August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/16
11:32 |
: heyyo! back online. we’ll start this thing up around the top of the hour
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12:11 |
: I’m here!
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12:11 |
: Was putting the finishing touches on my post. Apologies. Will run longer than usual to make up for it
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12:13 |
: Chat soundtrack: all things Bowie
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12:14 |
: Who has the most long term value: Daniel Norris, Aaron Nola, Raisel Iglesias or Chi Chi Gonzalez?
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12:14 |
: Iglesias/Nola are in a tier for me, then Norris and then Gonzalez
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12:14 |
: Chi Chi is the clear 4th option in that group
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12:15 |
: Orioles rumored to be interested in a COL outfielder. CarGo for Dylan Bundy make sense for both sides or has Bundy’s stock fallen so much even the Rockies wouldn’t be interested?
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12:15 |
: I just put up a post about why CarGo’s value is quite a bit lower than the perception of his abilities probably are
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12:15 |
: I’m not sure I do that if I’m Baltimore, even with how far Bundy’s stock has fallen. CarGo is owed a ton of money for 2 years for what may amount to a bat-only platoon player
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12:17 |
: Outside of Fangraphs, what websites/blogs have the best baseball analysis?
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12:17 |
: Grantland 🙁
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12:18 |
: obviously BP is great. Certain team blogs on SB Nation produce good material, (Lookout Landing, McCovey Chronicles, remember seeing some good stuff on the Mets blog too)
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12:18 |
: Would it be worth it for the Braves to trade Markakis? We are gonna be garbage anyways, he’s gonna be gone by the time we compete. Why not get back a prospect or two?
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12:18 |
: It’s not a bad idea, but I’m not sure what the market for Markakis would look like with how many outfielders are still available
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12:20 |
: With the Rams having just left STL for LA due to reportedly being unsatisfied with their stadium situation, are there any similar situations potentially on the horizon in MLB in the next decade or so? Team in older/lesser stadium, angling for a new stadium deal, and uses a relocation spot as leverage? Are there really any prime relocation locales in MLB?
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12:20 |
: well the A’s are probably the team that’s most lobbied/most needs a new stadium, but when they get one it likely won’t be a full relocation
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12:20 |
: they’ll move to a new location somewhere nearby, or could even build on the same land
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12:21 |
: of course Tampa Bay could move, but I don’t see it happening any time soon
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12:21 |
: Good afternoon from the frozen northcoast, August.. Bandied about is the idea that Urshela isn’t ready, so a 1 year deal with Uribe might be a good direction, what say you?
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12:21 |
: wouldn’t hate it. hard to ever hate a one-year deal — what’s to hate, really? Uribe’s production the last few years has basically been the best-case scenario for what Tribe fans could reasonably expect from Urshela this year, and a little extra seasoning in AAA for Gio couldn’t hurt
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12:22 |
: Your opinion, why have fans not embraced this Indians group with good attendance? All the Dolans or something else?
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12:23 |
: part of it is probably the rabid Browns culture that exists in Cleveland that I can’t begin to fathom. the fact that the 90’s teams never brought home a WS stings, and more than anything else, I think it might stem from fans not realizing how baseball works and cutting ties with the organization after they traded Lee/Sabathia, lost Thome, etc.
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12:24 |
: it’s really quite sad the way things turned, though. The Jake being packed 40,000 deep every night in the 90’s is a huge part of what got me into baseball in the first place. that stadium was absolutely electric
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12:26 |
: You said you live in Kent? I work in Aurora, whats that deli you were talking about the other day? Need a new spot to hit for lunch.
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12:26 |
: Franklin Square Deli!
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12:27 |
: went there yesterday, got the proscuitto and pesto melt
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12:27 |
: delicious as always
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12:27 |
: they should start comping me for all the free advertising I give them in this chat
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12:27 |
: As an aside.. how disgusted are you with the state of the Browns? Sadness appears to be an optimistic appraisal..
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12:27 |
: stopped caring several years ago
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12:27 |
: football in general has grown to disgust me
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12:28 |
: White Sox have financial constraints, but need to be going for it. Doesn’t Austin Jackson make a ton of sense for them as a lower-budget option? Push Eaton to RF, and the OF looks alot better. A-Jax might rebound, and if not, Avisail still around as a fallback. Thoughts?
