Aargh, the Pirates Are in Danger of Making Dubious History

Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images

There’s no getting around the fact that the Pirates are a bad baseball team. At 54-74, they’re well on their way to their seventh consecutive losing season and ninth out of the past 10. Even so, they’ve only got the majors’ fourth-lowest winning percentage (.422) — it’s not like they’re the Rockies (.289) or the White Sox (.354). Yet it turns out the Pirates are chasing history, albeit in an under-the-radar and unflattering way. They’re in danger of becoming the first AL or NL team since the start of the 20th century to finish the season without a single hitter producing at a league-average level or better.

I don’t mean “without a single regular,” though depending upon how we define that term, that’s on the table as well. I mean anybody who’s stepped up to the plate while wearing the Pirates’ black and gold this season. The top Pirates hitters by wRC+ are infielders Nick Gonzales and Liover Peguero, both of whom are sporting a wRC+ of 98. The 26-year-old Gonzales, Pittsburgh’s regular second baseman, is hitting .278/.322/.392 through 264 plate appearances. He’s been limited to 62 games due to a fractured left ankle, caused by his fouling a ball off himself during spring training, though he played on Opening Day and even homered off the Marlins’ Lake Bachar. After hobbling around the bases, he landed on the injured list and didn’t return to the lineup until June 3. Peguero, a 24-year-old infielder, has bounced between Triple-A Indianapolis and the majors, where he’s been playing with some regularity since late July; in 58 PA, he’s hit .208/.276/.453.

Six other Pirates have a wRC+ in the 90s:

Pirates’ Leading Hitters by wRC+
Player PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+
Liover Peguero 61 .214 .279 .446 98
Nick Gonzales 272 .281 .324 .391 98
Tommy Pham 340 .263 .335 .373 97
Spencer Horwitz 298 .257 .326 .375 95
Joey Bart 272 .248 .353 .321 95
Andrew McCutchen 441 .238 .328 .368 95
Bryan Reynolds 517 .245 .304 .402 94
Oneil Cruz* 454 .207 .304 .398 92
* Currently on Injured List

So close… and yet so far. This from a team that had four regulars and one cup-of-coffee guy finish with a mark of 100 or better last season, and that according to our Depth Charts preseason projections figured to have five above-average producers in Horwitz (119), Cruz (115), Reynolds (114), Jack Suwinski (105), and Gonzales (104). Peguero actually had the lowest mark of the 19 Pirates projected, at 76, but there he is atop the leaderboard thanks to the small sample. None of the other 16 Pirates who’ve taken at least one plate appearance for the team this season have a wRC+ higher than 85, and five have at least 100 plate appearances and a wRC+ of 65 or lower, namely Jared Triolo (65), the since-traded Ke’Bryan Hayes (57), Suwinski (56), Alexander Canario (54), and Henry Davis (47). As a team, Pittsburgh ranks second-to-last in the majors with an 80 wRC+, one point ahead of the Rockies. It’s grim.

Some of this may owe simply to bad luck, apart from the kind that felled Cruz, who suffered a concussion last week due to a collision with Suwinski and is ramping up toward a return. A comparison between the Pirates’ actual and expected wOBAs shows that 15 of their 24 hitters are falling short of their expected numbers by at least 30 points, and all but four (including the since-traded Adam Frazier) are short by at least one point. The three players who are on pace to finish with the 502 plate appearances needed to qualify for the batting title — who incidentally have the three lowest wRC+ marks in the table above — are each 35 to 40 points of wOBA off the pace. Peguero is an outlier in the other direction, and the team’s 26-point shortfall is the largest in the majors:

At the time one of our readers called my attention to this team-wide statistical oddity during this week’s chat, Peguero had an OPS+ of 100 according to Baseball Reference. After my attempts to dig deeper to determine if this was a major league first via B-Ref’s Stathead hit a dead end, I turned to our developer, Sean Dolinar, to run a wRC+-flavored query on our own database. I chose to limit the selection to AL and NL teams from the 20th and 21st centuries, which left a pool of 11 teams with two or fewer players with a 100 wRC+ or better, regardless of playing time:

