Yovani Gallardo is one of four National League starting pitchers with a sub-3 FIP and yet only three posts have included him this season. Two April posts on his extension and fantasy availability and then Gallardo’s entry into the Trade Value series. Otherwise, Gallardo’s season is one of the fertile patches around these parts thanks to Jack Moore’s tears cried from neglect.

Workload appears to be the reason Gallardo’s name is absent from the best pitching season talk. He missed time with an oblique injury, limiting his innings total to 149 innings. Most of Gallardo’s company is at 180 innings and rising, making Gallardo’s innings supply appear bare. Still, 2010 is an impressive season. Gallardo is the same age as that Felix Hernandez guy and his FIP this season (and for his career) is comparable to the King.

Now, Gallardo has something like 640 innings fewer than Hernandez and his ability to get groundballs and limit walks is clearly trailing Hernandez’s, but that he can stand next to Hernandez and not look like a complete second-class citizen is a compliment. The hierarchy effect does come into play when comparing Gallardo to his slumdog rotation mates. While Gallardo himself has accrued 3.9 WAR, the sum of the next five pitchers with the highest starts total (Wolf, Bush, Narveson, Parra, and Davis) is 1.1. You can triple that and Gallardo still wins.

Gallardo’s fastball is a fine pitch that sits in the low-90s. It does not miss bats as often as one would expect, however, Gallardo supplements that aspect with precision. The true seductresses in his arsenal are his breaking pitches. A delightful pair, indeed, which tempt but rarely fulfills batters’ need for contact. Both pitches have a whiff rate over 10%, leading the rest of the Gallardo’s pack.

The smudge on Gallardo’s Mona Lisa is simply durability. Simply not because durability is the easiest thing in the world to alter or fix – just ask the last great starting pitcher the Brewers’ system produced – but in the sense that the number of issues with his play is one. To compete next year, Milwaukee needs insurance, not just from Lloyd’s of London, but also in the form of an upgraded rotation in order to complement their young ace. They also might need a spotlight to ensure Gallardo gets the shine he deserves.

Throw on your guessing caps and then write down the top five in batter BB/K ratio this season. Albert Pujols and Joe Mauer are layups. Aubrey Huff is a shocker and Daric Barton is the black beauty amongst the group, but none of those four leads the league. Nope, that honor goes to Jeff Keppinger as the 30-year-old’s 1.38 ratio nary edges out Pujols’ 1.30.

Keppinger’s wOBA is at .331, above league average, and he should very well surpass his previous career best – an insane 2.2 figure from 2007 that he racked up in 276 plate appearances. Not too bad for someone whose career transactions include being traded in the Kris Benson to New York deal as well as in separate deals for Ruben Gotay, Russ Haltiwanger, and Drew Sutton.

Sometimes I wonder if we’ve become so prone to looking at walk rates and isolated slugging ability that we forget about contact skills entirely. Not that one group of players has more value than the other on a wide-scale basis, obviously, it varies case-by-case, but a guy like Keppinger is flying under the radar because he doesn’t hit for much power nor does he get on base an insane amount of time. He does make a lot of contact, though, and that is a good attribute to have.

Keppinger also has one of the more, uh, interesting and vulgar sponsorships going at Baseball-Reference. Really, just check it out for yourself. Keppinger brings out the passion in folks.

With playoff rosters being set tomorrow night, don’t be surprised if the Rays place J.P. Howell – out for the season following shoulder surgery – on their roster with intent to replace him at a later date. Keep an eye out in particular for Jake McGee to fill that vacancy.

The team set a precedent in 2008 using the disabled list trick to eventually place David Price on the playoff roster. He would come out of the bullpen in the postseason and recorded the final out in the American League Championship series. McGee, like Price, is a hard-throwing southpaw, but one whose future is likely within the same role. McGee’s secondary stuff is not as polished as Price’s was in 2008 and he has an elbow zipper to boot.