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12:29 |
: I’m not sure how much that actually improves their roster, to be honest. Maybe a win? Kinda feels like it should be a big-time acquisition or bust
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12:29 |
: Jessica Mendoza is back in the booth for SNB. Good good move for her, ESPN and fans everywhere. Only crotchety old guys that yell “Get off my lawn!” would be opposed to her calling a game.
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12:29 |
: Yeah, this is excellent news
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12:30 |
: I remember remarking during the postseason how it’s interesting that you rarely see broadcasters let go due to lack of performance. Seems like there would have to be a scandal or Harold leaving on his own accord to shake things up
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12:30 |
: the right moves were made
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12:31 |
: Anyone who yells get off my lawn will realize if they actually listen to Mendoza that she’s an incredibly insightful analyst
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12:31 |
: You are 1,441 minutes late. Way to assert your dominance over Sullivan
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12:31 |
: started an AT&T civil war yesterday
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12:31 |
: What happened to your internet yesterday?
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12:32 |
: no idea! Monday afternoon around 3pm I left my apartment and two AT&T trucks were in my driveway. returned home around 8 and my internet and cable were totally shot. Had an AT&T technician come over yesterday morning and it took him forever to fix things. He was fuming as he left, said something to the effect of: “I’m trying like hell to figure out who did this, because I’m pissed. He screwed us. Totally screwed us!”
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12:32 |
: then kinda stormed off
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12:32 |
: it was very entertaining
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12:33 |
: except for the whole “having no internet for 36 hours for no reason” part
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12:33 |
: Now that Hawk Harrelson will officially be replaced by Jason Benetti for 81 games, would you say you are (a) excited, (b) relieved, or (c) intrigued?
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12:33 |
: d) affects my life in no way
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12:35 |
: If the A’s become the only team at the Coliseum, I predict they install a Diamondbacks-style pool full of sewer backup. Do you see Adam Warren meeting his optimistic projection this year?
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12:35 |
: enjoyable non-sequitor
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12:35 |
: no, I like Warren, but I don’t like him *that* much
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12:36 |
: as far as swingman long relievers/spot starters go, he’s about as good as it gets, thouh
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12:36 |
: though*
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12:36 |
: Prices for pitching seem outrageous this winter, compared to position players (Leake got more than Gordon!). If you were the Mets or Indians, would you have been trying to trade one of the young pitchers for a bounty?
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12:36 |
: yeah, and I’m sure they were (Indians at least), but it doesn’t mean I’d be itching to move someone
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12:36 |
: the keyword there is bounty
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12:37 |
: The cubs are still trying to make deals…. while every friggin writer is lauding the team, as is. Isn’t that an obvious bias / buying in on a good story. I agree, they have the most talent. But, I don’t think they really improved and they should’ve acquired either Greinke or Price, to actually move the needle. Moving the game’s best RF, to CF, has raised no red flags?!?! Lackey is 37! Zobrist will have less than 20 combined SB and HR. Why keep Bryant at 3b? Schwarber is a DH.
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12:37 |
: really, really good teams can still try to improve
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12:37 |
: if you agree they have the most talent, why would you be confused by writers lauding them?
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12:39 |
: they’ve certainly improved. Lackey is 37 and was been fantastic as a 35- and 36-year-old. Heyward was the game’s best right fielder in part because he was amazing enough defensively that he can handle CF. HRs and SBs aren’t the only ways players provide value to a team. Bryant is a good third baseman? Schwarber’s bat for a left fielder could easily outweigh his defensive shortcomings
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12:39 |
: no reason to not be happy if you’re a Cubs fan now
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12:40 |
: Thought son the Giants big offseason?
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12:40 |
: like it — they’re back to being a contender. would still be a little worried about the rotation
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12:41 |
: favorite “holy shit” stat? does anything top babe ruth’s hitting more homeruns in a season than every other team? bonds being intentionally walked more than the next dude walked?
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12:41 |
: yeah, pick a Bonds stat, any Bonds stat
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12:42 |
: I’m really partial to the one — and I’m gonna totally butcher this — but if you sort all-time OPS leaderboards by lefty hitters against lefty batters, it’s like 70 righties, then Bonds, then like 100 more righties or something
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12:43 |
: just looked it up
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12:44 |
: there’s actually only like 9 righties ahead of Bonds
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12:44 |
: and then like 60 more after him until the next lefty
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12:44 |
: Effectively Wild did an episode about Barry Bonds as the Marlins’ new hitting coach and guessed that he’s not going to last very long. You think he makes it through the season?
