you realize David Robertson was the (tied) 3rd most valuable reliever in all of baseball last year?
Do you realize that Gardner has put up back to back 5+ WAR seasons?
@ snowbling
Jeter – top 25 shortstop of all time….not overrated
Rivera – not a starter but the best relief pitcher ever who throws one of the top 5 pitches ever
Posada – it is only interesting in NY that Posada was one of the game’s best catchers for over a decade?
Pettite – he’s the only one?
Williams – the star CF (batting title, gold gloves, all start appearances) on a dynasty? yea your right only interesting in NY
Cano – only legit? definitely one of it not the best 2b in the game
Gardner – serviceable? the guy worth 11.2 WAR the past two years?
Robertson – one of the best relievers in baseball with a 13.5 k/9 and worth 2.8 WAR just last yr. That’s only interesting in NY?
The homegrown talent the Yankees developed during the 90s was certainly first rate (with the largely forgotten GMs Gene Michael and Bob Watson at the helm). But it’s 2012 now, so let’s not bring up 1994. The Cashman’s era has been less successful with player development, especially when it comes to young pitching. If you really think the Yankees did the best they could possibly do with developing Phil Hughes, Ian Kennedy, and Joba Chamberlain, you’re being pretty generous. (And *do not* argue to me that because they got Granderson for Kennedy that this is somehow evidence for their player development.)
good point peter. It’s bullcrap to say that posada and williams are only interesting in NY, but recently, the yanks have failed on quite a few highly rated prospects.
**pitching prospects**
Solid points Peter, but the article clearly said “history”.
Pomeranz may be better than Ubaldo rt now.
Grandal was devalued by Cincy simply because of Mesoraco’s presence. I think it’s dangerous to deal from projected areas of strength… Especially prospect areas. Cincy intended to overpay as leverage simply by including that combination of “expendable” prospects. Boxberger is a nice little steal as well.
I feel the same way with respect to the Braves dealing Hoover for Juan Francisco.
Hoover is just about ready for the Show, and I feel that while his ceiling may be limited, he has all the tools to be a solid back-end starter, and fairly soon. The Braves look at this as “dealing from depth,” but the injuries suffered by Hanson, Jurrjens, Vizcaino, and Medlen over the last eighteen months or so are demonstrative of how quickly depth can disappear.
With Grandal and the general volatility of catchers, it seems sort of a misnomer to say that he was dealt from ‘depth.’
right now i think i’d probably put montero #1 on this list
this.
Please don’t tell me you believe this because Montero had one spring training better than Pineda’s….
But….but!!!!! Spring Training means everything!!! If you hit below .300 in ST, you should NOT make any team.
yes, precisely. it’s pineda’s spring training statistics that i’m concerned about. not the fact that his velocity’s down and his shoulder hurts
Or maybe because he’s a 22 year old with a major league ready bat with a potential to stick at catcher?
Nope that can’t be it.
Well, aside from the potential to stick at catcher, everything you said is true.
If he can’t catch, he’ll have to be Ortizesque at DH in order to make it truly regrettable.
I continue to think that the Nationals will have multiple reasons to regret the Gio Gonzalez trade.
Same here. I don’t know why the author said he was under-rated. I consider Gio to be extremely over-rated.
It’s funny – from where I’m sitting the pendulum has swung from over rated to under rated on Gonzalez. At first he was regarded as a LHP with a plus fastball and one of the best curve balls in MLB who has been under the radar because the A’s stink. Then the drumbeat started: he’s a product of the Oakland ballpark (which really doesn’t play all that different from Nationals Park – even the foul ground contributes maybe an extra out every other game); he walks too many people (true); his stats are a product of the lousy AL West (true, but he doesn’t get to pitch against the A’s hitters so that major benefit is gone; it’s not like the Rangers and Angels suck). Etc.
All these lose track of a young (26), durable (200+ IP per season) LHP with strikeout stuff who is just reaching his peak years. It’s hard to imagine that the affects of leaving Oakland are going to outweigh not having to deal with the DH. Gonzalez’s home/road splits aren’t that dramatic, and a large part of the distinction is (weirdly) his fielders. They make fewer plays (BaBIP is .279 at home, .312 on the road) and a lot more errors (in virtually the same number of innings his fielders made twice as many errors on the road as at home) on the road.
Gonzalez is a good, young, durable #3 pitcher who still has #2 pitcher upside. He’ll never be Strasburg and may never even be Cole Hamels. The Nationals paid a price, but in prospects – a currency that’s always a crap shoot.
