August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 1/13/16

august fagerstrom: heyyo! back online. we’ll start this thing up around the top of the hour

august fagerstrom: I’m here!

august fagerstrom: Was putting the finishing touches on my post. Apologies. Will run longer than usual to make up for it

august fagerstrom: Chat soundtrack: all things Bowie

Steve: Who has the most long term value: Daniel Norris, Aaron Nola, Raisel Iglesias or Chi Chi Gonzalez?

august fagerstrom: Iglesias/Nola are in a tier for me, then Norris and then Gonzalez

august fagerstrom: Chi Chi is the clear 4th option in that group

mtsw: Orioles rumored to be interested in a COL outfielder. CarGo for Dylan Bundy make sense for both sides or has Bundy’s stock fallen so much even the Rockies wouldn’t be interested?

august fagerstrom: I just put up a post about why CarGo’s value is quite a bit lower than the perception of his abilities probably are

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure I do that if I’m Baltimore, even with how far Bundy’s stock has fallen. CarGo is owed a ton of money for 2 years for what may amount to a bat-only platoon player

The Dude of NY: Outside of Fangraphs, what websites/blogs have the best baseball analysis?

august fagerstrom: Grantland 🙁

august fagerstrom: obviously BP is great. Certain team blogs on SB Nation produce good material, (Lookout Landing, McCovey Chronicles, remember seeing some good stuff on the Mets blog too)

Ben G: Would it be worth it for the Braves to trade Markakis? We are gonna be garbage anyways, he’s gonna be gone by the time we compete. Why not get back a prospect or two?

august fagerstrom: It’s not a bad idea, but I’m not sure what the market for Markakis would look like with how many outfielders are still available

Gyorkarse: With the Rams having just left STL for LA due to reportedly being unsatisfied with their stadium situation, are there any similar situations potentially on the horizon in MLB in the next decade or so? Team in older/lesser stadium, angling for a new stadium deal, and uses a relocation spot as leverage? Are there really any prime relocation locales in MLB?

august fagerstrom: well the A’s are probably the team that’s most lobbied/most needs a new stadium, but when they get one it likely won’t be a full relocation

august fagerstrom: they’ll move to a new location somewhere nearby, or could even build on the same land

august fagerstrom: of course Tampa Bay could move, but I don’t see it happening any time soon

GSon: Good afternoon from the frozen northcoast, August.. Bandied about is the idea that Urshela isn’t ready, so a 1 year deal with Uribe might be a good direction, what say you?

august fagerstrom: wouldn’t hate it. hard to ever hate a one-year deal — what’s to hate, really? Uribe’s production the last few years has basically been the best-case scenario for what Tribe fans could reasonably expect from Urshela this year, and a little extra seasoning in AAA for Gio couldn’t hurt

Mike J: Your opinion, why have fans not embraced this Indians group with good attendance? All the Dolans or something else?

august fagerstrom: part of it is probably the rabid Browns culture that exists in Cleveland that I can’t begin to fathom. the fact that the 90’s teams never brought home a WS stings, and more than anything else, I think it might stem from fans not realizing how baseball works and cutting ties with the organization after they traded Lee/Sabathia, lost Thome, etc.

august fagerstrom: it’s really quite sad the way things turned, though. The Jake being packed 40,000 deep every night in the 90’s is a huge part of what got me into baseball in the first place. that stadium was absolutely electric

Hungry: You said you live in Kent? I work in Aurora, whats that deli you were talking about the other day? Need a new spot to hit for lunch.

august fagerstrom: Franklin Square Deli!

august fagerstrom: went there yesterday, got the proscuitto and pesto melt

august fagerstrom: delicious as always

august fagerstrom: they should start comping me for all the free advertising I give them in this chat

GSon: As an aside.. how disgusted are you with the state of the Browns? Sadness appears to be an optimistic appraisal..

august fagerstrom: stopped caring several years ago

august fagerstrom: football in general has grown to disgust me

Zonk: White Sox have financial constraints, but need to be going for it. Doesn’t Austin Jackson make a ton of sense for them as a lower-budget option? Push Eaton to RF, and the OF looks alot better. A-Jax might rebound, and if not, Avisail still around as a fallback. Thoughts?

