August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 7/12/16

august fagerstrom: here comes a baseball chat

august fagerstrom: chat soundtrack is Bryson Tiller – Trapsoul, which I’ve really been feeling the past couple days

august fagerstrom: if you’re not into the new wave of R&B stuff, I’ve also been revisiting Cold War Kids’ “Robbers & Cowards” which is excellent

august fagerstrom: Gonna let questions roll in for another few minutes and we’ll start at the top of the hour

Minty: Think Moncada debuts in ’17? What do you think his HR/SB combo will be? High SBs in the minors can be skewed.

august fagerstrom: Sure seems he’s on that track. Any HR/SB prediction from me at this time would be irresponsible, but the kid is gonna be good

BK: Who do you think wins the 3 team ALE race?

august fagerstrom: Starting to lean off the Red Sox onto the Blue Jays

PL: Indians’ biggest need at the deadline? Who fits best?

august fagerstrom: Hard to gauge how big they’re gonna go, but a weapon in the back of the pen probably makes the most sense. Melancon seemed real likely for a while there but now the Pirates may hold onto him. Arodys Vizcaino makes some sense

Timmy T: How excited should we be for the arrival of Andrew Benintendi? What type of player do you expect him to be?

august fagerstrom: Excited; a good one

Eric: Hi

august fagerstrom: this just reminded me I’ve started a chat without Bork!

august fagerstrom: oh no!

august fagerstrom: brb scrolling through the queue in search of Bork

august fagerstrom: oh no

august fagerstrom: no Bork

august fagerstrom: god, I hope he’s ok

PATRICK: Whats your opinion on the future career of hunter dozier

august fagerstrom: well I’ve heard of him now, so

rustydude: Is Tyler Naquin better than we thought?

august fagerstrom: Starting to think that could be the case. Think I’ll be writing about this soon, in fact. I was not at all a believer, but, boy.

august fagerstrom: He’s pulling a Lindor, insofar as somehow showing power in the MLB that he never showed in the minors

Iheartprospects: What are you thoughts on Eloy Jimenez MLB ceiling? Player comp for him? Thnx

august fagerstrom: Eric Longenhagen chats on Mondays! He’s your guy for this. I’d never heard of Eloy Jimenez until a bunch of people on Twitter talked about him a couple days ago

august fagerstrom: This goes for pretty much all prospect questions, by the way.

august fagerstrom: The answer, almost always from me, will be “I don’t know” or “here’s what I read on a scouting report from someone who actually does know”

The other Kyle: Thoughts on the D’backs closer situation ROS and beyond? Seems like Clippard will be the guy, but I’m wondering if they go with Hudson, instead, and leave Clippard in his more comfortable setup role.

august fagerstrom: I’d wager at least one of those guys still gets traded and it works itself out naturally

Britt: Are the Indians starting to regret signing Yan Gomes to a long term deal given his play the last two seasons? I know the deal is team friendly but Roberto Perez (the better catcher) might become expensive through arbitration and I have no faith that Gomes is ever going to turn it around thus becoming an albatross. Also, any chance the Indians are considering trading for Lucroy?

august fagerstrom: I doubt it

august fagerstrom: He’s still making just $2.5M this year

august fagerstrom: Even the Indians can stomach sending that down to AAA

august fagerstrom: $4.5M next year, never goes higher than $7M through 2019. Would be easily movable if they so desired

august fagerstrom: Plus, deals should never be evaluated like that in hindsight. It was a fantastic move at the time

august fagerstrom: Can’t call a contract an “albatross” when it never exceeds single-digits, IMO

august fagerstrom: The Lucroy thing makes a ton of sense but the Indians (and Kluber, especially) love Gomes, and should trust Perez as long as he’s healthy, and they’d have a lot of competition for Lucroy. I doubt it happens

The other Kyle: Is this new Bud Norris for real or can we expect him to exit the LAD’s rotation soon after some folks get healthy?

august fagerstrom: If Kershaw, Maeda, Kazmir, Wood, and McCarthy are all healthy, have a hard time finding a spot for Norris

some guy: I’ve been a believer in the “pitchers can’t survive Coors” mantra. However, if you look back at their rotations for the past 10 years, of those that actually pitch more than 1/2 their games in Coors, there doesn’t appear to be a pattern that supports the mantra. It seems like they have simply been running bad pitchers out there. Agree or disagree?

august fagerstrom: Could argue that Coors hinders development

august fagerstrom: Or the Rockies have hindered development in the minor leagues overall

august fagerstrom: Maybe because of the impending Coors?

august fagerstrom: Would say it’s been a bit of both (Coors + actual lack of talented pitching)

Astro Boy: The Astros quickly pulled the plug on Bregman at 3B in the minor leagues, yet will call him up soon to play 3B? Is that correct?

august fagerstrom: Wasn’t aware of the former

august fagerstrom: The latter was my belief

august fagerstrom: Is my belief?

