ALDS Coverage: Papelbon Blows Save

Sometimes unlikely results are the sweetest. For Boston, the script played out like so many times in the past. Jonathan Papelbon entered, prevented further damage, and returned in the ninth to finish the game and force at least one more game.

Trailing by two, the Angels were scheduled to send Maicer Izturis (.359 OBP this season), Mike Napoli (.350), and Erick Aybar (.353) to the dish. Mike Scioscia did Boston a favor by pinch-hitting for Napoli with the ever so useless Gary Matthews Jr., who quickly recorded out number two. Aybar then came up and singled on a 0-2 fastball. Keep that pitch type in mind, because it’ll come up again, and again, and once more … well 20-something times more, but you knew that.

Eventually things snowball and Vladimir Guerrero ends up singling in the tying and go-ahead run after an intentional walk to Torii Hunter. Enter Hideki Okajima, exit Boston and Papelbon with his -.797 WPA. It looked like this:

The three main talking points of the ninth inning will be:

1. Jonathan Papelbon’s pitch selection
2. Jacoby Ellsbury’s positioning
3. Terry Francona’s patience

Gameday classifies 28 pitches from Papelbon as fastballs. Those four non-fastballs each came well after a run of 26 straight fastballs. Papelbon didn’t throw a pitch that went slower than 90 miles per hour until pitch 27. His final pitch of the afternoon would of course be a fastball and would result in the lead changing hands. Papelbon used said fastball a career high amount of the time despite the pitch having a career low in run value. It’s fair to say opposing teams should look fastball against Papelbon. To be fair, Guerrero had a negative value against fastballs throughout the regular season as well. It comes down to simple game theory. Eventually Papelbon has to throw a non-fastball; otherwise coaches are going to clue the batters in to only look fastballs. Likewise, he has to throw consecutive fastballs or face a similar fate in predictability. Maybe you can argue 26 in a row was overkill, and from an outcome-based perspective you’re absolutely correct. Honestly, weren’t you a little surprised when he continued pumping fastballs?

This has the early vote for storyline most likely to be overlooked. Guerrero’s single plated two in part because Ellsbury was playing deep. Bobby Abreu isn’t the fastest runner in the world and Ellsbury doesn’t have a rocket launcher, but would the Angels have risked sending Abreu if Ellsbury was playing in his normal spot? Further, do the Sox even gain anything by playing Ellsbury deeper than normal? Maybe he stops a double from turning into a triple, but at this point in the game preserving the lead – or at worst a tie – seems more important than preventing the third run from scoring.

Some might suggest that today goes down as Francona’s Grady Little moment. Hs job is and should be safe, but the stubbornness displayed by sticking with Papelbon will probably be critiqued by hindsight artists. The idea of forecasting starting pitchers and their “sharpness” through the first nine batters faced was summed up by saying you couldn’t tell if a pitcher was on based on the first nine, but you could tell if they were off. Outside of the first batter he faced, Papelbon looked fine, my prediction is that those outs won’t stop people from calling for Okajima to face Abreu.

More analysis on the Sox elimination and next steps tomorrow.