In 88 innings for Double-A Montgomery, McGee struck out more than one batter per inning and held a 2.53 FIP. The Rays promoted him to Durham, where he’s appeared in eight games (seven as a reliever) and he has continued striking out more than one batter per inning, but he has dropped his walk rate to fewer than one free pass per nine innings pitched. Obviously those ratios are skewed given the small sample sizes associated, but McGee looks major league ready.

Ostensibly, the rest of the bullpen would remain steady, with Andy Sonnanstine and Lance Cormier likely moving aside as Jeremy Hellickson and Grant Balfour join the ranks. Wade Davis could also find himself on the inactive list for at least the first round of the playoffs, giving the Rays the chance to carry 12 pitchers like normal with four being starters. Whatever the combination, the Rays’ pen has been a strength all season and could be even better over the rest of the season.

Honest self-evaluation is difficult. For a general manager like Ned Colletti that task is complicated further by exterior forces. If Colletti incorrectly evaluates his team’s chances at making the playoffs he has to answer to a testy owner and media alike. As it turns out, that seems only to be an issue when the general manager sells off and admits his team was never heading to the postseason at that point in time. With Collettti, he won’t admit it. At least not explicitly.

Placing players like Manny Ramirez on waivers is at least implicitly accepting the Dodgers’ post-season fate. Yet here is what Colletti told Bob Nightengale earlier today:

BNightengale GM Ned Colletti on moving trading Manny Ramirez: “Not inclined to move anyone so long as we have a chance.”

Colletti is correct in saying the Dodgers still have a chance. In the truest sense, the Dodgers still have a chance. Baseball Prospectus puts those chances at 3.5%. The two teams with the most similar playoff probabilities to the Dodgers are the Florida Marlins and Oakland Athletics. Now, economic differences and all, the Marlins sold on Jorge Cantu and let Cody Ross walk without return. The Athletics did not sell, but they did not buy either. The Dodgers did buy on Scott Podsednik, Octavio Dotel, Ted Lilly, Ryan Theriot, and they also claimed Rod Barajas.

It doesn’t even take a fancy simulation to realize how unlikely the Dodgers reaching the playoffs really is. The National League West top four looks like this:

SDP 76-50
SFG 71-57
COL 66-60
LAD 66-62

That puts the teams’ winning percentages and games remaining totals at:

SDP 60.3%, 36
SFG 55.4%, 34
COL 52.4%, 36
LAD 51.6%, 34

Assume every other team in the division plays 10% worse the rest of the way than they have to date, meaning San Diego plays like a .500 team, Colorado like a .420 team, and so on. Then the Dodgers have to play at a rate above .800 to match the Padres and a rate above .600 to finish in second place. That’s one hell of a hypothetical to be encouraged about your tournament hopes.

Ramirez is a free agent in few weeks, meaning if the White Sox are willing to offer value that exceeds the potential compensatory picks – frankly, I’m not sure the Dodgers can afford to offer Ramirez arbitration – then Colletti and crew should happily ship Ramirez and his drying eggs to the Midwest. The same thought should apply to Hiroki Kuroda and even Lilly. The Dodgers should have sold at the deadline (or at least, should not have bought) but they should be willing to amend that mistake if the opportunity arises.

Jordan Walden has thrown 40 pitches in the major leagues, 30 being fastballs, but one thing is evident: he throws really, really hard. How hard? Baseball Info Solutions has the average velocity at 98.9 miles per hour. If Walden qualified that would rank second only to Joel Zumaya’s 99.3 MPH heater. Back to Walden, though, he throws hard and he’s been a top prospect with the Angels for a few years now. Here’s what Marc Hulet penned about him in February:

Walden’s 5.25 ERA in ’09 was pretty ugly but he was hurt by a .377 BABIP and his FIP was just 3.77. Overall, he allowed 72 hits in 60.0 innings and made just 13 starts due to a forearm strain. The injury is worrisome (because it can lead to Tommy John surgery), but he appears healthy and ready to compete in 2010. He showed a pretty good strikeout rate in ’09 at 8.55 K/9 but his control was modest at 4.35 BB/9. He had a lot of troubles against left-handed hitters and posted a walk rate of 7.83 BB/9 against them in a smaller sample size. The right-hander has top-of-the-order stuff if he can harness it.

