Assorted Trade Rumor Thoughts
It’s Friday, two days before the trade deadline, and I officially have rumor-induced ADHD. I keep catching myself peeking at my Twitter feed ever couple minutes, and I don’t think I’ve closed my MLB Trade Rumors tab in four days. Sunday needs to come and go already so I can go back to having a life.
As I can barely focus on anything for more than 15 minutes, I figured I’d write up some of my assorted musings on the big rumors floating around out there. Original idea, huh?
The Ubaldo Jimenez Rumors
I don’t get it. If I was the Rockies, there’s no way in heck that I’d trade Jimenez. I can understand the logic behind shopping him, considering they have lots of holes on their roster for 2012 and no surefire prospects ready to fill them, but the Rockies had better be sure they’re getting back an absurd haul for him. How often do 5-6 WAR pitchers come along, nonetheless ones that are signed for only $18 million over the next three years? Pitchers like Jimenez are rare commodities, and no matter how good a prospect is, they’re still only a prospect.
Not only that, but this is Colorado we’re talking about: a team that up until a few years ago had struggled to find pitchers that could succeed in Coors Field. Without Ubaldo, what happens to their rotation? They have some young prospects that could develop into top of the rotation arms — Jhoulys Chacin and Juan Nicasio are both exciting — but their current staff would look considerably weaker without Jimenez at the front. Then again, maybe I’m reading Colorado’s position on the Win Curve wrong; I view them as a team that could contend within the next few season with a handful of signings and some development from young players.
Jimenez is the highest rated player on Dave Cameron’s trade value series that’s on the trade market this year (#25), but I’m afraid his slow start (currently sports a 4.20 ERA, 3.48 SIERA) could encourage other teams to try and low-ball the Rockies. Word is that the Rockies are holding strong to their asking price, and I hope they keep it that way through the weekend. Unless they’re blown away, there’s no pressing need for them to deal Jimenez. Ace starters like Ubaldo are rare; when you develop one, hold onto it tight and don’t let go.
The Hunter Pence Rumors
It’s already been said a hundred times by others, but the Astros have got to be so happy that Pence decided to post a .370 BABIP so far this year. I’m not trying to say that Pence’s production this season hasn’t been legit, as it’s possible that he’s just been insanely hot this year and hitting the ball hard, but the odds are that eventually he’ll regress closer to his career .330 BABIP.
Of course, in season results tend to be “stickier” than season-to-season, so it’s possible that Pence could keep this streak going through the end of the year — Josh Hamilton posted a .390 BABIP last season, after all. It’d be a gamble for a team to trade for Pence under the assumption that he’ll maintain a high BABIP, but if a team is very focused on winning this season and doesn’t mind if Pence’s production drops back to his career average after this season, they could at least make a justifiable argument for paying slightly more for him than fair market value.
That’s not to say I’d recommend a team do this. But I do think it’d make for an interesting argument.
The Denard Span Rumors
From 2009-2011:
Hunter Pence — 10.0 WAR
B.J. Upton — 7.9 WAR
Denard Span — 9.3 WAR
If you have a hopeless compulsion to trade for relievers, you might as well make sure they’re young, injury-free, and dominant — like Drew Storen, essentially. Relievers are easy to replace and difficult to project, but Storen is one of the few bullpen arms that could be worth paying a decent bit for through trade. He’s young, cheap, has great upside, and is already an shutdown closer; you can’t ask for much more in a bullpen arm.
But still…trading Span for a reliever — any reliever — would be disappointing. He’s a good-to-great center fielder and under team control cheaply through 2015, so the Twins would need to get some sort of prospect included in a package for him. Heck, if the Phillies’ are offering their top two prospects for Hunter Pence, a Span-Storen swap would be highway robbery.
The Orioles
I’m somewhat surprised we haven’t heard more from the Orioles, who have plenty of spare parts that they could shop. While Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee won’t bring back a king’s ransom, trading them would do the O’s more long-term good than holding onto them. But hey, there are still a couple days left — more can always develop.