august fagerstrom: I’m not sure how much that actually improves their roster, to be honest. Maybe a win? Kinda feels like it should be a big-time acquisition or bust

some guy: Jessica Mendoza is back in the booth for SNB. Good good move for her, ESPN and fans everywhere. Only crotchety old guys that yell “Get off my lawn!” would be opposed to her calling a game.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, this is excellent news

august fagerstrom: I remember remarking during the postseason how it’s interesting that you rarely see broadcasters let go due to lack of performance. Seems like there would have to be a scandal or Harold leaving on his own accord to shake things up

august fagerstrom: the right moves were made

august fagerstrom: Anyone who yells get off my lawn will realize if they actually listen to Mendoza that she’s an incredibly insightful analyst

j6takish: You are 1,441 minutes late. Way to assert your dominance over Sullivan

august fagerstrom: started an AT&T civil war yesterday

Gyorkarse: What happened to your internet yesterday?

august fagerstrom: no idea! Monday afternoon around 3pm I left my apartment and two AT&T trucks were in my driveway. returned home around 8 and my internet and cable were totally shot. Had an AT&T technician come over yesterday morning and it took him forever to fix things. He was fuming as he left, said something to the effect of: “I’m trying like hell to figure out who did this, because I’m pissed. He screwed us. Totally screwed us!”

august fagerstrom: then kinda stormed off

august fagerstrom: it was very entertaining

august fagerstrom: except for the whole “having no internet for 36 hours for no reason” part

Mike: Now that Hawk Harrelson will officially be replaced by Jason Benetti for 81 games, would you say you are (a) excited, (b) relieved, or (c) intrigued?

august fagerstrom: d) affects my life in no way

Brett W: If the A’s become the only team at the Coliseum, I predict they install a Diamondbacks-style pool full of sewer backup. Do you see Adam Warren meeting his optimistic projection this year?

august fagerstrom: enjoyable non-sequitor

august fagerstrom: no, I like Warren, but I don’t like him *that* much

august fagerstrom: as far as swingman long relievers/spot starters go, he’s about as good as it gets, thouh

august fagerstrom: though*

Julio Pepper: Prices for pitching seem outrageous this winter, compared to position players (Leake got more than Gordon!). If you were the Mets or Indians, would you have been trying to trade one of the young pitchers for a bounty?

august fagerstrom: yeah, and I’m sure they were (Indians at least), but it doesn’t mean I’d be itching to move someone

august fagerstrom: the keyword there is bounty

Craig in Chicago: The cubs are still trying to make deals…. while every friggin writer is lauding the team, as is. Isn’t that an obvious bias / buying in on a good story. I agree, they have the most talent. But, I don’t think they really improved and they should’ve acquired either Greinke or Price, to actually move the needle. Moving the game’s best RF, to CF, has raised no red flags?!?! Lackey is 37! Zobrist will have less than 20 combined SB and HR. Why keep Bryant at 3b? Schwarber is a DH.

august fagerstrom: really, really good teams can still try to improve

august fagerstrom: if you agree they have the most talent, why would you be confused by writers lauding them?

august fagerstrom: they’ve certainly improved. Lackey is 37 and was been fantastic as a 35- and 36-year-old. Heyward was the game’s best right fielder in part because he was amazing enough defensively that he can handle CF. HRs and SBs aren’t the only ways players provide value to a team. Bryant is a good third baseman? Schwarber’s bat for a left fielder could easily outweigh his defensive shortcomings

august fagerstrom: no reason to not be happy if you’re a Cubs fan now

Fan: Thought son the Giants big offseason?

august fagerstrom: like it — they’re back to being a contender. would still be a little worried about the rotation

kramer: favorite “holy shit” stat? does anything top babe ruth’s hitting more homeruns in a season than every other team? bonds being intentionally walked more than the next dude walked?

august fagerstrom: yeah, pick a Bonds stat, any Bonds stat

august fagerstrom: I’m really partial to the one — and I’m gonna totally butcher this — but if you sort all-time OPS leaderboards by lefty hitters against lefty batters, it’s like 70 righties, then Bonds, then like 100 more righties or something

august fagerstrom: just looked it up

august fagerstrom: there’s actually only like 9 righties ahead of Bonds

august fagerstrom: and then like 60 more after him until the next lefty

Bradford Sharpe: Effectively Wild did an episode about Barry Bonds as the Marlins’ new hitting coach and guessed that he’s not going to last very long. You think he makes it through the season?

