August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 11/17/15
| 11:47 |
: hello, people!
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| 11:48 |
: the thing you do is start typing questions about baseball and life into the little box. the thing i do is come back in 15 minutes and begin answering them
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| 11:50 |
: today’s chat soundtrack will be Cannibal Ox – The Blue Vein. an all-time classic for hip hop heads. haven’t been able to stop lately
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| 11:50 |
:
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| 12:02 |
: ok!
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| 12:02 |
: let’s begin
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| 12:03 |
Has anyone tried to figure out the value that FO’s place on offensive WAR vs. defensive WAR? Intuitively, it seems like while everyone ackowledges the contribution that defense makes to WINS, guys like Nelson Cruz still get paid more than guys that are more defense-first. Is that right? |
| 12:03 |
: the Cruz deals you see are just due to the precedent that has been set throughout baseball history, which is that dingers and RBIz get paid
|
| 12:04 |
: this began to even out after Moneyball, but markets don’t correct themselves overnight
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| 12:04 |
Freddie Freeman for Alex Reyes, Randal Grichuk, and Matt Adams. Who says no? |
| 12:05 |
: “Fredi Gonzalez says absolutely Freddie Freeman will be playing 1B for the #Braves on opening day in 2016.” says this here tweet on my cell phone
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| 12:05 |
Was this year Lindor’s ceiling, floor, or somewhere in the middle? |
| 12:05 |
: Ceiling
|
| 12:06 |
: Polled a bunch of Indians writers in the press box on the last game of the year whether he’d ever finish a season with a higher wRC+ than what he just posted. Might have been unanimous unders
|
| 12:07 |
: He’s really good, but he’s not 128 true talent wRC+ good. I think he settles into 105 wRC+, +10-20 runs saved type seasons with good baserunning. A really good player. Not an offensive juggernaut
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| 12:07 |
When the umpire makes a terrible call, the catcher gets credit for good framing – correct? |
| 12:07 |
: I know BP’s latest model adjusts for umpire
|
| 12:08 |
: To what extent, I’m not sure. I’d imagine that, yes, the outlier terrible call does count for some fraction of a credit to the catcher. I know they’re at least attempting to account for this, though
|
| 12:08 |
How would you project Machado v. Arenado long term? Is Machado a clear favorite? |
| 12:08 |
: Yeah
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| 12:09 |
: It’s funny — Arenado hit 42 (!) homers this year and drove in 130 runs and he only finished with a 119 wRC+
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| 12:09 |
: Only 6 percent better than his previous season, when he hit 18 homers
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| 12:09 |
: Finished with the same wRC+ as Adam Lind
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| 12:09 |
: Coors, man
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| 12:10 |
: They’re probably similar defenders. Machado’s offensive upside over Arenado’s is massive
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| 12:10 |
Best free agent over the life of his contract Heyward or Price ? |
| 12:10 |
: Heyward
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| 12:11 |
Basically, the Padres traded $53 mil and Matt Wisler for those 4 Bo-Sox prospects, and a year of Kimbrel. Preller was disparaged for the first trade, but now doesn’t look too bad, does it? |
| 12:11 |
: Padres made out pretty well in the end, I’d say. Just like you can never evaluate a trade until the player’s involved career’s are over, you can’t evaluate a GM until his tenure with the team is over!
|
| 12:11 |
: Probably not until after that, actually
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| 12:12 |
: I still remember when the Cliff Lee for Carlos Carrasco trade was a total bust for Cleveland after 5 years
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| 12:12 |
I feel like this Red Sox trade is the worst I’ve ever seen. Did they give up more for 3 years of Kimbrel than the Blue Jays did for 4 years of Donaldson? What the hell was Dombrowski thinking? Do you think he egregiously misread the market? |
| 12:13 |
: The Red Sox acquired one of the best closers in baseball history
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| 12:13 |
: They paid a price, sure
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| 12:13 |
: They also got exactly what they’d deemed they needed. If they deemed they needed an elite closer, they couldn’t really have done much better
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| 12:15 |
: Plus they kept Moncada. They kept Devers. They kept Marrero. They kept Swihart and Rodriguez. Not like their farm system is depleted
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| 12:15 |
: Not the best argument to make — value is value regardless of what you have behind it — but I think calling it the worst you’ve ever seen is a gross overreaction
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| 12:15 |
Will you ever make The Simpson’s song “Talkin’ Softball” the chat soundtrack? |
| 12:15 |
: not a Simpson’s fan, so nope
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| 12:15 |
: /ducks
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| 12:16 |
: /cowers
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| 12:16 |
Several teams have new front offices and managers. Which of these teams have the best chance to find success under their new leadership? |
| 12:17 |
: Dombrowski is a great baseball mind who’s been successful in turning around poor situations at every job he’s had, and he has a massive payroll. I like the Red Sox chances for success under his guidance.
