ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds

Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.)

For the second straight year, we’ve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base.

The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight.

ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article.

Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here.

Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022:

And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds:

Let’s take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds.

The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox’s chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations.

In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season – equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDC’s 77%. With the Giants predicted for an 85-win season by both models, the four-win difference amounts to a massive playoff probability decrease.

Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC.

The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below:

Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs.