August Fagerstrom FanGraphs Chat — 9/20/16

august fagerstrom: starting chat soon!

august fagerstrom: ok, let us begin

august fagerstrom: while listening to Andre Benjamin:

Borkmeisel: Hello, friend!

august fagerstrom: hello, Bork!

The Lure of the Animal: Any idea on why a lot of guys with middling power like Galvis are doubling and tripling their HR totals, while most traditional heavy hitters like Trout aren’t experiencing a significant bump?

august fagerstrom: Not a great one, no, but it *does* seem to lend some credence to the thought that maybe this sudden power spike has more to do with coaching/process than anything else. It does seem that many of these guys hitting for more power/loft than we expected — Altuve, Betts, Bregman, Dozier, etc — are smaller guys, and maybe that’s something teams have realized, that small guys can be power hitters too, as long as their swing is right

august fagerstrom: Still doesn’t explain the fact that the home run spike was so sudden after the All-Star Break, and it’s not like every coaching staff came up with the idea to get their small guys to create loft all at once last July

august fagerstrom: But the home run spike doesn’t have to be explained by just one thing

august fagerstrom: I think coaching has a lot to do with it

Edward Van Halen: Clayton Kershaw has regained the MLB lead in SP WAR. Is he your Cy Young?

august fagerstrom: As far as I know, there’s no innings/qualification restriction for the Cy Young, so it’ll be a fascinating argument

august fagerstrom: I… kinda think so?

august fagerstrom: It’s funny, for as much talk as there’s been about the AL Cy Young pool being ambiguous, the NL candidates might be equally so

august fagerstrom: There’s not much clear separation between Scherzer/Fernandez/Syndergaard, and the case for Hendricks probably isn’t too crazy

august fagerstrom: Kershaw has obviously been the most impressive of the three

Mike_C: Dansby Swanson is currently slashing 305/358/421 while posting a wRC+ of 98. Am I just missing something or is that really a below league average slash-line now?

august fagerstrom: It’s above-average on-base and below-average power

august fagerstrom: That OBP is 28 points above league-average. The ISO is 49 points below league average. About evens out.

nelson: Will Mike clevinger ever cut down on all these walks?

august fagerstrom: Ever? He’s thrown 45 major league innings. It’s not like he’s running out of time

august fagerstrom: This year? This year’s a different question

Matt: What should I have for lunch – burrito or Chicken Parm sandwich?

august fagerstrom: Always burrito

E: Guys who played in the MLB: Chad Tracy, Paul Byrd, Craig Wilson, Chad Cordero, Doug Mirabelli

august fagerstrom: shoutout E

Coltrane: Your favorite Brian Eno album?

august fagerstrom: his work with Talking Heads/Bowie is my favorite stuff he’s worked on

august fagerstrom: as far as solo stuff I’m a fan of Another Green World, though I admittedly haven’t listened to as much of his discography as I probably should

matt: are home runs per plate appearance up? or just the total number of home runs?

august fagerstrom: home runs per plate appearance are the highest they’ve ever been, ever

august fagerstrom: http://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

august fagerstrom: tied with 2000

august fagerstrom: that’s home runs per hit

august fagerstrom: my initial statement may have been a lie

august fagerstrom: it’s close, though

Alex: Was listening to BP Mets podcast and they brought up an interesting point, relevant today for Lugo and Gsellman. They mentioned that the Mets pitcher development is crazy unique (in a positive way) in that you can look at a Mets minor league pitcher evaluation and simply say that when they reach the majors, they will add 2-3 mph on the fastball and add a plus slider. The thought of this seems crazy, but looking back at Matz, Harvey, Degrom, Thor, Gsellman and now lugo, this notion might not be so crazy. What do you think?

august fagerstrom: the “add 3 mph and a plus slider” is probably a bit of a generalization, but it’s not a generalization to say the Mets appear to have gotten very good at developing pitchers

august fagerstrom: and obviously Warthen has a reputation for teaching the slider

august fagerstrom: they haven’t done a great job of keeping them healthy, though, and that can be just as important

august fagerstrom: if the White Sox injury prevention guys can just join forces with the Mets pitcher development guys…

Johnny: How much MVP consideration could you see Freddie Freeman getting?

august fagerstrom: about none

Eric: Why is Nick Markakis viewed so bad by so many fangraphs folks?

august fagerstrom: is he? I think he’s just viewed as what he is: an average player, and nothing more

august fagerstrom: he’s a league-average hitter who doesn’t run or play great defense. how should he be viewed?

