August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 6/21/16

august fagerstrom: Gonna start a bit late today. Let’s call it 12:10 or so

august fagerstrom: In the meantime-

Bork: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: Hi, Bork!

Slothrop: Hey August congrats on the win for Cleveland. Happy for you and your fellow Clevelanders, and of course the players themselves

august fagerstrom: It’s been a really cool couple of days. Beyond the players/team, I’m mostly just happy for my father. That’s what’s had me most emotional since the win (and I’ve gotten emotional more than a handful of times). He’s lived his entire life as a die-hard Cleveland fan thanks to *his* father, and, like me, has also dedicated his life to working in sports. If it weren’t for him, I wouldn’t have this job that I love so much. The bond sports can create between a parent and a child is the most special thing about sports in my mind, and knowing that he finally got to see a championship come to his city is the greatest thing about all of this to me

august fagerstrom: I cried when I talked to him on the phone after the Cavs won and I’m getting emotional just now writing this. So cool. Can’t wait til til the parade tomorrow

august fagerstrom: Also, the story of LeBron James is one of the coolest in the history of sports, and we grew up just a few miles away from each other. Pretty cool.

King: Lebroooon Jaaaaaames

Justin: Were you at the meetup on Saturday? My big takeaway from that night was that I have no idea what any of my favorite writers look like.

august fagerstrom: I was!

august fagerstrom: Funny you say that, because one of my biggest takeaways was being surprised by how many people knew what *I* looked like

august fagerstrom: Really great time Saturday at the bar and Sunday at the park. Sorry we didn’t get a chance to meet up. Really appreciate everyone who came out and made both events a great time, though

J6takish: Shoutout to Dave C’s full blue tracksuit

august fagerstrom: At the wiffle ball game? That was Sporer

Eric: If Kershaw maintained his current rates (K, BB, ERA, etc.) for the rest of the season, this season would be a top ___ pitching season all-time?

august fagerstrom: Five, easily. If not one.

august fagerstrom: Pedro 99-00, Maddux 94-95, Gibson 68 only ones in question for me

Erik: Maikel Franco has gone from underwhelming to positively bad this year, and has now put up -0.2 WAR. Is that largely explained by bad BABIP luck (.250), or does he have the profile which makes that sort of low BABIP likely, and he might just not be very good?

august fagerstrom: He does have a low BABIP profile, thanks to grounders without speed. I wrote in the offseason how, since he puts so many balls in play and particularly grounders, he needed to maximize his results on contact by hitting more balls in the air/more power.

august fagerstrom: That’s not happening

Bork: What’s wrong with Marcus Stroman? Are hitters just adjusting to him now that they’ve got more info?

august fagerstrom: I don’t love how reliant he seems to be on pitching to contact

august fagerstrom: He’s got swing-and-miss stuff! Use it!

PL: What kind of return would you expect Danny Valencia might get?

Jorge: Predict a Danny Valencia trade

august fagerstrom: Believe Mr. Dave Cameron is writing this up as we speak

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: I wish fangraphs had a college. A physical Campus, too, not just online. Can we make this happen?

august fagerstrom: Sabermetrics 101 is a thing! https://www.google.com/search?q=sabermetrics+101&ie=utf-8&oe=utf-8

august fagerstrom: Think that’s as close as we’re gonna get

Colin: Is there any hope for Francisco Liriano this year?