Eric: Bryson Tiller makes music for people with 7 babymommas.

august fagerstrom: I don’t have any!

august fagerstrom: So he makes music for people with 0, too!

Kyle: Would you rather be in the Batters Box facing Randy Johnson, or on the mound facing Giancarlo Stanton?

august fagerstrom: Mound, easily

Zonk: Good article on the Cubs…Cubs starting pitching has had a “real” problem the last month. But they’ve also had a 18.9% HR/FB rate, including 30% in July. Some positive regression coming?

august fagerstrom: Sure, that’s not gonna keep up, none of it’s gonna keep up, but it’s still somewhat worrisome

august fagerstrom: The Arrieta zone% drop and BB% increase was most troubling to me

Josh: Is there any truth to the chatter that the Brewers would keep Lucroy if the high value they placed on him isn’t met in trade talks, or is this just typical trade posturing?

august fagerstrom: It’d be an upset, for sure

Zonk: Given your Cubs article, what would you do if you were Cubs brass? Sounds like you mostly suggest hoping for organic improvements, other than getting a LHRP.

august fagerstrom: Would guess they’ll add at least one bullpen piece, and are likely pushing hard for Chapman/Miller

Jake : Can I have faith that after this year, or hopefully even better after the deadline, that White Sox fans will never have to watch Avi Garcia try to DH or hit in general? Or maybe the Sox still see him as the next Miguel Cabrera

august fagerstrom: It’s gotta be up after this yaer

Erik: I’ve seen many reasonable explanations for the rise in homers this year, but none provide any reason that is true of this year but not two years ago. What’s your take?

august fagerstrom: The quote at the end of my Jake Lamb piece from Monday is really interesting

august fagerstrom: Tewksbary and Pollock both insinuating that hitters across the league are changing their swings, swings that give them more power

august fagerstrom: The ball explanation still makes the most sense, but I found that quote fascinating

Guest: We have to consider Rich Hill an ‘ace’ at this point, right?

august fagerstrom: He’s a guy more than capable of consistently pitching like an ace

august fagerstrom: Ace is such a subjective term

august fagerstrom: Folks tend to prefer their aces to have multiple, consecutive 200-inning seasons, and Hill obviously is not that

Q-Ball: Is Willson Contreras really that much of a problem as a catcher? Early framing stats have him as “average”, not good or bad. Am I missing something?

august fagerstrom: Familiarity is a huge part of the catcher-pitcher relationship

august fagerstrom: Being on the same page, knowing how a pitcher succeeds, when to throw which pitchers, where, how his sequences work best, etc.

august fagerstrom: And Contreras is relatively new to catching, too

august fagerstrom: I certainly wasn’t suggesting he’s ruined the pitching — he only catches three of the five starters

august fagerstrom: But it could be something

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Someone’s gonna get hurt playing Pokémon.

august fagerstrom: I’m sure some folks already have

pants: Do you love or hate the ASG?

august fagerstrom: I dont watch it

august fagerstrom: I really couldn’t care less about any of the ASB festivities

Dan: I don’t know how the Cubs upgrade their rotation–aren’t Hendricks / Hammel two of the very best #4 and #5?

august fagerstrom: Pretty much, though Hammel could be upgraded. Mentioned this in my piece today

august fagerstrom: The problem’s 100% been the rotation, but it sure doesn’t seem like the rotation *is* a problem, if that makes sense

Kyle: Half way point of the season, who do you think survives each league and makes it to the W.S.?

august fagerstrom: I agree with the projections — the two best teams in each league, right now, look like the Cubs (still) and the Indians to me

Josh: Byron Buxton breaks out in : A) the second half B) 2017 or 2018 C) Never

august fagerstrom: Should probably look for any signs of life before a breakout

Nick Swisher: Saw Santana muffed a play at 1B…the return of Bro-hio???? I’m available.

august fagerstrom: actually not! I believe you recently took the year off to spend time with family

Britt: A CLE sportswriter said on the radio that Naquin is a trade chip at the deadline. Is there some merit to that thought or is this sportswriter overvaluing Naquin?

august fagerstrom: He was certainly a pre-season trade candidate. Now that he’s a Rookie of the Year candidate, it makes the former less likely

Eric: Jake Lamb as biggest All-Star snub?

august fagerstrom: or Crawford

Mike: what does it say about the state of these fangraph chats that the guys seem genuinely concerned when bork doesn’t say hello at the start

august fagerstrom: says I love Bork

Friend of Bork: He mentioned in chat he was becoming a father soon! Maybe that? Although cmon Bork…priorities.

august fagerstrom: maybe this is it!

