August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat – 11/3/15
11:47 |
: hey!
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11:47 |
: it’s now the offseason! we can talk about anything at all. I’ll be back around noon to begin doing that
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11:47 |
: anything!
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12:04 |
: ok!
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12:05 |
You should teach Jeff how to be on time |
12:05 |
: *looks at clock*
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12:05 |
: :
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12:05 |
: that concerned face didn’t come across in the chat.
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12:05 |
: :/
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12:06 |
Billy Burns or Billy Hamilton better in 2016? |
12:06 |
: Hamilton
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12:06 |
who is vidal ordonez’s mlb comp? |
12:06 |
: Pedro Martinez (nobody pay attention to this)
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12:06 |
If Cliff Lee doesn’t retire, where do you think he ends up? |
12:06 |
: retirement
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12:07 |
Do you think Bartolo Colon is going to retire, if not, where does he sign? |
12:07 |
: He can still pitch, so I think he sticks around
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12:08 |
: After coming so close this year, I see him latching onto a contender that could fill out their rotation with a veteran arm. Blue Jays? Nationals?
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12:08 |
Which is more of a mess, the Blue Jays PR office, or the Nats front office? |
12:08 |
: just the Nationals. the whole Nationals
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12:08 |
What is a reasonable asking price from the Padres to the Cubs on Tyson Ross? Craig Kimbrel? |
12:09 |
: the Starlin Castro-Tyson Ross rumors that came up near the trade deadline still seem to make a lot of sense. Padres would need more than just Castro, of course, but it’s a good start.
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12:09 |
: the Padres could really use, like, at least one infielder next year
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12:09 |
Realistically, who do you think will be the biggest FA addition for the Braves, and how big of a contract? |
12:10 |
: no one big, for not much money. some veteran pitcher for 2/18 or something
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12:10 |
: this seems more like an evaluation year for the Braves. win in the new park in 2017
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12:11 |
You have to comment on the Nationals situation. Is Dusty the right choice there? |
12:12 |
: I wasn’t sure I’d see Dusty Baker as a manager again, to be honest. I dunno. I think the “Dusty ruins pitchers” thing is probably a bit overblown, and he’s got experience, which counts for something
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12:12 |
: Black seemed like a much, much better fit, but we’ll see!
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12:12 |
Did you ever see that “Twilight Zone” where the guy signed a contract and they cut out his tongue and put it in a jar and it wouldn’t die, it just grew and pulsated and gave birth to baby tongues? Pretty cool, huh? |
12:12 |
How classy was it for the Red Sox and the Giants to send pizza to the next year’s World Series champions? It would be even more classier if you order me pizza while I sit here at work reading your chat. |
12:13 |
Which Met starter has the best 2016 season? Thor seems to be the most popular pick in Metsland, but watching Harvey in Game 5 and knowing he’ll be a full healthy season removed from TJ has me excited for the Dark Knight… deGrom’s pretty good too. |
12:13 |
: I really like Syndergaard
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12:13 |
You think Strasburg gets shopped now? There’s been some rumors floating around that they might try to trade him no matter who they hired as manager, but man, him under Dusty… |
12:14 |
: I’m sure he’s available. I’m not sure “shopped” is the right word. They’re not going to be disappointed if they *don’t* move Stephen Strasburg
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12:14 |
So who can Baker put in the 2 hole that has the lowest OBP for the Nats? Ian Desmond might work his was .290. |
12:14 |
: Ian Desmond’s not going to be a National!
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12:14 |
: so, Michael Taylor
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12:14 |
People say the Indians should trade Carrasco/Salazar as if they’re comparable assets. But isn’t it Kluber/Carrasco> [gap] > Salazar > [gap] > Everyone else? |
12:15 |
: yeah, Salazar is a legit No. 2 starter, but there’s certainly a gap between he and Carrasco/Kluber (this is the order in which I put them, by the way)
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12:15 |
Is Bauer/Ramsey/Y.Diaz enough to get Prado/Ozuna? |
12:15 |
: not only is it more than enough, it’s too much
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12:15 |
Cub fans blame Dusty for overworking and eventually destroying Mark Prior and Kerry Wood. Any truth to that? Can Strasburg and Scherzer survive Dusty’s wrath? |
12:15 |
: pretty sure Jeff is writing about this as we speak, so just read that thing when it’s out!
