AL All-Zero-to-Three Team
Last time, we looked at the top projected National League players with zero-to-three years of service time. Today, the American League.
(Note: Players signed to long-term contracts before they reach arbitration aren’t eligible. These players must all make the league minimum salary, or close to it, without a long-term commitment. Eligible players are those projected on Opening Day 25-man rosters by MLBDepthCharts.com.)
AMERICAN LEAGUE
Position: Player – Marcel Forecasted wOBA/FIP
Catcher: Carlos Santana (CLE) – .364 wOBA
First Base: Daric Barton (OAK) – .342 wOBA
Second Base: Gordon Beckham (CHW) – .331 wOBA
Shortstop: Elvis Andrus (TEX) – .320 wOBA
Third Base: Danny Valencia (MIN) – .346 wOBA
Left Field: Brett Gardner (NYY) – .341 wOBA
Center Field: Austin Jackson (DET) – .341 wOBA
Right Field: Matt Joyce (TB) – .347 wOBA
Designated Hitter: Mitch Moreland (TEX) – .347 wOBA
Bench: John Jaso (TB) (.338 wOBA), Cliff Pennington (OAK) (.319 wOBA), Julio Borbon (TEX) (.322 wOBA), Will Rhymes (DET) (.330 wOBA), Brent Morel (CHW) (.330 wOBA), Travis Snider (TOR) (.338 wOBA)
Starting Pitcher: Clay Buchholz (BOS) – 3.91 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Justin Masterson (CLE) – 3.94 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Kyle Drabek (TOR) – 3.95 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Gio Gonzalez (OAK) – 3.96 FIP
Starting Pitcher: Doug Fister (SEA) – 3.96 FIP
Bullpen: Neftali Feliz (TEX) (3.25 FIP), Andrew Bailey (OAK) (3.39 FIP), Kevin Jepsen (LAA) (3.48 FIP), Daniel Bard (BOS) (3.56 FIP), Jordan Walden (LAA) (3.69 FIP), Sergio Santos (CHW) (3.69 FIP)
A few comments:
–Four A’s make the cut, but just one starting pitcher (Gio Gonzalez) is among them. Blame Marcel not believing Trevor Cahill’s batted ball results were for real (projected 4.31 FIP) and Brett Anderson failing to grab the role of undisputed pre-arb ace (projected 3.45 FIP) because the A’s wisely locked him last April, after just over one season of service time. Oakland is young, and potentially good.
–The Rays get a lot of hype for their young starting pitching, but Marcel’s not buying it, projecting FIP results over 4.00 for both Wade Davis and Jeremy Hellickson (David Price doesn’t qualify because he signed a major league deal when he was drafted). Any fielding-independent projections are going to necessarily ding Rays pitchers, because much of their pitching success is due to their perennially solid defense. Matt Garza’s move to the Cubs will be an interesting test; NL competition, but no more Rays vacuum cleaners behind him, plus a much tougher park for pitchers.
–Four Rangers make the squad, not counting underrated set-up man Alexi Ogando, who just missed. The lineup, meanwhile, is stacked with players in their prime, including Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Ian Kinsler, and Adrian Beltre. No Cliff Lee, and the rotation is now terribly shallow. But the Rangers still have a great chance to repeat as AL West champs.
–The team everyone’s picking to win the AL pennant, the Red Sox, places just two players on the team, set-up man Daniel Bard. That’s a testament to the many star players Boston has at or near peak age. Still, it’s always nice to have some youth and upside on the roster, especially as insurance against injuries or regression by older talent. The good news is the Red Sox do have solid hedges for their two biggest lineup risks: Jed Lowrie’s (projected .336 wOBA) standing by in case Marco Scutaro turns into a pumpkin, and Ryan Kalish (projected .338 wOBA) is one of several young outfielders who could spell J.D. Drew if the right fielder’s hamstring problems persist.
Jonah Keri is the author of The Extra 2%: How Wall Street Strategies Took a Major League Baseball Team from Worst to First -- now a National Bestseller! Follow Jonah on Twitter @JonahKeri, and check out his awesome podcast.
WOah Hellickson and Matusz under Doug “Double” Fister?
I believe even Marcels has Matusz at 3.92 (FIP) which would put him 2nd on the starting pitching list. And like others have mentioned Marcels is probably not the best projection system to use for players with minimal MLB stats, especially Hellickson. Here are the three projections on Fangraphs for Hellickson (FIP)
Marcel: 4.08
ZIPS: 3.58
Fans: 3.52
Bill James: 3.45
This team will be significantly weaker without Hellickson in the rotation.
vr, Xeifrank
Matusz signed a major league deal.