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| 12:17 |
Rosenthal says the Padres would like to deal Matt Kemp (surprise!), and may accomplish this by pairing him with Tyson Ross in a deal. Do they pretty much cancel out? Wouldn’t Kemp have some value to an AL club? |
| 12:18 |
: it’s probably close
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| 12:19 |
: Tyson Ross is a super valuable asset, and yes Kemp would have some value to an AL club in theory, but, m’gawd that contract
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| 12:19 |
: still can’t believe the Padres gave up Grandal for that
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| 12:19 |
Delino DeShields managed to get a vote for ROY. How rare is that for a Rule 5 draft pick? |
| 12:19 |
: this is a superb question.
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| 12:20 |
Do you think Kolten Wong breaks out this season? I like to target guys who are “post hype sleepers” and I feel Wong fits the bill. Do you see a 20/20 season coming for Kolten Wong? |
| 12:21 |
: I think Wong is a solid player and Farnsworth seems to really like his swing. Not sure what the extent of a “breakout” for him could be though
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| 12:21 |
: 20 homers seems high, but we’ve seen it happen before. Matt Carpenter hit 28 last year!
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| 12:22 |
Very interesting deal yesterday with L. Martin for Tom Wilhelmsen.. Who got the better end of the deal, and who closes in Seattle: Benoit or Carson Smith? |
| 12:22 |
: Carson Smith was a freakin’ stud last year
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| 12:23 |
Presuming the Red Sox sign (or trade for) a TOR pitcher, which of their starters are most likely to be traded? |
| 12:24 |
: probably Kelly or Miley
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| 12:24 |
: though, I’m not sure a trade would be *totally* necessary if they sign a guy like Price. Price/Buchholz/Porcello/Miley/Rodriguez and then put Kelly in the bullpen with Owens and Johnson in AAA
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| 12:24 |
: depth is important
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| 12:25 |
: and outside of that ace, the Sox don’t really have many more glaring holes that need addressed
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| 12:25 |
If Chris Johnson were a free agent, would any team offer him a major league contract? |
| 12:25 |
: yep. he’s got value on an AL club as a lefty-killer
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| 12:25 |
: he’d get a couple million though, not the 8 he’s making now.
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| 12:26 |
Cubs opening day starter 2016 Lester , Arrieta , or Price ? |
| 12:26 |
: Arrieta
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| 12:26 |
Which of the three players to accept the QO surprised you the most? |
| 12:26 |
: Rasmus
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| 12:27 |
Possible the Kimbrel trade is as simple as the new regime in Boston not liking some of their prospects as much as the old regime did? Could it have been more “what can we get for these guys we don’t want” as “what do we need to give up to get Kimbrel?” in other words? |
| 12:27 |
: I mean, I definitely don’t think DD looked at Manuel Margot and said “man, we need to get this guy out of here.”
