And Now, a Mess of Minor MLB Moves

This week may be Prospects Week here at FanGraphs, but for MLB, this has been Minor Signings Week. The long offseason dance is just about over, and everyone’s now at risk of going to homecoming alone. So rather than a long spiel that sees me reference a historical battle or obscure 18th-century literature, let’s get straight to the moves.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Arizona signed Asdrúbal Cabrera to a one-year, $1.75 million deal over the weekend. At 35, his days of teams pretending he can play shortstop are probably in the past for good, but he’ll get some time at second and third base. Just how much time likely depends on how Arizona eventually decides to answer the center field question; if Ketel Marte does, in fact, end up mostly playing in the outfield, Cabrera’s likely the largest beneficiary. I can’t say Cabrera’s arrival is a particularly positive development for Josh Rojas, who was probably the player whose role is most usurped by his arrival.

Baltimore Orioles

I wish I could be more optimistic, as a Baltimore native, about Matt Harvey going to Charm City on a non-roster deal, but we’re now going on six years since he was last an effective pitcher. But then again, if Daniel Bard can resurface after so long, maybe there’s still hope? The Orioles don’t have a lot to lose, and with the minor leagues being a thing in 2021, it’s less of an issue if he gets some innings over someone like Zac Lowther or Michael Baumann.

Boston Red Sox

It was a quiet addition, but the Red Sox signed Hirokazu Sawamura to a two-year deal worth $3 million with a mutual option for a third season. All told, he can max out at just under $8 million, and the guarantee is enough that I think he’s on the roster in April. His fastball can make it to the upper-90s, and he has a solid splitter, so this isn’t a case of Boston taking a chance on a performer with fringe stuff. The Red Sox may have a shockingly decent bullpen in 2021, though I’m not bullish on the team as a whole.

Chicago White Sox

Mike Wright returns from the KBO on a minor-league deal, but unlike a lot of pitchers coming back home to the States, he didn’t perform particularly well in Korea. Still, 2020 was good for him since he was actually playing competitive baseball rather than waiting to see if the minors were going to be a thing, but I don’t see him as having a path to making the team, short of a lot of spring injuries. Connor Sadzeck, also a non-roster invitee, strikes me as having a better shot; if he can still hit 97 mph with his fastball, he simply has more tantalizing upside as a flier than Wright does.

 

Cincinnati Reds

Cam Bedrosian not getting a guaranteed deal kind of surprises me, and he has interesting upside for Reds. His missing time with an adductor strain — which, with my limited medical knowledge, means he either injured his groin or is a scallop — isn’t a likely factor here. He’s still in his 20s, and his small-sample-size 2020 doesn’t wipe out the fact that he had a FIP under four in three of the preceding four years. The tricky thing is Cincinnati’s option situation. Jeff Hoffman, Sal Romano, and José De León are all out of options, so a trade may have to happen for Lil’ Bedrock to make the pen. I do think he spends 2020 in the majors, whether here or somewhere else.

Cleveland

Blake Parker’s minor-league deal will pay him $2.5 million if he makes the team. It’s too bad that he’s not left-handed — Cleveland’s very thin there — but I think he likely has an advantage in a job fight with pitchers like Cam Hill or Phil Maton, who have options remaining. I’d prefer Maton fairly easily if it comes down to that, and working against Parker is the fact that Cleveland has become increasingly resistant to the concept of paying money to baseball players.

Billy Hamilton also got an invitation to camp, and I think his status as likely the best defensive centerfield among Cleveland’s options gives him a chance to establish a niche role on the roster. Also in his favor is the fact that MLB is still using the weird extra-inning runner rule in 2021, giving Hamilton an additional tactical use. If he gets more than 150 plate appearances, something’s gone wrong in Cleveland.

 

Colorado Rockies

The Rockies signed C.J. Cron to a minor league contract, and I have to say: I absolutely love this deal. Yes, I double-checked that this was the Rockies before making that statement. Ryan McMahon is quite obviously going to be at third base, and Cron has shown serious power potential at times in the past. ZiPS and THE BAT are on the same side of this projection squabble versus Steamer, with the former systems seeing him as essentially a league-average first baseman. Coors Field might make Cron look like a star while having a 1.5-WAR season, at which time I see the Rockies signing him to a very confusing extension. What’s good news for fantasy players is probably bad news for Greg Bird, who is much less exciting.

Detroit Tigers

I have had a near-fetish for putting Nomar Mazara on my preseason breakout list, but at this point, I think I’m over it. As impressive as he can look when he crushes a pitch, he just doesn’t do it often enough. He’s been in the majors since 2016 and is still a month away from his 26th birthday, but he’s shown little meaningful improvement at any aspect of the game. In some respects, like his plate discipline, he’s actually backslid somewhat. If there’s any sunny part of his profile, it’s that he could still theoretically join the launch angle revolution; it’s better late than never, and it’s odd for a player whose main lure is power potential seemingly to focus on driving the ball into the ground. If Eric Hosmer can reform, so can (possibly) Mazara.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Matt Davidson will be in camp for the Dodgers, but it’s hard to see him making the team as either a hitter or a pitcher. He had moments of brief effectiveness for the White Sox, but Edwin Ríos, who I’d much prefer to have on my team, is already not looking to get much playing time as things are currently. The same goes with Sheldon Neuse, so if Davidson stays in the organization, it’s most likely at Triple-A. I don’t think his ability to pitch is likely to be highly valued by the Dodgers; if he continues with that, he probably needs to prove it against minor-league hitting.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins acquired Dylan Floro from the Dodgers for pitchers Alex Vesia and Kyle Hurt, in a move that strikes me as a real noodle-scratcher from Miami’s perspective. Yes, Floro was a perfectly serviceable reliever for the Dodgers the last few years, but you can say pretty much the same for Cam Bedrosian or Tommy Hunter, both players who signed simply for tickets to spring training. The Dodgers rarely used Floro in anything resembling a high-leverage situation and didn’t enter a single game in 2020 at a point where the game’s leverage index was even 1.5. While Vesia was only the Marlins’ 21st-ranked prospect on our list for the team last year, even that’s likely too much to give up for a decent mop-up reliever. I’m not necessarily against Miami trading some of their organizational depth, but it’s hard to be too excited for moves that don’t really address the team’s more pressing concerns.