AL/NL Teams with Fewest Hitters with a wRC+ of at Least 100
Team Season wRC+ ≥100 @ 1 PA wRC+ ≥100 @ Qual
Pittsburgh Pirates 2025 0 0
Brooklyn Superbas 1908 1 1
Seattle Mariners 1980 1 1
Minnesota Twins 1981* 1 0
Colorado Rockies 2020* 1 1
Boston Beaneaters 1901 2 0
Philadelphia Athletics 1921 2 2
Chicago White Sox 1942 2 1
Oakland Athletics 1979 2 1
Boston Red Sox 1994* 2 1
Chicago White Sox 2024 2 0
Since 1901. Qualification based on modern definition (3.1 plate appearances per team game).
* = shortened season

Two of those teams hail from strike-shortened seasons and another from the pandemic-shortened one, so sample sizes are not surprisingly a factor. Still, this testifies to the rarity of the Pirates’ failure. To minimize some clutter, here are the hitters from those teams in question who broke through:

Hitters with a 100 wRC+ on Teams with the Fewest Such Hitters
Player Team Season PA AVG OBP SLG wRC+
Whitey Witt* PHA 1921 726 .315 .390 .418 105
Wally Moses* CHW 1942 652 .270 .353 .369 105
Tilly Walker* PHA 1921 640 .304 .389 .504 121
Bruce Bochte* SEA 1980 603 .300 .381 .456 123
Tim Jordan* BRO 1908 588 .247 .328 .371 127
Dave Revering* OAK 1979 513 .288 .334 .483 120
Dwayne Murphy OAK 1979 489 .255 .387 .387 118
Mo Vaughn* BOS 1994 463 .310 .408 .576 140
Billy Hamilton BSN 1901 425 .287 .404 .356 122
John Valentin BOS 1994 355 .316 .400 .505 130
Taffy Wright CHW 1942 353 .333 .432 .410 139
Tommy Pham CHW 2024 297 .266 .330 .380 104
Trevor Story* COL 2020 259 .289 .355 .519 117
Roy Smalley MIN 1981 200 .263 .375 .443 131
Kid Nichols BSN 1901 175 .282 .316 .491 118
Yoán Moncada CHW 2024 45 .275 .356 .400 118
* = Qualified for league batting title (3.1 plate appearances per team game).

It’s worth taking a quick breeze through these other teams. For a change, I’ll work backwards chronologically.

2024 White Sox

The team that set a modern single-season record for losses (121) had two non-qualifiers clear the 100 wRC+ bar, namely Pham, who was traded to the Cardinals in the Tommy Edman/Erick Fedde three-way swap and then picked up on waivers by the Royals on August 31, and Moncada, who was limited to 12 games due to a left adductor strain. Three other players came close: Zach Remillard (.242/.342/.333, 98 wRC+ in 39 PA), Andrew Vaughn (.246/.297/.402, 97 wRC+ in 619 PA), and Paul DeJong (.228/.275/.430, 97 wRC+ in 363 PA), the last of whom who was dealt to the Royals near the deadline. The team-wide wRC+ of 75 is in a virtual tie for the lowest of this bunch.

2020 Rockies

Story played in 59 out 60 games for the Rockies (26-34) in what still stands as the last season in which he stayed off the IL. Two of the three regulars who came close to a 100 wRC+ — Raimel Tapia (96 wRC+ in 206 PA) and Charlie Blackmon (97 wRC+ in 247 PA) — stayed similarly busy. Midseason acquisition Kevin Pillar missed by a single point (99 wRC+ in 97 PA) after being acquired from the Red Sox at the August 31 deadline.

1994 Red Sox

In the year of the players’ strike that canceled the World Series, the Red Sox had Roger Clemens, Mo Vaughn (their first baseman), Valentin (their shortstop), and not much else of note; they went 54-61 under manager Butch Hobson. Left fielder Mike Greenwell finished with a 99 wRC+, and third baseman Scott Cooper (their lone All-Star) and second baseman Tim Naehring both finished at 95.

1981 Twins

In the year of the split-season strike, the Twins ended up with the AL’s second-worst record overall (41-68) and a reputation as “unwatchable.” Smalley, a former All-Star shortstop, was excellent when available but dogged by back problems that sent him to the disabled list twice and limited him to 56 games. Four other Twins — Dave Engle, Ron Jackson (who was traded to the Tigers in August), John Castino (a former Rookie of the Year who himself would be limited by back problems), and Gary Ward — finished in the 92–97 wRC+ range, though only Castino and Mickey Hatcher (77 wRC+) made enough plate appearances to qualify for the batting title.

1980 Mariners

In their fourth year of existence, the Mariners were still a brutally bad ballclub, one whose 59-103 record stands as the second worst in franchise history. Bochte, their first baseman, had been their lone All-Star in 1979. His production receded a bit in 1980, but he was still miles ahead of Seattle’s other hitters, including regular outfielders Tom Paciorek and Leon Roberts and call-up Reggie Walton, all of whom finished with a 95 wRC+.

