August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 9/20/16
| 12:09 |
: starting chat soon!
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| 12:14 |
: ok, let us begin
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| 12:15 |
: while listening to Andre Benjamin:
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| 12:16 |
: Hello, friend!
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| 12:16 |
: hello, Bork!
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| 12:16 |
: Any idea on why a lot of guys with middling power like Galvis are doubling and tripling their HR totals, while most traditional heavy hitters like Trout aren’t experiencing a significant bump?
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| 12:18 |
: Not a great one, no, but it *does* seem to lend some credence to the thought that maybe this sudden power spike has more to do with coaching/process than anything else. It does seem that many of these guys hitting for more power/loft than we expected — Altuve, Betts, Bregman, Dozier, etc — are smaller guys, and maybe that’s something teams have realized, that small guys can be power hitters too, as long as their swing is right
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| 12:18 |
: Still doesn’t explain the fact that the home run spike was so sudden after the All-Star Break, and it’s not like every coaching staff came up with the idea to get their small guys to create loft all at once last July
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| 12:18 |
: But the home run spike doesn’t have to be explained by just one thing
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| 12:19 |
: I think coaching has a lot to do with it
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| 12:20 |
: Clayton Kershaw has regained the MLB lead in SP WAR. Is he your Cy Young?
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| 12:21 |
: As far as I know, there’s no innings/qualification restriction for the Cy Young, so it’ll be a fascinating argument
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| 12:22 |
: I… kinda think so?
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| 12:22 |
: It’s funny, for as much talk as there’s been about the AL Cy Young pool being ambiguous, the NL candidates might be equally so
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| 12:23 |
: There’s not much clear separation between Scherzer/Fernandez/Syndergaard, and the case for Hendricks probably isn’t too crazy
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| 12:23 |
: Kershaw has obviously been the most impressive of the three
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| 12:24 |
: Dansby Swanson is currently slashing 305/358/421 while posting a wRC+ of 98. Am I just missing something or is that really a below league average slash-line now?
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| 12:24 |
: It’s above-average on-base and below-average power
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| 12:24 |
: That OBP is 28 points above league-average. The ISO is 49 points below league average. About evens out.
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| 12:26 |
: Will Mike clevinger ever cut down on all these walks?
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| 12:26 |
: Ever? He’s thrown 45 major league innings. It’s not like he’s running out of time
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| 12:26 |
: This year? This year’s a different question
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| 12:28 |
: What should I have for lunch – burrito or Chicken Parm sandwich?
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| 12:28 |
: Always burrito
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| 12:28 |
: Guys who played in the MLB: Chad Tracy, Paul Byrd, Craig Wilson, Chad Cordero, Doug Mirabelli
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| 12:28 |
: shoutout E
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| 12:28 |
: Your favorite Brian Eno album?
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| 12:29 |
: his work with Talking Heads/Bowie is my favorite stuff he’s worked on
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| 12:30 |
: as far as solo stuff I’m a fan of Another Green World, though I admittedly haven’t listened to as much of his discography as I probably should
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| 12:31 |
: are home runs per plate appearance up? or just the total number of home runs?
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| 12:31 |
: home runs per plate appearance are the highest they’ve ever been, ever
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| 12:32 |
: tied with 2000
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| 12:32 |
: that’s home runs per hit
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| 12:32 |
: my initial statement may have been a lie
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| 12:32 |
: it’s close, though
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| 12:33 |
: Was listening to BP Mets podcast and they brought up an interesting point, relevant today for Lugo and Gsellman. They mentioned that the Mets pitcher development is crazy unique (in a positive way) in that you can look at a Mets minor league pitcher evaluation and simply say that when they reach the majors, they will add 2-3 mph on the fastball and add a plus slider. The thought of this seems crazy, but looking back at Matz, Harvey, Degrom, Thor, Gsellman and now lugo, this notion might not be so crazy. What do you think?
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| 12:34 |
: the “add 3 mph and a plus slider” is probably a bit of a generalization, but it’s not a generalization to say the Mets appear to have gotten very good at developing pitchers
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| 12:34 |
: and obviously Warthen has a reputation for teaching the slider
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| 12:34 |
: they haven’t done a great job of keeping them healthy, though, and that can be just as important
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| 12:34 |
: if the White Sox injury prevention guys can just join forces with the Mets pitcher development guys…
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| 12:35 |
: How much MVP consideration could you see Freddie Freeman getting?
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| 12:35 |
: about none
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| 12:36 |
: Why is Nick Markakis viewed so bad by so many fangraphs folks?