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| 12:27 |
: But there’s always definitely an aspect of a new regime coming in, they don’t have the same attachment to prospects as the regime that drafted them and put their reputation on the line for them
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| 12:28 |
Who do you like more long-term: Correa, or Lindor? |
| 12:28 |
: Correa
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| 12:28 |
: Think we saw close to Lindor’s ceiling this year. I’m not sure we have any idea of Correa’s ceiling
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| 12:28 |
: Think you always take the higher offensive ceiling over the higher defensive ceiling, too
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| 12:29 |
Will Kris Bryant continue to be a 5-6 WAR player? Do you see room for improvement? |
| 12:29 |
: Good lord, Kris Bryant was worth 6.5 WAR this year
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| 12:29 |
: I had no idea
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| 12:30 |
: Defense and baserunning numbers seem a bit high for what is likely his true talent, but he can (and likely will) easily surpass a 136 wRC+ in his peak
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| 12:30 |
: Think he definitely has some Goldschmidt .400 OBP/40 HR seasons in him where he posts a 170 wRC+ en route to a 7-8 win seasons. That’s probably the peak
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| 12:31 |
: But yeah, an average of 5-6 wins a year seems very possible
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| 12:31 |
Speaking of framing, are FO’s fully bought into it? If they are, wouldn’t that mean that Chris Ianetta should get a really fat contract? |
| 12:32 |
: I’d say 30/30 front offices believe it’s a real, quantifiable thing, and probably have for a while
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| 12:32 |
: Now, those FO’s all certainly value it differently
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| 12:32 |
: As for your Iannetta question — no, because the market doesn’t yet pay for framing according to what the public thinks it works
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| 12:32 |
: Kind of the opposite of the Cruz question from earlier on HRs and RBIs still getting paid more than defense. Markets take a while to correct
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| 12:33 |
In my OOTP16 save, Mike Napoli hit an inside-the-park HR without the defense committing an error in an ALDS game. Is this the least realistic thing ever to happen in a video game? |
| 12:33 |
: Kurt Suzuki hit one last year without an error!
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| 12:33 |
| 12:33 |
If you ran the Cubs, what do you improve: Starting pitching, relief pitching, or contact hitting? |
| 12:34 |
: Outfield defense
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| 12:34 |
How does Steamer project Rich Hill to be worth 1.5 WAR based on 4 stars in 2014? |
| 12:34 |
: what do you project out of Rich Hill?
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| 12:34 |
: whatever your answer is, someone disagrees with it
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| 12:34 |
: no one has any idea what Rich Hill is going to do
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| 12:35 |
: Also, it’s not just based on 4 starts in 2015*. It’s based on a career
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| 12:35 |
: Hasn’t been a super great career, but the last few seasons Rich Hill has pitched (very infrequently, granted!) he’s been pretty decent. And then he was awesome
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| 12:36 |
Has anyone tried to explained the Cardinals ERA/FIP difference? |
| 12:36 |
: Ben Lindbergh’s Grantland ( 🙁 ) piece is the first that came to mind – http://grantland.com/the-tr…
|
| 12:36 |
Will Ryan Howard be out of baseball in 1 year when his contract and buyout is over? |
| 12:37 |
: no. he’ll latch on to an AL club on super cheap 1-year deal(s) for at least a year
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| 12:37 |
Who ages better in the next few years: Addison Russell, Jose Bautista, or XBoegarts? Who do you predict as the best hitter for the next 3 years or so? |
| 12:37 |
: I mean, it’s hard to compare who “ages” better when you’re talking about two guys in their early 20’s and a guy in his mid-30’s
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| 12:38 |
: As for your second question, Jose Bautista will be the best hitter over the next 3 years, by far.
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| 12:38 |
Do you see the Indians getting any impact FAs? |
| 12:38 |
: Nope. Austin Jackson or Gerrardo Parra maybe. Their big move(s) will come through trades. They have a lot of expendable, valuable young assets
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| 12:38 |
Are you named after the month or Caesar? |
| 12:39 |
: neither!
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| 12:39 |
: I’m named after my great grandfather, August, who earned a silver medal in the 1924 Olympics
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| 12:39 |
| 12:39 |
: not sure what he was named after
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| 12:40 |
The worst free agent signing of this year will be ? |
| 12:40 |
: hmm…
|
| 12:40 |
: Howie Kendrick?
