A’s and Cardinals Execute Win-Win Trade
(Photo: Keith Allison)
The St. Louis Cardinals have had a busy couple of days. One outfielder came in, another left. The latter move sent Stephen Piscotty to the Oakland A’s in exchange for two middle-infield prospects, Yairo Munoz and Max Schrock. The trade was made partly to accommodate Piscotty, whose mother has ALS, but the deal does help St. Louis. Likewise, it fills a need for Oakland.
Let’s start with Piscotty. Coming off a 2.8 WAR season in 2016, Piscotty looked to be building a solid profile in St. Louis. Clearly the Cardinals thought so, as they signed him to a six-year, $33.5 million contract that included a $2 million bonus. By the second week of the 2017 season, he was hitting cleanup.
Things didn’t go that smoothly all year though. Piscotty missed 15 days in May due to a strained hamstring. In mid-July, he landed back on the DL with a strained right groin. They recalled him on Aug. 1 from that injury but then optioned him to the minors on Aug. 7, only to reverse course and bring him back to the majors on Aug. 20. In his stint in the minors after he was demoted, he hit .313/.421/.781 in Triple-A, suggesting that he didn’t really need to be demoted in the first place. We’ll chalk that up to a bit of Mike Matheny Logic. Expecting a player fresh off the DL to hit like normal is shortsighted at best. Amusingly, in his last plate appearance before he was demoted, Piscotty hit a pinch-hit double.
Here’s his lines, split around his DL stints.
| From | To | PA | H | BB% | K% | ISO | BABIP | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | wRC+ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/2 | 5/4 | 98 | 19 | 16.3% | 18.4% | 0.139 | 0.283 | 0.241 | 0.378 | 0.380 | 0.339 | 109 |
| 5/20 | 7/14 | 175 | 35 | 11.4% | 21.1% | 0.133 | 0.279 | 0.233 | 0.331 | 0.367 | 0.308 | 89 |
| 8/1 | 8/6 | 18 | 3 | 5.6% | 22.2% | 0.059 | 0.231 | 0.176 | 0.222 | 0.235 | 0.204 | 21 |
| 8/20 | 9/30 | 110 | 23 | 13.6% | 25.5% | 0.137 | 0.313 | 0.242 | 0.345 | 0.379 | 0.314 | 92 |
The biggest takeaway here is that he never really had a big sample to his season. The second takeaway, for me, is that he was doing just fine before he hurt his hamstring. It looks as though injuries more or less ruined his season, with a dash of Matheny Logic costing him two weeks in August.
One thing that we can say for sure is that he was pressing in the middle of his three big stints. Let’s take a look at another table:
| From | To | O-Swing% | Z-Swing% | Swing% | O-Contact% | Z-Contact% | Contact% | Zone% | Pace |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4/2 | 5/4 | 27.2% | 62.0% | 42.3% | 62.3% | 84.0% | 76.1% | 43.3% | 22.8 |
| 5/20 | 7/14 | 29.8% | 71.6% | 49.7% | 61.7% | 83.3% | 76.5% | 47.7% | 25.4 |
| 8/20 | 9/30 | 29.6% | 58.0% | 43.2% | 55.4% | 89.9% | 77.5% | 47.7% | 23.8 |
| 2017 Season | 30.2% | 65.9% | 47.0% | 60.5% | 85.5% | 77.0% | 47.1% | 24.7 | |
As you can see in this table, Piscotty was swinging at a much higher rate when he came back from his hamstring injury, but he wasn’t making contact at a higher rate. When he finally got healthy toward the end of the season, though, he was able to go back to swinging less, and he made slightly more contact. He also swung at far fewer pitches out of the zone. That’s a promising development.
