Are The Yankees Stealing Signs?
Last night, Yorvit Torrealba accused Andruw Jones of stealing signs from second base as the Yankees lit up Derek Holland. Holland’s final line (5 IP, 7 H, 6 R, 5 BB, 0 K, 2 HR) would support the idea that the Yankees knew what was coming before he threw it, but it would also support the idea that Holland just pitched really badly. So, to test the theory of whether the Yankees have seen a boost in offensive performance when they had a runner on second base (who could steal signs), I decided to look at the data.
Yankees, 2011:
Bases Empty: .256/.349/.436
Runner on First: .268/.320/.530
Runner on Second: .209/.355/.328
Runner on Third: .368/.403/.561
First and Second: .207/.261/.378
First and Third: .390/.415/.805
Second and Third: .171/.397/.371
With one runner on base, the Yankees have performed the worst if that runner is on second base. With two men on base, the Yankees have performed worst in the two situations where a runner is on second base. Their two best performances, by far, have come when they do not have a runner on second base.
This isn’t a definitive study, of course, but if the Yankees were stealing signs and that actually helped them hit, you’d expect to find some evidence of improved performance in that situation. That we find exactly the opposite, even in a small sample of data, suggests to me that Torrealba is either reacting to nothing or that sign stealing is a really terrible idea.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Maybe they ran these numbers as well, and just started stealing signs to try to combat their issues with runners on second?
Torrealba was also accusing Tex of stealing signs earlier in the series… if he’s worried about pitch type change up the signs. If he’s worried about location don’t setup 30minuttes before the pitch is thrown and they can’t steal location.
Torrealba just seemed tired of watching his pitchers get lit up in the first 2 games.
Article title should have been: Who Cares If The Yankees Are Stealing Signs?
Body: No one but Torrealba.
The end
Of course, that is just moronic.
You’re right, it’s the Texas Rangers and their base and that’s it.
It’s not against the rules to steal signs, so I dunno why people whine about it. It’s your fault if you’re not encrypting your signs well enough.
Right on you guys. A catcher bitching about sign stealing is like a QB who whines that teams always blitz when they hear him audible, because he always audibles into a play action pass.
Except the media would laugh at the QB, but somehow Torrealba gets a sob story.
This type of sign stealing is perfectly acceptable. It’s part of the game – if you can crack their signs from the dugout or the field, that’s their own fault.
That’s not cut and dried. Sign stealing has always been on the edges of acceptability. Players generally wouldn’t admit to sign stealing, because they were afraid they’d face heavy retribution. It’s not quite viewed as “cheating,” but it’s traditionally been an ethical grey area in baseball.
I disagree, there are 2 reasons you don’t want to admit to stealing signs. 1) You don’t want to get drilled in the back in your next at bat. 2) If you are successfully stealing signs why would you give up that fact?
That said, The Yankees are getting drilled a lot lately. Evidence? j/k
Perhaps, but if teams expected opposing players to behave honestly, then why even bother mixing up the signs while a runner is on second?
says the website that’s promoting midgets, chinese, and chinese-midgets
It’s a game, there are no ethics!
I think the fact that Derek Holland couldn’t throw his slider for strikes and allowed a very good offensive team to sit fastball had more to do with his lack of success than sign stealing.
And if you’re worried about sign stealing change your signs.
Ooooookay…
File this complaint under “Who the Hell Cares?” Interesting perspective from the sabremetric standpoint though.
Maybe they are just stealing signs badly?
By the way, when did it become illegal or even bad sportsmanship to steal signs?
It’s always been bad sportsmanship to do so.
says who? Every baseball team on the planet has a least a player sitting on the bench trying to figure out signs.
In high school our signs were extremely complex. I’m sure a Major Leaguer could understand complex sign systems.
It’s bad sportsmanship to _get caught_ stealing signs.
My thought was, maybe they’re stealing signs, and the other teams are switching signs like they should, so the Yankees batters are getting confused and hitting poorly.
