Astros and Cubs Complete Swap To Fill Current Needs
Both the Astros and the Cubs are in the process of a long-term build, yes. And in third baseman Luis Valbuena, starting pitcher Dan Straily, and outfielder Dexter Fowler, they’re moving three players that average close to 28 years old. Not everything these teams do needs to be focused on the far-term, though. With the second wild card, this year can be as important as any other.
When the Astros today sent Fowler to the Cubs for Valbuena and Straily, both teams traded from current surpluses to fill current needs.
The Cubs have infielders. With Starlin Castro, Javier Baez, Arismendy Alcantara, Luis Valbuena, Kris Bryant, and Addison Russell, they had an infield twice over. Once you factor in bust rates, that’s probably a good way to go about things. Since some in the community think the six-foot-five Kris Bryant is headed to the corner outfield, and Alcantara was already playing in the outfield, they might be have been able to fill both the infield and outfield eventually.
Eventually, though. Because for right now, they’d probably rather see which of their young players can stick on the infield, where they’ll get the most value out of their production. So, perhaps to remove the temptation to put Kris Bryant in the outfield right now in lieu of Chris Coghlan because Bryant’s bat is ready and Luis Valbuena can play a decent third, the Cubs went and got an outfielder. Now even Alcantara can return to second base, the position he manned in the minor leagues, should the team want to try Baez at third in the short term.
Dexter Fowler may not stay with the Cubs after this year, but he helps them get better this year. It’s fair to wonder why the team needs him if they aren’t going to compete this year. But they are building to competitiveness quickly, and at least one player things this is the year for them. Even if last year’s one-year defensive numbers mean Fowler can’t play center any more, he’s a fit for a team that needs outfielders. Three of the last four years, Fowler would have been worth giving a qualifying offer, too — even as the veteran leaves at the end of the season, he may bring the Cubs presents.
The Cubs do need pitching. So perhaps it was surprising for them to send Dan Straily in the deal. Straily took a while to find his changeup, but once he did, it completed his arsenal. That change, with a 17% whiff rate and a 50% ground-ball rate last year, was well above-average among its peers. With a 22% whiff rate, his slider was a top-ten offering among starters. And his fastball, despite losing a bit of gas, was still average with a 7% whiff rate. At the very least, Straily can be an average starter. He’s been one before.
Maybe it’s lack of ace-type upside that made the Cubs feel they could move him. With Kyle Hendricks or Travis Wood in the fifth slot after the Jon Lester signing, Edwin Jackson is suddenly a sixth starter. Straily would have likely been an injury replacement on the 2015 Chicago Cubs.
On the Astros, however, Straily probably begins the season with the team. Brett Oberholtzer only has one pitch that rates above average, and with a history of home run problems in the minor leagues, perhaps the Astros didn’t want to depend on him keeping his home run per fly ball rates on the small side of average (6.2% career, 10% is average).
After the acquisition of Evan Gattis, the Astros did have a surplus in the outfield. No matter what you think of their gloves, between Chris Carter and Gattis, they would have had at least one corner outfielder to pair with George Springer. That left Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick on the outside looking in — despite the fact that both could man center field. Now they will both man center field, in some sort of platoon.
That won’t be the only regular platoon on the Astros this coming year. If there’s one weakness for Valbuena it’s that, while he’s been above-average for three years running, he hasn’t been a complete player over the past three years. He’s been league average against righties, but his offense against lefties has dropped to 24% worse than league average. He’ll fit nicely with righty Matt Dominguez.
And that’s what this deal was about, in the end. Fit. The Astros now have platoon solutions at third and in center, and for their troubles, they have a better fifth starter situation. The Cubs, who are building quickly, get a two-win boost in the outfield. It cost them a redundant platoon player at third base with two years of control remaining, and a young starter that’s been league average in the past and has seen some velocity loss the last couple of years.
It’s the starting pitcher that could change the calculus of the deal. Five years of control of a league-average starter would be a great return for one year of Dexter Fowler. It’s tempting to say we should all watch the velocity readings in the spring for Dan Straily. But those per-pitch numbers, the ones that suggest he’s above-average right now? Those came when his fastball barely broke 90 last year.