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12:44 |
: I definitely dont think he starts next season as hitting coach
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12:44 |
: whether or not the move happens mid-season or offseason is harder. I’m gonna guess mid-season, though. Like July
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12:44 |
: How mad are you going to be when the 8 seed Knicks upset the cavs?
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12:44 |
: lol
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12:45 |
: When your parents named you, was their objective to make your name sound as much like a protagonist in a classic american novel from the 1930s as it possibly could?
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12:45 | : nope! goal was to make my name sound as much like my great grandfather’s name as possible |
12:45 |
: yeah that’s right I just dropped a wiki article namedrop
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12:46 |
: Do you think Starlin Castro improves?
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12:47 |
: improves… on last year? Yeah, probably. He had a career year just one season ago and is still 25!
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12:47 |
: now when you say improve, if you mean “reach a new level of true talent,” then no, I kinda doubt it
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12:47 |
: we’ve seen enough of Starlin Castro to probably know roughly what he is
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12:47 |
: but there’s no reason he couldn’t put up a 115 wRC+ again and play good second base defense
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12:48 |
: How you like my chicken, son?
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12:48 |
: think I’ve had KFC maybe once or twice in my life
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12:48 |
: Norm MacDonald’s comedy >>>>>> fried chicken
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12:48 |
: one of the funniest people ever. so underrated
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12:48 |
: Does Cleveland have enough money for Austin Jackson?
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12:49 |
: I HAVE to imagine that if they really wanted Austin Jackson they could go get him
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12:49 |
: then again it’s Cleveland
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12:50 |
: The pirates brass pretty much said at their mini-camp that they are planning on having cole and Liriano pitch normal workloads but are going to use multi-inning relievers in tandem with their 3-5 guys because that plan (to limit guys to 90 or so pitches) worked very well with JA Happ. do you think this is a viable strategy or will it blow up in their faces?
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12:50 |
: the key to executing this is having strong bullpen depth in the high minors
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12:50 |
: the reason we haven’t seen more of this strategy is the grind will wear down relievers
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12:51 |
: Any chance BAL really deals Gausman? Guy is such a stud!
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12:51 |
: I wouldn’t be surprised by it all. The way they’ve handled him so far is so strange, it would be a fitting ending
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12:51 |
: And, while I agree that he’s a very exciting and still-promising young talent, his ML performance to date doesnt exactly scream stud quite yet
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12:52 |
: What do you make of Ian Kennedy’s HR (and hence ERA) spike last season? KC seems to be closing in on signing him. The K suppresses home runs big time. Rebound candidate in KC or beginning of the end for a 30+ year old?
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12:52 |
: surprised by Kansas City’s interest in him
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12:52 |
: Gallardo makes more sense IMO
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12:52 |
: the K does suppress home runs, yeah, but Kennedy is coming from PETCO, after all
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12:53 |
: last year’s HR/FB% was fluky, for sure, but when you give up bombs, you give up bombs
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12:54 |
: I’d expect a rebound in the sense of “he won’t be as bad as he was last year,” but a reasonable expectation would be a totally average (4 ERA) innings eater who has a pretty nasty floor
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12:55 |
: Shouldn’t the Rockies have a trade lined-up BEFORE signing Parra? Seems like they lost some leverage by clearly having too many OF. Cubs clearly had Castro trade done BEFORE signing Zobrist, which was the right way to do it, IMO….
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12:55 |
: Yeah, I thought about this yesterday
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12:56 |
: Especially given how flawed all those outfielders are. I don’t think teams will necessarily be pressing to acquire any of them, and if the Rockies don’t lower asking prices, there’s no reason they couldn’t just say “Fine, keep all 4”
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12:56 |
: You don’t like FiveThirtyEight?
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12:56 |
: yeah, Rob Arthur and now of course Ben are awesome
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12:58 |
: Closer predictions for COL or MIL? Any guys you like or feel will win the jobs?