Kevin: What types of questions are you looking for in these chats? Is there any particular area that is a specialty/interest of yours which you would prefer to discuss?

august fagerstrom: Only ones that I routinely pass over are fantasy and prospect, because I don’t have enough information to answer either with any degree of certainty

august fagerstrom: any and all other baseball or life questions are welcome

Dock Ellis: Going to see Radiohead in NYC in two weeks. Would you prefer seats or floor tickets if given the option? Also, did you know Kyle Lohse is still pitching in the bigs? Is he the pitching equivalent to Willie Bloomquist?

august fagerstrom: Floor, always

august fagerstrom: when Radiohead played Bonnaroo in 2012, I got to the pit ~5 hours early and missed two shows I wanted to see at other stages to get front row for Radiohead

august fagerstrom: one of my better choices. Enjoy the NYC gig.

august fagerstrom: I’m eagerly awaiting the announcement of a date near me

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: Are Indians fans perplexed with Kipnis or do you just appreciate his solid value despite what type of hitter he is year to year?

august fagerstrom: He played through injury in 2014. Beside that, when he’s healthy, he’s pretty much a 110 wRC+ guy

august fagerstrom: Nice little player

Nelson: Why are Lefty pitchers such a big deal, when the majority of people in the world are righties?

august fagerstrom: think you just answered your own question

Ryan M: What is Dan Vogelbachs value in a deal? Obviously he has more value to an AL team. But he’s not a centerpiece nor is he a throw in, right? What is his trade value

august fagerstrom: yeah, complementary piece

august fagerstrom: first basemen/DH never gonna have great trade value

Matt: If you had concerns about the Rangers right now, what would they be?

august fagerstrom: everyone that’s not a hitter or Cole Hamels, basically

PATRICK: What do the royals give up fo rich hill

august fagerstrom: not sure the Royals should be looking to buy, tbh

Phil: Especially given the lack of available starting pitching this winter, doesn’t it make sense for the Nationals to trade big Gio or Roark? You’re never going to be able to get a higher return on them and the nationals presumably will be able to throw in Giolito, Lopez or Voth into the 5th role next year.

Obviously their depth takes a hit, but would you shop them?

august fagerstrom: Right now? No, a World Series contender should not be looking to make their roster worse

j6takish: Jeff constantly makes jokes regarding the boringness of the padres. Which MLB franchise do you constantly need to be reminded of its existence?

august fagerstrom: I need to constantly remind myself that the Orioles always win

ShakeyourtooshyHasegawa: So I’m 6′-6″, 240; good size and played D1 baseball. To hit for power, despite my size, I’d still describe my swing as max effort. Chris Davis looks like he’s flicking his wrists out there. Anyone else you can think of that looks like he’s putting less effort into crushing dingers?

august fagerstrom: Used to love this about Manny Ramirez

Bernie: Gallo for Chapman/Miller. Who says no?

august fagerstrom: Chapman and Miller are insanely different trade commodities

baltic wolf: Hey August: what are your thoughts on Dan Vogelbach? Guy sure can hit with great plate discipline. Do the Cubs let him rot in the minors as depth at 1B or does he get traded to an AL team where he becomes a DH?

august fagerstrom: He gets dealt

Dog: Do you think Rangers will actually go after Lucroy? They seem to have bigger needs (rotation, bullpen)

august fagerstrom: Could say that Lucroy could help those

Bart: What’s your thoughts on Jared Eickhoff?

august fagerstrom: Solid mid-rotation arm. Good, cheap guy for a rebuilding club

Erik: Hitters changing swings is believable, but is that really the sort of thing which could happen so suddenly and on such a widespread scale? It seemed to happen in the middle of last year, too, and a league-wide trend of hitters adjusting their swings all in the same way in midseason seems unlikely.

august fagerstrom: Right, this is what makes that theory tough

august fagerstrom: AND what makes the ball theory so easily explainable

Larry Bernandez: Dave has in the past explained how lineup protection is a myth, but I still I’ll don’t quite understand. Can you explain the reasoning?

august fagerstrom: From what I understand, it does have an effect, in that the protected player draws some more walks. But there’s no evidence that shows anyone’s overall performance is affected. It’s just a different type of performance

Frank: Do you play fantasy baseball?

august fagerstrom: Played in one league my whole life, but I’ve started to lose interest the last couple years with baseball becoming my job

august fagerstrom: This is likely my last year

Ben: Is it crazy to think javier baez is better than addison russell

august fagerstrom: crazy is a little strong

august fagerstrom: but that’s not an opinion I’d share

Pie: Re: Bregman. Luhnow has said that he wanted his transition to hitting in AAA to be complete before he also added in having him play 3B there, hence why he’s been at SS the past couple weeks. The stated plan is to eventually (soon) get him substantial PT at 3B.