With a phone full of pictures of pitchers' fingers, strange beers, and his two toddler sons, Eno Sarris can be found at the ballpark or a brewery most days. Read him here, writing about the A's or Giants at The Athletic, or about beer at October. Follow him on Twitter @enosarris if you can handle the sandwiches and inanity.
Would the Astros really platoon Grossman and Marisnick? I imagine the latter gets a chance to play full-time. Doesn’t make a lot of sense to shelter a promising young player like that by never letting him develop against right-handed pitching. I can see Grossman as more of a 4th OF type getting ABs from pretty much everybody in the lineup. With Gattis capable of catching, Grossman is an indirect backup for every roster spot except 2B/SS/3B.
Is this your arm chair scouting or scouting from a Baseball America handbook circa 2011? Marisnick has had more opportunities than Grossman and shown considerably less. Grossman was also a very well regarded prospect in his own right. If Grossman’s bat eventually becomes a 50, his on base ability becomes very valuable. Marisnick looks like the 4th outfielder.
How has Marisnick had more opportunities than Grossman? Besides Grossman would be horrible in CF. I would rather play Marisnick everyday because I know he’s an elite defensive OF with a higher offensive ceiling than Grossman. The only thing Grossman has shown is an elite skill to walk, which is indeed a really good attribute but the Astros just traded and slightly better version of Grossman today.
No, Bob, no. Marisnick was ranked by BA as the #79 prospect entering the 2014 season – who has not been given a full chance yet and has yet to turn 24 years of age. Grossman is likely a backup OF’er at best, though he also deserves a longer look as well. Perhaps, you are thinking of someone else.
I’m not even sure both of them can be on this current 25 man as is, let alone platoon mates…one is going to start in CF at the big league level and one will have to start in CF at AAA. And even if they manage to get both on the 25 man roster – I see no chance either is turned into a straight platoon partner this early in their careers.
Assuming they carry 13 position players:
C J. Castro
1B J. Singleton
2B J. Altuve
SS J. Lowrie
3B L. Valbuena
RF G. Springer
CF J. Marisnick/R. Grossman
LF E. Gattis
BNC H. Conger/C. Corporan
BNIF M. Dominguez
BNIF M. Gonzalez
BNOF A. Presley
and obviously I forgot DH C. Carter
I think Presley’s not going to make it. I don’t think it’s necessarily a straight platoon or would have said so, but I think there are enough at-bats to give both Marisnick and Grossman semi-regular roles.
I don’t see them eating yet another 1M$ by not having Presley (who is out of options) on the 25 man. And now with the acquisition of Rasmus both Marisnick and Grossman are slated for AAA (or trade).
Don’t forget Mike Olt.
I’m pretty sure Cubs fans want to
Would it make sense to park Baez at 3B until Bryant comes up? It seems Baez is going to have enough to figure out with the strikeouts at the plate that learning another infield position might not be the best idea. Alcantera already seems to be turning into an all-field zobrist type player and probably could start somewhere 4 or 5 days a week. Olt/Alcantera/lastrella should be fine at 3B for a month.
Addison Russell at third is also an option, as he played there some for Team USA.
There’s zero chance that Russell starts the season with the team. We’ll want to get him some time in AAA before moving him up to Chicago.
Is there any data on how the 2014-15 off-season compares with others regarding the number of trades (or trades per MLB team)? It sure seems like there have been a lot this year, which is great fun for us fans.
yeah but half of them were made by the Padres…:)
Thanks Eno.
My only criticism of this great article is never does it say who has been traded for who – you have to google the players to get the trade (unless you know who each of Valbuena, Straily, and Fowler play for before the trade and can basically put 2 and 2 together).
yes sorry about that, added a sentece.
Thank you Eno.
You’re a good man, and not only because you’re a Mets fan.
Is this the Cubs’ karma for poaching Arrieta coming back to get them?
let’s pump the brakes on how good Straily’s going to be. Pitchers prove their worth on the mound, not on paper, and in 2014 Straily was utter bull cookies. He was the lowest rung on the ladder of options for the Cubs’ 5th starter, and that includes the woeful Edwin Jackson. Straily was a throw-in; if he makes more of his chance then good for him and the ‘Stro’s, but let’s not talk about him as “karma” for Arrieta just yet.