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| 12:36 |
: is he? I think he’s just viewed as what he is: an average player, and nothing more
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| 12:37 |
: he’s a league-average hitter who doesn’t run or play great defense. how should he be viewed?
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| 12:37 |
: What are your thoughts on Patrick Weigel and Max Povse, starters?
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| 12:37 |
: I swear you guys make up these names to screw with me
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| 12:38 |
: (Eric Longenhagen is the prospect guy, if these are real major league prospects. I have no thoughts on them)
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| 12:38 |
: Even tho Kemp has 30+ HR he’s still pretty worthless right?
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| 12:38 |
: Pretty much, yeah. He’s too bad in the field to be worth anything to a National League team, and he’s not a good enough hitter to be worth anything to an American League team as a DH
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| 12:39 |
: Has there been work on whether starters going deep into games has a measurable impact on bullpen effectiveness? (I’ll admit I’m trying to make a saber-friendly CY argument for Porcello.)
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| 12:39 |
: I’m honestly not sure, but it’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing last night.
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| 12:40 |
: Although my line of thinking was talking myself into giving him some credit for his pitching wins (gasp!) by sticking around long enough in games for his offense to score him runs
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| 12:40 |
: The league’s slugging % is the same as 2009. 2007 was higher.
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| 12:40 |
: Slugging% isn’t a measure of power, though
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| 12:41 |
: You realize 19 players in the NL received MVP votes in 2015, over 20 in the AL. Freeman is the 3rd best position player in the NL this year. Not saying he should win, but should get plenty of votes.
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| 12:41 |
: I take “consideration” to mean “first-place consideration”
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| 12:42 |
: Nick Markakis has been really good over the last 2 months or so.
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| 12:42 |
: Guess we can throw out the past seven and a half years then
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| 12:43 |
: On the playoff odds page, could you explain why the Astros are expected to win a tenth of a game more than the Mariners, yet have a tenth of percentage point less than the Mariners of making the playoffs?
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| 12:44 |
: I can not, though I’m guessing it’s got something to do with the remaining schedules
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| 12:44 |
: At what point does FIP not mean as much for a pitcher? Like for example Julio Teheran? He’s out-performed it his whole career, yet he takes heat every year for not being as good as it seems.
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| 12:44 |
: By year three or so I start to consider the possibility of a guy as a FIP-beater/underperformer, and by about year five I fully believe in it
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| 12:45 |
: So, like, I just published a post on Tanner Roark, FIP Beater
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| 12:45 |
: He’s three years in. I’m starting to consider the possibility that he actually possesses contact suppression/called strike/whatever skills. But I’m not *totally* buying it until he does it for another year or two
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| 12:45 |
: Teheran gets a little extra credit for his pickoff move
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| 12:45 |
: Theo said Chapman upped the Cubs internal World Series forecasts by 5%. Does that seem high/low/rght?
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| 12:46 |
: Seems high
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| 12:46 |
: Braves fans must be bored.
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| 12:46 |
: Yeah, I don’t know what’s going on. There’s been a disproportionate number of Braves questions in the queue. Is this Kiley’s doing somehow?
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| 12:47 |
: I think these Markakis folks are trolling. Dan or Dave (I forget which) said there were at least 50 Markakis questions in his chat the other day.
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| 12:47 |
: hmm…
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| 12:47 |
: For awhile it looked like Dylan Bundy was going to be the pitcher that he projected to be when in the minors. His last couple of outings it seems he has hit a wall. Which Bundy will we see next year?
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| 12:48 |
: The recent performance probably isn’t totally shocking, given he’s thrown twice as many innings this year than he has in any year since 2012
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| 12:48 |
: He showed the flashes this year. Give him an offseason of prepping as a starter and count in me as interested
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| 12:49 |
: Your 3/5 rule for FIP beaters…is that just a point that seems to make sense, or is there analysis on that? Just curious
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| 12:49 |
: Just makes sense to me
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| 12:50 |
: It’s probably subconsciously informed by analysis I’ve read, though
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| 12:51 |
: Do you see Folty figuring it out and being a pure #3 or better?
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| 12:51 |
: I can say there’s a lot to like there
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| 12:51 |
: Big fan of the upside
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| 12:52 |
: Was the power spike so sudden after last year’s ASG? What are the 2015 month-by-month splits? HR rate wasn’t climbing already?
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| 12:52 |
| 12:53 |
: “On the whole, the percentage increase in second-half HR/Contact, relative to first-half HR/Contact, was higher for the 2015 regular season than for any previous season since at least 1950.”
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| 12:54 |
: Markakis people are trolls – I believe initiating with Dan Szym, since he’s an O’s fan and has quite witty/over the top responses.