august fagerstrom: I definitely dont think he starts next season as hitting coach

august fagerstrom: whether or not the move happens mid-season or offseason is harder. I’m gonna guess mid-season, though. Like July

PS: How mad are you going to be when the 8 seed Knicks upset the cavs?

august fagerstrom: lol

Zach: When your parents named you, was their objective to make your name sound as much like a protagonist in a classic american novel from the 1930s as it possibly could?

august fagerstrom: nope! goal was to make my name sound as much like my great grandfather’s name as possible https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/August_Fager

august fagerstrom: yeah that’s right I just dropped a wiki article namedrop

PS: Do you think Starlin Castro improves?

august fagerstrom: improves… on last year? Yeah, probably. He had a career year just one season ago and is still 25!

august fagerstrom: now when you say improve, if you mean “reach a new level of true talent,” then no, I kinda doubt it

august fagerstrom: we’ve seen enough of Starlin Castro to probably know roughly what he is

august fagerstrom: but there’s no reason he couldn’t put up a 115 wRC+ again and play good second base defense

Norm MacDonald Colonel Sanders: How you like my chicken, son?

august fagerstrom: think I’ve had KFC maybe once or twice in my life

august fagerstrom: Norm MacDonald’s comedy >>>>>> fried chicken

august fagerstrom: one of the funniest people ever. so underrated

JZ: Does Cleveland have enough money for Austin Jackson?

august fagerstrom: I HAVE to imagine that if they really wanted Austin Jackson they could go get him

august fagerstrom: then again it’s Cleveland

Neil: The pirates brass pretty much said at their mini-camp that they are planning on having cole and Liriano pitch normal workloads but are going to use multi-inning relievers in tandem with their 3-5 guys because that plan (to limit guys to 90 or so pitches) worked very well with JA Happ. do you think this is a viable strategy or will it blow up in their faces?

august fagerstrom: the key to executing this is having strong bullpen depth in the high minors

august fagerstrom: the reason we haven’t seen more of this strategy is the grind will wear down relievers

Craig in Chicago: Any chance BAL really deals Gausman? Guy is such a stud!

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t be surprised by it all. The way they’ve handled him so far is so strange, it would be a fitting ending

august fagerstrom: And, while I agree that he’s a very exciting and still-promising young talent, his ML performance to date doesnt exactly scream stud quite yet

Jason: What do you make of Ian Kennedy’s HR (and hence ERA) spike last season? KC seems to be closing in on signing him. The K suppresses home runs big time. Rebound candidate in KC or beginning of the end for a 30+ year old?

august fagerstrom: surprised by Kansas City’s interest in him

august fagerstrom: Gallardo makes more sense IMO

august fagerstrom: the K does suppress home runs, yeah, but Kennedy is coming from PETCO, after all

august fagerstrom: last year’s HR/FB% was fluky, for sure, but when you give up bombs, you give up bombs

august fagerstrom: I’d expect a rebound in the sense of “he won’t be as bad as he was last year,” but a reasonable expectation would be a totally average (4 ERA) innings eater who has a pretty nasty floor

Zonk: Shouldn’t the Rockies have a trade lined-up BEFORE signing Parra? Seems like they lost some leverage by clearly having too many OF. Cubs clearly had Castro trade done BEFORE signing Zobrist, which was the right way to do it, IMO….

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I thought about this yesterday

august fagerstrom: Especially given how flawed all those outfielders are. I don’t think teams will necessarily be pressing to acquire any of them, and if the Rockies don’t lower asking prices, there’s no reason they couldn’t just say “Fine, keep all 4”

Ben Lindbergh: You don’t like FiveThirtyEight?

august fagerstrom: yeah, Rob Arthur and now of course Ben are awesome

TY: Closer predictions for COL or MIL? Any guys you like or feel will win the jobs?