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12:58 |
: Will Smith is interesting in MIL. He’s kind of had a LOOGY label throughout his career but hasn’t ran a discernible platoon split and was actually better against righties last year
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12:59 |
: Jeremy Jeffress might be the more logical candidate, with Smith remaining a matchup guy
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12:59 |
: they don’t have much else in the way of quality lefties, so you might wanna keep Smith’s role flexible
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1:00 |
: as for Colorado, seems like Motte?
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1:00 |
: “closer experience”
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1:00 |
: he’s not been very good though. strikeout rate is alarming. Justin Miller might be the best option, he had great peripherals last season. But I’d bet on Motte getting it to start the year
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1:01 |
: Two deals.. Atlanta & Cleveland: Markakis for Rob Kaminsky and Colorado & Cleveland: Carlos Gonzalez for Carlos Santana.. Which one (or both of these deals) would make sense?
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1:01 |
: second one makes no sense for Cleveland
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1:01 |
: something like the first one could make sense
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1:02 |
: Markakis is also only a marginal upgrade over what Cleveland already has. they’re probably not looking to move a prospect for that little of an improvement
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1:02 |
: Why is no one talking about Justin Morneau?
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1:03 |
: 35-year-old league-average hitters with injury problems who can only play first base aren’t super enticing
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1:03 |
: Are my PHILS going to find enough ABs for Ruf to make an impact? He’s a 30 HR guy waiting to happen with enough plate appearances.
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1:03 |
: yeah, he should play against every left-handed pitcher
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1:03 |
: and never face a righty, ever
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1:04 |
: which is why he’ll never get enough plate appearances to actually reach 30 HR
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1:04 |
: Which rotation you got for 2016: Indians, Mets, or field?
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1:04 |
: what are we using for this? year-end WAR? FIP?
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1:04 |
: I almost always take the field
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1:05 |
: Indians and Mets are the clear 1/2 rotations for me, but if you’re also giving me the Cubs, Dodgers, Nats, etc. I’ll take the field
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1:07 |
: How many of the Indians games will you be attending once you move downtown? I’m jealous. I’m thinking of moving downtown myself (Mayfield currently), it should be an exciting year.
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1:07 |
: well I’ll be at all of them for work reasons
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1:07 |
: most all of them, at least
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1:07 |
: moving a block away from the stadium makes work commutes pretty painless!
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1:08 |
: What is your preferred method of watching games during the season? Do you like focusing on one game or having multiple on?
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1:08 |
: I struggle to watch more than one game
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1:08 |
: I’ll usually find a pitching matchup I like and use that as my “main” game
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1:08 |
: then during commercials I’ll find an at-bat I want to see and watch that
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1:08 |
: then eventually return to my main game
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1:09 |
: give me one good reason the Reds signing Alfredo Rodriguez makes sense
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1:10 |
: because he’s young and they think he’ll be good? why not? Cozart is a soon-to-be FA, there’s not an obvious replacement, and the Reds are rebuilding
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1:11 |
: don’t you at least get internet like over your phone? Us cool new kids on the block can use our phones to “tether” to computers, sharing the internet connection.
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1:11 |
: yeah! Dave explained this to me, but my service provider charges for tethering, I do believe…
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1:11 |
: I tried to chat over the phone but it wouldve been a pain in the ass
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1:11 |
: do you think the Reds have taken the wrong philosophy in their return on trades? they are targeting ML ready or close players instead of quantity or high-upside players further away from the majors. i would think the latter should be their approach given the division for the next several years and the current lack of impact talent on the team
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1:11 |
: Yeah, I’m not in love with what they’ve done
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1:12 |
: though it’s entirely possible that it’s less of a “strategy” and more of a “we waited to long to move these guys and no nobody will give us actual high-upside players”
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1:12 |
: Polanco is going to push 5 WAR this year? Not many guys hit it as hard with same contact rate as him. Batted 320 on 46 balls in play between 100-104 mph.
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1:12 |
: yeah, I think there’s definitely room for some power gains in there too
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1:13 |
: he’s got the frame, he isn’t an extreme ground ball hitter
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1:13 |
: 5 WAR is asking a lot, but I’m a Polanco fan
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1:13 |
: How disappointing will th mets be next year. I am trying to prepare myself for it mentally. After being so close, and what is expected, its going to take me months to come to grips with it
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1:14 |
: well the first step is you can’t allow “anything less than WS” to be a disappointment
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1:14 |
: because then it’s a near-certainty you’ll be disappointed
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1:15 |
: the thing the Mets have going for them is that they’re one of, like, eight teams in the National League that has a realistic shot at occupying one of the five playoff spots
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1:15 |
: so those are decent odds
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1:15 |
: I think they’re closer to the bottom of those eight teams than the top, but worst case scenario is you get to watch awesome pitchers pretty much every day on a .500 team!