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| 12:54 |
: They were definitely trolling Dan.
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| 12:54 |
: oh, ok
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| 12:55 |
: well I’m not Dan
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| 12:55 |
: so that joke isn’t exactly landing
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| 12:56 |
: Could a team like the White Sox rebuild fairly quickly if they went that route? Teams like the Phillies and Braves seem to be on the right path. It seems the best way to consistent success. The White Sox have stars, but too many holes and more will open up after ’17.
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| 12:56 |
: the White Sox could rebuild insanely quickly
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| 12:56 |
: they could do it in two trades
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| 12:57 |
: I’ve been of the belief for a couple years now that they should rebuild. Williams/Hahn seem to have other plans
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| 12:57 |
: Your top three for the AL Cy Young, as of today?
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| 12:57 |
: Tanaka/Kluber/Sale in no order
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| 12:58 |
: interesting thing is DRA has Sale as like a full win better than either guy
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| 12:58 |
: and the highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball
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| 12:59 |
: If Justin Smoak and JP Arencibia pitched to each other who would strike out more?
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| 12:59 |
: yes
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| 12:59 |
: Do you think the Mets re-invest the Tebow windfall on major league payroll? Re-sign Cespedes, maybe pick up a catcher like Ramos, or acquire a big money 1B/OF if they miss out on Ces?
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| 12:59 |
: wait what
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| 1:01 |
: Your Roark piece reads as the proxy case for Hendricks/Cy Young.
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| 1:01 |
: Hendricks has just been Roark, +1
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| 1:01 |
: If you wrote all of your article sitting upside-down, would you refer to player’s potential as “downside”?
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| 1:01 |
: guess there’s only one way to find out
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| 1:02 |
: I heard grumblings in a Coffee shop near Turner Field from two guys wearing suits, your name was mentioned. Wonder if Kiley is trying to bring you aboard.
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| 1:02 |
: Kiley has never worn a suit
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| 1:02 |
: Wouldn’t it make more sense to trade Ender who’s really valuable, and give CF to Mallex? They could package Ender with prospects.
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| 1:02 |
: wonder if the DBacks would give them Shelby Miller for him
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| 1:04 |
: Curious as to what you like about Tanaka over Verlander. They’re obviously close. But what sets Tanaka apart, in your eyes?
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| 1:04 |
: well I should note first that I simply named those names off the top of my head
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| 1:04 |
: if I had an actual AL Cy vote, I’d go through it for hours
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| 1:05 |
: but I mean, Tanaka has the AL’s best ERA and a better FIP than Verlander while pitching in a tougher park and a tougher division, so that’s a good start
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| 1:05 |
: do you ever get burned out on baseball?
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| 1:05 |
: yep
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| 1:06 |
: and then I realize my career is literally to watch and think and write about baseball and that in the grand scheme of things I’ve got it pretty good, and I’m not so burned out anymore
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| 1:06 |
: Mostly I was wondering what your thoughts on the Mets’ offseason plan were, with a subtle jab at their finances and Tebow merchandising deal
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| 1:07 |
: oh, I see. Cespedes return seems unlikely. They didn’t seem willing to shell out the big money for him last year, and his value has only increased
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| 1:07 |
: and the rest of their offseason plan would obviously revolve around whether or not they were able to retain him
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| 1:08 |
: I asked Dan and he had no answer to this. I’ve heard several authors on here refer to Mike Aviles as an awesome person and that’s why he’s still on a roster. What’s so awesome about him? I’ve never heard any references as to why but it’s like universally accepted on here.
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| 1:09 |
: He’s just a really genuine, good dude.
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| 1:10 |
: Covering him on the Indians in 2014-15 was a pleasure. One of my favorite athletes I’ve ever had multiple interactions with. Down to earth, funny, respectful, by all accounts a great father/friend/teammate. He’s an awesome person for probably most of the same reasons anyone in your life is awesome.
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| 1:10 |
: Should the twins try to trade Brian dozier?
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| 1:10 |
: Probably, yeah
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| 1:11 |
: Why am I not being considered for a Cy Young?
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| 1:11 |
: not enough strikeouts
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| 1:12 |
: Alright, y’all. Most of the unanswered questions in the queue are about Nick Markakis and I’m about to pass out from starvation, so that’ll wrap this up
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| 1:12 |
: Thanks for chatting
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| 1:12 |
: same time same place next week
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August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
*ahem* Sir, regarding your reply to the first query, Odor has more HR than any of the other players you mentioned.
Sir, regarding your reply to his reply to the first query, he’s probably not obligated to mention every member of the class of players in question. It’s a chat.