august fagerstrom: Will Smith is interesting in MIL. He’s kind of had a LOOGY label throughout his career but hasn’t ran a discernible platoon split and was actually better against righties last year

august fagerstrom: Jeremy Jeffress might be the more logical candidate, with Smith remaining a matchup guy

august fagerstrom: they don’t have much else in the way of quality lefties, so you might wanna keep Smith’s role flexible

august fagerstrom: as for Colorado, seems like Motte?

august fagerstrom: “closer experience”

august fagerstrom: he’s not been very good though. strikeout rate is alarming. Justin Miller might be the best option, he had great peripherals last season. But I’d bet on Motte getting it to start the year

GSon: Two deals.. Atlanta & Cleveland: Markakis for Rob Kaminsky and Colorado & Cleveland: Carlos Gonzalez for Carlos Santana.. Which one (or both of these deals) would make sense?

august fagerstrom: second one makes no sense for Cleveland

august fagerstrom: something like the first one could make sense

august fagerstrom: Markakis is also only a marginal upgrade over what Cleveland already has. they’re probably not looking to move a prospect for that little of an improvement

Joe: Why is no one talking about Justin Morneau?

august fagerstrom: 35-year-old league-average hitters with injury problems who can only play first base aren’t super enticing

philly rocks: Are my PHILS going to find enough ABs for Ruf to make an impact? He’s a 30 HR guy waiting to happen with enough plate appearances.

august fagerstrom: yeah, he should play against every left-handed pitcher

august fagerstrom: and never face a righty, ever

august fagerstrom: which is why he’ll never get enough plate appearances to actually reach 30 HR

Greg: Which rotation you got for 2016: Indians, Mets, or field?

august fagerstrom: what are we using for this? year-end WAR? FIP?

august fagerstrom: I almost always take the field

august fagerstrom: Indians and Mets are the clear 1/2 rotations for me, but if you’re also giving me the Cubs, Dodgers, Nats, etc. I’ll take the field

Nick: How many of the Indians games will you be attending once you move downtown? I’m jealous. I’m thinking of moving downtown myself (Mayfield currently), it should be an exciting year.

august fagerstrom: well I’ll be at all of them for work reasons

august fagerstrom: most all of them, at least

august fagerstrom: moving a block away from the stadium makes work commutes pretty painless!

Norrin Radd: What is your preferred method of watching games during the season? Do you like focusing on one game or having multiple on?

august fagerstrom: I struggle to watch more than one game

august fagerstrom: I’ll usually find a pitching matchup I like and use that as my “main” game

august fagerstrom: then during commercials I’ll find an at-bat I want to see and watch that

august fagerstrom: then eventually return to my main game

nate: give me one good reason the Reds signing Alfredo Rodriguez makes sense

august fagerstrom: because he’s young and they think he’ll be good? why not? Cozart is a soon-to-be FA, there’s not an obvious replacement, and the Reds are rebuilding

grumbleshoes: don’t you at least get internet like over your phone? Us cool new kids on the block can use our phones to “tether” to computers, sharing the internet connection.

august fagerstrom: yeah! Dave explained this to me, but my service provider charges for tethering, I do believe…

august fagerstrom: I tried to chat over the phone but it wouldve been a pain in the ass

Z: do you think the Reds have taken the wrong philosophy in their return on trades? they are targeting ML ready or close players instead of quantity or high-upside players further away from the majors. i would think the latter should be their approach given the division for the next several years and the current lack of impact talent on the team

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I’m not in love with what they’ve done

august fagerstrom: though it’s entirely possible that it’s less of a “strategy” and more of a “we waited to long to move these guys and no nobody will give us actual high-upside players”

JD89: Polanco is going to push 5 WAR this year? Not many guys hit it as hard with same contact rate as him. Batted 320 on 46 balls in play between 100-104 mph.

august fagerstrom: yeah, I think there’s definitely room for some power gains in there too

august fagerstrom: he’s got the frame, he isn’t an extreme ground ball hitter

august fagerstrom: 5 WAR is asking a lot, but I’m a Polanco fan

Johnny5Alive: How disappointing will th mets be next year. I am trying to prepare myself for it mentally. After being so close, and what is expected, its going to take me months to come to grips with it

august fagerstrom: well the first step is you can’t allow “anything less than WS” to be a disappointment

august fagerstrom: because then it’s a near-certainty you’ll be disappointed

august fagerstrom: the thing the Mets have going for them is that they’re one of, like, eight teams in the National League that has a realistic shot at occupying one of the five playoff spots

august fagerstrom: so those are decent odds

august fagerstrom: I think they’re closer to the bottom of those eight teams than the top, but worst case scenario is you get to watch awesome pitchers pretty much every day on a .500 team!