Whether he can repeat the swing improvements is a matter that will play out in Oakland. On the left coast, he’ll switch from right field to left field but become a valuable cog in their outfield no matter the corner in which he plays.
| Name | PA | AVG | OBP | SLG | wOBA | Bat | BsR | Fld | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Piscotty | 532 | 0.253 | 0.337 | 0.420 | 0.327 | 3.2 | -1.6 | 0.4 | 1.5 |
| Matt Joyce | 413 | 0.240 | 0.347 | 0.431 | 0.336 | 5.7 | 0.0 | -3.9 | 1.2 |
| Chad Pinder | 469 | 0.244 | 0.292 | 0.403 | 0.298 | -8.8 | -0.9 | 0.1 | 0.2 |
| Dustin Fowler | 119 | 0.253 | 0.289 | 0.408 | 0.296 | -2.4 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.0 |
Of the four players we see getting significant time in an Oakland outfield corner, Piscotty projects to be the second-best hitter (by wOBA) and the best player overall. And this projection is probably a little conservative. If healthy, Piscotty could easily it. Given the way his 2017 season unfolded, I’m willing to throw out his replacement-level performance and be a little optimistic.
Over in St. Louis, Munoz and Schrock have their fans. Both were among Eric’s top 24 A’s prospects last spring. Munoz made Chris’s midseason KATOH top-100 list this past year. And Schrock was a fixture on Carson’s Fringe Five list last season. At the time of his last Fringe Five appearance in August, he was the yearly leader, and he would eventually finish the season third on the Fringe Five leaderboard.
All of this is to say that Munoz, a shortstop, and Schrock, a second baseman, weren’t throw-ins. They could potentially be valuable players. That is furthered by the dearth of middle-infield talent in the St. Louis farm system. Eric selected the Cardinals for one of his first top-prospects pieces this offseason. Here’s how the talent broke down:
| Position | 1-10 | 11-23 |
|---|---|---|
| RHP | 4 | 6 |
| C | 2 | 0 |
| OF | 4 | 4 |
| SS | 0 | 2 |
| LHP | 0 | 1 |
There are two shortstops but no second basemen, and one of the shortstops is a 40 future value (FV) player who hasn’t yet reached A-ball. Munoz, meanwhile, ascended to Triple-A last season, and Schrock should be ready for Triple-A this season. Schrock actually projects to post a 87 wRC+ in the majors this year, which puts him in league with utility infielder Greg Garcia. Neither Munoz nor Schrock is likely to crack the Opening Day roster, but they should provide good depth for the Cardinals, who always seem to manage to turn average prospects into solid major leaguers. Oakland, meanwhile, still has plenty of middle infielders on the farm and in the Show. Top prospect Franklin Barreto is ready for major-league duty but may not actually get it to start the season, for instance.
This is a win-win deal. The Cardinals had too many good outfielders and too few good middle infielders. The A’s had too many good middle infielders and too few good outfielders. And as an added bonus, Stephen Piscotty — who will probably be fine if he can he avoid last season’s leg injuries — gets to be closer to his ailing mother. It’s hard not to like this trade from all angles.
Paul Swydan used to be the managing editor of The Hardball Times, a writer and editor for FanGraphs and a writer for Boston.com and The Boston Globe. Now, he owns The Silver Unicorn Bookstore, an independent bookstore in Acton, Mass. Follow him on Twitter @Swydan. Follow the store @SilUnicornActon.
The A’s are going to get a lot of production out of the guy the Cardinals thought Piscotty could be when they locked him up pre-arbitration. And when he does it’s going to be an insane return on that club-friendly contract.
Really excited as a Cards fan to see what Munoz and Schrock do in Springfield and/or Memphis this year. I’m hoping that both Kolten Wong and Paul DeJong have repeats of last year, but it’s always nice to have options, particularly in 2019 and beyond. Or who knows, they could get flipped this winter yet. The Cards’ front office has been busy and Mozeliak says he’s looking for more.
BTW Piscotty’s mom has ALS, not cancer. Both the St. Louis and Bay Area media have been pushing that angle all week long, but it looks like a good baseball business trade on top of it.
Duly edited regarding Piscotty’s mother. Thanks.
Thanks. My fault.