That’s why stealing signs isn’t that big of a deal!
Just because they’re able to figure out Torrealba’s signs doesn’t mean that they’ve figured out any other catcher’s, so I don’t think the study proves anything.
Even in high school stealing signs was widely accepted. Hell, even back in little league my teams and other teams would try to pick up the oppositions signs. That’s why in more competitive leagues you see more creative systems.
Even moreso picking pitching signs from second base is a time honored tradition. That’s why Domingo Ayala goes with a system of outs plus one, minus the number in the order of the batter, plus the batters jersey number. Hank Conger can do it.
This isn’t exactly Spygate. Every stadium has a center field camera and every team can see the signs given. Teams vary their systems because they know that almost everything is on accessable film.
very bad at stealing signs, and on top of that causes the runner in the box to be confused.
low BA due to swing for the fence manhood mental state.
I hate the Yankees… but REALLY, who cares about stealing signs? It’s a part of the game. You don’t like it, make better signs. Hide them better. But don’t bitch about it.
Dave,
I think the correlation between defensive positioning and the runner-scenarios you tested makes this data worthless.
Of course hitters are going to have more success when there’s just a man on second as opposed to first or third because frequently the defenders are going to be at either double-play depth or ‘up to cut down the runner at the plate depth’ respectively.
At the very least you should restrict this analysis to when there are two outs.
“Of course hitters are going to have more success when there’s just a man on second…” Did you read the article? They perform *worse* with a runner on second.
Read the article? Why would one even bother to do that when all they wanna do is smugly complain?!?
Of course hitters are going to have LESS success when there’s just a man on second as opposed to first or third because frequently the defenders are going to be at either double-play depth or ‘up to cut down the runner at the plate depth’ respectively.
Just a typo.
Defenders up closer on average (runners on first/third) —> more batting success.
You are right. The current methodology shouldn’t convince. What we want to see is the difference between Yankee performance and league performance in these situations.
Sign stealing by the players or coaches on the field is OK by me. That is why they use signs and don’t just yell “fastball” or “steal” or “bunt.” Sign stealing from a plant in the outfield, ala the 1951 giants, is just plain cheating, however.
On a personal note, playing hs baseball, the first base coach noticed the catcher wasn’t protecting the signs, gave me a heads up on a curve, and I drilled it.
Don’t you need to compare these to other teams to rule out that having a runner on second may cause some unforeseen handicap to the batter? If Yankees stats for most situations is league average, but with a runner on second their stats are above average that would lead credence to the theory. I can’t see how that would be the case, but you need to do due diligence.
Washington to Rangers: “Guys, we figured out the Yankees’ signs. So when you’re up to bat, here is how we’ll tell you if the pitch is off-speed or not –”
Torrealba, standing up and shaking his head: “No, skip, don’t do it. We are better than that. We are Rangers.”
I laughed.
sounds like torrealba is jealous the rangers arent good enough on the basepaths to steal signs. get over it.
Usually, when teams are stealing signs, it’s not from second base, it’s from the dugout. They are tracking each pitch and the call from the dugout or the catcher and relaying them to the hitter. Rarely do teams actually relaying signs from second base to the hitter anymore
Interesting. Do you have a source for this?
rarely do people include the proper verbs in their sentences anymore either, it seems
Every team at the MLB level is stealing signs or attempting to steal signs. It why some pitchers create their own signs and have complicated signals that are not so obvious to detect. Roger Clemens was paranoid about his signs being stolen.
What is not publicly discussed though is the real possibility that home teams are employing some sort of technological aid to their sign-stealing, which would create a huge advantage for them. We know it happens at the pro level, the Patriots in the NFL got caught red-handed. The Phillies were accused of it last year when a bullpen coach had binoculars.
A smart MLB team would only occasionally use a tech aid to their sign-stealing, possibly in an important game or against a pitcher where knowing the pitch type would be hugely beneficial. Some batters have admitted they do not like knowing what pitch is coming. Rare, but it has been stated in the press.
Why is this an issue at all?
