To the best of my knowledge, nobody has appointed me as president of label assignments, but I think calling Brian Wilson a great reliever is a worthwhile argument. He holds a 3.04 FIP over his 253-inning career and a 2.13 FIP this season in 65 innings. Wilson might be the best reliever in the National League and if he’s not, he’s probably still worthy of discussion.

It’s Friday night and the Giants are playing the Padres. It’s the top of the ninth inning with the Giants batting. The bags are full as they attempt to build on a one-run lead. Wilson – who entered in the eighth to record two outs with a runner on – is due up. Buster Posey is available to pinch hit – although evidently the Giants wanted to avoid playing him at all costs – and the bottom of the Padres’ lineup is due up in the bottom half of the inning. Righty Ryan Webb is on the mound. The Giants do not pinch hit and Wilson hits into an unorthodox double play (Juan Uribe was called for interference after grabbing the catcher’s leg while sliding by at the plate).

The Giants won the game, quenching any potential steam from the decision, but wasting time on a moot point has never stopped me before, so here we go. In The Book, Tom Tango (and company) found the difference in conversion percentage with at least a three-run lead in the ninth between a “great” pitcher and an “average” pitcher to be 2%. The Giants had used a few relievers on the night, but still had someone like, say, Jeremy Affeldt available for duty.

Now, the obvious thing here is there is no guarantee the Giants score a run no matter who bats. Wilson had nine career plate appearances in the bigs entering Friday and had never actually reached base. Maybe Wilson puts on laser shows during batting practice … but I doubt that. My assumption is that just about anyone is an upgrade. Here are the players on the Giants’ active roster who had not been used in the game, with their season-long wOBA (not including players with fewer than 50 plate appearances to give Bruce Bochy even more breathing room) taxed to include the 10% pinch hitter penalty:

Travis Ishikawa .273
Pablo Sandoval .284
Eugenio Velez .258

In order to justify not making the switch, one must believe that either: A) Wilson is a good hitting pitcher; B) the rest of the Giants’ pen is horri-awful; or C) both. Perhaps my initial reaction to bury Bochy in a snarkophagus was too strong, but I still think pinch-hitting is the best decision in the situation.

A sign that your offense is not playing well:

Arbitrary endpoints aside, anytime three of your regulars rank third, second, and dead last in on-base percentage it is a bad development. Juan Rivera is just one of the trio diagnosed with the newly developed mysophobia (associated with all those base-inhibiting germs), but that fear is causing those with microphobia to go bananas over his on-base percentage.

Just last season, Rivera posted a 113 wRC+ — the second best figure of his Angels’ career – while reaching a career high in plate appearances. Rivera’s 2010 season bares more of a resemblance to his injured campaigns of 2007 and 2008 than 2009. As it stands, Rivera’s 85 wRC+ is identical to the 2008 season. Rivera is no longer hitting for the power that he is wont to do. His .147 ISO more than 10 points below his previous career low – which he established as a 25-year-old – and more than 30 points below his career average.

Rivera’s home run per flyball percentage has dipped below 10% of the first time in his career. At the same time, he’s hitting about as many infield flyballs as his career rate would suggest. Meaning that those looking for some proof that his bat has slowed have to look elsewhere for the proof; the same applies to his swinging strike rates and (for the most part) his run values by pitch breakdown.

A further part of that subtraction is married to a deflated batting average on balls in play. However, some of it could be skill decay too. Rivera is now 32. Not just 32, but 32 with a history of physical ailments prompting numerous trips to the disabled list. Such a package does not promote gentle aging, even if all players are master of their own DNA and generalizing is a bad thing.

Rivera is under contract for one more season for what appeared to be a reasonable rate ($5.25 million). Another season like this one, though, will have that contract looking dubious.

Before his unfortunate knee injury, Carlos Santana was on top of the rookie world. Through 192 plate appearances, his wOBA sat at .382 — an impressive number for a 24-year-old backstop. Logan Morrison is not a catcher. Nor is Morrison 24 (he will not be in his 24-year-old season until 2012), but through his first 176 plate appearances, he holds a .404 WOBA.

Morrison is posting that number through a strong walk rate (15.3%), a fair walk-to-strikeout ratio (0.87), some power (.176 ISO despite a 2.8% HR/FB), and an inflated BABIP (.397). He’s not as young or hyped as Jason Heyward or Starlin Castro, but prorating his WAR to date through 500 plate appearances – admittedly not a perfect science and one used purely for narrative purposes – results in a four-win season; not too shabby for someone lost in the Marlins’ season.