Hard-thrower with an ugly technique is usually another definition for “reliever” and the Angels decided to shift Walden to the bullpen permanently this season. Walden responded by striking out 38 in 43 Double-A innings and, while the walks were still there, you would have to think he can lower his total or at the very least leverage them better in shorter stints.

This is too early of a stage for anyone to decree whether Walden’s career will go the route of dominant closer or unsuccessful hype. The early returns do have him striking out three of his first 10 batters faced while only walking one, but … I mean, that’s 10 batters faced. That tells us virtually nothing. Even the velocity readings are skewed by small sample size. If that velocity does maintain Jeff Mathis will have to dust the ball for ashes before returning it to Walden.

After an impressive 2009 season in which Marco Scutaro held a .354 wOBA, he’s back to a modest .317, almost a perfect match for his career average. In other words: Scutaro is back to being Scutaro. Digging around his Baseball-Reference page leads me to ask this question: would you suspect that Scutaro strikes out more often looking or swinging?

I knew Scutaro is among the game’s premiere in-zone contact hitters. This year he’s at 97.3% and at 94.3% for his career, which suggests that Scutaro is unlikely to swing and miss often, but it can happen. As it turns out, though, Scutaro isn’t swinging and missing a lot for strike three at all. He actually leads the league in strikeouts looking (divided by total strikeouts) among batters with 300+ plate appearances. Not only that, but Scutaro is at 64% (he’s one of three players over 50% and the only one above 55%), which happens to be four standard deviations from the mean (24%).

The 64% figure would only be the second highest rate of Scutaro’s career, with 2007’s 65% finishing in first; in between, Scutaro posted rates of 51% and 60%. Suffice to say that Scutaro enjoys watching, which is probably not one of his endearing qualities. I wanted to see just what Scutaro is looking at and as such took his pitchfx data this season and plotted it like such:

I’m no Dave Allen, but I did add a little Paint to the image with those four lines. The points are not arbitrary, as the black lines indicate the edges of the plate and the red lines represent the half inch points. Anything that falls within the red is over the middle while anything outside the black is off the plate. Your eyes do not lie as most of Scutaro’s strike threes take place on the outside corner.

It seems to me those spots are going to make it hard for any batter to put a good swing on the pitch. As Scutaro seems to understand his own limitations at making contact, perhaps the high density of taken strikes is admittance that some of these pitches were simply placed in an unhittable position in the zone, even for the guy who hits everything in the zone.

To think, the Indians let Omar Vizquel walk because he was too old … in 2004. Snark met the White Sox’s decision to begin using the 43-year-old as the permanent third baseman in June and why would anyone expect otherwise? Vizquel’s glove still showed the ability to be an instrument of heroism, but his bat … well; his lumber played the role of dastardly villain.

Between the 2007-09 seasons, Vizquel raked in more than 1,000 plate appearances and batted .243/.301/.308. Vizquel seemed near the end in performance and chances alike as his games played total slipped from 145 to 92 and finally 62 games last season as Elvis Andrus’ caddy and surrogate grandfather.

Yawns (and some sighs) were prevalent to the audience through May. Vizquel had reached base 16 times in 55 plate appearances with two extra base hits. June brought with it a new wave of playing time for the ageless one as well as a pulse. A .278/.338/.389 line translates to a .329 wOBA, which is actually slightly above average this season. Vizquel blew up in July too, posting a 129 wRC+ thanks to a 1.33 BB/K ratio and a .385 BABIP.