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| 12:40 |
: the upside on how bad his contract could be is limited though
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| 12:41 |
: I think Justin Upton will be fine, but he’s gonna get paid a ton and has some collapse potential, IMO
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| 12:41 |
What if the White Sox decided to build around Sale, Rodon, Fulmer, Eaton and T Anderson? Trading Abreu, Quintana and possibly D Robertson for prospects, near ready ones if possible? |
| 12:41 |
: don’t see why Abreu wouldn’t be included in that group
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| 12:41 |
What do the Reda have to gain my trading Chapman now as opposed to in-season? Is it only injusry-risk? |
| 12:42 |
: Bigger market now. More teams think they’re contenders in November than in July
|
| 12:43 |
Did Boras kinda screw himself with having Wieters sign the QO? Likely takes the Orioles out of the running for Chris Davis, when they looked like one of the major players for him. Wieters easily could’ve gotten 1/12 elsewhere, no? |
| 12:43 |
: I don’t think the Orioles were real players for Davis in the first place
|
| 12:43 |
: Until they actually make a big free agent signing, I don’t buy the Davis/Cespedes/Gordon/Upton rumors
|
| 12:44 |
: That being said, I was a little surprised by Wieters taking the QO. I thought he’d get 3 years somewhere, tbh. Rangers seemed like a great fit for him
|
| 12:44 |
In regards to the Lindor Ceiling, floor or somewhere in the middle, how does Correas season rate in regard to ceiling, floor or somewhere in middle? Also, are you surprised at all how close Lindor was votes wise to Correa? The person who left Lindor off their ballot was crazy! |
| 12:45 |
: Offensively, likely somewhere in the middle for Correa. He’s not gonna be a 133 wRC+ hitter every season, probably, but I think he might have a 140 or 150 season in him at some point. Lindor doesn’t have that.
|
| 12:45 |
More likely to bounce back in 2016: Hanley Ramirez or Matt Kemp? |
| 12:46 |
: I mean I think Hanley is the better bet to be better than he was last year
|
| 12:46 |
: Hanley’s way better than an 89 wRC+ and he’ll obviously be better not playing left field
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| 12:46 |
: Kemp had a 109 wRC+ last year. Not totally sold he’s demonstrably better than that at this point
|
| 12:47 |
Can you think of a baseball comp for El-P? Became far more known later on (Run the Jewels) rather than when he really was at MVP production levels (Funcrusher Plus)? |
| 12:47 |
: great question
|
| 12:47 |
: Zobrist?
|
| 12:47 |
: was always underrated until he became overrated
|
| 12:48 |
: (not a huge Run the Jewels fan)
|
| 12:48 |
: /ducks, cowers again
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| 12:48 |
Now that Torii Hunter has retired, which active player is most likely to end up as a manager who makes baffling tactical decisions 10 years from now? |
| 12:48 |
: pick a catcher, any catcher
|
| 12:48 |
Local Chicago Tribune writer says White Sox should trade Quintana to re-stock the team. What kind of value does he have? What would you do if you were the White Sox, given the massive holes (like left side of infield)? |
| 12:48 |
: Quintana has a ton of value. He could net a couple solid prospects for sure
|
| 12:49 |
: As for what I’d do, I’d trade Jose Quintana
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| 12:49 |
: And try to trade either Melky and/or LaRoche if that’s possible. They both need to be DH/1B’s, which isn’t feasible when Jose Abreu is on the same team
|
| 12:50 |
Rich Hill is apparently going to sign by the end of the week. Who’s he going to? CALL IT AUGUST CALL IT. |
| 12:50 |
: literally gonna use a random number generator
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| 12:51 |
: Cardinals!
|
| 12:51 |
: if that happens Rich Hill is totally gonna pitch 180 innings and be worth 4 WAR next year
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| 12:51 |
To what extent do you think history drove Dombrowski to ante-up for Kimbrel? By that, I mean a) the Royals march to WS, and b) the Tigers countless bullpen implosions over the years? |
| 12:51 |
: those things both played a factor I think, yes
|
| 12:52 |
: I’ll say… 18% Royals recent success, 31% Dombrowski’s terrible Tigers bullpens, 51% Dombrowski just thinking it’s the right move in a vacuum anyway
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| 12:53 |
Hi August, glad to have you back on FG, especially as a Tribe fan ! What could be the Indians first move this offseason ? |
| 12:53 |
: appreciate it
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| 12:54 |
: looking into my crystal ball, I see Antonetti striking a deal during the Winter Meetings that sends some combo of Ramirez, Chisenhall, Perez, Urshela, Naquin, E. Gonzalez to upgrade the outfield or corner infield
|
| 12:54 |
: then they make a smaller (3/30 tops) free agent signing to fill another need
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| 12:55 |
There is a __% change Trevor Bauer is still in the Tribe’s starting rotation in August, 2016. And if he’s not in the rotation, the most likely reason is [trade][injury][moved to bullpen]. |
| 12:55 |
: in August?