august fagerstrom: that’s not too bad

GN: Which team/teams do you view as non-playoff teams, but an Upton/Cespedes/Davis signing would make them a playoff team in your mind?

august fagerstrom: they’re not gonna push an NL team over the top

august fagerstrom: they’d just make a contender a stronger contender

august fagerstrom: in the AL, all 15 teams are playoff contenders in my mind, so the impact would be greater

Zonk: Historically in baseball, do left handed-hitters struggle more against same-handedness than right-handed hitters do? Why is that, because RHH see more RHP?

august fagerstrom: last year lefties had an 84 wRC+ vs. lefties

august fagerstrom: righties had a 90 wRC+ against righties

august fagerstrom: so yeah, there’s a bit of a gap

august fagerstrom: as to why, I’m not entirely sure! your explanation makes a lot of sense

Gareth : How much of a difference would Justin Upton make to a currently uninspiring indians outfield of chisenhall, Almonte and davis?

august fagerstrom: huge

august fagerstrom: never gonna happen though

kevinthecomic: So, is your middle name Oliver too, then?

august fagerstrom: Dylan

august fagerstrom: changing that soon though!

Joe: If you were the White Sox GM, which of the remaining free agents would you target?

august fagerstrom: if they can actually afford him, Cespedes makes the most sense because of his defense

august fagerstrom: if not, Fowler, if not him, then probably stand pat

GN: Don’t the Indians and Rockies match up well for a SP for OF trade? What is the best trade scenario in your mind?

august fagerstrom: I think so. I proposed yesterday that some sort of trade involving Roberto Perez/Rob Kaminsky/Cody Anderson for Dickerson would make sense. Would imagine the Rockies would demand Mike Clevinger which would give Cleveland some pause

Gareth : Can you believe that the indians rotation could have been Kluber, Carrasco, Archer, Salazar and Bauer if Archer hadn’t been traded to the Cubs for Frickin’ Mark Derosa!

august fagerstrom: who could’ve seen this coming, though?

august fagerstrom: also entirely likely that Chris Archer never becomes CHRIS ARCHER without Rays player development system

Ruby: Astros can’t keep running Gattis and his sub-.300 OBP out there every day, can they?

august fagerstrom: Give him another year — he had a 126 wRC+ just a year ago

Ruin Tomorrow Jr.: Why do I have this name? Doesn’t the future look bright and aren’t I at least partially responsible?

august fagerstrom: I’d never heard this before but I love it

august fagerstrom: The name comes from all the yesterdays you ruined

august fagerstrom: I do absolutely love what the Phillies did last year, though. They look to be set up very well for the future

CubsHater: The Cubs are going to win the damn World Series, aren’t they?

august fagerstrom: probably not!

august fagerstrom: but they’re more likely than the rest of the teams, I’d say

TommyLasordid: Regarding the recent minor Dodger moves: seems their depth has gotten to the point where valuable players need to be jettisoned to make room on 40-man roster. Is that your take on the moves with Wieland, etc.,that non-40 man status is part of the value proposition attached to lesser players?

august fagerstrom: yep. if there’s one identifiable trait that can be attributed to Friedman’s time in LA, it seems like it’s building depth

august fagerstrom: they have an insane amount of depth. Wieland is a good piece

j6takish: Are you Finnish? rate your sisu on an 80-20 scale

august fagerstrom: Finnish ancestors, yeah, though David Laurila claimed at the Winter Meetings that I wasn’t a true finn, and the fact that I had to look up what sisu is probably means I’m like a 30

GN: With KC looking at the Kennedy/Gallardo tier, wouldn’t that make them extremely likely to have to trade for another stud at the deadline (like Cueto) to make a WS run?

august fagerstrom: yeah, I have a hard time envisioning a Ventura-Volquez-Kennedy led rotation going to a WS

august fagerstrom: then again we’ve had a hard time envisioning anything the Royals have done the last couple years, so who knows!