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1:15 |
: that’s not too bad
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1:15 |
: Which team/teams do you view as non-playoff teams, but an Upton/Cespedes/Davis signing would make them a playoff team in your mind?
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1:16 |
: they’re not gonna push an NL team over the top
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1:16 |
: they’d just make a contender a stronger contender
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1:16 |
: in the AL, all 15 teams are playoff contenders in my mind, so the impact would be greater
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1:18 |
: Historically in baseball, do left handed-hitters struggle more against same-handedness than right-handed hitters do? Why is that, because RHH see more RHP?
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1:18 |
: last year lefties had an 84 wRC+ vs. lefties
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1:18 |
: righties had a 90 wRC+ against righties
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1:18 |
: so yeah, there’s a bit of a gap
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1:19 |
: as to why, I’m not entirely sure! your explanation makes a lot of sense
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1:19 |
: How much of a difference would Justin Upton make to a currently uninspiring indians outfield of chisenhall, Almonte and davis?
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1:19 |
: huge
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1:19 |
: never gonna happen though
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1:19 |
: So, is your middle name Oliver too, then?
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1:20 |
: Dylan
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1:20 |
: changing that soon though!
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1:20 |
: If you were the White Sox GM, which of the remaining free agents would you target?
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1:20 |
: if they can actually afford him, Cespedes makes the most sense because of his defense
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1:20 |
: if not, Fowler, if not him, then probably stand pat
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1:20 |
: Don’t the Indians and Rockies match up well for a SP for OF trade? What is the best trade scenario in your mind?
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1:21 |
: I think so. I proposed yesterday that some sort of trade involving Roberto Perez/Rob Kaminsky/Cody Anderson for Dickerson would make sense. Would imagine the Rockies would demand Mike Clevinger which would give Cleveland some pause
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1:22 |
: Can you believe that the indians rotation could have been Kluber, Carrasco, Archer, Salazar and Bauer if Archer hadn’t been traded to the Cubs for Frickin’ Mark Derosa!
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1:22 |
: who could’ve seen this coming, though?
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1:22 |
: also entirely likely that Chris Archer never becomes CHRIS ARCHER without Rays player development system
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1:23 |
: Astros can’t keep running Gattis and his sub-.300 OBP out there every day, can they?
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1:23 |
: Give him another year — he had a 126 wRC+ just a year ago
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1:23 |
: Why do I have this name? Doesn’t the future look bright and aren’t I at least partially responsible?
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1:23 |
: I’d never heard this before but I love it
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1:24 |
: The name comes from all the yesterdays you ruined
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1:24 |
: I do absolutely love what the Phillies did last year, though. They look to be set up very well for the future
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1:25 |
: The Cubs are going to win the damn World Series, aren’t they?
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1:25 |
: probably not!
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1:25 |
: but they’re more likely than the rest of the teams, I’d say
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1:25 |
: Regarding the recent minor Dodger moves: seems their depth has gotten to the point where valuable players need to be jettisoned to make room on 40-man roster. Is that your take on the moves with Wieland, etc.,that non-40 man status is part of the value proposition attached to lesser players?
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1:25 |
: yep. if there’s one identifiable trait that can be attributed to Friedman’s time in LA, it seems like it’s building depth
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1:25 |
: they have an insane amount of depth. Wieland is a good piece
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1:27 |
: Are you Finnish? rate your sisu on an 80-20 scale
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1:27 |
: Finnish ancestors, yeah, though David Laurila claimed at the Winter Meetings that I wasn’t a true finn, and the fact that I had to look up what sisu is probably means I’m like a 30
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1:28 |
: With KC looking at the Kennedy/Gallardo tier, wouldn’t that make them extremely likely to have to trade for another stud at the deadline (like Cueto) to make a WS run?
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1:28 |
: yeah, I have a hard time envisioning a Ventura-Volquez-Kennedy led rotation going to a WS
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1:28 |
: then again we’ve had a hard time envisioning anything the Royals have done the last couple years, so who knows!