August has resulted in a 98 wRC+ so far, which is closer to reality than either of those months, but this is Omar Vizquel for crying out loud. He posted a 129 wRC+. I know you can’t just add wRC+ seasons together to get an average or anything like that, but for trivial purposes, Vizquel’s 2009 and 2008 wRC+ sum is 117. His career wRC+ is 89. Right now, aged 43, as a full-time third baseman, he has a 93 wRC+.

An inflated BABIP relative to recent seasons suggests this comparative hot streak is unlikely to continue. Still, stories like this make baseball the spectacle it is. A man born within a decade of Alaska and Hawaii becoming states is having one of the finest offensive seasons of his career 21 years after first appearing on the scene. Only in baseball.

Alfonso Soriano hit a three-run home run last night out of the seventh spot in the lineup. If that last part did not make you say, “Huh?” then either you follow the Cubs or Soriano is on your fantasy team. As it turns out, Soriano had hit sixth most of the year for Lou Piniella, but since Mike Quade has taken over, the star left fielder has taken a demotion in the order. That isn’t the only difference between Quade’s lineups and those of Piniellia either. Here is the batting order from Quade’s first game at the helm:

2B Blake DeWitt
SS Starlin Castro
CF Marlon Byrd
3B Aramis Ramirez
1B Xavier Nady
RF Tyler Colvin
LF Alfonso Soriano
C Geovany Soto

Piniella had access to Dewitt for three weeks and never batted him higher than seventh, save for two exceptions. Quade has batted him leadoff in both of the games he has managed. The switch is a heck of a change in fortune for Dewitt and a peculiar – not necessarily right or wrong, but peculiar – change for a new manager to make, which led me to wonder: have other interim or new managers this season added a personal flare to the lineup cards immediately after becoming boss?

The answer is going to be subjective in each case because I did not do anything mathematical– i.e. weigh at-bats by lineup slot before and after – to arrive at the answer. My process might weaken the case but this is more trivial than serious. Here are the findings:

Arizona
In: Kirk Gibson
Out: A.J. Hinch

Mr. Gibson took over for the 80th game of the season. Up until then, Chris Young had not led off all season. Since, he’s led off every game but 10, with Stephen Drew leading off the last five. The only other significant and steady change has occurred lately with Kelly Johnson and Justin Upton switching spots, although that too has occurred only recently.

Baltimore
In: Juan Samuel, Buck Showalter
Out: Dan Trembley, Juan Samuel

Double points awarded to the Orioles for killing two birds with one show this season. Trembley met the axe after 54 games and Samuel after 51 more, leaving Showalter to manage the last 21. Samuel quickly moved Miguel Tejada from fourth in the lineup to second; a move that totally makes sense given Tejada’s proficiency in reaching base. With the exception of some new names, the only notable move is Showalter batting Nick Markakis second, something that started a few days before his arrival.

Florida
In: Edwin Rodriguez
Out: Fredi Gonzalez

Gonzalez hit the unemployed waters following game 70, and if he is following along, he would’ve noticed the same lineup most days until Chris Coghlan’s injury. Since then, Hanley Ramirez has moved to leadoff while Logan Morrison bats second and Gaby Sanchez third. Jorge Cantu’s departure meant Dan Uggla could beat cleanup. Cody Ross’s departure left Mike Stanton batting fifth.

Kansas City
In: Ned Yost
Out: Trey Hillman

Yost was toasted – get it? – and promoted after 35 games. Hillman’s final lineup included Scott Podsednik at the top and Jason Kendall at the bottom. At first, things looked like standard protocol for the Royals’ lineups, then, oh so suddenly, Yost batted Jason Kendall second once. And again a little over a week later. Then, Yost began batting Kendall second daily. From June 1 until Monday night, Kendall has batted second in all but nine games. Not the best of ideas considering one has to Photoshop Kendall on base in order for the image to exist.