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12:16 |
Do the Nationals roll out the same roster next year minus Desmond, or do you foresee another big move(s) this offseason? |
12:16 |
: they need to address the bullpen
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12:17 |
: I think that unit looks radically different than it did at the end of this year
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12:17 |
: as for the rotation and position players, I think you see a pretty similar group
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12:18 |
: Espinosa/Turner/Escobar should be enough to handle the middle of the infield. if they sign someone, it will likely be a mid-level OF’er, maybe someone like Gerardo Parra
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12:18 |
Look into the crystal ball and tell us Bauer’s future |
12:18 |
: oh man
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12:19 |
: better than last year! innings eater who has a hard time ever unlocking frontline starter stuff due to poor command?
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12:20 |
Thanks for the non answer, jerkstrom. |
12:20 |
: the only answer is retirement. Cliff Lee is not going to pitch again
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12:20 |
Neil Walker for Andrew Cashner, who says no? |
12:20 |
: the Padres
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12:20 |
What position would you play in the Fangraphs slow pitch softball beer league? |
12:20 |
: we played whiffle ball at Spring Training last year. I played up the middle somewhere
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12:21 |
The Indians are still the favorites in the Central next year, right? I struggle to understand how they’re not better. |
12:22 |
: tough to bet against the Royals right now
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12:22 |
: I think the Indians have a very good team though
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12:22 |
Do you see the next few Tigers seasons looking more like the recent Phillies or more like the recent Yankees? |
12:23 |
: end of the Verlander/Victor/Miggy contracts have the potential to be pretty Phillies-esque
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12:23 |
: plus whatever they do this season. Because I have a feeling another big one is coming
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12:23 |
If you’re Rick Hahn, what players (trade or FA) do you target this winter? |
12:24 |
: they’re in a real interesting spot
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12:24 |
: between Abreu, LaRoche and Melky, you’ve got three players who should be DH/1B only, so feels like something’s gotta give there
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12:24 |
: they need infield help… they need back of the rotation help…
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12:25 |
: Jose Quintana could be a trade chip. Avi Garcia seems like someone that could help address those areas as well
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12:25 |
Do the Astros still have a reputation problem when it comes to players? Will they have to pay a bit more to attract FA because of that? |
12:25 |
: winning helps cure those sorts of things. Astros just did quite a bit of winning, and look like they’re going to do quite a bit more in the coming years
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12:25 |
: gonna go pour another cup of coffee! be right back
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12:27 |
Should the Mets go after Ian Desmond? He seems awfully risky but he could be a great fit. |
12:28 |
: I think the Mets are fine with Flores/Tejada/Herrera up the middle next year
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12:28 |
Do you think Mark Shapiro is scary? |
12:28 |
: he’s been nice to me
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12:29 |
The Puig trade speculation doesn’t make much sense to me, except in the sense that anyone is tradeable for a price. Is there some logic to getting rid of him that I’m not seeing? |
12:29 |
: he’s got insanely high trade value, the Dodgers have a lot of depth, and it seems like he may have worn on them
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12:29 |
Do you think a team’s playoff success helps significantly in off season free agency? |
12:29 |
: better teams are more attractive destinations, so yes
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12:30 |
A while back Jason Giambi was said to be manager material but I haven’t heard anything recently about him. Do you think we’ll ever see him manage? |
12:30 |
: he took this year off to spend with his family before making a decision on returning in a coaching role. I think you see him be a team’s hitting coach soon, yes.