Slow down. Straily hasn’t proven anything yet. He was terrible last year and very likely would have been behind a collection of Turner, Wada, Doubront, Beeler, Jokisch, Wood, and Jackson in Chicago. That basically tells you all you need to know about his season. He could obviously still turn out to be average (or just below it), but let’s not get carried away. What Arrieta did last year was extraordinary because of how rare it is and is not the rule, but rather the exception to it.
Why does Inside Edge like Fowler so much more than UZR?
shar.es/1b6Piq
Oberholtzer’s low HR/FB rate. By non-elite-velocity-guy standards he’s actually been quite adept at preventing RHB from pulling OFFB dating back to the upper minors – that seems much more a product of approach combined with impeccable command than of luck. That the LF stands are so close in Houston further prioritizes the importance of that to his survival as a flyball pitcher.
I don’t see Grossman as a good platoon option – either Marisnick wins the job outright or Domingo Santana wins the RF job and they move Springer to CF.
Time to start a Tony Kemp centerfield experiment in AAA.
“It’s fair to wonder why the team [Cubs] needs him if they aren’t going to compete this year.”
The Cubs project as the fifth best team in the NL on this very site. That’s playoffs!
What is this projection you speak of?
http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings
Having followed the Astros closely for years, this trade is incredible for one reason; Dan Straily looks like Collin McHugh 2.0.
Mediocre fastball, great secondary arsenal, not a fly ball guy…this is Brent Strom’s type of guy. Watch the velocity tick up. Watch Strom’s pitch tunneling and effective velocity philosophy turn Straily into a #3 starter. Five years of him for one of Fowler… oh and Valbuena, by the way, a massive upgrade over Dominguez as a full-time starter.
Whew.
I hope you’re right. I really hope you’re right.
I was under the impression Marisnick was a fantastic defender in CF and therefore expect him to play there even if he hits eighth or ninth. So Gattis and Carter in LF/DH, Marisnick in CF, Springer in RF, Grossman as a defensive replacement in left and a pinch-hitter. Infield of Valbuena, Lowrie, Altuve and Singleton, except Singleton may not start in Houston. Dominguez and Gonzalez as the backup infielders, Castro and Conger catching. That’s 13 non-pitchers. I’m sure I left out someone.
Singleton has reverse splits — hits lefties way better. I hadn’t noticed that before.
Alex Presley… he can legitimately play CF and RF, so I’m not sure Grossman is the defensive replacement. Also, there’s talk of putting Springer in his natural CF position, so Marisnick would be in RF.
It’s crazy how the perception of Straily went from mediocre throw-in in the Samardzija-Russell trade to hidden gem here after putting up bad numbers in the minors and majors after the trade.
I think he’s a throw-in here, too (Valbuena has an extra year of control to Fowler, even if Fowler is more likely to get a QO maybe). And my opinion on him hasn’t ever really changed.
“At the very least, Straily can be an above average starter.” I don’t think there are too many different ways to read that sentence.
That’s the kind of sentence that’s being written about Noah Syndergaard, or Lucas Giolito. When someone says “above average starter,” I think 2.5 to 3 WAR. That seems a fair interpretation, doesn’t it?
So if that is at the *very* least what Dan Straily can become, then I’m forced to assume that the author feels Straily could be substantially better than a 2.5 to 3 WAR pitcher. In other words, he *could* be at least a 4+ WAR guy.
I’d rather not be a tedious nitpicker, but that is not a throw-in by any stretch.
Maybe that was too strong. But he already has been an average starter, and his arsenal suggests he could do that again, to me at least.
Walked it back a bit. Thanks for the feedback!
I don’t hate this, but I feel the Cubs slightly overpayed. Part of this is me not believing in Fowler’s defense and the lack of further control.
check out an image of the dimensions of the Wrigley field outfield as laid against minute maid park – CF will immensely friendlier to Fowler at Wrigley, if it’s any consolation
http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php
The Cubs gave up nothing. I don’t know how anyone could say they overpaid. The Cubs have 8 infielders better than valbuena and 10 starting pitchers better than straily, and they got a lead off guy they can pencil in everyday who gets on base. And everyone agrees the defense metrics are flawed but they somehow want to use it to show this is an overpay? Dude is fast and I’m assuming he can catch since he’s been in the majors for 7 years.,.how bad can he be?
