Another AL East Clash: Yankees vs. Blue Jays ALDS Preview

On Thursday, the New York Yankees became the first team to win a Wild Card Series after losing the first game of the best-of-three since the new playoff format was introduced in 2022. After dispatching the Boston Red Sox in the Wild Card, the Yanks have a matchup against another AL East foe lined up for the ALDS. For their part, the Toronto Blue Jays desperately needed their first-round bye to get their roster healthy after a breakneck final month of the season. These two teams finished 2025 with identical 94-68 records. The division race came down to the regular season’s final day, and the Jays only took the AL East crown thanks to a 8-5 head-to-head record against New York.

These division rivals are well acquainted with each other, though this will be the first time the two teams have met in the playoffs. (That’s pretty wild considering the Yankees’ long postseason history. There are now just three teams they haven’t faced in the playoffs: the White Sox, Nationals, and Rockies.) Their identical win totals during the regular season provide the primary storyline in this series: These are two evenly matched clubs battling for a spot in the ALCS.

Coming off a hot finish to the regular season, which saw them win 11 of their last 12 games, and now a dramatic series victory over the Red Sox, the Yankees have quite a bit of momentum heading into this series. Still, because that Wild Card Series went the full three games, New York will be at a bit of a disadvantage to start this series. Max Fried won’t be fully rested until Sunday’s Game 2, which means either Will Warren or Luis Gil will have to take the mound in Game 1. Thanks to the off days during the middle of next week, New York will have the option to reslot Carlos Rodón and Cam Schlittler depending on how the first two games of the series go, then have Fried ready to go in a potentially decisive Game 5.

After returning from a lat strain in August, Gil enjoyed some mixed success over the final two months of the season and then was left off the Yankees’ Wild Card roster. His 3.32 ERA looked good on the surface, but a 4.63 FIP, 4.78 xERA, and 5.65 xFIP all painted a much more worrying picture. Gil won the AL Rookie of the Year award last year with an approach that could best be described as controlled chaos. A high strikeout rate and a penchant for inducing weak contact covered for his extremely high walk rate. This season, his walk rate was a bit higher, but his strikeout rate dropped by 10 points and his BABIP increased by nearly 20 points. He still managed to navigate all that traffic on the basepaths, but I’m not sure the Yankees want to trust him with a Game 1 start.

Warren, on the other hand, had a solid rookie campaign after making the Opening Day rotation out of spring training. He sort of dealt with the opposite problem as Gil; his peripherals all pointed to a strong skill set, but the top-line results lagged a bit behind. Even though his strikeout-to-walk ratio looked good, Warren really struggled with runners on base; his wOBA allowed jumped by more than 40 points once a batter reached. The Jays also handed Warren one of his worst starts of the season back on July 2 when they scored seven first-inning runs off of him.

There aren’t any easy answers for Yankees manager Aaron Boone when picking a Game 1 starter, but the rest of the rotation should be fine. Fried turned in a fantastic scoreless start in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series and Schlittler just produced one of the sport’s most dominant postseason starts by a rookie in Game 3. Rodón looked a little shaky in his Game 2 start, but the Yankees aren’t going to turn away from one of their workhorses at this point in the season.

By virtue of their first-round bye, the Blue Jays have the luxury of slotting their rotation as they see fit, though the first two starters aren’t likely to be a surprise. Kevin Gausman turned in a fantastic season this year, though it was also a bit of a bounce-back campaign for him after he struggled in 2024. The key for him, as it has been since his big breakout in 2020, is the interaction between his four-seam fastball and his splitter. If he’s locating his heater well and keeping his splitter below the zone, the two-pitch combo is pretty difficult to square up. Indeed, his wOBA allowed off his fastball fell by more than 50 points this year, while his offspeed pitch was as effective as ever at generating both swings and misses and groundball contact.