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t be buying stock until the approach changes, either from his side or the hitters

august fagerstrom: He seems to have lost something, and hitters seemed to have figured out how to beat him

august fagerstrom: Not a great combo

Bob: What’s your take on Wei-Yin Chen? Is this just a slump or something else?

august fagerstrom: He’s gone away from what’s worked from him in the past. Not sure if it was his idea or the Marlins, but he’s throwing all his fastballs low in the zone now, getting hit hard and getting no pop-ups. Been thinking about writing this soon

Gerb: ESPN’s WAR calc has Danny Salazar listed at 3.7, well in the lead in AL, but Fangraphs only has him at 2.0. Any idea why the larger than normal discrepancy? Which number do you think more accurately depicts how good he’s been?

august fagerstrom: ESPN is using runs allowed, FanGraphs uses FIP. And there should never be one or the other that’s used. Use both.

august fagerstrom: The FIP measure that’s a little more down on him accurately reflects his walk rate, which is truly terrifying. The RA9 measure that likes him more accurately reflects how he’s been getting more ground balls, double plays, and keeping the ball in the yard to limit the potential damage his walks could inflict

neil: Have we confirmed whether or not Willson Contreras stole the extra L in his name from Welington Castillo?

august fagerstrom: An investigation is neede.

august fagerstrom: needed!

Matt: Julio Teheran, amirite?

august fagerstrom: Seems like a lot of obvious pre-season trade candidates have done quite a bit to increase their trade value

Dude Bruh: Kershaw for MVP again?

august fagerstrom: He’s the NL MVP right now without question

Nelson: Would Indians 1st round home playoff games sell out, like withing a couple of days of going on sale?

august fagerstrom: Wild Card game in 2013 sold out pretty quick

Gary: Do we see Brantley by July? At all this year? Can the Indians win the division without him??

august fagerstrom: No, yes, I have my doubts

august fagerstrom: Doubts may not be the best word. I think they’re still probably the most talented team in the division without him. “Questions” is maybe a better word

2-D: I know we’re here because we love baseball, but what happened Sunday was one of the most powerful and beautiful moments in sports I have ever experienced. Go Cleveland.

august fagerstrom: Agreed. That script gets rejected in Hollywood for being too unrealistic.

Matt: Are the Braves right to ask for something stupid for Teheran? Like, Benintendi AND Moncada stupid? And, as a follow up, is DD desperate enough to do it?

august fagerstrom: No/no

Seth: are reds finding the new best way to tank? young starters developing, young hitters getting feet wet, still can guarantee losses by employing ross ohlendorf, jj hoover and co in the pen

august fagerstrom: New market inefficiency!

Phil: Only four teams, Cubs, Giants, Mets and White Sox, have TWO SP’s as valuable so far this year as Kerhsaw by himself. He is literally two aces combined. No question, just an observation of ridiculous fact.

august fagerstrom: Yep. When the Dodgers’ rotation was ranked where it was at the start of the season in our positional power rankings, a lot of people had a hard time grasping this concept

august fagerstrom: Which is understandable, because it’s really hard to grasp

august fagerstrom: It literally is two bonafide aces in one, though, plus four other pitchers

Dongers: Seems like Bryce has been falling away from the plate a lot lately when he swings–especially at outside pitches. Is there anything to that? I don’t remember his swing looking that way last season

august fagerstrom: He’s seen the highest rate of outside pitches of anyone in baseball this year

august fagerstrom: Could be he’s trying something to adjust and struggling

Phil: Happy Skip Bayless is Leaving Day! (let’s be honest, Fox Sports is the same as going away)

august fagerstrom: I haven’t actually seen or heard anything Skip Bayless has said in years, so I couldn’t care less about this

august fagerstrom: A lower profile for one of the worst sports people in the business can only be a good thing though, I guess, so yay

Bork: So, hypothetically, what would happen to the city of Cleveland if Lebron opted out and signed with another team? Would we get the great jersey burning of 2010 v2.0 or would people not care as much since he delivered what he promised?

august fagerstrom: Impossible to say, but the city got what it’s wanted for more than a half a century. He kept good on his promise. Hard to get mad about what he does next. I think people would be disappointed, but it wouldn’t be met with near the vitriol of the last decision

august fagerstrom: Also, my understanding is that people were more mad about the way he did it last time than the fact that he did it at all

august fagerstrom: He was right to go to Miami for his career. He just did it in the worst way possible

august fagerstrom: That being said, LeBron’s not going anywhere

Darth V: Rosenthal really struggling. Do you think they turn to Oh?

august fagerstrom: It should certainly be considered. Oh is still completely unhittable

Erik: If LeBron had spent every minute he spent on basketball on baseball instead, would he be a dominant baseball player? Would he be a slugging RF? Maybe a 30/30 guy? Or is he just too big for baseball, despite his ridiculous athleticism and drive?

august fagerstrom: Football, yes. Baseball, no.