Fuck ALS and Fuck Cancer they’re both terrible
What people miss there is that Oakland may be thinking they will get better production out of a happy player and vice versa for the Cardinals. With that in mind, it makes more sense they got a deal done. And teams do think about chemistry and satisfaction these days and believe in the effects. Farhan Zaidi talked about the importance of that when I saw him speak in Oakland.
I imagine most players would be happier playing for Melvin than Matheny.
I think the A’s will probably play Piscotty in RF and move Joyce over to LF.
I could see them trading Joyce and playing Pinder in LF Piscotty in RF and a combination of Fowler/Powell in CF with Cahna or Smolinski as the 5th OF.
vs LHP
LF – Piscotty
RF – Pinder
vs RHP
LF – Joyce
RF – Piscotty
I was wondering why on earth the Cards decided to send him to the A’s for what seemed like an underwhelming return, but the mom-who-has-ALS angle is something I didn’t know about. I have no idea if that played any role at all but if so that was a really classy move on the Cards’ part.
I actually think Schrock and Munoz are interesting prospects, but I like the 2 WAR outfielder locked up through his prime years more. It’s a win-win in the narrow sense, but the Cards definitely sold low on Piscotty.
Its a win-win on current value, if Piscotty peaks for a couple years above the level of his 2016 season it could get bad. Munoz looks most like a good UT infielder who’s below avg defensively at the two middle positions with the way his body has filled out. While I like Shrock a avgish defender at 2B, with good hit tool, no power, and avg speed might not ever be a starter. I like both, but I think if Piscotty puts up a 3WAR year in 2018 his contract makes him crazy valuable he’d bring back a couple back of the top 100 players at least if he looks like he’s a 2.5-3WAR batter with a injury caused down year in the middle.
As more context on the personal angle, it’s been at least speculated that the Cardinals were looking to trade Piscotty either to the Giants or to the A’s. The Giants obviously also could use an outfielder.
There’s also a roster construction angle that at least one of Grichuk, Piscotty, and Martinez were logically going to be traded with a starting OF of Ozuna, Pham, and Fowler.
FWIW, Mozeliak was quoted saying that the trade had to make sense for the team but the personal angle was “how to break a tie”. Derrick Goold (local beat reporter for the Cardinals) says that the Cardinals and A’s discussed Piscotty as far back as the trade deadline. http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/birdland/sources-cardinals-set-to-deal-piscotty-to-athletics/article_4dd63d71-12e5-59af-bded-98d89543ef2a.html
Seems like a 40-man roster crunch on both sides–Cards had a glut of corner outfielders, A’s had a glut of middle infielders.
Left on the OAK to do list:
*Maybe trade Lowrie or Joyce.
*Sign a LH reliever.
*Sign a mid to back end starter.
*Explore extensions with Chapman/Olson!
*Upgrade Phelgy at catcher maybe even someone thats more of a timeshare then a backup since Maxwells bat hasnt shown all the much yet.
*Look for any bargains late in the FA market since the team still has quite a bit of money. Probably wait and see which starters are left in the cold a bit, and look for cheap deadline chip buys.
The team has good IF depth in the upper minors, and a ton of starter depth even if its not all amazing upside wise to start the year. A couple of the highest upside starters might be able to help out mid season Puk/Kapprelian/Holmes. I feel like Oak is in a really good place to make a couple signings that could bring value midseason on the A’s or at the deadline, similar to Petit. The team looks much better then last year, and with some breakouts in the rotation they could have a chance at hanging in the WC race.
If the rotation struggles to start the year Oak can trade some combination of Joyce, Lowrie, Hendricks, Hatcher, Trienen, Petit, Casilla, Graveman, KD, Hanh, Semien whichever has good value since most are running out of team control. Deal the FA to be and any of the others with peak value and below 3 years remaining. Dealing most of the players out of that group wouldnt even hurt the 2019 depth much since the team has a lot of Montas/Blackburn upside reliever types that are ready, and KD is the only player in that group they wouldnt have in house replacements for even before the prospect hauls those deals could bring back.