James: What are your thoughts on Patrick Weigel and Max Povse, starters?

august fagerstrom: I swear you guys make up these names to screw with me

august fagerstrom: (Eric Longenhagen is the prospect guy, if these are real major league prospects. I have no thoughts on them)

Blaine: Even tho Kemp has 30+ HR he’s still pretty worthless right?

august fagerstrom: Pretty much, yeah. He’s too bad in the field to be worth anything to a National League team, and he’s not a good enough hitter to be worth anything to an American League team as a DH

Jim Lonborg: Has there been work on whether starters going deep into games has a measurable impact on bullpen effectiveness? (I’ll admit I’m trying to make a saber-friendly CY argument for Porcello.)

august fagerstrom: I’m honestly not sure, but it’s funny you mention that because I was thinking the same thing last night.

august fagerstrom: Although my line of thinking was talking myself into giving him some credit for his pitching wins (gasp!) by sticking around long enough in games for his offense to score him runs

CamdenWarehouse: The league’s slugging % is the same as 2009. 2007 was higher.

august fagerstrom: Slugging% isn’t a measure of power, though

Johnny: You realize 19 players in the NL received MVP votes in 2015, over 20 in the AL. Freeman is the 3rd best position player in the NL this year. Not saying he should win, but should get plenty of votes.

august fagerstrom: I take “consideration” to mean “first-place consideration”

Khan: Nick Markakis has been really good over the last 2 months or so.

august fagerstrom: Guess we can throw out the past seven and a half years then

Joe W: On the playoff odds page, could you explain why the Astros are expected to win a tenth of a game more than the Mariners, yet have a tenth of percentage point less than the Mariners of making the playoffs?

august fagerstrom: I can not, though I’m guessing it’s got something to do with the remaining schedules

Youngman: At what point does FIP not mean as much for a pitcher? Like for example Julio Teheran? He’s out-performed it his whole career, yet he takes heat every year for not being as good as it seems.

august fagerstrom: By year three or so I start to consider the possibility of a guy as a FIP-beater/underperformer, and by about year five I fully believe in it

august fagerstrom: So, like, I just published a post on Tanner Roark, FIP Beater

august fagerstrom: He’s three years in. I’m starting to consider the possibility that he actually possesses contact suppression/called strike/whatever skills. But I’m not *totally* buying it until he does it for another year or two

august fagerstrom: Teheran gets a little extra credit for his pickoff move

jon: Theo said Chapman upped the Cubs internal World Series forecasts by 5%. Does that seem high/low/rght?

august fagerstrom: Seems high

Justin: Braves fans must be bored.

august fagerstrom: Yeah, I don’t know what’s going on. There’s been a disproportionate number of Braves questions in the queue. Is this Kiley’s doing somehow?

Eric: I think these Markakis folks are trolling. Dan or Dave (I forget which) said there were at least 50 Markakis questions in his chat the other day.

august fagerstrom: hmm…

Arnie: For awhile it looked like Dylan Bundy was going to be the pitcher that he projected to be when in the minors. His last couple of outings it seems he has hit a wall. Which Bundy will we see next year?

august fagerstrom: The recent performance probably isn’t totally shocking, given he’s thrown twice as many innings this year than he has in any year since 2012

august fagerstrom: He showed the flashes this year. Give him an offseason of prepping as a starter and count in me as interested

Matt: Your 3/5 rule for FIP beaters…is that just a point that seems to make sense, or is there analysis on that? Just curious

august fagerstrom: Just makes sense to me

august fagerstrom: It’s probably subconsciously informed by analysis I’ve read, though

Hank: Do you see Folty figuring it out and being a pure #3 or better?

august fagerstrom: I can say there’s a lot to like there

august fagerstrom: Big fan of the upside

Andrew: Was the power spike so sudden after last year’s ASG? What are the 2015 month-by-month splits? HR rate wasn’t climbing already?

august fagerstrom: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-baseball-mystery-the-home-run-is-back-and-no-one-knows-why/

august fagerstrom: “On the whole, the percentage increase in second-half HR/Contact, relative to first-half HR/Contact, was higher for the 2015 regular season than for any previous season since at least 1950.”