CamdenWarehouse: J Upton seems to be getting going. Do you think he can be a top 20 OF June-Sept?

august fagerstrom: Not going to put a number or timeframe on it, but he can be Justin Upton again. We’ve seen him recover from slumps nearly as prolonged and severe as the one he just had before

Bork:

august fagerstrom: Eno????

Bork: That’s eno, right?

august fagerstrom: Ha!

Erik: J.P. Crawford has been awful in AAA, Nick Williams strikes out too much, Mark Appel and Jake Thomspon have been rather underwhelming…Is the future of the Phillies not as bright as it looked to be before the season?

august fagerstrom: The Velasquez thing, even though it seems to be minor, might be the most worrisome part of the organization’s season thus far. Just the reminder that he could break at a moment’s notice

august fagerstrom: Williams has a 132 wRC+. Crawford is still a ridiculous talent, and has played 27 games at AAA. Thompson’s got a 3.18 ERA. If you were expecting too much from Appel, that’s on you

august fagerstrom: Odubel Herrera looks legit and Aaron Nola is an ace

august fagerstrom: Phillies fans should be happy

Jon: Beau Burrows or Matt Manning

august fagerstrom: Are these… baseball players?

Nelson: Im 38 and have no idea at all what snapchat or periscope are. Can I safely stay this way or do I need to do something?

august fagerstrom: You may continue living your life!

pants: Shawn Kelley: he’s got the dominant reliever stats without the usual dominant reliever fiery fastball. I was watching some clips the other day and it occurred to me his delivery looks exactly like Yusmeiro Petit’s delivery. Maybe he’s got that invisiball thing going on too. With slightly better stuff.

august fagerstrom: Putting up the Eno Sarris signal now

Bryan: Corey Seager finishes with how many homers?

august fagerstrom: 25-30

Make WAR not Love: The only reason I knew what you looked like was other writers referencing your man bun during their chats – that made it easy to pick you out on Saturday. Eno and Sporer also very easy to pick out. Fun times

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think we all have fairly recognizable traits. Jeff tries his hardest to hide his face from the internet, but it’s easy to spot the tallest most handsome nerd at the bar.

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Did you play baseball? What’s your position? You seem like a CF to me.

august fagerstrom: I play LCF in softball. Played middle infield in baseball

Plop: Can the Rangers keep up their success? Obviously not at this pace, but over/under 94.5 wins?

august fagerstrom: I’m not a big believer, much to the chagrin of Twitter

Josh: Hey guys. New to the site. Where can I find info on the MLB players in today’s slate such as BABIP, HH contact rate, SO % etc? Thanks for your help

august fagerstrom: Up at the top of the site on the black toolbar, navigate your cursor to “Leaders” and select “2016” under Batting Leaders or Pitching Leaders

august fagerstrom: Much awaits you there. Enjoy

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Do you ever start research on a piece only to find yourself thinking it’s complete crap? I’ve been working on an “execution” article about pitchers actually throwing to weak ISO zones for hitters, but I think it’s too simple and obvious an idea now. Do you continue or will you follow a different path if the research presents it?

august fagerstrom: Constantly

august fagerstrom: Sometimes you’re just missing an obvious “Eureka!” moment though. If the data doesn’t show what you hope it would/anything interesting, shelve it and maybe the missing piece will come to you later

august fagerstrom: That being said, I’ve begrudgingly published things that I’ve felt to be “too simple or obvious” before that received great feedback. Sometimes it only seems obvious to the person working on it because they came up with the idea and spent so much time with it

august fagerstrom: No harm in publishing, especially when it can be updated later!