“Dude is big and I’m assuming he can hit since he’s been in the majors for 9 years…how bad can he be?”
-Orioles fans re: Delmon Young
Uh, everyday and Fowler should never be used in the same sentence. You get an OF that can get on base and does everything else at below average to average levels and that’s for the 120 games he’s healthy.
Valbuena has been a league average player for the last three years. It’s ludicrous to suggest the Cubs have 8 infielders who are all above league average.
Cubs needed one thing badly. A leadoff hitter. They now have one. IF Fowler plays anywhere near his last 3 years(and he had decent numvers outside of Coors) and the kds like Bryant , Soler and Alcantara, even Baez, are even close to projections the offense becomes 35-40 runs better than last years edition. Valbuenna had a career year last year, is a nice platoon option whos slightly above-average defensively, but hes not an all-star. Cubs didnt give up much for Fowler.They already have there own Valbuenna and Straily in the system already.
As a Rockies fan, I was pretty big on Fowler when he made the leap from AA to MLB a handful of years ago. Then I got to watch him play in person a number of times a year and that went away. I honestly haven’t seen very many people get less out of their physical tools than this guy.
He *should* be significantly above-average defensively, but he simply will not give the necessary effort out in the field. More than once I have seen him turn a routine, up-the-middle single into a double due to nothing more than a lack of hustle, and the boos would rain down at Coors Field.
Maybe Maddon can reach the guy. I hope so, because he could be a borderline All-Star, and part of me would like to see that come out of him.
The definition of mediocrity is to man a platoon with someone who is “league average against righties”. That’s no advantage; that’s a questionable upgrade when taking into account the need for two players vs. one.
I think that’s forgetting two things: the astros have been looking up at average at a bunch of positions, so it’s an upgrade, and valbuena has a glove that’s been what dominguez’s was supposed to be.
The really interesting thing about this trade is that it allows both teams to fill a hole.. yet neither are serious contenders this year. Not only that, but both teams created an equally big hole in the trade. A Marisnick/ Grossman outfield is a grissly prospect, as is the idea of Bryant actually playing third base for an entire season. Mike Olt is currently the only third baseman on the Cubs’ 40 man roster so there’s no net if Bryant can’t hack it with the glove. I can’t assume that Bryant will hit major league pitching either. There have been plenty of elite prospects who couldn’t. Yet the pseudo-contending Cubs are going into the year with Mike Olt as their 3b and Bryant coming to man the position in May. Is that really better than Alcantara in center? Its close.
Not only that but the Chicago papers are reporting that the Fowler trade puts the Cubs over their payroll threshold so they might have to dump Wood too. That leaves them especially thin in the rotation so add that potential hole to the equation.
As a side note: Would anyone ever really have given Fowler a qualifying offer? That number is going to be about $17M next year.
I just checked Fowler’s page. He’s going to play this year at age 29. I hadn’t realized that. There’s no way on god’s green earth that he’s going to get paid $17M to play baseball in any year, especially his age 30 year, given that his speed is such an essential part of his game.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/
But yes, even if Fowler performs near career-high WAR this coming year he’s still a borderline case for a QO.
The idea that Bryant’s 3B defense is THAT BAD is not a consensus. In fact, it has been a point of great debate amongst scouts and writers and executives and everyone in between. Also, Wood was always likely to be traded, given the frankly fairly crazy market for lefty starters out there right now. He likely peaked in 2013 and still has enormous value and his role may very well end up being usurped by guys like Wada, Turner, and Doubront.
Bryant’s 3B defense certainly isn’t *good* — Castro at short, Fowler in CF, Coghlan in LF, and Bryant at 3B is a pretty rough left side of the field.
Wood’s value is not “enormous.”
Agree, just because Wood is a lefty dosen’t mean he has value. He has showed his peak and his floor the past two years. His average is somewhere right in the middle.
That “peak” and “floor” is more BABIP, LOB%, HR/FB fluctuation than it is genuine performance — his xFIP in 2013 and 14 was 4.50 and 4.51 respectively.