Oddly, Morrison is not without his own injury misadventure, making him a nice fit next to Heyward, Santana, and that injured rookie pitching phenom. Over the weekend, Morrison took a foul ball to the face – an injury that sounds painful and looked worse – but he missed almost no time because of it. Clearly there are only three explanations for this: 1) he has a face of steel; 2) he is the Terminator; 3) there is only one explanation: that being that both are true.

The only blemish on Morrison’s season to date is his defensive play, although that’s a bit harsh given the circumstances. Entering this year, he’d seen all of two games in the outfield, and he played in only 19 games in the minors before replacing the injured Chris Coghlan as the everyday left fielder. Gaby Sanchez has played well enough to keep his job, but Morrison is doing his part to ensure that both are in the lineup on a daily basis.

Bobby Abreu has a .339 wOBA. That figure represents the lowest of Abreu’s career in seasons that he recorded at least 500 plate appearances. The .173 ISO is right in line with his New York seasons despite the ballpark change and his walk rate is better than his final two seasons with the Bombers. He’s still hitting 45%+ ground balls; his flyball (as well as infield flyball) rates are mostly static.

Yet, his BABIP is down and not just a little. Abreu’s career BABIP is .343 and he’s never held a BABIP below .300 – heck, below .320 – during a full season. All of which is to say that seeing his BABIP hovering just above .290 is a new scene indeed. Matt Swartz of Baseball Prospectus fame asked Angels fans to jog their memory on who received the shift most often. Nobody mentioned Abreu and a handful agreed that few (if any) Angels see unkind treatment from the defense.

So, if Abreu isn’t being shifted, then what explains his .248 BABIP on balls hit to right field? Here are his BABIP to right field on an annual basis since 2002:

.257
.258
.339
.306
.372
.312
.290
.312
.248

Needless to point out, but this is his career low during that span. There is no shift in batted ball data to right field either. His groundball rates hold steadily above 60-65% throughout and even his line drive rates – say what you will about their accuracy or reliability – are mostly consistent as well. The only explanations I have are either that he’s just unlucky – which everyone hates as a reasoning but … — or that he’s hitting the ball differently, which is translating into easily fielded balls. That seems immeasurable (since what is an easily fielded ball objectively?), but that is all I can come up with.

The Houston Astros’ rotation is one of the best in baseball. This much is true. A top five rank in xFIP and FIP support the premise and a staff ERA in the top-half of the league does little to falsify it. Yes, that same rotation features Brett Myers, Wandy Rodriguez, J.A. Happ, Bud Norris, and Felipe Paulino. If their plan is to fingerprint and lock up any doubters like twin Foxes then so far everything is going on schedule.

Myers leads the team in innings pitched and while his 3.02 ERA is over his head, he must be considered one of the best offseason signings in the league. Rodriguez the mainstay of the group and Happ is the anti-Wandy. Norris and Paulino are products of the Astros’ system, with Norris being the breadwinner of the pair. Paulino is interesting in his own right, though, and that is whom I choose to focus on here.

Paulino’s stuff is majestic from the scope of a radar gun. His fastball averages 95.5 miles per hour and tops every starter in baseball that qualifies except Ubaldo Jimenez. Nevertheless, Paulino’s fastball holds a negative run value. This is startling for one reason in particular: Paulino is giving up a home run on less than 2% of his flyballs. That percentage is the clone on the other side of the mirror to his homer rate in 2009 which was out of this world ridiculous. The fastball run value being so horrid without balls clearing the fence is concerning.

Still, Paulino misses bats, gets a fair amount of grounders, and otherwise is pitching almost identical to his 2009 stats. The gopher ball is the difference between his FIP (3.24, down from 5.11) and why his xFIP has jumped. I do not think Paulino is a true talent five-run average pitcher. Instead – and perhaps sheepishly – I would expect him to be somewhere in the middle of those two xFIP. That’s mighty fine for a back-end starter in the National League Central.

Neil Walker is only 24-years-old but has the prospect life of someone a few years his senior. Baseball America featured the 11th overall pick of the 2004 draft on four consecutive top 100 lists between 2005 and 2008. Walker peaked at 43 and fell off entering the 2009 season. During that stretch, Walker changed positions – from catching to third base – before ultimately finding a position that would lock him into the Buccos’ everyday lineup.