Acquired from the Guardians at the trade deadline, Shane Bieber is lined up to start Game 2. The former Cy Young winner blew out his elbow in April 2024 and only returned to a big league mound in late August. A deep postseason run is exactly why the Blue Jays acquired Bieber, though his return from Tommy John surgery hasn’t come without its hurdles. The good news is that his 5.29 strikeout-to-walk ratio looks fantastic, his command looks like it’s as good as it’s ever been, and his fastball is sitting at 92.6 mph, back to where it was in 2021 and a tick above where it sat in 2022 and 2023. The bad news is that he was a bit homer prone during his seven starts in the regular season. That caused his FIP to spike nearly a run higher than his ERA, and his batted ball peripherals are showing some worrying red flags. He allowed a huge 12.3% barrel rate — that’s the source of all those home runs — and his 48.2% hard-hit rate was pretty elevated too. Depending on which ERA estimator you prefer, Bieber was either fantastic (3.35 xFIP, 3.52 SIERA) or pretty lucky (4.47 FIP, 4.58 xERA) in his abbreviated season.

With Gausman and Bieber a strong one-two punch, the Jays face a much more difficult choice when deciding on their starters for Games 3 and 4. You would expect the veteran experience of Max Scherzer would give him a leg up on rookie Trey Yesavage, but the youngster quickly acclimated to the big leagues after being called up on September 15. Chris Bassitt could also be an option, as it looks like he’s recovered from the back injury that sidelined him towards the end of the regular season. Scherzer is far from the ace that helped lead the 2019 Nationals to a World Series victory, and he’s not even the workhorse that helped the 2023 Rangers win a championship. He battled a thumb issue this year and posted an uncharacteristically high 5.19 ERA and 4.99 FIP in 17 starts. His postseason history is legendary, but he’s greatly diminished compared to his peak.

On the other end of the experience spectrum, Yesavage, who is in his first professional season after being drafted in the first round of the 2024 draft, could be in line to make a postseason start. He moved through four minor league levels this season before making his major league debut in September. He struck out 41.1% of the minor league batters he faced, and that swing-and-miss stuff has carried over to the game’s highest level. Even if Yesavage doesn’t make a traditional start, I’d expect him to play a significant role in Toronto’s pitching plans during this series. One option could be piggybacking a start with Scherzer, which would allow Bassitt to take a turn as a traditional starter.

Once the starters give way to the bullpens, the Blue Jays might hold a slight advantage, though neither relief unit is all that stout. The Yankees made a bunch of moves to upgrade their bullpen ahead of the trade deadline, bringing in David Bednar and Camilo Doval to supplement the offseason acquisitions of Devin Williams and Fernando Cruz. It was an up-and-down season for the entire New York ‘pen, and all those additions didn’t stabilize the group down the stretch. Luke Weaver blew a one-run lead in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, and Bednar allowed an insurance run to score in the ninth inning of that game as well. Williams and Cruz looked solid in their two relief appearances against Boston, and Bednar bounced back with two scoreless innings to close out Games 2 and 3.

Toronto’s relief corps also suffered through some ups-and-downs during the year, but it was a better unit across the whole season. Jeff Hoffman has been solid as their new closer, though he suffered through some struggles during a rough August; he blew three saves during that month. The team also took a while to filter through all their relief options to find their best pitchers to place into high-leverage roles. By the stretch run, it was trade deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez and converted starter Yariel Rodríguez acting as the setup men, with Brendon Little and his unhittable curveball acting as the fireman. That quartet at the back of the ‘pen was nails in September; Toronto’s relievers put up a 3.42 ERA and a 3.60 FIP, ninth and seventh best in baseball, respectively, during the final month of the season.

The Blue Jays also enter this series with a banged up lineup that was slumping pretty significantly in September. That offensive slide coincided with the injury to Bo Bichette on September 6, suffered in a violent crash at home plate against the Yankees no less. Prior to that date, Toronto had produced a 116 wRC+ and was scoring five runs per game; after Bichette was placed on the IL, the team’s wRC+ dropped to 87 and they scored just 4.3 runs per game over their final 20 games of the season. Despite working hard to ramp up his baseball activity this week, it’s likely Bichette will be left off Toronto’s ALDS roster. His absence could be a key difference-maker in the series.