Piper was the editor-in-chief of DRaysBay and the keeper of the FanGraphs Library.
Steve,
If these players were to be traded to any of the teams connected to them, who do you think would be the most logical/best choice? I’m sure that’s what many of us hoped to see when we clicked on this article. Thanks.
looks like ubaldo to the yanks, kuroda to the tigers.
pence to the ___________ indians maybe?
bell to _______? phillies?
phillie doesnt need an OF thats for sure. giants are looking at ramon hernandez
bedard to the bo sox
its a guessing game really.
and those idiots who rumored that james shields would be traded are sure looking silly right now.
looks like the indians alreaey got an OF… opps
The Indians aren’t done quite yet, and have been talking about getting another bat, so it’s possible Pence could be in the cards, however, I don’t think that they’ll meet the asking price for him.
They’re also popping up left and right on the Ubaldo front, and have several high end pitching prospects and MLB/near MLB ready SP’s and RP’s waiting in Columbus.
I think they may just surprise us at the deadline with something big.
I have no problem with a contender paying slightly more than market value, but the offers that have been leaking out so far are absolutely insane (Jonathan Singleton, Jarred Cosart and Trevor May or Domonic Brown).
Phillies prospects are pretty much all overrated. Those deals would not excite me much if I was Houston.
Amen. They are mid-level prospects who haven’t shown much statistically but have room for “growth”… join the other 1000 prospects in the minors.
+1 on Span. He doesn’t have as long a track record as Pence, but who cares?
I have a hard time believing the Storen-Span rumors simply because of the Capps-Ramos trade last year. Would the Twins really make the same mistake twice in two years?
While dealing with the same team both times, no less.
Can you imagine that as a package deal? Ramos and Span for Capps and Storen? even AA thinks that is unfair
Sadly, I can see the Twins making that move. As a Twins fan this has been an extremely frustrating week as, it seems to me, that most fans have somehow gotten the idea that Revere is a superior player to Span which is obviously pure insanity.
…especially when you can have both, if Revere ends up that good.
The Hunter Pence asking price boggles the mind.
If Wade was offered Brown, Cosart, and Singleton and turned it down, both he and Amaro Jr don’t deserve jobs in baseball.
It’s outrageous. Those are Justin Upton prices (or even beyond).
All three weren’t offered in the same trade proposal. One involved Brown, a separate one involved Cosart and Singleton.
-C
storen is the future of the nationals. no way they give him up
Let me fix that for you: Storen is a reliever for the Nationals. There are all sorts of reasons to give relievers up.
Exactly.
How often to the Nats even need a closer? Span is having a awesome season (except the concussion) and appears to have great upside.
Make no mistake, this is Ramos for Capps all over again.
as above
Atlanta better end up with a CF, not another corner fielder.
It seems like Wade is playing this really well, because it seems as though the Phillies are getting desperate (if the rumors are true) and he may be able to get the Braves to budge on some of their prospects. If he can get a huge haul for Pence that would be great for the Astros, but he probably needs to pull the trigger relatively soon before these teams decide its easier to get Upton, Ludwick, etc.
I also don’t really understand why the Yankees wouldn’t give up their prospects for Ubalado, he fills a need now and will be around for several years. It also doesn’t even seem like they will be able to use Montero if he can’t play Catcher.
I’m not sold Ubaldo is healthy. His velocity is down ~5 mph from his dominant stretch last year. Seems odd.
Take a look at this: http://oi52.tinypic.com/f045g0.jpg
Interesting photos. Wonder why he and the Rockies haven’t worked on that to make adjustments. You gotta believe they’ve seen the same thing.
Ubaldo has admitted that going to Europe caused him to not go into his normal off season throwing program, which could explain the hip flexor issue which started in spring training but he didn’t mention until the season was well underway, which could explain the loss of velocity.