I dont know what outcome I’m rooting for, since I feel like ANA/HOU BOS/NYY are going to make a division or WC unlikely this year. Also gassing a bunch of relievers, a couple affordable position players, a legit slugger and a couple mid rotation arms for prospects at the deadline gives them a ton of future value for 2019-2022. The farm has a handful of top players at the upper level that should be here by 2019 and then a ton of young 17-19 year olds in its upper rankings so getting some more depth in the middle age ranges could be nice, although at this point if Im Oak in any trade, I am focusing on fewer higher value guys over more depth, since the team has a deep system but lacks some of the premium talent guys closer to the bigs.
This was a good time to buy low on Piscotty, but I’m not sure that’s what the A’s actually did…Cards are showing some good negotiating skills this week
I think it is, we got the deal done without giving up any of the upper tier prospects and guys with serious helium. Puk, luzardo, Barreto, Fowler, Matteo, and more importantly Neuse and Murphy are intact.
Munoz has the better toolset of the two but struggled to ever really put it together constantly, he is exciting though and offers a good work in progress type return. Shrock if being realistic is just a hit tool, everything else is below average.
I think I’d take the Oakland side of this deal, but it’s close. The Cards’ return was a bit light, but there was a very serious OF logjam in STL, so clearing that up really helps them out. I think Grichuk is the next to go, but Mozeliak said something about keeping him around as a talented 4th outfielder, so who knows?
Grichuk makes sense as a 4th OF, since he can play center as well as corner OF.
Granted, that may not be as necessary with three starting OF’s who can at least in theory play center (with that perhaps a questionable thought on Fowler if his 2017 was a sign of the future, not a one year fluke in defensive metrics and/or an abnormal injury-hampered season), plus Bader in AAA unless he’s traded in another deal.
Jose Martinez should be on the roster, though, so having both he and Piscotty as the bench OF’s would be an unusual roster without a CF-capable player on the bench.
So, with Piscotty, there’s a combination of the personal situation, Cardinals’ roster construction, and the fact that he may not get enough PA’s to be able to rebuild value unless starting OF’s miss a lot of games with injury. And, even then, there’s the possibility that one or more of the OF’s in the upper minors hit enough to force their way into the mix.
As a Cardinals fan, I wish Piscotty well. I understand why this trade looks like a sell-low, but I can see why it could be for the best for the team and also for Piscotty as both a person and a player.
I doubt they’ll do this, but the guy they could really use as a 4th outfielder is a guy like Granderson. Or Tyler Naquin, but he’d be expensive to trade for. A guy who really mashes against righties and can play some center field.
I agree those aren’t too likely, but those are interesting thoughts.
I hadn’t really thought about it until you pointed it out, but the Cardinals are very much right-handed hitters not only in the starting lineup (2 LH hitters plus 1 SH) but also on the bench (only Greg Garcia is LH). All five of the at least somewhat promising OF’ers in the Cardinals’ upper minors also hit RH. The position players on the 40-man roster are all RH hitters except for the aforementioned 3 LH hitters and 2 SH.
FWIW on the latter idea, the Cardinals and Indians have quite a bit of history of trading with each other in recent years – http://www.historyofcardinals.com/trading-history-with-cleveland-indians/ . (Corey Kluber: kind of, sort of, but not really a Cardinal for a moment in time as part of a three-team trade.)
Curtis Granderson would sort of fit the “Lance Berkman / Carlos Beltran” spot on the Cardinals, but as a bench player. Don’t know if Granderson will find a team for which he’s at least a platoon starter, but I assume he’d prefer that to being a bench player.
One issue for the Cardinals is that they have a 40-man roster logjam right now with 39 players still on it after these trades, and I think only one spot with true deadweight (Mike Mayers). I’m almost certain they’ll add at least one more reliever (though a trade could keep the 40-man level) and perhaps a backup catcher so that Kelly can get plenty of playing time at AAA.
Grichuk could be traded for solely non-40 man prospect(s), but that would restrict the potential trade partners.