|
| 12:55 |
: 77%
|
| 12:56 |
: if he’s not: trade, then bullpen, then injury
|
| 12:56 |
: gotta also factor in possible trade or injury for any other Cleveland starter. then he’s in for sure
|
| 12:56 |
I love that some artists still take music videos seriously. There was a rough patch between MTV’s prominence and YouTube becoming a real destination for music. |
| 12:56 |
: I love how awesome music videos can be today with tiny budgets
|
| 12:57 |
: rappers were making music videos in the 90’s on million-dollar budgets and they were still corny as hell
|
| 12:58 |
Does Jose Ramirez have any trade value? What about Lonnie Chisenhall? |
| 12:58 |
: yes and yes. Ramirez moreso than Chisenhall
|
| 12:58 |
Are you worried about Danny Salazar ability to work deep into games? Will this keep him from becoming a top SP? Will he go to the bullpen eventually? |
| 12:58 |
: Salazar threw 185 innings last year
|
| 12:58 |
: Averaged more than 6 a game
|
| 12:59 |
: I think he’s already close to being a top SP, and I think he still gets better
|
| 12:59 |
How are your SQL skills? |
| 1:00 |
: nonexistant
|
| 1:00 |
: really need to get around to learning the basics
|
| 1:00 |
Do the Reds trade Chapman before this calendar year is over? |
| 1:00 |
: yes
|
| 1:00 |
I’m worried about Kipnis… Should I ? |
| 1:00 |
: he’s not the player he was in the first half last year, but no reason to be worried
|
| 1:01 |
: He’s a well above-average starting second baseman. He’s easily a top-10 second baseman, pushing top 5
|
| 1:01 |
If you watched #KBOOM all season, you wouldn’t discount those baserunning numbers. We did not expect such a well-rounded game for a “slugging third baseman”. |
| 1:03 |
: He’s definitely quick. Expecting a win of baserunning value a year from him seems pretty high though
|
| 1:03 |
Are you as worried about Carlos Martinez’ shoulder as Merv is? |
| 1:03 |
: I’m worried about all shoulders
|
| 1:03 |
: coming from someone who’s had shoulders problems
|
| 1:03 |
: The ones that speak up at any point are particularly concerning
|
| 1:04 |
: The thing that’s real troubling about shoulders is there’s no Tommy John that magically fixes a shoulder. When a pitcher has a major shoulder injury, it seems to just… linger. Martinez’s teammate Jaime Garcia knows a thing or two about that
|
| 1:05 |
: Now of course, Martinez hasn’t *had* a major shoulder injury yet. But it’s definitely a little scary, especially considering this isn’t the first time it’s barked
|
| 1:05 |
Should external factors, such as the ability to lure free agents, be apart of the formula for manager WAR? Say Price signs with the Cubs and mentions reuniting with Maddon was a factor. Hard to quantify but that’s valuable right? |
| 1:05 |
: definitely
|
| 1:05 |
: “hard” to quantify should probably be “impossible” to quantify though
|
| 1:06 |
Are you going to be in Nashville applying for jobs in MLB? |
| 1:06 |
: I’m going to be in Nashville. I will not be applying for jobs. I quite like the one I just started
|
| 1:06 |
Does Eric Stamets have a future in Cleveland? |
| 1:06 |
: doubt it. might make some appearances for the glove, but the bat doesn’t seem like it has a regular spot on a 25-man roster
|
| 1:07 |
Will Delino DeShields and Odubel Herrera be productive players for their respective teams? |
| 1:07 |
: They’ll be productive. I think they both might have overachieved last year, though, and DeShields might not be a center fielder
|
| 1:07 |
Which Indians player was the biggest jerk to you? |
| 1:07 |
: honestly — it’s a great clubhouse
|
| 1:08 |
: Had this discussion with some other writers. There really isn’t a bad guy on the team
|
| 1:08 |
: Couple relievers could be a bit cranky when we talked to them after a bad outing. But for the most part it’s an awesome group of guys.