1979 Athletics

This edition of the A’s, which finished 54-108, was so unsightly that it drew only 306,763 fans to the Coliseum all season, the fewest in any of their non-pandemic years in Oakland; on April 17 against the Mariners, the official attendance was just 653, and on September 18 it was just 750. While the A’s did call up rookie Rickey Henderson in late June, he hit for just a 91 wRC+. Murphy, their center fielder, and Revering, their first baseman, were the only hitters with a wRC+ above third baseman Wayne Gross’ 94.

1942 White Sox

These White Sox were managed to a 66-82 record by Jimmy Dykes, who played for the 1921 A’s (see below). Wright, their left fielder, and Moses, their right fielder, both had decent seasons; the former, despite playing just 85 games before being drafted into the Army in August, even received a smattering of support in the MVP balloting. Hall of Fame shortstop Luke Appling had an uncharacteristically subpar season, hitting .262/.342/.341 (95 wRC+); he would win the AL batting title at age 36 the next year while helping the White Sox rebound to an 82-72 record.

1921 Athletics

From 1910–14, the A’s won three World Series and an additional pennant, but finances led manager/owner Connie Mack to dismantle its famous “$100,000 Infield,” which consisted of first baseman Stuffy McInnis, second baseman Eddie Collins (a Hall of Famer), shortstop Jack Barry, and third baseman Frank “Home Run” Baker (also a Hall of Famer). For that sin, the A’s finished last in an eight-team league for seven straight seasons, this being the last of them. They went 53-100 while Walker, their left fielder, and Witt, their right fielder, both had very good seasons. Dykes, who as their second baseman led the league with 155 games played (including ties), just missed clearing the league-average bar, finishing with a 99 wRC+ in 701 plate appearances.

1908 Superbas

The team that later became the Dodgers was more super-bad (53-101) than superb. Jordan, who led the NL with 12 homers that year (his second such title in three seasons) was by far Brooklyn’s best player. The Superbas had three regulars finish with a wRC+ in the 92–96 range, with outfielder/second baseman John Hummel (96 wRC+ in 642 PA) the closest near-miss.

1901 Beaneaters

Somehow this team (later known as the Braves) both finished with the best record of any of these 11 (69-69) and in a virtual tie with last year’s White Sox for the lowest wRC+ of this group (75). The two hitters who produced at an above-average level were both Hall of Famers, namely Slidin’ Billy Hamilton, who’s currently credited with 914 steals, third all-time (Ty Cobb was recognized as the record holder at the time Lou Brock surpassed him in 1977) and Nichols — a pitcher! Hamilton, who was in the final year of his 14-year major league career, qualified for the batting title under the rules of the day, which required players to appear in 60% of a team’s games (140 in this case). Nichols, who was in his 12th and final season with Boston — a stretch during which he had a slight statistical edge on Cy Young himself — was sometimes used as a pinch-hitter, outfielder, or first baseman that year in addition to his pitching duties. Four other players had a wRC+ between 92 and 99, though the one who missed by a single point had just 59 plate appearances, namely rookie outfielder Pat Carney.

Woof, that’s some pretty bad company. Can the Pirates avoid joining or surpassing them? Our projections still give them a shot. According to our rest-of-season Depth Charts projections, Horwitz is forecast for a 113 wRC+, with Cruz (108), Reynolds (107) and Gonzales (103) joining him among the above-average group. That should give Pittsburgh a fighting chance, but if none of these four players make it, well, this team might be remembered for something besides squandering a Cy Young-winning season from Paul Skenes.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

5 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
MarkZMember since 2016
1 hour ago

This isn’t data based so I accept numbers may show otherwise but it seems like certain ballparks consistently are translated higher for offense than they should be. Pittsburgh, seattle, Colorado always seem to have harsher penalties for hitters when the home team is looked at. It also could be these teams are quite bad at developing offensive talent, or some combination of both.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
52 minutes ago
Reply to  MarkZ

It is always hard to model park effects and what you are describing is some of the more extreme parks in one direction or the other.

In the case of the Mariners it really does seem to be a park effect, but the Pirates and Rockies are especially bad at developing hitters. For the Pirates that looks like them scoring zero runs because their park suppresses offense, but the Rockies park juices it and so their run scoring looks almost normal.