 

Milwaukee Brewers

You know things haven’t gone well when you’re the son of an All-Star and the Blue Jays sour on you. Travis Shaw was absolutely dreadful in 2019, and while somewhat better last year, it still paled in comparison to the 7.4 WAR he amassed during his 2017–18 peak. He turns 31 early in the season, but his best performances are still recent enough that a minor-league deal is extraordinarily low-risk. I know we have Shaw splitting time with Luis Urías on our depth charts, but I remain skeptical. It’s understandable to wonder about Milwaukee’s commitment to Urías given their flirtations with Justin Turner, but Daniel Robertson strikes me as a fairly difficult obstacle to making the team thanks to his ability to play shortstop. Shaw does have upside remaining, even if 2019 and ’20 suggest against that.

Brad Boxberger also will play for the Brewers this spring, and while his emoji game is strong (as the first player in major league history to have one as his name back on Player’s Weekend a few years ago), his control game is not. I personally think Milwaukee has better options here, though Boxberger will resurface elsewhere in all likelihood.

 

New York Mets

It would be fair to give a mulligan to Brad Brach for a poor 2020 showing given his summer fight with COVID-19. That being said, the Mets are contenders, and even for the downside risk of Brach, whose control has always been on the spotty side, $2 million was too much for him to make the roster, so he was cut despite the salary guarantee. He’ll latch onto another team and get some time this spring, but he’s unlikely to make a major league team if his velocity hasn’t returned.

Tommy Hunter is one of the players who could take Brach’s role with the Mets, and like with Bedrosian, I’m surprised that he didn’t score a major league contract. Hunter doesn’t touch 96 mph anymore, but he’s never finished a season with a FIP above four since being converted to relief by the Orioles in days of yore. You can also add Mike Montgomery to the spring training invitations, and I think he actually has a decent shot at making the roster; if a pitcher is injured, I’d much rather look at Montgomery than move Seth Lugo out of the pen. It hasn’t been that long since he was an effective pitcher for the Cubs.

 

New York Yankees

Yankee Stadium would be a good home for Jay Bruce’s left-handed power, but his chances at making the team are hampered by his lack of ability to play center field. At 34, I think expecting a repeat of his .254/.324/.508 season in 2017 with the Mets is a stretch, but without any real defensive value, that’s kind of what he would have to do to contribute. I also don’t think his presence, at this stage of his career, has an effect on whether Brett Gardner returns to the Yankees; Bruce just isn’t that valuable at this point.

Robinson Chirinos also got an invitation to camp, but it’s an uphill climb with the Yankees sticking with Gary Sánchez for the moment and Kyle Higashioka likely having an ironclad grip on the No. 2 spot.

 

Philadelphia Phillies

Jeff Mathis‘ non-roster invitation will earn him $1.8 million if he goes north with the Phillies. He’s coming off a multi-year deal with the Rangers, but his defense was generally middling in Texas, a problem for a player who gets literally all his value from defense. Mathis had an interesting career path, going from a prospect mainly valued for his offensive ability to a glove specialist. I would be surprised if he beat out Andrew Knapp for the privilege of backing up J.T. Realmuto, so I think he’s in camp mainly to work with pitchers and audition for a job elsewhere.

Travis Jankowski also gets a ticket to camp, but he’d likely have to beat out Roman Quinn or Adam Haseley to play for the Phillies in April, and while I’m rather bearish on both, I don’t think he’s a threat to do that.

 

San Francisco Giants

Nick Tropeano signed a minor-league contract with heavy incentives if he makes the roster. Aaron Sanchez also signing probably limits Tropeano’s path to making the team as a starter, but there may be an early-season opportunity for him to be the final man out of the bullpen, as neither John Brebbia nor Tyler Beede will be ready at the start of the season.

St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Szczur is heading to camp for St. Louis, but as much as I appreciate someone with more confusing Zs in their last name than me, I think he’s likely filling out the spring roster. He did hit .322/.390/.577 for Triple-A Reno in 2019, but pretty much everyone hit like that in the Pacific Coast League during that season’s offensive explosion. Lane Thomas provides more versatility to the Cards and Austin Dean more offensive upside, so I suspect Szczur is heading to the minors in March.

Washington Nationals

T.J. McFarland signed a minor-league contract, and I expect that he has an uphill battle to make the Nats. The bullpen is not particularly deep, but a soft-tosser who doesn’t have a killer out pitch or a real ability to cause weak contact isn’t a particularly compelling back-of-pen option. Most likely, he’ll be at Triple-A Rochester as a possible injury reinforcement.