Though it is important to keep in mind how little time Walker has spent at the keystone, the defensive reports on Walker have not been encouraging to date. None of our fielding metrics are particularly kind to his play at second base this season and it seems the only area in which he’s excelled is turning the double play. One would suspect that Walker’s play would improve with experience, although Skip Schumaker is proof that sometimes that is not the case.

Walker’s defensive struggles would be immaterial if his bat were equally poor. Instead, Walker’s offensive production looks like an uplifting calypso tune on an otherwise scratched record. The .364 wOBA looks good, indeed, and Walker’s slash line is strong amongst second basemen. The walk rate (5.6%) and strikeout rate (21.3%) represent the incorrectly named Walker’s pitfalls.

Walker has the second best on-base percentage amongst players with a walk-to-strikeout ratio under 0.35, trailing only Carlos Gonzalez. In order to succeed with that skill set, a player has to either hit for a lot of power or hit for a high average. Walker is doing a bit of either so far with his average being propped by a .372 batting average on balls in play. Can Walker sustain that heading forward? Maybe, but betting on it seems like an unsafe proposition.

That’s not to say Walker cannot grow and mature into a fine offensive second baseman. It’s just to say he’s probably not one of the elite hitters at the position heading forward unless the BABIP proves sustainable.

The seventh inning of the Rockies/Phillies affair takes the crown even on a night with a normal schedule.

Joe Beimel opened the inning on the mound facing Placido Polanco with a 7-3 lead in hand. The sequence of events from there until Beimel’s exit included a Polanco double, Chase Utley scoring, and then Ryan Howard hitting a homer. Just like that, the lead was down to one. Jim Tracy turned to the newest toy in his bullpen collection. So entered the flame-slinging Manny Delcarmen just acquired from Boston. Most of Delcarmen’s issues in Boston this season came because of a sharp increase in gopherballs allowed. Given his walk rates, allowing homers is not a smart plan if he wants a lengthy career in the majors.

For his opening act, Delcarmen gave up a homer to Jayson Werth. He was not done, though, as the Phillies then went on a singles parade that saw Shane Victorino, Brian Schneider, and Ben Francisco sending baseballs across the field like beads. By now, Polanco stood in the on-deck circle with Jimmy Rollins due up. Tracy again came out and this time inserted Matt Reynolds.

An appropriate accompanying instrumental to a short ditty about Reynolds’ appearance would be the Jaws theme with slowly ascending volume. Rollins would single off Reynolds, loading the bases for Utley with two outs in a one run game. These are the moments situational lefties who love to flirt with danger love. If Reynolds were one of those who likes to cuddle with a Russian chick named Roulette then what Utley did to the baseball on his 3-1 pitch has probably scared him straight. To Reynolds’ credit, he did retire Howard quickly, keeping the damage at 7-12 and ending the nine run Phillies’ outburst.

Things were just getting started after the stretch ended and the Rockies’ reassumed their position as orchestrators. Seth Smith waved the wand and led things off with a double and scoring on a Jonathan Herrera single. Eric Young Jr. would then double, placing two runners in scoring position with one out. Dexter Fowler’s single plated both and the score would stand at 10-12 through seven.

All told, the seventh inning saw 11 runs score, three homers, 10 balls in play hits, and a swing from the Rockies holding a 89% win expectancy down to 4.7% and back up to 25.1% before dripping back down to 15.4%. The four pitchers who contributed to the inning each held negative Win Probability Added scores. Delcarmen (-.389), Beimel (-.254), and Reynolds (-.237) for Colorado and Philadelphia’s Chad Durbin (-.109). That adds up to -.989, or about an entire win from four of the 14 pitchers used last night.

Don Cooper is one of the game’s best pitching coaches in part because of how quickly he can teach and encourage pitchers to use the cutter. Countless White Sox pitchers have become benefactors of the pitch, including John Danks, who has quickly morphed into one of the finest pitchers in the American League. It should be no surprise that the White Sox’s biggest trade deadline acquisition – Edwin Jackson – is already showing signs of possibly throwing a cutter despite still being fresh-faced to the team.

For those unaware, Jackson has made five starts for the Pale Hose. Racking up over seven innings per start (on average) and posting a 5.63 K/BB ratio. That’s more than double Jackson’s previous career best ratio. Now, it is only 36 innings, and lots can happen in such a small sample size. My statement is not just based on that success, but also the pitch data coming in from Jackson’s brief time in the Southside.

