ATC 2022 Projected Standings and Playoff Odds

Earlier this offseason, we released our team expected win totals and playoff odds for the 2022 season. These are based upon the FanGraphs Depth Charts, which use a 50/50 blend of ZiPS and Steamer and our manually maintained playing time estimates. To arrive at the playoff odds, we then simulate the upcoming season 20,000 times, taking strength of schedule into account. (You can learn more about the FanGraphs playoff odds here.)

For the second straight year, we’ve also run the same process using the Average Total Cost (ATC) Projections as our base.

The ATC Projections have been available on the pages of FanGraphs since 2017. ATC is smart aggregation of other projections; its methodology is based on the process that Nate Silver uses with his political forecasting model over at FiveThirtyEight.

ATC further sets itself apart from other statistical aggregation methods. While most other accumulation models apply equal weight to their underlying sources, ATC assigns weights based on historical performance. You can read more about how ATC works in this introductory article.

Over the past few years, ATC has consistently been one of the most accurate baseball forecasting models. Indeed, according to FantasyPros, the ATC projections have been the most accurate baseball projections over the past three seasons. The success of ATC stems from minimizing parameter risk across the player pool, which you can read more about here.

Without further ado, here are the ATC forecasted win totals for 2022:

ATC Projections – Expected 2022 Win Totals
Team Winning % W L RS RA
Dodgers 60.1% 97 65 885 708
Braves 57.2% 93 69 842 703
Blue Jays 56.6% 92 70 839 722
Brewers 55.7% 90 72 776 683
Astros 55.3% 90 72 792 712
White Sox 55.1% 89 73 794 717
Yankees 54.6% 88 74 792 707
Phillies 53.9% 87 75 822 729
Mets 53.6% 87 75 781 696
Padres 53.3% 86 76 773 704
Rays 53.0% 86 76 765 704
Red Sox 52.8% 86 76 813 750
Giants 52.7% 85 77 756 698
Angels 50.7% 82 80 785 763
Cardinals 50.5% 82 80 756 736
Twins 50.5% 82 80 780 762
Marlins 49.8% 81 81 738 706
Mariners 49.4% 80 82 741 741
Guardians 48.5% 79 83 734 750
Reds 47.5% 77 85 774 797
Rangers 47.1% 76 86 755 790
Royals 46.5% 75 87 731 773
Tigers 46.2% 75 87 722 771
Cubs 45.4% 74 88 740 793
Nationals 44.2% 72 90 779 836
Diamondbacks 42.9% 70 92 738 819
Rockies 42.8% 69 93 800 886
Pirates 42.4% 69 93 717 816
Athletics 41.5% 67 95 656 766
Orioles 40.2% 65 97 723 851
SOURCE: ATC Projections

And here are the simulated standings and playoffs odds:

AL East
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
Blue Jays 92 70 .505 46.2% 41.6% 41.9% 88.1% 21.3% 11.0%
Yankees 88 74 .507 25.2% 22.1% 50.0% 75.1% 13.6% 6.5%
Rays 86 76 .508 14.9% 12.8% 45.7% 60.6% 9.0% 3.7%
Red Sox 86 76 .510 13.7% 11.6% 45.4% 59.2% 8.5% 3.8%
Orioles 65 97 .521 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0%

AL Central
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
White Sox 89 73 .497 69.0% 41.3% 12.6% 81.6% 16.0% 7.5%
Twins 82 80 .505 16.7% 7.3% 20.5% 37.2% 3.8% 1.4%
Guardians 79 83 .506 8.0% 3.0% 11.7% 19.7% 1.6% 0.6%
Royals 75 87 .508 3.4% 1.1% 5.8% 9.2% 0.6% 0.2%
Tigers 75 87 .507 2.9% 0.8% 4.9% 7.8% 0.4% 0.1%

AL West
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
Astros 90 72 .497 67.5% 43.4% 14.7% 82.2% 17.5% 8.0%
Angels 82 80 .506 17.4% 8.6% 22.1% 39.5% 4.4% 1.8%
Mariners 80 82 .506 10.7% 4.9% 16.4% 27.1% 2.3% 0.8%
Rangers 76 86 .507 4.2% 1.4% 7.9% 12.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Athletics 67 95 .514 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0%