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12:30 |
: tough to say about manage. Wouldn’t surprise me though. He’s awesome
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12:31 |
I really enjoyed your piece on Lucas Duda. To stay on point with the Mets, what do they need to do this offseason to remain a world series contender? Add more hitting? How would that fit into their lineup? Who would be displaced? |
12:31 |
: probably an outfielder who plays good defense
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12:31 |
: flesh out the bullpen a bit so the pre-Familia guys are less scary
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12:31 |
: they’re in a good spot, though
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12:31 |
It’s a good thing the Cubs didn’t win the world series. Then someone in the world would have to be victim to Chicago pizza. |
12:32 |
: this is a bad opinion you just gave here, Bork
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12:32 |
: Chicago pizza > NY pizza, for the record
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12:32 |
The Nationals did address the bullpen, they got Dusty Baker. Who needs a bullpen when every pitcher can go 9 innings? |
12:32 |
1. Did you miss us??? 2. Did you miss Dusty Baker??? |
12:32 |
![]() |
12:32 |
: Dustybomb
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12:33 |
I can see the Mets and Nationals getting into a trade war for Aroldis Chapman. |
12:33 |
: I like the Astros as sleeper-Chapman candidates
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12:33 |
Can Casey Jannsen ever return to glory or is he done? The velocity drop after his surgery was huge. |
12:33 |
: kinda seems done 🙁
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12:33 |
Do the Mets need to get a bat? The lineup should be decent enough next year, but it looks like a mistake to count on anything out of Wright. |
12:34 |
: Wright makes $20M next year and is the face of the franchise. you can’t not count on him
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12:34 |
Bauer will emerge as a good closer after a few more years struggling as a starter. |
12:34 |
: part of the intrigue of Bauer, though, is that he has a rubber arm. if he could pitch deeper than 5 innings into games, he could throw 220 a season
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12:35 |
: I do agree that theoretically he makes sense as a closer, but you hate to waste that kind of arm in one-inning spots
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12:35 |
‘up the middle somewhere’ sounds a lot like ‘I was too drunk to remember so I just chose a spot’ |
12:35 |
: I don’t think we were drunk in the whiffle ball game
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12:35 |
: think
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12:36 |
As a Reds fan to all Nationals fans, get ready to have your SS or CF hit #1 and #2 100% of the time. |
12:36 |
: this is a pretty terrifying consideration, given who the Nats current SS and CF are
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12:36 |
where does j-hey end up |
12:36 |
: same place he was this year
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12:36 |
Which big time pitcher suffers a ligament tear to begin 2016? |
12:36 |
: oh god
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12:37 |
: c’mon man
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12:37 |
: we’re one day into the offseason!
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12:37 |
: don’t make me think about that already
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12:37 |
What do the White Sox need to do this offseason? Some All-Star talent, yet gaping holes…. |
12:37 |
: make a bunch of trades and have a totally different looking team next year that still has Jose Abreu, Chris Sale and Carlos Rodon on it
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12:38 |
Who do you see the Mariners targeting this offseason? I’m having a hard time guessing what DiPoto’s strategy will be this offseason. Possible darkhorse Puig candidate? |
12:38 |
: I have no idea, honestly. The Mariners and the Orioles are the two teams where I have no clue what their offseason could look like
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12:38 |
: on one hand, they kind of look like blow-it-up candidates
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12:39 |
: on the other hand, Robinson Cano, Felix Hernandez, Kyle Seager and Nelson Cruz!
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12:41 |
Red Sox need starting pitcher. Who would be the best fit? |
12:41 |
: David Price
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12:41 |
Do the Rays have enough starting pitching to deal away someone? If so, who would you think most likely to get dealt to get some value back? |
12:41 |
: yeah, they do, and I think they will
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12:41 |
: Nate Karns, probably?
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12:42 |
: hard to gauge what Matt Moore’s trade value looks like, but he should be expendable
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12:42 |
: suppose you could deal Odorizzi or Smyly if the price is right, but you probably want to try your best to keep Archer-Cobb-Smyly-Odorizzi together
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12:43 |
: if they could sell high on Erasmo Ramirez (this feels weird to type) then that’s a thing they should do, too
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12:43 |
You think the Astros are going to have to sign a mid-level starter to finish out the rotation? Do they re-sign Kazmir? |
12:44 |
: that’s certainly a possibility. depends how much money they’re willing to commit. there’s been rumblings of them opening up the pocketbook this year. they could go bigger than Kazmir
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12:44 |
Does Mark Appel still project to be a major-league starting pitcher? For a “can’t miss” prospect, what happened there? |
12:45 |
: definitely, with high upside
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12:45 |
: “being a pitcher” happened
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12:46 |
Colby Rasmus will play for the ______________ in 2016. |
12:46 |
: Tigers?