Baseball Info Solutions’ data has Jackson’s fastball moving from 94 MPH to 95.4 MPH, his curve gaining about a mile per hour, and his change doing the same. His slider, though, has not only increased in usage, but also jumped nearly 3 MPH. That didn’t quite feel right, so I went to the pitchfx data to see if there’s been any change in movement on the slider. Here’s what I found:

4/6-8/1: 21.8% usage, 85 MPH, 1.43 vertical movement, 1.24 horizontal moment, 20.8% whiff

8/4-9/1: 27.6% usage, 87.9 MPH, 2.75 vertical movement, 0.16 horizontal movement, 30.6% whiff

That’s not definitive or anything, however everything points to something. Whether it be a new grip or arm slot or just random coincidence, I don’t know for sure. Admittedly some of this an inherent bias thinking that Cooper would quickly latch onto Jackson and morph his arsenal a bit with the addition of a cutter, but the data seems to support that a bit. We’ll see how it works out and whether Jackson will be the newest member of the Don Cooper fan club.

Jason Kendall is out for the next eight-to-ten months as he’ll require shoulder surgery. Not just a snarky Royals fan’s latest joke, but a reality.

Playing Kendall virtually every day likely did not help his body. Catchers do not age well, and asking a 36-year-old to catch nearly 90% of the innings played is a bit much. But you know what? Kendall caught 91% two seasons ago, and was over 80% last season too. The high percentage of games caught by Kendall is not a defense of using him that much, not at all. My issue is the original contract itself calling for two years. I won’t rehash that argument either.

Instead, I’d like to pay tribute to Kendall’s career if this winds up being the last time we see him in the majors. For a string of years Kendall was one of the best hitting catchers around. Here are his run values (park-adjusted too) from 1997 through 2000:

17.3
33.5
22.8
27.4

From there, things go downhill a bit, although he managed a string of decent seasons with the Pirates and Athletics that lasted until the mid-2000s and included two near-five win seasons. Between that 97-00 period, Kendall was amongst baseball’s more underrated players, such is the price one has to pay when playing for a perennial cellar dweller.

Only recently (well, 2007) did Kendall become a bit of a laughing stock offensively. He has posted four of his five worst offensive seasons the last four years, which is not a sweet or charming end to a career, and neither is the injury route. It’s a shame that his career might end like this, but he’s had a long and ultimately fan-fulfilling career.

Yesterday I wrote about how Yovani Gallardo’s season had slipped through the cracks. Tonight is Brian McCann’s time for shine; apologies in advance to Braves’ fans if Brian McCann decides to pitch tonight and gives up eight runs.

McCann has the unfortunate coincidence of playing (and catching) during the same period as Joe Mauer. Nevertheless, McCann is a single home run shy of his third consecutive 20-plus home run season. His consistency goes beyond that streak, though, as his home run totals since becoming a permanent fixture in the starting lineup are as follows: 24, 18, 23, 21, and of course 19. Even better, McCann’s walk rates have been mostly static over that period: 8.3%, 6.3%, 9.9%, 8.9%, and now 13.4%.His ISO is consistent, too: .240, .183, .222, .205, and .203.

I do not know the standard deviation for the average player on a year-to-year basis in those statistics, but my perception is that McCann is probably more consistent than a decent number of individuals. My perception of how impressive this would be is enhanced by him catching, where nicks and bruises are a byproduct of such a tedious lifestyle choice.

Whether McCann really is in the top 10% (or whatever percentage one desires to place him within) for “consistency” or not is irrelevant. He just doesn’t have a huge blow-up season like Mauer, and I wonder if that hurts him when it comes to being recognized as the second best catcher in baseball. It’s the Albert Pujols’ syndrome. He’s so good annually that sometimes we take the performances for granted.

McCann’s season is a perfect example. He has 4.9 WAR right now, last season he had 4.2, and his previous career high is 5.7. He will not reach six wins, but he is almost certain to top five for the third time in his career. He somehow has a higher wOBA than players like Evan Longoria, David Ortiz, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, and so on … and he’s a catcher. That fact really cannot be ignored. Yet we’ve only had three posts on him since January and none talked up his performance. And, really, if he hasn’t been covered by this staff, then he’s definitely flying under some radars.