august fagerstrom: there you have it!

august fagerstrom: thanks, Pie

Hypothetically: If a team of yous is facing a team of Giancarlos. What’s your strategy? And what’s your prediction for the final score?

august fagerstrom: my strategy is have a team full of Kershaws

Schland : Who will win AL rookie of the year and why is it Max Kepler?

august fagerstrom: right now it’s between Fulmer and Naquin

august fagerstrom: Mazara in the mix, too

august fagerstrom: Possibly even the favorite to take it in the second half

august fagerstrom: Not that Kepler doesnt have a chance, but he wouldnt be my pick at this juncture

Bork: AUGUST IM SORRY IM LATE IM IN DOCTOR WAITING ROOM WITH BORKWIFE RE: PREGNANCY

august fagerstrom: !!!

august fagerstrom: I wish we could have verified usernames on here so I’d know if this were the real Bork

august fagerstrom: The fact that he used “BORKWIFE” makes me think it is, though

august fagerstrom: And if so, god damn is that some dedication that I respect, Mr. Bork

august fagerstrom: Congrats on your potentially real child

Eric: Thoughts on Chris Sale and if he should go back to striking out 11 per 9 innings?

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I think if he can do that he probably should

Bart: What are the odds that Matt Harvey makes a complete recovery and returns to his former self in 2017?

august fagerstrom: Don’t love the history of pitchers with thoracic outlet syndrome

Jd: Do you like extra wild card spots? Seems like it makes it impossible to trade for anyone especially since of the few teams selling (braves) got spoiled by the dbacks this past offseason.

august fagerstrom: I do, yeah. Seems to bring more intensity to the end of the seaosn

Rob V.W.: when the fangraphs crew meets do you all stop, collaborate and listen?

august fagerstrom: we mostly drink

Larry: Can throwing “too hard” be a problem for pitchers? I see these guys getting hurt more often than finesse pitchers.

august fagerstrom: Pretty sure velocity is the biggest indicator of health risk for pitchers

Big Joe Monferrant: Stanton seemed to make a mockery of the Derby last night. Does his power break the 20-80 scale Ala Hamilton speed?

august fagerstrom: no, it’s just an 80, and that’s why you almost never see 80’s

Mike Trout: Do I miss another MVP this year because of the ineptitude surrounding me?

august fagerstrom: seems very possible :\

Macho Man: Is taking pitches a team strategy or is it up to each batter’s discretion?

august fagerstrom: Both, but certain teams seem to really stress it more than others

august fagerstrom: I mean, it’s always up to the batter to execute whatever he/his team want him to do

august fagerstrom: But, like, it was very apparent in the 2000’s that the Red Sox were preaching working the count. Was very apparent last year that the Rays were preaching early-count swings

Eric: Where have Sale’s strikeouts gone?

august fagerstrom: Wrote about this in early May, though surely some things have changed since then: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/chris-sale-is-pitching-to-contact-now/

august fagerstrom: Idea is the same, thogh

august fagerstrom: He made a conscious effort to pitch to contact this season

Kyle: If Clayton Kershaw and Serena Williams had a baby, and Mike Trout and Ronda Rousey had a baby. And those babies grew up to have a baby together, would it become the greatest pitcher or Greatest position player of all time?

august fagerstrom: President

Ben: Who’s the biggest name Braves trade at the deadline? Markakis? Francoeur? Other than Teheran they don’t have much left to trade…

august fagerstrom: Vizcaino

E: Guys who played in the MLB – Scott Hatteberg, Rich Aurilia, Brian Lawrence, Scott Linebrink, Paul Lo Duca

august fagerstrom: Scott Linebrink!!!

august fagerstrom: great one

august fagerstrom: almost got through an entire chat without a “five recently-old baseball names” post

august fagerstrom: phew

kevinthecomic: Isn’t velocity also the single biggest indicator of success for pitchers?

august fagerstrom: a vicious cycle

Bork: What happened to MATT DAMON?

august fagerstrom: what the hell, man

august fagerstrom: all my chat regulars dipping out on me this week

Kyle: Mazara’s batting stance bugs me. No question. Just a statement of opinion.

august fagerstrom: nothing worse than a player you want to enjoy having an aesthetically displeasing stance/delivery

Avi: Its all star week, they are on break.

august fagerstrom: good point

MATT DAMON: MATT. DAMON.

august fagerstrom: HEYYO

august fagerstrom: alright, that was a nice little stretch to end things

august fagerstrom: thanks for chatting, everyone

august fagerstrom: if you’re someone who enjoys the All-Star Game, well, enjoy the All-Star Game

Bork: Goodbye, friend!

august fagerstrom: bye, Bork!

august fagerstrom: good luck with the BORKFAMILY