I mentioned the Rays defense possibly playing a role in making defense-independent projections look weak(er) for Rays starters. Suspect Marcel also considers AL East in its FIP projections. It’s the toughest division to pitch in by a significant margin, and FIP does not (as far as I know, anyway) adjust for that.
Thus Fister beats Hellickson and Matusz, even though the latter two obviously look like much better long-term picks on a competition- and park-neutral neutral basis.
Correct me if I’m wrong, but doesn’t Marcel also not work well for players with little or no Major League experience, due to it not using minor league stats? So guys like Hellickson aren’t really getting accurate projections if you’re basing this on Marcel.
Santana over Wieters?
Without a doubt
2 Red Sox made the list – you’ve got Buchholz down as being on San Diego.
Fixed the Red Sox thing, thanks.
Sean: Marcel doesn’t like Wieters at all, projected .320 wOBA. Which, considering his results in his first 2 seasons in the majors, it’ not unreasonable to downgrade him, at least for the immediate future. (Though I’m with you, think he’ll be fine longer-term.)
–The team everyone’s picking to win the AL pennant, the Red Sox, places just two players on the team, set-up man Daniel Bard.
You say two but only list one. Guess you’re still convinced that Buchholz is on San Diego.
Since when did Clay Buchholz change teams?
I will run a sim tonight of NL Zero to Three vs AL Zero to Three. That way the roster can iron itself out in the comments.
What about Phil Hughes?
I don’t think Hughes qualifies, too much service time.
Wow. The NL certainly appears to have the better young talent.
While, it’s likely not enough difference to shift the “balance of power”, but it can’t hurt.
The Rays screwed over the AL team with those LTCs to Price and Longoria.
How come Jed Lowrie didn’t make the team?
How did you treat cases like Brian Duensing? Marcel obviously predicts a split role between the pen and rotation again w/ fairly good results (4.00 FIP).
Duensing’s projected FIP wouldn’t crack top 5 in rotation or top 6 in bullpen, so no issue. James McDonald also has a similar pretty solid projection largely due to getting the benefit of ample bullpen time. (Though I like McDonald a lot)
Lowrie didn’t make the team because I generally tried to favor starters, or at least players likely to play more often than not. But yes, he’d be a great addition.
I’m surprised that Brett Cecil couldn’t crack this squad.
What about Ricky Romero? (2 years)
5 year deal = disqualified
Oh whoops, didn’t see that. Thanks
we can discount Ricky Romero for his team-friendly contract, but I don’t really get the point. Marcel projects him as better than any of those 5 SPs.
point is: these guys make the min salary with only a one-yr committment. they are cheapo even compared to a reasonable deal like romero’s. (-different brendan)
but i’m pretty sure romero makes close to the min salary next year, and its not like he’s going to be released afterwards, just like these other pitchers.
i understand it’s a ridiculous point to argue, because who really cares, but i’m slightly confused
Matusz is disqualified for being on a major league contract (and thus not making league minimum), not for his projection.
Now the real question is; Would you take this roster over any roster in baseball?
Do you mean “any” or “every”? This team is obviously better than several teams out there, as we’re looking at a pitching staff (judged by FIP) in the top 5-10 of MLB and an offense in the same area as well (by wOBA). Combine that with oodles of good-to-great fielders and tons of depth on both sides of the roster and this team looks like one of the top teams in the regular season, but they may be hurt in the playoffs by lack of star power, especially in the rotation.
Assuming you mean ignoring contracts and just as a 1-year experiment. If I was starting a new franchise and was given the option of having this team or taking the roster of another team, I would choose this in a heartbeat. Wouldn’t even blink.
The “NL Zero to Three” roster done late last week would probably be the 2nd best team in the NL (1. Phillies). My simulation showed the Phillies beating the NZt3 team on average between 52 and 53 percent of the time.
From the looks of it, the AZt3 team doesn’t look as strong as the NZt3 team. I will run a head to head sim of the two make believe teams tonight.
If there is a consensus on a league average American League team, I can run the AZt3 team against them too (Angels?).
Simulation Results
NL Zero to Three
vs
AL Zero to Three
See which team is stronger.
And for a reference, the AL Zero to Three team matched up against the LA Angels (a likely .500 team) won 51.77% of the games on average. So this AL Zero to Three team would be slightly better than a league average AL team. The NL Zero to Three team likely 2nd best in the NL, trailing only the Phillies.
Hello Everyone, First time poster and glad to be a part of the threaded!