Doughboy: Barring an injury, when does Reed get called up? They cant possibly stick with Valbuena/Gonzalez longer than a week or so right?

august fagerstrom: Gotta be soon.

Gary Bertier: Having a serious debate. Would you want Fern or Price ROS and why?

august fagerstrom: Fernandez, because he’s way closer to being the best pitcher in baseball than Price

Joshua: Fool me once, shame on me. Fool me twice, yada yada. 20 years ago people were amazed at the “new aging pattern” as 38-40 year olds were putting up ungodly stats. We all know now the reason for it. So, why should I believe in David Ortiz now?

august fagerstrom: Just enjoy it

Nolan: Rangers and yanks seem to have a lot of what each other need. Could you see a mccan, Beltran, Miller for profar and gallo trade making sense?

august fagerstrom: No. No.

Joe: Trevor Plouffe to the New York Mets, match made in heaven?

august fagerstrom: If a .264 OBP is your idea of heaven

humphrey: Matt Shoemaker is throwing his split nearly half the time now and he’s getting more whiffs per swing than when he threw it 20% of the time. Lance McCullers is throwing his curve almost half the time now and he’s getting more whiffs per swing with it than when he threw it 35% of the time last year. Isn’t the correlation supposed to go the other way?

august fagerstrom: This actually might be the concept I’m most interested in about baseball. I have a strong hunch that elite pitches are vastly underused due to conventional thinking that you lead with the fastball

august fagerstrom: No evidence to prove that, it’s just something I believe

august fagerstrom: Rich Hill is another example of a guy who does this. And relievers do it all the time

august fagerstrom: Why not more starters? If it’s your best pitch, it’s your best pitch

august fagerstrom: Game theory plays into this for sure, and so does sequencing

august fagerstrom: But I would love to see a Corey Kluber who throws 45% breaking balls or a changeup-first Cole Hamels

Swinging Friar: If you were GM of the Padres, what would you do to put a contending team on the field and how long would it take to get there?

august fagerstrom: No idea / a long time

august fagerstrom: Latter answer informs the former

JTT: Did you see Miggys home run? Hitting a ball out of the ballpark in LCF is a big deal at Comerica

august fagerstrom: Yeah, that was insane

august fagerstrom: Miguel Cabrera: Still really good! Still really strong

J: Kluber can’t strand runners to save his life and has a below average K% with men on base. Is he fine or is pitching from the stretch a real problem for him?

august fagerstrom: FWIW, league LOB% is 73%, Kluber’s career LOB% is 72%

august fagerstrom: Stranding runners is something that can fluctuate wildly within a season

Ben: Does John Farrell keep his job through the year? They are winning but only cause of absurd talent, he is managing poorly

august fagerstrom: They’d have to really collapse

august fagerstrom: They look like maybe the best team in the AL right now. That’s not gonna get Farrell fired.

LioneeR: Which team will make the postseason first? Braves, Phillies, Reds, Brewers, Angels, or Twins

august fagerstrom: Phillies or Angels

august fagerstrom: Angels only because of Trout

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Who would you have your money on as the next player to go 30/30?

august fagerstrom: Mookie Betts?

august fagerstrom: Maybe Trout, because why not?

august fagerstrom: Starting to wonder if Altuve is maybe the answer to that, regardless of how insane that sounds

Alex: Let’s say you’re a GM and Bryce Harper became a free agent today. Scott Boras calls and says he’s yours for $500 million (with opt-outs, of course). Your team’s owner says to do it if you’re sure. Do you make that deal?

august fagerstrom: You didn’t give years, which is a pretty important part of that decision

Snowflake: If I could have mexican food and beer for every meal that would be great

august fagerstrom: No kidding.