Although not on the same tier as these guys,
The Orioles will regret trading Randy Henry to Texas for Taylor Teagarden.
i already do. does that count?
The M’s well knew what they were giving up with Campos but they needed a MLB starter (Noesi) for this season to take Pineda’s spot in the rotation until the big 3 show up.
They knew they were giving up a high ceiling pitcher, but if they thought he had a good chance of reaching that ceiling, they would’ve found another serviceable starter on the FA market and not included Noesi. If Campos becomes a top of the rotation type starter (especially if Noesi is an ordinary back of the rotation type) the Mariners will obviously regret dealing him, which is the purpose of th article. He’s not suggesting they didn’t know what they gave up, just that their calculated risk could result in dissatisfaction.
Well, sure, but I think Campos is far too often seen as a throwaway, which gives the impression that the deal was Campos and Pineda for Montero. The M’s also got their #3 starter in the deal. That makes it hard to call Campos a “throw-in” – at the very least, you can argue that the M’s turned a high ceiling guy, but a high ceiling guy who’s only played in short-season ball for a low-ceiling MLB starter. That’s not bad.
The M’s may still regret dealing Campos – i’m not debating that – but it’s not like they gave him away.
Didn’t the As say they are moving Head back to 3B (amazingly, btw)?
At his age, it’s worth a look.
Still can’t believe all the rationalizations I’ve seen for trading Jesus Montero. One minute the guy is the best bat prospect in the minors, the next minute he’s a player you don’t mind trading?? Huh?
For all the “he doesn’t have a position” or “he’s not a ML catcher”, what’s wrong with 1B?
Agreed. Putting aside my NL prejudices for a moment, what’s wrong with DH?
I get that the Yankees have a 1Bman locked in for a while, but Montero could have DHed there till the Teixeira era ends. Aside from that, if Montero can’t handle catching duties in Seattle it’s not like they have anything great blocking him at 1B, not to mention they also have a DH slot to fill… Elite power bats don’t grow on trees.
“Elite power bats don’t grow on trees.”
When you are the Yankees they grow on the free agent market just fine. They are not exactly hurting for elite power bats. Right now they have one at first, second, third and centerfield. Not bad.
Fangraphs and most other sabermetric analysts love the Montero trade from the Yankee perspective, but most fans, from New York and elsewhere, seem to hate it. A lot of these fans are basing their concern on one spring training, which does not even warrant a response here on fangraphs.
Others are basing it on the fact the Yankees did not get enough value back from Montero. I contend it is the other way around. Look at the haul the Padres got for Latos, or the A’s for Gonzalez: multiple, high-level prospects. The Mariners got only one high-level prospect, while also dealing away another highly touted prospect of their own in Campos. And Pineda’s peripherals suggest he might be the best between Latos, Gonzalez, and himself-something multiple Fangraphs authors have contended.
With all that said, it’s interesting to see that the majority of fans and commentators here seem to think the Yankees got hosed on this trade.
Who said he is a player you don’t mind trading?
Are you misreading where he said Montero is a player you don’t mind trading a lot FOR? I.e. from the Mariners POV?
Or are you just confused why he isn’t on the list? I agree that he is more likely to out-WAR anyone on this list. I just think the slant of this piece was more about the players that people weren’t necessarily thinking about when these trades come to mind. For example, Alonso was the headliner of the Matos deal, but it’s really Grandal that the Reds may regret trading. I guess Parker doesn’t really fit that so much, but that’s my take.
It is obvious that the Yankees could regret trading Montero. They know that. Everyone knows that.
I did misread that. That said, I still think Montero is an eye-popping omission for this list.
The reason Montero was tradeable was that he is blocked at his only 2 possible positions (he is clearly not a major league caliber catcher defensively). 1B is Teixeira’s for at least another 3 years, and A-Rod will need to be transitioned to DH starting this year. The club is obligated to him for ANOTHER 6 YEARS, and he’ll never be productive for the majority of that if he tries to play 3B. Hasn’t happened the last 4 years, won’t happen the next 6. Essentially A-Rod’s contract made Montero a player without a position. Plus you do have to give a good player to get a good player, unless you’re trading with the Giants.
Having seen both Grandal and Mesoraco I’m not convinced at all that Grandal is a better hitter, though he does provide some value as a switch-hitter who is better from the left side in terms of contact and line drive ability. I think Mesoraco has more power and has shown solid pitch recognition and contact ability of his own. The regret I have about Grandal is that of the two he had the best chance to move off the position and provide another good bat at low cost.