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1:29 |
: Steamer has Fransisco Cervelli regressing by almost 1.5WAR. I get he has injury trouble, but if he stays healthy isn’t that a bit pessimistic?
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1:29 |
: yeah. projection systems are always slow to buy into player breakouts
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1:29 |
: on the contrary, fans are probably too aggressive in buying into breakouts
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1:29 |
: but I’ll take the over on Cervelli’s projection, for usre
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1:29 |
: sure*
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1:30 |
: Dyson/Orlando platoon an easy 3-win scenario? I really don’t think Royals have to go and a stopgap FA before Starling hits the majors.
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1:31 |
: I agree, and I’m really excited to see what Dyson can do getting regular playing time. 3 WAR doesn’t seem at all out of reach
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1:31 |
: Dyson has been worth 9.6 WAR in 1200 plate appearances!
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1:31 |
: that’s like a five-win player!
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1:31 |
: defensive numbers still need regressed, but as long as he remains deployed efficiently, which he will in a platoon situation, he’s a really interesting player
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1:32 |
: Rockies must have figured they would sign Parra for $30 mil, who would replace Car-Go without much drop-off, then trade Car-Go for prospects, thereby a) saving $10 mil, b) getting prospects, and c) not getting worse, maybe better. What could go wrong?
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1:32 |
: what could go wrong is them having to settle for an underwhelming return for CarGo
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1:32 |
: Jeurys Familia will be one of the top __ closers in baseball this year
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1:32 |
: well “closers” is an interesting distinction because it removes Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller from the equation!
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1:33 |
: 5?
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1:33 |
: 3, if I’m aggressive
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1:33 |
: Much debate about the indians top pitching prospect. Aiken, Sheffield, Kaminsly, Clevinger. How would you rank them?
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1:33 |
: Clevinger, Sheffield, Aiken, Kaminsky
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1:33 |
: Kaminsky just because he seems to be a low-ceiling guy
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1:35 |
: Olney says Cubs have 4th best rotation in Baseball. (After Mets, Indians, Cards). You agree with that?
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1:35 |
: might even say third
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1:36 |
: I came to Cleveland from New Zealand in 2007 and became a huge baseball and Indians fan. After seeing peak Grady Sizemore, OBP machine Shin Soo Choo and hitting machine Michael Brantley, it depresses me to know that the opening day outfield in 2016 will be Davis, Chisenhall and Almonte.
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1:36 |
: thinking about Grady Sizemore’s early days in any way is a surefire way to get sad
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1:36 |
: do you play fantasy baseball or are you kinda too cool for school on that front like Cameron/Sullivan?
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1:36 |
: I play in one league. Just prefer not to talk/answer questions about it
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1:36 |
: Does it still blow your mind that Randy Johnson was having his best seasons after a DECADE of big-league pitching and in his late 30’s? He had a 9+ win season at age 40!
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1:37 |
: at the height of the steroid era? not too mind-blowing
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1:37 |
: am I an above average mlb regular?
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1:37 |
: I think you could be
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1:37 |
: defensive metrics were really surprising last year. not totally sure what to make of those quite yt
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1:38 |
: if you can stick at shortstop, you’ve certainly got the bat to be an above-average starter.
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1:38 |
: Who do you prefer, upton or cesspitdust?
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1:38 |
: Cespedes
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1:39 |
: What happens first another team in Canada (Montreal) or a new franchise in Cuba?
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1:39 |
: Canada
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1:39 |
: Anthony Rizzo has dropped some weight and added some muscle, is in “best shape of life” , can he give Harper a run for MVP ?
|
1:39 |
: sure. I’d say he gave him a run last year
|
1:39 |
: as much as anyone gave Harper a run, at least
|
1:39 |
: Is perez/Kaminsly fair for Dickerson? Don’t want cargo. Too much baggage.
|
1:40 |
: yeah I think that’s close
|
1:40 |
: Are you more confident on January 13 2016 that the Cubs will make the playoffs than you were of the Nats making the playoffs on January 13 2015?
|
1:40 |
: Actually might have been higher on the Nats last year
|
1:40 |
: Betts for syndergaard who says no
|
1:40 |
: both
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1:41 |
: Thanks for the shoutout!
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1:41 |
: keep doing you
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1:42 |
: alright guys, extra-long chat edition over!
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.