Seems to be lots of chatter about the Cardinals making a trade with the Rays, but my understanding is that the Rays have their own 40-man roster logjam so taking back several 40-man players from the Cardinals in a trade wouldn’t be their logical preference.
Kelly has nothing left to prove at AAA. He’ll be in an on-the-job apprenticeship with Molina, gradually gaining more and more playing time as Molina ages.
I’m struggling, though, with why this is going to be a three-year transition rather than a two-year one. Kelly ought to get PA’s somewhere, and he probably really ought to catch some games somewhere as a player who converted to catcher in 2014. He’s 23 with about 400 PA’s at AAA and 240 at AA, so I don’t see that more high-minors time is too much.
Molina’s contract runs through 2020. Will he be a back-up in his final year? If so, let 2019 be the transition year with something close to a true time-share.
Molina backed up Matheny for one year (2004) and then started 111 games in 2005.
I look at how the Dodgers handled Barnes, and he’s now set to be the clear-cut starting catcher (if the rumors of shopping Grandal are true) with 1 year, 124 days of service time. He was also in AAA long enough that he got 700+ PA’s there. http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=12158&position=C/2B
For both Kelly’s development and service time, I’m not seeing why he should be in St. Louis to catch about 40 games, particularly if the expectation is that something similar to that repeats again in 2019.
Like you said, Kelly will probably get near equal playing time in 2019 and the majority of the playing time in 2020.
While I’m as happy as the next person to blame Matheny when his moves make little if any sense (see Matt Adams in left field), it’s awfully rough to blame him for Piscotty’s demotion in August.
First, while the sample is small, here was Piscotty’s July 2017 before he was out with his hamstring injury: 37 PA’s, 11 K’s, 1 BB, 1 HBP, .171 / .216 / .200 slash line, 11 wRC+. So that’s a bit more context for his even smaller sample in early August also looking terrible.
Second, the timing of his demotion coincided with Fowler coming back from an injury. See Fowler’s 2017 FG play log, with a gap between 7-24 and 8-7, which was time on the DL with a strained left forearm / wrist. So someone had to be moved off the 25 man roster to clear a spot.
Third, with Fowler back, the Cardinals had four other outfielders who realistically could (and should) play ahead of a badly slumping Piscotty: Pham, Fowler, Grichuk, and Jose Martinez.
Last, of course, a demotion to the minors isn’t a decision made just by the manager. The front office is also involved. There have been occasions when Matheny is criticized for being too quick to bench younger players in a slump for veteran options who themselves aren’t very good, but in this case there were four other options who arguably all deserved playing time over a slumping Piscotty . It doesn’t at all feel seem like it was Matheny forcing the hand of the front office. Piscotty, as we see in the chart, did play a fair amount right before his demotion (18 PA’s in 6 days). Piscotty could be sent to the minors, so let him work on getting back to form in AAA instead of languishing on the bench as a 5th OF with less than daily PA’s. And he’d be there a lot of games as the 3rd RH pinch hitter off the bench after Jose Martinez and Luke Voit.
FWIW, here’s an article at the time with some quotes from Mozeliak and Matheny: http://www.stltoday.com/sports/baseball/professional/cardinals-option-piscotty-to-memphis/article_13ce6672-5ec2-5aa2-a230-9d77ee3ac5c2.html
You had me at “I’m happy to blame Matheny” … but excellent comment anyway.
You must not like Matheny.
Also… Future MVP Max Shrock!!!!
Good deal for cards. I like that they kept grichuk – he’s the perfect bench bat, 4th outfielder.
Piscotty seemed slow, a terrible base-runner, and lost the approach he had previously. His OF defense was meh.he really can’t be worse than last year so I think the A’s will be pleased on their buy low.
Trading Ozuna for Piscotty and dumping 4 minor leaguers who had no shot for two guys who can help in a pinch seems like good roster management
“potentially valuable” – well, yes, MVP’s are generally valuable.
You could even say they are considered the “most” valuable.