Sure, in theory a team will “regret” trading a prospect who pans out, but these teams got Jesus Montero, Gio Gonzalez, Mat Latos and Trevor Cahill for the first 4 guys. You have to give up potential studs to get these already-proven studs (well, not quite proven in Montero’s case). In fact, I’ll even give ya Campos because he’s the forgotten piece of the deal.
I get what the piece is going for, but it’s kind of obvious, too. These were blockbuster trades, of course these are high ceiling prospects. I guess when I saw the headline I was looking for five Miles Head/Campos types as I don’t really need anyone to outline how AJ Cole could pan out for the A’s. If Gio holds firm or improves, though, and pushes them into contention then the Nats most certainly won’t regret the deal at all. Same w/Grandal-Latos, etc…
I know you’re in obligated to do me any favors, but could you expand on your rationale as why you included Nestor Molina?
This is how I saw the trade:
The Blue Jays’ projections for Molina was in the bullpen, but they needed bullpen help right now. Thus Santos was acquired. Both Molina and Santos have 6 years of control, so I thought it was a pretty good move.
Also Molina seemed to overlap with Henderson Alvarez, both of whom are strike throwers with low walk rates. However, between the two, Alvarez is younger and has much more experience with starting games.
I think that’s why the Blue Jays saw Molina as ‘expendable’.
The situation might be a bit similar to why the Diamondbacks trade away Jarrod Parker.
Correction.
You’re NOT obligated to do me any favors, but could you expand on your rationale as to why you included Nestor Molina?
*That was embarrassing*
Sorry about that.
“I personally see Grandal developing into a better hitter than Mesoraco but the latter catching prospect is the better all-around player when you also consider defense and leadership.”
A stopped reading at that point
Defense and Leadership……riiiiiiiight. What metrics are you basing that crystal ball/ talking out of your arse comment on?
Sorry to say fellow Marc, but this article seems pretty pointless. You could say this about any prospect that was dealt this off season.
My two from the Padres point of view are going to be Antony Rizzo and to a lesser extent, Simon Castro. Rizzo was traded before being given a real chance and Castro was tossed on the scrap heap after one bad year… pulling the trigger too soon seems to be a Padres speciality.
I have a feeling Brewers fans are just now beginning to feel the regret of trading Brett Lawrie last season. Marcum was a key piece in winning the division, but considering his dismal playoffs and pending free agency, one NLCS berth might not be worth losing the potential we’ve seen from Lawrie thus far.
It is well known that the Yankees prioritise Winning every year over all else, and that’s the way the fans want it. So by definition, player development has not been our top priority. Both Hughe’s and Joba’s poor development was due to needing them on the MLB field, to try and win the division those years… as opposed to putting their development first.
NY fans want it all. If we had the best sprinter in history, people would complain that he can’t run a marathon.
I guess if we didn’t mind finishing 3rd the last 4 years, we could have developed our guys better.
I already regret the DBacks trade of Parker. I thought it was a downgrade when it happened. Cahill is going to have to be pretty freaking great for me to be convinced otherwise. I’d have rather had Parker than Cahill, Saunders or Collmenter.
Ah, well. Hope he has a great season. I’d love to see him succeed. Hope Bauer, Skaggs, Corbin and Bradley all pan out.
“..but the latter catching prospect is the better all-around player when you also consider defense and leadership.”
Maybe its just me, but I would think that leadership is something almost impossible to project in a prospect. Also, I think that comparing the leadership of a player with around 50 ML plate appearences to a guy who hasn’t got out of the minors yet is kind of crazy, esp when used as a reason that he is a better all-around player.
Just a minor nitpick.
Leadership is often evident at all levels. In my field, I’ve seen 18-year olds come into a dressing room and immediately command respect from older players because of the way they carry themselves and a confidence that borderlines on cocky arrogance.
Its the Scouts that find the young talent, not the GM’s. And, the
Yankees have the best scouts in the business. They have the
largest TV Market, so can afford to sign the big name Free
Agents. Its good business for them. Even if they do not go to
the WS, they fill their huge ballpark with fans. Its a WIN WIN
situation for them. However, one problem they seem unable
to overcome is developing pitchers. In the last 40 years
they’ve only managed to develop two starters, Ron Guidry
and Andy Pettite. But so what! They can always buy (i.e.
Roger Clemens, Mike Mussina, Catfish Hunter?).