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12:46 |
: Angels?
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12:46 |
The Jays declined their option on Maicer Izturis. Now here’s the question everyone wants to know. Where does he end up? |
12:46 |
: BIDDING WAR: DODGERS AND YANKEES
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12:47 |
Kyle Schwarber is limited defensively, and might have already reached his ceiling offensively. Despite that, if the 2014 draft were re-done today, would he be the #1 pick? |
12:47 |
: are the Astros still the number one pick?
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12:47 |
: if it’s an American League team, then probably yes
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12:48 |
: if it’s a National League team……. I’ll go with Rodon but it’s close
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12:48 |
Talk about Mike Trout. |
12:48 |
: I’m going to do exactly that in a post for FanGraphs that will be published like an hour after this chat completes
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12:48 |
The Indians need to push some assets in to make a run, I think. Can they get the bats they need without giving up one of their big three starters? |
12:49 |
: I think so. Lots of trade value between Jose Ramirez, Roberto Perez, Lonnie Chisenhall, Giovanny Urshela and some of their high-minors prospects like Erik Gonzalez and Tyler Naquin. Those guys all seem quite expendable, given what’s currently at the bigs
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12:50 |
: ideal Indians offseason, in my mind, is sign a guy like Austin Jackson to play center field, and then trade one or two of the guys listed above to acquire either corner infielder or right fielder
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12:51 |
Aaron Nola and Jerad Eickhoff throw 100 points higher against lefties. Is this a concern, common or nothing to worry about as Donnie Murphy will play in another division next season? |
12:51 |
: 100 points of OPS allowed, is what I assume you’re saying? if so, you’re looking at tiny, baby samples. nothing to see there
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12:51 |
Shouldn’t the Rockies be trading Car-Go? I mean, if you trade Tulo, you should just continue down that path right? If so, what are some potentially interested parties? |
12:51 |
: I think so, yes
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12:52 |
What should we expect from Matt Wisler next year? Ended year pretty well |
12:52 |
: to pitch a lot of innings for a pretty bad rotation, and to experience some bumps along the way, but probably a No. 3-ish type product in the end
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12:52 |
Will a team ever hire Barry Bonds to be hitting coach? He was a hitting savant. |
12:53 |
: I don’t think that would work too well
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12:53 |
: I feel like there’s a ceiling on how much of a coach can know about his particular craft
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12:53 |
: like it would be tough for Barry Bonds, the hitting coach, to not get frustrated when “hit a home run” as a coaching strategy doesn’t work out
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12:53 |
: “ok let’s see what you got”
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12:53 |
: *swings, double*
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12:53 |
: “i said to hit a home run. why didn’t you do that”
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12:54 |
any opinions on Byung-Ho Park? think he can stick in MLB? |
12:54 |
: he’s gonna do a lot more than stick
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12:54 |
isnt puigs value considerable down after last season? |
12:55 |
: it’s down. it’s still insanely high. he’s got as much raw talent as about anyone in the Majors, he’s 24 and he’s owed ~$19M (!) over the next 3 years
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12:55 |
: HUGE value
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12:56 |
Do the Royals move Ventura to the bullpen? |
12:56 |
: no…
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12:56 |
why does everyone think the mets are in a good spot?their offense was awful outside of one hot month that got them into the playoffs, and they are losing their best offensive player, and probably their second best. Can’t win games without scoring runs. sure they have pitching. 3/5 of the opening day rotation are TJS survivors, including someone who blew past innings limits, their defense is awful, their bullpen sucks and their manager an inept moron. they don’t even sniff the playoffs next year |
12:56 |
: this is piping hot
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12:57 |
Chances Chris Johnson is on the Indians opening day roster? |
12:57 |
: really high. the fact that he got traded once was pretty remarkable. if that contract can get moved twice, it’d be a miracle
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12:58 |
: plus, Chris Johnson as a platoon bat in a league with a designated hitter is actually somewhat valuable, once you ignore what he’s being paid
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12:58 |
What should the Rangers do with Jurickson Profar? With Odor and Andrus, aren’t they pretty set in the IF? |
12:58 |
: keep him healthy for a year and see where they’re at
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12:58 |
: god I hope he can stay healthy
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12:58 |
From a lineup theory perspective does it make sense for the Indians to bat Carlos Santana 9th, because hes so good at getting on-base yet terrible at hitting? |
12:58 |
: hoping this is a joke
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12:59 |
: I just covered the Indians for a season, though, and I have a Twitter account, so it’s probably not
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12:59 |
What should the Cubs do this offseason, in your opinion? |
1:00 |
: off the top of my head, an ideal scenario probably looks something like: sign Denard Span and John Lackey to short-term deals and trade for Tyson Ross?