Matt: Markakis people are trolls – I believe initiating with Dan Szym, since he’s an O’s fan and has quite witty/over the top responses.

Brendan: They were definitely trolling Dan.

august fagerstrom: oh, ok

august fagerstrom: well I’m not Dan

august fagerstrom: so that joke isn’t exactly landing

Rob: Could a team like the White Sox rebuild fairly quickly if they went that route? Teams like the Phillies and Braves seem to be on the right path. It seems the best way to consistent success. The White Sox have stars, but too many holes and more will open up after ’17.

august fagerstrom: the White Sox could rebuild insanely quickly

august fagerstrom: they could do it in two trades

august fagerstrom: I’ve been of the belief for a couple years now that they should rebuild. Williams/Hahn seem to have other plans

Jesse: Your top three for the AL Cy Young, as of today?

august fagerstrom: Tanaka/Kluber/Sale in no order

august fagerstrom: interesting thing is DRA has Sale as like a full win better than either guy

august fagerstrom: and the highest WAR of any pitcher in baseball

Bork: If Justin Smoak and JP Arencibia pitched to each other who would strike out more?

august fagerstrom: yes

Moltar: Do you think the Mets re-invest the Tebow windfall on major league payroll? Re-sign Cespedes, maybe pick up a catcher like Ramos, or acquire a big money 1B/OF if they miss out on Ces?

august fagerstrom: wait what

jon: Your Roark piece reads as the proxy case for Hendricks/Cy Young.

august fagerstrom: Hendricks has just been Roark, +1

Matt: If you wrote all of your article sitting upside-down, would you refer to player’s potential as “downside”?

august fagerstrom: guess there’s only one way to find out

Alex: I heard grumblings in a Coffee shop near Turner Field from two guys wearing suits, your name was mentioned. Wonder if Kiley is trying to bring you aboard.

august fagerstrom: Kiley has never worn a suit

Paul: Wouldn’t it make more sense to trade Ender who’s really valuable, and give CF to Mallex? They could package Ender with prospects.

august fagerstrom: wonder if the DBacks would give them Shelby Miller for him

The other Kyle: Curious as to what you like about Tanaka over Verlander. They’re obviously close. But what sets Tanaka apart, in your eyes?

august fagerstrom: well I should note first that I simply named those names off the top of my head

august fagerstrom: if I had an actual AL Cy vote, I’d go through it for hours

august fagerstrom: but I mean, Tanaka has the AL’s best ERA and a better FIP than Verlander while pitching in a tougher park and a tougher division, so that’s a good start

tommylasagna: do you ever get burned out on baseball?

august fagerstrom: yep

august fagerstrom: and then I realize my career is literally to watch and think and write about baseball and that in the grand scheme of things I’ve got it pretty good, and I’m not so burned out anymore

Moltar: Mostly I was wondering what your thoughts on the Mets’ offseason plan were, with a subtle jab at their finances and Tebow merchandising deal

august fagerstrom: oh, I see. Cespedes return seems unlikely. They didn’t seem willing to shell out the big money for him last year, and his value has only increased

august fagerstrom: and the rest of their offseason plan would obviously revolve around whether or not they were able to retain him

Burts_beads: I asked Dan and he had no answer to this. I’ve heard several authors on here refer to Mike Aviles as an awesome person and that’s why he’s still on a roster. What’s so awesome about him? I’ve never heard any references as to why but it’s like universally accepted on here.

august fagerstrom: He’s just a really genuine, good dude.

august fagerstrom: Covering him on the Indians in 2014-15 was a pleasure. One of my favorite athletes I’ve ever had multiple interactions with. Down to earth, funny, respectful, by all accounts a great father/friend/teammate. He’s an awesome person for probably most of the same reasons anyone in your life is awesome.

Noah: Should the twins try to trade Brian dozier?

august fagerstrom: Probably, yeah

Joey Votto: Why am I not being considered for a Cy Young?

august fagerstrom: not enough strikeouts

august fagerstrom: Alright, y’all. Most of the unanswered questions in the queue are about Nick Markakis and I’m about to pass out from starvation, so that’ll wrap this up

august fagerstrom: Thanks for chatting

august fagerstrom: same time same place next week