NL East
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
Braves 93 69 .513 56.6% 44.5% 32.9% 89.6% 20.4% 11.6%
Phillies 87 75 .518 20.6% 14.7% 45.8% 66.4% 8.8% 4.5%
Mets 87 75 .518 18.4% 13.1% 44.4% 62.8% 8.2% 4.2%
Marlins 81 81 .522 4.2% 2.6% 22.1% 26.2% 2.0% 0.9%
Nationals 72 90 .524 0.2% 0.1% 2.2% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0%

NL Central
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
Brewers 90 72 .502 76.3% 32.4% 8.9% 85.3% 13.9% 7.1%
Cardinals 82 80 .507 16.3% 3.6% 18.5% 34.8% 2.4% 1.0%
Reds 77 85 .511 5.1% 0.6% 7.5% 12.6% 0.5% 0.2%
Cubs 74 88 .513 1.9% 0.2% 3.2% 5.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Pirates 69 93 .516 0.4% 0.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0%

NL West
Team Proj W Proj L Strength of Sched Win Division Clinch Bye Clinch Wild Card Make Playoffs Win Pennant Win World Series
Dodgers 97 65 .504 81.9% 74.0% 15.7% 97.7% 31.5% 19.3%
Padres 86 76 .511 10.1% 8.0% 50.0% 60.2% 6.8% 3.2%
Giants 85 77 .511 7.8% 6.2% 46.2% 54.0% 5.2% 2.3%
D-backs 70 92 .522 0.0% 0.0% 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Rockies 69 93 .522 0.1% 0.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Let’s take a quick look at some of the differences between the results for the ATC projections and the FanGraphs playoff odds.

The ATC projections are more bullish on the White Sox’s chances in 2022, putting the odds of Chicago making the playoffs at 82% versus the FanGraphs Depth Charts (FGDC) figure of 72%. In the American League Central, ATC is also modeling a 5% better chance of the Guardians being part of the postseason, whereas the Twins model out 4% worse versus the FGDC simulations.

In the National League West, ATC is more bearish on the Padres. ATC gives San Diego four fewer wins on the 2022 season – equating to 60% odds of making the playoffs versus FGDC’s 77%. With the Giants predicted for an 85-win season by both models, the four-win difference amounts to a massive playoff probability decrease.

Another large difference in playoff odds can be seen with the New York Yankees. The FGDC model has them at 83% to make the postseason (31% to win the division), while ATC has them at 75% (just 25% for the division). The Baltimore Orioles are partially responsible for that, with two more expected wins according to ATC.

The full win total disparity between the two projection engines can be seen below:

Both projections have the Dodgers, Braves and Blue Jays as the teams with the highest probability of reaching the postseason; ATC gives a slight edge to the Braves over the Blue Jays. Both models also assign less than a 2% chance to the Rockies, Orioles, Athletics, Diamondbacks and Pirates making the playoffs.





Ariel is the 2019 FSWA Baseball Writer of the Year. Ariel is also the winner of the 2020 FSWA Baseball Article of the Year award. He is the creator of the ATC (Average Total Cost) Projection System. Ariel was ranked by FantasyPros as the #1 fantasy baseball expert in 2019. His ATC Projections were ranked as the #1 most accurate projection system over the past three years (2019-2021). Ariel also writes for CBS Sports, SportsLine, RotoBaller, and is the host of the Beat the Shift Podcast (@Beat_Shift_Pod). Ariel is a member of the inaugural Tout Wars Draft & Hold league, a member of the inaugural Mixed LABR Auction league and plays high stakes contests in the NFBC. Ariel is the 2020 Tout Wars Head to Head League Champion. Ariel Cohen is a fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society (CAS) and the Society of Actuaries (SOA). He is a Vice President of Risk Management for a large international insurance and reinsurance company. Follow Ariel on Twitter at @ATCNY.

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joe_schlabotnik
9 months ago

yet another projection system that seems to be higher on the phillies than the commentariat

Smiling Politely
9 months ago

I think it’s more a reflection of whether one thinks the Mets are competitive with Atlanta (for the division) or with Philly (for the WC); given the health of JDG/Scherzer, I’d choose the latter.

Werthlessmember
9 months ago

Interestingly, projected for the 8th best record and 4th best (tied) run differential.