|
1:00 |
: that’d be pretty good
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1:00 |
: Chris Antonetti had a great quote at the year-end meeting, though. “It’s real easy to make a wishlist in the offseason. It’s a lot harder to make any of it happen”
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1:00 |
What’s the Indians starting rotation next year? |
1:00 |
: Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, Danny Salazar, Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin
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1:00 |
Are you a believer in Abraham Almonte? |
1:01 |
: as a competent fourth outfielder, yes
|
1:01 |
: as the Opening Day center fielder on a contending ballclub, hell no
|
1:01 |
Mariners should target Navarro hard. Should be a cheap starting catcher. |
1:01 |
: they need to acquire some sort of catcher, that’s for sure
|
1:01 |
: not sure Navarro is the greatest upgrade
|
1:01 |
August, if you could be named after any other month, which would it be and why? |
1:02 |
: August, because my name is awesome
|
1:02 |
: oh
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1:02 |
: any *other* month
|
1:02 |
: I think “March” is my only other option
|
1:02 |
How does August drink his coffee? |
1:02 |
: tiny bit of creamer, tiny bit of sugar
|
1:03 |
: I want to be the guy that takes it black. I just can’t do it
|
1:03 |
Would Atlanta trading Nick Markakis make sense? He’d be a cheaper alternative without draft pick compensation with all these mid-tier OFers getting QO and expect contracts higher than 33 million/3 years which is what Nick has left. |
1:03 |
: Atlanta not signing Nick Markakis last year makes sense
|
1:03 |
: he should be tradeable, yeah
|
1:04 |
: I still can’t believe Nick Swisher plays for a National League team with one of the best first basemen in the world
|
1:04 |
Do you think the Mets are counting on anything from Jenrry next year? |
1:04 |
: counting on him being in a different organization
|
1:04 |
Do you think the Cole Hamels trade is a good baseline for a Quintana trade? |
1:04 |
: hmm….
|
1:04 |
: this is interesting
|
1:05 |
: obviously, Hamels is better than Quintana
|
1:05 |
: plus track record
|
1:05 |
: Hamels makes a ton of money, but it’s still market value price, and you’re guaranteed three years of an ace!
|
1:06 |
: Quintana barely makes anything, and you’re also guaranteed three years! of a near-ace
|
1:06 |
: I’m terrible at visualizing trade value in my head
|
1:06 |
: Quintana is really good, and has plenty of trade value. We’ll put it at that
|
1:07 |
: and the Phillies got a freaking haul for Hamels. more than people were expecting/should expect
|
1:07 |
If the Cardinals don’t resign Heyward, where could you see them spending money in the offseason? I don’t see much upgrade potential except maybe at 1B. |
1:07 |
: if they don’t sign Heyward, I think they make a run at an ace pitcher
|
1:07 |
: I think they do re-sign Heyward, though, and their offseason mostly stops there, beyond plugging in depth spots
|
1:08 |
Twins improve next year ? |
1:08 |
: this is tough, because the Twins way overachieved this year
|
1:09 |
: but then also, they get a full season of Sano, plus Buxton and Rosario probably get even better, plus Phil Hughes shouldn’t be as bad as he was
|
1:09 |
: they sure could use a shortstop or catcher. or maybe a Marco Estrada-type arm to fill out the rotation
|
1:09 |
couldnt the mets use rasmus? |
1:10 |
: they probably could, yes. not sure having him as the No. 1 CF option does great wonders towards improving their defense, though
|
1:10 |
If the Blue Jays signed Chris Davis would it be the most terrifying thing ever? |
1:10 |
: yeah
|
1:10 |
: don’t see that happening, though
|
1:10 |
: I was thinking about Chris Davis earlier, and there aren’t a lot of teams that make sense for him!