Neal Huntington: Steamer has Fransisco Cervelli regressing by almost 1.5WAR. I get he has injury trouble, but if he stays healthy isn’t that a bit pessimistic?

august fagerstrom: yeah. projection systems are always slow to buy into player breakouts

august fagerstrom: on the contrary, fans are probably too aggressive in buying into breakouts

august fagerstrom: but I’ll take the over on Cervelli’s projection, for usre

august fagerstrom: sure*

Austin: Dyson/Orlando platoon an easy 3-win scenario? I really don’t think Royals have to go and a stopgap FA before Starling hits the majors.

august fagerstrom: I agree, and I’m really excited to see what Dyson can do getting regular playing time. 3 WAR doesn’t seem at all out of reach

august fagerstrom: Dyson has been worth 9.6 WAR in 1200 plate appearances!

august fagerstrom: that’s like a five-win player!

august fagerstrom: defensive numbers still need regressed, but as long as he remains deployed efficiently, which he will in a platoon situation, he’s a really interesting player

Zonk: Rockies must have figured they would sign Parra for $30 mil, who would replace Car-Go without much drop-off, then trade Car-Go for prospects, thereby a) saving $10 mil, b) getting prospects, and c) not getting worse, maybe better. What could go wrong?

august fagerstrom: what could go wrong is them having to settle for an underwhelming return for CarGo

Scott: Jeurys Familia will be one of the top __ closers in baseball this year

august fagerstrom: well “closers” is an interesting distinction because it removes Dellin Betances and Andrew Miller from the equation!

august fagerstrom: 5?

august fagerstrom: 3, if I’m aggressive

Gareth : Much debate about the indians top pitching prospect. Aiken, Sheffield, Kaminsly, Clevinger. How would you rank them?

august fagerstrom: Clevinger, Sheffield, Aiken, Kaminsky

august fagerstrom: Kaminsky just because he seems to be a low-ceiling guy

Q-Ball: Olney says Cubs have 4th best rotation in Baseball. (After Mets, Indians, Cards). You agree with that?

august fagerstrom: might even say third

Gareth : I came to Cleveland from New Zealand in 2007 and became a huge baseball and Indians fan. After seeing peak Grady Sizemore, OBP machine Shin Soo Choo and hitting machine Michael Brantley, it depresses me to know that the opening day outfield in 2016 will be Davis, Chisenhall and Almonte.

august fagerstrom: thinking about Grady Sizemore’s early days in any way is a surefire way to get sad

Scott: do you play fantasy baseball or are you kinda too cool for school on that front like Cameron/Sullivan?

august fagerstrom: I play in one league. Just prefer not to talk/answer questions about it

Phil: Does it still blow your mind that Randy Johnson was having his best seasons after a DECADE of big-league pitching and in his late 30’s? He had a 9+ win season at age 40!

august fagerstrom: at the height of the steroid era? not too mind-blowing

Eugenio Suarez: am I an above average mlb regular?

august fagerstrom: I think you could be

august fagerstrom: defensive metrics were really surprising last year. not totally sure what to make of those quite yt

august fagerstrom: if you can stick at shortstop, you’ve certainly got the bat to be an above-average starter.

Gareth : Who do you prefer, upton or cesspitdust?

august fagerstrom: Cespedes

Dakota mckee: What happens first another team in Canada (Montreal) or a new franchise in Cuba?

august fagerstrom: Canada

TJ: Anthony Rizzo has dropped some weight and added some muscle, is in “best shape of life” , can he give Harper a run for MVP ?

august fagerstrom: sure. I’d say he gave him a run last year

august fagerstrom: as much as anyone gave Harper a run, at least

Gareth : Is perez/Kaminsly fair for Dickerson? Don’t want cargo. Too much baggage.

august fagerstrom: yeah I think that’s close

Brian: Are you more confident on January 13 2016 that the Cubs will make the playoffs than you were of the Nats making the playoffs on January 13 2015?

august fagerstrom: Actually might have been higher on the Nats last year

matt : Betts for syndergaard who says no

august fagerstrom: both

60 year old dude hucking up 3’s : Thanks for the shoutout!

august fagerstrom: keep doing you

august fagerstrom: alright guys, extra-long chat edition over!