|
| 1:09 |
Who will have the best career: Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, or Shelby Miller? |
| 1:09 |
: You just named them in order of their true talent level
|
| 1:09 |
: predicting a pitcher’s career is impossible, because that means you have to predict injuries too
|
| 1:09 |
freeman for moncada, devers, benintendi…who says no…. |
| 1:10 |
: The Braves are not trading Freddie Freeman.
|
| 1:10 |
Are you Finnish, then? Do you have a Finnish basement? |
| 1:10 |
: I do come from a Finnish background, yes
|
| 1:11 |
: I will not humor your awful, awful joke
|
| 1:11 |
Are the Indians looking to move Chisenhall? I think he’d fit nicely in Pittsburgh as a 3rd baseman until Kang gets healthy and then a spell for Polanco in RF afterwards. |
| 1:11 |
: I don’t think they’re necessarily *looking* to move anyone. I think plenty of guys are freely available, though, and Chisenhall is one of them, though I kind of doubt whether he plays anywhere besides RF moving forward after what he did last year
|
| 1:12 |
Miggy ain’t got nothin’ on Peak Pujols, amirite? |
| 1:12 |
: You are right.
|
| 1:12 |
: Peak Pujols was an all-timer
|
| 1:12 |
: Peak Miggy was a really, really great bat.
|
| 1:12 |
Twitter just blew up with rumor that the Marlins might trade Jose Fernandez this offseason. |
| 1:12 |
: and David Ortiz is retiring!
|
| 1:12 |
: sad 🙁
|
| 1:12 |
Do you consider Raul Mondesi Jr a World Series Winner? |
| 1:12 |
: why not? he’s gonna get a ring
|
| 1:13 |
Should the Os and Rockies respectively say fuck it and trade Machado and Arenado? |
| 1:13 |
: no. these are guys you build a team around.
|
| 1:14 |
The diamondbacks have some excellent position player talent, but their rotation is shaky, to say the least. They’ve also been connected to Maeda and Gallardo. If they acquire both those starters, does that give them enough of a starting rotation to snare a wild card? |
| 1:14 |
: Did a radio hit yesterday and picked the Dbacks as my sleeper team for 2016. Love the Pollock/Goldy combo and that defense
|
| 1:15 |
: Mid-rotation guys are there. They’d just need a top-flight starter to go alongside a (hopefully) healthy and productive Corbin.
|
| 1:15 |
: Not sure the top-flight guy is coming, though
|
| 1:16 |
: Your scenario might be more likely, in which case, no, that team probably still isn’t a realistic contender, but they’d be in a position where a super fortunate sequencing season could keep them in the race in August and September
|
| 1:16 |
Gene Collier gave Justin Bour a second place vote for Rookie of the year. Would he have made your top 20 list of NL rookies? |
| 1:16 |
: I mean yeah he’d make top 20. I thought that pick was astounding too though
|
| 1:17 |
: Tried to justify it in some way, so I sorted the NL rookie leaderboard for RBI:
|
| 1:17 |
: 1. Bryant
2. Duffy 3. Bour |
| 1:17 |
We’ll miss Hanley in left field 🙁 |
| 1:18 |
: it really was something I’ll likely never forget. super glad it happened from an outsider’s perspective
|
| 1:19 |
Is the FG in your twitter handle for FanGraphs or Fagerstrom? |
| 1:19 |
: well it’s always been “AugustF” and then my affiliation (ABJ, MLB)
|
| 1:19 |
: figured I’d just consolidate the two
|
| 1:19 |
: really wish I could have AugustFG without the stupid underscore
|
| 1:19 |
: account isn’t even active! it’s blocked! and i still can’t have it!