If the Yankees were tipping signs like A-Rod was accused of it might actually be an issue
Actually those stats support the accusation that the Yankees are stealing signs, but that the other team knows they are stealing signs so they are feeding them bad data when a runner is on second. Its a game within a game within a game.
So why the hell is Torrealba complaining?
“Actually those stats support the accusation that the Yankees are stealing signs, but that the other team knows they are stealing signs so they are feeding them bad data when a runner is on second.”
Does it? Or are we reading things into the data?
Of course the accusation was specifically about last night’s game. The other games are fun to look at, but have little to no bearing on whether or not this happened last night.
Doesn’t every team try and steal signs or at least location when they have runners on 2nd? You should always asssume they are, thats why you change signs frequently. Nothing here really.
Fangraphs campaign to smudge the Evil Empire in confusing ways continues.
“Fangraphs campaign to smudge the Evil Empire in confusing ways continues.”
Dumbest…assertion…ever, particularly when appended to an article that tends to *exhonerate* the Yankees. You can leave the persecution complex at home.
I agree with the analysis. But just as a general point, if you’re going to present data such as that table, then you really need to include something to indicate sample size.
It’s not surprising that the most extreme values belong to the scenarios that have the smallest samples sizes (PA in parentheses):
Bases Empty: .256/.349/.436 (1420)
Runner on First: .268/.320/.530 (495)
Runner on Second: .209/.355/.328 (217)
Runner on Third: .368/.403/.561 (72)
First and Second: .207/.261/.378 (177)
First and Third: .390/.415/.805 (53)
Second and Third: .171/.397/.371 (58)
I played HS, College, some semi-pro, and advanced summer leagues during high school (ACEBL). Baserunners would sometimes flash signs in – usually with an obvious head pat or other sign language, but sometimes by blatantly flashing fingers. In those cases, the batter would get a high and tight warning shot. After the pitch I would point to the guy on second and tell him if he did it again, I’d throw at the batter’s head. That got me some grief from coaches (my own more often than opponents) and umps, but nobody ever obviously flashed a sign after that.
The best was when a runner thought he had our signs and got them wrong. Nothing quite as comical as seeing a guy swing dead red fastball on a slow hook.
My ACEBL team had a standing order – any batter who glanced back at signs was to be hit every at-bat of the game unless the coach specifically cancelled the order (for certain game critical situations or if the hitter was just too crappy to worry about). We were to aim for the ass cheek or thigh. It wasn’t actually quite that simple, opposing coaches usually knew we did this so we had several other tactics to deal with the problem.
I agree that the easy thing is to change up the signs, but for whatever reason I had a lot of coaches who kept the same signs year to year so some teams just knew most of them. Coaches only seem to care about the steal sign, which makes sense, the rest really don’t matter.
My point is not to say I/we played mean or cruel baseball, it’s to say that we considered pitch sign stealing to be egregious cheating despite the lack of rules to the contrary. So I/we created our own punishment system.
You/they had me/us at ass-cheek.
Awesome story, bro. Throw at me. I’ll take the free pass all day and wreak havoc on the basepaths. Thanks for the easy runs.
“My point is not to say I played baseball…”
Pretty sure it was.
ah yes, punishing the batter for trying to steal signs, and subsequently moving him onto 1st base. Yeah I guess that strategy is REALLY good for holding a would be base stealer on 1st.
If I was the opposing coach or team and caught wind of this, I’d have all my players attempt to steal signs, and then your team’s pitchers would be thrown out of the game, and we’d have a lot easier time winning. Maybe a more bruised time, but a win is a win.
Unless of course, a head-hunter like Pedilla is on the mound…
It’s the responsibility of any player to steal signs in an effort to win the game. It’s not against any rules. It’s gamesmanship and should be practiced by all as long as it happens inbetween the lines.
That said, watching the replays on MLB Network, which did a nice recap of the signs the catcher was putting down and Jones’ movements at second, there is almost no chance Jones was stealing signs.
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