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Is the best approach for talking to someone like Harold Reynolds about advanced metrics avoidance?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, he’s not going to change his stance at this point. No use wasting your breath. Talk about family or traveling instead.

Daniel: An important point to remember with research: “Proving” something that seems obvious to people is actually really important.

august fagerstrom: Yes.

august fagerstrom: This, too.

David: Are the Indians going to get an actual OF upgrade this midseason, callup Zimmer or Frazier or do their typical thing and get some mediocre veteran for cheap.

august fagerstrom: The latter

Joe: Trevor Bauer has looked solid since his return to the rotation, are we finally witnessing his breakout? Do you think this has anything to do with his increased FB velocity, or more because of improved command?

august fagerstrom: Total change in approach.

august fagerstrom: His two-seamer is filthy, and he’s primarily a sinkerballer now. Way fewer of those four-seamers up that he insisted on throwing for years

august fagerstrom: He’s been way more efficient with his repertoire

Daniel: Is there any chance you guys will ever make an app?

august fagerstrom: There used to be one, and the decision was made that it wasn’t worth it. Currently no plans for one in the future, as far as I know

Snarfle: It’s really not that hard to make a great homemade tomato sauce. Get some romas or just whatever is fresh. Throw those and some cloves of garlic in a blender. Toss in olive oil, salt, pepper and whatever herbs you have around. Put a dash of olive oil in a large pan, turn the heat to medium and pour in the sauce. The trick is to only start the pasta water once the sauce is on the pan, because then you end up giving it ample time to cook down. The only way to screw this up is to not let it cook down enough. Cheap, delicious and more or less healthy. That’s how it’s done August Fagerstrom!

Snarfle: The finance team is always in the office. No one else is always in the office.

august fagerstrom: Thanks, Snarfle!

august fagerstrom: Excellent unsolicited advice here, for everyone to use.

TurboSloth: It looks like despite the limited sample size, Jefry Marte is among the league leaders with a 50% Hard hit rate and among the best in exit velocity. Reason to believe in him as a future regular or 25-30 HR bat?

august fagerstrom: No. There is not reason to believe htat.

august fagerstrom: that.

Tom Ricketts: How excited are you to see Jake Arrieta in the ESPN THE BODY

august fagerstrom: I am not excited for that.

Zonk: If the Pirates can’t get it in gear, should they consider a significant re-tool? Meaning, trade every pending FA like Melancon, Feliz, Joyce, Freese

august fagerstrom: Melancon seems like an obvious one. Not sure what the others get you.

TurboSloth: Is there credence to the idea that throwing a fastball less means you can huck it harder? Eno pondered this regarding shoemaker

august fagerstrom: It’s an interesting thought, for sure

Hugh: If you were the braves would you package your young pitchers for a left fielder? If swanson and albies are the MI of the future may b they could get by w smith inciarte and a power hitting left fielder

august fagerstrom: Targeting a specific position like that is never the way to go about things

august fagerstrom: You just want to get better.

august fagerstrom: If I’m the Braves I definitely trade Vizcaino for *something* and strongly consider moving Teheran

Old School Hockey:

august fagerstrom: Old School F’ing Hockey

Zonk: Is James Shields fixable?

august fagerstrom: Don Cooper has his work cut out for him.

PL: On a scale of 1-10 how hard is it for you to meet other people with a similar level of passion for baseball?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think it’s any more or less hard to meet people without an interest in baseball

august fagerstrom: I prefer not to talk much about baseball in social settings anyway. Spend enough time with it as is

Jim Lonborg: What’s your view of the Kimbrel-sucks-in-non-save-sit. theory? Hogwash?

august fagerstrom: Career 1.50 ERA in save situations, 2.18 in non-save situtations

august fagerstrom: 2.18 ERA definitely doesn’t suck.

august fagerstrom: I feel like every fanbase believes their closer is useless in non-save situations

Eric: Do you believe in the recent performance of Morales? Do you think he can revert to last year’s form because the Royals could probably use that.

august fagerstrom: This is now two out of three seasons that Morales has been totally useless, and it’s the oldest version of him yet

august fagerstrom: I wouldn’t feel great

Cubs Fan: Can we all agree that if Lebron had nailed that monster dunk on Dray to seal the ‘chip and seal his legacy, it would’ve been the greatest and most cinematic sports moment in history? Nike commercials would just be replaying that over and over.

august fagerstrom: The roof would have blown off the Q and there wasn’t even a game being played there.