In: Daren Brown
Out: Don Wakamatsu

The most recent of managerial firings (as opposed to retiring), Wakamatsu was given a pink slip after 112 games. Brown has not messed with the top of the order, leaving Ichiro Suzuki and Chone Figgins along, but moved Jose Lopez to third for a two-game span and then flipped to Russell Branyan, with Lopez batting cleanup instead. Brown’s biggest change is playing Matt Tuiasosopo as much as possible; he of a career .218 on-base percentage in 166 plate appearances and so-so Triple-A numbers.

I would classify Quade, Gibson, Samuel, and Hillman as making significant changes in the order with Brown on the verge. The more I think about it, the more it makes sense that new managers, particularly of the interim variety, shake things up. Managers being fired generally are not running the optimal lineup out there (that or the team is void of talent) which means the new manager’s job is to ghost-ride the whip until the offseason when an even newer manager is hired. So, what’s a tinker here or there hurt? Maybe it motivates the players, maybe it doesn’t. In the end, Brown and Quade aren’t risking their managerial futures by playing with the controls a little.

File this one under pointless acquisitions.

Brad Ausmus is one of the game’s worst hitters with a .225 wOBA and somehow A.J. Ellis has actually performed worse in more plate appearances. Ellis’ wOBA is .206 and his WRC+ is 24. The Dodgers do upgrade offensively as Rod Barajas is projected for a .289 wOBA the rest of the way, matching his current wOBA production.

The offensive upgrade is legitimate. Perhaps the goal is to make these final six weeks more enjoyable for the fan base. Intentions of Barajas being on either team’s playoff squad is misplaced. The Mets have about the same chances of making the postseason as the Dodgers and since Barajas is a free agent at year’s end, he doesn’t add any value beyond this season. As cruel as it may sound, the most valuable thing about Barajas might be his projected Type-B status. If the Dodgers offer arbitration and he declines, then finds another team willing to give him a major league deal, the Dodgers would net a sandwich pick.

There’s not much else to say from the Dodgers’ side besides that this deal looks better than the head-scratching Octavio Dotel move. One has to wonder what – if anything – this signals about the Dodgers’ thoughts on their playoff hopes. No simulations or projections required to realize that being 10 down with 38 games remaining is a rather impossible task.

Josh Thole has started most of the games at backstop for the Mets lately anyways, and since he is the best catcher mentioned in this piece, that should continue to be the plan. Credit the Mets for getting some cash in return, although it’s likely an inconsequential amount that nobody will remember in a month’s time.

Now back to baseball evens that will matter to the races.

To catch up on the rest of the series, check out parts one, two, and three.

We finally arrive at the much anticipated team analysis. At the end of this post I’m providing a download of the data, so instead of rambling on about each of the teams, I’m going to focus on the top three instead. This means the Braves, Red Sox, and Angels.

The Braves’ supremacy caught me off guard. In the book Scout’s Honor, the Moneyball method – which includes doing this very kind of thing – is all but treated as a syndrome of lepers. The Braves were doing the draft pick shuffle before the Athletics ever did, though, and it shows in acquisitions throughout the decade-plus covered.

Their 12 picks average about 30% of their playing time with Atlanta. The most egregious situations involve Jose Hernandez (8%), Andy Ashby (6%), and Steve Karsay (10%). Lifers like Tom Glavine and Rafael Furcal improve the Braves’ overall standing, but how crafty does gaining picks from Kyle Farnsworth, Ron Mahay, and Danys Baez appear?

Boston may have topped Oakland as the team that most notoriously games the system. This isn’t too new of a development though. From Billy Wagner to Eric Gagne to Cliff Floyd – covered in Moneyball – the Red Sox go blow-for-blow with the Athletics’ collection that includes Damian Miller and Ray Durham. Oakland’s average is boosted by lifers like Jason Giambi, Barry Zito, and Miguel Tejada too.

The Angels’ placement actually did surprise me. They seem to do things “the right way” often as four of their 10 players were lifers until moving on. Mark Teixeira is their low tide mark and clearly the intent behind acquiring him had more to do with playoff dreams than draft picks.

Anyways, check out the complete data by clicking here.