|
1:11 |
: I keep coming back to the Astros, trying to form their own mini-version of the Blue Jays lineup, with Altuve-Correa-Springer-Davis
|
1:11 |
: maybe I’m crazy
|
1:11 |
“hit a home run” is exactly how Cito Gaston coached. |
1:12 |
[Hits a home run] |
1:12 |
Man if Puig put’s it all together his contract at 27 would be INSANE! |
1:12 |
: his contract already is insane
|
1:12 |
Where does JP Crawford rank in potential between Seager, Correa, Lindor, and Russell? |
1:12 |
: somewhere after Correa
|
1:12 |
thoughts on the long looming question of why Jorge Posada is always near the top of the player search on Fangraphs? |
1:13 |
: asked this on our internal message board last week. Nobody seems to have any idea
|
1:13 |
: it’s a great wonder of the world
|
1:13 |
Higher upside all things clicking: Puig or Soler? |
1:13 |
: Puig
|
1:13 |
: easy Puig
|
1:13 |
Is it crazy to think that the Pirates should spend money to sign David Price? They seem to be at the right inflection point where spending the extra money to get Price would provide additional value beyond just the $/WAR. |
1:13 |
: that they *should*? maybe not. that they will? yes
|
1:14 |
Soler, Hendricks and prospects for Salazar? |
1:14 |
: could see this framework making sense
|
1:14 |
: might be too much from the Cubs side, honestly. and I’m really high on Salazar
|
1:14 |
In my MLB the Show offseason Price went to the Astros, Zimmerman to the Blue Jays, Cueto to the Yankees, how plausible? |
1:15 |
: I’ve got Zimmermann going to the Blue Jays in my little “be horribly wrong about predicting the offseason” spreadsheet
|
1:15 |
: don’t see the Yankees spending on an ace pitcher. Astros could, but I think it’s more likely they add a couple mid-level guys rather than one big one
|
1:15 |
So every time you chat I want to ask but always stop myself: How bad did kids make fun of your name in Middle School? |
1:15 |
: surprisingly little, actually
|
1:16 |
: I like to think I’m a pretty likable person
|
1:16 |
Twins win the AL central in 2016? |
1:16 |
: more likely that the Twins finish last, IMO
|
1:16 |
: not to say they’re not a good team
|
1:16 |
: but they’re a distant third, i think, and the Tigers and White Sox seem likely to look a lot different on Opening Day than they do now
|
1:17 |
How much more difficult does it become to find source material or write articles during the offseason? Is there such a thing as only so much material to go around? |
1:17 |
: I’ve got a TextEdit document with about 30 rainy day ideas written down on it. Between that, and the never-ending rumor mill, it shouldn’t be too tough
|
1:17 |
catcher for the cards? maybe Wieters? |
1:18 |
: the Cardinals have Yadier Molina on their team
|
1:18 |
For 3 mil the Tribe are picking up Raburn’s option yeah? |
1:18 |
: maybe? probably worth it, but a team that already has Chris Johnson on it doesn’t seem to have much use for Ryan Raburn, imo
|
1:18 |
How many years away do you think we are of understanding and “properly” using statcast results for player evaluations? |
1:18 |
: 5?
|
1:19 |
Twitter just reported, Buchholtz option picked by BSox. |
1:19 |
: a thing!
|
1:19 |
Seriously if Heyward is worth $200 m for a RF who averages 13 Hr’s the last 2 years, how much is Trout or Harper worth? |
1:19 |
: $500 million
|
1:20 |
: ok, I’ve gotta write. thanks for chatting guys!
|
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Do you see Josh Bell ever developing the projected power (20-25hr)?