Gavin: Obviously striking out a batter swinging and looking are just as good in the moment, but are rates in one more sustainable than the other?

august fagerstrom: Swinging is more sustainable, because looking is influenced by umpire/catcher

Eric: Which Michael Fulmer do you believe is most real: the guy who got lit up in his first four starts or the recent run?

august fagerstrom: In between

august fagerstrom: Always in between

Andrew: Coolest MLB ballpark feature? Worst (other than Marlins sculpture)?

august fagerstrom: Don’t know if you’re looking only for in-stadium features, but the San Francisco Bay being right up against right field at AT&T is awesome

august fagerstrom: I’m also a big fan of Tal’s Hill, which I suspect would be most people’s “worst”

august fagerstrom: I like most anything that makes a stadium unique. That includes the Marlins structure

Jake: What kind of value does Vizcaino have on the trade market?

august fagerstrom: Elite closer value

august fagerstrom: Elite, cost-controlled closer value. Somewhat hampered by PED / Tommy John history

Terry Ryan: How do I fix my pitching staff?

august fagerstrom: I don’t think you’ll be the one fixing it.

Action Jack Barker: Is J.T. Realmuto an elite catcher now?

august fagerstrom: Most negative framing runs, MLB 2016:

1. D. Navarro, -10.0
2. T. Barnhart, -7.7
3. J. Realmuto, -7.6

OddBall Herrera: Rooting hard for a Soler/Miller trade between ChC and NYY, if only so we can finally see Soler with regular playing time. This actually seems like it has an outside shot of happening, thoughts?

august fagerstrom: Every mid-June trade proposal has an outside shot of happening

Sean: August, I need baseball players I totally forgot that played in the MLB, like Alex Cintron, Marquis Grissom, Rey Ordonez, and Chuck Knoblauch

august fagerstrom: Niceeeee

Ben: I Is David Ortiz the fastest man alive?

august fagerstrom: Someone should write an article about how the Red Sox have been the most efficient base-stealing team ever

Jake: RE: Vizcaino, Even with his past TJ surgery and PED suspension?

august fagerstrom: Those wouldn’t help, certainly, but he’s currently not hurt or suspended

Guest: How many ballpark’s have you been to?

august fagerstrom: Somewhere in the mid-20’s

AGon: All my peripherals appear normal except my GB%. Is this an anomaly that will improve?

august fagerstrom: That’s a pretty big peripheral, especially given the magnitude of the change, and the fact that you pull them all and you’re slow

august fagerstrom: Something’s wrong with his swing that needs ironed out

frank: Do the Reds trade Bruce

august fagerstrom: yes

Rob: What does your crystal ball say about Jurickson Profar’s future: 1) super-utility in TX; 2) somebody else’s starting SS; 3) Texas’ starting SS (Andrus trade)?

august fagerstrom: Good player for someone

hscer: Steve Stone won a Cy Young overthrowing his curveball and was out of baseball a year later.

august fagerstrom: Correlation/causation?

Snarfle: Between you and me, August, I think Megan regrets hiring that new woman in finance. She has the energy of a children’s cartoon.

Matt Damon: MATT. DAMON.

august fagerstrom: aaaaaand that’s how we end

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting everyone!

august fagerstrom: Talk to you all next week

august fagerstrom: And extra thanks again to those who showed up to the two FanGraphs meetsup in New York this weekend! Was a splendid time.

august fagerstrom: Looking forward to the next one already