|
| 1:20 |
Are the Rangers legitimate world series contenders next year? Assuming Yu stays healthy all year? |
| 1:20 |
: obviously so much depends on what happens in the offseason but yeah I mean they were almost a World Series club this year and then you add Yu Darvish
|
| 1:20 |
OK Go – kings of the modern music video |
| 1:20 |
: so good! I don’t even like their music really and I still watch the videos
|
| 1:21 |
Better player in 5 years, Clint Frazier or Bradley Zimmer? |
| 1:21 |
: Frazier
|
| 1:21 |
Cubs fans want to trade us Jorge Soler, but I agree we should not deal off a top-end starter. Is he a good fit for us? Is there a way to make a match without dealing Salazar or Carrasco? |
| 1:21 |
: I don’t think so. If Soler is an Indians uniform next year, either Salazar or Carrasco will not be
|
| 1:22 |
: That being said, in that scenario I think there would also be other ex-Cubs players in Indians uniforms
|
| 1:23 |
Question: How does David Ortiz have such a negative defensive value when he barely takes the field? Do player value models punish you for just being a DH and not contributing on defense? |
| 1:23 |
: yes, that’s it exactly
|
| 1:23 |
Craig Mish tweeted that there’s growing sentiment that the Marlins trade Jose Fernandez this offseason. If they do, what type of package would he return? Would this make him the most valuable player “available” via trade this offseason? |
| 1:23 |
: if true, yes
|
| 1:23 |
Could you ever see a pitcher throw from two radically different arm slots? Say, a guy who throws overhand fastball/changeup to opposite handed hitters and throws sidearm fastball/slider to same handed hitters? Seems like it’d be a way to mitigate arm fatigue among other advantages if a guy who pull it off. If Pat Venditte exists, a guy could manage this, right? |
| 1:23 |
: guys do this! Bronson Arroyo is the first that comes to mind
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| 1:24 |
: someone else that was active last year does this too. name isn’t coming to mind though
|
| 1:24 |
On Non-competitive pitchers you said they were “unintentional and serve no purpose.” But, with so many solid arms on the list, I would have liked to see proof that they serve no purpose. Plan on exploring this topic any more? |
| 1:24 |
: yeah, maybe that was an extreme stance to take. I tried to make it clear later in the article that the ones in the dirt can serve a purpose, but even those ones only generate like ~7% swings
|
| 1:25 |
: the ones more than 2.5 feet from the center inside, outside and high seem to serve very little purpose. 99% of those are total misses that the pitcher immediately wishes he had back, I’d imagine
|
| 1:25 |
How many extra roster spots in the playoffs would there need to be before teams started having “designated pinch runner” type guys that you sometimes see as September call ups? |
| 1:26 |
: you mean like Terrance Gore?
|
| 1:26 |
Especially with the recent evidence that suggests changing eye-levels is effective. Does a non-competitive pitch have a value that is positive enough to count for more than just another tally on a pitch count? |
| 1:26 |
: wait, what’s this evidence! I’m not doubting you, I’m just very intrigued by that
|
| 1:26 |
How much room is there between trading Quintana and full blow up? I suppose you can add a little and trade some biggies at the deadline. |
| 1:27 |
: when you’ve got Abreu, Sale and Rodon, you’re in a good spot
|
| 1:27 |
: *total* blowup doesn’t seem to make sense
|
| 1:28 |
: they just need to consolidate the next-most valuable assets into multiple pieces. the White Sox just have way too many black holes around their stars right now.
|
| 1:28 |
Does Ortiz get the Jeter retirement tour treatment or do people not care as much? |
| 1:29 |
: not gonna be Jeter-level, but it’ll be a thing
|
| 1:29 |
Machado for Urias & Seager? |
| 1:29 |
: why
|
| 1:30 |
Of the top 20 David Ortiz highlights, how many are HRs pulled down the line? Has there ever been a more boring widely-beloved player than him? |
| 1:30 |
: a lot of his biggest moments were in massively high-leverage spots. that’s not boring to me
|
| 1:31 |
What is the point? |
| 1:31 |
: seems like a good note to end on
|
| 1:31 |
: thanks for chatting everyone! tried to get to as many questions as I could. same time, same place next week!
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Do you think former prospect Hedges will ever hit enough to be a good regular catcher?