He also pitched winter ball in the Dominican before 2010 we will see in 2012 if he is back up velocity wise
I really don’t get the Span trade. The Twins have two guys who are paid like closers for 2011 and (based on the fx) Nathan appears to be back to his original form, i.e. getting two Ks in the bottom of the 9th two nights ago.
Any chance Storen can be converted in to a starter?
Why should a team expect Pence’s production to continue at this seemingly BABIP-heightened level for the remainder of this season? It’s already at .333 for July, I don’t see why we should expect it to stay at .370 for the rest of the year.
Want proof how BABIP is a bad stat to rely on? Check out Matt Joyce’s numbers this year.
So you are citing “one” player to challenge the proof of a metric’s reliability?
This is still FanGraph right? Do you really need numbers to tell you how unreliable BABIP is? Or should I be worried that you actually took my statement seriously?
Totally agree on Jimenez, chances of getting a prospect as good as Jimenez are slim. Jimenez is still young with room for improvement and is very cheap. As much as I want to see him win 20 games in pinstripes…not gonna happen
Span looks even better using BBR WAR:
Upton – 7.9
Span – 7.9
Pence – 6.3
I was initially against a Ubaldo to Yankees trade. The asking price seems high. But in the long ride Austin Romine might be more useful to the Yanks because he can actually catch (and the Yanks have Tex and A-Rod signed long term and are in no need of a guy clogging up the DH time) Dellin Betances is far from a sure thing, and Ivan Nova has very little up-side. If they could make the trade for those three and hang on to Man-Ban I’d do it. Ubaldo is really good, young and has a couple of years left. Give up risky quantity for quality.
This article truly undervalues Storen. I don’t understand the comment “Heck, if the Phillies’ are offering their top two prospects for Hunter Pence, a Span-Storen swap would be highway robbery.”
First of all, top prospects only pan out about half the time. Secondly, Pence is much better than Span. Span has little power, and has not shown a great ability to steal bases. He’s a poor man’s Juan Pierre. Storen looks like he could be as good as Bell as far as dominance. I would rather have Storen than any two Philly prospects not name Dominic Brown.
Finally, am I wrong in saying that Harper can play center field. If so, why the rush for a center fielder? Harper has a good chance of arriving to the majors by 2013. Live with who you got for a year and have great pitchers, hitters and a shut the door in your face, closer.
you are wrong about several things
CF is just a more valuable position than a closer, I think that’s relatively agreed upon. Trading a good CF (whether you think Pence is better or not) for a good closer is just a bad idea.
Calling Span a poor man’s Juan Pierre seems out of touch with reality as, aside from a lack of power, the two don’t really have much in common. Span is certainly the better player and at a more important position.
Young Juan Pierre was a pretty good MLB outfielder. ~22 WAR by the time he was 30. Sure he’s useless now, but that kind of player is damn useful compared to a guy who throws ~70 innings.
Juan Pierre is his own poor man’s Juan Pierre.
Harper definitely can’t play CF – he has Vlad Guerrero instincts in RF right now.
Bryce Harper’s 20 with negligible experience as an OF… I think he deserves some leeway.
I spend an awful lot of time playing golf. Golfie golfie golf. Working is for the offseason!
Anybody else find it intereesting that Quentin is playing the Sox tonight? Possible looming trade…
Interesting? Not really…did he have the option to play a different team instead?
No no, I mean if he was dealt to the Sox than it would make for an interesting twist. Happened to Doug Mientkiewicz in 2004 when he came over to the Sox before a game, and look how that ended…
Pence is a Philly. Singleton, Cosart, and two PTBNL are Ed Wade’s gift to his successor.
Only reason to trade Ubaldo is he is damaged goods. Rockies refusing to release medical records before trade is very telling.
A drop in velocity does not just happen, there is always an injury behind it, even if the injury is not obvious (sometimes arm problems manifest as shoulder weakness and no pain, you just see a velocity drop and command issues)