While Bichette’s injury left a pretty big hole in the lineup, it wouldn’t have been as big of a problem if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a number of the Jays’ other key hitters hadn’t all slumped at the same time during the final month of the season:

Guerrero has only collected one extra-base hit since Bichette hit the IL, a double on September 21. That’s particularly worrying because his power output this year has fallen back to where it was during his troubling 2023 season. Thankfully, a resurgent George Springer has carried the Jays offense for much of the season. He’s crushing the ball again after adjusting his approach to be more selective and hunt fastballs, and his 166 wRC+ this season was a career high and the third-best mark in baseball. Despite being hampered by two separate IL stints, Daulton Varsho still managed to take a big step forward at the plate this year. After offseason rotator cuff surgery, he started swinging a lot harder this season, leading to a massive spike in his power output. His 123 wRC+ was a career high, and he blasted 20 home runs in just 71 games.

Elsewhere in the lineup, the Blue Jays welcomed back Anthony Santander at the end of September. After signing a big free agent contract during the offseason, the outfielder really struggled through his first few months in Toronto and then was sidelined for much of the summer with a shoulder injury. He’ll slot in towards the end of the lineup, though it’s pretty unclear what kind of production can be expected from him at this point.

With a pair of excellent left-handed pitchers in the Yankees rotation, platoons will be a big factor for the Blue Jays lineup. They have three positions that rotate depending on the handedness of the opposing pitcher, which means Toronto’s bench could play an outsized role in this series:

Addison Barger looked like he was in the midst of a breakout early in the year, but he cooled off significantly over the final few months of the season. Defensive wiz Andrés Giménez has been manning shortstop in Bichette’s absence, but he gives way to Davis Schneider when a left-hander is on the mound. These platoons allowed the Blue Jays to run a pretty neutral platoon split this year (.328 wOBA vs. LHP, .331 wOBA vs. RHP).

As for the Yankees lineup, they’re coming off a Wild Card Series where they scored eight runs across three games. In the postseason, where runs come at a premium, that’s not a terrible performance, but it’s a pretty big drop off from their regular season production. Aaron Judge and Anthony Volpe led the way with four hits apiece and Ben Rice had a big home run on Wednesday. Giancarlo Stanton (one double) and Jazz Chisholm Jr. (two singles) were mostly bottled up, though I’m sure Chisholm will appreciate facing Toronto’s rotation full of right-handed pitchers. The obvious player to key in on is Judge; he led the AL in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, wRC+, and WAR in one of the best batting seasons ever. Keeping him in check has to be priority number one for the Blue Jays, which means all the supporting hitters in the Yankees lineup need to pick up the slack.

The biggest differentiator between these two teams could be their defenses. The Blue Jays have one of the best team defenses in baseball, with Alejandro Kirk a standout behind the plate, and Varsho, Giménez, and Ernie Clement all among the best at their respective positions. In contrast, the Yankees defense has been shaky all season long, though it grades out around league average. Trent Grisham has been stretched a bit in center field and Volpe is going through it at shortstop. And then there are Judge’s throwing issues in right field since he suffered a elbow injury in late July. The Red Sox took advantage of his weakened arm in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series, and it seems likely that it will come up again this series. The Blue Jays also sport the lowest strikeout rate in the majors — they love to put the ball in play. That could put some additional strain on New York’s fielders, which could give Toronto the slight edge in a very tightly contested series.

On paper, these two teams look like they’re pretty evenly matched. Both teams had fantastic offenses during the regular season and the pitching staffs look comparable — the Yankees might have the edge in starting pitching but the Blue Jays might have the stronger bullpen. But when you look at the contours of each of their seasons, New York looks like it’s peaking at the right time while Toronto is facing some significant hurdles.